Hour 2 - Illegal Immigration’s Political Impact

Summary

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The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: Hour 2 – Illegal Immigration’s Political Impact
Date: January 27, 2026
Podcast: iHeartPodcasts

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Clay Travis and Buck Sexton examine the political consequences of illegal immigration in the United States, focusing on recent escalations in Minneapolis involving ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) and the broader implications for American politics, public safety, and the future of the Electoral College. They are joined by Ryan Girdusky, who brings a data-driven perspective on how immigration patterns and enforcement are shifting demographics and political power.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Minneapolis ICE Standoff and Far-Left Agitation

(02:43 – 07:04)

• Buck Sexton opens by framing the confrontation in Minneapolis as “the most important news story and the most important fight underway right now in this country” (02:43).
• He cites a Fox News Digital/NY Post investigation that portrays the protests and fatal altercation in Minneapolis as orchestrated by a “coordinated web of encrypted chats, street alerts and tracking of ICE abductors… part of a strategic pattern of organized interference sabotage operations with law enforcement” (04:01).
  • Buck draws parallels to “domestic terror cells,” noting sabotage can be non-lethal but is intended to disrupt ICE operations.
• Quote:

  “They are operating this thing like a decentralized domestic terror cell. The only difference is that they are inviting violence through their sabotage operations instead of directing the violence themselves and attacking ICE agents. So far we worry that that may change.” — Buck Sexton (06:38)

2. Potential Spread of Protest Tactics Nationwide

(07:04 – 08:50)

• Clay Travis expresses concern that if the tactics used in Minneapolis are successful, “their tactics and techniques and methods will just… be adopted in every other blue city that decides that they want to combat everything that ICE is doing” (07:04).
• He argues that, given Minneapolis’s climate and demographics, it’s not a hotspot for illegal immigration, so ICE operations there were naturally likely to wind down, but the real danger is the export of disruption tactics.

3. Narrative Battle and Crime Statistics

(08:50 – 14:24)

• Clay reframes the issue as a “communication battle.” The side that tells the most compelling story to the public wins.
  • He draws an explicit line between effective border enforcement and public safety, citing a 125-year low in murder rates, attributing progress to “the actions of Trump” (09:47).
• Quote:

  “Having a completely secure southern border and kicking out tens of thousands of violent criminals has made the United States safer, and that’s because of the actions of Trump. But how many people do you hear making that argument connect so people can make that connection if they’re not otherwise doing it?” — Clay Travis (09:59)

• Both hosts discuss the lack of reporting on petty crime due to citizen pessimism about police response, but emphasize murder rates as a “hard” indicator of public safety gains.

4. Law Enforcement Policy, Trump, and the Role of ICE

(12:50 – 15:35)

• Buck Sexton claims that when federal agencies focus on violent criminals instead of “hunting down nonviolent J6 protesters like Al Qaeda members,” public safety improves (12:50).
• Clay summarizes the “number one job” of government as “keep people safe,” emphasizing that ICE is central to this mission, and credits the Trump administration’s approach with improved safety statistics.
• Both warn that attempts to demonize ICE in the wake of Minneapolis could mirror the post-George Floyd unrest, potentially unleashing chaos.

5. Competing Narratives in the Media

(19:55 – 22:44)

• Clay critiques mainstream media and shows like “The View” (Whoopi Goldberg in particular) for focusing on the shooting of a protester, but ignoring “blood on the hands of illegal immigrant criminals that have taken innocent people” (21:10).
• Memorable Exchange:

  Clay: “If you’re not willing to have a conversation about the violent crimes that have been perpetrated by illegal immigrants, frankly, I’m not interested in your crocodile tears…” (21:50)

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Data-Driven Insights With Ryan Girdusky

(25:29 – 38:19)

6. Immigration, Birth Data, and Demographic Trends

(25:29 – 27:53)

• Ryan details a sharp decline in births to foreign nationals, especially from countries with high illegal immigrant populations, after escalation of ICE operations and an increase in self-deportations in 2025.
  • Examples:
    • El Salvador: 34% decline
    • China: 24% decline
    • Nigeria, Honduras, and Ecuador: declines of 18–30% (26:34)
• This correlates with stricter enforcement and suggests fewer illegal immigrants staying long-term.
• Whites projected to return to majority of U.S. births for the first time in two years.

7. The 2030 Census and Congressional Apportionment

(27:53 – 29:21)

• Using a Carnegie Mellon forecast, Ryan explains that population growth in red states like Texas and Florida—and a loss in blue states—will shift electoral and congressional power significantly:

  • TX and FL: +4 seats each
  • CA and NY: –4 and –2 seats, respectively
  • If these shifts had applied in 2024, Trump would have had 11 more electoral votes. This will dramatically narrow Democratic paths to the presidency in 2030 and beyond.

• Quote:

  “Legal immigration and illegal immigration both have been what propped up blue states for decades. California, New York, Illinois, they would not have as many seats… if they did not have all the illegal alien population and illegal immigrants. Those two groups, foreign nationals, absolutely prop up Democrats in those big blue states.” — Ryan Girdusky (29:27)

8. Political Ramifications for the Parties

(29:27 – 34:05)

• Blue states are “hemorrhaging” population, with outflows of citizens far outpacing even the influx of illegal immigrants under Biden.
• If deportations and reduced inflows continue, blue states could lose up to 15 seats by 2030, upending the “blue wall” theory in presidential elections.

9. Trump, ICE, and Internal Struggles

(32:20 – 35:53)

• Polls show Americans support deportation of illegal immigrants, though not always the methods.
• Internal conflict in the Trump administration—highlighted by mistakes from advisors like Kristi Noem and sideling of ICE veterans—has damaged public support.
• Democrats now advocate not just defunding ICE, but prosecuting ICE officers. “It’s very, very dangerous to give them that political leverage,” says Ryan (32:56).

10. Congressional Representation and Counting Illegal Immigrants

(35:53 – 37:51)

• Both hosts agree that counting illegal immigrants for congressional apportionment “is flagrantly unconstitutional,” but it continues because of Supreme Court rulings (“all persons” must be counted in the census).

• Ryan estimates illegal immigrants net Democrats “about five or six” House seats, especially in deep blue urban districts, making some seats winnable with far fewer votes compared to red states.

• Quote:

  “Overall, it’s about a half a dozen, primarily in very, very blue districts… These people who run for office, they need to get 200,000 fewer votes to win a House seat than people in Ohio, Alabama, and Tennessee.” — Ryan Girdusky (37:25)

• Many Americans are unaware that illegal immigrants are counted for congressional districts, which both hosts agree is a major under-reported story.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “All of politics is a communication battle. And primarily it’s a battle of story. What story are you telling?... I think Republicans have to tie in the ICE actions with record low crime in America.”
  • Clay Travis (08:50)
• “The number one job of government… keep people safe. If people aren’t safe, nothing else works.”
  • Clay Travis (14:03)
• “Democrats, not only want to now defund ice, but they want to prosecute ICE officers and members of the cabinet… It’s very, very dangerous to give them that political leverage.”
  • Ryan Girdusky (32:56)
• Listener Feedback, Minneapolis:
  “We have a ton of illegals here and it is because of the welfare system. You don’t have that welfare system in Texas… They come for the freebies.”
  — Corey, Minneapolis caller (44:30)

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Listener Calls and Feedback

(43:22 – 45:35)

• John (Charleston, SC): Stresses that protests are fine, but “if you’re operating in a stupid or foolish manner and you get shot, that’s on you. Don’t be stupid.” (43:46)
• Corey (Minneapolis): Contradicts the hosts’ view on Minneapolis’s immigrant population, citing firsthand experience with large numbers of illegal workers, especially attracted by generous welfare (44:30).

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Timestamps to Key Segments

• 02:43 — Buck introduces the Minneapolis ICE situation as a pivotal political issue
• 04:01 — Buck cites details from NY Post/Fox News investigation into far-left protest networks
• 07:04 — Clay warns of protest tactics spreading nationally
• 09:47 — Clay links border security and Trump policies to falling murder rates
• 19:55 — Clay and Buck critique mainstream media’s framing
• 25:29 — Ryan Girdusky breaks down foreign-born birth declines and demographic shifts
• 27:53 — Ryan explains how census changes will affect Electoral College balance
• 32:20 — Ryan analyzes ICE policy, polling, and internal administration drama
• 35:53 — Congressional seat math and implications of counting illegal immigrants
• 43:22 — Listener feedback on the Minneapolis situation and local illegal population

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Conclusion

This hour delivers a critical look at how illegal immigration, enforcement policies, and media narratives intersect to impact crime rates, political power, and public opinion. Clay and Buck argue that maintaining strong ICE operations is essential for safety and for Republican prospects, while Ryan Girdusky demonstrates, with data, that shifting demographics and congressional representation are poised to reshape the American political map. The episode urges listeners to recognize and communicate the links between immigration policy, demographic change, and electoral consequences.

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Transcript

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[Clay Travis]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Buck Sexton]

All right, second hour of play and buck kicks off now. Showdown in Minneapolis. That is still the most important news story and the most important fight underway right now in this country. And it's something that we're going to continue to discuss with all of you and bring you the latest on and we'll talk also to Ryan Graduski at the bottom of this hour about some numbers and this ties into the long term political implications of all this. Why do Democrats care so much? Without all these illegals they lose power. Does anything matter to Democrats more than power? Absolutely not. So they'll do whatever they have to do to keep this whole machinery of open borders and third world invasion going. That is the plan and they are all in on it and we knew that they would be. Now let me bring you this and Clay, this is really interesting because I've seen a number of these analyses that are popping up online. Like I said, we have with with the GWOT audience of this show alone, we could definitely overthrow a medium sized country's, you know, military and everything else. We got a lot of former spec ops advisors, intel guys, by the way, very honored that you choose to listen to us. But I know from our comments and from people coming up to me, people emailing us and all the rest that we got a lot of you who know the world of asymmetrical warfare, no propaganda operations, and know decentralized networks and how they operate for the purposes of terrorist groups and how they operate for insurgents. And that's really interesting. You have this piece up in the New York Post today and it gets into exactly some of that stuff which I think people need to know more about. That's why I'm calling the sabotage operations. Military terminology, remember? Sabotage operations not necessarily lethal. Right. Sabotage operation a lot of times is not going to be. It's going to be something. Now it can be, but it's going to be something where they're, you know, maybe you're going to go after the, you know, the gasoline supply or the communications or whatever it may be of an opponent. And that's what's going on here with Immigration Customs Enforcement. This New York border, I'm sorry, this New York Post piece goes into the following Clay quote, the skirmish that led to Saturday's fatal shooting of an agitator by Border Patrol agents in Minneapolis and the Response that followed were driven by a complex network of far left organizations with a wide range of causes. This is actually a Fox News piece by the way. Repo published on New York Post by Azra no Money Fox News Digital investigation. A coordinated web of encrypted chats, street alerts and tracking of ICE abductors in a sophisticated database reviewed by Fox News Digital shows that agitators were already mobilized at the scene where 37 year old Alex Pretty was killed minutes before any shots were fired. ICE and Border patrol agents were there to arrest an illegal immigrant criminal. Pretty and others were there outside a donut shop to meet them as part of a strategic pattern of organized interference sabotage operations with law enforcement. Over the following hours, a national network of socialist, communist and Marxist Leninist cells in the United States leveraged the tragic fatality into a nationwide protest operation. This level of engineered chaos is unique to Minneapolis though it is the direct consequence of far left agitators working with local authorities. According to JD Vance, encrypted signal Clay I go on and on. They are operating this thing like a decentralized domestic terror cell. The only difference is that they are inviting violence through their sabotage operations instead of directing the violence themselves and attacking ICE agents. So far we worry that that may change.

[Clay Travis]

Well, my concern is if they get what they want in Minneapolis, their tactics and techniques and methods will just.

[Buck Sexton]

Speaker 2 We call them tactics, techniques and procedures. There's the terminology.

[Clay Travis]

There you go, there you go. That's off the top of my head. I'm not the expert, but that makes sense on the language that they would adopt this in every other blue city that decides that they want to combat everything that ICE is doing. So this is one of the reasons that I think there has to be some form of, of resolution that doesn't look like a complete withdrawal that can be claimed as victory by these individuals. Now to be fair, I can't imagine there's that many illegals in the grand scheme of things in Minneapolis compared to places like California, Texas and Florida. So I do think that this was naturally going to wind down in Minneapolis at some point in time just because the target rich environments of illegal immigration. I would not think Minneapolis if I were guessing Buck, I wouldn't think Minneapolis is In the top 50 most illegal immigrant populations in the United States. And you might say, why would you say that Clay? I don't think most illegal immigrants who tend as a general rule to come from warmer climates are going to go to Minneapolis and say I want to be in minus 20 weather for entire months at a time, basically in the winter. Right. So most illegal immigrant populations, in my opinion, are going to be in California, Texas and Florida for the same reason that a lot of y' all are in California, Texas and Florida, because the weather's better. All right. It's also the economies are growing fast, certainly in Texas.

[Buck Sexton]

They're also the biggest states.

[Clay Travis]

There are more jobs, population is larger. That's what I would anticipate. So my point on this is ICE pulling out of Minneapolis. They could have done most of the work in Minneapolis, which is a relatively small population. Again, I think both at large, relatively small population, but also I would think a relatively small population of overall illegal immigrants. So I think it would be natural that they would be winding down whatever work they are going to do there in the days and, and weeks ahead. So that's a natural outgrowth. My concern is what Buck just laid out, which is that they're going to take the methods that they learned in Minneapolis and apply them elsewhere. Second part of what you're talking about, Buck, communication. This is a communication battle. Now, all of politics is a communication battle. And primarily it's a battle of story. What story are you telling? And is your story more compelling? Does it land in a way better than your opponent's story? I think we're using way too much language associated with, with the way that they are telling their story and on the left. And I think this has to be. You heard me in the first hour. I think the president, I think the White House, I think Republicans at large have to tie in the ICE actions with record low crime in America. Do you see the headline from the New York Times where they were? I think Eric Trump shared it, but the New York Times was saying, we don't know why crime has suddenly fallen to 125 year low. Experts are unsure. Let me give you one idea that I'm pretty confident in. Having a completely secure southern border and kicking out tens of thousands of violent criminals has made the United States safer, and that's because of the actions of Trump. But how many people do you hear making that argument connect so people can make that connection if they're not otherwise doing it? Wait a minute. I want my community to be safe. I want my state to be safe. I want my country to be safe. That's why I was hammering last week. 125 year low in murders. And Buck and I have been saying this for five years with all of you. You can say, well, why focus on murder? Because, you know, if somebody got murdered right One of the downsides of, of high crime is when Buck's scooter got stolen in New York City.

[Buck Sexton]

I know no one cares.

[Clay Travis]

In peace, rest in scooter. But you didn't report it because it wasn't worth your time to get the cops involved searching for your scooter. Now, my wife got a bike stolen.

[Buck Sexton]

From, like, the 19th Precinct. You're like, yeah, kid, we got our best people on it. Sure, we'll get back to you on that scooter that was stolen.

[Clay Travis]

My wife was so mad when we lived in downtown Nashville. She had a great bike. She would bike to school. Sometimes they stole her bike. Somebody did cut the chain right out of where we were living in downtown Nashville. She was furious about it. I don't think we reported it because the cops wouldn't have done anything about it. So my point on murder is sometimes you look at crimes and petty crimes don't get reported because you're so frustrated. They're so common, and you know nothing's going to get done with it. I bet some of you out there work in stores and somebody comes in and they steal something out of your store, and you're like, do I want to spend an hour trying to deal with the cops on this when I know they're not going to do anything once the individual's gotten away? My point on this is murders. We tend to know whether they happen or not. So the fact that we're at 125 year low in murders is an incredible credit to Trump. You have to tie it in with ice. It's all part and parcel of the reason why this has occurred. If you want security, we got to get bad guys out.

[Buck Sexton]

I also think, Clay, the surge in just federal law enforcement, I mean, I can tell you from the FBI side as well as other federal agencies, they decided. It's amazing what you can accomplish when instead of hunting down nonviolent J6 protesters like Al Qaeda members, you actually go after murderers, rapists, cartel, hitmen, you know, child abuser, all these things. When the federal law enforcement agencies are going after people that are a danger to the public and who prey on their fellow human beings. Good things happen for public safety. It's kind of amazing, isn't it, when cops feel like you have their back to protect good people and to punish the lawbreakers, there's less law breaking. This is. This is a shock. I know, to all of the, you know, all of the. The women you're seeing on Facebook who live in safe suburbs, who are like.

[Clay Travis]

What'S Going on with isis, the Gestapo.

[Buck Sexton]

But it turns out it's true. The very straightforward and common sense law enforcement approach of the Trump administration works. What a shock, Clay. And here we are.

[Clay Travis]

I know, but this is important, right? Like, I would argue for everybody out there if you said, Clay, what is the number one job of the government in the. In the United States, like, in our physical country? Keep people safe. Like, I would argue that is the number one goal. Because if people aren't safe, nothing else works.

[Buck Sexton]

Right.

[Clay Travis]

Now, you can subdivide that and break down what do we mean by safety. There's a bunch of different angles associated with it. But on the most important job, I would argue that the federal government could have and that your local and state government could have, because they all work in concert. I would argue it's keep us safe, keep us from getting married, murdered. I hope you get married. Keep us safe, keep us from getting murdered, keep the streets safe in all of our communities. Never in the life of anyone listening right now has there ever been a time when there was a lower murder rate in this country. That's an incredible accomplishment of Trump 1.0. ICE is intimately involved in that success story, and that is why we have to do it. And, Buck, you and I talked about this a couple weeks ago. It's not coincidental that Minneapolis and the BLM protest in the wake of George Floyd led to the largest increase in murders we have ever seen in any of our lives. That's FBI data. They're trying to create the same kind of situation with ice, where they want people to rise up and they want to create chaos in the streets again. We cannot allow it.

[Buck Sexton]

Well said. You should have a radio show. That was good.

[Clay Travis]

Thank you.

[Buck Sexton]

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[Clay Travis]

Want to be in the know when you're on the go the Team 47 podcast Trump highlights from the week, Sundays at noon Eastern in the Clay and Buck podcast feed. Find it on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Commercial Announcer]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member finra SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures [e-mail] disclosures do you actually know Ball well?

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[Clay Travis]

Welcome back in Clay Travis, BUCK SEXTON SHOW we appreciate all of you hanging out with us. We're talking about communication and how you win the battle in the larger marketplace and how the stories you tell matter a great deal. Understand what you're up against, so let's pretend that you are one of the morons who sits around and gets your news from the View. This is what you would have heard from Whoopi Goldberg. This is how you would have been experiencing this story. It's important to understand what stories are being told by people who don't have, in our opinion, the best interest in the country at heart. Here is cut eight, straight up murder. This is the second one. The second murder of an American citizen. You haven't gotten rid of the Bill of Rights yet, so people don't know that we're not supposed to go out and do this. So I don't understand what you're investigating. You see it, you're not blind. And if you don't see it, it's willful because you're not looking. You can't sit by this, Krissy. Norm. You can't justify this. Mr. Bovino. You can't justify this. You can't justify either one.

[Commercial Announcer]

No.

[Clay Travis]

And we all see it, and we see you for what you are. You all have blood on your hands. Okay, so, Buck, I think again, the battle here that is so significant is there is blood on the hands of people. I think it's actually Tim Walls, and I actually think it is Mayor Fry. But really, what you're asking is, are you not concerned at all about the blood on the hands of illegal immigrant criminals that have taken innocent people? And everybody wants to talk about Alex Preddy being a nurse. Lake and Riley didn't ever get the opportunity to be a nurse because she was killed by an illegal immigrant that should have never been.

[Buck Sexton]

She was raped and raped and murdered.

[Clay Travis]

Yes. Should have never been in the country. That person had already been arrested. That person had been released from custody. If you're not willing to have a conversation about the violent crimes that have been perpetrated by illegal immigrants, frankly, I'm not interested in your crocodile tears over Alex Preddy. If you haven't mentioned the crimes that are being perpetrated by illegal immigrants against innocent Americans, then I don't think you're having a good faith discussion. I wish we've said this for a long time. Nobody wants everybody to live longer. More than this show, we wish that no one ever died. No one hates death more than us. Right? But if you're not willing to have a conversation about the crimes perpetrated by illegal immigrants violently on innocent people here, then I'm not willing to just accept that suddenly this violent act is the where you have to draw the line.

[Buck Sexton]

Yes, we are.

[Ryan Graduski]

We are.

[Buck Sexton]

We are anti murder on this show. Sometimes people got to get got though. Like I mean, light them up. Light them up. Lois lets us all know that you know, like the bad guys got. Light them up, Linda. Light them up, Linda. My bad. Light them up, Linda. The bad guy's got to get got. You know, so that you got to remember the terrorists and the so. But it's innocent people that we don't want to be harmed here. And we do not advocate for violence unless it is taking out bad terrorists or people who are hurting people to be. To be fair. So we're against murder, killing. Sometimes you gotta. Sometimes you gotta take out bad guys. Light em up. Linda has a point on that. All right, here's a riddle. What precious commodity has been the envy of men, the source of economies for thousands of years, and the single most stabilizing currency of countries around the world? It's one of the same gold. Today, gold is as easy to purchase and install in your 401k as a mutual fund or ETF. Gold should be one part of a long term savings plan that helps your retirement accounts grow with real stability. You likely know the facts, but just in case, the value of gold has grown substantially this past year. It's up over 80% in the last year. And 700% in the last 20 years. The trend is your friend. Plenty of reasons why the gold thesis remains very, very strong. It's your turn to get some gold until February 1st. That's this Sunday. You're a first time gold buyer. Birch Gold Group is offering a rebate of $10,000 on qualifying purchases. To claim eligibility and start that process, just text my name Buck to 9898 98. I just bought some more gold from Birch Gold Group. You can to text Buck to 98-98-98 today. Welcome back into Clay and Buck, our brilliant numbers nerd. We say that with tremendous affection. Ryan Graduski is blowing up the Internet with insights based on the data once again. He joins us now. He is the host of the fabulous podcast it is a Numbers Game on the Clay and Buck Podcast Network. He's also got a great sub stack where he I'm a subscriber where he takes all this stuff and runs it through the numbers machinery. Ryan, I want to start with this one. I thought it's really interesting as we're talking ICE is the big issue now. We're going to focus in on this, Minneapolis, all of it. And I want your general takes on some of this too because you understand the political dynamics really well. But your piece here, when you crunch the numbers, foreign born births cratered in October when ICE operations and self deportations increase. Give us, walk us through some of these numbers and why this is significant and what you see going on here.

[Ryan Graduski]

Right. So I always say that birth data is a lagging indicator of overall immigration data. If you're an illegal alien and you're seven months pregnant and Trump just got sworn in, you're not going to self deport. You're going to hold out until you give birth to the baby who will be a citizen. If you're not pregnant when Trump swears in, you may be more inclined to sit there and self deport. I got its massive funding haul in July of 2025. So they really started escalating in August and from August to October, which I narrate through the piece is you see a increasing decline among births by foreign born nationals in the United States, especially foreign born nationals with large illegal alien populations. So for instance, El Salvador had a 34% decline in the month of October 2024. There were 2,700 El Salvadorian women who gave birth in America. That number declined to 1700 in October 2025, a very large fall, larger than the overall natural amount if people weren't leaving. Right. Among Chinese Nationals that dropped to 24% from October to October was a 24% drop. Among other big groups of large illegal island populations, Nicaraguans 18%, Nigerians 27%, Hondurans 20%, Ecuadorians 30%. These are massive declines in the number of foreign born women having children in America which would indicate they are likely not having them is because those who would may be self deporting or being obtained and deported, forced deportation or planning to self deport so they were not going to sit there and stay here. All those things. Huge, huge decline. 2025 looks like according to the early CDC data up to October, from January to October that whites are majority of births in the United States again for the first time in two years. Now they decline substantially as Hispanics increase substantially under the Joe Biden administration because all those illegal populations coming in as foreign born births are declining. Also a lot of minority births are declining. White births have declined, but not at the same rate as everybody. El bounces them back up into the majority as of October. It will likely be the majority gain come January unless things really take a turn in the data that we don't know yet. I highly doubt that's going to happen in the last two months of the year. But it's very interesting how birth data kind of gives indicators to immigration data.

[Clay Travis]

Ryan Garduski with us now. We encourage you to go subscribe to the Clay and Buck podcast network of which he is a great part and a lot of you are listening to his show. Okay. Looking at the census apportionment forecast, which I know you've been focused on as well, and this is going to be kind of detailed and so I understand if you're listening. It's hard to visualize, but let me kind of give you a sense. This is the Carnegie Mellon University forecast that Texas will gain four seats, Florida four seats, then Idaho, Utah, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina would each gain one seat. States losing seats, California, New York, California would lose four, New York two, Illinois two. Then Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Wisconsin, Rhode island, all would lose one each. Okay. The net outcome of that is that Trump 2024 would have won 11 more electoral votes. And if you're out there right now, it means the Kamala Harris path to win. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and one of the seats in Omaha that split Nebraska seat would no longer exist. Isn't this a huge part of what the fight is right now that Democrats are staring the 2030 census in the face and recognizing that this could be cataclysmic to their existing Electoral College pathways to the presidency.

[Ryan Graduski]

It's exactly that. Legal immigration and illegal immigration both have been what propped up blue states for decades. California, New York, Illinois, they would not have as many seats in 2020 and in 2016 if they did not have all the illegal alien population and illegal immigrants. Those two groups, foreign nationals, absolutely prop up Democrats in those big blue states. Here's a fascinating number. California today, according to the census, has 200,000 fewer people living in it than it did in 2020. Compare that to Florida has 2 million more people than it did in 2020. That's with all those people, because remember, these are mostly Joe Biden numbers. Even with Joe Biden's surge of illegality, the turn against California by American citizens is tremendous. And if you look overall from state to state to state, the populations of these big blue states with these absolute failed left wing governments, which have not worked and have not managed to sit there and grow the population, increase opportunity, lower taxes, you name it, have caused a lot of them to sit there and run and try to get out of these states as fast as humanly possible. And a lot of that will mandate in the 2030 census and the 2030 reapportionment. I'll say this, if this continues now, this is, by the way, without the deportations, without the self deportations, without the limits of immigration. If those hit, those numbers could easily surge to 13, 14, 15, net loss out of Democrat states, horrendous for Democrats. And even more so, it means that the big blue wall doesn't matter for electoral politics. It means that a vice president, J.D. man's running for president for his reelection. Rather in 2032, all he would need to do would capture Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and you win the presidency. Pennsylvania doesn't matter. It doesn't matter if you lose Georgia, but it doesn't matter overall. Michigan doesn't matter. Wisconsin doesn't matter. Even the hard to reach states, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, it doesn't matter. All of that at that point is just gravy. And it means a decade of Democrats really having to put all their weight and all their money in either Georgia, Arizona or North Carolina, because without those three states, they can't win the presidency.

[Buck Sexton]

Ryan, what is your sense right now as it feels like decisions are still very much being made about what the administration's going to do in Minneapolis in the face of this resistance, these sabotage operations, how is Trump worried about these numbers to the point where he might change course? Is it important to stay the course or else the base will abandon him. Well, not entirely, but you know, how do you assess based on the numbers, the polling, what's going on in Minneapolis and what the administration needs to do?

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, I mean, if you look at the New York Times polling, the polling that just came out from Siena College, it's very consistent. Americans want, Americans think. And this is also the YouGov poll. Americans believe illegal immigration in the United States is a big problem and they overall approve of Trump's deportation of illegal aliens. That was the New York Times Siena poll. They don't like how it's being conducted. Back in October, Fox News released the story that Tristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski hurt very special advisor gave basically sidelined Tom Holman from doing deportations. Tom Holman has 30 plus year career doing this and understands what it's like out on the field. I think sidelining Tom Holman was a big, big mistake because support for ICE was still well above water when Homan was doing was in charge. You know, they've been trying to get these numbers up, which is very, very important. But the fear of, of mass deportation has caused more self deportation than actual mass deportation has. Trump's gotten higher numbers, certainly higher numbers than the first term, highest number since Obama's first year in office. However, the damage that they're doing right now to the, to ICE as an institution is alarming. And Democrats not only want to now defund ice, but they want to price prosecute ICE officers and members of the cabinet and the administration who are in charge of ice. It's very, very dangerous to give them that political leverage. I think Kristi Noem's press conference was a horror show and I think that she did so much damage in the aftermath of this shooting that that was actually worse than the shooting itself.

[Clay Travis]

Ryan? Yeah, that's a strong take. We'll get into some of the, some of the fallout of the stories.

[Buck Sexton]

Again, I don't want to. Can you just hold your question? I just want to follow up on this. Why is Trump circling the wagons then and protecting a member of the administration? Because I have to. What you said was really a catastrophic blunder. Is it just because Trump doesn't ever want to at this point give the media what they want when they're calling for a scalp? I mean, to me, yeah, I mean.

[Ryan Graduski]

If you look at the Mike Waltz story, remember Mike Waltz story from earlier in the administration, how he had the signal chat, invited the Atlantic reporter in it, he wasn't fired immediately. It actually bought him time probably even though that Trump was looking to get rid of him, according to many internal reports, is that Trump wanted to get rid of him. He realized it was a mistake nominating him for this position. And then when the story leaked, it actually saved him time because he didn't want to admit that the story was an eyesore. I think a lot of people have been disappointed with Kristine for quite some time. I think that she has made a lot of mistakes and a lot of enemies inside the administration. I think Corey Lewandowski being as involved as he has been has been a big problem for a lot of people in the admin. I know people have complained on the higher up saying Cory's been a very, very big decision maker and making a lot of poor judgments. And I know that Tom Holman has been sidelined for the most part, which is why Trump decided to send Tom Holman in. But in response to the shooting, which was a series of very bad judgments from a lot of people, her calling him a domestic terrorist really did tremendous damage to people who are in the middle. You can't afford to lose normies on immigration. It is the thing that got Trump elected in 16 and 24. And Kristi Noems comments, which you could see in your own blue eye, clear eyes, that he was not pointing a gun at any ICE officers, makes people sit there and normies sit there and say, well, these people are all liars. We can't trust any of these things.

[Clay Travis]

Last question for you, Ryan. I think that was all well said based on what the data is showing. I think the biggest story that is not getting enough attention. We talked about the shift in 2030 population, how the electoral college going to be set up differently. The fact that illegal immigrants are counted for congressional representation is to me flagrantly unconstitutional. But it's also a major incentive for these people to not be removed and to explain why Democrats are acting out as they are. With that being said, have you seen data and I know I've asked you this before, but it's such an under discussed story that I think we need to bring it up constantly. How much are Democrats benefiting in terms of raw numbers of congressional seats, seats based on illegal immigrant populations being counted for purposes of congressional seat apportionment.

[Ryan Graduski]

Right. It's. It. Well, it depends on. I mean it's a very difficult thing, right, because you have a district like Media Vasquez in Brooklyn which is overwhelmingly illegal immigrants, which is, I mean, she sits there and says bring illegals to my district or I'm going to lose it. She has said things like that in public. Right. So it's very hard to sit there and say, oh, there would be an extra House seat upstate instead, or Long island instead of in Brooklyn. Overall, they say about five or six. If you kind of move the numbers around, those were in mind. That was Pew Research. California would have lost, you know, would have never gained. It's not just a matter of what they would have lost in 2020, what they would have never gained in 2010 and in 2000. This illegal alien population. Overall, it's about a half a dozen, primarily, though, in very, very blue districts. Maxine Waters, Nidia Vasquez. These people who run for office, they need to get 200,000 fewer votes to win a House seat than people in Ohio, Alabama, and Tennessee.

[Clay Travis]

I think that's super interesting. What percentage of Americans do you think know that illegal immigrants are counted for purposes of congressional seats? Because I think it's like 15 or 20%. I just don't think most Americans know.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, the same percentage that can name all nine support members of the Supreme Court. It's very low. I mean, it's just. I don't believe that many Americans know this whatsoever. And it is worth getting angry about. The Supreme Court has ruled that it's all persons. And I. You'd have to change the Constitution or try to fight it on a different. On a different note. But they've sat there and said you can count them on all persons. I mean, you could also change the census where you could ask their citizenship status and if they're illegally in the country, and that may make them not want to answer the census, which would also decrease their numbers.

[Clay Travis]

Good stuff as always, Ryan. Go check it out. Numbers game. It's a part of the Clay and Buck podcast network. He does great work there. The podcast network overall growing fast, thanks to you guys. Ryan, appreciate the time.

[Ryan Graduski]

Thank you.

[Clay Travis]

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Days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire AI enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent, secure any agent. Okta secures AI welcome back in Clay.

[Clay Travis]

Travis, Buck Sexton show. We appreciate all of you hanging out with us. We got a bunch of people who want to wait in. I'll get to some of your calls here in a moment but let's get to some of these talkbacks quickly here. John in Charleston, South Carolina, fabulous city has a take on the shooting in Minneapolis. CC Hey Buck, look, I'm a firm.

[Buck Sexton]

Supporter in the first amendment and the second amendment. I believe that you should be able to protest or a carry a guy. But if you are operating in a stupid or foolish manner to be nice and you get shot during that, then that's on you. Don't be stupid. But apparently exercising your right rights doesn't come with common sense requirements unfortunately.

[Clay Travis]

So that is John in Charleston again reports that the individual shot had previously been tackled by ICE agents when he was obstructing with them. Giving you a little bit of color in his previous existence. Corey In Minneapolis News Talk 11:30 up there has a take.

[Ryan Graduski]

Dd Good afternoon, gentlemen. I couldn't disagree more on the illegals in Minneapolis. I live in Minneapolis. I work construction. We have a ton of illegals here and it is because of the welfare system. You don't have that welfare system in Texas. You don't.

[Clay Travis]

And I've lived there.

[Ryan Graduski]

You don't have it in Wisconsin.

[Clay Travis]

You don't have it in Tennessee. You don't have it in Florida.

[Ryan Graduski]

You have it in Minnesota. They come for the freebies.

[Clay Travis]

There's some truth to that, Buck, but there are more illegals in all the states he just mentioned.

[Buck Sexton]

You're talking raw numbers. Maybe per capita. I don't know, by the way, but per capita, Minnesota might be kind of high. But that's a guess, Clay. I'd have to check the numbers E to finish.

[Clay Travis]

Really quick to take us into the break. Hey, Clay.

[Buck Sexton]

But Keith from Maryland here, also law enforcement. On cases of bicycle thefts, we do work them. That's one bicycle that to have a couple years ago.

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[Buck Sexton]

Bike, recover it for him. Probably one of the best personally rewarding cases I've ever had. We do look for stolen bicycles.

[Clay Travis]

Thanks for everything. Good for him. That's a positive story. To finish the hour, have you ever.

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[Buck Sexton]

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