Hour 1 - $15 Billion a Day

Summary

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: Hour 1 - $15 Billion a Day

Date: October 15, 2025
Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
Host: iHeartPodcasts

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Overview: Main Theme and Purpose

In this episode, Clay Travis and Buck Sexton focus on the ongoing federal government shutdown—dubbed the “Schumer Shutdown”—now in its 15th day, and its multifaceted impacts on politics, the economy, and American life. The hosts analyze Democratic and Republican strategies, media narratives about the shutdown, and delve into the broader political environment, including topics like Supreme Court cases, House re-districting, census changes, and the shifting landscape around gender identity among teenagers. The episode is energetic and opinionated, blending political insight with the show’s signature humor and lively banter.

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Key Discussion Points & Segments

1. The Government Shutdown: Who's to Blame and What’s at Stake?

• [03:39] Buck sets the stage: Day 15 of the government shutdown, with Speaker Johnson’s press conference and rising tensions on Capitol Hill.
• Buck: “The Schumer Shutdown, Democrats trying to play a bit of hardball... Speaker Johnson holding a press conference... things are heating up.”
• Clay: “I’m glad that you're watching these press conferences so others do not have to... that sounds miserable.”

Impact on Government Workers and the Military

• [08:18] Buck details the real-world consequences for government workers, many missing paychecks: “Now if you are paycheck to paycheck, there’s no money. So now you're running up credit card bills. Now the family stress is increasing.”

Republican vs. Democrat Narratives

• [09:13] Buck asserts Republicans were ready to fund the government, but Democrats are playing political games.
• Scott Bezant, Treasury Secretary, Soundbite: “We believe that the shutdown may start costing the US economy up to $15 billion a day. And this is a decision the Democrats are making...” (09:13)

Media Coverage and Perception

• [09:49] Buck: “If this was a different circumstance, the Democrats would be pounding the damage of the shutdown all day... But it’s on the Democrats.”

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2. Supreme Court Case: Racial Gerrymandering

• [05:40] Clay provides a legal deep dive on a potentially transformative Supreme Court case about majority Black districts, equal protection, and racial gerrymandering.
  • Possible outcome: “We could see all racial gerrymandering declared unconstitutional... and that could be profoundly transformative.” (06:27)
  • Discussion on precedent: Clay attributes a key line to John Roberts: “The best way to stop discriminating by race is to stop discriminating by race.” (07:50)

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3. Political Leadership and Party Dynamics

• [14:06] Clay critiques Democratic leadership, especially Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, painting them as vulnerable. He stresses the influence of the far-left, especially with politicians like AOC possibly challenging for more power.

  • Notable quote: “Chuck Schumer lives in eternal fear of AOC deciding she wants to be a senator and wiping him out.” (15:25)

• AOC as Notable Future Figure: Both hosts discuss the possibility of AOC as a future VP pick or even Democratic presidential candidate.

  • Buck: “Is AOC a more dynamic personality and online avatar by leaps and bounds than Kamala...? Not even a question.” (16:35)

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4. Economic Outlook Amidst Political Turmoil

• [27:00] Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s assessment: Despite the shutdown, economic activity remains on solid ground, which undercuts Democratic attempts to use the shutdown politically.

  • Powell: “Based on the data we do have, the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much... growth in economic activity may be... on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected.” (27:00)

• Prediction Markets and Upcoming Elections:

  • [27:58] Ryan Gardusky (guest): “What looked like a pretty clear Democrat [win] in the House come next year has become much closer to a toss up at this point, although still slightly leaning Democratic.”
  • Clay: “The prediction markets got it almost 100% right on 2024 with Trump, and they are trending in a very positive direction right now for Republicans.” (29:27)

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5. Shifting Trends in Gender Identity Among Teens

• [04:28] Buck highlights the sharp decline in students identifying as non-binary or trans.

  • Buck: “Percentage of students identifying as non-binary or trans has suddenly fallen off a cliff. Isn’t that so interesting?”

• [37:31] Clay calls out medical professionals for supporting surgeries on gender nonconforming teens: “Some of these doctors, I think, should be bankrupted and frankly charged with crimes.”

• The hosts agree that post-shutdown, many kids are rejecting what they call the “absurdity of the trans world.”

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6. Census, Redistricting, and Long-Term Political Implications

• [29:20–33:12] Clay thoroughly breaks down how illegal immigrant population counts and mistakes in the last census have shifted House seats in favor of Democrats. He predicts:

  • Red states will gain electoral votes post-2030 census.

  • The path to a Democratic victory like Kamala’s near-win in 2024 will soon vanish due to these structural changes.

  • Clay: “The 2030 census is going to be a earthquake politically in terms of the shift of power coming to red states.” (29:20)

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7. Media, Messaging, and “Woke” Culture

• Kamala Harris as a Candidate

  • [22:05] The hosts mock Kamala’s recent interview about her “qualifications.”
    • Kamala (recorded): “Some people have actually said I was the most qualified candidate ever to run for President.” (22:05)
    • Buck: “If you have to tell people how qualified you are for anything, you’re probably not that qualified.” (22:31)
    • Clay: “Kamala is the ultimate DEI candidate...the leader of the WOKE movement and the broken brain universe is actually liberal white women.” (23:01)

• Transgender Sports and Political Evasion

  • [35:24] The hosts deride Democratic politicians’ evasiveness on the participation of trans athletes in sports and cite recent botched responses to tough follow-up questions.

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8. Listener Interaction and Humor

• [43:35] Lighthearted segment: Listener calls in with a joke comparing Buck to Hitler and Nancy Pelosi for not being able to serve a tennis ball at 100 mph, leading to extended banter on the most undignified ways to die and listener confessions about fears of choking.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Buck, on the shutdown’s impact:

  “We believe that the shutdown may start costing the US economy up to $15 billion a day.” – (09:13, quoting Scott Bezant)

• Clay, on Democratic motivations:

  “This is not based on what's best for the country. It's based on what's best for the Democrat Party.” (14:06)

• Buck, on political media narratives:

  “If this was a different circumstance, the Democrats would be pounding the damage of the shutdown all day... But it’s on the Democrats.” (09:49)

• Clay, on legal precedent:

  “The best way to stop discriminating by race is to stop discriminating by race.” (07:50, attributing to John Roberts)

• On Kamala Harris’s self-promotion:

  “If you have to tell people how qualified you are for anything, you’re probably not that qualified for it.” – Buck (22:31)

• Clay, on future political trends:

  “The 2030 census is going to be a earthquake politically in terms of the shift of power that is coming to red states.” (29:20)

• Buck, mocking political evasion:

  “Spam Burger is out there... speaking in circles because she can't answer the question in Virginia.” (35:24)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:39 – Opening discussion of shutdown and Capitol Hill press conferences
• 05:40 – Supreme Court case on racial gerrymandering explained
• 08:18 – The shutdown’s economic and personal effects
• 09:13 – Scott Bezant soundbite: shutdown costs $15B/day
• 14:06 – Democrat intra-party leadership anxieties and Schumer/AOC
• 22:05 – Kamala Harris’s “most qualified” remarks mocked
• 27:00 – Fed Chair Powell: economy is solid, undercuts shutdown hysteria
• 27:58 – Prediction markets: House a toss-up in upcoming elections
• 29:20 – Census, redistricting, and illegal immigration’s effect on House seats
• 35:24 – Dems’ awkwardness on trans issues and cultural shifts
• 43:35 – Listener call-in jokes and “worst way to die” discussion

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Tone & Style

The show remains fast-paced, irreverent, and unsparing in its criticism of Democratic strategy and media handling. Clay and Buck mix sharp political critique with levity—mocking both their opponents and themselves, often veering into humorous or bantering exchanges. The language is conversational and colloquial, mirroring the on-air personalities’ mix of seriousness and fun.

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Final Thoughts

This episode gives listeners a comprehensive, conservative-leaning snapshot of the shutdown crisis and its larger political context, interwoven with humor, cultural commentary, and interactive segments. The show positions Republican policy and leadership as sensible and solutions-focused, while casting Democrats as susceptible to infighting, “woke” extremism, and media manipulation.

Listeners walk away with not just the headlines, but a sense of the stakes, future political trends, and some signature Clay and Buck entertainment.

Transcript

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Asma Khalid]

America is changing and so is the world.

[Tristan Redman]

But what's happening in America isn't just a cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

[Asma Khalid]

I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. i'm.

[Tristan Redman]

Tristan Redman in London and this is the Global Story.

[Asma Khalid]

Every weekday we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.

[Tristan Redman]

Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Clay Travis]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Clay Travis]

And I'm glad that you're watching these press conferences so others do not have to watch these press conferences, because that sounds miserable.

[Buck Sexton]

We still haven't figured out what, like, nice, you know, wine and cheese basket you're gonna send me for being the one of this duo to read Kamala's 107 days clay. That was towards.

[Clay Travis]

Did you finish it?

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah. Oh, I read it on the. On the Taiwan plane. I read it. And my Lord, you know, it's. Every day is a chapter. Think about that. Think about the mentality. Or rather every chapter. Yeah, every chapter is a day. And so you're like, wait, I have. Once you get to deep enough in, you're like, I have 70 more chapters of this.

[Clay Travis]

I didn't know that was the way it was organized. I guess it's very simple to organize in that respect. But. So it's just a minute analysis of the entire campaign, then.

[Buck Sexton]

I'm just saying you're leaving some of us behind, taking slings and arrows while you're out there at the beach at the new house. Some of us are reading Kamala's memoir because, you know, team player and all that. You know, it was. It was actually more brutal than I thought. Um, let's get into the realities of this shutdown and what is at stake. Also, China. China saying that they are going to play hardball with Trump on trade, gearing up for what they think will be another stock market plunge. They're going to try to make the market plunge in this country. So we'll discuss that. And then something else. Just a story in the background for us to dive into as we can. The percentage of students identifying as non binary or trans has suddenly fallen off a cliff. Isn't that so interesting? And we will get into why that is and what, of course, the left will be saying about this. We've also got Ryan Gardusky joining us later on the program to talk about the big elections coming up in a few weeks. And then we'll also be talking a bit of California, my friend. We'll be having a California discussion with Steve Hilton, who is running for governors there. Yes, sir.

[Clay Travis]

Also, as we are talking to all of you, there's actually a very potentially transformative Supreme Court case that is being argued basically about majority black districts and how you reconcile that with the equal protection clause. And there is a possibility, and it is not an insignificant one, that we could see all racial gerrymandering declared unconstitutional as a part of this court case. And so there is questioning going on about that right now. And it could be incredibly, incredibly impactful for what, for instance, the House is going to look like in 2026. Because right now, and this is legal nerding a little bit, there is a balancing act between how you apply the Civil Rights act, which has been applied to basically permit these majority black districts, even require them, while also analyzing it in the context of the, of the sort of equal protection clause which would not allow race to be factored in. And then how is it implicated with, for instance, affirmative action in race based decision making as it pertains to colleges and universities. So it's a big case. And I think there is a possibility that the Supreme Court finally says once and for all, racial gerrymandering is unconstitutional. It's certainly not necessary compared to the 1960s. And so that case is being heard right now as we all talk to you. And that could be profoundly transformative.

[Buck Sexton]

I think that our guiding light is it lodestar. Isn't that how you say, is that the, is it lodestar? I know there's the Lone Star State.

[Clay Travis]

But isn't load there's a lodestar. There's also the North Star as the light upon which you should follow. So there's multiple different stars that are guiding light.

[Buck Sexton]

Look at Clay with the astronomy over here. He's a man of many talents, wears many hats. But yes, our lodestar on this, on all these issues should be the best way to stop discriminating by race is to stop discriminating by race, which I'm pretty sure is Alito. Was that Alito or was That I.

[Clay Travis]

Think it was John Roberts.

[Buck Sexton]

Was it?

[Clay Travis]

I think it was the majority opinion of John Roberts, if I remember correctly. If you guys can go back and do fact check on that. But I think Roberts wrote that majority opinion and that's his line.

[Buck Sexton]

You know, balls and strikes. Sometimes even Morning Joe gets it right. You know what I mean? So there you go. All right, now let's dive into this shutdown brinksmanship here for a second, because what's happened, Clay?

[Clay Travis]

So we're in day 15.

[Buck Sexton]

You've got military members and you've got people who are working for the government in things we actually need and want the government to do, who at this point have missed a paycheck. Right. Most people are paid bi weekly. So now if you are paycheck to paycheck, there's no money. So now you're running up credit card bills. Now the family stress is increasing. And it's very important that the American people understand Republicans were ready to do the same funding that Chuck Schumer and the Democrats voted for. What was it last March? I think they're willing to just keep funding the government. Democrats are holding hostages here. Democrats are the ones that won't go forward and do this in a reasonable, rational way. And the Treasury Secretary, Scott Besant, is saying this is just going to start lighting our money as a country on fire if we don't get this thing settled. This is cut to Secretary Bezant. Play it.

[Scott Bezant]

We call on the moderate Democrats in the Senate to be heroes. Be heroes. Break away from the hive of radicalism and do something for the American people. Because we are starting to cut into muscle here. We believe that the shutdown may start costing the US economy up to $15 billion a day. And this is decision the Democrats are making. And one of the reasons that they are not being held to task is because the mainstream media is not coming at them the way they would have if the Republicans were willing to keep the government close.

[Buck Sexton]

That's absolutely true. Now they don't have. Clay, I think we could agree the same power that they once did to completely shape and dominate the narrative on this. But we do know that if this was a different circumstance, the Democrats would be pounding the damage of the shutdown all day. I'm sorry, the media would be pounding the shutdown damage all day long and making sure that it was front and center in every newscast and every news cycle. But it's on the Republicans. I'm sorry, on the Democrats.

[Clay Travis]

Yes, 100%. And I just. I understand there's starting to be some impact. I have the sneaking suspicion they're doing another one of these stupid no Kings rallies this weekend. I believe, Buck, for all of the people who are complete losers and can't find a better way to fit to spend a spectacular fall weekend and walking around screaming about how you don't support kings. I think they're waiting till after the no Kings rally happens because they don't want to try to strip its momentum to actually reach an agreement. That's my conspiracy theory here. Because if you acquiesce and bend the knee on the Friday before the no Kings rally, then everybody's like, do have kings. Oh, and all of this is about Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries trying to maintain their limited House and Senate authority and stave off, stave off everybody out there. And so I think that's really what this is based on more than anything else. And I suspect that they will bend the knee sometime next week. That's my guess. I also think Trump stole so much of the thunder with the Middle east peace agreement. I just don't even hear that many people asking about this. Does anybody come up to you? People come up and ask all sorts of questions when I'm out and about. Nobody's asking about the shutdown. And I understand people out there who have government jobs and some of you are listening to us. You're going to get paid. And so there isn't any suggestion that eventually you're not going to get paid. Now, maybe you don't have savings and I get that's frustrating. You have to pull out the credit cards and things like that. But this is all Democrat driven. And I think it's much connected to this no Kings rally on the 18th where they're trying to avoid creating a stir by bending the knee before the rally. I really think there's a big part of it that's just predicated on this.

[Buck Sexton]

That's definitely, I think the analysis you put forward on next week sounds very reasonable, very likely to me. And as we're seeing where this goes, remember, Republicans have voted nine times to reopen the government. So the Republicans have said, let's go. They're not the ones that are the sand in the machinery or in the, in the gears. Here it is the Democrats who have said sabotage the reopen. And it is because now they say they want another $1.5 trillion in spending. They're in the minority. They shouldn't be in a position to make these kinds of demands. And they are making demands at the expense of right now, good sense. And a lot of people who anxiety is rising. Look, you know, Clay, I get it, people are going to get paid. But having been a government employee who lived paycheck to paycheck for many years, you know, you don't want to run up credit card bills, right? And it's, it's just an anxiety. If you're, you know, you got a family, maybe you've got a couple of kids, there's that anxiety of I did my part, I'm showing up. And remember this is now we're talking not about people who there's a lot of what I call low show jobs in the federal government, especially in the Beltway, where you show up, you don't show up, it doesn't really matter. We're talking about military service members now. We're talking about people that we have as a society, as a country asked to do these jobs cuz they need to be done. And I know we're going to end up paying them. But the Schumer shutdown is just complete theatrics. It's unnecessary. And it's to your point about the no Kings rally, it's just so they can say we stand and fight, we stand and fight Trump and that Chuck Schumer can say that so that AOC doesn't go from Congresswoman AOC to Senator aoc.

[Clay Travis]

That's right. This is not based on what's best for the country. It's based on what's best for the Democrat Party. And I don't think it's lost that. Essentially you have two guys from New York City that are the top Democrats in elected office right now. One of them obviously Hakeem Jeffries, who is I think a middling at best leader for the Democrat Party. Whatever you think of Nancy Pelosi, she was able to corral, herd the cats, dominate them and strategically she had some sort of vision. Chuck Schumer, I think also very middling level leader in the Senate and they recognize that they are being challenged. Look, there's talk out there that one of Mamdani's top political aides is going to challenge Hakeem Jeffries in the midterm and may take try to win that primary and knock him out of being in Congress at all, which is a sign of how little respect they have for his leadership to challenge in a serious way the Democrat Minority leader. And then as you just mentioned, Chuck Schumer lives in eternal fear of AOC deciding she wants to be a senator and wiping him out. So I Think that's really what this entire government shutdown is about. Schumer upset the crazy left wing when he agreed to this back in March, and he's decided he can't do it again.

[Buck Sexton]

What does Schumer do if he wakes up and he's not a senator anymore? Lawn bowling? Mahjong, New York Times crossword puzzle? Like, what is, you know, Schumer at this stage of the game, Clay, his whole thing is he's just got to be in the game.

[Clay Travis]

This is why I argue in an ideal world, there would not be professional politicians because there would be people who do things other than politics. And so if they're not politicians anymore, their life doesn't feel. Feel as if it's without purpose. I think one reason why so many of these politicians in their 70s and 80s are refusing to step away is they don't have anything else. And I think Chuck Schumer is a good example of that. Now, I think the one thing Chuck Schumer has working in his favor is, I don't know that AOC wants to run for statewide office in New York. I think she wants to run for President of the United States. So Chuck Schumer may benefit because AOC's ambitions are bigger than the office that he currently holds. That would be my forecast. And I think you and I both have said we don't think it's crazy to contemplate AOC as the VP nominee with a Governor Gavin Newsom as the. As the nominee for the White House.

[Buck Sexton]

Is AOC a more dynamic personality and online avatar by leaps and bounds than Kamala, who was just a VP under Biden? Not even. Not even a question. Right. So of course she could be the vp.

[Clay Travis]

And she's got the Bernie Sanders stamp of approval, as Bernie is now, frankly, too old to ever run for President again. Uh, we'll take some of your calls. The talkbacks Little early preview. Don't even look at them, Buck. They are hysterical. As you may well remind, remember from yesterday when I made the greatest argument in the history of the show about the worst way to die, and a lot of you had opinions on that. Ceasefire agreement in the Middle east this week, along with the release of the remaining 20 living hostages, brought great relief for Israeli citizens. They waited more than two years for this moment. In that same spirit, it's worth highlighting what one of our longtime partners is doing. The International Fellowship of Christians and Jews. That's the ifcj. For four decades, the Fellowship has brought Christians and Jews together to solve big problems facing the Jewish people in places all over the world Israel, but also the former Soviet Union. One of the problems is feeding the hungry and those without means. That's why six days a week IFCJ teams in Israel are on the ground hand delivering boxes of food to feed and comfort the poor, particularly the elderly, some of which are the last remaining Holocaust survivors. I went to this food bank and helped to create food to be distributed that many of you have helped to pay for. Put your faith into action by taking part in the IFC J's mission. To find out how, visit IFCJ.org that's IFCJ.org Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Mic drops that never sounded so good. Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Asma Khalid]

America is changing and so is the world.

[Tristan Redman]

But what's happening in America isn't just the cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

[Asma Khalid]

I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. hi.

[Tristan Redman]

I'm Tristan Redman in London and this is the Global story.

[Asma Khalid]

Every weekday we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.

[Tristan Redman]

Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Advertisement Voice]

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[Clay Travis]

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[Clay Travis]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Clay Travis]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Clay Travis]

Welcome back in Clay. Travis Buck Sexton Show. Appreciate all of you hanging out with us. Buck, your girl Kamala, you just spent 107 days with her. She says some people have said I was the most qualified candidate ever to run for President. This is what she said last night. Cut 27.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

That is a decent resume but go ahead. Well, some people have actually said I was the most qualified candidate ever to run for President. I liked your I like the some people people say very nice but go ahead. I'm just speaking fact.

[Clay Travis]

Yeah, some people say that you and Ibuck are the most handsome people to ever do radio. Smartest too.

[Buck Sexton]

Some people are saying. Some people are saying. I don't even think Kamala caught that. She did a trumpism there but the interviewer did. I would say this about it Clay. If you and you know this, if you have to tell people how qualified you are for anything, you're probably not that qualified for it. You know, if you. If you have to make a thing of I'm so qualified to people who know you and know your background, are you qualified? I think she does protest too much.

[Clay Travis]

And look, I. I would just point out that Kamala is the ultimate DEI candidate. Oh, yeah, Yeah. I mean, but I think she's representative of a lot of people who got elevated because she looks like what, left wing liberal women want leadership to look like some men. But really, I said yesterday, and every time I say this, people are like, I didn't vote for. I understand there are tens of millions of people in the. In the country who are white women. The only group, the only identity group that increased support for Kamala compared to Joe Biden was white women. Now, a lot of you white women out there are like, that wasn't me. Reminds me of Kid Rock and the girls are all dancing rap songs, which are incredibly degrading in lyrics. And she's like, not saying my name. Uh, so I understand a lot of you out there listening to us right now are white women who voted for Trump. But white women were the only group that supported Kamala more than they supported Joe Biden. And that is why I think, really, when you break all this down, the leader of the WOKE movement and the broken brain universe is actually liberal white women. They are wrong on everything. And. And they are the ones that are leading us the most astray. I'm not going to leave you astray. Hopefully tomorrow when I give you yet another winner in prize picks. We've got the major league baseball playoffs underway. Setting record ratings. College football. Setting record ratings. NFL setting record ratings. America's healing. And a lot of people just want to kick their feet up and watch sports because they think of themselves. Hey, Trump is president. Everything's going pretty well. Maybe I'll just have a beer and watch a game. And maybe I'll play along with Clay at prize picks. You can play now in New York. You can play now in California. You can play in Texas. You can play in Georgia. 40 plus states. Download the prize picks app. Use my name, Clay. And when you play $5, you get back $50. I've given you six NFL picks, and we have won four of the six weeks. We're on fire. Can we make it five out of seven? The pressure ratchets up. I'll tell you the pick tomorrow. Pricepix.com code Clay, you've got Chuck Schumer.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

Out there fundraising during a government shutdown. He's fundraising in California during the shutdown. Yet you have our men and women of all of our federal agencies probably not going to get a paycheck. We're going to do everything we can to take care of them. But people working during a shutdown to keep all of these citizens safe, they don't care about their citizens. Schumer says it's the greatest thing to happen to Democrats, really to happen to our country. It's hurting the citizens and we're going to keep fighting for the American people. That's what Donald Trump does and that's what he's going to continue to do, whether it's Chicago, Portland, Memphis, right here in D.C. all over this country. He's going to keep Americans safe because they are not.

[Buck Sexton]

That was the attorney general Pam Bondi, speaking about the situation of the shutdown right now. And I just think it couldn't be more clear that this is Democrats who are willing to basically do whatever, do anything in order to make it seem like they are opposing Trump and opposing the agenda that he has. I think that the politics of this are not nearly as beneficial for them as they would like to pretend, especially Clay, given that this week the Mideast peace deal has gone into effect. The end of the Israel Hamas war has now happened thanks to Trump's negotiations. The economy, I mean, here we go. For example, Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump is not always very happy with him. He is saying this about where the economy is. Play:5.

[Clay Travis]

Based on the data we do have, it's fair to say that the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting four weeks ago. Data available prior to the shutdown, however, show that growth in economic activity may be maybe on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected.

[Buck Sexton]

So things are chugging along with the economy pretty well, I think. Overall. The market obviously is at a very high point right now. And Democrats are trying to figure out how to turn this shutdown into political wins. Here is the numbers guy. We'll have our numbers guy, Ryan Gardusky. So Harry Anton is really the poor man's Gardusky, I think. But we have Ryan Garduski joining third hour. Harry Anton of CNN is pointing out that this whole shutdown situation, if you look at the polls and how it's affecting next year's midterms, which are just over 12 months away from where we are right now, not looking good for Democrats. Play 11.

[Ryan Gardusky]

You go back six months ago. You go back to April K. Ball, when what were we looking at? Well, we were looking at the Democrats with a very Clear shot of taking control of the US House of Representatives. According to the Cauchy prediction market odds, we saw him in an 83% chance, but those odds have gone plummeting down. Now we're talking about just a 63% chance while the GOP chances up like a rocket, up like gold, up from 17% to now a 37% chance. So we'll look like a pretty clear Democrat. Likely Democratic win in the House come next year has become much closer to a toss up at this point, although still slightly leaning Democratic.

[Clay Travis]

Look, what he referenced is what I actually think is going to start to take over the entire political landscape. And I wish Rush had had the opportunity to see this coming. Polls are often as all of you know, 1 billion percent worthless, but some of them are actually really good. The problem is we don't know until the actual election happens. And then we can go back and retroactively say, okay, this group got it right, this guy got it right, this gal got it right. Remember the genius from Iowa and Seltzer that everybody just stopped talking about? But she had the poll that said Kamala was going to win in Iowa and then.

[Buck Sexton]

Oh yeah, wasn't it like, like 13%? Some crazy number.

[Clay Travis]

Some number.

[Buck Sexton]

I mean, she retired after. It was so she, she, her, her.

[Clay Travis]

Poll was so bad that she retired. That was the final poll of her career. And she couldn't have been more wrong. I think Trump won Iowa by 13 or 14 points. I think she had Kamala winning Iowa by three or something like that team, look that up if you would. And Trump won it by 13ish. So she was 16 points wrong. The prediction markets, which is what Harry Intin just referenced, have a much better track record. And in real time, you can put your actual money down on what you think is going to happen in elections. The prediction markets got it almost 100% right on 2024 with Trump, and they are trending in a very positive direction right now for Republicans. Top of next hour, we'll dive in and I'll play you some cuts. There's a lot of different moving parts, but this Supreme Court case that's going on right now that would basically outlaw racial gerrymander, that has a potentially just seismic impact on what could happen in the House. We know that California is trying to rig the game and add five more seats in favor of Democrats out in their state. But Texas has moved. There's now talk that North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, ultimately the favor on redistricting is going to move towards Republicans and buck two things Also, that are very significant. One, there's still the possibility that at some point in time, the courts are going to rule you can't count illegal immigrants for purposes of House representation. This should be a way bigger story. I'm surprised that Republicans don't spend more time on it. Uh, you. They. We can argue about who's voting and who's not legally and illegally. But leave that aside. You are able, for purposes of House representation, to count illegal immigrants when you do that. That means that according to studies I've seen, Democrats are picking up 10 to 15 House seats solely based on illegal immigrant populations in this country. You shouldn't be able to count illegal immigrants for purposes of census representation in the House of Representatives. Two, they got the census wrong, and nobody will really kind of dive into this, but there should actually be more House seats in red states. The 2030 census is going to be a earthquake politically in terms of the shift of power that is coming to red states. And it will basically cancel out Democrats ability to win the way that Kamala tried to win in 2024. If she had won, she came within 220,000 votes of winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If she had won those, she would have won 270 to 268 in the electoral College, even though she would have lost the popular vote. With the way that the redistricting is going to be set up and the way that the. The electoral votes are going to be reallocated, red states are going to pick up around 12 electoral votes, which means that pathway will no longer exist. There will be no blue wall. That path to win will not exist starting in 2032 should start in 2028. Maybe the Supreme Court is going to look at this and say, yeah, the census has to be reallocated because they got it wrong the way that they did it in 2020. And that should be a way bigger story, and so should the rig job of counting illegal immigrants. But these are things that are substantial and moving in the direction of Republicans, but may or may not be impactful in 2026. That's a little bit of nerding out for everybody.

[Buck Sexton]

I think part of the problem they're going to have in 26 as well is even though it's not a presidential election year, you do need to have some feeling, I believe, that there is national leadership in place. Even when you're talking about voting for your individual congressman, you want to feel like there's a broader narrative at least, like, I'm voting for the Democrats because of the following things. This is only applicable not to dyed in the wool Democrats or Republicans, but to the voters who may show, may switch their minds. There's, you get to the why. And I think Democrats right now entirely lack a why, in part because they, the Trump agenda is working so well. And as promised, I think people also, the voters as a general, a general thing, are impressed by somebody who says I'm going to do the following things and actually does it for those who are at least open minded to think about results and policies. Maybe that's only the middle 10% of the electorate. You know, that's, that's up for grabs at all in some capacity. But I think they see Trump doing what he said he would do and that, that gets filed away and the okay, that's, that's something to pay attention to. And then I think beyond that, the Democrats, what, what do they really, what do they offer? Do they want to go back to open borders? I do think you're right. You've said this before and we'll get into some of the trans agenda stuff at this point. I think they're hoping the Supreme Court actually bails them out and then it turns into a law of the land thing where it's oh, you know, we, we really, we really think that the 18 year old guy should be able to play on the girls, you know, lacrosse team. But the Supreme Court, sorry, you know, but we're very strong on that issue. If we could only get a new Supreme Court, maybe we need to pack the Supreme Court because otherwise they're just going to keep getting dunked on TV and dunked on by Republicans every time. I mean look at, I look at Spamberger over there. Yes, I know it's Span Burger, but I think Spam is more, more apropos. Spam Burger is out there. She's just like speaking in circles because she can't answer the question in Virginia.

[Clay Travis]

As a mother of three girls, I mean she is such an empty suit and I mean I feel bad for the people of Virginia. How in the world did she end up being their default? Nobody can even step to and challenge her. Some of these people are such worthless, worthless leaders. And the fact that states could end up big, high population states could end up with leaders like these. It's really an indictment of the Democrat Party. And we've got a fun clip for you of Piers Morgan that will play at some point during the course of the show. One of the California Democrat candidates that is running out there said that we should have a gender neutral Olympics in Los Angeles. And she said she thinks she doesn't know, but she thinks that a woman might be able to run faster than Usain Bolt. I mean, these people have broken brains and it's actually more established. You know, they don't really get pushed on these ideas very often, Buck. And I think what you saw with Spanberger and I think what you saw with Pierce questioning is there's a little bit more willingness to follow up and just say, okay, well, can you just address the question that I directly asked you? And their inability to answer and their immediate filibustering proves that there is no substance there. They just go to this pabulum and this sort of robotic, generic answer, thinking that they can get through it without offending the trans community. And we've also got a clip, by the way, I did not expect Kieran Knightley, who is a. Is it fair to call her a buxom lass? I think so because she was in all the Pirates of the Caribbean movies.

[Buck Sexton]

Is she buxom, though? She's very skinny.

[Clay Travis]

Okay, maybe that's. Well, I was going to call her Bucks because she was in the pirates movie and it feels like the pirates are the people. She may be a.

[Buck Sexton]

She may be a Bonnie Lass.

[Clay Travis]

Bonnie that might.

[Buck Sexton]

I'm not sure she's a buxom lass.

[Clay Travis]

Okay. Bonnie Lass is a better description. We've got a fun clip of her being asked about the J.K. rowling protest. And I just want you to hear her reaction. The tide has turned in a significant way. You've got some data on this, too. We'll talk about it during the course of the program. But the whole, like, I'm trans, gender, non binary, all these kids are, as they come out of their houses and start to return to normalcy in the post shutdown era, are starting to reject this absurdity of the trans world. And we're starting to see what I think is true, which is the modern day lobotomy is the teenagers who had the gender reassignment surgery performed on them by adults who claimed that this was a kind thing to be doing. No, it was actually mutilation. And some of these doctors, I think, should be bankrupted and frankly charged with crimes.

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah, it's absolutely. We're gonna get in some calls, some talkbacks here in just a second. The preborn network of clinics stands out as the nonprofit organization that does so much to save the lives of unborn children. Consider how they welcomed Linda and helped her bring her child into this world. When Linda learned she was pregnant, she knew abortion was wrong. But fear almost consumed her and led her to dark places she didn't know where to turn. Then she found a Preborn Network clinic. She was met with prayer, compassion and the truth that pierced through the fear that she had. Linda chose life for her baby. Linda got truthful answers about matters related to her unborn child at that preborn clinic. When a mother hears truthful, healthy answers, lives are saved. Just $28 provides a free ultrasound. To women like Linda, that single gift, that experience of meeting her unborn child makes all the difference. This is your chance to make a difference too. But you the pro Life community will you answer the call, pick up your phone, dial pound250 and say baby. That's pound250, say baby or donate [e-mail] Buck preborn.com V U C K Sponsored.

[Clay Travis]

By Preborn Want to be in the know when you're on The Go the Team 47 podcast drop highlights from the week Sundays at noon Eastern in the Clay and Buck podcast feed. Find it on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Asma Khalid]

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[Tristan Redman]

But what's happening in America isn't just the cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

[Asma Khalid]

I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, dc.

[Tristan Redman]

I'm Tristan Redman in London and this is the Global Story.

[Asma Khalid]

Every weekday we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.

[Tristan Redman]

Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Clay Travis]

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[Buck Sexton]

I've shared our story about how we were able to stay in contact with loved ones last year during that natural disaster. Being able to stay in touch with family as they navigated through the storm gave us a lot of comfort.

[Clay Travis]

There are a lot of testimonials about Rapid Radios like this one from Ms. Stinson. This is just a few words from her full testimonial. She wrote, I was able to check on my elderly parents and my brother immediately. Group talk or private? It's just like the old Nextel. They will program everything to all Rapid radios before they're shipped to you. I absolutely highly recommend their products with.

[Buck Sexton]

No monthly fees and pre programmed simplicity. Rapid Radios keep you connected when everything else goes dark. Trusted, tested, legit. Visit rapidradios.com today. That's rapidradios.com now.

[Clay Travis]

You can stream Fox News live on the Fox One app. Stay on top of breaking news and the biggest stories live as they happen. All from the Fox voices you trust, bringing you the coverage you won't find anywhere else.

[Buck Sexton]

Start your 7 day free trial today. Offers are subject to change. Go to Fox One for complete terms and conditions. Fox One we live for live streaming now.

[Clay Travis]

Welcome back in Clay Travis Buck Sexton Show. Scott's got a good question. KK on the talkback and we've got lot of phenomenal talkbacks that we're going to be hitting during the course of the show. He is, he is out there and he's got a question. It's a great one. Let's listen.

[Buck Sexton]

Hey Clay, what do Hitler, Nancy Pelosi and Buck have in common? None of them can hit a hundred mile per hour serve Buck. Whoa.

[Clay Travis]

You couldn't hear it. I just, I just want to echo because I know the audio wasn't great. He asked what do Hitler, Nancy Pelosi and Buck have in common. None of them can hit 100 mile per hour.

[Buck Sexton]

All right, all right, all right, all right. This is enough is enough. I just, just start the clock. I got to get out on the court. I'm actually going shooting this weekend. I only have time for one thing because I have a small child and my wife, you know, can't carry the whole load. But I am going shooting this weekend. Next weekend I'll be doing tennis. I will bring out the actual working speed gun and I don't care if I have to show up here with my arm in a sling to do radio the next day. We're getting the triple digits, buddy. We're getting the triple digits.

[Clay Travis]

Scott. I mean, that's a, it's a strong argument from Scott. Then a lot of you producer Ali can step in. We, you and I can give opinions on the most controversial things on the planet. And people are like, yeah, okay, yeah, kind of get it.

[Buck Sexton]

Abortion, trans, war and peace. No problems. No problems.

[Clay Travis]

No issues at all. My take on the worst way to die has provoked an unbelievable uproar. And some of you have great taste and recognize that I am in fact correct. Danny in New York City, W O R Radio this is pretty funny, J.J. thanks.

[Buck Sexton]

I'm sitting here alone in my car eating Chick fil a and now all I can think about is I hope I don't die. I said at least if it happened, it would be on Chick fil a.

[Clay Travis]

Like worth it.

[Buck Sexton]

It's not like you're eating, you know, some like roadside half cooked burger or something.

[Clay Travis]

Some, you know, coast to coast. Becky in Phoenix, News Talk. 550K. FYI. She also understands great arguments when she hears them.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

This is Becky from Phoenix.

[Clay Travis]

I totally agree with Clay. This is hilarious. It's one of my biggest fears too. Or just not being able to breathe. There you go. See, I'm not wrong about choking to death. And then hh, Carol in Houston, all these great people out there, they understand. Carol actually listen to what she's done because she's so afraid she's going to choke to death while eating by herself.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

Hey, Buck and Clay, this is Carol from Houston. I have that fear too, about choking. That's why I got my kids in my car, in my house. I had that life back. So if you do choke, even if you're by yourself, you can actually use that on yourself. So if I want to check into that, they actually might be one of your sponsors.

[Buck Sexton]

We actually have. I, I have a LifeVac at home, so maybe they should be a sponsor. I have one here in preparation for hopefully something we never have to use it for. But, yeah, I think, Clay, what you meant, though, is when I said worst way to die, most people think of the most painful, awful way. You meant the most undignified or, like, unnecessary, I think, which is a little different.

[Clay Travis]

I'm gonna explain, expand on my argument. I should have talked more about assumption of risk. If you swim with sharks and one eats you, you've assumed it. When you go to Red Lobster, you don't expect to die.

[Asma Khalid]

America is changing, and so is the world.

[Tristan Redman]

But what's happening in America isn't just the cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

[Asma Khalid]

I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. i'm.

[Tristan Redman]

Tristan Redman in London, and this is the Global Story.

[Asma Khalid]

Every weekday, we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.

[Tristan Redman]

Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Buck Sexton]

This is Jim.

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Asma Khalid]

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[Clay Travis]

When I told people I was making a podcast about Benghazi, nine times out of ten, they called me a masochist, rolled their eyes, or just asked, why Benghazi?

[Buck Sexton]

The truth became a web of lies.

[Clay Travis]

From prologue projects and Pushkin Industries. This is Fiasco Benghazi.

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[Clay Travis]

Listen to Fiasco Benghazi on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

This is an iHeart podcast.