Buck Brief - We Are Being Lied to About the Russia-Ukraine War

Summary

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: Buck Brief – We Are Being Lied to About the Russia-Ukraine War
Date: August 20, 2025
Host: Buck Sexton
Guest: Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies

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Overview

This episode features Buck Sexton in conversation with Bill Roggio, an expert on military conflicts and editor at Long War Journal. The central theme is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, with a focus on misinformation regarding battlefield realities, casualty figures, and the prospects for either Ukrainian military success or a negotiated peace. Roggio provides a sobering assessment of the war’s trajectory, Ukrainian and Russian strengths and weaknesses, and the possible role of a Trump-led diplomatic effort, arguing that the Western public is not getting the full—and often not the accurate—picture of what’s happening on the ground.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current Status of the Russia-Ukraine War

[02:22 – 05:20]

• The Russian military makes small but consistent territorial gains, especially in Eastern Ukraine (Donbas region).
• Russia now controls almost all of Luhansk and about 60-70% of Donetsk.
• Ukrainian defenses have weakened due to difficulties rotating elite troops and limited manpower; Russia recently pushed into critical logistical areas but was stalled at a significant cost to Ukrainian resources.
• "The Russians are eating the Ukrainian cow one small bite at a time."
  — Bill Roggio [03:04]

2. Casualties, Attrition, and Propaganda

[05:20 – 07:55]

• Buck raises suspicions over widely cited casualty numbers, noting reports of "hundreds of thousands" killed or wounded may be inflated.
• Roggio agrees casualty figures are exaggerated by both sides, estimating perhaps "100,000 Russian dead" rather than the higher numbers often published.
  • He notes Russian society's historical willingness to absorb massive losses: "It’s their way of warfare." [07:55]

3. Numbers Game and Russia’s Strategic Advantages

[07:55 – 08:59]

• Russia’s population, conscription policies, and cultural approach to war make them less likely to be exhausted by attrition than Ukraine.
• Roggio underscores: "Putin knows that this is… a numbers game. And it’s a numbers game he’s inevitably going to win if he stays on this." [08:31]
• Russian recruitment and resupply are keeping pace with casualties, and the culture of sacrifice is deep-rooted.

4. What Would Ukraine Need to Reverse Its Fortunes?

[10:28 – 13:00]

• Roggio is blunt: "I don’t think that’s possible. I think the time has passed."
• The 2023 Ukrainian offensive, billed as its best chance, failed, and Western support is unlikely to be sufficient or arrive fast enough.
• Requisite improvements—massive air force expansion, advanced air defenses, replenished personnel, and hundreds of billions in assistance—are realistically out of reach.

5. Trench Warfare, Demographics, and Ukrainian Constraints

[11:52 – 13:14]

• Ukraine built elaborate multi-layer fortifications but lacks the manpower to staff them because of a refusal to lower the draft age below 25, citing demographic concerns:

  "If they start going after that population, they're going to have serious demographic issues after the war ends… But there may not be a Ukraine left if they don’t."
  — Bill Roggio [11:52]

6. Need for Ceasefire and Political Realism

[13:14 – 15:53]

• The host and guest agree things look bleak for Ukraine militarily; hence, Trump’s call for peace or a ceasefire reflects an understanding that the public narrative differs from battlefield reality.
• Roggio: "I think the Ukrainians need a ceasefire. They need to be able to get those troops... It’s just not sustainable." [13:14]
• Russia's aims go beyond territory—they seek government change and to turn Ukraine into a "vassal state" like Belarus.

7. Challenges in Negotiations and Sanctions

[15:53 – 19:33]

• Buck notes that much of the West, especially Europe, continues to buy Russian energy, blunting the effectiveness of sanctions and indirectly financing the Russian war effort.
• Roggio: "Europeans buy more in Russian petroleum products than they do donating to Ukraine yearly… They’re funding Russia’s war." [19:01]

8. Russia’s Industrial and Technological Edge

[19:47 – 22:09]

• Despite talk of isolation, Russia’s war economy is robust. Its industrial capacity—especially drone and defense tech—is accelerating, outpacing Ukraine’s efforts.

• Roggio: "They've actually outpaced the Ukrainians in drone production now and employment and the technology for it. They've innovated in these areas." [20:14]

• Buck and Roggio warn that this war is a "laboratory" for future warfare. The U.S. and NATO may be underprepared given the technological leaps Russia is making on the battlefield.

  "I worry that this is a laboratory for what the warfare of the future is going to be like. And the Russians are getting quite a lesson."
  — Buck Sexton [20:33]

9. Outlook for Ceasefire/Possibility of Trump Diplomacy

[17:53 – 24:15]

• Roggio sees a ceasefire as possible, not a true peace agreement, and believes Trump’s team is still determining what Putin would accept.
  • "Putin… when he says he wants a peace deal, what he really wants is a surrender." [17:53]
• Realistically, Roggio expects continued fighting for at least 6-12 more months:

  "I think in the next six months, you’ll just see a continuation of fighting. And I think you’ll see these small gains by the Russians… until they’re in a position to take what they want via a so-called peace agreement."
  — Bill Roggio [23:10]

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Notable Quotes

• On Russian Progress:
  "The Russians are eating the Ukrainian cow one small bite at a time."
  — Bill Roggio [03:04]

• On Troop Attrition:
  "It’s their way of warfare. It always has been."
  — Bill Roggio [07:55]

• On Numbers Game:
  "Putin knows that this is… a numbers game. And it’s a numbers game he's inevitably going to win if he stays on this."
  — Buck Sexton [08:31]

• On Ukraine's Prospects:
  "I don't think that's possible. I think the time has passed. The 2023 offensive... was a complete failure. That was the high point... The Russians would have to make such monumental mistakes..."
  — Bill Roggio [10:28]

• On Demographics and Manpower:
  "If they start going after that population, they're going to have serious demographic issues after the war ends… But there may not be a Ukraine left if they don’t."
  — Bill Roggio [11:52]

• On Sanctions and Energy:
  "Europeans buy more in Russian petroleum products than they do donating to Ukraine yearly… They’re funding Russia’s war."
  — Bill Roggio [19:01]

• On Future Warfare Lessons:
  "I worry that this is a laboratory for what the warfare of the future is going to be like. And the Russians are getting quite a lesson."
  — Buck Sexton [20:33]

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Major Timestamps

• War status update: [02:22–05:20]
• Discussion of casualties: [05:20–07:55]
• Attrition and Russian strategy: [07:55–08:59]
• Prospects for Ukrainian counterattack: [10:28–13:00]
• Demographics and Ukrainian manpower: [11:52–13:14]
• Need for ceasefire: [13:14–15:53]
• Sanctions & Western policy flaw: [19:01–19:33]
• Russia’s technological advances: [20:14–22:09]
• Diplomatic endgame scenarios: [17:53–24:15]

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Takeaway

Bill Roggio provides a grim but clear-eyed analysis: the war is a grinding numbers game that Russia is poised to win unless Ukraine receives an unprecedented infusion of support, which appears unlikely. The Western narrative on casualties, Ukrainian prospects, and Russian capability is often misleading or wishful. Roggio argues that only a ceasefire can prevent Ukraine’s further slow-motion dismemberment, though any real peace deal would likely demand Ukrainian concessions well beyond territory—potentially even basic sovereignty. Russian innovation in drone warfare and military technology may outpace Western adaptation, setting the stage for new frontiers in modern conflict.

Trump-led diplomacy is seen as pragmatic, reflecting these realities, but even with direct talks, the momentum remains with Moscow, whose war aims are maximalist and whose capacity for sacrifice far exceeds Western expectations.

Transcript

[Bill Roggio]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Bill Roggio]

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[Buck Sexton]

Is Trump on the brink of helping to bring an end to the war in Ukraine? It is certainly something that we're rooting for and we will talk to our friend Bill Rogio about it now. He's a senior fellow at the foundation for Defense of Democracies. You Know him from Long War Journal. He gets deep into this stuff, deep into the weeds of conflicts abroad. Bill, let's start with this. Can you just give me. And we got a few minutes here to do this. What is the status of the conflict right now? It's still ongoing, right? No ceasefire, so you still have both sides shooting at each other. Where do we find ourselves as we look over the battlefield in Ukraine? What is the status quo?

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah, hello, Buck. And the status is, is that the war continues. The Russians are eating the Ukrainian cow one small bite at a time. The. The Russians are making small gains daily, but these gains add up in the Donbass region, which is made up primarily of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast in. In Eastern Ukraine. The Russians control nearly all of luhansk, and about 60 to 60 to 70% of the Donbas remaining are two large cities of Sloviansk and Kramtorsk. And then there's several smaller cities. The Russians are surrounding one city that used to be the key logistical hub for Ukrainian forces. The city's called Poprosk. And the Russians recently made a small breakthrough north of that city that could have put the Russian troops into the rear of the cities of Kramtorsk and Sloviansk. The Ukrainians were able to blunt that offensive, but it's come at a cost, and that cost is that they stripped elite units from their positions along the front to stop the Russians, and that fighting's still ongoing. That outcome has still not been decided. But apparently now the Russians, at least their advance has been halted. And now the Russians are advancing in other areas, cities like Seversk and Costina. Tanika. These cities are, you know, Russians are preparing to surround both of those cities at this time. You know, a lot of this is both, Buck. This is a war of both attrition and territory. So the. The Russians are certainly winning the war of attrition. Ukrainians were able to make that small breakthrough because some of these positions along the front line, the trenches and fortifications, a lot of them were unmanned. The Ukrainians thought they could fill those. Fill those holes with drones, and Russians have come up with creative ways to get around that. And that's. But it's as far as the war territory, as I said at the opening, the Russians are taking small bits and pieces of.

[Buck Sexton]

Can I ask you about the attrition part of this? Because I'm curious. I've heard, and this was even when I was at the White House speaking to some of Trump's national security officials back in June. The Numbers for the losses here. And I know casualties. Right. People usually including fatalities and wounded in that. But the numbers that they're telling me are in the hundreds of thousands at this point. Of soldiers. Right. That's what, that's what the casualty figures are looking like. Does Russian manpower. Is Russian manpower being depleted at a level where it is uncertain they could continue this level of offensive against the Ukrainian defensive positions? Or are there just so many Russians and so much conscription that they could keep doing this for. For years?

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah. The Russians have a population four times of that of Ukraine. They've shown a willingness to sacrifice forces. Now, I dispute those numbers that we're seeing. Most of these numbers come from the Ukrainians themselves, which have been inflating casualties since the beginning of the war. We're seeing something like 20,000 Russians killed monthly is some of the reporting. I, I'm highly suspicious.

[Buck Sexton]

Let's dig into this.

[Bill Roggio]

That might be casual.

[Buck Sexton]

You know, you've looked at, and you're. I know you were a long word journal. You've been a gwat guy. You serve the military yourself, you know, so you, you understand the casualty figures, the situation of, of how this stuff gets tabulated. What do you think is really, what do you think the casualty numbers really are? I mean, if somebody said to you, I really need to know if Trump sat down and said, look, how many Russians do you think have been killed in this conflict in three years? Talking soldiers now, not civilians, and how many. Well, that would not really affect Russian civilians, but. And how many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in three years? What do you think is a realistic number?

[Bill Roggio]

I mean, that's really difficult to. There's so much misinformation and disinformation put out largely on the Russian side of the casualties, largely by the Ukrainians and, you know, have those numbers maybe a quarter. So perhaps a hundred thousand Russian dead.

[Buck Sexton]

Because this is what I was, this is what I'm trying to get at. If the Russians have lost three or 400,000 people, I mean, truly, like either killed or combat ineffective, forever, you know, wounded severely, they, even the Russians can't keep that up for four years ahead. Right. I mean, if they had lost a half a million people already in the fighting, which is one of the numbers I've heard, they're going to run out of people pretty, pretty, you know, soon. It sounds to me like you're saying, no, they've lost a much lesser number than that, and so this can continue much longer.

[Bill Roggio]

Look, even if they were taking that number of casualties, I just, look at what the amount of casualties the Russians took in World War II. I mean, 6 million Russians are estimated to have been killed. How many millions were captured by the Germans during the war as well? It's their way of warfare. It has been, it always has been their way of warfare. So could we take those level of casualties? Absolutely not. Buck can the Ukrainians take those level of casualties? I think they have been and so have the Russians. But again, I think even so, look, I would say even if that this.

[Buck Sexton]

Is important too, because you're telling me, you're telling me, Bill, that Putin knows that this is in the most grim, macabre fashion, it's a numbers game. And it's a numbers game that he's inevitably going to win if he stays on this.

[Bill Roggio]

It's exactly correct, Buck. Yeah, he, this is a game he has calculated. The Russians are recruiting far more people now, but it's working and they're going to the front. It's a different culture. It's a different way of life, sacrifice and hardship for the Russians.

[Buck Sexton]

Let's get around then to the other side because so the Russian will to continue the fight and that's critical. And you've put out there why I have to give a moment to our sponsor here. But I want to come back and ask you, Bill, how could Ukraine what would be required, not what will happen. Right. But just theoretically, take me through an order of battle of what would be necessary to for Ukraine to really turn the tide right. In a meaningful way. What would be some of those things? Let's get to that in one second. You know, preborn is in a league of its own. This is a nonprofit that saved the lives of tens of thousands of babies last year and will save the lives of tens of thousands of babies this year. The team of people working at Preborn provide pregnant moms with offers of support and assistance. They've also found that offering the gift of an ultrasound can make all the difference. An ultrasound from preborn is just $28. That's per ultrasound. So if you can donate $28 or $280, that would be 10 ultrasounds. You can be saving the lives of tiny babies today because preborn is on the front lines of life. To donate, securely dial £250 and say the keyword baby. That's £250. Save baby or go to preborn.com buck preborn.com buck all right, now, now take me through because I think this is important. We'll get into the diplomacy and negotiations here in a few Minutes, Bill. But what would actually have to happen for Ukraine to be able to hold the line and inflict Russian casualties at such a rate that Russia wouldn't be in a position to keep chipping away and eating more of Ukraine's territory?

[Bill Roggio]

I don't think that's possible. I think the time has passed. The best chance the Ukrainians had when they were given the weapons and material in the 2023 offensive, which we all watched, was a complete failure. That was the high point in my estimation of the Ukrainian military. The Russians would have to make such monumental mistakes for the Ukrainians to be able to. Now Buck, are you talking about what can drive the Russians out of or get the Ukraine on the offensive?

[Buck Sexton]

I mean what could force a true stalemate so that, you know, because I think people have right. So that Putin thinks ok, I've gotten as much as I can get, you know, under the current realities. Is that achievable? No, no. Kicking all the Russians out. I don't think that's achievable at all. I mean because right now you still have the Russians thinking or Putin's thinking we're going to keep, you said taking bites of the cookie or the apple or whatever. We're going to keep taking little pieces of territory. Is it possible that the Ukrainians with what better air cover, better air defense, just more personnel, they'd be able to say we actually because they're building these really elaborate trench networks now, right? Six layer trench networks. They get the barbed wire, they get minefields, they get anti tank, they get anti personnel. I mean it's going all the way back. Do you think that they'll be able to hold them or are the Russians just going to keep coming? Because I think that's a critical calculation that affects the diplomatic side of this.

[Bill Roggio]

Well, they would need to be able to man those fortifications, one which they want. The Ukrainians refuse to lower the draft age below 25 because of a demographic issue. They recognize that if they start going after that population that they're going to have serious demographic issues after the war ends. But the other side of that argument is there may not be a Ukraine left or a viable Ukraine left if they don't begin the draft. So that's again that's how the Russians are able to penetrate and take land because the Ukrainians can't man all these fortifications that they built. They would need such a massive influx of artillery systems and long and short range drones and other air force. They would need a massive air force. They'd need to be able to suppress the Russian air force not at. Just at the line of contact, but far beyond it. So that would require a massive number of air defense units that would have to be deployed forward. Again, they the time to receive that equipment, that's passed. I don't think the United States is going to supply it. I don't think the, you know, talking hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars.

[Buck Sexton]

Well, you're somewhat bleak, if I can characterize it that way. You're somewhat bleak analysis of the Ukraine, Ukrainian military's prospects, Bill, I think is reflected very much in the Russian and Putin's attitude about all of this.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah. And also I think reflects President Trump's desire to get a peace deal because I do think the administration does understand that things aren't going as well for the Ukrainians as is being told. Look, I think the Ukrainians need a ceasefire. They need to be able to get those troops. Troops are not being rotated off the line for months and months at a time. Some guys have been serving on the front lines in and out since the beginning of this conflict, even before this conflict began. It's just not sustainable. Putin certainly believes that he could grind down the Ukrainians. That's what I'm watching him do now. It's not simple. It's not something that the Russians can do today, tomorrow, or even next month. But I look at this in the term of what does it look like six months or one year or two years from now, if the Russians are committed to maintaining this level of fighting, which I believe they can do, this does not bode well for Ukraine. They could. You know, the question is, is, is Ukraine going to have to make some type of land concession or are they just going to let the Russians take it over time? I don't like any of this, Buck, to be clear, I'm not sitting here saying that the Ukrainians should cede territory that the Russians haven't taken. Ukrainians need to be looking for creative ways to get a ceasefire so they could.

[Buck Sexton]

You're looking at the data and the maps and everything every day, and I think so many people, including, you know, speaking just from a sort of generalist media perspective, we come in and come out on this issue, and even though I've been very skeptical for years, you know, I said when the first invasion happened, people are underestimating the Russian from the very beginning. They're under underestimating the Russian war machine. They're underestimating the casualties, which we were just talking about, that Russia is willing to take, whether it's you know, 50,000 or 500,000. I mean, they're, they're underestimating the Russians willingness to stay in this fight, even if casualties get to really grotesque levels, and that it's going to cost America the better part of a trillion dollars before this thing is done. If we're really the financial backers of all this, OK, we're at 300 billion now. Not quite. We're getting. We're going to be at a half. A half a trillion for sure. And that's even if I think things start to slow down a bit. But I'm, I'm just. It's interesting to me, Bill, because there seems to be such surprise. Why can't a deal. Why is it so hard to get a deal done? And the most people seem to think, oh, it's because of the negotiation over the land. I want, you know, Zelensky wants this, Putin wants that. This is what's fair. If Putin thinks he's gonna get even more by continuing the fight. He wants to continue the fight. That's the, that's the real problem.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah, it is. And he wants more than just land, too, to be clear, Buck, he wants, you know, a change in government. He want, wants to ensure that there isn't NATO forces or Western forces based in Ukraine. He wants basically Ukraine to be a vassal state, to be a country like Belarus that could be controlled. And Ukrainians aren't willing to do that, nor should they be willing to do that. You know, it's, it's a conundrum, It's a catch 22 for the Ukrainians. How do they get this ceasefire? How do they get this deal without conceding at. Look, at the very least, the, The Russians are never going to hand over any of the land that they've grabbed so far. And it's been significant. Over 20% of Ukrainian territory has been taken by the Russians. So that's not going to happen. But there has to be ways. You know, this is where I'm looking at these, these talks, and I think it's a positive thing. I think Trump's doing the right thing and making an effort.

[Buck Sexton]

Can we, can we, can we pause on where the talks go for one second? I want to dive into that with our. Our next segment, if you will, here. But first, our sponsors Endpoint lockdown. There's a risk you take every time you go online, every time you log into your bank account, all that stuff. Surveillance software called the keylogger. They can secretly record keystrokes typed on a computer or a mobile device. Just like yours. And that happens before any encryption kicks in. That's why you need Endpoint Lock, the ultimate keystroke encryption tool that stops keyloggers dead in their tracks. With military grade 256 bit encryption, endpoint Lock protects your passwords, emails and sensitive data right at the source. Your keyboard work silently in the background. No pop ups, no hassle, just powerful protection across all your devices. It's impossible to steal what can't be seen. Visit endpoint lock consumer.com today that's endpoint lock consumer.com endpoint lock where privacy begins. All right, now, Bill, let's talk the process here with a focus on what you think Trump can realistically achieve and how.

[Bill Roggio]

I think what could there. It's possible to get a ceasefire that is not a peace agreement that will settle this war. But I do think it could be possible to get a ceasefire. The thing that these talks will help do, I think the Trump administration is still figuring out what Putin wants and what Putin doesn't want. And that is the one reason why these talks are positive. What is. But Putin doesn't want a ceasefire. He wants, basically, when he says he wants a peace deal, what he really wants is a surrender. This is why he's saying he won't meet Zelensky until the peace deal is on the table, which would be basically, come and sign your, your agreement to surrender because he believes he has all the cards. Look, there are some cards that the west plays with. Sanctions, additional sanctions. I mean, it'd be really nice if the Europeans stopped buying, you know, over.

[Buck Sexton]

Well, this is what I was talking about on radio the other day. I said, people who are saying, oh, the sanctions, the sanctions, Europeans are still buying. I mean, it's a fraction of what it was. But on the oil side, but on the natural gas side, they're still buying a ton of Russian natural gas. It's cold and Dusseldorf in the wintertime.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah, I mean, that's if, if the west is serious. I mean, I saw that. I wasn't able to confirm this, but it sounds right that the, the Europeans buy more in Russian petroleum, petroleum products, than they do donating to Ukraine yearly. That's no, you know, they're. So basically they're funding a war. They're funding Russia's war. How? This is no way to fight a war. This is no way to be a real true ally. So these things need to be resolved. If they can be resolved, maybe additional pressure could be placed on.

[Buck Sexton]

The other thing is these countries, as I understand it, the countries that we're told are stepping in, you know, China and Iran and India and that are buying, you know, Russian oil because they don't care. Some of them are selling it back to the Europeans.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah.

[Buck Sexton]

So they're really just in a middleman position. The whole thing is so screwed up. We're led to believe, oh, Russia is this isolated power. Does Russia look like the ruble has plunged, you know, 80% and that the people can't get food in the streets? No. In fact, if anything, their industrial capacity seems to be, from what you can see on the front lines. Right. The industrial capacity seems to be improving and they're putting out more and better drones to use on those front lines than ever before.

[Bill Roggio]

No, that's absolutely correct. They've actually outpaced the Ukrainians in drone production now and employment and the technology for it. They've, they've innovated in these areas. This is one of the longer term concerns of mine. I know it's not something you ask, but the Russians are learning about modern warfare daily on the battlefield. It'll make them a more.

[Buck Sexton]

Well, this is, I was going to ask you about this. I worry that this is a laboratory for what the warfare of the future is going to be like. And the Russians are getting quite a lesson.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah. And you know, Buck, we learned all the wrong lessons during the war on terror. Right. Small wars, rules of engagement, fear of casualties. The Russians are doing the exact opposite.

[Buck Sexton]

I mean, the focus is, was on really the g. What era? Right. There was so much focus on, on human intelligence collection, CIA and stuff like that. And really elite infantry, Rangers, SEALs, you know, SF and all this, going after HVTs, high value targets, you know, in Iraq or Afghanistan. And that was for those conflicts. If you're talking about fighting against Russian military, that that stuff is all, you know, you can train some private to fly. It doesn't matter how good you are, how strong you are, how good a shot you are. If you got a drone swarm over your head and there are privates on the other side who are able to send these hunter killer drones after you to blow up right next to you, I mean, that's game over.

[Bill Roggio]

Yeah, absolutely. You know, and on that point, you know, I was watching, I saw this video released by the Marines and they were working on integrating drones into their units. And they're saying, and we're going to move forward with this in December. And I just stood there with my mouth agape and I'm like, what are you waiting for? As a matter of fact, why wasn't this done two Decembers ago. What war have you guys been watching? And this is a big concern of mine, that we're still fighting the last wars and we're not even caught up to understanding the nature of these wars. Yep, I completely agree with you, Buck.

[Buck Sexton]

I mean, it's the pace also of the drone advancements that we see is, is both fascinating and concerning. But our sponsor is Paradigm Press. You know, the federal government has some funding problems and Social Security, for example, and 37 trillion in debt. What can you do about this? Well, Trump's doing a lot and this administration's trying, but what if there were something else? Jim Rickards, a 50 year government insider, has a point of view on what could solve this. He's advised four presidential administrations and he says President Trump is on the verge of a breakthrough. He says America is anything but broken and that investors who understand why could make a fortune in the months ahead. Jim Rickards believes if you're over 50, this could be your last chance to create lasting wealth regardless of politics. For the full story and learning how you could profit, go to birthright2025.com that's birthright2025.com paid for by Paradigm Press. Let me just ask you just the last minute or two we have here, Bill, so what do you think happens with these peace negotiations and with this conflict? What's your projection over the next six to 12 months?

[Bill Roggio]

I don't think we're going to see a ceasefire or a peace agreement anytime soon. I think the Trump administration is going to learn that Putin has, you know, believes that he has the advantage here, that he's the one actually holding the cards. And I think the Trump administration will continue to try to engage. This is something that President Trump likes. He likes to, you know, show that he's resolving conflicts. You know, we got the Armenia, Azerbaijan, we had Iran, Pakistan, you know, getting a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. I'm sorry, that was India, Pakistan. Yeah. And so I think he's going to continue to make these efforts, but I think in the six next six months, I think you just could see a continuation of the fighting. And I think you'll see these small gains by the Russians. They'll engulf several of these smaller cities and they're going to begin to put pressure within the next year and put it set itself up in a position to, to take what it wants to achieve via a peace agreement. So called peace agreement.

[Buck Sexton]

Right. Bill Roggio of FDD foundation of Defense and Democracy always appreciate you, sir.

[Bill Roggio]

Good to see you Great to see you, Buck. Thanks for having me on.

[Buck Sexton]

Thank you.

[Carol Markowitz and Mary Catherine Ham]

You want smart political talk without the meltdowns, we got you.

[Buck Sexton]

I'm Carol Markowitz.

[Carol Markowitz and Mary Catherine Ham]

And I'm Mary Kathryn Ham. We've been around the block in media, and we're doing things differently.

[Buck Sexton]

Normally is about real conversations, thoughtful, try to be funny, grounded, and no panic.

[Carol Markowitz and Mary Catherine Ham]

We'll keep you informed and entertained without ruining your day. Join us every Tuesday and Thursday Normally on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Bill Roggio]

This is an iHeart podcast.