Episode Summary: Ep. 2 - The Tariff Conversation No One Is Having feat. Bryce Gill

Podcast: The David Rutherford Show
Guest: Bryce Gill, Economist at First Trust Portfolios
Release Date: April 9, 2025
Duration: Approximately 52 minutes

1. Introduction to Tariffs and American Industrialization (00:00 - 09:13)

The episode opens with David Rutherford expressing his frustration with the decline of American industrialization and the erosion of middle-class jobs. He introduces the topic of tariffs as a potential solution to revive domestic industries and bring back manufacturing jobs. Rutherford emphasizes the importance of rebuilding America's industrial base to restore economic prosperity for the average American.

Notable Quote:
David Rutherford (00:24):

"I want a tariff war. That's right. You heard me right. You know why I want a tariff? Because I'm sick and tired of industrialization being overseas and our middle class and our young people not being able to afford a damn house, build cars, have steel plants."

2. Decline of Middle-Class Jobs and Globalization (09:39 - 15:10)

Rutherford delves into the historical context, tracing the decline of American manufacturing from the post-World War II era to the present. He laments the offshoring of factories and the resultant loss of well-paying jobs for the middle class. Rutherford criticizes past administrations for facilitating this decline through policies that favored globalization and outsourcing.

Notable Quote:
David Rutherford (09:39):

"It's time we re-employ the next generation. The greatest generation is, is pretty much passing away and their children... it's driving me absolutely nuts to think about grandma and grandpa having to be Walmart greeters because their pension funds aren't paying them enough."

3. The Role of Tariffs in Economic Policy (15:10 - 23:06)

Introducing his guest, Bryce Gill, Rutherford discusses the concept of tariffs and their intended purpose—to protect domestic industries by making imported goods more expensive. Gill elaborates on how tariffs can incentivize companies to reshore manufacturing back to the United States, thereby creating jobs and strengthening the economy.

Notable Quote:
Bryce Gill (23:06):

"Reshoring to the United States, I think, is happening regardless of if we have tariffs or not. Tariffs obviously incentivize it to happen faster."

4. Impact of COVID-19 on Supply Chains and Inflation (17:05 - 26:36)

The conversation shifts to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on global supply chains and inflation. Gill explains how the pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in the supply chain, leading to significant inflation due to excessive money supply ("too much money chasing too few goods"). He asserts that stopping the printing of money and reopening the economy have begun to alleviate inflationary pressures.

Notable Quote:
Bryce Gill (17:05):

"Inflation's really pretty simple. At the end of the day, it's just too much money chasing too few goods. During COVID we printed $5 trillion, and then we shut down the global production system."

5. Market Correction and Economic Outlook (26:36 - 35:13)

Bryce Gill discusses the ongoing market correction, attributing it to rising interest rates and overvaluation in the stock market. He challenges the notion that tariffs are leading the economy toward a recession, highlighting that the negative impact of tariffs on GDP is minimal compared to past economic downturns like COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crisis.

Notable Quote:
Bryce Gill (30:54):

"The tariffs that have been instituted will have a negative 0.8% impact on GDP. Not even a 1% decline."

6. Comparison of U.S. Economy with Global Economies (35:13 - 37:01)

Gill contrasts the U.S. economy with those of China and other export-dependent nations. He points out that the U.S. is shifting from an export-driven economy to one focused more on services and domestic consumption. This shift, combined with demographic declines in countries like China, positions the U.S. to regain economic dominance.

Notable Quote:
Bryce Gill (35:13):

"China's in huge trouble. They've got a lot of problems... their demographics are peaking and starting to decline because of the one-child policy and a bunch of other stuff."

7. Recommendations for Policy and Future Actions (37:01 - 38:24)

Addressing global implications, Gill advises European Union leaders and BRICS nations to align more closely with the United States rather than China. He suggests that tariffs and economic policies should encourage these nations to prioritize domestic production over reliance on Chinese manufacturing.

Notable Quote:
Bryce Gill (36:21):

"I would advise Europe to probably make a deal with the United States. I think the United States has a lot of natural advantages... Hey, it's like America's telling you to choose. It's either you choose China or you choose the West."

8. Strength of U.S. Stock Markets Amidst Corrections (38:24 - 43:23)

Gill reassures listeners about the resilience of the U.S. stock markets, explaining that corrections are a normal part of market cycles. He emphasizes that despite the current dip, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong, and major companies are not significantly impacted by tariffs.

Notable Quote:
Bryce Gill (26:36):

"If you just look at the last hundred years of the stock market, right. So I don't look at what's happening right now as really anything outside the ordinary."

9. Final Motivational Segment: Rebuilding American Industry (43:23 - 52:46)

In the closing segment, Rutherford and his co-host Jordy reflect on the legacy of American industrial workers. They emphasize the importance of inspiring the younger generation to engage in manufacturing and construction to rebuild America's industrial might. The discussion encourages listeners to embrace hard work and consider careers that contribute directly to strengthening the nation's infrastructure.

Notable Quote:
David Rutherford (47:16):

"Those men woke up. It didn't bitch. They didn't complain. They weren't angry because they were making a good living. They were able to support their families."

Key Takeaways

• Tariffs as a Tool for Economic Revitalization: Tariffs are proposed as a means to protect and revive domestic industries, creating jobs and reducing dependency on foreign manufacturing.

• Historical Context of Industrial Decline: The decline of American manufacturing since the late 20th century is linked to globalization and policy decisions that favored outsourcing.

• Impact of COVID-19: The pandemic highlighted vulnerabilities in global supply chains, contributing to inflation and prompting a reevaluation of reliance on foreign production.

• Market Resilience: Despite current market corrections, the U.S. economy remains robust, with minimal negative impact from tariffs compared to past economic downturns.

• Global Economic Shifts: The U.S. is positioned to regain economic dominance as other nations face demographic challenges and reduced export markets.

• Call to Action: Encouraging the younger generation to engage in manufacturing and construction to sustain and grow America's industrial base.

Conclusion

Episode 2 of The David Rutherford Show, featuring economist Bryce Gill, provides an in-depth analysis of tariffs and their role in revitalizing American industry. The discussion spans historical economic policies, the impact of globalization, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the resilience of the U.S. stock market. The episode concludes with a motivational call to rebuild the nation's industrial strength by empowering the next generation to take on manufacturing roles. Listeners gain a comprehensive understanding of how tariffs can serve as a strategic tool for economic rejuvenation and the broader implications for both the U.S. and global economies.