Hour 1 - Iran's Bloodred Lines

Summary

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The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode Title: Hour 1 – Iran’s Bloodred Lines
Date: May 12, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Clay Travis and Buck Sexton dive into the most pressing political stories shaping the U.S., with a special emphasis on the escalating U.S.–Iran crisis and its ripple effects on gas prices, inflation, and the 2026 midterms. Joined by Senator Eric Schmidt (R-MO), they explore redistricting battles, party dynamics, and the unusual shifts within both Democratic and Republican camps. The hosts blend political analysis with characteristic humor and candid commentary, giving listeners a comprehensive digest of current political realities.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S.–Iran Standoff: “Bloodred Lines” and Economic Fallout

• No Deal in Sight:
  Buck highlights the lack of progress with Iran:

  "There is no deal on the table. Have you seen the things that the Iranians are demanding as their red lines? ...They want reparations, they want official control of the Strait of Hormuz, they want an end to all U.S. sanctions against them. None of these things are going to happen." (06:06)

• Economic Impact:
  Both hosts cite spiking gas prices as directly tied to Iran tensions. Clay frames this as the central political issue:

  "Affordability, inflation, that is the number one story right now, high gas prices." (05:43)
  Buck adds,
  "Absent a real deal, I don't know how the price of gas comes down 50%." (07:54)

• Military Escalation Fears:
  Buck’s skepticism:

  "I don't think the Iranians are that scared...they feel like they weathered the biggest shot that we've got. What are we going to do now to hurt them more?" (07:33)

• Humanitarian Crisis:
  Clay raises the issue of commercial maritime crews trapped due to the conflict, referencing a Wall Street Journal article:

  "There is a little bit of a humanitarian related crisis that is brewing on these individual ships..." (10:17)

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2. Election 2026: Polls, Platforms, and the Battle for the Chamber

• State Highlights:

  • Michigan:
    Mike Rogers (R) likely nominee; Abdul El-Sayed (D) possibly Democrat pick, seen as a liability:

    "That is not a good sign for Michiganders if they are hoping the Democrats are going to waltz to victory." (04:33)

  • Maine:
    Democrats potentially nominating controversial candidate:

    "They’re picking candidates that are not of a particularly high quality." (05:03)

• Issue Matrix:

  • For GOP:
    Gas prices, Iran, immigration
  • For Dems:
    Seen as largely lacking a positive message:

    "They're still trying to make abolish ICE, which is an awful argument for them. They really have nothing." (09:06)

• CNN Poll Discussion:
  Clay presents new polling (26:16):

  "Democrats are up by three points…no clear leader. It is within the margin of error."

  • Buck points out:

    "Just because Donald Trump is unpopular doesn't make Democrats popular...it is a dead heat." (26:40)

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3. Democratic Party Identity Crisis

• Fetterman Phenomenon:
  Buck and Clay discuss the paradox of Senator John Fetterman (D-PA), seen as publicly moderate but voting with his party 93% of the time.

  “If you're a Democrat who is not in lockstep with them on everything, they freak out. There is no space anymore for a Democrat moderate, or a Democrat who, you know, is a centrist.” (13:01)

  • Clay:

    "There’s almost a 0% chance that Fetterman can be the nominee…in Pennsylvania in 2028…" (14:18)

• Party Realignment Threats:

  • Democratic Supreme Court justice in PA leaves party over antisemitism.
  • Fetterman might consider running as an independent, potentially a major shakeup.

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4. Immigration, Redistricting, & Republican Strategy

• Sen. Eric Schmidt on Redistricting:

  "Now that…the court said you can't have these racist maps, states like California and Illinois…that composition is going to change there, too." (27:35)

• Midterm Stakes:
  Schmidt expresses GOP confidence in the Senate, while warning of a dogfight in the House:

  "I'm confident we're going to hold the Senate. I can't speak to the House. I mean, I think that's going to be a dog fight." (26:58)

• Immigration Enforcement:
  Immigration is a frontline concern, with Clay and Buck criticizing Democrats’ sanctuary policies:

  "18,000 criminal, illegal aliens have been released from prisons…and sanctuary jurisdictions just in one year." – Sen. Schmidt (38:15)

• GOP’s New Aggression:
  Schmidt praises Trump’s legacy for emboldening Republicans on redistricting and electoral fights:

  "Part of his legacy is that Republicans should fight back. I think for a long time, Republicans played a very different game than the Democrats." (32:49)

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5. Economy: Inflation, Wages, and Political Messaging

• Positive Trends, Lingering Pains:
  Clay assesses the economy:

  "We have a low unemployment rate, we have record high stock prices, we have pretty good overall wage growth. The cost of goods is frustrating." (22:14)

• Inflation Drivers:

  "If you strip out the price of oil and gas, the inflation rate is I believe, 2.6, 2.7%...if we can get gas prices back down...the inflation rate comes plummeting back down." (22:44)

• GOP Framing:
  Senator Schmidt touts gains since Trump’s return:

  "Inflation adjusted wage growth was minus $5,000. It's now plus $1,500." (27:18)

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6. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Trump’s Latest Nickname:

  "A new name I came up with yesterday was a Democrat because I was talking about this guy…I think that could be a good one…Their policies are insane. And they would drive our country into ruin." – Donald Trump, as played by Buck (20:22)

• On Democratic Strategy:

  "The thing about crazy is doing the same thing and hoping you get a different result. Oh, the Democrats are crazy and then some because they want to do all the same things with all the same results." – Buck Sexton (13:55)

• On Fetterman’s Paradox:

  "You wonder who he's going to caucus with. I mean John Fetterman...votes 90% democrat and doesn't understand why Republicans like him." – Listener call, paraphrased by Clay and Buck (45:14)

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7. College Sports & NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) Reform

• Senator Schmidt’s Update:
  Pushes for antitrust exemption and revenue-sharing model as keys to stabilizing college sports.

  "If college football is at 4 billion all in right now, NBA's got half the eyeballs at 8 billion...that's where you're going to get the revenue to save the Olympic sports..." (35:21)

• Humorous Aside:
  Buck jokes about his tennis serve and the Olympic committee’s views on his hair (36:28).

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8. Looking Ahead: Democratic Moves and GOP Warnings

• Potential for Democrats to End the Filibuster:
  Clay and Schmidt warn that if Democrats regain full control in D.C., they may abolish the filibuster and “pack the Supreme Court” (38:05).

• Midterm Messaging:
  Immigration, inflation, and law enforcement remain key battlegrounds through the election.

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Timestamps for Core Segments

• U.S.–Iran, Gas Prices, Inflation: 03:22–12:01
• Fetterman & Party Realignment: 12:01–16:07
• CNN Poll & Midterm Analysis: 26:01–27:35
• Senator Schmidt on Redistricting & Immigration: 27:35–34:08
• College Sports/NIL Reform: 34:08–37:27
• Filibuster & Election Integrity: 37:27–39:52
• Listener Feedback (Fetterman FAQ): 45:14–46:23

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Original Tone and Style Highlights

• Direct and unsparing: Hosts call out both parties for perceived blunders, with cutting humor especially at Democratic expense.
• Conversational and energetic: The show moves briskly, bouncing between headlines, analysis, and listener feedback.
• Mix of sarcasm & seriousness: The gravity of the Iran situation sits right alongside snarky takes on campaign messaging and Trump’s legendary nickname routines.

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Conclusion

This episode provides a robust snapshot of the current U.S. political climate, powered by Clay and Buck’s trademark blend of hard news, skepticism, and tongue-in-cheek banter. Core issues include the unresolved Iran crisis, the impact of resulting economic turbulence on the midterms, internal party strife—particularly for Democrats—and evolving Republican strategies on redistricting, immigration, and election law. Insights from Senator Eric Schmidt offer an insider’s view on legislative battles and political maneuvering in D.C.

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Notable Quote to End:

"If tennis goes, civilization goes, the country falls apart."
– Buck Sexton & Senator Eric Schmidt (36:07)

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Transcript

[Buck Sexton]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Clay Travis]

Guaranteed Human support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc, SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures [e-mail] this is Martha Stewart

[Martha Stewart]

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[Buck Sexton]

The wait is almost over. Get ready for the NFL season with the highly anticipated 2026 NFL schedule.

[Clay Travis]

Every rivalry, every rematch and every rookie

[Buck Sexton]

debut with matchups locked and kickoffs confirmed. Be there for every can't miss moment. The full NFL schedule release coming in May. Get all the [e-mail] ScheduleRelease.

[Clay Travis]

Welcome in Tuesday edition, Clay Travis, Buck Sexton Show. I am in D.C. we will have a couple of senators here in studio with us, Eric Schmidt from Missouri at the bottom of this hour and the third hour, Senator Ron Johnson from the great state of Wisconsin. All of that underway. So we will get the absolute latest from Capitol Hill. President Trump prepares and is underway, I believe, for his official for his official trip to China. We will discuss everything surrounding that big inflation numbers that are out as a result of gas prices being up. We will discuss Marco Rubio has surged past JD Vance as the leader in the Republican primary, according to one poll that was released today. We will discuss whether we buy that or not. Aoc, by the way, is the Democrat leading contender, Westmoreland, who many people said was the governor of Maryland, just up the road from where I am right now, weighed in on trans related issues and showed that he, alongside of basically every other Democrat, is actually still crazy. And in Tennessee, where we are in the midst of a redistricting battle, we will discuss the opposition there as all of that is underway. I will say, Buck, there are numbers out that are very positive. We have talked some about this. But in the state of Michigan, Mike Rogers is going to be the Republican nominee and it increasingly is looking like a man named Abdul EL Sayed is going to be the nominee for the Democrat Party in Michigan. That is not a good sign for Michiganders if they are hoping the Democrats are going to waltz to victory. In fact, I actually think this is a sign along with Maine where Democrats are going to nominate a guy with a Nazi tattoo on his chest, that people are losing their minds a little bit on the left and picking candidates that are not of a particularly high quality. But right now, and we'll play this cut for you in a little bit, CNN has a big poll about Democrats versus Republicans. But Buck, not surprisingly, in the wake of the inflation numbers that come out, affordability, inflation, that is the number one story right now, high gas prices. And the question is how soon can that reconciled? Is that kind of how you See the read right now that gas prices need to come down in the fall.

[Buck Sexton]

Well, yes, gas prices certainly need to come down. And apologies for my voice, everybody, in advance. I'm obviously fighting through a little bit of a cold. It does happen even here in South Florida. No matter how warm it is, you can still catch a cold virus because the temperature has nothing to do with it. It turns out, I think, that the reality of the midterm election already is very apparent to people, which is that it's going to be a what's going on here at home election, no different probably, than any other midterm you can think of when we're not involved in a major war. And this sort of war we have with Iran could in fact be a big drag on Republican fortunes. Maybe, maybe not. One thing has become apparent, though, Clay. Skepticism of a an imminent Iran deal was well warranted. There is no deal on the table. Have you seen the things that the Iranians are demanding as their red lines? This is not like we're Trump is saying we are close. And the only way that that line can be believed is if what the Iranians are saying publicly is entirely different from what they're saying privately. But in this kind of a negotiation, why would they do that? Because there would be a tremendous amount of whiplash at home where they're saying one thing and then they go and do another. Clay, they're saying they want reparations, they want official control of the Strait of Hormuz, they want an end to all U.S. u.S. Sanctions against them. None of these things are going to happen. And they're saying without that, there's no deal. So we believe that we're going to strangle them with this sort of blockade. They think they can continue to do what they're doing. And Trump now is weighing military escalation once again. I don't think the Iranians are that scared this time around of military escalation because their leadership, whatever's left of it, is going to be staying underground and they feel like they weathered the biggest shot that we've got. What are we going to do now to hurt them more? So I'm a little concerned about the price of gas as it pertains to all this is the the point. And I've been concerned about it all along. Absent a real deal, I don't know how the price of gas comes down 50%. Also, I'm not hearing enough from this White House, in my opinion, about immigration enforcement. I don't know if that's because it's not happening in the same way post Minneapolis. But if that's the case, I think we've got another problem. And the inflation situation, obviously energy is driving this, but inflation jumped up a bit, which is not a good look either. So these things, I think, Clay, are fixable or at least addressable before the actual votes are cast in the midterm. But we think about it this way. Absent high gas prices in this Iran adventurism, what are the Democrats running on?

[Clay Travis]

They're still trying to make abolish ice, which is an awful argument for them. They really have nothing. Which is why if we can get gas prices back down and get some form of resolution in Iran between now and November. And by the way, Buck, on your mow the grass theory, we could get some form of resolution in November, have the election and then bomb Iran again in December.

[Buck Sexton]

Right?

[Clay Travis]

I mean this, this resolution can be relatively short lived in terms of

whether

or not we're going to get a long term solution. Can we get a short term solution through the midterms which then gives President Trump more freedom? I've been saying this for a long time. I think Trump is going to want a large, some sort of finality associated stroke. And to me, seizing the so called nuclear dust and bringing it out of Iran I think is gonna have a cinematic quality that leads President Trump to believe that that is the perfect ending to this whole thing. Now we still have the straight up Hormuz related issue in that is Iran going to stop threatening ships such that all of them can get out? There was a big article on the front page of the Wall Street Journal over the weekend, Buck, about all of the guys, they're almost all men who are trapped on these boats and can't leave. And they're running out of food and water and supplies on these boats because they're not anticipating that they're going to be held up for months as they are right now. And so the expectation was that they would have long been gone. So there is a little bit of a humanitarian related crisis that is brewing on these individual ships. Meanwhile, Iran's economy is basically completely collapsed. Inflation is, I think it's 70% right now in that to the extent that it can even be measured, people are being fired like crazy from private sector jobs. Public employees have not been paid in months. So I do think the question is what sort of economic pain can Iran endure comparatively? We're not really, I mean the price of oil and gas is up and that stinks, but the actual stock market keeps setting record highs Unemployment is low here, so we're not bearing anywhere near the same sort of economic crisis that Iran is. So I think balancing out how this gets resolved is, to a large extent, what's gonna define the midterms. I will say that there is a lot of hate on the Democrat Party. So it's not so much that the Democrats are surging in popularity. It is that they are dealing with also their own degree of unpopularity.

[Buck Sexton]

Yes. And it is interesting to see, by the way, the way that Fetterman has it both ways. Clay Fetterman is the Democrat that we're always saying, oh, he's so reasonable. He sounds reasonable. He doesn't vote in a reasonable fashion. Or rather, he votes with Democrats 93% of the time. You see him. Yeah, I think he's on with Bill Maher. This is cut 13. Listen to this. I know you're not a believer in marriage, but if you married to someone and you agree 93% of the time, that's probably a pretty great marriage.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

And I mystified by.

[Buck Sexton]

And what's also on the other side, I've had Republican friends, you know, in office, say they're like, you know, our internals. You're more popular with our people than we are.

[Clay Travis]

How.

[Buck Sexton]

And I don't understand that either. You know, when I vote 93% like a damn lie, and I'm more popular with Republicans, I can't explain it.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

I truly don't.

[Buck Sexton]

And I'm in a strange. In a strange place. 93% with Democrats. And yet he's supposed to be the reason. In fact, what you find, Clay, is that if you're a Democrat who is not in lockstep with them on everything, they freak out. There is no space anymore for a Democrat, moderate, or a Democrat who, you know, is a centrist on any of these things. Even in a state like Pennsylvania, where clearly it makes sense for Fetterman's own political future to at least say these things publicly. Now, he has broken with his party on a few votes. That's why it's 93%, not 100%. Plenty of Democrats are 100%, but I just think it's indicative of where their party is right now that they still in every way push for the same ideas that I think got them a big loss in 2024. Clay, they believe they just need another shot. Yeah, they believe they need a shot without Trump on the top. They believe that if they can get the House, they can slow Trump down enough that he's going to become irrelevant for the last two years of his presidency. I mean, I see the strategy here, but you know, the thing about crazy is doing the same thing and hoping you get a different result. Oh, the Democrats are crazy and then some because they want to do all the same things with all the same results.

[Clay Travis]

A Pennsylvania Supreme Court justice just left the Democrat Party over anti Semitism concerns. And Fetterman said yesterday this is a post that he put up, but it kind of builds on what you're saying. I know David. That's the Supreme Court justice and his legendary father Cyril. As I've affirmed, I'm not changing my party, but I fully understand David's personal choice. The Democrat Party must confront its own rising antisemitism problem. Now, Buck, that is intriguing. I was talking with someone in Pennsylvania who knows their politics really well recently, and they said there's almost a 0% chance that Fetterman can be the nominee for the Democrat Party as a senator in Pennsylvania in 2028. Now it's two years away and he'll be up for reelection after serving a six year term. And it's possible Fetterman doesn't like the Senate that much and chooses not to run. And but what that person told me was I think there's a decent chance he runs as an independent. And then the math becomes very intriguing. Now, to your point, is he an independent that caucuses with Democrats? Okay, maybe. But is he an independent that would be open to caucusing some with Republicans? Is he a true independent? How that would shake out is something to certainly pay attention to because Pennsylvania has moved significantly to the right. They elected Dave McCormick two years ago. President Trump won the state comfortably, 150,000 votes. Ish. I think if I'm not mistaken. And so it will be interesting to see how the Democrats handle Fetterman because this will all start up as soon as the midterms are over. As we've talked about quite a lot, the 2028 election starts in January of 2027. So it's going to be here much faster than a lot of people realize.

[Buck Sexton]

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[Clay Travis]

for normal in a world of crazy clay.

[Buck Sexton]

And Buck have your back.

[Clay Travis]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures this

[Martha Stewart]

is Martha Stewart from the Martha Stewart Podcast. Ever wonder how to make hosting look effortless? Here's a secret Getting ahead of the mess with new Reynolds Kitchens Countertop Prep Paper Just lightly wet the counter beforehand so the paper grips and stays in place. Then lay down the Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper so drips and spills stay on the paper, not all over your kitchen counter. You can roll out dough, prep a party spread or cook alongside family. When you're done, cleanup is as simple as lifting the paper and revealing that clean counter underneath. Effortless. You can use it for cooking and baking, prep and even crafting, especially when you need extra working space. Because when the mess is already handled, you can focus on what matters the food the people and the moment. It may look effortless, but now you know. It's Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper. Take a tip from me. Wet it, set it, prep it, done. Make it easy. Make it with Reynolds Kitchen's countertop prep paper, available now in the Reynolds wrap aisle and Walmart, Target, Amazon, and Costco.

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[Buck Sexton]

Get ready for the NFL season with the highly anticipated 2026 NFL Schedule release.

[Clay Travis]

Every ripe, every rematch and every rookie

[Buck Sexton]

debut with matchups locked and kickoffs confirmed, be there for every can't miss moment. The full NFL schedule release coming in May. Get all the [e-mail] schedule release. All right, welcome back into Clay and Buck. So Trump spoke yesterday for quite a bit. We took some of that live here on the show. But he, as you know, is particularly talented at coming up with names for people. Oftentimes, Clay, names that are not too nice. He likes to slap people around verbally. And he has offered up a new one for Democrats. Have you seen this, Clay? This is cut 6. Listen to the leader of the free world, the commander in chief, and his wordplay. A new name I came up with yesterday was a Democrat because I was talking about this guy. I think that could be a good one. You know, I've come up with some extraordinary names, but I was talking about Hakeem Jeffries. He's a low IQ person, and he was asked, he was talking about all these things. He was saying things that were so stupid, so basic and so stupid. He called our Supreme Court illegitimate. I don't agree with our Supreme Court all the time, I can tell you that. But you can't call it illegitimate. If I ever said that, you can imagine what would have happened. But there wasn't a big stir. But he was talking and I said, yeah, he's a dumb guy. And then I said, he's a Democrat. And I don't know if people are going to like that term or not. It maybe catches on and maybe it doesn't, but it's true. Their policies are insane. And they would drive our country into ruin. Their policies are particularly insane because Clay and a lot of these things, I mean, their policy on immigration, yeah, we saw what they let 10 million people into the country illegally. They, they made it happen and it's disastrous and everybody knows it. They would do the same thing over again. But will Democrat catch on? I'm not sure.

[Clay Travis]

Tbd, he is very good at nicknaming. I think that is a, that is a fair reality. I think Democrat is actually a accurate thing because from your perspective, I think you're right. If Iran doesn't happen and the price of gas isn't where it is, I don't even know what Democrats would point to and say things are bad under President Trump because again, we have a low unemployment rate, we have record high stock prices, we have pretty good overall wage growth. The cost of goods is frustrating. And again, the historical analogy I've drawn is how long did it take after Jimmy Carter was out of office in the 1980s for people to start to feel like the price of goods got back to some form of normalcy? If you strip out the price of oil and gas, the inflation rate is I believe, 2.6, 2.7%, which means if we can get gas prices back down, which again, I think is a very significant thing by the time we get to voting in November, then the inflation rate comes plummeting back down because most of this was energy related inflation. But I do think the challenge in the meantime is just like, was it eggs? I was looking, I saw the White House shared price of eggs is down 80% compared to last year. Everybody remembers Democrats came into office when Trump came into office. Immediately Democrats said, oh my goodness, look at the price of eggs. And so they just kind of jump from one argument to another. And as the story shifts, they have to try to figure out what their argument is actually going to be. We are scheduled, by the way, Buck, to have Eric Schmidt in studio with us right here. Coming up in the next segment, we'll ask him about this. What is he hearing from his voters in Missouri? What does he think is the most significant aspect of the midterm election coming up as well when it comes to that? But I want to tell you, this product is super, super cool. On Amazon right now, being able to go out and get this pepper spray. This is a pepper spray that notifies you when the pepper spray is fired. When it's used, you get a notice, up to five people can be notified. So if you've got a son or daughter going out and They've got a job or they're traveling around some late at night. Maybe you got a kid off to college, kid off to school, maybe you got a grandkid. You can be on this, this Sabre home defense launcher as well. It makes a tremendous difference and it will help you take care of your family. And right now, you can go to Amazon. And if you put in Sabre S A B R E. That is S A B R E. If you type that on Amazon right now. Now, this pepper spray launcher, it is amazing. Five people are notified when it is used. And it will help you to make sure that your kids, your grandkids, your family members, your friends, whomever you give this product to, you get a location and a notification when it's used. And you can get a tremendous offer right now at Amazon. All you have to do is type in S A B R E. That's S A B R E on Amazon. Get hooked up today. Welcome back in. Just rolling in. He's got a super busy schedule. We appreciate the Missouri senator, Eric Schmidt. Midterms are coming closer. I wanted to play this for you. This was on CNN a bit earlier. Cut 36. And I want to hear how you think this squares with what you hear from your constituents in Missouri. This is Harry Enton talking about, hey, people aren't that happy with Republicans right now, but Democrats are also historically unpopular.

[Buck Sexton]

I think this poll serves as a big time reality check for Democrats, and that is, it ain't over yet. Especially with the redistricting. When we look ahead to the 2026 race for Congress, look, in March, Democrats are up by six points. Look at this now.

[Clay Travis]

Democrats are up by three points.

[Buck Sexton]

And I want you to note the yellow lettering. No clear leader. It is within the margin of error. We talk about, you know, economic approval rating for the president. We talk about the net approval rating among registered voters. If we look among registered voters, the net approval approval ring, he's 36 points, Underwood to go. There's no way. There's no way Republicans could possibly hold on to the House. But look at this.

[Clay Travis]

Which party is trusted more in the economy?

[Buck Sexton]

It's a tie among registered voters. Just because Donald Trump is unpopular doesn't make Democrats popular. And when you match Democrats against Republicans, all of a sudden it is a dead heat.

[Clay Travis]

All right, so does that square kind of with what you're seeing? How would you assess the Senate? How confident are you in Republicans maintaining control?

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

I mean, I think we're going to hold the Senate. The challenge for a midterm always is you don't have this TR like binary choice like you do in a presidential right where you've got the two leaders of the party going toe to toe and you have to make this kind of binary choice, which is why midterms are a little more harder to judge. But I do think that by the time we get to the fall, Republicans are going to make very clear the contrast. Right. What happened during the four years of Joe Biden. We had a wide open border, right. That's been closed. We're deporting people now. There are 15 million people here illegally. There's still more work to do. I mean, President Trump inherited a disaster of an economy. And to put that in perspective, so for those four years, the inflation adjusted wage growth was minus $5,000. It's now plus $1,500. It's not there yet. Like, we're not there yet. And we should be honest about that. But we're putting in place, I think, the things that are going to make Americans more prosperous. You look at the working families tax cut, a lot of that stuff's starting to kick in now. So I'm confident we're going to hold the Senate. I can't speak to the House. I mean, I think that's going to be a dog fight. But it is interesting now, this, this, this decision by the Supreme Court last week. Oh, yeah, I've written doj. They ought to be on offense going after these districts that are, that are racially, you know, the motivation was race in California specifically. So not only winning sort of on this, the turf that they've always played on that, it's all upside for us. You look at those New England states, they're all blue. There's 40% Republicans in those states. There's not a single congressman from that area. So we might as well play the game here. And now that, you know, the court said you can't have these racist maps, states like California and Illinois, that composition is going to change there, too.

[Buck Sexton]

Senator, it's Buck. Thanks for being with us. Yeah, we were just talking at the top of the show about gas prices up 50%, maybe more, since the beginning of the Iran crisis. How much are you hearing from your state constituents that this is something that is high on their list of concerns? Is this as big a thing as we in the media seem to make of it based on the polling, or do you think it's overblown? Do you think it has a big impact?

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

Well, I don't want to minimize it. I mean, look, you know, I fill My car up with gas like everybody else, and it's higher than it was certainly six months ago. You know, some of these media types that. Not you guys, but who are, you know, making this the central story every day. I didn't hear any of them talking about it when gas prices were actually higher under Joe Biden. Right. So. But I think it's temporary. It needs to be temporary. I do think the president has clearly articulated a limited mission for Iran, which is make sure they don't have a nuclear weapon, take out their missile defense, take out their navy. It's led the way in a path for this negotiation that we're at, and they'll come down. It's a different scenario than when the Democrats, I think, had terrible energy policy that wasn't gonna change. I think you can see the fact that prices will come down, but I'm not minimizing it. I don't like that they're higher than they were six months ago.

[Clay Travis]

When you. Look, you were the attorney general in Missouri yesterday. We had Alex Berenson on the United States government settled with him and acknowledged that Joe Biden back in the day in his administration was restricting what he could say about COVID You have filed a lawsuit there. I'm curious your reactions to two you kind of hinted at. One, the Calais, Louisiana, decision, was that what you expected, which is ended basically racial gerrymandering? And then the second part of that. What do you think? Because we get a lot of questions about this would happen in the future. Is the law changed? Have the precedents been set to keep government from censoring in the event, God forbid, we have another pandemic somewhere down the road. What can and cannot be said.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

Yeah. So the Missouri vs Biden lawsuit that I filed, that went to the Supreme Court, that you got to remember, we've talked about. I've been on your show when this was happening. We filed it before Elon Musk had bought Twitter, right before the Twitter files. So all this discovery that came out showed this vast censorship enterprise that existed, and the Supreme Court kicked it. There was a recent settlement agreement there restricting this kind of activity. So that will. That holds. That's a good thing. I do think we need to go further and make sure that, like, for example, you have a private right of action. If your individual First Amendment right has been infringed by the government, you can go sue an individual bureaucrat who went and did that. That would change the incentive structure.

[Buck Sexton]

But.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

But I think the exposure of it. But look, the reality is this is what tyrants have done since the beginning of time, the first thing they go for is your ability to dissent, and then they come for your guns. I mean, it's like it's a playbook here. So I think we got to be vigilant on this. On the Voting Rights Act. Yeah, this is what I thought they would do. And it was pretty well telegraphed. And there's just no way with the admissions case that came down, you know, this sort of, this, this regime that the Democrats put in place that was only about power really is now crumbling down. This sort of race, the race obsessed and power hungry. And now the courts have said you can't have racist maps. Democrats ironically fought for those racist maps decades ago. Now they're still fighting for them. And it's going to have dramatic implications, not just in the Southeast, but in California, I think is next if DOJ uptakes them to court.

[Buck Sexton]

Speaking of Senator Schmidt of Missouri and Senator, where. Where does it go, you think, with the. We've been talking about the redistricting and these fights now playing out, it seems like the Democrats might have misjudged things a bit in Virginia. I know Clay was talking yesterday on the show about how they're thinking about firing all of these state Supreme Court justices, effectively lowering, like retroactively lowering the mandatory retirement age, replacing them all just, just out with the bathwater and the baby, the whole thing, in order to try to achieve more power in that state. Is this just now, is the status quo now just going to be maximal or maximum partisan gerrymandering in every state without apology and without reprieve? What do you think?

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

Well, I would argue in kind of the new Republican Party under President Trump. One thing I think that will be remembered is his. Well, part of his legacy is that Republicans should fight back. I think for a long time, Republicans played a very different game than the Democrats. I referenced the New England states. That's why when this whole thing started, I was very clear it's all upside for us. We haven't played the same game that they played. And the courts have been clear that you can have maps that are political considerations. You can't have race be the consideration. And ironically, in California, this independent commission they established, which was to game the system, the map maker himself said that these districts were based on race, which is why DOJ should immediately be going at California and upend that map. So, look, I think this is where we're at. And by the way, those Census numbers in 2020 were inflated to benefit Democrat states. You've seen the exodus out of places like Illinois and California and New York to Republican states. So I think over the next four years or so, it's going to be pretty dramatic. So this, this kind of structural astroturfing they've been doing for a long time is going to go away. Which is why you see Hakeem Jeffries sound like an insane person now. Like they understand what's going on and now that we're in the game and we're fighting back, they know what that means for their grip on power, which is why they're so desperate.

[Clay Travis]

You walked in here and told me, hey, among many other things, you're working on Arkansas basketball coach John Calipari was in your office. The commissioners of the Big Ten and the SEC are up here. FIFA World cup is kicking off. I think a lot of them are going to be at the Fox event that is going on tonight to celebrate that SCORE act leading brought up on the Hill. Is Congress going to be able to do anything? I know this has been a never ending question, Bucks, like what in the world's going on with nil? Is Congress going to pass anything? What is the progress? What is the prognosis?

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

I hope so. I'm more optimistic, I think than some because I think that you've got this governance piece which is effectively the SCORE act, right? It's transfer eligibility. The NCAA or some other institution has to have the legal protection, the antitrust exemption effectively to create these rules. Because right now they can't. Which is why you see the chaos. Right? And then the second piece of it, I think this revenue piece is very important. That White House report that came out or recommendations was similar. I was on your show to talk about the blueprint that I had which allowed for the pooling of media rights among college football programs to go in like the NFL does. I think if college football is at 4 billion all in right now, NBA's got half the eyeballs at 8 billion.

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

You know, that's where you're going to get the revenue to save the Olympic sports and save the non revenue sports. So I think that the combination of those two things, that's the path to get 60 votes in the Senate. And so that's what I'm working on.

[Clay Travis]

Buck has got over 100 mile an hour serve. I don't know if he saw this story, but Arkansas, yeah, cut men's and women's tennis. I know it's just south of you in Missouri, but Buck, I don't know how much you're paying attention to this. But it is kind of interesting. A lot of the so called Olympic sports now are getting cut because they cost and they lose money on them. Right. Compared to football and basketball where you have big crowds, Buck, the Olympic sports, I mean your 100 mile an hour serve, I know you're still getting the shoulder loose and you got a little bit of a cold right now, but you got to protect tennis.

[Buck Sexton]

That's. I mean if tennis goes, civilization goes,

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

the country falls apart.

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

How much eligibility you have left hopefully. Yeah.

[Buck Sexton]

Well, I got off for you.

[Clay Travis]

I think he still got off a little controversial.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

Indiana had 25 year olds on there.

[Buck Sexton]

That's true.

[Clay Travis]

I gotta tell you. 40 year old playing football recently.

[Buck Sexton]

The challenge for me, Clay, was the Olympic committee thought that it might be considered cheating if I shave down my hair because of the aerodynamics involved. So I'm wondering if the Swoop is considered a performance enhancing drug. They don't really know how to classify it. So I don't want to cause problems, Clay. So I may not be up for the next Olympics but I'm thinking about

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

it for the good of the country. You're. You're stepping away. I appreciate it. No, I think, look, the model has been. Football has subsidized all these non revenue sports.

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

And if you're losing money on football like Rutgers is, this is just where it's going. And it is a little startling. And I brought it up because the Arkansas AD was in the office too and I asked him about it and it's just. This is an SEC school.

[Clay Travis]

Yeah.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

Like this is not like New Mexico State.

[Clay Travis]

Yeah.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

And I think what's going to happen if we don't step in and give this anti good Congress Do I think Congress should be in the business of all this? That's not really what this is. I was skeptical, but Congress is the only entity that can give that antitrust exemption for them to pool and for them to have these rules. And I think that will ultimately be what saves college sports.

[Clay Travis]

What else should we know? Everybody out there save act. I'll ask you this. Yeah. We get asked about it all the time. Any movement there? And the reason I asked yesterday, we were talking about this and Buck mentioned what they were talking about doing with the Supreme Court in Virginia, which now they've said the Senate Majority leader Buck came out and said that's too far even for us to fire effectively all seven of them. But I think Buck and I both agree that if Democrats take back control of the White House and the Senate, they'll just do away with filibuster once and for all. And so any Republican who's saying, I'm standing on principle and I'm standing on history, if they do that, then Democrats aren't going to care. And so that's what the number one concern, I think, probably, of this audience is. We're standing on principle, and Democrats are just going to stand on power.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

Yeah, it's about. We got. That's why I'm sort of getting at the map game. I mean, we got to understand what this is. My time as AG Actually informed a lot of being here now in Washington because I saw the full complement of what the left was willing to do, nonprofits, all the crazy stuff during COVID all of it. And so I certainly have that kind of mentality to sort of fight back. That's just been my experience. But, yeah, no doubt they'll add states to the Union. They'll pack the Supreme Court. They're not messing around here. And I think that if we want, if we're serious about this and integrity of our elections, the Save America act, we have to get it done, but we have to be willing to spend the time on it, and that's really where it's going to be. It's like, we got to spend the time on it, and that's where the fight is. The other issue that's probably, you know, in the next couple of weeks will be Democrats blocked all that ICE funding. We got everything else funded, but we're coming now in reconciliation, which is a simple majority now to make sure they're funded for multiple years. So we're not gonna play this game with them anymore, these sanctuary jurisdictions. Here's a crazy stat that we saw the other day that we're gonna be part of this reconciliation process. 18,000. 18,000 criminal, illegal aliens have been released from prisons and sanctuary jurisdictions just in one year, just in the last year, because they don't think about that's what a sanctuary jurisdiction is. They will not tell law enforcement when a rapist who's an illegal immigrant's being released. Talk about, like, a moral inversion here. And so we ought to be fighting on this. So you talk about the midterms. Let's talk about that. Like, let's talk about those kinds of issues, too. And I think when you unpack where everybody is, when the ads are flying in September and October, I'm optimistic that we're gonna be able to hold the Senate and hopefully the House.

[Clay Travis]

Thanks for Senator Schmidt.

[Buck Sexton]

I appreciate you.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

Yeah, anytime.

[Buck Sexton]

So much.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

Yep.

[Buck Sexton]

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[Clay Travis]

Laugh, learn.

[Buck Sexton]

Hang with the guys right there when you need them most. Clay and Buck just preset them on the iHeart app.

[Clay Travis]

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[Martha Stewart]

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Get ready for the NFL season with a highly anticipated anticipated 2026 NFL schedule release.

[Clay Travis]

Every rivalry, every rematch and every rookie

[Buck Sexton]

debut with matchups locked and kickoffs confirmed. Be there for every can't miss moment. The full NFL schedule release coming in May. Get all the [e-mail] ScheduleRelease welcome back in here to Clay and Buck and we have a bunch of talk back and important things to get to with you. We also are going to talk in a few minutes here Clay. I want to dive in more to this LA Mayor's race. Yeah, really a really big development and this is a bit like the Mamdani situation in that you're watching destructive leftism expose for all the country to see with the completely inept mayors Mayor's office run by Karen Bass. And now we have somebody who is making a very strong case as to why she should no longer be in that job and using not just social media but particularly AI in social media to get across very powerful imagery and messaging. Talk back here. Keith from Melbourne, Florida, this is B. Hit it. Yeah Clay. You wonder who he's going to caucus with. I mean John Fetterman, you just got done saying he votes 90% democrat and doesn't understand why Republicans like him.

[Clay Travis]

You've been fooled by this guy just

[Buck Sexton]

because he sounds good on Sundays.

[Clay Travis]

I think it's possible that he is aware that he cannot be reelected without Republican support and could say I'm going to potentially consider caucusing with Republicans. Now he may not end up caucusing with Republicans and I don't know whether he's even going to run because Buck, there is a substantial discussion that maybe he doesn't like being a senator, that he's a one term guy. Heck, he may run for president. And that sounds crazy, but when you look at the Democrat party, do they have great candidates? We'll talk about that some when we come back. But I think this LA mayor's race that you're talking about, Buck, is potentially a really intriguing idea of what 2028 may look like as Spencer Pratt is making a lot of having a lot of appeal with just regular moms and dads out there in L A.

[Buck Sexton]

And he's throwing, he's throwing shots at Gavin Newsom specifically as well. So that brings into this more of a national. He understands that this isn't just about L A. It's about getting the eyeballs of the nation on the second biggest cities mayor's race in the country. We will get into that and it'll be a fascinating discussion. Stick around for here. Coming up in just a minute.

[Martha Stewart]

This is Martha Stewart from the Martha Stewart Podcast. Ever wonder how to make hosting look effortless? Here's a secret. Getting ahead of the mess with new Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper. Just lightly wet the counter beforehand so the paper grips and stays in place. Then lay down the Reynolds Kitchen's countertop prep paper so drips and spills stay on the paper, not all over your kitchen counter. You can roll out dough, prep a party spread or cook alongside family. When you're done, cleanup is as simple as lifting the paper and revealing that clean counter underneath. Effortless. You can use it for cooking and baking, prep and even crafting, especially when you need extra working space. Because when the mess is already handled, you can focus on what matters. The food, the people and the moment. It may look effortless, but now you know. It's Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper. Take a tip from me. Wet it, set it, prep it, done. Make it easy. Make it with Reynolds Kitchens countertop prep paper available now in the Reynolds wrap aisle in Walmart, Target, Amazon and Costco.

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[Buck Sexton]

Get ready for the NFL season with the highly anticipated 2026 NFL schedule release.

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