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The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
David Rutherford Show: "Buckle Up!" — Anthony Pompliano On Bitcoin, Oil, and How Iran Could Collapse The Markets
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- [00:00]
Anthony Pompliano
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
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- [03:14]
Anthony Pompliano
$77 five days ago it went to almost 120, then it went back down to 77 and now it's at 92. I mean this thing is all over the place. And normally if something like the Iran conflict kick off, the US and Israel are bombing, the straight of Hermos is closed. You know, all these kind of complexities. Oil would be at 120 or 150. And so the question then becomes, okay, you can do certain things to mitigate a skyrocketing oil price, but how long can you do that?
- [03:41]
Dave Rutherford
Yes.
- [03:42]
Anthony Pompliano
And so I think the question around what is the impact of oil on inflation is really just like how long does the Iran situation happen and how long is that straight closed for? If it's four weeks, it's not going to be fun. But hey, it's not going to have a massive impact if we start talking six months. Buckle up.
- [04:10]
Dave Rutherford
Welcome back to the show, everybody. Today's guest is someone that I've really been excited in preparation to come on, Mr. Anthony Pompliano. Jordy, our producer, worked with Pomp for about five years and speaks with such a high degree of respect for him. And after being introduced and getting familiar with his content, I believe he's probably the best person on bitcoin that's out in the industry right now. And so, but what's really phenomenal is his comprehensive understanding of, of the markets, what's taking place in geopolitical events. So we're just going to jump right in and get straight to the heart. Mr. Pompliano, thank you so much for coming on, sir.
- [04:56]
Anthony Pompliano
Yeah, well, Dave, thanks for having me. And obviously I think very highly of you and of Jordy, so I appreciate the invitation.
- [05:02]
Dave Rutherford
Awesome. Awesome. All right, let's just jump right into this. There's a tremendous amount of volatility taking place and you know, I think it really began last April with The Trump's announcements of, of, of tariffs and what we saw the hit, how it hit the bond market and other places. We, we've had a massive fluctuation in bitcoin, a massive fluctuation in oil, gold. Across the, the, the markets. We're seeing volatility. You recently had a guy on named Jeff park that I thought was pretty fascinating because he began to use a phrase called wartime bitcoin. Can you describe what he means by that in the greater context of what we're seeing geopolitically right now?
- [05:47]
Anthony Pompliano
Well, look, I think that, you know, bitcoin has gone through a, a very large evolution, if you will. So if you go back 15, frankly, the only people who were interested in bitcoin were nerds, crazy people or criminals. And if you didn't fit in one of those three buckets, you probably weren't into bitcoin, right? The thing was trading for pennies. It was kind of a wild idea. There was not a lot of exchange or venues where you could go and acquire it. It required some degree of technical understanding for you to be able to custody this thing. And there was a lot of questions around, is it going to survive? Will it thrive? Is there going to be some sort of government crackdown, you know, all these things over maybe the next seven or eight years. You then started to get into what I call like the early adopter phase. And in that early adopter phase, that was people who like, okay, maybe I'm not as crazy, maybe I'm not a criminal, but I have a little bit of technical understanding. I'm intellectually curious and I like to be first, right? I like to be early to things. And so as we kind of went through this now if you fast forward to today, well, that evolution has got Larry Fink from BlackRock talking about this, Jamie Dimon, the mainstream media, Fidelity, all these folks are into bitcoin. And so I think that what you've really seen is you've seen bitcoin go from, you know, kind of a newborn child to now it is a full fledged adult that's ready to stand on its own. Now, during that 15 years, we've had a lot happen in the world. If you think about, you know, coming out of the global financial crisis when bitcoin was built, there obviously was kind of the decade long run in software and, and technology where bitcoin thrived. Then you had Covid where there was really what I would consider kind of the first big test in terms of a kind of global event that bitcoin had to weather and then come out the other side of. And then it even was able, survived the hiking of interest rates at the fastest pace in history in 2022. And we get to today. And so as you navigate all of that, one of the things in America that you would understand probably better than most is we for 20 something years had the persistent backdrop of we were at war. There's very few years where the United States has not been at war. But historically, bitcoin has been in the market while war was already going on. So kind of war started, years went by, and then bitcoin was introduced. I think what we're watching right, is really bitcoin has now done two things. One, it is big enough where people are paying attention. So it's a, you know, trillion and a half to $2 trillion, depending on the price. But two is it's held by people who are not just the crazy people on the Internet anymore. When it was a crazy thing on the Internet that was held by individuals. Those people don't really care what interest rates are. They don't care what's going on geopolitically. They just say, look, I'm buying bitcoin. When I earn more money in my next paycheck, I'm buying more bitcoin. And no matter what you tell me, I don't like the government, I don't like the central bank, I'm buying bitcoin. Well, now if you have macro hedge funds or large financial institutions that are holding bitcoin, they're looking at a portfolio. And so Maybe they have 1, 3, 5% in Bitcoin. But if all of a sudden the strait of Hormuz gets closed and gas prices start to go up because oil prices are going up and there's worries about certain impact on the economy, well, maybe they start to go risk off. And if they go risk off, then they may sell some assets like a bitcoin. What's unique though is that bitcoin has not sold off. Actually, bitcoin has held in there really, really strong. And so it tells you that maybe people are expecting a little levels of inflation and they think that bitcoin could be a good inflation hedge. But I think that's the complexity. Now this went from kind of a, a ludites win where just buy bitcoin all the time, regardless of the cost of capital or, or, or what's going on in the world to now you have a lot more people holding bitcoin that are trying to figure out, you know, where does this fit in a portfolio. And how should I think about my capital allocation?
- [09:21]
Dave Rutherford
Thank you. That, that, that's a great introduction to it for my audience. You know, I think one of the interesting things I, that I'm seeing mostly with the volatility of the markets right now is everybody's super focused on oil and they're saying if we get over what, 120 to $150 a barrel, we're guaranteed recession. People are talking about a potential depression if we hit 200. Right. Because of all the residual impacts of how it's going to affect the supply chain out of China. If China's struggling to get more oil or India or where it might be, the reverberations of, of that pinch is going to have long lasting, deep impacts. I've heard you describe your confidence that if this war or conflict, however you want to describe it, is what the administration is saying it's going to be, which is another four to six weeks and then over that you don't believe it's going to have as great an impact as, as people are predicting. Is that true?
- [10:34]
Anthony Pompliano
Well, one way to think about impacts on inflation is things take time to work through the economy. So let's go to tariffs, maybe as an example, and then we can talk about oil. When the tariffs got levied in April of 2025, I think that people immediately thought inflation was just going to spike overnight. But if you think about how this works is when those tariffs get levied, there's already a bunch of products that are on ships or cargo planes on the way to the United States. And so do they get here before the tariffs actually get put in place or do they not? Well, that depends on what is the price change going to be. Right. There's contracts that are already in place where prices haven't been adjusted yet based on the new kind of economic policies. And so I think that as you see these policies work their way through the economy, you can then say, okay, maybe over a six month period or a 12 month period, then you really start to see the impact of it. If you look at those tariffs, one of the things that was really interesting was I continue to say, hey, tariffs are not inflationary, they're deflationary. That was not a very popular thing to say, but I think now the data is pretty overwhelming that that's true. But people didn't finally conclude, okay, maybe the tariffs aren't going to be as inflationary until kind of the end of Q3 last year. And that's because they knew, well, if you put the Tariffs in place in April, the inflation should start to hit in Q3. Oh, wait, the inflation's not here. Right. And so it took a while for people to kind of conclude there. Now, if you go to the oil market, what is unique is actually gas at the pump has significantly increased already. We have seen gas in America increase by about 62 cents since February 28th. So $3.60 a gallon as of this morning. And the reason why that's important is because actually, oil is much, much more sensitive now. I think what is happening in the market is people are trying to figure out, well, what should the price of a barrel of oil be? Right. You know, I was looking this morning at oil was $77. Five days ago it went to almost 120, then it went back down to 77, and now it's at 92. I mean, this thing is all over the place. And a reason for that is normally if something like the Iran conflict kick off, the US And Israel are bombing, the Strait of Hermos is closed, all these kind of complexities, oil would be at 120 or 150. But the United States went and took Maduro out of Venezuela. And so we've got kind of access to even more oil than what we produce ourselves. But on top of that, we also have gotten some of the leading developed nations around the world. You can think of this as Western nations who have now come out and said that they are willing to release over 400 million barrels into the global supply. And so the question then becomes, okay, you can do certain things to mitigate a skyrocketing oil price, but how long can you do that? And so I think the question around what is the impact of oil on inflation is really just like, how long does the Iran situation happen and how long is that straight closed for? If it's, you know, four weeks, it's not gonna be fun, but hey, it's not gonna have a massive impact if we start talking six months, buckle up, right? I think, you know, oil goes much higher then. I think that the inflation conversation definitely does become a bigger part of, you know, what everyone's worried about, you know,
- [13:38]
Dave Rutherford
to, to hit that, the inflation aspect. Obviously, Powell is probably on his way out. I mean, Trump's tagged another guy. You know, do you think we need a rate cut in order to stabilize this if it does lengthen out? Or what would your be prediction be? Cause, I mean, obviously we had a pathetic jobs number report that came out earlier this week. And. And so how would you move if you were all of A sudden tagged to be ahead of the Fed, what would you do?
- [14:12]
Anthony Pompliano
Well, I think that there are two real jobs that the Fed has, right? One is to maintain some degree of like maximum and then also to steady prices. And I think what people are always looking at the Fed and frankly incorrectly critiquing them for is they are looking at the Fed and they're saying what is the static thing in the moment in time? So what is the CPI metric or what is the monetary policy or what is going on with economic policy, et cetera. What is much more important in my opinion is looking at the direction of travel of these things. And so if you look at the government metrics, I pretty much, when I hear the Bureau of Labor Statistics put out a metric, I immediately just say, stop listening. There's no way that that thing is accurate, right?
- [14:58]
Dave Rutherford
Especially because every like two months later they downgraded or adjust the numbers so dramatically.
- [15:04]
Anthony Pompliano
Well, so there's the adjustments, but like I'll maybe highlight a couple of issues with the inflation calculation as maybe just one example. So in the country we have something known as a CPI metric, which is inflation and that is the consumer price index. And, and the way that that is calculated basically requires them to go get data, bring that data in. They then calculate via methodology that they have what should the inflation number be. And then they present that to the public and to the central bank. Now when you look at how they collect the data, it is insane. So a couple of examples are they send physical people into physical stores with physical tablets and say, go find the Campbell soup with low sodium and no salt. And I always say that if we said to your audience, which are obviously very intelligent, good looking people, for all of them to go do that somebody will make a mistake. Because if I was told to go into the grocery store and find all these different products, right. My wife sends me to do that sometimes and I still make mistakes and I don't even have to find the exact perfect one. And then they got to manually input the price and they're doing this all across the country. So obviously there's some issues there. The second thing is they will call people on the phone and they'll say, hey Dave, you own your house. What do you think you could rent it for? Well, on Friday night when you're hanging out with your buddies, ask them what they think they could rent their house for. You'll hear some pretty wild numbers, right? And so people just, they don't have a clue, they just make it up. And so I think there's some issues there. Instead I look at metrics like the truflation measurement. Truflation is a real time alternative inflation metric that basically says, look, rather than do all this crazy stuff, why don't we just look at guaranteed verifiable data? So they take 14 million data inputs from 40 different independent data providers and they basically calculate what they think is inflation on a daily basis. Oh wow. And, and the reason why that's interesting is because the government's telling US inflation is 2.4% right now. Truflation is telling us it's half of that 1.2%. And so if you're the central bank, if you're looking at 2.4, you're saying, well that's above our 2% target. If you're on truflation and you're saying it's 1.2, well, now we're below the target, maybe we should be cutting rates. So I think that the data is always gonna be a big issue. Now if I was the Fed chairman, the first thing I would do is I would go in and I would cut rates immediately. And the reason I would do that is tell everyone, hey, we're serious. And the second thing is that people again in that direction of travel drastically underestimate the deflationary forces that are swallowing the US economy right now. And so I continue to say that tariffs are deflationary, deportations are deflationary, AI and robotics are deflationary. So you think of deportations is last year we had a negative 2 million net migration in the United States. If you take 2 million people out of the population, well guess what happens? There's less people competing for homes, there's less people competing for certain resources. And so those prices go down because the demand is not as high as it was before. If you look at things like AI and robotics, you see all of these little anecdotal examples, you know, lemonade, which is big in car insurance provider. They have come out now and said that if you are driving a Tesla and you have full self driving engaged, you will pay 50% less on your insurance policy. And the reason why is because the data shows that it is safer for full self driving to be driving versus the human. What's deflationary? If you drop car insurance by 50%, then that obviously is going to bring prices down. And so I just think that we continue to look at things like oil or short term movements and we ignore the fact that there's this like, you know, Elon Musk calls it a supersonic tsunami of deflation that's coming and I just think that that is a much, much bigger risk than, you know, short term inflation expectations or anything like that.
- [18:41]
Dave Rutherford
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- [20:04]
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- [23:28]
Dave Rutherford
that is the talk of the town, right is we've seen a lot of news stories relative to AI its infusion into geopolitics, our military industrial complex, right? Zero Hedge as I said just posted a, an article suggesting that we're almost out of rare earth minerals which we put into our missile systems are autonomous vehicle systems. Right. And that China controls the majority of that. The other reality is AI and the Super 7. Right. How long do those continue to kind of prop up that the S&P 500 in the markets right now? Because with the right around a 40% balance of, of of the overall markets. Is that sustainable and does AI continue to have a, a deflationary impact or does the, the tsunami as he said, had caused so much, so much disruption in high wage earning jobs, I. E. You know, White collar jobs. I heard you talk about this a little bit. Does that then. Right. Reduce high paying jobs which reduces. Right. Which increases the jobless numbers which then wants to drive those inflationary numbers higher. How would you, how do you look at AI as a disruptive impact on inflation as well as economy?
- [24:56]
Anthony Pompliano
Economy, yeah. You know what's really interesting is I can talk about maybe my personal experience running, running businesses. Right. So I think people hear artificial intelligence and they think that oh my God, everyone's going to lose their job. Well, what we actually find is twofold. One, we are actually not hiring net new roles. In certain cases we're still hiring in many roles, but in certain cases we are not hiring net new roles because those entry level type jobs can now be replaced by artificial intelligence. And so no one lost their job because of it.
- [25:25]
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- [25:25]
Anthony Pompliano
But you didn't gain a job in the economy because of this artificial intelligence. The second thing is my expectations for productivity for people in our companies has grown substantially. You know, if all of a sudden I give you superhuman intelligence, which means that now you are smarter than you were six months ago, shouldn't you be able to be more productive? Shouldn't you be able to create more things? Right. Shouldn't we drive more revenue or more profit in our businesses because now we have superhuman intelligence? And so I think that that's actually maybe one of the more interesting stories here is now, now if you look at big companies, a lot of them were bloated already. It's kind of the example of Elon going into Twitter and firing 80% of the staff and almost nobody noticed type thing. So some companies are already bloated. But what I do think is maybe more likely is if you look at something like Palantir, Palantir constantly keeps saying, hey, we are going to grow at the same rate or faster, but we're going to do it with 800 less employees. And so there they're basically saying that technology is going to have an impact on this stuff. Now what I find maybe in terms of the inflation conversation, is the reason why AI and robotics is so deflationary is because ultimately it drives down the cost of things. So a good example is if you look at, okay, I, if I, let's say humanoid robots become popular, right? I can go and I can hire 10 humans to do something, or I can hire three humanoid robots, which one you think is going to be cheaper? Well, in the very, very short term, the humanoid robots may be more expensive, but over time, technology will drive the cost down. And a great place where you can see this is like big screen TVs. I remember when I was like a teenager, a big screen TV was like a crazy luxury item, right? I mean, you know, 1200, $1500, you would like beg your dad, like, please, will you, you know, get this, we want to play video games or you know, whatever. And he's like, are you guys insane? It's you know, fifteen hundred dollars at Best Buy or whatever. Now you can go on Amazon and order a 65 inch screen TV for like 300 bucks, right? And by the way, the technology is better, the sound system is better, the imagery on the tv, all that's better, but it's cheaper. How did that happen? Well, it's because of the deflationary nature of technology. And so I think that is kind of what you're going to see show up. And the last thing I'll say here is I do think that technology in general shifts the way that we do things. And so if you think about, about, you know, self driving cars, maybe as a great example, it used to be that you needed a individual to go and drive their own car, but the wealthiest people in the country, they had a driver. Well, when they had a driver, guess what was really popular? Uber and Lyft came around. So what if we could give you a driver just for this one trip? And so they democratized access to having a driver. People loved it, right? Cause now maybe I don't need to own a car or I can go to a city and I don't need to drive myself around and do all these things.
- [28:20]
Bethenny Frankel
Things.
- [28:20]
Anthony Pompliano
Well, self driving cars is just democratizing it a step further and saying everyone's going to have their own driver all the time and it's going to be safer, better, whatever that is the trend of technology. And so that pushes prices down. And you can almost think of it as like, how much does it cost per mile to move a human well, we are already substantially lower than we were 10 years ago and I think that that's going to continue to fall. And so all of this is very, very deflationary for inflation over a medium to long term period.
- [28:49]
Dave Rutherford
All right, let's shift gears a little bit and let's talk about the private credit pullbacks that we're seeing right now. Over the last couple weeks we've seen Blackstone, blackrock and JP Morgan talk about not a canceling of access to, but certainly a reduction or restrictions on some of their funds. It seems like how does this affect an economy that might be moving into definitely a bear market in terms as well as a low growth period. And as with the AI disruption that you talk about. Right. There's going to be a considerable amount of need for an influx of finance to come in to adapt to the emerging technologies. Right. Initially an outflow of investment to integrate these types of technologies. Does private credit challenges, do they last a long time and how do you protect what's taking place now? Is this going to be long term or short term thing?
- [29:55]
Anthony Pompliano
Yeah. So to understand private credit, you have to understand maybe how private credit became so popular. Right. And if you go back pre the global financial crisis, basically most lending was done by businesses. If you were a small or medium sized business, you went to your local bank or national bank and said, hey, here's my business plan, maybe here's my P L, my balance sheet, this is what I need the money for. And somebody underwrote you and they gave you a loan. But during the global financial crisis there was some passage of legislation, specifically the Dodd Frank act, which really hampered the ability for banks to go and do this type of lending. And so if the banks are basically sidelined, well guess what, the businesses still need to borrow capital. And so what do they do? They go and they look for it somewhere else. And this gave rise to private credit and it basically allowed financial institutions, whether they're large or small, to show up and say, hey, you know, if you need a loan, well we got money and we'll lend it to you just like the bank used to. But we may be able to do it faster or cheaper or may expensive or have different terms to it or whatever, but we'll lend you the money. And so for the last, I don't know, 12 to 15 years, private credit's exploded. Today it's estimated to be somewhere between 3 to 4 trillion dollars in total size that is being lent out to these small medium sized businesses. Well, if you're lending money just like in the global financial crisis, and you lend it to bad companies, you don't get paid back. If you don't get paid back, then that causes problems, right? And so in the private credit world, I think the question right now is, is, you know, who were you lending the money to over the last, you know, couple of years, and how good are those businesses? And one of the things that I think is really unique about private credit is you don't have to mark to market every single day. You know, if you hold a public stock, if I hold Apple stock, well, if I ask you how many or how much is 10 shares of Apple worth? You just go look at the stock market and say, well, what's 10 times the share price? And that's how much it's worth in private credit. You kind of guesstimate, right? You say, hey, I gave you a loan. Maybe I lent you a million dollars. You've been paying me back. I think this is still worth a million dollars, or maybe I think it's worth 1.1 million. Well, if all of a sudden those businesses that I was lending the million dollars to are having trouble, their ability to pay me back may be withering away, and I may not know it yet, or maybe I do know it and I don't yet reflect it in the marks for that loan. And so now what we're starting to see is as some of these companies go under, and there are some very big examples, tricolor and some people in the automotive space space, that then pulls into question to the private credit guys, who are you lending the money to, and are you likely to get paid back or not? And so naturally, if you're an investor in a private credit fund, then you say, you know this private credit thing I'm reading about in the headlines, I see the oil thing going on. I want my money back. And so you go to the private credit manager and you say, you know, I want to redeem my capital. Give me my money back. Well, if too many people do that at the same time, then the private credit manager's got to ask themselves, while all the money has been lent out, what do I do? And so that's where you're hearing about these funds that are. Basically, some of them are selling off their loans and saying, hey, let me raise capital so I can pay back some of my investors. Some of them are doing something called gating. They're basically saying, hey, you can't get the money back right now. I'll give it back to you later. But that's where you're hearing these rumblings of private credit. Now, $3 trillion is a big number, but to give you a sense, it's only twice as big as the bitcoin market. Right? Right now. Right. So it's big. But the global equity market is, you know, hundreds of trillions of dollars. And so it's still relatively small compared to, you know, asset classes like that. But what ends up being really important is if all of a sudden there's these cracks in private credit and these people not only can't extend more loans, but they have to pull back their loans, you get a credit contraction. Well, the US Economy is built on credit expansion. More and more money getting lent out means we grow. So there's a credit contraction. That means that the businesses that were borrowing, the small and medium sized businesses, they come under pressure, they start to fire people, they start to have issues in their business. And that's where you can start to get some recessionary effects. It's not so much the private credit guys as much as the people that the private credit guys were giving money to. They come under the pressure and that's where it shows up in the U.S. economy. And so we're not there yet, but definitely, I think all eyes on private credit at the moment. Because if these issues are real and bigger than maybe we anticipate, then yeah, you're going to get some cracks throughout the system. And people just want to understand, you know, what is the contained area of this pressure and how pervasive is it compared to maybe what we previously thought.
- [34:24]
Dave Rutherford
There's, there's a, an idea out there. It's not an idea, it's a reality that over the next 10 years, you know, all the boomers are going to be starting to pass away. They're, they're gonna, they're the, they have more assets accumulated than any other generation in history and those assets will be transferring to, to their offspring or to whomever. And that some estimates are, you know, low, low like 35 trillion in assets people high end or 80, 85 trillion in assets are going to transfer into these, this new generation of, of young people. What are you, how do you think bitcoin's going to play a role in the future of that, that wealth transfer? Obviously I heard you talk a lot about the younger generations kind from that traditional 60, 40 portfolio. What are you suggesting with the people that are beginning to receive some of that transfer of wealth from their parents or their grandparents? How are you directing them towards bitcoin and why?
- [35:35]
Anthony Pompliano
Well, I think that bitcoin is an important part of a portfolio, but I don't believe that Bitcoin should be 100% of most people's portfolio. Right? And so I think that you've got to look at it in terms of, of if you take a more traditional portfolio and you put some allocation to Bitcoin in there, it usually is a diversifier. It allows you to really kind of smooth some volatility and it ends up being usually non correlated. It also tends to increase your Sharpe ratio and do certain things. But the real problem with the 6040 portfolio is basically that 40% of that portfolio is really, really under pressure right now in terms of bonds. So global equities. Most people, if you're their 60 in the United States are going to put 60% in American equities. And whether that is the S and P, the Nasdaq or maybe they think that the next Warren Buffett want to go pick individual stocks. They're going to go and they're going to put in equities. And as long as you're not insane and put 30, 40% of your portfolio in a single stock that maybe doesn't have a good chance of being durable. That 60% should go up into the right over a long period of time as the government debases the currency. Now the 40% though, I always say that bonds are the only thing guaranteed to lose value in your portfolio and people don't like to hear that. You know, whenever I hear that the financial advisor community is telling people, you know, cash is safe or bonds are safe, Treasuries are safe, I say look, yeah, sure, if you're thinking on a timeline of a couple days, weeks, months maybe, but over multiple years, you know, these assets lose enormous amount of value. And if you look at something like TLT, which is the iShares 20 Year Treasury Fund, it is down 36% over the last five years years. It's just holding Treasuries but it's losing value because the currency's being devalued so quickly. And so when you look at that, I do believe that that 6040 portfolio is something that worked for a long time and it became kind of the safe thing. Nobody gets fired for going to use IBM. Well, nobody gets fired for doing the 6040 portfolio as a financial advisor or as an investor. And so I think that really what you're starting to see is people question, well, what should I put in that 40 portfolio percent and I've got some friends who are 60% equities, 20% gold, 20% Bitcoin. I've got some friends that are 60, 20, 10, 10, where maybe it's 60% equities, 20% bonds and 10% gold, 10% Bitcoin. I have friends who they put real estate or whatever. And so it really comes down to what are you trying to accomplish? And I think that somebody who is 75 years old has very different goals and situation than somebody who's 25 years old.
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Anthony Pompliano
And if we know one thing, I think that the world has woken up to the fact that the K shaped economy is driven by the people who hold assets and the people who don't. And so it's less about, you know, tax rates and all this other stuff. And it's just like, hey, did you learn at some point, did somebody tell you buy assets don't hold cash? And what I find very fascinating about that is the US Government is now stepping in and saying, hey, let's help people here. And you know, I'm generally pretty skeptical, skeptical when the government says that they're going to help with something. I tend to think that they are value destructive. You know, they're very good at spending money and doing it in insane, you know, ways that don't create value. But this idea of these Invest America accounts, or people call them Trump accounts, where, you know, we're going to give newborn babies a thousand dollars and then people in that baby's life can go and contribute more money and it's going to compound over time. It's pretty interesting, right? If you give people a stake in the capitalist system, then one they're likely to end up with, right, you know, over 18 or 25 years. But two is they're probably going to like capitalism. They're not going to be, you know, running around telling everyone how socialism is amazing and we should take all the money from, you know, people and redistribute it. Because I think that, you know, two things about the, the socialism conversation that always cracks me up is there's a famous saying, you know, the problem with socialism is you eventually run out of everyone else's money. And, and then the second one is Javier Milei down in Argentina recently gave a speech and when he gave the speech speech, the Socialist party refused to clap for him. And he looked at them and he said socialists can't clap because they got their hands in everyone else's pockets. Right now I think that capitalism's a pretty good system. And when you think about portfolios, stocks obviously will still continue to do well as productive assets. But people are really questioning what's going to go in that 40%. And I think young people are less likely to hold Treasuries and other types of fixed income compared to maybe their parents or grandparents.
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Dave Rutherford
I you know it's always interesting. I you know, you're trying to get a an idea because Gen Z is going to be one of the most significant generations in history, right? They're the ones that are going to go through this massive shift in the geopolitical hierarchies, right? There's a monster shift of power going right now. The the old order of things is is pretty much in in massive question. You know, I see polling for Rubio peaking and going past Vance just yesterday for the first time in terms of the future. And I think you know, the old guard is pushing that because they they want to try and get back to that. The, the stability of that what we'll call it the, the old school monetary policy, geopolitical policy. And and that's what's taking place as as we kind of move into the the. The it seems to be that uncertainty and and kinetic actions overseas and and and volatility within the markets is the new norm. Why do you is are you talked about correlation? And I know a lot of people are constantly trying to correlate Bitcoin to gold or correlate Bitcoin to the S and P or correlate it to whatever. But we continue to see that that's not exactly the case. What is Bitcoin correlated to? And how can people regain after what took place a couple weeks ago and going back down to the bottom of 63, three, how can you. What, what do you have to say to people about what Bitcoin is correlated to and why it's a great long term asset?
- [45:39]
Anthony Pompliano
Yeah, well, I think there's a couple of things here. So Bitcoin historically has been non correlated. So you know, people, when they see a core high correlation, they get nervous and when they see a negative correlation, they think that could be, you know, nerve wracking at times as well. The reason that non correlation is really fascinating and advantageous is because if you put a bunch of non correlated assets in a portfolio, then you have the ability to be resilient. Right? And Bitco I think has always been thought of this like resilient asset. Yes, it's volatile, but there's a deep seated confidence that over a long period of time it, it is very resilient. Now that has changed in the last, you know, I don't know, 18 months or so. Bitcoin right now is very correlated to software stocks in particular. It's kind of been a risk on, you know, high beta trade to software. And the reason why I think that that is occurring is we've basically had a transfer of Bitcoin ownership from the individuals who didn't care about macro environment or interest rates or, or what's going on in the stock market to now. You, these institutions that are holding Bitcoin, some of it's through the etf, some of it's directly. And they're saying, well, when I want to go risk on, I want to be in Nvidia and I want to be in Amazon and Palantir and Bitcoin and Tesla and these all things kind of get lumped together, right? And so when they go risk off, they sell all that stuff and that's where you get the correlations. Now what I do find interesting is Bitcoin and gold, they used to be very correlated. They are not so correlated right now. You know, the, the numbers are moving on a daily basis, but bitcoin is down about 20% to start the year and gold is up about 20% to start. So it's been kind of an alligator jaw, completely different directions here. And so the question is, do those things ever converge? Do they ever close? I think that they will. The question really is just when does that happen and does that mean that gold goes down and meets bitcoin or does that mean bitcoin goes up and meets gold? I don't know the answer to that, but I think that that's probably one of the big things right now is if bitcoin can break the correlation to software stocks and return back to having a correlation with gold, then I think that that'll end up being very good for the bitcoin holder holders.
- [47:36]
Dave Rutherford
Awesome. Yeah, I, I, I, I, I would love to see its independence continue. I, I, I love that it's an asset that really is a, has a mind of its own, so to speak. I think that's where the, the real long term value is in it. So. All right, last question. What are you paying attention to right now? What are you telling your listeners to focus on on? And do you have any short term outlooks that people can pay attention to you that some consistent, some of the underlying consistencies in, in, in the volatility that can clear away the noise for people?
- [48:20]
Anthony Pompliano
My number one message to people right now is artificial intelligence is very real and there is a jump ball situation that they should take seriously. So if we go back, you know, my experience with bitcoin, I heard about it in 2012, I literally have a DM with an individual and I'm basically like, you know, you sound insane. Essentially in, in 2014, I was working at Facebook. We hired David Marcus, the president of PayPal came over and he kept talking about bitcoin sat maybe 100ft from me and I asked an engineer, I said, what's he talking about? And the guy said, you know, it's stupid, didn't do anything. And it was only in 2016 did I say, hey, maybe I should, you know, take some time to look at this. And my wife always tells a story of she came home one day and I was sitting there and I literally had books and papers and you know, basically looked like a, a math nerd who was like, you know, cramming for a test. And she said, look, if there's one thing I know about you, you did not do any of that in school, so what are you doing? And, and I said to her, I said, you know, I'm trying to learn about this thing. It seems like this is going to be important. And so I went and I did the work for it and I wish I'd done it earlier but, but eventually I did do it. AI to me feels like that's the moment right now, right, is go and learn how to do this. Understand how do the LLMs work, understand all these product release out, understand what people are doing with this stuff. Because if you are a young person, there are two things you can do with AI. You can go and you can create product services and companies, meaning that you can kind of be on your own. You can serve people, solve problems and use AI to do it. But also if you have a job, the single most coveted spot over the next five years inside big corporations is going to be the young person that is deemed to be the AI expert.
- [50:02]
Dave Rutherford
That's right.
- [50:03]
Anthony Pompliano
If you're the person who understands how this technology works and you work in a big bloated bureaucratic organization, they are going to love you. You are going to get way credit than you deserve for even understanding how to spell AI, let alone how to use it. And so I think that that's probably one big aspect. Now the second thing is that people should be using this in their day to day life. And so as I went down this rabbit hole and really started to get better at it and understand it better, one of the things I wanted to do is I wanted to be able to use AI for my investing portfolio. And so I went to ChatGPT and you know, Gemini and Grok, all these things. And one of the problems that I found was I was using, you know, the superhuman intelligence through the LLMs. But every time I'd ask it a question, I'd get generic intelligence advice back. And the advice was essentially just didn't have my context. And so we actually built a product called CFO Sylvia that you come in and you attach all your accounts and you know, provide all this context around what are the assets you own. And then when you talk to Sylvia, you're talking to a, a model, but what that model is doing is it's essentially allowing us to feed the context of your portfolio with every query. So if you ask something, for example, you know what is going to be the impact on the market in my portfolio if oil prices are higher for a longer period of time, time, Sylvia will come back and explain to you what's likely to happen in the market. But then go asset by asset in your portfolio and explain exactly what is likely to happen.
- [51:20]
Dave Rutherford
Wow. Wow.
- [51:21]
Anthony Pompliano
And so that's where I think AI becomes really interesting is you start to use the superhuman intelligence plus the context of your personal life. And yes, you know, we, we've seen people do some pretty crazy thing. We saw one guy who, who told us he wanted to do something. We ended up actually turning this into a feature. But he was uploading his tax reference return and asking Sylvia to tell him how to get his tax rate down. Right. And so, you know, going and understanding everything about his life and how his income worked etc, and then going and, and explaining that. And so I just think like, that's the area where AI to me is really going to be valuable is, you know, the context of your fitness or your health records and stuff like how, how do I get healthier? You know, what food am I eating? What does my portfolio look like, what is my day to day, what's my email? You know, how do you apply AI to these different areas? And so, you know, we're pretty focused because of my interest in investing on, on CFO Sylvia and applying it there. But I think this is going to become pervasive across the economy and I think that people who can go and learn these skills, learn this technology, they're going to end up at a much better place than maybe the people who otherwise are going to kind of sit back and say, you know, I don't know if that thing is real or not.
- [52:26]
Dave Rutherford
Yeah, I. One of the most prominent questions I ask and you know, in my speaking, I generally am speaking to financial advisors on a regular basis. I was just in front of a $50 billion the center part of the country last week and I asked the question, how many people have invested at least 20 hours in legitimate elite level AI training to incorporate in your business? And it wasn't just, you know, portfolio evaluations or anything, it was marketing, it was, you know, customer contact, whether, you know, it was across the board. And at this company, which had a lot of young people, which was cool school, you know, I got probably six hands that went up that were really, really dedicated. But like, I've been in front of other, you know, of the wirehouses out there and like, these are the biggest producers in their city, in their, you know, in, in, in these firms. And I'd get, you know, 50 people in a room. I get one person that raised their hand and then I pinned down on them. All right, what's your training? They're like, oh, I've watched a few YouTube videos. And so it's like they, there, there is a division, right, based on demographics, who are more in line with like, oh, I'm past it, I'm not going to worry, I'm going to transition. That's why, you see, I think you've seen a lot of people try and dump their books on younger or, or, you know, other firms, independents that are consolidating Right now, you know, but I, I agree. I really believe the younger generation that is in incorporating this system, these systems into how they assist their clients. Right. And it's not the, they're not, and those people are not deathly afraid of it overwhelming and taking over their business. They're like, no, this is going to make me Superman in my business. And I think that's a really positive, positive attribute to, to what's going on. All right, you know, last question, I promise. What would you like to see come out of the, the, the Trump administration in the next 30 days that could help potentially stabilize some of the, the market worries or some of the volatility? What would you like Trump to either say or what would you like them to do? We did see the treasury bought back. What, what was it? I think it was $16 billion in debt or, or I forget what the number was. But you, you there there, there. They've always been hyper concerned, concerned on, on promoting the, the strong markets that, hey, listen, the tariffs, we're doing all that. But he's taken a series of pretty significant economic hits as a result of the Supreme Court pushing back on that. The oil prices going high, potentially our, our military industrial complex not being up to speed to maintain this long term. What would you like to hear the Trump administration say? Say that can be a positive aspect of, of what we're going to see in the next three to six months financially?
- [55:31]
Anthony Pompliano
Well, it's not during the Trump administration, but maybe Dave Rutherford becoming president one day would be, would be a good one. But for, for, for this administration, the single most important thing that they could do is win in Iran and do it quickly. If they do that, then investors get clarity, they get certainty, they get, you know, a lack of kind of conflict. Then I think markets will, you know, r. Everyone will, will have amnesia. You know, I always joke that it, it's been, I don't know, eight weeks since we went and grabbed Maduro down in Venezuela and people like already forgot, right? It's just, you know, like what, what. And so I think that, that that's probably the single most important thing is winning and doing it quickly. The second thing is I think that they've got to continue to reiterate their commitment to one, you know, making sure that oil prices do not spike significantly higher. Uh, two is, I think that the affordability agenda domestically is very important and I think that we've got to be careful that we don't chase doing, you know, government intervention that is short term good, but long term destructive. And so how do you go and say to yourself, okay, let's take housing affordability? Well, like the number one thing we can do in housing affordability is build more homes, but you can't snap your fingers and build them. And so you've got to have a long term plan, but you got to have short term action. And I think that they've started down that path, but continue to do that's important. And then last but not least is this is a little bit of a weird way to view this, but I do think it's really important is one of the things that I believe the government is most important for doing is stoking patriotism in the country. And the reason why I think that that is so important is because ultimately America's power has really been in its collective belief in a bright future and in the power and innovation of America. If you go and you look over the people have always believed like America will figure it out. America has, you know, got the, the people, the talent, the capital, et cetera, to be able to do this. And I think that, you know, I'm very fond of, of the saying of, you know, kind of assimilation in America where you can go to Italy, but you can't become Italian, you can go to Spain, you can't become Spanish, you can come to America and become American.
- [57:44]
Dave Rutherford
That's right.
- [57:44]
Anthony Pompliano
Right. And so the ability to do that, I think is really important. But driving this belief that, hey, we are all more similar than we are different is important. As long as people are willing to assimilate into the American life and the values and, and kind of what we're trying to accomplish. And so I do think that the government has a unique position to be able to do that. And so if they're able to kind of three pronged approach, you know, win and do it quickly in Iran, have the domestic affordability agenda, and then also continue to stoke this feeling of patriotism, especially in young people, then I think that we'll be in good shape.
- [58:18]
Dave Rutherford
Outstanding, Sir. All right, Mr. Pompliano, where can people sign up for the newsletter, follow you and watch your daily Daily show.
- [58:25]
Anthony Pompliano
Yeah, I appreciate it. If you want to listen to or, or read the newsletter, just go to a Pompletter.com and then if you want to sign up for, for Sylvia, you can just go to CFO Sylvia S I L-V-I-A.com and you can get set up there for, for free.
- [58:42]
Dave Rutherford
Awesome. Thank you so much, sir. God bless you and what you're doing.
- [58:45]
Anthony Pompliano
Thank you guys. For having me.
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