Hour 1 - Debbie Downer vs. Debbie Realistic

Summary

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The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: Hour 1 - Debbie Downer vs. Debbie Realistic

Date: April 10, 2026
Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show (iHeartPodcasts)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers around the high-stakes U.S.-Iran negotiations happening in Pakistan, the ongoing partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the ripple effects these global events have on oil prices, U.S. energy independence, and domestic politics. Clay and Buck examine the economic and political calculus of oil prices, debate who truly benefits from the current situation, take live calls from oil industry insiders, and touch on perspectives within both the Democratic and Republican parties regarding America's stance in the Middle East.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. U.S.-Iran Negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz (00:00–05:39, 10:12–13:39, 30:26–33:06)

• J.D. Vance Leads U.S. Negotiation Efforts:

  • Vice President J.D. Vance is in Pakistan for critical U.S.-Iran negotiations.
  • Vance is cautiously optimistic but warns, “If [the Iranians] are going to try to play us, then they're going to find that the negotiating team is not that receptive.” (Buck quoting Vance, 01:01)

• Skepticism on Progress:

  • Buck takes a pessimistic "Debbie Downer" approach: “There’s going to be a deal to continue figuring out what the deal looks like…this is Iranian bob and weave. This is float like a butterfly, sting like a bee, Middle East style.” (03:08)
  • He believes Iran is using delays as leverage—especially with how little oil is currently moving through the strait (about 10%).

• Strait of Hormuz Status:

  • Only “10% of expected traffic” is moving through, mostly favoring Russian and Chinese interests.
  • Clay presses on the political and economic impact of the partial blockade and how it benefits different groups.

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2. Oil Prices: Winners, Losers, and U.S. Energy Independence (05:39–13:39, 19:03–29:00)

• Who Benefits from High Oil Prices?

  • Clay introduces the idea that many major U.S. oil and gas producers (notably in Texas) benefit from elevated prices—sometimes more than they are disadvantaged.
  • “There is a little bit of a disconnect between what the average consumer thinks the price of oil and gas should be and what oil and gas producers think… Now we're net exporters.” (Clay, 06:31)

• Political Calculus Has Changed:

  • Unlike the 1990s, the U.S. is now a net exporter of oil and gas, greatly shifting who profits and who loses when prices rise.
  • “China arguably becomes a victim. Europe becomes a victim. The countries that are not energy independent. This is actually what Trump has been arguing for so long.” (Buck, 13:49)

• California’s Paradox:

  • Despite green initiatives, about 29% of California’s oil is imported and transits the Strait of Hormuz.

• Inflation-Adjusted Perspective:

  • Clay notes, “If you look at it on an inflation-adjusted basis, oil and gas is one of the greatest buys that exists anywhere in the world. We pay far less now…oil and gas I believe is cheaper than bottled water.” (Clay, 12:49)

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3. Live Oil Industry Insights: Calls from the Patch (19:03–29:00)

Multiple calls from oil professionals across Texas, North Dakota, and beyond:

• Gene from North Dakota:

  • Produces ~1.2M barrels/day.
  • Break-even for profit: $67–$75/barrel for explorers; $50/barrel preferred by refiners.
  • “If you were smart enough to hang on to your mineral rights…it's a pretty good payday for some old guy sitting on a farm up here in North Dakota.” (Gene, 21:05)

• Eric from Midland, TX:

  • Ideal price: $65–$70/barrel (“allows [us] to make plenty of money…rest of the country doesn’t have to suffer”).
  • Higher prices ($100+) “get crazy” for consumers. (Eric, 23:14–23:57)

• Robert from Corpus Christi, attorney with oil interests:

  • There's no real military blockade, the traffic bottleneck is more about price manipulation than fear.
  • “Clay, you hit it on the head. You're finally playing chess when everybody in the press is playing checkers. That Strait…they don't have a navy to patrol it…and what's stopping them is keeping the price of oil high.” (Robert, 24:25)

• Lindy from Houston, 42-year oil veteran:

  • “The driver…is the delta between what they sell the oil for and how much they have to pay for it to get it out of the ground.”
  • $50 oil yields little profit; $100 oil on existing wells is highly profitable but also drives up service costs. (Lindy, 26:16)
  • Notes how being energy independent now changes the impact of international price shocks versus the Gulf War era.

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4. Political & Policy Angles on Oil and Middle East (15:50–17:59, 30:26–33:06)

• Senator Fetterman's Position:

  • Lauded as “consistently reasonable and sane” for his pro-Israel and pro-civilization stance:
    • “If you have to pick a side, pick our side, pick civilization, pick Israel. That's this, that's really the paradigm…” (Fetterman, 16:26)

• Political Pressure Dynamics:

  • Clay and Buck argue that the pressure to resolve the Strait of Hormuz crisis is lower than it would have been decades ago because the U.S. now can benefit economically from higher prices.

• Disagreement Over Trump’s Objectives:

  • Discussion over what oil price is optimal ($50, $70, or $100), and whether Trump and supporters want the Strait open or prefer the current high-price scenario.

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5. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Buck’s Pessimism on Negotiations:

  • “There's going to be a deal to continue figuring out what the deal looks like. And this is Iranian bob and weave…this is exactly what they have been doing all along.” (03:08)

• Clay on Oil Market Incentives:

  • “There is a little bit of a disconnect between what the average consumer thinks the price of oil and gas should be and what oil and gas producers think.” (06:31)

• Gene from North Dakota’s payday breakdown:

  • “If you were smart enough to hang on to your mineral rights…it's a pretty good payday for some old guy sitting on a farm up here in North Dakota.” (21:05)

• Robert from Corpus Christi, on the real reason for the Strait bottleneck:

  • “What's stopping [tankers] is keeping the price of oil high. And you hit the nail on the head with that one.” (24:25)

• Clay on the show’s audience expertise:

  • “You are, you're like our original AI. We can put out a question and get an AI style answer here on the old school phone lines.” (29:00)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00–03:07 – Episode and topic intro, U.S.-Iran talks, Vice President Vance’s comments
• 03:07–05:39 – Buck’s skepticism and breakdown of Iran’s negotiation strategies
• 05:39–13:39 – Oil price calculus, winners/losers, California’s reliance, impact of U.S. independence
• 15:50–17:59 – Senator Fetterman’s comments on Iran and Israel, Clay and Buck react
• 19:03–29:00 – Live calls from oil industry professionals (Gene, Eric, Robert, Lindy)
• 30:26–33:06 – Big picture: oil producers vs. consumers, Trump’s goals, global stakes

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Tone and Takeaways

• Conversational, Wry, Blunt: The hosts move fluidly between analysis and banter, frequently poking fun at each other and the intricacies behind “official” economic narratives.
• Challenging Conventional Wisdom: Both hosts push back on shallow media storylines regarding oil and the Iran crisis, teasing out the complex reality that high oil prices can be both a boon and bane for America.
• Insider Expertise: Inviting real oil professionals onto the show provides detail and validation for their arguments.
• Big Question: With shifting U.S. energy independence, are high global oil prices still bad for America, or is the calculus more nuanced than ever before?

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This hour’s conversation lays the groundwork for understanding how American energy politics, consumer pocketbooks, and international conflicts over oil shipments have become entangled—and why the answers are far less straightforward than they used to be.

Transcript

[A]

This is an iHeart podcast, guaranteed human

[B]

welcome in Friday Edition. Clay Travis BUCK SEXTON SHOW we appreciate all of you who are hanging out with us. Let's have some fun and get you guys informed on a variety of different stories as we head into what should be a great weekend Masters action underway. For those of you who are golfers, it is an official sign for many parts of the country that spring has sprung. We will give you the absolute latest on the US Iran situation. Artemis 2 scheduled for a splashdown landing off the coast of San Diego. Our buddy Ryan Garduski gonna join us at 1 to talk about a bunch of different topics, including this data coming out that nobody's having babies anymore, which is frankly kind of alarming. Much of Western civilization, the population is collapsing. Nobody really to a large extent is talking about it. The existential threat to America and the world it likely is turning out is not going to be climate change or global warming. It's going to be a bunch of people just deciding not to have babies and the population collapsing as a result. We will talk about all that and more, but we begin with the biggest news, which is high stakes negotiations that are poised to take place in Pakistan over the weekend. And Vice President J.D. vance is leading that charge. And he took off earlier today, I think it was actually maybe even last night for the Iran negotiations in Pakistan. And this is what he said right before he got on the plane to begin that trip. Cut four we're looking forward to the negotiation. I think it's going to be positive. We'll foresee, as the president, United States said, if the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we're certainly willing to extend the open hand. If they're going to try to play us, then they're going to find that the negotiating team is not that receptive. So we're trying to have a positive negotiation. The president has gave us some pretty clear guidelines and we're going to see. All right, so update on the markets. The Dow down a small amount. S p500 when I last checked up a small amount, not a lot of movement. Oil and gas has stabilized, dropped substantially during the course of this week and as since kind of dot danced around that hundred dollar mark. Buck, are you optimistic at all for these negotiations that are going to take place in Pakistan? What do you expect if anything? Let's predict if we were coming back on Monday. What does our conversation look like with these negotiations in theory beginning on Saturday? I think I can answer already, but I'm just gonna, I'm just gonna allow you to Debbie Downer us all as we begin the program here on a beautiful spring Friday.

[A]

I cannot tell a lie. As you all know, there's not going

[B]

to be a deal.

[A]

There's going to be a deal to continue figuring out what the deal looks like. And this is Iranian bob and weave. This is float like a butterfly, sting like a bee, Middle east style. This is exactly what they have been doing all along. I. And I'm going to say this. I. I am, I guess, obviously pessimistic about the chance of this being negotiated to a conclusion, but I am hopeful, and this is one of these ones where I would love it.

[B]

It will.

[A]

I will be smiling ear to ear on this show and taking the proverbial paddle and saying, thank you, sir. May I have another? If I'm wrong on this one, some of you will catch the reference to Animal House. It is absolutely the case that the Iranians. I think I should say it, in my view, is absolutely the case that the Iranians view this as now a delay game, and they're using the price of oil and our political considerations as their leverage. Clay, the Strait of Hormuz is not open. That was the big thing here. It's a little open. It's a little open. It's not open. I think they're saying 10% of the expected traffic through Hormuz is going through. And guess who's getting waved on through? Russia, China, friendlies to Iran. And they may be paying crypto. They may be paying tolls we don't even know about. Just to be clear about this, I don't think that's happening. I think Russia and China would be like, you really don't want to mess with us, too. But who knows, right? Who knows? So I am hopeful that this is J.D. vance and Jared Kushner, shining moment. Now, what may happen is the deadline will pass in two weeks. We start bombing them again for a few days. We have press conferences from the Pentagon saying, look at how much we can kick their ass. And then we go, okay, another ceasefire. You guys want to talk? And the Iranians are like, oh, fine, fine. We're willing to talk, and so on and so forth. And again, like I said, I am hopeful. I am wrong on this one. But I do not see, Clay, if the Strait is not open right now, what exactly have we gotten in the ceasefire? And the strait is not open right now, and no one seems to want to talk about that.

[B]

I will think this is all that was.

[A]

That was Debbie Downer to the Max, was it? That was on a Friday.

[B]

Look, I think the number one thing is the Strait of Hormuz being officially open and Iran eliminating its desire potentially to. To blow up freighters filled with oil. Here's something I don't hear anybody talking about, and this is not Debbie Downer. This is Debbie Realistic. There's a lot of big time Trump donors that are thrilled with what the price of oil and gas is right now. So think about this. If you are. And there are a bunch of Texans listening to us right now, if you are in Texas, you are thrilled with what the price of oil and gas is right now. $50 a barrel. It's hard to make money. $60 a barrel. There's tiny little profit margin, $100 barrel of gas. There are people that are going to be having champagne toast going on while they kick back and watch the Masters all over Texas this weekend. As long as these prices remain higher. The reason why I bring it up is there is a little bit of a disconnect between what the average consumer thinks the price of oil and gas should be and what oil and gas producers think the price of oil and gas can be. And the calculus on this is very different than it was in the 1990s when we had to import all of our oil and gas into this country in order to be able to take care of everything. Now we're net exporters.

[C]

And.

[B]

And so. So it's a different kind. So I'm just.

[A]

Wait a.

[B]

Hold on, hold on. So this is.

[A]

Do you think Trump doesn't want the straight. You're saying there are a lot of Trump donors who want the gas price high, so they like this congestion. Are you saying Trump doesn't want the straight open? I'm a little confused now.

[B]

Well, I'm saying I'm not sure that the straight being 100% open is a universal goal of every part of the. Sure.

[A]

But what's Trump's goal?

[B]

Trump's goal, I think, is to get oil and gas down to. There's a bit of dispute over this for a while. He thinks the ideal price is $50 a barrel. The. The Texas guys. Maybe some of you can call in

[A]

and I was gonna say, can we get somebody to put your Stetson down for a second here? Pick up your phone, Texans who work in oil and gas, and let us know what's going on.

[B]

Yeah, actually, I would love that. You don't have to give us your official designation, but if you are listening to us right now and you are involved in American oil and Gas. Here's another point, Buck. Yeah.

[A]

You don't have to call in and say, my name is John Smith. I'm a senior VP at Exxon. I work in this office. You can just call and be like, this is John.

[B]

I know what I'm talking about. And I just bought a Picasso because in the last month I made an extra $100 million because the barrel of gas doubled. But I do think this, here's another stat book that, that I was reading. I've been doing a bunch of research on oil and gas because I'm, I'm fascinated by this entire industry. You know, that California, which is trying to say, hey, we're all into clean oil and gas and we're, we're going to be the green New. You know that 29% of California's gas is imported according to the Wall Street Journal and comes through the Strait of Hormuz, infinitely more than any other state in the United States. Did you know this? I had no idea. It's a tiny percentage of oil and gas that ultimately ends up in the United States that transits through the Strait of Hormuz. California, I believe. I'm going to pull up that stat and I'll. We'll share that article I was reading. California imports about 29% of its overall oil and gas from the Strait of Hormuz. So right now, if you are listening to us in California, your entire basis for the Green New Deal and everything else, in addition to the fact that you have to pay way more to fill up your cars and your trucks, which is infuriating, I would imagine. But, Buck, they are actually bringing in the California dollars, are actually going to these Middle Eastern countries as opposed to staying here at home because California has tons of oil gas. But they're not deciding, talking to me

[A]

about the oil markets and everything. And it's very interesting. And you know, you really also could run a stock market. Like, you're very into this stuff. Well, you could, you could be sitting there with Kramer. I honestly think you're probably better than Kramer. No offense. Actually, no offense to Kramer.

[B]

You could be doing this wrong on everything. If I'm just right about a little bit, I could probably do better.

[A]

But on this issue of where we are with ending the Iran war, not how people in Texas may feel about it if they happen to have a lot of shares of Exxon or Texaco or whatever. I know there's been all these mergers. I can't remember. Does Trump feel good about where things are right now? Do you think that the administration feels like this is where things are supposed to be. I checked this morning, 10%. There are thousands of ships that are still bottled up. 10% of the Strait traffic is happening. And Iran is claiming now the right for national security purposes to inspect and deter any ships coming into the strait that it wants.

[B]

No, he wants the strait to be clear and open. And I do think that the overall precedent being set of open bodies of water, which is a global trade perspective position, should not be able to enact holes. Right. That's different than the Panama Canal or something. That is a man made shipping creation where you certainly are extracting tolls. That's the basis for it. Just like a toll road versus an interstate that's paid for. The idea is that this has to be going through. What I am saying is I do think the politics of this is actually a bit more complicated and maybe the pressure is different versus an individual filling up their oil and gas. And the Texas oilman out there, we got loaded lines from the Texas oil men who are saying this is actually incredibly good. And it's a different calculus when much of the money is still coming into this country, when we benefit in some ways from a corporate perspective on higher oil and gas prices and they want to drill more when prices go up. Now this is just big picture. It's hard to get more oil and gas drilling done when there's $50 a barrel because it's hard to make money. And at $100 a barrel, they make way more money. I would bet that the capacity that could be dialed up in the United States is substantial at those dollar figures. I just don't hear anybody talking about the fact that the calculus has changed when it comes to America as a net exporting country of this is a tremendous success story compared to when we had to bring everything else in. A lot of those dollars on oil and gas now stay in America and actually can provide fuel, no pun intended, in a positive direction for the economy. Now the downside is obviously individual consumers have to pay more. But if you look at it on an inflation adjusted basis, oil and gas is one of the greatest buys that exists anywhere in the world. We pay far less now on an inflation adjusted basis. You know, oil and gas I believe is cheaper than bottled water.

[A]

Again, I find all this, and I mean this, I'm not, I would never be supercilious when you're doing your financial. I find all this deeply interesting. We stopped bombing them so they would open the straight and the strait's not open. This is the this is the fundamental problem.

[B]

I agree. In general, what I'm saying is I'm not sure that the political pressure is as intense on this issue as maybe the general population.

[A]

So then the strait doesn't need to be open?

[B]

Well, I think it needs to be open eventually. But if it ends up eventually opening in a month, I think that there's a lot of oil and gas people in Texas that would say, hey, that's fine.

[A]

So the pressure valve isn't as tight as one.

[B]

That's my argument.

[A]

I got you. Okay, interesting.

[B]

And I may be wrong, but I want to hear from the Texas guys and gals now.

[A]

What are the chances one of them is actually named Tex, by the way, Extra points if you call it and you're like, I've been an oil man for 40 years, my name's Texas.

[B]

I think the oil and gas guys are going to say, clay, you're the only person who's actually made this argument in anywhere in media because it is a different calculus than it was in the 90s and I think not. Surprise, a lot of media have not caught up with what oil and gas independence and us being a net exporter actually means when oil and gas prices go up. It used to be we got entirely gouged and we were the victims. Now we are actually having a great deal of success. China arguably becomes a victim. The Europe becomes a victim. The countries that are not energy independent. This is actually what Trump has been arguing for so long, we had to create it. So just in general and oil and gas guys, y' all can tell me if I'm totally wrong on this or if you're saying hallelujah, somebody's trying. Finally pointing out that things are a bit different than they have been in the past. When rapid radios first introduced modern day walkie talkies, the kind that connect to anyone anywhere in the U.S. guess what? Buck and I, we were early adopters. Our families were early adopters. And we were lucky because when catastrophe hit, we've been able to stay in touch with our families nationwide. Reviews coming in are outstanding. You guys love this company. One customer wrote, these radios work everywhere. Another writes, we bought them for our family and now everyone carries one. Peace of mind alone is worth it. That's why we have rapid Radios communication coast to coast, unlimited range. Go online to rapidradios.com right now they're including over $300 in free gear with your order, including a tactical tactical radio bag, USB charger, EMP, Faraday bag, plus every order includes a 30 day money back guarantee go to rapid radios.com use code radio for 5% off. Free shipping from Michigan when you need to be heard, no matter where or when. Go to rapid radios.com rapid radios communication redefined. News, politics, sports, and a little fun thrown into Clay and Buck. It's a whole vibe.

[A]

Welcome back into Clay and Buck. I gotta say, we keep coming back to this. Whenever we have Senator Fetterman of Pennsylvania talking about issues involving Israel and the Middle east, he's consistently reasonable and sane on this issue. And here he is once again. This is cut nine. Democrat Senator Fetterman of Pennsylvania. I want to let you hear what he has to say. Play it. Why can't we just, you know, root for our military? Why can't we just say, I don't have to agree everything the president has done or the kind of things that he says, but, you know, we're going to, we should be on the side of America and we should be on the sides of civilization and the free world. And I'm on that side. And I don't know why I'm the only Democrat that, that says those kinds of thing at this point, but I think more Democrats should listen to me and say, be on the right side of history and holding Iran accountable. And if you have to pick a side, pick our side, pick civilization, pick Israel. That's this, that's really the paradigm as we see it and have since October 7th and before then, but certainly since then, if you're picking a side on this one, pick the side of civilization and Israel is on the side of civilization. That does not mean it's perfect. America is not perfect. And we will criticize both when necessary. But if it's between that and the mullahs, that and Hamas, that and Hezbollah. Clay, I think a lot of the people, including on the right, who have been getting really weird on this issue, they just have no idea how vicious and sadistic and violent some of these Islamo fascists really are.

[B]

Yeah, look, I think what, what Fetterman is saying, and he's a voice of sanity here, is you can't argue that Iran is a existential threat for, for decades, as Democrats have, and they're all on the record saying it, and then be upset when Trump does something to try and take away that existential threat. By the way, loaded lines on oil, guys. So put on your big hats and get ready for some oil and gas analysis when we come back. I'll take some of these calls.

[A]

We better hear some heavy Texas accents. That's all I'm saying, all right, we invest our money in retirement accounts and mutual funds, ETF stocks, a lot of things. But the real appreciation this past year has come from none of those, but from purchasing gold as part of your IRA and 401k the past year, the last 12 months, the price of gold grew by over 65% in that one year alone. And if you want to look at the long term, I think the picture for gold is even more amazing. 700% increase in gold in its value over the last 20 years. Gold grows in value when money printing is. Inflation and instability are problems and they certainly are. Birch Gold Group, by the way, wants you to know about gold. And so they've just announced their Learn and Earn Precious Metals event. Great opportunity to learn more about macroeconomics and gold and how it plays in this free online event. Rewards you for learning the basics about gold. Text my name Buck to 989898 to join Birch Gold Learn and Earn Precious Metals event by April 30th. Text Buck to 989898 today.

[B]

All right, welcome back in. You never know what you're going to get. Oil. Big oil has loaded up the lines the state. I believe that we have the biggest listenership in Buck is Texas. And we love all of our Texans. And obviously the oil and gas industry is not just confided to Texas, but I've gotten to know a lot of oil and gas guys. And initially Buck, where this came from was actually college football because Texas A and M is the top producing oil and gas school anywhere in the country, basically. And I remember when they redid Kyle Field back in the day, Buck, all the big Texas oil guys who were donating, they said there's three things that got this stadium redone. And let me tell you, if you want to see the fanciest suites that exist anywhere in a football stadium in America, the nicest suites I've ever seen is in Texas A and M. They redid that football field. Texas guys all said the oil guys who were donating the big money, hundreds of millions of dollars to get this thing done, they said there's three things that happen. Johnny Manziel, the SEC and $70 barrel of oil. This was back in like 2010, 2011, and boy, they got that thing built in a hurry. And it is a temple. It's incredible. Okay, so the, the, the point I was making off the top is that there may not be as much political pressure on, on the pro, on the Strait of Hormuz over the price of oil and gas because America, big companies now benefit immensely since we are in exporting net exporting country now because of the massive amounts of oil and gas we produced. And so when oil and gas is $95, $97 a barrel, like it is right now, there's a lot of people in this country that are very happy with that, which is different than in the 90s when we were having to bring in all the oil and gas. And I'm curious from people out there, we got loaded lines. Gene is up in North Dakota. You say you produce a lot of oil up in North Dakota. What is the reaction when $100 barrel of oil is happening so far as you see it?

[D]

Well, we pump about 1.2 million barrels a day of oil out of the ground up here. And if you were smart enough to hang on to your mineral rights and didn't sell them to Harold Hamilton, then you are making, let's say they pump 2,000 barrels a day off your land. That 2,000 times 100 is a pretty good payday for some old guy sitting on a farm up here in North Dakota.

[B]

What do you need to. Sorry to cut you off, but what is your cost? Like, what does oil and gas need to be in North Dakota when you're. In a general sense? Because I know it can vary depending on how depth. And there's lots of complicating factors. But in general, what do you need to have oil and gas be to make a decent profit?

[D]

I've always heard that between somewhere between 70, probably 67 and $75 a barrel. Now, a lot of companies are drillers, and a lot of companies are refiners. They only refine. They don't go looking for oil. Some do both. So it really depends on, you know, where you're at. If you're just a refiner, you want $50 a barrel oil. If you're a explorer, you want $100 a barrel oil.

[B]

Yeah.

[D]

So, you know, but up here, a person needs. If you take the cost of oil divided by 33.69, that should give you what the price of gasoline should be. And if you do that right now at $100, you'll come up with about three.

[C]

Just.

[D]

Just short of $3. And then you add on and we're paying. Right now we're paying $3.49 a gallon for. For gasoline.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Well, thank you for the call. We got a lot of people who want to weigh in. This is a little bit of an education for many of us because I'm fascinated by the business here. Let's see. Eric, you're in Midland, Texas. Midland is a huge oil producing area. What's the reaction right now to the price of oil and gas and what do you think in an ideal world it should be? I'm just kind of curious from a business perspective.

[C]

Hey, guys, great to be with y'. All. Yeah, I think it should be between 65 and $70 a barrel. That allows to make plenty of money. We are definitely oil country here in Midland and Odessa. And you know, we all get to stay busy, everybody's making good money and the rest of the country doesn't have to suffer with the high gas prices and even ourselves. I filled my truck up earlier today. I drive a diesel truck, $175 to fill my truck up. So that stings on all ends. We don't want to see $100, $130 barrel oil like we saw, you know, back in Obama days. It just gets crazy.

[B]

But so if you could wave a magic wand, oil and gas companies make money, but it doesn't become a tax on the larger economics because there's all oil and gases embedded in the cost of everything. Your number would be 70ish dollars a barrel. Would be a good dollar figure.

[C]

That's correct.

[B]

Thank you for the call. These are interesting. Call Robert in Corpus Christi. Robert, are you an oil and gas. What's your background?

[C]

Well, I'm an attorney. I talk to you guys. But I'm sitting here right now watching my pump jack producing oil, you know, about a couple hundred barrels a day. And you know, it's just, it's, it's good to see. I hate it for the country that we're taking this hickey. But, but Clay, you hit it on the head. You're playing, finally playing chess when everybody in the press is playing checkers. That strait of horror movies is open. They don't have a navy to patrol it. It's supposedly at the bottom of the Persian Gulf. So the decisions are being made to not send tankers through, not because they're really that scared. There's really no blockade or anything that would stop them from just sailing right through. What's stopping them is keeping the price of oil high. And you hit the nail on the head with that one.

[B]

I think that. Thank you for the call. I think there's some fear that is certainly taking place here. But my argument would be the longer it takes for the oil and gas.

[A]

Would you, would you want to be an oil like a US or a, you know, a western oil rig captain on one of these one of these ships going through the straight. Just to be clear, I would not take that job right now.

[B]

I would not take that money, but

[A]

I wouldn't take that. I wouldn't take that job for like Sean Hannity money. Like, I wouldn't take that job for big boy money. No way.

[B]

You know what, I wouldn't mind being in the job of right now, though, having a few thousand acres on the Permian Basin right now when it's a hundred dollars, a hundred dollars a barrel. Lindy in Houston is talking about that. Lindy, you're down in. I would say Houston is probably a. Houston and Dallas, the, the two biggest oil markets in the entire United States for sure. In terms of the money rolling in, what are you hearing around Houston? About $100 barrel of oil?

[C]

Well, good morning. I guess I worked in the oil patch for about 42 years, mainly in the international side. And the driver on what the oil companies are looking for is the delta between what they sell the oil for and how much they have to pay for it to get it out of the ground.

[B]

Oh, yeah.

[C]

And you know, when we were $50 oil, the oil companies probably had to spend 35 or $40 a barrel to drill the wells and get them fracked and get that oil produced.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

So they didn't make a heck of a lot of money. So when we take it up to 100 bucks a barrel, you know, on, on the stuff that they've already drilled, they're making good money on it. They don't have a real problem with what's going on. Yeah, but now the negative is if oil prices stay high, their costs are going to go up. All the service companies, fracking, drilling, all water haulage, all the things that go with.

[B]

That's a good point.

[C]

Cost of production, that's going to go up if it stays that high.

[B]

And so do you agree that the ideal price is about $70 for your average oil and gas producer?

[C]

Yes.

[B]

Okay, second question. You've been doing this 40, you've been doing this 42 years. How much different is it now than the first Persian Gulf? You know, the Gulf War when we weren't energy independent. How much more of a, you know, the economics of oil and gas pricing increases, changes based on the amount we're producing. Right. This is one of the big impacts of the Trump administration 1.0. And just the growth in general in what we're able to produce. You got to have seen a tremendous difference in the impact over your 42 year career.

[C]

Yes, I have. But you had the Same phenomenon back in the early 90s with the, with, you know, the invasion of Kuwait. I mean, the price of oil went up. And unless you were messing around in that part of the world and you were in the oil business in West Texas, you were probably okay with that price run up. And you know, the same thing in the invasion of Iraq. I mean the price of oil goes up and if you're not in business there, it does doesn't do a whole lot when you get a big spike in the short run, that just raises your revenue, doesn't raise your cost basis.

[A]

So this is all very, I mean again, Clay, this is all very truly interesting about the oil and gas industry, but how many people in this country are benefiting from the high prices versus how many voters do not like the high prices? And I think that that is, we're talking about the politics of this as well as the economics of this. And also that was a very important point that was made by one of the callers. This is amazing too. We always say this and we mean this. This isn't, we're not like, like sucking up or anything. The amount of knowledge that we can draw upon from all of you all across the country. There's millions of you who are listening and what, when you call in and we have obviously fantastic call screener to make sure we're putting people on the air who really know what they're, know what they're going to say and know, know their stuff. It's incredible. So you are, you're like our original AI. We can put out a question and get an AI style answer here on the old school phone lines. In terms of a level of expertise, I think that's really interesting. But Clay, there's the producers, right? The refiners, the people searching for it, the people refining it, the people transporting it, the people that are and disrupt. I mean all of the big oil CEOs are all saying we want business as usual in the strait. We do not want any of this to happen. Now maybe they feel like they have to say that that's possible. You really think so? Because I think that they just want, look, they're in a business where they get to make money all the time. The world needs oil. They're providing what we need, right? It's like we got an addiction. And the only, and the only answer is more oil. I, I feel like they would just like things to even out here and

[B]

get back to normal. I think the dollar figure is interesting. That $70 they think is good, $50 is where Trump wanted it, they wanted it at 70. There's a Delta there obviously of difference. I think they're very, very aware that people blame them every time prices go up. That's why I always feel bad for the average gas station owner, as we've talked about, because I don't think a lot of people even really understand that they are not gouging you. The only way they make money is when you go inside this average gas station. They make a couple of pennies a gallon on oil and gas. They, they need you to go buy a Snap. They still make Snapple. They need you to go buy a Snapple in the Mirror. Snapple back in the day. I don't even know if it still exists.

[A]

Rush was a big Snapple guy.

[B]

Oh, I. Snapple was great, right guys?

[A]

Wasn't Rush really into Snapple or am I, am I imagining that? Oh yeah, he was a big fan of Snapple.

[B]

That that company really exists very much anymore. But they need you to go into the convenience store and grab a Slim Jim or some potato chips and that's the way they make money. The profit margin by and large comes from purchases in convenience stores.

[A]

Again, taking the 30,000 foot view here though, Clay, are the, are the all, all in their totality? Does, does Trump, does the administration, do the oil companies, do they want the straight to have 100% of the traffic or do they actually. You really think, I mean this is getting a little quasi conspiratorial. You think Trump and his oil, his oil barons want it closed?

[B]

I think that they, a lot of them are not furious. I don't know that they're arguing. I think the political pressure is not all raining down on. It should be open. I think for the global economy we need it open. I'm just saying that the energy independence of the United States and has changed some of the calculus associated with when the price of oil and gas goes up. We used to be net spenders as a country I'm talking about now we're net beneficiaries.

[A]

And so why was Trump threatening to destroy like hospitals and orphanages a few days ago in Iran if they don't open the strait? What was that all about?

[B]

I think the long range. We can't have a situation where Iran controls the Straight of Hormuz for years and years into the future. We cannot have that. But I think the short term political calculus, like if you told me this will be resolved in three months, I don't think the idea that it is a tremendous must fix situation imminently I think there's actually a little bit more negotiating leverage than because of the current energy independence than there would have been in 1990 or 1991. That that's just.

[A]

We get into the summer and there's a nasty mean spike in oil prices. I'm going to remind you of all this.

[B]

Well, and look, there is a disconnect to your point. I think it's an important one between sometimes what oil and gas companies want and what the average consumer wants. And by the way, I'm the average consumer. I filled up my car this morning. It cost me a lot more. I got an suv. I got to fit all the kids in the back of it.

[A]

It cost me like oil prices, schmoil prices. I drive a Tesla.

[B]

I also have a Tesla. I also have a Tesla by the way. I plug it into the wall like a cell phone. It cost me absolutely nothing on electricity by and large car drives itself. It's kind of. I was on a call and one of our, one of our guys said are you. Is that the car driving itself in the background? I'm like yeah, I just get in the car now, just have a bunch of calls, don't have to worry about anything. So I got a Tesla and an suv. I'm covering both ends of the spectrum. Look, I want to tell you about Cozy Earth. It is an incredible, awesome, fantastic company that many of you are finding out how awesome it is. All you have to do is go check it out. C O Z Y Earth. You can get hooked up right now. Robes, slippers, perfect items to introduce to the moms in your life. Robes are unbelievably soft. You know we're a little bit but a month away from Mother's day if you're already thinking about them. Fabric breathable, lightweight, incredibly comfortable. Slippers made with plush. Buck had to correct me on how to pronounce this. Shearling lining. I think I got that right. Supportive footbeds. They're warm, comfortable, easy to wear. They are fantastic great Mother's day gifts here. And with every Cozy Earth gift comes a hundred night sleep trial and a 10 year warranty. So you can send the gift completely risk free. Go to cozyeart.com my name Clay as the promo code for 20% off. That's cozyearth.com promo code Clay for 20 off. C O Z Y earth.com if you see the post purchase survey mentioned you heard about Cozy Earth from the show. That's cozyearth.com code play level up your brain and balance out your day with the right amount of information and entertainment. Clay, Travis and Buck Sexton on the I Hearts radio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[A]

Welcome back into Clay and Bach, where we get to hear Clay's geopolitical analysis, which is something along the lines of, so we take the oil, we go in. We. Or maybe we don't take the oil. You'd know that better than anyone. Do we want the oil? We want the prices high. We don't want. It's pretty amazing stuff that we're finding out here, Clay, that the world is working in 4D chess with oil rigs backed up, backed up, Hundreds of them now. And the oil barons are sitting there like fat cats twirling their whiskers. I don't know.

[C]

I don't know.

[B]

Making a lot of money, a lot of money in the Middle east over the oil not being able to get out either. And Jim in Minnesota, he's fired up. He's saying, I'm not Jim. Fire away.

[D]

Jim, let's.

[A]

Yeah, yeah.

[B]

Can you hear me?

[D]

Earlier in the week, I had to listen to you say that Trump's tweet about annihilating the civilization of Iran. We didn't take it the right way. What he really meant was X, Y and Z. Now I've got to listen to you talk about how oil prices in the Strait of Hormuz being bottled up is good for us.

[B]

No, I didn't say thank you. I didn't say it was good for us. I said it's good for oil people. And now that the United States is a nexus, is a net exporter of oil and gas, $100 a barrel. Oil and gas is great if you're in the oil and gas industry. It's different when you're filling up your cars, but that's the reality. I haven't heard anybody talking about it. They're. They're living it up right now in Texas. They're popping bottles.