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Buck Sexton
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Clay Travis
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Buck Sexton
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Clay Travis
We are rolling on the Tuesday edition of the program. I had to think there for a minute.
Buck Sexton
Always first hour, Tuesday edition. I got you. I got you.
Clay Travis
Always good to get the day right, right out of the jump. Buck and I have already done one interview this morning as we are promoting the continued growth of the show. We got some good news coming for you on the growth of the show in the near future, which maybe should just go ahead and tell you, but we'll see. So we are continuing to track everything going on in Minneapolis. Whoopi Goldberg has interesting takes. Of course he does. On. And by interesting, I mean absolutely insane. And the rhetoric has been taken to a completely absurd level as the fallout of Minneapolis continues. Plus lead story, lots of different places out there. There is a social media lawsuit that is alleging that basically social media companies have been rigging the sort of the algorithm, but taking advantage of the way that people's brains work. Go figure. In a way that's not dissimilar to cigarettes. And I'm curious what people's reaction to all of that is. We may have a big broad based discussion on that as I see that lawsuit starting and it is one of the top stories across the board. But right now, the ongoing battle that is being fought is what is going to happen in Minneapolis as Minneapolis has emerged as the foremost opposition to the Trump 2.0 agenda. And President Trump just talking with the media this morning had this to say about Mayor Fry and Governor Walz and the conversations he has had with both. Let's play cut one.
Ryan Gardusky
I had two very good talks. I had Jacob Fry and I had Governor Waltz. And I mean they were, they were great calls. So let's see how they report it. But they were very nice calls, very respectful. What we need is their criminals. You know, they have criminals and all I said just give us your criminals and if you give us the criminals, it all goes away. They're there to pick up murders. I don't know if you saw, but it was a couple of days ago announced that crime is the lowest in the history of our country, the recorded history of our country. That's a big statement. That's because of us. That's because we go into cities and towns, usually we're embraced. Sometimes when Chicago is like pulling teeth with Pritzker and with the mayor, the mayor of Chicago, low IQ person. And usually we're embraced.
Clay Travis
Okay, Buck, so this is the argument that I think the White House should pivot to. And I give Trump credit for kind of intuiting it to me, the fact that we are at 125 year violent crime low and the fact that our border is 100% secure and we have begun to kick out violent criminals is not coincidental. So if you want this country to be as safe as possible, which I think most people do, then it's going to require that we aggressively kick out violent predators who shouldn't be here. So I think linking the 125 year low in crime is a no brainer. And I actually think the White House has done a poor job of connecting the work that they have done, particularly on the border and as it pertains to illegal immigrants, with the decline in overall crime. So I like the president doing it. I think we need more of it.
Buck Sexton
Look, the initial messaging and we didn't address this much yesterday from DHS director or Secretary Gnome was bad. It was a. There was not the right stuff to say about the situation that had unfolded there, which is why now they're playing cleanup. You have to get the comms right on this stuff. You cannot give the other side real opportunity to point to misrepresentation of fact or gross overstatement of things. And unfortunately, and I think this is why there's a bit of a personnel shuffle underway, but unfortunately, some of the Gnome statements were, they were bad, they were wrong, and they were not wise things to say at that time. By the way, I'm not passing judgment one way or the other on the agents involved in the shooting of Pretty. That's his name, right? Pretty is. Yeah, I'm not passing judgment on them. I am saying the higher ups, and specifically the head of DHS Nome, did not handle this well. And that is a reality that the Trump administration is dealing with right now. And I think that's because Secretary Noem up to this point has been able to just go all in on whatever she thinks the most hardline position is. And that has been what we've needed up to this point. But in a situation where the facts need further review, you don't go to some maximum position, not, not supported by the facts because now you've created a problem. That's part. That's why there's a little bit of a, of a moment here for the administration that is, that has resulted, I think, in this reassessment about tactics and even strategy in Minneapolis. That said, Clay, I believe this is an absolutely critical moment. This is a moment of either clarity or honestly retreat on the issue of illegal immigration enforcement. We should not be making concessions about. And it's not Clear. The administration is doing that. I'm just saying this is. The decisions are being made right now, I mean, in these moments, in these hours, about how this is going to proceed. And the resistance, if you will, is for the first time, really emboldened. They're emboldened by what they see as a crack in the facade. They see a crack in the, you know, a break in the dam, if you will. And you even have this judge. I'm sure you saw this, Clay. A judge, Patrick Schlitz, has called for the head of ICE operations, Todd Lyons, Acting Director Todd Lyons, to appear before him in court. You have a judge demanding a federal law enforcement, senior federal law enforcement officer personally appear before him because of a case that the judge says that he put out an order on where there's supposed to be a bond hearing. But, I mean, Clay, this is like a federal judge saying, hey, there's a case, and I don't like what's, you know, the delay in the case. So I want the head of the FBI to show up before me and answer for this. My friends, we cannot negotiate with domestic terrorists. We cannot cave to sabotage operations. We cannot allow the resistance judiciary to subvert federal policy. And, Clay, I'm very concerned that people are starting to lose a little bit of their spinal stiffness over this.
Clay Travis
Yeah, it's going to happen, and it's going to happen because there are, unfortunately, a lot of people that are not truly committed to the idea of removing illegal immigrants. And we. Look, it's so important to think about how this is going to play out. We have told you exactly what was going to happen. Now, to be fair, year one, getting as many violent criminals out of the country is the top focus. Year two, in order to get illegal immigrants out of the country, you're going to have to start to just take illegal immigrants out of the country, some of whom do not have violent criminal backgrounds. And that is where it becomes politically more challenging, because this is where the. The actual argument to me, needs to be put forward and Democrats need to be put on the record. How many illegal immigrants is okay. Right? I mean, to me, that's really what the debate is over. And Democrats, by and large, Buck, it seems to me quite clearly think the answer is the numbers that we have now are fine. That's based on their action. And this is also. Maybe we should get Gardusky on to talk about this, because I was reading his analysis of this this morning. Bu. The real battle, if you're like, why is this really going on? What's really the stakes here. It's the 2030 census. The more and more I look at this, the more and more I focus and say, this is all about the 2030 census. And you're out there and you say, well, what do you mean by that, Clay? In 2030, Democrats are facing a truly existential crisis when it comes to the electoral College because they are going to lose a ton of seats. There's going to be a major swing in population that is finally taken into account and is continuing to skyrocket even to this day. And the states in the south, red states overwhelmingly are adding electoral votes, adding congressional seats, and blue states are losing them. And the easiest way to sum this up is Kamala Harris could have won the presidency if she had gotten about 230,000 or so more votes. If she had won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, she would have won thanks to the vote that she got in Omaha, Nebraska, she would have won 270 to 268 even if she lost the popular vote. If she had won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2030, that pathway no longer exists. In order to be elected president, Democrats are going to have to win some combination of Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, or they're going to have to take away some of the bedrock red states and they're panicked over this buck. That's really, I think what this battle is about because the future map for Democrats is really bad and they don't really have a pathway to win the House or win the win the presidency based on the arguments that they're putting out there right now. So why are they fighting so hard? They need these illegal immigrants to be counted in the census or they're going to lose even more seats in 2030. That's the story here to me.
Buck Sexton
Well, also this is going to put an end to their favorite game of replacing the American electorate with people from the third world who are going to be multigenerationally as we see in Somalia, Somalis in Minneapolis, dependent on welfare, the largesse of the state, the transfer of wealth and including sometimes large scale fraud for these new immigrant communities. Like they want that to continue. And if they can just open the borders and invite in the third world and then say, guess what, you're as American as everybody who's been here and every multi generational American and everybody, they really just disintegrate our political union. I mean, over time, this ceases to be a country. It's an economic zone, it's a welfare ward, a soup kitchen for the world. And that's what they want because then you have the everlasting enlargement of the state and you have the reality of a multi trillion dollar welfare state just getting larger and larger and larger all the time. And so it suits Democrats just fine. You'll notice this. They talk about how the next Google founder. No, they actually want people showing up who don't speak the language, who don't have any political allegiance to American history or American culture or anything else, who come here and go, where's my stuff?
Clay Travis
Yep.
Buck Sexton
And that stuff is taken from all of you, by the way. All of you Americans of all different colors and religions. That stuff is taken from you and then given to these people who arrive here. That is the reality. And Democrats don't have a way of explaining this, Clay, that is better than what we are seeing right now. So that is why they want the violence in the streets in Minneapolis. They want to pretend it's the Gestapo. They have to emotionalize the issue because ultimately what they've engaged in is the disintegration of our sovereignty and the mass transfer of American wealth to the third world.
Clay Travis
The Supreme Court, if you told me right now, Clay, what case out there should they rule on? I think we need a Supreme Court ruling on whether congressional seats should count illegal immigrants for purposes of allocation. Because I would argue that that absolutely should not be the case. And if you eliminated that incentive, I think a lot of Democrats policies and positions on the border would change very rapidly because they would recognize that they're not getting a benefit. The studies out there suggest that counting illegal immigrants for purposes of the congressional seat allocations is getting Democrats 10 to 20 additional seats. In other words, they would have no chance of winning the House. But for illegal immigrant populations being counted, I cannot imagine, Buck, that the United States, our founders, ever thought that illegal immigrants, people who were not allowed to be here because it was so hard to get here back in the day, that we would be counting people who are not American citizens for purposes of representation. There's a 0% chance that they would have been in favor of that when this country was founded. And frankly, I don't think the Supreme Court would sign off on this now. I think a case on this should go to the Supreme Court. And it's of the essence now before we get to the 2030 cycle, the Supreme Court should decide this in advance of the 2030 census. Look, we got hit hard by this winter storm here in Nashville. There's still over 100,000 people without power. 100,000 households. Way more than a hundred thousand people in my community of the Nashville area. One of our listeners, he reached out I told you this story yesterday. He said he's got a daughter who is a student at Ole Miss. All the power is off by and large in Oxford, Mississippi, one of the places that got hit the hardest in the country. And he said the only way he could get in touch with his daughter in the wake of this storm was Rapid Radios. It's a great opportunity to put into your into your overall repertoire for dealing with catastrophe, whether it's hurricane, ice, storm, tornado, whatever might happen, flood, Tom if you want to be able to stay in touch with everybody even in times of disaster, Rapid Radios is smart to have in your home. 5 day charge that will last a long time will allow you to stay in touch. Low cost and right now you can get off to up to 60% off their most popular radios. If you go to rapidradios.com today and get an exclusive deal that won't last long. Elevate your connection your experience Rapid Radios Communication redefine. Get hooked up now@rapid radios.com that's rapid radios.com make sure that your family is taken care of in the event of catastrophe. Rapid Radios.com Saving America One thought at a time Clay Travis and Buck Sexton find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcast.
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Clay Travis
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Clay Travis
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Buck Sexton
All right, second hour of clay and Buck kicks off now. Showdown in Minneapolis. That is still the most important news story and the most important fight underway right now in this country. And it's something that we're going to continue to discuss with all of you and bring you the latest on and we'll talk also to Ryan Graduski at the bottom of this hour about some numbers and this ties into the long term political implications of all this. Why do Democrats care so much? Without all these illegals, they lose power. Does anything matter to Democrats more than power? Absolutely not. So they'll do whatever they have to do to keep this whole machinery of open borders and third world invasion going. That is the plan and they are all in on it. And we knew that they would be. Now let me bring you this. And Clay, this is really interesting because I've seen a number of these analyses that are popping up online. Like I said, we have with, with the gwat audience of this show alone, we could definitely overthrow a medium sized country's, you know, military and everything else. I mean, we got a lot of former Spec Ops advisors, intel guys, by the way, very honored that you choose to listen to us. But I know from our comments and from people coming up to me, people emailing us and all the rest of the that we got a lot of you who know the world of asymmetrical warfare, no propaganda operations and no decentralized networks and how they operate for the purposes of terrorist groups and how they operate for insurgents. And that's really interesting. You have this piece up in the New York Post today and it gets into exactly some of that stuff which I think people need to know more about. That's why I'm calling the sabotage operations military terminology. Remember, sabotage operation is not necessarily lethal. Right. Sabotage operation a lot of times is not going to be. It's going to be something. Now it can be, but it's going to be something where they're, you know, maybe you're going to go after the, you know, the gasoline supply or the communications or whatever it may be of an opponent. And that's what's going on here with Immigration Customs Enforcement, this New York border. I'm sorry, this New York Post piece goes into the following, Clay quote, the skirmish that led to Saturday's fatal shooting of an agitator by Border Patrol agents in Minneapolis. And the response that followed were driven by a complex network of far left organizations with a wide range of causes. This is actually a FOX News piece, by the way, Repo published on New York Post by Azra no Money, FOX News digital investigation, a coordinated web of encrypted chats street alerts and tracking of ICE abductors in a sophisticated database reviewed by Fox News Digital shows that agitators were already mobilized at the scene where 37 year old Alex Priddy was killed minutes before any shots were fired. ICE and Border Patrol agents were there to arrest an illegal immigrant criminal. Pretty and others were there outside a donut shop to meet them as part of a strategic pattern of organized interference sabotage operations with law enforcement. Over the following hours, a national network of socialist, communist and Marxist Leninist cells in the United States leveraged the tragic fatality into a nationwide protest operation. This level of engineered chaos is unique to Minneapolis, though. It is the direct consequence of far left agitators working with local authorities. According to JD Vance, Encrypted signal Clay, I could go on and on. They are operating this thing like a decentralized domestic terror cell. The only difference is that they are inviting violence through their sabotage operations instead of directing the violence themselves and attacking ICE agents. So far we worry that that may change.
Clay Travis
Well, my concern is if they get what they want in Minneapolis, their tactics and techniques and methods will just call.
Buck Sexton
Them tactics, techniques and procedures. There's the terminology. There you go.
Clay Travis
There you go. That's off the top of my head. I'm not the expert, but that makes sense on the language that they would adopt this in every other blue city that decides that they want to combat everything that ICE is doing. So this is one of the reasons that I think there has to be some form of, of resolution that doesn't look like a complete withdrawal that can be claimed as victory by these individuals. Now to be fair, I can't imagine there's that many illegals in the grand scheme of things in Minneapolis compared to places like California, Texas and Florida. So I do think that this was naturally going to wind down in Minneapolis at some point in time just because the target rich environments of illegal immigration. I would not think Minneapolis, if I were guessing, Buck, I wouldn't think Minneapolis is In the top 50 most illegal immigrant populations in the United States. And you might say, why would you say that, Clay? I don't think most illegal immigrants who tend as a general rule to come from warmer climates are going to go to Minneapolis and say, I want to be in minus 20 weather for entire months at a time, basically in the winter. Right. So most illegal immigrant populations in my opinion are going to be in California, Texas and Florida for the same reason that a lot of y' all are in California, Texas and Florida. Because the weather's better. All right. It's Also, the economies are growing fast, certainly in Texas.
Buck Sexton
They're also the biggest states.
Clay Travis
There are more jobs, population is larger. That's what I would anticipate. So my point on this is ICE pulling out of Minneapolis. They could have done most of the work in Minneapolis, which is a relatively small population. Again, I think both at large, relatively small population, but also I would think a relatively small population of overall illegal immigrants. So I think it would be natural that they would be winding down whatever work they are going to do there in the days and, and weeks ahead. So that's a natural outgrowth. My concern is what Buck just laid out, which is that they're going to take the methods that they learned in Minneapolis and apply them elsewhere. Second part of what you're talking about, Buck, communication. This is a communication battle. Now, all of politics is a communication battle. And primarily it's a battle of story. What story are you telling and is your story more compelling? Does it land in a way better than your opponent's story? I think we're using way too much language associated with, with the way that they are telling their story on the left. And I think this has to be. You heard me in the first hour. I think the President, I think the White House, I think Republicans at large have to tie in the ICE actions with record low crime in America. Do you see the headline from the New York Times where they were? I think Eric Trump shared it, but the New York Times was saying, we don't know why crime has suddenly fallen to 125 year low. Experts are unsure. Let me give you one idea that I'm pretty confident in having a completely secure southern border and kicking out tens of thousands of violent criminals has made the United States safer, and that's because of the actions of Trump. But how many people do you hear making that argument connect so people can make that connection if they're not otherwise doing it? Wait a minute. I want my community to be safe. I want my state to be safe. I want my country to be safe. That's why I was hammering last week. 125 year low in murders. And Buck and I have been saying this for five years with all of you. You can say, well, why focus on murder? Because you know, if somebody got murdered, right. One of the downsides of, of high crime is when Buck's scooter got stolen in New York City.
Buck Sexton
I know no one cares.
Clay Travis
Rest in peace. Rest in peace. But you didn't report it because it wasn't worth your time to get the cops involved. Searching for Your scooter. Now, my wife got a bike stolen.
Buck Sexton
Can you just see them in, like, the 19th Precinct? Like, yeah, kid, we got our best people on it. Sure. We'll get back to you on that scooter that was stolen.
Clay Travis
My wife was so mad when we lived in downtown Nashville. She had a great bike. She would bike to school. Sometimes they stole her bike. Somebody did cut the chain right out of where we were living in downtown Nashville. She was furious about it. I don't think we reported it because the cops wouldn't have done anything about it. So my point on murder is sometimes you look at crimes and petty crimes don't get reported because you're so frustrated. They're so common and you know nothing's going to get done with it. I bet some of you out there work in stores and somebody comes in and they steal something out of your store and you're like, do I want to spend an hour trying to deal with the cops on this when I know they're not going to do anything once the individual's gotten away? My point on this is murders. We tend to know whether they happen or not. So the fact that we're at 125 year low in murders is an incredible credit to Trump. You have to tie it in with ice. It's all part and parcel of the reason why this has occurred. If you want ice, we got to get bad guys out.
Buck Sexton
I also think, Clay, the surge in just federal law enforcement, I mean, I can tell you from the FBI side as well as other federal agencies, they decided it's amazing what you can accomplish when instead of hunting down nonviolent J6 protesters, like Al Qaeda members, you actually go after murderers, rapists, cartel, hitmen, you know, child abuser, all these things. When the federal law enforcement agencies are going after people that are a danger to the public and who prey on their fellow human beings, good things happen for public safety. It's kind of amazing, isn't it, when cops feel like you have their back to protect good people and to punish the lawbreakers, there's less lawbreaking. This is. This is a shock. I know, to all of the, you know, all of the. The women you're seeing on Facebook who live in safe suburbs, who are like.
Clay Travis
What'S going on with isis, the Gestapo?
Buck Sexton
But it turns out it's true. The very straightforward and common sense law enforcement approach of the Trump administration works. What a shock, Clay. And here we are.
Clay Travis
I know, but this is important, right? Like, I would argue for everybody out there if you said Clay, what is the number one job of the government in the, in the United States, like, in our physical country? Keep people safe. Like, I would argue that is the number one goal. Because if people aren't safe, nothing else works. Right. Now, you can sub, subdivide that and break down what do we mean by safety. There's a bunch of different angles associated with it. But on the most important job, I would argue that the federal government could have and that your local and state government could have, because they all work in concert. I would argue it's keep us safe, keep us from getting married, murdered. I hope you get married. Keep us safe, keep us from getting murdered, keep the streets safe in all of our communities. Never in the life of anyone listening right now has there ever been a time when there was a lower murder rate in this country. That's an incredible accomplishment of Trump 1.0. ICE is intimately involved in that success story, and that is why we have to do it. And Buck, you and I talked about this a couple of weeks ago. It's not coincidental that Minneapolis and the BLM protest in the wake of George Floyd led to the largest increase in murders we have ever seen in any of our lives. That's FBI data. They're trying to create the same kind of situation with ice, where they want people to rise up and they want to create chaos in the streets. Again. We cannot allow it.
Buck Sexton
Well said. You should have a radio show. That was good.
Clay Travis
Thank you.
Buck Sexton
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Clay Travis
Want to be in the know when you're on the go the Team 47 podcast. Drop highlights from the week, Sundays at noon Eastern in the Clay and Buck podcast feed. Find it on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Buck Sexton
Welcome back into Clay and Buck, our brilliant numbers nerd. We say that with tremendous affection. Ryan Graduski is blowing up the Internet with insights based on the data once again. He joins us now. He is the host of the fabulous podcast it is a Numbers Game on the Clay and Buck Podcast Network. He's also got a great substack where he I'm a subscriber where he takes all this stuff and runs it through the numbers machinery. Ryan, I want to start with this one. I thought it's really interesting as we're talking ICE is the big issue now. We're going to focus in on this Minneapolis, all of it. And I want your general takes on some of this too, because you understand the political dynamics really well. But your piece here, when you crunch the numbers, foreign born births cratered in October when ICE operations and self deportations increase. Give us walk us through some of these numbers and why this is significant and what you see going on here.
Ryan Gardusky
Right? So I always say that birth data is a lagging indicator of overall immigration data. If you're an illegal alien and you're seven months pregnant and Trump just got sworn in, you're not going to sell deport. You're going to hold out until you give birth to the baby who will be a citizen. If you're not pregnant when Trump swores in, you may be more inclined to sit there and self deport. I just got its massive funding haul in July of 2025. So they really started escalating in August. And from August to October, which I narrate through the piece, is you see a increasing decline among births by foreign born nationals in the United States, especially foreign born nationals with large illegal alien populations. So for instance, El Salvador had a 34% decline in the month of October 2024. There were 2,700 El Salvadorian women who gave birth in America. That number declined to 1700 in October 2025, a very large fall, larger than the overall natural amount if people weren't leaving. Right. Among Chinese nationals, that dropped to 24% from October to October was a 24% drop. Among other big groups of large illegal island populations, Nicaraguans 18%, Nigerians 27%, Hondurans, 20%, Ecuadorians, 30%. These are massive declines in the number of foreign born women having children in America which would indicate they are likely not having them is because those who would may be self deporting or being or being, you know, obtained and deported self, you know, forced deportation or planning to self deport. So they're not going to sit there and stay here. All those things. Huge, huge decline. The 2025 looks like according to the early CDC data up to October, from January to October, that whites are majority of births in the United States again for the first time in two years. Now they decline substantially as Hispanics increase substantially under, under the Joe Biden administration because all those illegal populations coming in as foreign born births are declining. Also a lot of minority births are declining. White births have declined, but not at the same rate as everybody else, which bounces them back up into the majority as of October. It will likely be the majority gain come January. Unless things really take a turn in the data that we don't know yet. I highly doubt that's going to happen in the last two months of the year. But it's very interesting how birth data kind of gives indicators to immigration data.
Clay Travis
Ryan Gardesky with us now. We encourage you to go subscribe to the Clay and Buck podcast network of which he is a great part and a lot of you are listening to his show. Okay. Looking at the census apportionment forecasts, which I know you have been focused on as well, and this is going to be kind of detailed and so I understand if you're listening. It's hard to visualize, but let me kind of give you a sense. This is the Carnegie Mellon University forecast that Texas will gain four seats, Florida four seats. Then Idaho, Utah, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina would each gain one seat. States losing seats, California, New York, California would lose four, New York two, Illinois two. Then Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Wisconsin, Rhode island, all would lose one each. Okay. The net outcome of that is that Trump 2024 would have won 11 more electoral votes. And if you're out there right now, it means the Kamala Harris path to win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and one of the seats in Omaha, that split Nebraska seat would no longer exist. Isn't this a huge part of what the fight is right now that Democrats are staring at the 2030 census in the face and recognizing that this could be cataclysmic to their existing Electoral College pathways to the presidency?
Ryan Gardusky
It's exactly that. Legal immigration and illegal immigration both have been what propped up blue states for decades. California, New York, Illinois, they would not have as many seats in 2020 and in 2016 if they did not have all the illegal alien population and illegal immigrants, those two groups, foreign nationals, absolutely prop up Democrats in those big blue states. Here's a fascinating number. California today, according to the census, has 200,000 fewer people living in it than it did in 2020. Compare that to Florida has 2 million more people than it did in 2020. That's with all those people because remember, these are mostly Joe Biden numbers. Even with Joe Biden's surge of illeg, the turn against California by American citizens is tremendous. And if you look overall from state to state to state, the populations of these big blue states with these absolute failed left wing governments which have not worked and have not managed to sit there and grow the population, increase opportunity, lower taxes, you name it, have caused a lot of them to sit there and run and try to get out of these states as fast as humanly possible. And a lot of that will mandate in the 2030 census and the 2030 reapportionment. I'll say this, if this continues now, this is by the way, without the deportations, without the self deportations, without the limits of immigration. If those hit, those numbers could easily surge to 13, 14, 15 net loss out of Democrat states. It will be horrendous for Democrats and even more so, it means that the big blue wall doesn't matter for electoral politics. It means that a vice president, J.D. vance running for president for his reelection rather in 2032, all he would need to do would reach a capture. Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and you win the presidency. Pennsylvania doesn't matter. It doesn't matter if you lose Georgia, but it doesn't matter overall. Michigan doesn't matter. Wisconsin doesn't matter. Even the hard to reach states, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, it doesn't matter. All of that at that point is just gravy. And it means a decade of Democrats really having to put all their weight and all their money in either Georgia, Arizona or North Carolina. Cuz without those three states they can't win the presidency.
Buck Sexton
Ryan, what is your sense right now as it feels like decisions are still very much being made about what the administration's going to do in Minneapolis in the face of this resistance, these sabotage operations? How is Trump worried about these numbers to the point where he might change course? Is it important to stay the course or else the base will abandon him? Well, not entirely, but you know, how do you assess based on the numbers, the polling, what's going on in Minneapolis and what the administration Needs to do.
Ryan Gardusky
Yeah, I mean if you look at the New York Times polling, the polling that just came up from Siena College, it's very consistent. Americans want, Americans think. And this is also the YouGov poll. Americans believe illegal immigration in the United States is a big problem and they overall approve of Trump's deportation of illegal aliens. That was the New York Times Sienna poll. They don't like how it's being conducted. Back in October, Fox News released the story that Tristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski, her very special advisor, gave basically sidelined Tom Homan from doing deportations. Tom Holman has 30 plus year career doing this and understands what it's like out on the field. I think sidelining Tom Holman was a big, big mistake because support for ICE was still well above water when Holman was doing it was in charge. You know, they've been trying to get these numbers up, which is very, very important. But the, the fear of, of mass deportation has caused more self deportation than actual mass deportation has. Trump's gotten higher numbers, certainly higher numbers than the first term, highest number since Obama's first year in office. However, the damage that they're doing right now to the, to ICE as an institution is alarming. And Democrats not only want to now defund ice, but they want to prosecute ICE officers and members of the cabinet and the administration who are in charge of ice. It's very, very dangerous to give them that political leverage. I think Kristi Noem's press conference was a horror show and I think that she did so much damage in the aftermath of this shooting that that was actually worse than the shooting itself.
Clay Travis
Ryan? Yeah, that's a strong take. We'll get into some of the, some of the fallout of the stories.
Buck Sexton
Again, I don't want to. Can you just hold your question? I just want to follow up on this. Why is Trump circling the wagons then and protecting a member of the administration? Because I have to. What you said was really a catastrophic blunder. Is it just cuz Trump doesn't ever want to at this point give the media what they want when they're calling for a scalp? I mean, to me, yeah, I mean.
Ryan Gardusky
If you look at the Mike Waltz story, remember Mike Waltz story from earlier in the administration, how he had the signal chat, invited the Atlantic reporter in it. He wasn't fired immediately. It actually bought him time probably even though that Trump was looking to get rid of him, according to many internal reports, is that Trump wanted to get rid of him. He realized it was a mistake nominating him for this position. And then when the story leaked, it actually saved him time because he didn't want to admit that the story was an eyesore. I think a lot of people have been disappointed with Kristine for quite some time. I think that she has made a lot of mistakes and a lot of enemies inside the administration. I think Corey Lewandowski being as involved as he has been has been a big problem for a lot of people in the admin. I know people have complained on the higher up saying Cory's been a very, very big, big decision maker and making a lot of poor judgments. And I know that Tom Holman has been sidelined for the most part, which is why Trump decided to send Tom Holman in. But, but, but in response to the shooting, which was a series of very bad judgments from, from, you know, a lot of people, her calling him a domestic terrorist really did tremendous damage to people who are in the middle. You can't afford to lose normies on immigration. It is the thing that got Trump elected in 16 and 24. And Kristi Noem comments, which you could see in your own blue eye, clear eyes, that he was not pointing a gun at any ICE officers makes people sit there and normies sit there and say, well, these people are all liars. We can't trust any of these things.
Clay Travis
Last question for you, Ryan. I think that was all well said based on what the data is showing. I think the biggest story that is not getting enough attention, we talked about the shift in 2030 population, how the electoral college going to be set up differently. The fact that illegal immigrants are counted for congressional representation is to me flagrantly unconstitutional. But it's also a major incentive for these people to not be removed and to explain why Democrats are acting out as they are. With that being said, have you seen data and I know I've asked you this before, but it's such an under discussed story that I think we need to bring it up constantly. How much are Democrats benefiting in terms of raw numbers of congressional seats based on illegal immigrant populations being counted for purposes of congressional seat apportionment.
Ryan Gardusky
Right. It's. It, well, it depends on, I mean it's a very difficult thing. Right, because you have a district like Media Vasquez in Brooklyn which is overwhelmingly illegal immigrants, which is, I mean, she sits there and says bring illegals to my district or I'm going to lose it. She has said things like that in public. Right. So it's very hard to sit there and say, oh, there would be an extra house Seat upstate instead or Long island instead of in Brooklyn. Overall, they say about five or six. If you kind of move the numbers around. Those weren't mine. That was Pew research. California would have lost, you know, would have never gained. It's not just about what they would have lost in 2020. What they would have never gained in 2010 and in 2000, this illegal alien population. Overall, it's about a half a dozen, primarily, though, in very, very blue districts. Maxine Waters, Nidia Vasquez. These people who run for office, they need to get 200,000 fewer votes to win a House seat than people in Ohio, Alabama, and Tennessee.
Clay Travis
See, I think that's super interesting. What percentage of Americans do you think know that illegal immigrants are counted for purposes of congressional seats? Because I think it's like 15 or 20%. I just don't think most Americans know.
Ryan Gardusky
Yeah, the same percentage that can name all nine support members of the Supreme Court. It's very low. I mean, it's just. I don't believe that many Americans know this whatsoever. And it is worth getting angry about. The Supreme Court has ruled that it's all persons. And I have to change the Constitution or try to fight it on a different. On a different note. But they've sat there and said you can count them on all persons. I mean, you could also change the census where you could ask their citizenship status and if they're illegally in the country, and that may make them not want to answer the census, which would also decrease their numbers.
Clay Travis
Good stuff as always, Ryan. Go check it out. Numbers game. It's a part of the Clay and Buck podcast network. He does great work there. The podcast network overall growing fast thanks to you guys. Ryan, appreciate the time.
Ryan Gardusky
Thank you.
Clay Travis
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Clay Travis
Welcome in our number three Tuesday edition of the program. We thank all of you for hanging out with us. Frigid cold continues to descend according to across much of the country Buck I even saw where it might get down to freezing in Miami this weekend. Have you looked ahead to the the forecasts in Miami? Are you prepared?
Buck Sexton
I know we had to put little speed in a puff jacket this morning and I will say he looked very cute. If you go on Instagram you'll see or on my ex account, he's very cute in his puff jacket. He's like what is this? What kind of peasant wear is this? He's used to just being in T shirts and onesies all the time.
Clay Travis
Giving you an idea. It's frigid here. We still have ice everywhere. Kids are out of school, Hundreds of thousands of people still without power. So we certainly are thinking about all of you out there who are struggling in different Parts of the country. Miami. I was looking at this because I saw a headline. It's going to be 32 degrees on Sunday for a low in Miami. I don't know how often it hits freezing in Miami, but that is how cold the whole country is right now as, as frigid weather has set in and potentially another big snowstorm coming across the east coast in the days and weeks in the next week or so. Okay. Several different stories that are out there. I think it's important for you to understand what is going on. Reports from CNN that this individual Preddy, who was shot, had previously been tackled by ice, had his rib broken. That is a sign certainly of, of him having been engaging in obstruction of these ice proceedings for a very long time. But we got some good audio here that I think is significant. And in particular, it has to do with a go back in time to a year called 2010. And Barack Obama was speaking about the necessities of applying the law and ensuring that people were not being rewarded for illegally entering into the country. This was not that long ago. I want to find it. This is cut 12, a flashback to 2010. If you're thinking to yourself, it's really kind of crazy, the arguments that are made on the left now. This was only 15 years ago. Obama about borders for those in the.
Buck Sexton
Immigrants rights community who have argued passionately that we should simply provide those who are illegally with legal status or at least ignore the laws on the books and put an end to deportation until we have better laws. And often this argument is framed in moral terms. Why should we punish people who are just trying to earn a living? I recognize the sense of compassion that drives this argument, but I believe such an indiscriminate approach would be both unwise and unfair. It would suggest to those thinking about coming here illegally that there will be no repercussions for such a decision. And this could lead to a surge in more illegal immigration. And it would also ignore the millions of people around the world who are waiting in line to come here legally. Ultimately, our nation, like all nations, has the right and obligation to control its borders and set laws for residency and citizenship. And no matter how decent they are, no matter their reasons, the 11 million who broke these laws should be held accountable.
Clay Travis
I mean, that was 15 years ago. I mean, if you're out there and you're thinking to yourself, it doesn't feel that long ago that these arguments that Democrats are making, which are the foundation of their party, would be considered radical. And I wanted to play some of these Cuts too for you. Because I do think it's important to understand what people are saying. Rick Wilson, Buck, he's the former McCain manager, right? Campaign manager back in the day.
Buck Sexton
I mean, he's been, he's been an absolute, absolutely insane anti Trump. Like he's Trump derangement syndrome, number numero uno. I mean, he's completely nuts.
Clay Travis
But yes, he formerly worked on Republican Project Guy.
Buck Sexton
Yeah, he's one of those, like, you know, the whole thing. You get it.
Clay Travis
So here he is, Buck, saying that he wants Stephen Miller in the Nuremberg trials. I mean, clearly, I mean, this is what he said, but I think this is kind of evidence I played for you Obama 15 years ago. Here's Rick Wilson, former McCain manager, campaign manager, 23.
Buck Sexton
I want Stephen Miller to be the number one in the Nuremberg trials. When this is done, when this is done, I want Stephen Miller to be the first one who is tried and convicted and dangles.
Ryan Gardusky
Okay.
Buck Sexton
I want him to be brought before a court of law because he is the sole executive that runs all this DHS ICE stuff.
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Buck Sexton
I stopped.
Clay Travis
Okay, so he wants him hung. I mean, this is, this is, this is kind of the rhetoric that you're hearing now on the left. Here's Stephen Colbert, comedian, extraordinary, technically hanged.
Buck Sexton
By the way, because the word police will come for you. But yes, it's not hung hanged.
Clay Travis
Oh, I think hung should be the word. Here is Stephen Colbert, comedian extraordinaire, saying as part of his monologue all about ice. I do think when we talked to Brendan Carr last week, this is something that should be looked into. You're on public airwaves if you want to have a podcast. Say whatever you want, but this is supposed to be a guy telling jokes. Aha. Here's Stephen Colbert, Mass Secret police shooting innocent people with impunity in the streets are not victims. The only way they could ever even be considered close to victims is that they are at best weak minded individuals full of anger, who have been led.
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Clay Travis
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Clay Travis
Pavino went on complaining.
Ryan Gardusky
Look, Dana, they're, they're, they're trying to.
Buck Sexton
Portray Border patrol agents and ICE agents as Gestapo, capo, Nazi and many other words.
Clay Travis
Yes, do not compare ICE or Border patrol agents to the Nazis. That's an unfair comparison. The Nazis were willing to show their faces. This is a comedy show. ICE agents are Nazis, according to Stephen Colbert. So, Buck, I do think it, it is representative and Interesting and worthy of true examination how in the space of basically 10 years, we've gone from both Democrats and Republicans publicly saying pretty consistently, Hillary Clinton said it all during the 2016 campaign, even if she might not have acted on it. And that's a different topic, that, hey, we've got to get illegal immigrants out of the country to wide open borders. And if you try to take illegal immigrants out of the country, you are the equivalent of Nazis. It is a really wild, crazy narrative journey that we have been on to reach the arguments of the Democrat Party now.
Buck Sexton
Well, they just say anything that the requirements of power demand in the moment. Right. There's the great thing about being a Democrat, is that you're never boxed in by things like principle, consistency or sanity. You have endless options. What do you have to say now? And you know, if you, if you've ever argued with somebody, this is, this is real. By the way, if you ever argued with somebody who has a number, I think they're called like cluster B personality disorders. But there's a whole narcissistic personality disorder, borderline personality disorder. What you find is a clay. You're never actually arguing about a thing. You're just dealing with a syndrome all the time. If you want to talk about something, they want to talk about something else or they want to know why you're attacking them or why your tone is so aggressive or why you can never get to the thing. This is arguing with Democrats and this is why being a Democrat is so commonly associated with mental illness. And more and more, I think, kind of just isn't mental illness. But anyway, this is what you are dealing with. They will say whatever they have to say. It doesn't matter what they said yesterday, and they'll say something else different tomorrow. And what makes our lives more challenging is living in reality. Because, yes, it's good to be right, but also you have to uphold certain standards and you can't just change the facts as you see fit. And that's what they do. On the immigration thing, Clay, the whole Democrat Party until what feels like five minutes ago was we want to secure. They were hammering Trump. Can I just take a moment here, everybody? They were hammering Trump in the summer of 25. I'm sorry, would that be. I'm trying to get the. When was the election? No. Yes. The summer of summer of 24. 24. Thank you. Summer of 24. They were hammering Trump for not signing on to a border security bill that they claim was going to stop all the illegals from coming in. Trump has now stopped all the illegals from coming in and he's Hitler. This is who, this is who we're dealing with. Remember they were saying you don't really care. You won't even believe the arguments they're making unless you go back and read and watch with your own eyes. You don't want the border to be secure. You're not going along with Biden's border bill. It's insane. These people are nuts.
Clay Travis
Yes. And by. And I will say there were a lot of stupid Republicans who lined up there too, right?
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Clay Travis
A couple.
Buck Sexton
I think one of them was in Oklahoma.
Clay Travis
We haven't forgotten who suddenly said, oh yeah, Congress has to act. And by the way, this is one of the downsides of the amount of executive power that is now residing in the White House. If Democrats win in 2028, they're going to run on hey, yeah, we've got to have border security. They'll run and then they'll open the border wide open again. I mean it is 100% going to happen January 2029 if they have the ability, if they win the presidency.
Buck Sexton
Yes, you are absolutely right. But you've reminded me we haven't talked about this and we should get to it. There's been so much news and so much going on. Have you seen the bait and switch that my. I love Virginia as a state. My family, I used to.
Clay Travis
Yeah, yeah.
Buck Sexton
What they have done in Virginia, Alison Spanberger ran as like this milk toast moderate. You know, I'm just, she was a.
Clay Travis
Mom who was just trying to make sure that moms could have a good state to call home. That was her campaign.
Buck Sexton
She and the Democrat legislature now are coming in with the full blown Virginia communist manifesto top to bottom. No more mandatory minimums for rapists. No more mandatory minimums for murder. No more guns allowed to be had by. By lawful. I mean you go down this list, this stuff that they are doing is insane or that they want to do. And none of this was talked about in the actual run up the election. This is the classic we say this is what they do in Virginia. This is what they do in Wisconsin. This is what they do everywhere. They run as, oh, I'm just a mom. I just want good things. I just want good schools and health care. And then all of a sudden they're like comrades. Line them up against the wall when they get into power. This is the Democrat playbook you are seeing it in. If we got some Virginia listeners right now, you can fill in some of these details. But Spanberger the radical. I thought she worked at the CIA and you can trust that she's not a, you know, she's not a crazy lady. She's just a vessel for the crazy clay, just like Joe Biden was. Joe Biden was a vessel for the crazy and he was blue collar Joe from Delaware.
Clay Travis
Yeah. No, it's actually crazy. It's actually completely and utterly bonkers. Where, where Democrats, what Democrats run on and then what they do whatever you want to say about Trump and they're, you can criticize the president across the board. He's doing exactly what he said he was going to do. I'm not sure we have ever seen a more transactional presidency, I. E. You go look at the platform that President Trump ran on, the explicit promises that he made that he was going to put in place. He ran on exactly what he has done so far. Now, you can criticize as you can any president the process of that occurring. But I'm not sure we've ever had someone more honestly say, this is what I'm going to do, show up and start to deliver on that as well. So we'll take some of your calls. By the way, I know I said I would get to your calls. 800-282-2882. You can always catch us on talkbacks. Positive buck as we are sitting here talking to you in real time. The stock market has just hit the S P 500, which is the largest 500 companies in America has just hit an all time high again under President Trump. So I know a lot of times people don't pay attention or tell you when things are going well. Stock market goes down, it's a lead story. S&P 500 today has hit another all time high under President Trump.
Buck Sexton
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Clay, Travis and Buck Sexton Mic drops that never sounded so good. Find them on the free I Die Hard radio app or wherever you get your podcast. Do you actually know Ball well?
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Ryan Gardusky
What do you have to lose?
Clay Travis
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Ryan Gardusky
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Buck Sexton
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Clay Travis and Buck Sexton dive into the biggest stories in U.S. politics and current events, focusing on the national showdown over illegal immigration enforcement, the political dynamics shaping the 2030 Census and Electoral College, and the left's response to ICE operations—particularly in Minneapolis. With a mix of analysis, blunt opinions, and data-driven insights (courtesy of guest Ryan Gardusky), the hosts weigh the impact of policy for public safety, electoral outcomes, and the broader conflict around America's border and demographic future.
[02:28 – 15:09]
[09:57 – 20:00, 36:13 – 50:03]
[21:59 – 34:51, 57:44 – 64:48]
[50:03 – 68:40]
The conversation is direct, combative, and laced with sarcasm and dark humor, especially as Clay and Buck mock left-wing talking points and media figures. They alternate between alarmed warnings about political sabotage and swaggering confidence in Trump’s agenda and its public safety results. Their language is unfiltered, reflecting the show’s right-leaning, adversarial approach to commentary on U.S. politics.
This episode provides a granular look at the intersection of immigration policy, public safety, and the looming impact of demographic change on America’s political landscape. With a sharp focus on the Minneapolis resistance to ICE, the potential reshaping of congressional seats via the 2030 Census, and the evolving narrative warfare from both parties, Clay and Buck make the case that Democrats’ “open borders” advocacy is a power play—while hailing the Trump administration for lowering crime and stirring the political pot. Special guest Ryan Gardusky unpacks the census data in detail, giving listeners a behind-the-numbers perspective on why these battles matter for the next decade of American politics.