← The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
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- [00:00]
Clay Travis
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
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- [02:07]
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- [02:39]
Clay Travis
Thursday edition of the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton show. Great to be here with all of you across this great land of ours. We have updates on the air campaign against Iran, the war from the sky continuing on. President Trump weighing in with his assessment of how this is going so far. Concerns rising as the the Strait of Hormuz has become a bit of a ghost town. Not a lot of shipping going through there because of concerns about Iranian reprisals. Oil prices jumping a little bit. Some are starting to hit the pannikin button on that one. We will look at the analysis and where things actually are and what is likely to happen. More on that Texas Senate race, more on James Talarico. And I have to say some of the chatter online is, guys, we have to hold some of these clips until closer to the election because some of them are truly astonishing. And the fact that Democrats believe that this is a person who will win a Senate seat in Texas, I wouldn't want this person in charge of the Mr. Softee stand on the corner. This guy is a loon. This guy is crazy. But we'll get into it. But he quotes the Bible. So if you work for the New York Times, anybody who kind of sounds like this and quotes the Bible has to be a godly man. And so he must know something even though he thinks that Jesus all about trans, all about transing the youth, big Jesus, huge into transing the kids, according to James Tallarico. We'll talk more about this. And also, I'm a little too excited about this, actually. But apparently it's not the first of its kind. But a rule, a rule for the skies has nothing to do with our air war Neuran. A rule for the skies. When it comes to air travel, that is, I think, in defense of Western civilization itself. I think finally the savages are on their back heels thanks to a United Airlines rule that if you, you know, you know what, Clay? I don't want to get into it right now because we have more important things, but this gets me very excited. And you know what? It has to do with headphone usage on planes. The savages can no longer have their way with just playing their iPads and their phones with no headphones. So we all have to hear whatever garbage they're watching or listening to it is.
- [05:09]
Buck Sexton
I thought there's a bunch. We're going to have some fun and also talk about serious things that are going on right now. I love James Talarico story because this thing is just an utter disaster. We're going to go to Israel, by the way, at the bottom of this hour with Yale Eckstein and hear what it's like in Israel right now. And then our buddy Ryan Gardusky is going to be on with us to talk some of this Talarico and decision making as it pertains to the Senate landscape as the primaries have started. But Buck, I think the biggest and most important thing about Iran right now, if you look at the overall trajectory of where we're headed, is what is the exit strategy for Iran in the context of to what extent are they going to reach a leader that we are okay with? Because I would suggest, I'm curious if you would, how you would analyze this. Iran's strategy right now, I think is going to be, hey, we'll just take as many bombs as necessary and the president is not going to stay committed to this long range. And all we've got to do is withstand four or five weeks of significant bombing and then we'll stick our heads up, see who is still around and we'll just elevate somebody. I think this is what the government in power right now is thinking. The the next ayatollah is not going to be a lot different than the past ayatollah and we will try to rebuild from the destruction that is there. I think the question is to what extent is the new leader signed off on by America and what is the time frame? Because I think the longer this goes on, the tougher it gets for Trump. But the reality is when we're bombing from a distance, I don't think it really impacts a lot of Americans in a very significant way.
- [07:04]
Clay Travis
Well, this is why I mentioned war angle. The oil prices situation, the oil prices spike is something that certainly if this continues on and if it happens along the lines, what we saw with the Russia Ukraine war, where I think it got up to 120something dollars a barrel at one point because of concerns over access to fossil fuels, to gas and natural gas and oil. So that's something that they have to take into consideration here. The Strait of Hormuzzi is a strategic choke point. About 20% of the world's global oil supply does go through that strait. And there are currently hundreds of ships, tankers, et cetera, idling, not really sure where they're going or what they're going to do because they're not going to be able to enter or exit the strait under the current circumstance, that has to change. Trump, meanwhile, saying this is cut 14. Things are going great from the aerial war front, even better than he expected them to play. 14. We're doing very well on, on the
- [08:10]
Political Analyst/Guest
war front, to put it mildly.
- [08:12]
Clay Travis
I would say.
- [08:13]
Buck Sexton
Somebody said, on a scale of 10,
- [08:15]
Clay Travis
where would you rate it? I said about a 15. Their leadership is just rapidly going. Everybody that seems to want to be
- [08:22]
Buck Sexton
a leader, they end up dead.
- [08:24]
Clay Travis
And it's, it's an amazing, amazing thing that's taking place. And he's saying, on a scale of 10, I would rate it about 15. Clay Trump seems to be very pleased with how this is going so far, that we are in a position to essentially destroy all of the offensive capability. One of the big parts of this is tracking and destroying what they call the missile cities. Wall Street Journal had a big piece on this. These underground bunkers essentially where they store a lot of missiles, and then they have these mobile missile launchers. Those are like the first things that US And Israeli planes are looking to pick off. Not only we picking them off the moment they move to try to fire, but also we're destroying those bunkers in place, caving them in. And so all of a sudden, thousands of missiles will no longer be accessible to the Iranian regime. The military outgunning that we are seeing right now is, I think, far beyond what a lot of people would have expected.
- [09:28]
Buck Sexton
I think that's completely right. And I again, one of the things that is so interesting, and you know this because you're a military history person as well, is conflict accelerates technological advance. And initially wars are fought on the technology of the past war. Everybody says, hey, this would have beaten the past war. And then you start to see an evolution rapidly. You've seen it with Ukraine and Russia. I think there is an argument, and I'm not sure, you know, how long it's going to to exist, but I think there's an argument that boots on the ground is not a requirement anymore like it would have been in the past, because you can find and track people through the technology, technological sophistication and evolution that we have seen in a way that didn't exist in the past. And let me hit you with this, this question, Buck, because I was thinking about it this morning as I was doing my prep when we did the first Gulf War, I think a lot of people thought, hey, we should have continued on. This is the one in 1990 ish. And we could have taken out Saddam Hussein. We didn't and then we went back in in 2003 and all of the disaster that that ensued from there. In today's technology, we would have just been able to wipe out Saddam Hussein without ever having to have the mass troops in the same way. And I wonder how that would have changed 1990 and 2003 if we had been able to decapitate Saddam Hussein like we did with the Ayatollah. And I do think that President Trump, who just said to Axios, Khomeini's son is a lightweight. This is there are reports that the Ayatollah's 40 some odd young son is going to be elevated. I have to be involved in the appointment. President Trump to Axios. I have to be involved in the appointment. So the current kid that they're trying to elevate, I say kid, he's in his 40s, according to Trump, is a lightweight. And Trump says I need to be involved in the choice that they make as to who the next leader is. So I think what you're seeing is the White House sees this as a Venezuela like situation. Now the wild card here is is it possible that there could be people out there who are rising up inside of Iran? You're skeptical on that, that it's more difficult without us being boots on the ground to actually have a regime change.
- [12:06]
Clay Travis
Well, I got to tell you, and we have so many veterans g. What veterans listening right now, many of whom serve tours of combat in Iraq, many of whom served multiple tours, spent years of their lives over there. And you start talking about using the Kurds as the cleanup force for Iran, which is being reported all over the place. Now, the White House has said, no, no, we're not confirming that. Not denying it. They're not confirming it. But everybody who remembers the rough days in Iraq knows that the Kurds, they have a utility, they are good allies for what they are in the areas that are Kurdish. But the moment that you start telling people who are non Kurdish that the Kurdish overlords, so to speak, have arrived, you get big problems. This there's big problems in Iraq and it could cause, I think, big problems in Iran. And I think that's why the administrator, the administration knows I don't think they're going to do that. I think they'll want the Kurds to just do what they did in Iraq, stabilize the more Kurdish portions of Iran. And, and the point here is, Clay, we got to find somebody else that has some kind of federalist unifying capability here to get them. First of all, you have to get out of. You have to oust the people who still have control of the guys with the guns, which has not happened yet. We've taken out the major military equipment. But until people aren't afraid that men with masks and AK47s will come in the middle of night and execute them in front of their families for speaking out, this thing is a long way from over. We have to get through that phase, which means we need somebody with ground, you know, ground strength of some. Of some level. And then we have to have somebody who will oversee a transition to elections and a. Basically, I think what they want is a constitutional monarchy rather. I think that would be the best situation. You bring back the Shah, you have a constitution, you have elections. The Shah is kind of a figurehead for a period of time. Maybe that's the way. But this is the big missing piece here. I mean, I feel much better about what's going to happen in Venezuela, or I should say higher confidence level about what's going to happen in Venezuela over the next three years than Iran. Right now. It's just an unknown.
- [14:23]
Buck Sexton
I think all that is. Is well said. Here's one thing that I would, I would say, I think the way we could get out is we declare victory. We allow someone that we don't think is, is actually anywhere near as bad as the Ayatollah to come to power. And here's the stick. The carrot is, okay, you're the new ruler of Iran. Here's the stick, Buck. We have demonstrated that we can kill any leader of Iran basically whenever the President of the United States or Israel decides to do so. And I would think that if you get a new ruler, that the president is in some way in favor of that. In the back of their mind, knowing, wait a minute, that could be me too, makes it far more likely that they are going to follow the direction of the President and I think to a large extent, Marco Rubio. And look, that's the deal that Dele Rodriguez has right now in Venezuela. They, if you read what happened there, they said, hey, we took Maduro. She was like, no way. And they were like, here's a video of him. He's in our possession. You either are going to work with us or we're going to take you out and prosecute you too. And I have to believe that those are the kind of conversations that are going to take place in Iran. Now, in an ideal world, you would end up with a constitutional monarchy and you would have sane rulers and you would have a brand new regime that comes in, and Iran would become a flourishing marketplace of ideas in a way that it was prior to the rise of the Islamic Republic. That might be too optimistic. So having a ruler that we know doesn't have the ability to get nuclear weapons is a supreme success. As we said yesterday, if we could go back in time and keep North Korea from having nuclear weapons, the world would be much safer here. We may well have done that for Iran. And what I come back to is this is the antithesis of what most politicians do. Most politicians just worry about the time when they're in office, and then they leave big messes for the next politician to have to try to clean up. Trump is making here, to his credit, a generational decision that he will not personally necessarily benefit from very much in the next two years and change that he has to be President of the United States. And that is actually incredibly commendable. Trump is trying to do a lot of things right now that I think are generational in nature that will not inure directly to his benefit. In fact, if you look, as you mentioned, at the price of gas in the short term, it honestly has a political cost that is more substantial for him than the benefit that he will get out of it.
- [17:10]
Clay Travis
We shall see. That's my biggest takeaway from all of this. People that are saying it's great, people that are saying it's terrible. No one knows yet. I have a lot of faith in Trump and his team, but it is faith. It is not a done deal. So let's see what they're able to pull off here. They have, just like with tariffs I said, Trump has earned the right to have us say, all right, sir, see this through. This is why we elected you. All right? If you took $20,000 from your savings account in 2006, exactly 20 years ago, and invested it into gold, just gold, it would be worth about $165,000 today. That's more than 800% increase over two decades. Smart Americans have been diversifying a portion of their savings into precious metals like gold for years. And you can, too, by the way, with global instability, concerns about oil markets, guess what? Gold tends to do well when the world gets worried. So now might be a really good time to get some gold. I mean, actual physical gold. Or Birch Gold Group can help you convert an existing IRA or 401k into an IRA in gold. Just text my name Buck to 989898 to receive your free info kit on gold. No obligation, just useful information. Text my name. B u c k to 9,898 98
- [18:28]
Buck Sexton
today making America great again isn't just one man, it's many. The Team 47 podcast Sundays at noon Eastern in the Clay and Buck Podcast feed. Find it on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [18:45]
Public Ad Read
Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc, SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete Disclosures available at public.comDisclosures running a
- [19:46]
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- [20:48]
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- [21:47]
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- [22:18]
Buck Sexton
number two Clay Travis Buck Sexton Show. We appreciate all of you hanging out with us. We're going to talk with Ryan Garduski in the third hour. We were just talking with y' all excellent in Israel in the first hour of the program. Let's talk about a couple of things here, Buck, that I think are interesting on the American political front. First of all, the fallout of what happened in the Texas primary on Tuesday has led to reports that President Trump is potentially going to endorse and that he is ready to have a nominee in the Senate in Texas. What is that telling us about the landscape in general? I think it is that President Trump is really seriously focused on preserving the majority in the Senate. The House, I think, is going to be more challenging because there are a lot of different races to focus on in the Senate. We've got a 53:47 advantage for the Republicans right now. Given that J.D. vance breaks the ties, that means that Democrats would have to pick up four different seats. And if you look at the way the landscape of the different states are setting up, Maine is going to be tough for Susan Collins. That is a blue state that I know they break it up and that there is a red part of that blue state. But Susan Collins seems to be almost the only Republican that can win in Maine right now, you've got a really difficult race shaping up in North Carolina, open Senate seat. Michael Watley is going to be going up against Roy Cooper. Roy Cooper is a popular former governor who has been elected statewide before. So that is going to be a, a tough battle. And then you've got Georgia, which is probably the best opportunity of Republicans to pick off an existing seat where Ossoff is running. But you start to run through all these different maps, and it almost becomes impossible for Democrats to win control of the Senate if Texas is preserved. And so I think President Trump is making a calculated decision about what exactly he wants to do to preserve that Senate majority. And you say, okay, what's going on with that Senate majority? I think there's a decent chance, Buck, that one of the older Supreme Court justices, maybe even more than one of the older Supreme Court justices, decides to step down, given the fact that we have basic majority, gets a Supreme Court justice, life tenure. I don't know how long it's going to be until Republicans have control of the Senate and the presidency again might happen this year, but you would like to have it happen for the next couple of years, given the ages that everybody is in the Senate right now. So there's going to be a lot of focus on the House. And we know what they will do. They will impeach. It will become difficult to get anything through Congress at all. I would argue it's very difficult to get everything through Congress now. But Ken Paxton, who we just reached out to to invite on the program, has just said he would drop out of the Senate race if the SAVE act were passed and they ended the filibuster in order to do so. I think this is an intriguing political situation that we're in because John Thune, now the leader of the Senate, is put on the, the hot seat a bit here because he knows that basically his preservation of a Senate majority is almost guaranteed if they pass the SAVE Act. But that is the, that is the challenge that we face. And again, we have an offer out to Paxton. There have been reports that Trump is going to endorse Cornyn, the sitting incumbent. One bit of update for all of you out there. There is a live press conference update in Austin, Texas, on the shooter that killed multiple people in an Austin night club bar shooting scene. And so we were run, we are running on that and we will get you an update on that information. Although, Buck, I think, as we said on the program, when you show up in a Iranian T shirt, kind of a suggestion that maybe you're acting out as a basis of terrorism for that, uh, behavior. So, uh, we will, uh, we will talk about all of that. Now. What's your assessment here, Buck, as you analyze this? Again, the Texas Senate, to me it's the larger story here is President Trump sees that Texas Senate seat. If it's in Republican hands, the map just doesn't add up for, for Democrats very easily. Maybe you get Maine, maybe you get North Carolina, you might be favored there. But then you would have to flip Ohio, you would have to flip Texas. We just had Steve Dane step down in Montana, but Montana would be a tough flip and that presumes that you win the toss ups in Trump states in Georgia, in Michigan, that kind of map. Iowa's out there too, but seems difficult. I think Trump feels if he has Texas in his back pocket, that the Senate majority is confirmed and I think that's motivating a lot of his actions.
- [27:50]
Clay Travis
Yeah, I think that the Senate's looking good for Republicans overall. I think that you are going to have a tougher time with the House. And this is the conventional wisdom that everyone has on this because it's probably going to be the case, I would say. James Talarico, here he is. This is cut seven. He says, they're going to call me a radical leftist and a fake Christian. Maybe because you are James. But let's talk about this place 7.
- [28:18]
Buck Sexton
They're scared of the movement we are building. They're going to throw everything they have at us. They're going to call me a radical leftist. They're going to call me a fake Christian. They'll call our movement Untexan, un American. They'll call us a threat. The only truth is we are a threat. We're a threat to their corrupt system. Two thousand years ago, when the powerful few at the top hurt those at the bottom. That barefoot rabbi didn't stay in his room and pray. He walked into the seat of power and flipped over the tables of injustice. To those who love this state, to those who love this country, to those who love our neighbors. It's time to start flipping tables.
- [29:04]
Clay Travis
Oh, just comparing himself to Jesus. This guy. Very humble, very humble fellow, James Talarico. This tweet has been getting more attention. This was him speaking, or rather tweeting after the Ahmaud Arbery case. He wrote, this is in 2020. White skin gives me and every white American immunity from the virus, but we spread it wherever we go, through our words, our actions and our systems. We don't have to be showing symptoms like a white hood or a Confederate flag to be contagious. Our inherent racism as white people, Clay, is contagious. And we have to seek to contain that contagion by just having our white skin. This guy doesn't think he's a leftist. I mean, I really want to ask the question between the God is trans or non binary. You got to trans the kids. Abortion is exactly what Jesus had in mind. Loves Jesus loves abortion. It's great to kill babies. And white skin is a form of contagion that pollutes society everywhere it goes. If these are all his positions, if he is not a leftist, who is a leftist? I want to know if he is not to the left of the Democrat party, who is?
- [30:25]
Buck Sexton
I'm just curious. I'm going to say this and some of you are going to say he can't be serious, Clay. I'm serious. I think he may be crazier than Jasmine Crockett.
- [30:33]
Clay Travis
Oh, no. I think so too. I think so too.
- [30:36]
Buck Sexton
It's possible that this guy is further left wing than Jasmine Crockett was. And I think he's crazier. I mean, he posted. Did you see this? I. I shared this in December of 2021. He said his favorite Christmas gift was a Dr. Fauci action figure. And he said that everybody in Texas needed to make sure that they got their Covid shot and had gotten their most recent round of boosters. December of 21. Yeah, that's. You know, December 21st is a lot of people, you know, March, April 2020, go back in time by May of 2020, somehow you and I were smart enough to be able to deduce everything that had to do with COVID So I'm giving people passes in March and April of 2020 and kind of the confusion of the moment. But by May of 2020, like the whole Covid game, the rig job should have been apparent if you were paying attention. December of 21, posting a Fauci action figure. You are a committed left winger and you mentioned this a little bit in the first hour. But. But I think Talarico actually is a interesting dynamic because it feels very much like Tim Walls. This is people who are leftist left wing women largely trying to pick guys that they think will appeal to normal guys and failing miserably because they don't understand how to talk to normal dudes. Remember when they try to call Tim Walls Coach Walls and they put him in the plaid shirt and they gave him a gun and they sent him out and they said, look, he wears boots. He's a totally normal guy. And then totally normal guys watched Tim Walls and they said, this is not a totally normal guy. James Talarico is a lesbian's idea of a white guy that will appeal to normal white guys and normal men out there.
- [32:36]
Clay Travis
Oh, no. To Christian, to Christians specifically. Just because he does the I talk about Jesus thing, he's going to appeal to anybody who believes in Jesus. This is the New York Times editorial board version of a white Christian guy from Texas who other people who go to Christian, Christian churches are going to find common ground with. It's. It's absurd. Again, they just have no idea. It's like, it's like a different species to them.
- [33:04]
Buck Sexton
It's different, like alien life. They're trying to translate a language that they don't really understand and find someone who they think can speak to people that they recognize they have lost. And so I just don't think there's going to be any, any ability here whatsoever to, to, to corral voters. Now, on the Paxton front and the, and the Cornyn front, I think this is a tactical decision from Trump that he wants to allocate resources so that we can make a real run in Michigan. He knows that Georgia is going to be pick up a bull. He knows that Maine and North Carolina are going to be super difficult battlegrounds. And you got Ohio and Iowa and, and Texas and Montana and all these other different states. And he's trying to figure out how we can spend the least amount of money necessary in Texas to win this race. And I think Trump has been convinced that that is by him endorsing John Cornyn. Now, Cornyn beat Paxton by a small margin of votes in the primary. And I believe what happened was the Cornyn people went back to Trump and they said Ken Paxton wasn't able to beat us head to head in the Republican primary. You have to get over 50% support in order to be the official nominee. So we have the runoff in late May, and they are saying he's not going to be able to beat us in May either, whether you believe that or not. And then there's going to be a hundred million dollars spent or more in this additional primary potentially. And then you're going to have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars more if Paxton is the nominee in order to, to beat Talarico. Now, here's what I would say. I think whoever the Republican nominee is is going to be Tal Rico. I think they're going to raise a lot of money for him, just like they did for Beto But I think this guy is actually a far less appealing version of Beto. I think he's crazier. I think he's got further left wing opinions.
- [35:14]
Clay Travis
Just say Beto's a little more handsome.
- [35:16]
Buck Sexton
You're, you're, you're admitting Beto's a better looking guy.
- [35:20]
Clay Travis
Better looking guy. You know, Beto in those Wrangler jeans, a little more, a little more exciting to the ladies and some of the guys than, than Talarico is. So, you know, we can just call it out. We'll say, say it like it is. But I, I think that this guy is, I think this guy is toast in the election. I think there's no chance. And now you should never say that. Texans, you need to show up, you need to vote, you need to make sure that this doesn't end up happening. But they're not even running a passable version of a Texas centrist in this campaign. They're running an ardent leftist. I mean, he is a leftist. There's no way around that. Just because you talk about God doesn't mean you aren't a leftist. In fact, there are a lot of people, I can speak from the Catholic Church side of this. There are a lot of commie Catholics running around, including in the clergy, which is very disappointing.
- [36:11]
Buck Sexton
Well, I think also you could see where Jasmine Crockett had a base, black female voters in particular. We're going to show up for her in a substantial way. I'm not sure what James Talarico's base is. And so again, I think either Paxton or Cornyn would win. But I do believe that now that we're in sort of strategic season for analyzing. There's been a lot of talk about the quality of Senate nominees in different states. And we've talked about this before in Georgia. Republicans have lost three straight Senate races that they should have won just point blank. Three straight Senate races in Georgia were all winnable. Warnock and Ossoff are not great candidates. And Georgia Republicans have not been able to get across the finish line because they haven't had good enough nominees. Meanwhile, Brian Kemp wins by eight points. Every other office in the state, overwhelmingly comfortable, wins. We got to get better nominees across the board. And so I think this is the, this is the strategic analysis. We'll open up phone lines. A lot of Texans will have strong thoughts on this. We also have invited Paxton and Cornyn both on the program as this is playing out in real time. But in the meantime, you heard us talk with Yale X scene just a little bit ago. Conflict in the Middle east is putting Israeli citizens in harm's way. Again. The threat is real and it's intense. And as a result, we need as many bomb shelters in Israel as possible. We need as many places underground to be able to, to keep people safe. They've got hospitals underground now. We saw what they have to do because they're so afraid of bombs hitting hospitals. We need life saving food, first aid and emergency essentials. The IFCJ is helping to ensure hospitals, emergency rooms and shelters are stocked with critical medical supplies, aid focused on Israel's most vulnerable, the sick, the elderly, children, families. But the fellowship needs your most generous gift today to make this work possible. To rush your gift, call 888-488 IFCJ. That's 888-488-IFCJ. You can also go online at IFCJ.org that's IFCJ.org stories of freedom, stories of America. Inspirational stor all each day, spend time with Clay and Buck. Find them on the free I hard radio app or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome back in Clay Travis Buck Sexton show. You know, Buck, there's a lot of good news out there and I don't think we discussed this on the program yet. I saw this and I thought to myself, you know what, we should dive into this. And I meant to mention it a day or so ago, but your home state of Florida, I know there's a lot of frustration out there. People say, oh, you know, what's the impact? Nothing ever changes. It doesn't matter who wins races. It's all going to turn into, I think a, sometimes people just get so much negativity running. And I do think this is important and worth breaking down. Florida voter registration. Did you see this? This is from a guy named Michael Pruser who does the data on this. Let me hit you with some numbers because I think Governor Ron DeSantis and a lot of the Republican Floridian establishment has not gotten enough attention. And I do believe the story of Florida is occurring across many different states simultaneously. According to the most recent numbers that came out, this is the beginning of March. So through the end of February, Republicans now have an advantage of nearly 1.5 million overall voters in the state. That is 5.5 million registered Republicans in Florida. There are now about 4.4 million registered Democrats. Now that's a pretty impressive overall outcome. But what's interesting, Buck, is if you go back to just, let's see, just 2016, right as Trump was coming into office, right before DeSantis came into office. There were just 4.5 million registered Republicans and there were 4.9 million registered Democrats. So Democrats have lost about 500,000 and Republicans have added roughly a million. Palm beach county, which was used to be a bastion of the Democrat Party, is going to flip red very soon. I believe that will leave only three counties, three or four counties total, that even have a Democrat majority. So if you're out there and you're frustrated and I get it, and you say, hey, who gets elected doesn't matter. And I know there are some of you out there in the market because we hear from them all the time. Florida, I think, is an incredible story about what happens when there are good policies put in place, when there are smart, committed Republican leaders put in place, and when they execute. And I would argue right now that Florida is the base of the Republican Party. And for those of you out there who can remember Florida as the ultimate swing state battleground in all of the nation, it's really kind of incredible to see and sometimes we miss progress that is occurring because it's easier to focus on negative stories and it's easier to be upset on a day to day basis. But Florida is one of the greatest success stories in Republican Party history. If you look at what's happened over the last decade and you as a Floridian now Buck, are part of that, a mass influx of people, I actually think Florida is poised to become even more of a leader in Republican Party circles going forward. It's really an incredible story and I don't think it gets talked about enough in a positive way.
- [42:21]
Clay Travis
No, I think it's fantastic. It's obviously I live here and I'm so pleased to see how well everything is going. So the numbers speak for themselves. Fortress Florida is stronger than ever. Ron DeSantis, who has stepped away from the national spotlight a bit in the last couple of years, but he has done a phenomenal job as governor and I think there's still some very worthwhile stuff that he's trying to get through in his last year. And it just shows you that you can have reasonable, competent people in charge of state government. It is a thing that can happen and it's a good thing when it happens. It makes people safer, it makes businesses more prosperous, it makes your day to day life more efficient. The streets are cleaner. I mean, all these things that you'd like to think all government is doing at some level, or rather all necessary government is functioning in a way to make your life better or at least not make your life worse. And unfortunately, In New York City, I experienced the other side of this. So I know what it is like on both sides of this coin. I know what it's like to be in a place, New York, where the people in charge are in some cases ideologically dedicated to destroying your quality of life and taking from you and blaming you for the problems that some of their policies are exacerbating. And I've seen the other side of it where you are welcomed. And if you are law abiding, you have the benefit of law enforcement around you. So therefore you get to lead a safer, more orderly and more pleasant existence. And that is what we have in Florida. So, yeah, man, it's great. And, and I just, the people that are still holding out in some of these other places who are, I'm not talking about the Republicans who live in California. I get it. You got family there. You love your state. It's a beautiful state. You want to go. I mean, the Democrats who are still in these states who don't get it, I don't understand what they don't get at this point. Well, I do. It's a delusion, like a manufactured delusion, which is a fantastic book that all of you should get from the New York Times bestseller list last week. I highly recommend it.
- [44:32]
Buck Sexton
I it is a spectacular book. I told it sold many copies. And I do believe that one of the big untold stories right now is Florida is an example of the census and how the census is going to swing in a really transformative way for the map. The map is not going to change until 2030. But the legacy of COVID when you look at what's happened with Texas, with Tennessee, with Florida, there are a lot of other states to point to as well is Democrats ability to win nationwide elections is going to be severely curtailed starting in 2030. Now, 2028 is still going to be a battle that's fought on, frankly, a map that has shifted in Republican Party directions. But all of this is going to be, I think, a super important story that is not getting enough attention. And buck, this doesn't even take into account what I think the Supreme Court is going to do. And again, this is not being, I'm trying to be positive here because there's so many things that I think don't get enough attention. I was thinking about the Florida numbers and the, the fact that people are voting with their feet because of the leadership of Ron DeSantis and others. But also look at what the Supreme Court's likely to do when it comes to race based congressional districts. I don't think they're going to give their ruling in time to impact the 2026 midterm cycle because I think they're going to say it's too political. But they, I believe are going to do away with race based congressional districts. Right now it is considered constitutional to say, hey, we're going to have a majority black district and we'll draw that district so that it encompasses all these different interstates and neighborhoods. And you look at some of the most gerrymandered communities out there, many of them are race based drawn districts for black voters. The country has actually become so much more diverse with Hispanic and Asian and, and, and other people of different backgrounds that this black white dynamic in black based districts I think are not going to be allowed. And you say, okay Clay, what's your, what's the impact of that going to be by 2028 that could swing 20 seats towards Republicans because those districts being not able to be gerrymandered that way. So if you think about that ruling, which I think is going to come down this summer, and then you think about what's going to happen with the 2030 census and using Florida as an example of how population has shifted the map for 2030 and beyond is going to be massively in favor of red states. And here's something else. I think the acceleration of voters from blue states is going to move even faster because if you look at the budgets of New York and California, for example, they spend way more than a state like Florida or Texas, big states would spend and they get far weaker results. And I think that is all going to again, this is big picture talking. Next five, six years, all of that is going to, that transformation is going to occur even more rapidly. So I understand a lot of people out there saying, and I get it because I'm impatient, I want things to happen as quickly as they possibly can. I don't think that we're talking enough about how much difference that's going to make in the years ahead. Now should we still pass the SAVE act and ensure that that federal elections are reliable and that we do something crazy like require somebody to show up with a photo, photo ID in order to vote yes. That is a non, non negotiable to me it should happen. And I understand how that can be frustrating when things like that aren't happening. But I do think the larger trend lines here are not being talked about enough. And they are incredibly favorable. And this is what good governance does. People do notice and they vote with their Feet
- [48:45]
Odoo Ad Read
indeed.
- [48:46]
Clay Travis
That is excellent. Clay's good at the whole stump speech thing. Everybody think he's getting any ideas? Could be kind of a wide open field in 2028. Laura, we should talk. I'd be a great chief of staff. I'm just saying. I'm just throwing it out there. Mr. Clay Travis, you have the political gift of gab, sir. I feel like I'm ready to move to Tennessee and I live in Florida. It's already great here.
- [49:08]
Buck Sexton
I just think that, again, results really do matter. And sometimes it's frustrating when you don't see those results in real time. Look at Florida. It really is a great story.
- [49:20]
Clay Travis
You've never lived in a deeply dysfunctional. Well, I shouldn't say that you lived
- [49:26]
Buck Sexton
in D.C. but wait, we got breaking news. Wow.
- [49:32]
Clay Travis
Oh, boy.
- [49:33]
Buck Sexton
I was asking. I was asking Buck if we should bring this up because there was a bunch of noise.
- [49:38]
Clay Travis
I've got the vapors. I've got the vapors.
- [49:41]
Buck Sexton
Bucks, bucks. Good.
- [49:42]
Clay Travis
Christine Gnome has been fired, everybody. Christine Ohm has been fired. They're telling me.
- [49:45]
Buck Sexton
Oh.
- [49:46]
Clay Travis
Oh, Lord. Man.
- [49:48]
Buck Sexton
This is the first cabinet secretary to be removed from office. We were talking off air about the fact that the odds in the prediction markets had gone to 90% that she was out. Wall Street Journal has really kind of come after her with a bunch of stories about spending. And so Christy turns out, turns out
- [50:07]
Clay Travis
someone who's, who's corrupt, cheats on her husband and shoots dogs for fun isn't the best person to put in charge of maybe your most important federal agency. I'm glad the administration is moving in the right direction here.
- [50:18]
Buck Sexton
So now who is going to be the DHS secretary? That's going to be the next question. So Christy Noem out. That's breaking news just came up on Fox News as an alert. There's a possibility, I guess, that Tom Homan could be. Could slide, I should say alleged, by
- [50:33]
Clay Travis
the way, with all of that. Alleged. These are all allegations, of course. Yes. Christine is going to step down and Tom Holman's taking over.
- [50:41]
Buck Sexton
Maybe. I don't know. I'm not sure who that next person is going to be. Breaking news. We'll come back and talk about who might be. Oh, wow. She's being replaced by Mark Wayne Mullen, Oklahoma senator.
- [50:56]
Clay Travis
There we go.
- [50:56]
Buck Sexton
Just, just on the show this week. Friend of the show, Mark Wayne Mullen. That's according to breaking news from. From Fox News. Senator from Oklahoma will now take over as the head of dhs.
- [51:10]
Clay Travis
Apparently the hearing was disastrous from Republican and Democrat sides of things. We didn't really cover the hearing. But Noem had a hearing on Capitol Hill. She was asked about a special government employee who travels with her who is not her husband. And that did not go over well. She was asked a number of things that did not go over well, including a $200 million ad campaign starring her. That's taxpayer dollars, everybody. $200 million.
- [51:35]
Buck Sexton
So, President Trump, this is big news. So look, we're going to go to break. We'll come back and we'll talk about it. This is the first Cabinet Secretary in 2.0. There's been a lot of stability so far. This is the first cabinet secretary out. Michael Walls has shifted. Right. They moved him to ambassador to the UN If I'm not mistaken, from inside of the government. So that's the biggest move prior to now. But again, breaking news. Kristi Noem out. And Senator Mark Wayne Mullen of Oklahoma up now to be the new head of dhs. We'll talk about that when we come back. Again, breaking news coming down right now as we speak.
- [52:12]
Clay Travis
I just love to see this Trump administration making smart decisions and doing the best thing for the American people and for the mission. That's where I come down on this.
- [52:20]
Buck Sexton
Buck and Kristi Noem, not exactly best chums for those of you who have been longtime listeners to the program. Rain, snow, a hot searing sun, hurricane like winds, every one of these things contribute to your roof. Aging starts with a leak and goes downhill from there. Erie Home is here to help as we get into spring. Erie home is a 50 year old company specializing in making sure your roof is in excellent shape. That name again, Erie Home. They start by providing a free roof inspection. Take advantage of the offer. They will inspect your roof for any problems free of charge using a 25 point inspection they've developed over many years in business. If your roof needs a replacement, Erie Home offers all kinds of options including the use of newer metal materials that are made to mimic the look of the roof you likely have now. These new metal materials and allow your new roof to last up to two or three times longer than traditional shingle roofs with proper care and maintenance. Your new roof from Erie Home comes with a 50 year transferable warranty. So if you sell your home, you're providing even more value in the selling process. Schedule your free inspection@eriehome.com clay today and get a discount off the installation price. That's E r I e home.com Clay ErieHome.com Clay discount maximized at twelve hundred dollars. So over a thousand dollars off ErieHome.com Clay valid on new roofing installations only. Minimum purchase required. Restrictions apply. C rep for warranty or promotional details. That's E r I e home.com Clay. You ain't imagining it. The world has gone insane. Reclaim your sanity with Clay and Buck. Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [54:16]
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- [57:19]
Clay Travis
Klay and Buck kicks off now. Our friend Ryan Graduski joins us. He is the host. It's a Numbers Game, a fantastic podcast breaking down all the data in politics. You can be smarter than all your friends about what's happening in these elections and the polls and all the things going on. Check out It's a Numbers Game on the Clay and Buck Podcast Network. Ryan, thank you for being back with us. I want to get to Texas. I want to get to all that stuff. But first I have to ask you, you might have heard the big breaking news. Christy Noem, fired from DHS and has some actually, Clay, do you want to read what the job is that she's now being moved to? Because it's, it's a doozy. Go ahead.
- [57:58]
Buck Sexton
Yes, President Trump has posted on Truth Social. And by the way, we should mention she's speaking right now here in Nashville. So they demoted her and then she's going directly in front of the media right now to speak so here in Nashville. So that seems like a difficult spot. Where I am Here is what President Trump posted. I am pleased to announce the highly respected United States Senator from the great state of Oklahoma, Mark Wayne Mullen, will become the United States Secretary of Homeland Security effective March 31, 2026. The current Secretary, Kristi Noem, who have served us well and has had numerous and spectacular results, especially on the border, will be moving to be special envoy for the Shield of the Americas, our new security initiative in the Western Hemisphere. We are announcing on Saturday in Doral, Florida. I thank Christy for her service at Homeland and then a very strong endorsement of Mark Wayne Mullen as her replacement. Again, she is speaking right now, Ryan.
- [59:09]
Clay Travis
Has she been sent to the archives? Because special envoy to something I've never heard of before doesn't sound that good.
- [59:14]
Political Analyst/Guest
Yes, she might as well be ambassador to Greece. That's how much she's on the outs. This has been the rumors about Kristi Noem and the dislike on Christine Ome has been going on basically since she became DHS secretary. The very expensive four foot long weaves and wigs and the press conferences. And it's been a lot, a lot of people haven't liked her association, quote unquote, with a former Trump campaign manager. Cory Lewandowski has not done favors from anyone in the interior of the Trump administration. The close people associated with him who do not like Corey Lewandowski. So there was a lot going. And basically what Trump said is he accused her of lying to Congress, which is a federal crime. He said that he knew nothing about the $200 million ad featuring Kristi Noemi. I don't know. I imagine there'll be another congressional investigation if Democrats take the House.
- [60:08]
Buck Sexton
Yeah, this is a, this is interesting. Again, she's speaking right now and I would just suggest to you,
- [60:19]
Clay Travis
she tried to throw, she tried to throw Trump under the bus is actually what happened here. She got caught with her hand in the till $200 million of Kristi Noem's face everywhere. You're a government employee. Like you're not running for office right now. And she says, well, Trump said it was okay. And Trump is saying, I did not say that was okay.
- [60:38]
Buck Sexton
So it is a, it is a mess. This is the first cabinet secretary to, to lose his or her job. And again, if you're looking on the Senate side, Ryan, confirmation for senators who rise to or ascend, or I guess it could theoretically be a demotion depending on your perspective. But usually it's seen as a promotion to become cabinet secretaries. Usually they get confirmed fairly rapidly as sort of a Senate nod in their direction. And so I would think this will not be something that gets bogged down in a significant way. But what it does mean is Oklahoma is going to need a new senator in what is a fairly even United States Senate right now.
- [61:27]
Political Analyst/Guest
Yeah. And I haven't had a chance to look at the process of how they either appoint or nominate a senator. Remember, the senator, the current governor of Oklahoma, is very moderate, especially on immigration. He's said that he doesn't believe that illegals are going to vote or the Democrats want illegals to vote. And he has been very complimentary towards illegal aliens. There is another candidate running for governor who has called for basically unvetted immigration. So Oklahoma and James Lankford worked with Biden on a bill that would have given them, you know, 5,000 illegals crossing a day. Oklahoma, for a conservative state, is not always elected the best people. Mark Wayne Mullen is definitely the most conservative member of the delegation. So it'll be sad to see him go, but it will be very interesting who is his replacement.
- [62:15]
Buck Sexton
More details coming out here. Bill Malusion reports. Senator Kennedy of Louisiana had that contentious back and forth, said that when he told Trump about it, Trump was, quote, mad as a murder hornet that Kristi Noem claimed he approved the $200 million ad contract. Kennedy said he was upset by that contract. He called the White House, told them in advance he was going to press her on that at the hearing. And the White House was not opposed to it. So this feels a little bit like a political hit where Senator Kennedy, who is a Republican, usually you guys all watch these hearings, usually Republican witnesses, cabinet members, are treated pretty kindly by the party that is the same as theirs and grilled on the opposite side. When this hearing, as Buck mentioned last hour, kind of went off the rails a little bit and Republicans came after her, it was a sign that there was disapproval on both sides. And now again, Mark Wayne Mullen is in and Kristi Noem is out.
- [63:29]
Clay Travis
I would just add to this, Ryan, that it's not over Minneapolis. From what we can tell, Minneapolis seems to have played very little. Now, I'm sure that that's, you know, you could say that that was compounded into all of this. But it's not that she messed up the messaging in Minneapolis, which I think she certainly did. It's that when push came to shove, she tried to shove Trump under the bus because there's no way to justify a $220 million ad budget starring you as a government employee about a government program.
- [64:01]
Political Analyst/Guest
Yeah, it was as I said before, there have been a number of people who really question why she ever got the job. They dad never liked her in that position. They didn't like her with her. I mean, south park humorized it very well. But the fact that she has this exp. Makeup ads and these expensive makeup jobs and these giant weaves and is on television every 32nd kind of promoting herself, that it doesn't come as a shock that they did not oppose Senator Kennedy wanting to Ask her about this. And it's. Yeah, it sounds like this is there. There's been a lot of blood, no love lost between the two for a very, very long.
- [64:44]
Clay Travis
I just, I bring this up, Clay, just because to me, it's. Trump is loyal to people who are loyal to him. And Kristi Noem's main asset had been an unflinching loyalty to Donald Trump. I will say that for her, she was unflinchingly loyal to Donald Trump because she thought it benefited her. And then when she got grilled and the heat was on, she turned on Trump and Trump said, see you later. That's what I see happening here.
- [65:06]
Buck Sexton
So I don't, I don't disagree either. Ryan, I'm going to ask you about the larger Senate issues at play, because now Mark Wayne Mullen factors in a bit here. But Senator Fetterman has already said, as a member of the Homeland Security Committee, ranking member of the subcommittee, I'm not sure how many of my fellow Democrats will vote to support Mullen as the next DHS secretary, but I am, I. So he is saying a Y e. He is saying that he is, yes. Which would get us theoretically to 54. I don't think you can overlook sometimes these Cabinet battles can get really contentious. It sounds like Trump is making a choice here for somebody that he thinks will get confirmed quite easily coming out of the Senate. But let's talk about the Senate here for a minute, Ryan. Texas, this is what we initially had you on to talk about. We know that Maine and North Carolina, where there are Republican senators currently in position, there are going to be tough battles. Right. Susan Collins and the open seat in North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan and maybe to an extent, Minnesota, there's been some optimism that Republicans could put Democrat seats in play, but really, so long as Republicans keep Texas, Iowa, Montana, states like that, Ohio and Alaska. Good one. To bring up how much of what's going on right now in Texas is really just about the Trump White House saying we need to make sure that Texas is not a seat on the board. Because if you take Texas off, the math starts to get more difficult.
- [66:50]
Political Analyst/Guest
Yeah, I mean, listen, part of it is, is that Paxton underperformed. He did very poorly in this primary. Cornyn spent a fortune, but to his credit, he was polling in the low 30s and ended up coming up number one. Had Cornyn come out with 30%, as some of the polls said, I'm sure this call would not be being made right now. But Paxton underperformed polling. He was up by 5 and 6 points in most polls. He ended up being down by a point and a half. Paxton had the fight of his life and I'll give. Sorry, Cornyn did at the fight of his life. And I give credit to the old man. He came out slugging and he won. So there is no. Had he come in a second or a distant second, he would not be getting this treatment right now. But you can't. I said this in my podcast episode that comes out tomorrow for a numbers game. Do you remember a single moment during this campaign where Paxton actually had a viral moment, had a reason for running for office, sat there and really nailed down why Cornyn was an insufficient Republican senator? I don't remember it and I pay attention all the time. Paxton was completely mia and I talked to people in Texas who said he is a very lazy campaigner and he's overly exaggerated constantly. And there was a case to be made against Cornyn and. But Paxton doesn't look like he was ever going to be the one to really work for it the way that it was needed to be.
- [68:15]
Clay Travis
Can we. Can we, Clay, let's, let's keep Ryan through to talk Talarico and the general here in a second because I want to talk to you about those numbers, Talarico, how that all plays out, these clips. Ryan, I mean, you've heard some of them. We might even play one or two when we come back. They're wild. The stuff that this taller Rico guy says, I mean, it's pretty astonishing. So stay through with us if you can. It's a Numbers Game is Ryan's podcast. We'll talk about the Texas general matchup up, as well as how this primary continues to play out and the gen and the overall Senate picture. We'll return to that here with Ryan Garduski in a second.
- [68:46]
Buck Sexton
Clay, no doubt when you switch your cell phone service from AT&T, Verizon or T Mobile to Pure Talk, you're saving hundreds of dollars a year without sacrificing inequality. For 25 bucks a month, Pure Talk gives you unlimited talk text, plenty of data. Pure Talk cellular service on the best nationwide 5G network available. Their customer service, even better, the entire team, all US based, no contract, no cancellation fee. Now's the time to make the switch. Grab your cell phone and dial £250, say the keywords clay and Buck. Pure Talks team can help you switch in 15 minutes or less. Dial pound 250, say Clay and Buck, and you'll also save 50% off your first month. Pure Talk, America's wireless company. That's pound 250, say Clay and Buck. News and politics, but also a little comic relief. Clay Travis and Buck Sexton. Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcast.
- [69:48]
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- [71:18]
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Buck Sexton
from Are youe a Charlotte Podcast.
- [71:52]
Washable Sofas Ad Read
I just had the most epic girls day cruising around LA with my friend Heather Graham and thanks to Hyundai, we even recorded a special episode for you. Sex and the City got me into Magnolia Bakery Cupcakes, which I'm obsessed with. The last time we did a Hyundai film we went to the Magnolia. We sat on the bench. My new episode is out now, presented by the all new Hyundai Palisade Hybrid. Make every day epic.