Hour 2 - Trump-Like Numbers Needed

Summary

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: Hour 2 – Trump-Like Numbers Needed
Date: October 30, 2025
Podcast Network: iHeartPodcasts

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Episode Overview

This hour centers on the latest developments in key political races in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia as the hosts are joined by political analyst Ryan Gardusky (“It’s a Numbers Game” podcast). The discussions provides granular, data-driven insights into voting trends, early turnout, shifting demographics, and how Republicans can hope for “Trump-like numbers” to flip expectations. The episode also delves into the ongoing federal government shutdown, its consequences, and the evolving blame game between Democrats and Republicans.

The hosts maintain their hallmark blend of sharp political analysis, on-the-ground data, and irreverent banter, giving listeners tools to make sense of the fast-approaching elections.

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Main Segments and Key Discussion Points

1. Deep Dive with Ryan Gardusky: Election Prognosis in Three States

[04:16 – 17:53]

New York City Mayor's Race

• Contenders: Mamdani (Democratic Socialist – presumed favorite), Cuomo (centrist), Curtis Sliwa (Republican/Conservative).
• Polling Trends: Mandani maintains a consistent ~15-point lead. Only one poll has him cracking a majority.
• Voter Demographics: Early electorate is skewing older and “slightly blacker,” with boroughs like Staten Island and Queens seeing higher turnout, but the Bronx (strong for Cuomo) is lagging badly.
  • Quote (Ryan Gardusky, 04:54):
    “There are more people between the ages of 70 to 75 voting than people between the ages of 18 to 24... When the voting began, voters under 40 were just 28%... now they’re up to 35%.”
• Republican Challenge: Only 5% of registered NYC Republicans have voted early versus 8% of Democrats.
  • Quote (Gardusky, 06:02):
    “Republicans just really got to start picking up and they got a break for Cuomo for him to have a chance. And more seniors have to show up... it still looks like a Mandani victory. There is a small path for Cuomo.”
• Key Concern: Whether Mandani is capped (a “ceiling”) due to being “too far left,” which would have implications for other progressives like AOC.

The Split Vote Scenario

• [07:38] Clay Travis presses Ryan on whether opposition votes will split between Cuomo and Sliwa, denying Mandani an outright majority.
  • Quote (Ryan, 08:07):
    “In all the polls, Mandani has only gotten a majority in one poll... it’s a real question of is there a ceiling for these socialist candidates... If he gets over a million votes, it shows the ceiling isn’t there.”

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New Jersey: Can Republicans Pull an Upset?

• Candidate: Jack Ciattarelli (Republican)
• Optimism Fueled By: Record-high Republican registration, support from Orthodox Jewish voters, and significant Latino vote gains for the GOP in recent cycles.
• Challenges:
  • Democrats lead by 7,300 votes in early, in-person ballots.
  • Democrats have a massive 221,000-vote mail-in ballot lead.
  • Urgency: 72,000 Republicans have received but not returned their mail-in ballots.
  • Quote (Gardusky, 10:25):
    “There are 72,000 votes for Jack Ciattarelli on people’s kitchen tables and they haven’t returned those ballots yet. That’s a lot of catching up to do to chase those ballots and make sure they are returned.”
• Shift Among Minority Voters: Notably, Trump saw a large uptick among Hispanics and nonwhite voters in New Jersey (Trump got 39% of Hispanic-majority precincts in 2024, up from 26%).
  • Quote (Gardusky, 12:14):
    “Cittarelli needs to see a similar bump because Cittarelli does better than Trump in the white suburbs. He needs to get Trump-like numbers among the Hispanic areas.”

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Virginia Statewide Races

• Top Republican Hope: Jason Miyares (AG candidate), who has led in the majority of polls.
• Complications: VA doesn’t register voters by party, making turnout estimation tricky.
  • Miyares leads most polls by 4 points.
  • Abigail Spanberger (Democrat) has an 8-9 point polling lead for governor.
• Down-ballot Impact: Republican Lieutenant Gov. candidate John Reid only down 4 points, which may indicate underlying GOP strength.
• Geographic Turnout: Democrats doing well in Richmond (high turnout), GOP must boost numbers in southwestern (coal country) Virginia and swingy Virginia Beach.
  • Quote (Gardusky, 14:56):
    “Southwest Virginia, which loves Donald Trump... they are being the lagging indicator in this entire election. Fairfax doesn’t have great turnout so far. Neither does Virginia Beach...”

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Win Probabilities Recap

[15:59 – 17:53]

• NYC: Mandani 90% favored, Cuomo has slim path.

• NJ: Ciattarelli 40% chance; needs Republicans and Hispanics to show up.

• Virginia: Miyares 55% chance; depends on down-ballot strength and turnout—especially if GOP LG candidate keeps margin close.

• Spanberger (VA Gov.): “95% chance” of winning.

• Quote (Gardusky, 16:17):
  “Chitterelli [NJ] has a lot of things looking good in his direction. He just needs them all to break... The narrative right now across the country is this: I don’t know if Republicans are waiting for election day, but they have not shown up in the numbers they need to in these early votes.”

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2. The Government Shutdown: Who Gets the Blame as Pain Hits?

[25:47 – 37:16]

Shutdown Effects & Political Calculations

• Pain Points Identified:
  • Air traffic controllers have missed paychecks; some may call in sick, risking travel chaos.
  • SNAP/food stamp benefits run out soon—potentially affecting 42 million Americans.
• Partisan Finger-Pointing: Democrats now fracturing, some voting with GOP to reopen the government. Hosts argue it’s clearly a Democrat-initiated shutdown, but the media narrative is unstable.
  • Quote (Buck, 28:29):
    “You’ve had Ossoff and Warnock [Democrats]... they have voted with Republicans... so they’re getting pretty close to the 60 threshold here, Clay. I don’t think Republicans can blink on this one. This has turned into a real game of chicken.”
• On Federal Workers: Discussion on the reality that most furloughed workers (essential or not) will get back pay. Raises questions on the necessity of certain federal jobs.
  • Quote (Clay, 29:23):
    “Several of her peers opted not to work and to take a fully paid furlough... they just are treating this as a one-month paid vacation because they know they’re going to eventually get back pay.”

Political Fallout and Next Steps

• Travel and Services as Pressure Points: The real crisis will come when travel chaos erupts due to absent air traffic controllers and TSA agents.
  • Quote (Buck, 32:56):
    “If at some of the major airports... you have to wait three or four hours because of air traffic control delays or maybe your flight even just gets canceled outright... when you get to the airport or you can’t get through TSA... people get ticked off... and they start calling congressional switchboards.”
• Prediction: Democrats will likely try to hold out until after Election Day, after which a deal will be found.
  • Quote (Buck, 33:20):
    “My sense right now is the Democrats are just waiting till after the election. I think Democrats are going to cave, but they’re going to cave after Election Day.”

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3. Media Narrative and Public Opinion: Who’s Responsible for the Shutdown?

[43:30 – 46:44]

• Highlight: Harry Enten (CNN) polling clip
  • Enten notes that voters are starting to blame Democrats for the shutdown; the media narrative is shifting as even CNN acknowledges Democratic responsibility.
    • Quote (Clay, 44:16):
      “When CNN’s got their polling and they’re coming on and saying, actually now voters are starting to blame Democrats in a substantial way... this overall shutdown is benefiting... the Republican Party.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Mandani’s Odds (NYC) [08:07]:
  “No one really expects him to get a majority... If he gets over a million votes, it really shows the ceiling isn’t there.” – Ryan Gardusky
• On NJ GOP Ballots (10:25):
  “There are 72,000 votes for Jack Ciattarelli on people’s kitchen tables and they haven’t returned those ballots yet.” – Ryan Gardusky
• On Early Republican Turnout (16:17):
  “The narrative right now across the country is this: I don’t know if Republicans are waiting for election day, but they have not shown up in the numbers they need to in these early votes.” – Ryan Gardusky
• On Furloughed Federal Workers (29:23):
  “Several of her peers opted not to work and to take a fully paid furlough... they just are treating this as a one-month paid vacation.” – Clay Travis
• Shutdown is Political Chicken (28:29):
  “I don’t think Republicans can blink on this one. This has turned into a real game of chicken.” – Buck Sexton

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Episode Timeline

| Segment | Timestamps | |-------------------------------------------------|---------------------| | Ads, show intro/prelude | 00:00 – 04:15 | | Election analysis w/ Ryan Gardusky | 04:16 – 17:53 | | Sponsor/Ad break | 17:54 – 23:35 | | Shutdown and federal workers discussion | 25:47 – 37:16 | | Political/media narrative & public polling | 43:30 – 46:44 |

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Tone and Language

As always, Clay and Buck mix data-heavy insights with breezy, sometimes irreverent banter (e.g., joking about costume parties and government workers’ “paid vacations”), alongside sharp skepticism of mainstream media narratives and Democratic messaging.

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Closing Notes

This episode is essential listening for anyone tracking the 2025 election cycle, especially in states seen as bellwethers for GOP resurgence. Ryan Gardusky’s granular, numbers-based analysis stands out, and the discussion on the government shutdown pressures is directly relevant for federal workers and all politically engaged Americans. The overarching theme is that, for Republican hopes, turnout on Election Day—and mobilizing the elusive “Trump-like” voter base—is crucial to upending Democratic leads that may appear formidable in early voting.

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For further detail and granular election analysis, check out “It’s a Numbers Game with Ryan Gardusky” on the Clay and Buck Podcast Network.

Transcript

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Start your 7 day free trial today. Offers are subject to change. Go to Fox one for complete terms and conditions. Fox one we live for live streaming now. Buy Gold and get free silver for every $5,000 you invest in a gold purchase from Birch Gold Group this month they will send you a free patriotic silver round that commemorates the Gadsden and American flags. Gold is up over 50% this year. Birch Gold can help you own it by converting an existing IRA or 401k into a tax sheltered IRA in physical gold. Text My Name Buck to the number 989898 for a free info kit and to claim your eligibility for free silver with qualifying purchase before the end of the month. Again text my name Buck to 989898 second hour of play and Buck kicks off with our friend Ryan Gardusky does not have a pager on his person as far as I know right now does not have a paper. He joins us. He is of course the host of It's a Numbers Game Like Clay and Forever. You two are like bonded in the special Brotherhood of Banned from cnn. So Clay is banned from cnn, Ryan is banned from cnn. Quite honestly I feel a little left out. But it's all worked out because Ryan's podcast is fantastic. Highly recommend you go check it out in the Clay and Buck podcast network. He is also now on YouTube. It's a numbers Game. If you just want to know more about politics and impress all your friends who think they understand what's going on in the elections or just the polls month, any data out there, listen to It's a Numbers Game and just steal all of what Ryan says. He gives you full permission if you watch and listen to steal what he says and tell all of your annoying lib friends. All right Ryan, with all that and and we appreciate you making the time for us. Let's dive in. We got three important races here. You know what, we'll make it a dealer's choice. Which one do you want to dive into first? We've got New Jersey, Virginia, New York City Mayors race. What do you think?

[Ryan Gardusky]

Talk about New York City first. It's the top of my sheet of my cheat sheet of numbers for you guys. So New York City, the Mayor's election obviously on Tuesday with a three way race between Cuomo, Zora Mandani and Curtis Lewa. The polling has been fairly consistent, right? It shows Mandani with an average of a 15 point lead overall depending on which poll you look at, but it's about 15 point lead. Early on there was an article by the Gothamist giving some glimmer of hope to Cuomo and his supporters. Is that the electorate so far in this election in the early votes has been very, very old. There are more people between the ages of 70 to 75 voting than people between the ages of 18 to 24. That was not happening in the Democratic primary when Mandani won. The electorate has been Progressively becoming younger as the days have gone on, though. When the voting began, voters under 40 were just 28% of people showing up in the early vote. Now they're up to 35%. And what's giving some anxiety to Cuomo supporters is Sunday is the New York City Marathon, which runs through the, quote, unquote, commie corridor of the big socialist blocks of New York City where people vote. It's going to be good weather. People might go and vote right afterwards. The elector has been slightly older, slightly blacker. Some of the outer boroughs have been showing up in bigger numbers. Aside from Brooklyn and Manhattan, Staten island and Queens are showing up in big numbers. The Bronx, which is Cuomo's best county, is having horrific turnout, though. They're not showing up, you know, in the numbers that they need to for Cuomo. So that's certainly got to give his supporters a lot of anxiety. What Cuomo really needs right now are two very big things, Republicans to start showing up. Republicans are. Only 5% of all registered Republicans in New York City have shown up to go vote so far in the early election. That's compared to 8% of all Democrats. Just 3% of registered independents have shown up. But this electorate is much more Democratic right now than the 2024 election, when Trump got surged in New York City, did much better than people expected him to. So he's going to need a lot more Republicans to show up and then to break against Curtis in a big way. They need Curtis to underperform and for Republicans to show up. And really for seniors in the far parts, the Attleborough, southern Bronx, western Queens, northern northern Bronx and southern Brooklyn, to really pick up momentum as this goes on. This is going to be a gigantic turnout election, probably the biggest election since the 1993 mayor election when Rudy Giuliani won against Mayor Dinkins. He was not. Sorry, yeah, Mayor Dinkins. He was. It was a 1.4 million person turnout. This could get closer to 2 million, is what I'm hearing from people analyzing on the ground. A lot more people are showing up. We are at 33% of the 2021 numbers within just five days of early voting. So immense turnout in New York City. Republicans just really got to start picking up and they got a break for Cuomo for him to have a chance. And more seniors have to show up. And seniors have been showing up, but they have to show up. That's the New York City thing right now. It still looks like a Mandani victory. There is a small pass for Cuomo. He just has to really get on the ground to get these older voters out to support him.

[Clay Travis]

We had Curtis Lewan yesterday, Ryan, and if Curtis Lee was dropped out, Let me just ask it to you this way. What do you think the chances are we wake up Wednesday and a majority of New York City voters will have actually voted against mom Donnie, but that is split among Cuomo and Sliwa. Do you think that's likely? Do you think that Mamdani will get an overall majority? Or do you think more people will vote against mom Donnie, but in a three way he's going to end up as the likely winner that direction.

[Ryan Gardusky]

So in all the polls, Mandani has only gotten a majority in one poll out of all the polls taken in New York City. No one really expects him to get a majority. Now. Things could change, especially with this is going to be a real question of is there a ceiling for these socialist candidates? Are they so toxic that they can't get past in New York City's case, Moormandani, 7, 8, 900,000 votes. If he gets over a million votes, it really shows the ceiling isn't there. And this is the conversation that Democrats used to have about Trump. He can't get more than 47% until he got close to 50. If there is a ceiling for Mandani, if they say his policies are too unpopular or he is too unlikable, and certainly his favorable ratings have dropped in all the polling I've seen. And that shows that, that, that hurts people like aoc, who wants to run in the future. That hurts the far left who want to run nationwide in the future for the presidency to say, hey, listen, there's a cap on how many people really are willing to sit there and go to the far left.

[Buck Sexton]

Speaking of Ryan Garduski, it's a numbers game. It's his podcast on the Clay and Buck network. Go check that one out. Go make sure you have the iHeart app and you're checking out what's in the feedback. Ryan, talk to me about Citarelli in New Jersey. I'm seeing some things that make me feel kind of warm and fuzzy about it, but I'm getting a little ahead of myself. I'm sure you're here to set me straight. What's really going on? Is this the best chance for a Republican shock win?

[Ryan Gardusky]

Yes, this is 100%. Aside from Jason Muir is the best chance for Republican. So here's the, here's the, here's the thing that the good thing going for for Cittarelli is that There's a lot more registered Republicans than there ever have been for Cittarelli. He ran like I think 80,000 more Republicans than there were the last time that he ran. And a lot fewer Democrats. People have switched registrations and people have just stopped voting or they passed away or they just, you know, didn't. They're no longer keeping up their registration, becoming independent. Here's the bad thing for Cittarelli. In 2024, at this point, Republicans had a lead for Trump in the presidential election in in person voting. Right? There were more Republicans showing up to vote in person in the early voting than Democrats. Even in a state, Jersey has such a big Democratic lead. That is not the case for Citarella. Right now, Democrats have a 7,300 person lead in the early vote. Now that's not a ton. That's not unimaginable to sit there and break because in 2021, Cittarelli won election day votes by over 2, by about 200,000 votes. What gives me anxiety is that the mail in vote lead for Democrats is substantially large. 221,000 more Democrats have submitted a mail in ballot than Republicans. But the craziest thing is for this buck, 72,000 Republicans in New Jersey have received a mail in ballot and have not returned it. There are 72,000 votes for Jack Ciattorelli on people's kitchen tables and they haven't returned those ballots yet. That's a lot of catching up to do to chase those ballots and make sure they are returned. Now once again, he's going to win election day of in front. He may win it by a lot. There are two different questions when it comes to how are these voters sitting there and breaking objectionarily has the support of all the orthodox Jewish communities in New Jersey, which is substantial, especially like in Ocean county where there's Lakewood in it. That's bringing a lot of votes. Many of them are registered Democrats. There's also the question of what is going on with these non white voters who have been Democrats their whole life and broke for Trump. Remember in 2020, in the 2020 election, Trump won just 26% of Hispanic majority precincts in New Jersey. In 2024, Trump won 39%, a 13 point bounce in New Jersey in Hispanic majority precincts. How are they going to vote? Because they voted just. They voted for Jack Cittarelli at the same rate they voted for Trump in 2021. So Trump received 26%, Cittarelli received 26%. If Cittarelli gets 39% or anywhere close among these Hispanic people who have mostly stayed registered Democrat, that could be a big, big difference. The New York Times was questioning where are these non white voters who broke substantially in Trump's favor. Trump got 43% of all nonwhite voters in New Jersey up from. Sorry, he lost them by 27 points. He lost by 43 points. Previously there was a 16 point bump in non white communities in New Jersey from 2020 to 2024. Cittarelli needs to see it similar bump because Cittarelli does better than Trump in the white suburbs. He needs to get Trump like numbers among the Hispanic areas. Overall in New Jersey there have been 490,000 Democrats who have voted and 261,000 Republicans and 165,000 indies breaking down percentage wise, 53% of the electorate so far has been Democrat, 29% have been Republican and 18% independent. Jack Chiarelli needs these Republicans to show up. He's probably going to need about a quarter of a million to 300,000 on election day to show up advantage towards him in order to sit there and win this. And he's going to need some of these Hispanics, especially Hispanics in northern New Jersey who voted for Trump to sit there and vote with him.

[Clay Travis]

So we think that he could win in New Jersey. Challenging path. What about Virginia? It seems to me like Jason Miar is based on the polling that I'm seeing, the Attorney General candidate that we've had on this program, the Republican running against Jay Jones is in very good position. Seems like Abigail Spanberger is in a solid position. On the flip side going up against the win some Sears. Is that an accurate read? What would you say about the data right now in Virginia?

[Ryan Gardusky]

Right. So Virginia is one of these states that doesn't register voters by party, which makes it very hard to kind of like parse through the information. In the last 20 days there have been 13 polls in New Jersey. Sorry. In Virginia Rather in the 13 polls, Miariz has led in 10 of them. It's been tied in 2 and Jones has led in just 1. Overall the average has MIARS with a 4 point polling advantage. Spamberger has somewhere around an 8 or 9 point voting advantage. But the interesting thing, and the interesting question is is the Lieutenant Governor's race which isn't really receiving much, you know, spotlight the Republican Reid, his name is John Reid who's running. He is only down about four points in the polls if the, if the generic ballot because no one knows. They're just basically voting for who they like by party. If the generic ballot shows that lieutenant governor's race is within four points then really Spamberger shows that she's either a very popular or Winston Sears is very unpopular and people are voting one direction for governor and changing their vote down ballot. That may be the case. What Winston Sears has to do is not necessarily win but make sure the gap doesn't get to double digits. Because if the gap gets to double digits, if she's leading by 10 sorry. If Winston Sears is losing by 10, 11, 12 points, getting the Aras over the finish line becomes very, very difficult. We're seeing this, we're seeing when we look at the counties of who is showing up where deep Republican counties are having some of the best turnout and some of the worst. And it's really the area around Richmond Virginia that is having gang bus turnout which is very heavily Democrat, very college educated. What Southwest Virginia, which loves Donald Trump voted 80% for Donald Trump. What they need to do is start showing up because they are being the lagging indicator in this entire election. Fairfax doesn't have great turnout so far. Neither does Virginia beach which is the swing part of Virginia. But if they want to counter Richmond they start need to see, start start seeing Southwest Virginia coal country Virginia really bring up good numbers and so far it's been definitely on the lower end of turnout.

[Buck Sexton]

So you think New Jersey just to recap here is mom Donnie basically a shoe in is it pretty, pretty realistic for New Jersey to be good to go? Realistic is I guess the best way to say it to go red and then you're Span Burger is probably going to pull this out. Like how would you just if you're.

[Ryan Gardusky]

Forced to Spamberger's got probably a 90 something percent chance of winning. 95% chance of winning. Over in New over in New York I would say Mandani is probably around 85% or 80% chances. There's a small window for Cuomo actually probably 90% chance Mandani is going to sit there and win. Cuomo has a path and he's had some good things break in his favor. He just needs that to continue overall early voting and we need to see if there is a ceiling for socialist candidates in New York City. Over in, over in Virginia Miarez I would say probably is a 55% chance. A lot of it going to depend on if Winston Sears keeps her loss margin tight and if Republicans sit there and pick up down ballot. And over in New Jersey I would give chitterelli around a 4040 about a 40% chance of winning. Chitterelli has a lot of things looking good in his direction. He just needs them all to break. And the narrative right now across the country is this. I don't know if Republicans are waiting for election day, but they have not shown up in the numbers they need to in these early votes to not give Democrats a giant lead. I know Republicans are nervous of voting early, but on election day over in, over in New Jersey, Mickey Sherrill is going to start off the day with a quarter of a million more banked votes. And that's votes that Cittarelli needs to show up and needs that break in his favor on election day.

[Clay Travis]

Ryan, your podcast up on YouTube. We also can you can find Ryan if you want more detail on the numbers game inside of the Clay and Buck podcast network. And occasionally he makes great beeper jokes that make people at CNN very sad. Ryan, we appreciate you, my man.

[Ryan Gardusky]

Appreciate you both. Thank you.

[Clay Travis]

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Games continue on NFL Network and here our stars come out in the morning. Week 10 Bajan Robinson and the Falcons take on Daniel Jones and the Colts in Berlin.

[Buck Sexton]

Fireworks in the fourth quarter.

[NFL Network Announcer]

Then in week 11, Jaden Daniels and the Commanders face Tua and the Dolphins in Madrid. Snooze off. Game on it's Sunday morning football continues November 9th at 9:30 Eastern only on NFL Network.

[Clay Travis]

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[Clay Travis]

Go to PureTalk.com Clay and PureTalk's US customer service team will have you switched in as little as 10 minutes. Again. PureTalk.com Clay and switch today to America's wireless company, PureTalk. Welcome back in Clay. Travis Buck Sexton show we are rolling through the Thursday edition of the program Halloween Eve. Buck, when's the last time you dressed up? Up?

[Buck Sexton]

1989, my 20s maybe.

[Clay Travis]

Oh, okay. So you weren't anti costume guy as an adult.

[Buck Sexton]

I mean I was single guy who liked seeing the ladies in my General Milieu of D.C. or New York dressed up as various nurses.

[Clay Travis]

You know, so I just didn't know because I could see you being like I don't do costumes. I don't go to costume parties.

[Buck Sexton]

A lot of Lara Croft, a lot of Lara Croft Tomb Raider costumes in Tomb Raider costumes in my world, things like that.

[Clay Travis]

You know, a lot more slutty nurses costumes than slutty nurses ever in real life. Just, you know, tossing that out there. I've never seen that many, you know, nurse sexy. Also chambermaids, I don't think.

[Buck Sexton]

I love clay throws like a clay throws like a wounded duck pass across the middle. Just wondering if Buck's going to catch that one and just get laid out. But you know what, I'm just going to leave your slutty nurse comment.

[Clay Travis]

First time to other people. First time I went to France I was like I can't wait to see the maids. I've never actually seen an attractive French maid either. This is a little bit of falsehood I think in the costume industry out there. But you know what? There's not Falsehood in Sabre, they'll keep you safe, whether you're going to a Halloween costume party or you're just walking around in your parking garage. Maybe you got a little bit of a late night job. Maybe you got an early morning start. Maybe you are just not that comfortable in many different parts of your city. And heck, I'm in Chicago right now. And as soon as I said I was in Chicago, everybody was like, better keep your head on a swivel. No telling what might happen with Jussie Smollett's attackers downtown later tonight, Clay. But I've got Sabre to help take care of me and my family. It's spelled S a B R e. The website saberradio.com they will hook you up no matter what you're looking for, whether it's a home defense projectile pepper spray launcher, or how about if it's just pepper spray itself? We have every single one of these products in the Travis household. You're going to want them to saberradio.com S A B R E radio.com 15 off saberradio.com I welcome back in here.

[Buck Sexton]

To Clay and Buck. You know, the shutdown is still going on right now, which is pretty, pretty rough when you start to see, you start to line up some of the challenges, some of the problems here that we've got. And Senator Thune, who's the Senate majority leader, he's not a guy who you see getting a lot of headlines or viral clips for being angry about anything and being demonstrative in his outrage. But he's pretty ticked off. It seems this has cut 20 Senate Majority Leader Thune. Let's hear it.

[Clay Travis]

We are 29 days into a Democrat shutdown. And the senator from New Mexico was absolutely right. SNAP recipients shouldn't go without food. People should be getting paid in this country. And we tried to do that 13 times and you voted no 13 times. This isn't a political game. These are real people's lives that we're talking about. And you all just figured out 29 days in that, oh, there might be some consequences. There are people who run out of money.

[Buck Sexton]

Clay. Let's get into some of these consequences. For example, really good piece from a friend of mine, friend of ours, Kim Strassel over at the Wall Street Journal laying out what's going on here. For one thing, air traffic controllers have, as of Tuesday, missed their paycheck. Now they have to show up, but in the past, they have started to call in sick. You know, because even if you're legally required to show up to work. Well, if you say you have the flu. Right. You're not legally required anymore. So that could be really rough for travelers. The American Federation of Government employees, they are four different unions for commercial pilots, Teamsters, etc. They're very, very agitated about the shutdown snap, which is food stamps, that runs out on the 1st of November. So that will leave 42 million people without food stamp benefits. And you got some, some real stuff coming together here. That could be a challenge. You know, Democrats, Clay, have started to break party lines a little bit. You've had Ossoff and Warnock in Georgia because they know those are, those are competitive seats. That, that's a purple state. They have voted with Republicans. Democrats like Fetterman, Angus King and Catherine Cortez Masto have voted with Republicans all along to reopen the government. So they're getting pretty close to the 60 threshold here, Clay. I don't think Republicans can blink on this one. This is. But this has turned into a real game of chicken.

[Clay Travis]

Yeah, look, I mean, you have to get to 60. We have 53 Republicans. You just laid it out. I think the number they've gotten the highest is 56 so far, depending on exactly what motion we're talking about. I also got this email from a listener. I thought it was interesting. I'm not going to name him, but listen to this. This email that he sent. Hey, Clay. We met in Omaha at the College World Series. Longtime follower and love the show. Here's something you may want to include. Federal employees who opted to work during the shutdown will be paid in full when the government reopens. I think everybody out there is nodding along and saying, yeah, that should happen. This is what he says. And I would be curious to read more about this. I haven't seen this reported very much. He says federal employees who opted not to work will also be paid in full when the government reopens. And he says here, you read that right. My wife, I'm not gonna say what she does, but she's been working during the shutdown because she's deemed essential and it's the right thing to do. However, several of her peers opted not to work and to take a fully paid furlough. And so while some federal employees are working without pay, there are others who are traveling, going to festivals, relaxing, doing nothing who will be paid exactly the same as those who worked during the shutdown. Most of those who aren't working are Trump hating bureaucrats who just wanna stick it to him. This is something that should be Looked into. Look, I understand some people have to go to work. Air traffic controllers, great example. Because we can't stop air traffic in the country. TSA agents, even I flew this morning. I mean, these guys and gals are showing up because without them we can't have security clearance. All those things. I respect anybody who goes to work and puts in a hard day's work. But yeah, for some of these government employees, they just are treating this as a one month paid vacation because they know they're going to eventually get back pay. And in the meantime, they just don't show up at work. So I think that's one reason you're not seeing this drumbeat of anger in some of the same way that you. Because they know their salaries are good. And if you don't have to show up, I wonder what percentage of federal employees are just not showing up at all, not doing anything and know they're basically going to get paid for a month's vacation. How many of you would like to have a fully paid month's vacation off in a row? I bet almost everybody listening right now would appreciate that. That.

[Buck Sexton]

Well, what, what. There's very different versions of shutdown pain for federal government employees. Right. For example, you could be in the. And I know that there was that donor that now they've de. Anonymized. Right. They've come forward to say who the donor is. That's a Trump, Trump supporter who came Forward to pay $130 million for military salaries. So if you're a military family, I mean, for example, my wife's family, military family, you're generally living paycheck to paycheck. Right. I mean, that's a very, very common thing for people who are active duty. And, and, and that's very common thing for Americans in general, but it's certainly common for people who are on the military side of things. So now they've been covered for a period of time. If you're in one of these dual income DC Bureaucrat households, probably you went to gw, I lived in DC we know some of these. You're talking about households where now I know DC Cost of living is pretty high, but households where the combined income is quarter of a million bucks, pretty easily 250k, maybe 300k, maybe have somebody who works for the federal government, somebody else who's at an overpaid NGO post, you're making 300k between the two of them, something like that. So for some of those households, this is more of a. All right, put it on the Credit card for a week or two. We'll pay it off when all the, when the funds all get turned on. I think, Clay, the places where the real pressure starts to come together is air traffic controllers.

[Clay Travis]

They should be getting full pay. They should be getting full pay. Let's just be honest, like, and, and.

[Buck Sexton]

The idea that they're coming in and not getting paid and that some of them are going to say, you know what, this is bull crap and I'm going to stay home. And that means there's going to be shortages and that means long, difficult lines, my friends. How angry, how angry are people going to get if at some of the major airports. I love Miami, but I cannot say enough bad things about MIA airport. Miami airport is just one of the.

[Clay Travis]

Worst well designed for a post 911 world.

[Buck Sexton]

It's horrible. It's like it's. They should honestly, if they could just start from scratch. I wish they would. It's terrible airport. But when you have to wait three or four hours because of air traffic control delays or maybe your flight even just gets canceled outright when you get.

[Clay Travis]

To the airport or you can't get through TSA because some of these people are not showing.

[Buck Sexton]

That's right. They get ticked off and they start calling, calling congressional switchboards. And you know that then you've got people that are really angry. And it all also hurts the airlines. Now the airlines have to rebook people and they got to pay people all this stuff. So I think that's a real pressure point. And my sense right now is the Democrats are just waiting till after the election. Right. I think that's, I think Democrats are going to, are going to cave, but they're going to cave after Election Day.

[Clay Travis]

I also think the, increasingly even the media, I saw Jake Tapper calling out Democrats and saying, actually you're the ones that shut down the government. Increasingly, it's hard for them to argue somebody else is to blame.

[Buck Sexton]

Really more of a gentle reminder from.

[Clay Travis]

But I mean, even CNN is saying, hey, ultimately this is your fault. Do we have the Harry and 10 clips? We're also politically. I know we had it yesterday. I don't know if we rolled it over today, but when CNN has got their polling and they're coming on and they're saying, actually now voters are starting to blame Democrats in a substantial way and this overall shutdown is benefiting to a large extent the Republican Party. When all that starts to stack up, then people are looking around and saying, I think we talked about this a little bit yesterday, Buck, what's the off ramp. How do you get out of this mess that you're in right now? What is the. What is the. The escape hatch for Democrats right now? There isn't a good one, which is why I think they'll wait till after, you know, five days from now when we have the. The 2025 elections, and then they'll find a way to. To step off of the government shutdown conveyor belt.

[Buck Sexton]

I don't see a way around it. And the Democrats, really, what they're hoping for is what they've been able to do in the past where they just have. They have a bigger megaphone and they lie more aggressively about what's going on. And so they can say, you know, it's not our fault. No, this is. The Democrats have absolutely full responsibility for this government shutdown. They chose it. They've made it happen. Republicans have been. Have been voting to open the government, and the Democrats now have just done this thing of. Well, Republicans could. No, you can't. You know, if you're holding up a deal, be honest about how you're holding up a deal. That's not what they're doing, Clay. You're trying to just change the narrative to, this is somehow the Republicans that have brought this thing to a halt, and it's just a lie, and they don't have the kind of media power that they're used to having where they can shout down the truth as effectively.

[Clay Travis]

Yeah. And ultimately, if they lose again, I think that's just raw political calculus. I think they've been nervous about Virginia and turnout in Northern Virginia, and they feel like if people are angry and they aren't working and they're overwhelmingly federal employees, as often is the case in Northern Virginia, that they're likely to turn out and vote Democrat. They couldn't bend the knee before the stupid no kings protest. I saw someone tweet this buck, but it is very funny. How funny is it to go from, we're not going to allow kings to please give me food.

[Buck Sexton]

It is like ultimate, please, king, give me food.

[Clay Travis]

It is the ultimate thing that you see historically. Kings, please. Everybody's starving. Will you please give us food? That's like the snap angle now. We're not going to allow a king, oh, king, please give us food. But. But I think they see it as politically beneficial in Northern Virginia. They can't bend the knee before no kings. Now they see it as politically beneficial before the midterm. As soon of the. Before the 2025 elections. As soon as that's over, they want people to forget about this before the midterms because I think politically it is turned toxic for them nationwide and it's.

[Buck Sexton]

Only going to become more toxic as these pain points continue on. So we'll I just wanted to update on this one. I think that it is coming to an end here, but it's not going to come to an end for for a few more days. Everywhere you turn these days, you'll see some element of artificial intelligence, AI, automated phone calls, social media advertising in your feeds, driver assistance in cars. You know the way mos you see driving around AI technology is making our lives more elevated. Businesses with serious funding and big time staff sizes are growing as a part of this economy every day. And there's a real appetite for AI to make everyone's life easier and more productive. The White House, the Trump administration, they see this. They see this as the most transformational technology perhaps of our lives. And that's why I've been doing a lot of deep dive research into Trump's AI plan. Now this is something you can read in my E Newsletter. Money and Power. Totally separate from this program, by the way. I'm doing this in partnership with Paradigm Press and some incredible really smart researchers who know all about the markets and stocks. They've pulled together a team and we are doing great work. It's a one of a kind opportunity for any of you to learn what's going on and to figure out how you can profit from it too. Designed to help ordinary people capitalize on the huge wealth explosion being created by what I'm calling Manhattan Project 2. It's all about leveling the playing field so everyday folks can participate in this huge Trump market upswing. Get a subscription [e-mail] you'll be so glad you did.insider2025.com paid for by Paradigm Press. You ain't imagining it.

[Clay Travis]

The world has gone insane. Reclaim your sanity with Clay and Buck. Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Clay Travis]

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[Buck Sexton]

In addition to federal grants and aid, GCU's online students received nearly $161 million in institutional scholarships in 2024. Find your purpose at Grand Canyon University Private Christian Affordable. Visit GCU edumyoffer to see the scholarships you may qualify for. That's GCU Edu Myoffer the NFL International.

[NFL Network Announcer]

Games continue on NFL Network and here our stars come out in the morning. Week 10, Bijon Robinson and the Falcons take on Daniel Jones and the Colts in Berlin Cliff. Then in week 11, Jaden Daniels and the Commanders face Tua and the Dolphins in Madrid. Snooze off game on it's Sunday Morning Football continues November 9th at 9:30 Eastern only on NFL Network.

[Clay Travis]

Now you can stream Fox News Live on the Fox One app. Stay on top of breaking news and the biggest stories. Live as they happen, all from the Fox voices you trust, bringing you the coverage you won't find anywhere else.

[Buck Sexton]

Start your seven day free trial today. Offers are subject to change. Go to Fox one for complete terms and conditions. Fox one we live for live streaming now. There are a number of reasons I'm proud to say PureTalk is my wireless company. They don't just talk the talk, they walk the walk. Especially when it comes to supporting our veterans.

[Clay Travis]

This month, PureTalk is choosing to support Canines for Warriors, an incredible organization that rescues and trains dogs, then pairs them with veterans struggling with ptsd. These are men and women who served with honor, but when they come home, that brotherhood, that support network they had in the military too often disappears. Canines for Warrior steps up to fill that gap, giving these heroes purpose, companionship and healing.

[Buck Sexton]

That's exactly why Pure Talk, a veteran led company, supports them. Choose a wireless company who shares your values and with talk, text and plenty of 5G data for just $25 a month, you could also be saving a lot of Money.

[Clay Travis]

Go to PureTalk.com Clay and PureTalk's US customer service team will have you switched in as little as 10 minutes. Again, puretalk.com clay and switch today to America's wireless company, PureTalk. Welcome back in Clay. Travis BUCK SEXTON SHOW We've got a couple of different things that I wanted to play for you here as we finish off second hour. I had the team pull over the audio that we had had of Harry Enton on cnn, I believe, telling everybody, hey, the numbers are not ideal for Democrats on this shutdown. Voters are blaming Democrats. That's cut 33.

[Buck Sexton]

The worry in terms of climate change.

[Clay Travis]

Simply put, hasn't shifted.

[Buck Sexton]

It has not reached the majority of Americans. What are we talking about?

[Clay Travis]

Greatly worried about climate change.

[Buck Sexton]

You go all the way back to.

[Clay Travis]

1989, it was 35%, 20, 40%, 2020, 46%.

[Buck Sexton]

And in 2025, look at that, it's 40%, the same number as we had 25 years ago.

[Clay Travis]

Is it the biggest thing they're worried about? Yeah.

[Buck Sexton]

It is not anywhere close to being the biggest thing that people are worried about. Top issue facing United States climate change. It was 3% in 2021, 2% on average of polls in 2023 and this year the average of polls, 2, 1, 2. It is very, very low on the list of priorities to the bottom line. Line is not only are we seeing that the number has not really moved over the last 36 years, but in terms of being the top issue, it.

[Clay Travis]

Simply put, has not broken through.

[Ryan Gardusky]

All right.

[Clay Travis]

That was actually the climate change collapse, not the government shutdown collapse. In support. We'll see if we can get that in the third hour for you. Keith in Illinois, I was reading a email from a listener about federal furloughed workers and what exactly is going on. What you got for us?

[Ryan Gardusky]

Yeah, I'm a furloughed worker and because of my position description and my job, I am not allowed to go to work. I, in fact, if I even log on a government computer to check my email, I risk getting fired.

[Clay Travis]

Okay, but will you get paid for the full shutdown?

[Ryan Gardusky]

I will because of the law they passed. But it's not a vacation. I don't have a choice. I'm not allowed to go in.

[Buck Sexton]

Correct.

[Clay Travis]

But I, I would love to be told, I Can't check an email or I'll immediately get fired. And I mean, again, thank you for the call. I understand the, hey, they won't let me work. I think there's a lot of people out there who, if you told them, hey, if you check your email, you're going to get fired and you get a full month of pay without having to do anything. I would like to sign up for that.

[Buck Sexton]

This is a, this is a mindset thing really. A lot of our listeners don't like, like who, who are affected by the shutdown. And I get this. They don't like the implication that, you know, well, it's, you know, I'm being lazy and just getting paid to do nothing. They do have no choice. But another way to see this is if you know you're going to get paid when the government opens. It's not that bad of it not that bad of a situation. I have a friend who is on furlough who's working on a memoir.

[Clay Travis]

Yeah.

[Buck Sexton]

So, you know, it's not that bad.

[Clay Travis]

I mean I, if I knew I got full paid furlough, I wouldn't mind being on full paid furlough.

[Buck Sexton]

And you can't be, and you can't be punished. Right. One of the things about vacation of jobs is you think you take too much time. Even if people say it's okay, you're like, but is it really okay? Right. In this situation, everybody's, it's like being mandated to stay home during COVID Like it's not your fault and there's no punishment for this.

[Clay Travis]

I would also point out, and I've always thought this, if you cannot work for a month and everything's fine, your job's not that important. I'm just going to say like you can leave for a month and not do it and then you come back and you're just able to do it. All right, we got the correct Harry into it now. Buck cut 34. We heard Harry into talk about climate change collapsing which the support for it.

[Buck Sexton]

No, no, we got to play it.

[Clay Travis]

We come back.

[Buck Sexton]

We don't have, we don't have time.

[Clay Travis]

All right, we'll play it when we come back.

[Buck Sexton]

So everyone has to stay with us through the break. That's right. We call a tease.

[Clay Travis]

Also, by the way, breaking news for people in Omaha. Since I was reading an Omaha email, Buck, your head coach is staying present. Matt Rule is staying in Nebraska. Probably didn't expect to hear that. But kfab, which should be called kfab, I guarantee you that is big news there. When we come back, we'll play you the Harry into the fact that that's collapsing. We will talk with you about Gavin Newsom being caught in yet more lies about what he said about Charlie Kirk and J.D. vance on some UFOs. Plus, we'll be joined by the Lieutenant Governor of Indiana to talk redistricting in that state. All that and more. You won't want to miss it and we will be hanging out with you. Coming up with the third hour Thursday edition.

[Buck Sexton]

Next.

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[Clay Travis]

Now you can stream Fox News live on the FOX One app. Stay on top of breaking news and the biggest stories live as they happen, all from the FOX voices you trust, bringing you the coverage you won't find anywhere else.

[Buck Sexton]

Start your 7 day free trial today. Offers are subject to change. Go to Fox one for complete terms and conditions. Fox one we live for live streaming now. Tornadoes in the Midwest, hurricanes on the coast, wildfires out west, natural disasters strike without warning anywhere.

[Clay Travis]

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[Buck Sexton]

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[Clay Travis]

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