The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: Hour 2 – Trump-Like Numbers Needed
Date: October 30, 2025
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts

Episode Overview

This hour centers on the latest developments in key political races in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia as the hosts are joined by political analyst Ryan Gardusky (“It’s a Numbers Game” podcast). The discussions provides granular, data-driven insights into voting trends, early turnout, shifting demographics, and how Republicans can hope for “Trump-like numbers” to flip expectations. The episode also delves into the ongoing federal government shutdown, its consequences, and the evolving blame game between Democrats and Republicans.

The hosts maintain their hallmark blend of sharp political analysis, on-the-ground data, and irreverent banter, giving listeners tools to make sense of the fast-approaching elections.

Main Segments and Key Discussion Points

1. Deep Dive with Ryan Gardusky: Election Prognosis in Three States

[04:16 – 17:53]

New York City Mayor's Race

• Contenders: Mamdani (Democratic Socialist – presumed favorite), Cuomo (centrist), Curtis Sliwa (Republican/Conservative).
• Polling Trends: Mandani maintains a consistent ~15-point lead. Only one poll has him cracking a majority.
• Voter Demographics: Early electorate is skewing older and “slightly blacker,” with boroughs like Staten Island and Queens seeing higher turnout, but the Bronx (strong for Cuomo) is lagging badly.
  • Quote (Ryan Gardusky, 04:54):
    “There are more people between the ages of 70 to 75 voting than people between the ages of 18 to 24... When the voting began, voters under 40 were just 28%... now they’re up to 35%.”
• Republican Challenge: Only 5% of registered NYC Republicans have voted early versus 8% of Democrats.
  • Quote (Gardusky, 06:02):
    “Republicans just really got to start picking up and they got a break for Cuomo for him to have a chance. And more seniors have to show up... it still looks like a Mandani victory. There is a small path for Cuomo.”
• Key Concern: Whether Mandani is capped (a “ceiling”) due to being “too far left,” which would have implications for other progressives like AOC.

The Split Vote Scenario

• [07:38] Clay Travis presses Ryan on whether opposition votes will split between Cuomo and Sliwa, denying Mandani an outright majority.
  • Quote (Ryan, 08:07):
    “In all the polls, Mandani has only gotten a majority in one poll... it’s a real question of is there a ceiling for these socialist candidates... If he gets over a million votes, it shows the ceiling isn’t there.”

New Jersey: Can Republicans Pull an Upset?

• Candidate: Jack Ciattarelli (Republican)
• Optimism Fueled By: Record-high Republican registration, support from Orthodox Jewish voters, and significant Latino vote gains for the GOP in recent cycles.
• Challenges:
  • Democrats lead by 7,300 votes in early, in-person ballots.
  • Democrats have a massive 221,000-vote mail-in ballot lead.
  • Urgency: 72,000 Republicans have received but not returned their mail-in ballots.
  • Quote (Gardusky, 10:25):
    “There are 72,000 votes for Jack Ciattarelli on people’s kitchen tables and they haven’t returned those ballots yet. That’s a lot of catching up to do to chase those ballots and make sure they are returned.”
• Shift Among Minority Voters: Notably, Trump saw a large uptick among Hispanics and nonwhite voters in New Jersey (Trump got 39% of Hispanic-majority precincts in 2024, up from 26%).
  • Quote (Gardusky, 12:14):
    “Cittarelli needs to see a similar bump because Cittarelli does better than Trump in the white suburbs. He needs to get Trump-like numbers among the Hispanic areas.”

Virginia Statewide Races

• Top Republican Hope: Jason Miyares (AG candidate), who has led in the majority of polls.
• Complications: VA doesn’t register voters by party, making turnout estimation tricky.
  • Miyares leads most polls by 4 points.
  • Abigail Spanberger (Democrat) has an 8-9 point polling lead for governor.
• Down-ballot Impact: Republican Lieutenant Gov. candidate John Reid only down 4 points, which may indicate underlying GOP strength.
• Geographic Turnout: Democrats doing well in Richmond (high turnout), GOP must boost numbers in southwestern (coal country) Virginia and swingy Virginia Beach.
  • Quote (Gardusky, 14:56):
    “Southwest Virginia, which loves Donald Trump... they are being the lagging indicator in this entire election. Fairfax doesn’t have great turnout so far. Neither does Virginia Beach...”

Win Probabilities Recap

[15:59 – 17:53]

• NYC: Mandani 90% favored, Cuomo has slim path.

• NJ: Ciattarelli 40% chance; needs Republicans and Hispanics to show up.

• Virginia: Miyares 55% chance; depends on down-ballot strength and turnout—especially if GOP LG candidate keeps margin close.

• Spanberger (VA Gov.): “95% chance” of winning.

• Quote (Gardusky, 16:17):
  “Chitterelli [NJ] has a lot of things looking good in his direction. He just needs them all to break... The narrative right now across the country is this: I don’t know if Republicans are waiting for election day, but they have not shown up in the numbers they need to in these early votes.”

2. The Government Shutdown: Who Gets the Blame as Pain Hits?

[25:47 – 37:16]

Shutdown Effects & Political Calculations

• Pain Points Identified:
  • Air traffic controllers have missed paychecks; some may call in sick, risking travel chaos.
  • SNAP/food stamp benefits run out soon—potentially affecting 42 million Americans.
• Partisan Finger-Pointing: Democrats now fracturing, some voting with GOP to reopen the government. Hosts argue it’s clearly a Democrat-initiated shutdown, but the media narrative is unstable.
  • Quote (Buck, 28:29):
    “You’ve had Ossoff and Warnock [Democrats]... they have voted with Republicans... so they’re getting pretty close to the 60 threshold here, Clay. I don’t think Republicans can blink on this one. This has turned into a real game of chicken.”
• On Federal Workers: Discussion on the reality that most furloughed workers (essential or not) will get back pay. Raises questions on the necessity of certain federal jobs.
  • Quote (Clay, 29:23):
    “Several of her peers opted not to work and to take a fully paid furlough... they just are treating this as a one-month paid vacation because they know they’re going to eventually get back pay.”

Political Fallout and Next Steps

• Travel and Services as Pressure Points: The real crisis will come when travel chaos erupts due to absent air traffic controllers and TSA agents.
  • Quote (Buck, 32:56):
    “If at some of the major airports... you have to wait three or four hours because of air traffic control delays or maybe your flight even just gets canceled outright... when you get to the airport or you can’t get through TSA... people get ticked off... and they start calling congressional switchboards.”
• Prediction: Democrats will likely try to hold out until after Election Day, after which a deal will be found.
  • Quote (Buck, 33:20):
    “My sense right now is the Democrats are just waiting till after the election. I think Democrats are going to cave, but they’re going to cave after Election Day.”

3. Media Narrative and Public Opinion: Who’s Responsible for the Shutdown?

[43:30 – 46:44]

• Highlight: Harry Enten (CNN) polling clip
  • Enten notes that voters are starting to blame Democrats for the shutdown; the media narrative is shifting as even CNN acknowledges Democratic responsibility.
    • Quote (Clay, 44:16):
      “When CNN’s got their polling and they’re coming on and saying, actually now voters are starting to blame Democrats in a substantial way... this overall shutdown is benefiting... the Republican Party.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Mandani’s Odds (NYC) [08:07]:
  “No one really expects him to get a majority... If he gets over a million votes, it really shows the ceiling isn’t there.” – Ryan Gardusky
• On NJ GOP Ballots (10:25):
  “There are 72,000 votes for Jack Ciattarelli on people’s kitchen tables and they haven’t returned those ballots yet.” – Ryan Gardusky
• On Early Republican Turnout (16:17):
  “The narrative right now across the country is this: I don’t know if Republicans are waiting for election day, but they have not shown up in the numbers they need to in these early votes.” – Ryan Gardusky
• On Furloughed Federal Workers (29:23):
  “Several of her peers opted not to work and to take a fully paid furlough... they just are treating this as a one-month paid vacation.” – Clay Travis
• Shutdown is Political Chicken (28:29):
  “I don’t think Republicans can blink on this one. This has turned into a real game of chicken.” – Buck Sexton

Episode Timeline

| Segment | Timestamps | |-------------------------------------------------|---------------------| | Ads, show intro/prelude | 00:00 – 04:15 | | Election analysis w/ Ryan Gardusky | 04:16 – 17:53 | | Sponsor/Ad break | 17:54 – 23:35 | | Shutdown and federal workers discussion | 25:47 – 37:16 | | Political/media narrative & public polling | 43:30 – 46:44 |

Tone and Language

As always, Clay and Buck mix data-heavy insights with breezy, sometimes irreverent banter (e.g., joking about costume parties and government workers’ “paid vacations”), alongside sharp skepticism of mainstream media narratives and Democratic messaging.

Closing Notes

This episode is essential listening for anyone tracking the 2025 election cycle, especially in states seen as bellwethers for GOP resurgence. Ryan Gardusky’s granular, numbers-based analysis stands out, and the discussion on the government shutdown pressures is directly relevant for federal workers and all politically engaged Americans. The overarching theme is that, for Republican hopes, turnout on Election Day—and mobilizing the elusive “Trump-like” voter base—is crucial to upending Democratic leads that may appear formidable in early voting.

For further detail and granular election analysis, check out “It’s a Numbers Game with Ryan Gardusky” on the Clay and Buck Podcast Network.