The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

David Rutherford Show: Venezuela, EU War Prep, AI Bubble & 2026 Recession Risk
Air Date: December 29, 2025
Guests: David Rutherford (host), Bryce Gill (guest)

Episode Overview

In this episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show (David Rutherford guest hosting), host David Rutherford is joined by economic analyst Bryce Gill for a wide-ranging, in-depth discussion about global flashpoints and economic turbulence heading into 2026. The episode covers the current Venezuela-US standoff, the shift in EU and NATO military posture, foreign investment in the US economy, the implications of an AI-driven asset bubble, and the underlying reasons for economic unease among younger Americans. Together, David and Bryce deliver nuanced, often contrarian takes on globalization, US policy, and how political-economic forces abroad and at home are converging.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Venezuela: US Pressure, Nationalism, and the Monroe Doctrine Redux

[03:34 – 09:42]

• Historical Context: Bryce Gill lays out how Venezuela moved from prosperity to pariah status after Hugo Chavez’s election and oil industry nationalization, leading to heavy US sanctions and decades-long animosity.
  • “Venezuela used to be one of the richest countries in the world… and Hugo Chavez nationalized their oil industry. That’s what really upset powerful American organizations.” (Bryce Gill, 03:55)
• Nationalism vs. Socialism: Both agree US-Venezuela tensions are less about ideology (socialism vs. capitalism) and more about resource nationalism and Western corporate interests.
  • “It’s not really about socialism as much as it is about nationalism for the Venezuelan people. And for the US, it’s about wealthy, powerful corporations upset about their assets.” (Bryce Gill, 06:49)
• Geopolitical Motives: Increased attention from China and Russia in Venezuela is viewed as the US seeking to reassert its Monroe Doctrine-era dominance.
  • “What's really going on here… is like Monroe Doctrine 2.0. Monroe Doctrine is about the US controlling its own hemisphere and keeping other world powers out.” (Bryce Gill, 08:30)
• Drug Boats as Pretext: The recent US strikes on ‘drug boats’ are seen as symbolic—meant to pressure the Maduro regime and send a warning to rivals, not just anti-narcotics.
  • “I think the whole drug sort of angle is just an excuse to do what we wanted anyway, which is put pressure on them and get Maduro to step down.” (Bryce Gill, 05:12)

Notable Quote:
“We want to get rid of this government… but you have Donald Trump who’s a media branding guy. These drug strikes are about sending a message to the rest of South America.”
— Bryce Gill (08:43)

2. Election Interference, Oil Interests, and Geopolitical Scandals

[09:42 – 16:42]

• Claims on Voting Machines: David recounts theories linking Smartmatic/Dominion software origins to Chavez and claims of mass electoral manipulation globally and in the US.
  • “They believe… all Dominion and Smartmatic voting machines… are controlled by source code that originated with Chavez's guys… over 72 countries flipped.” (David Rutherford, 11:12)
• Oil & Cartel Nexus: Both emphasize that US-Venezuela conflict is tangled with international oil companies and cartel activity, not simply ideological divides.
  • “It was all these big consortia, international oil organizations that were kicked out and lost access to that.” (David Rutherford, 13:15)
• Venezuela-Iran Parallel: Bryce draws direct comparisons between Venezuela today and Iran in the 1950s—a populist, nationalist leader expropriating Western assets and facing US-led regime change.
  • “I almost look at Venezuela as the Western Hemisphere’s version of Iran… The exact same thing happened in Iran.” (Bryce Gill, 15:04)

3. US vs. China Influence in Latin America, and the New Resource Race

[17:26 – 22:27]

• South America’s Economic Role: Despite dominance in some commodities, South America makes up only a modest share of US total imports (<15%).
  • “In dollar terms, like percentage of imports, pretty small… but they do have a big share of agricultural produce.” (Bryce Gill, 18:12)
• Resurgence of US Economic Diplomacy: The US’ economic moves in Argentina and beyond are about boxing out Chinese influence and maintaining regional hegemony.
  • “It’s about getting as many governments on our side versus China as possible.” (Bryce Gill, 20:00)
• China Mirrors US Historical Methods: Bryce lauds China’s adoption of classic American ‘debt diplomacy’ and mercantilist policy, stating, “China has taken everything we did to grow into a world superpower, and they’ve just copied us.” (21:40)

4. EU, NATO, and Escalation of War Posture

[27:41 – 37:00]

• War Talk in the EU: The EU is increasing military budgets and seizing Russian assets to support Ukraine, driven (Bryce argues) by bureaucratic elites in Brussels “completely disconnected from what the people on the ground think.” (30:13)
• Democracy Deficit in the EU: Democracy is described as hollowed out in Brussels; sovereignty lost to “layers of bureaucracy.”
  • “You voting in Germany or Portugal or whatever, it doesn't matter. Unfortunately, it matters very little.” (Bryce Gill, 31:06)
• Military Weakness: Europe’s militaries are “unfortunately a joke,” due in part to NATO’s function as a US tool to keep EU states dependent.
• Has the EU Strengthened Europe? Gill and Rutherford debate whether the EU has benefited Europe as a whole, with Bryce arguing it gave Germany a big win but left southern states weaker and fueled strife.

Notable Quote:
“The EU has been a big win for Germany, maybe even for France. For the rest of the countries, probably not so much… And that’s why you’ve seen so much strife over the loss of sovereignty to Brussels.”
— Bryce Gill (35:21)

5. Middle Eastern Investments and the Logic of Trade Deficits

[41:10 – 44:56]

• Oil States Diversifying: Massive Middle East investment into the US reflects a need to diversify away from oil dependency after the US fracking revolution.
  • “They're trying to diversify into entertainment, into technology, into AI, and all kinds of defense.” (Bryce Gill, 41:26)
• Foreign Asset Ownership Explained: Trade deficits mean the US exports not “dollars,” but actual ownership of American businesses, farmland, real estate, etc.
  • “We don’t give them dollars, we give them ownership of national assets. That’s what a trade deficit is.” (Bryce Gill, 42:07)
• Is FDI Good or Bad? When foreign investment creates domestic production capacity (e.g., building US factories), it’s positive; if it's just ownership/price inflation, it’s less so.

6. The US Economy: Trump, Tariffs, and the Asset Owner Society

[48:08 – 64:10]

• Trump’s Legacy on Trade: Trump shifted the “Overton window” on globalization and forced both parties to accept a more protectionist, reindustrialization agenda.
  • “What’s really Trump’s biggest legacy to me is that he’s completely shifted the Overton window around globalization… The Democrats basically agree with him.” (Bryce Gill, 50:11)
• Tariffs as Industrial Policy: Gill supports tariffs but argues implementation has been chaotic and untethered from any long-term vision or targeted reinvestment.
  • “They should earmark every single dollar that comes into the treasury from tariffs for infrastructure modernization and other types of industrial policy.” (Bryce Gill, 51:36)
• Asset Inequality: The economy is now powered primarily by retirees (65+) and top-10% earners—the rise of the “asset owner” class.
  • “The biggest consumer demographic in the United States is people 65 years or older… the baby boomers have massively benefited from the asset boom.” (Bryce Gill, 57:56)
• Younger Generations Squeezed: Millennials and Gen Z, facing high house prices and asset inflation, increasingly turn to populism and even socialism.
  • “People that did everything right… can't afford a house, can't afford to get married, can't afford to have kids.” (Bryce Gill, 61:17)
• Globalization Paradox: International economic freedom (i.e., low barriers) has actually reduced domestic freedom for most Americans, eroding the middle class and increasing “supra-national” elites.
  • “There’s a paradox: international economic freedom leads to less domestic economic freedom and vice versa.” (Bryce Gill, 53:45)

Memorable Exchange:
“The top 10% are 55% of consumer spending, top 10% of income earners… Retired people are 25%. If you’re a normal person, a working person, you’re getting a much smaller piece of the pie.”
— Bryce Gill (60:10)

7. 2026 Economic Outlook, AI Bubble, and Advice for the Next Generation

[63:21 – 69:11]

• 2026 Outlook: Barring a collapse in the AI stock bubble, consumer spending and foreign investment will likely keep the US economy growing in the short-term.
  • “The economy probably grows next year. What could change that is if the AI bubble pops… That’s by far the biggest risk.” (Bryce Gill, 64:07)
• On AI Productivity: Bryce is skeptical about the real-world economic benefits of AI so far, dismissing it as mostly working for software development, with little effect elsewhere.
  • “Most of it is like—it’s kind of a parlor trick. MIT did a study: 95% of businesses that buy AI tools see no return on investment.” (Bryce Gill, 64:49)
• Advice for Young People:
  • Spend less time online, focus on real-world skills, form genuine relationships, and read more books.
    • “Spend as little time in the digital world as possible… Read more books, go outside, have hobbies, interact with real people.” (Bryce Gill, 67:00)
    • “Instagram is a giant commercial… this stuff doesn’t seem like it matters but the older I get the more I realize I was so lucky to be raised in the 90s when the Internet didn't exist.” (Bryce Gill, 67:37)

8. Firearms Culture and Retro Trends

[69:11 – 70:28]

• Retro Firearms Comeback: The show closes with discussion of Gen Z’s fascination with lever-action rifles and revolvers—a “return to tradition” trend in American gun culture.

  • “You're seeing revolvers make a huge comeback… Gen Z, it’s like the return to tradition thing.” (Bryce Gill, 69:55)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “It’s not really about socialism as much as it is about nationalism for the Venezuelan people.” (Bryce Gill, 06:49)
• “What's really going on here… is like Monroe Doctrine 2.0.” (Bryce Gill, 08:30)
• “The EU has been a big win for Germany, maybe even for France. For the rest of the countries, probably not so much.” (Bryce Gill, 35:21)
• “They should earmark every single dollar that comes into the treasury from tariffs for infrastructure modernization and other types of industrial policy investments.” (Bryce Gill, 51:36)
• “The biggest consumer demographic in the United States is people 65 years or older… and that's never happened before.” (Bryce Gill, 57:56)
• “Most of what foreign direct investment… is just: I take my dollars and buy an asset from you. All that happens is paper changes hands and the asset goes up in value.” (Bryce Gill, 43:51)
• “Spend as little time in the digital world as possible… The less time you can spend in digital spaces, the better.” (Bryce Gill, 67:00)

Key Timestamps

• Venezuela Nationalism & Oil: 03:34 – 09:42
• Election Software Theories & Geopolitics: 09:42 – 16:42
• Latin America: Economics & Influence: 17:26 – 22:27
• EU, NATO and War Posture: 27:41 – 37:00
• Middle East Investment, Trade Deficits: 41:10 – 44:56
• US Economy: Trump, Tariffs, Asset Owners: 48:08 – 64:10
• Economic Outlook, AI Bubble, Life Advice: 63:21 – 69:11
• Firearms Culture Retro Trends: 69:11 – 70:28

Tone:
Conversational, often skeptical or contrarian, with an emphasis on historical parallels, realpolitik, and practical economic advice. Both host and guest blend humor, pop culture references, and data-driven analysis.

For listeners who missed this episode:
This show is a sweeping overview of geopolitical risks, US policy successes and failures, and the subtle connections between trade, nationalism, and personal prosperity. The insights on the rise of the asset owner class, parallels between US foreign policy eras, and the real-world limitations of technological hype provide valuable perspective for anyone concerned about where the world—and their own financial future—is headed.