The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: Hour 2 - When Are The Charges Coming?

Date: January 21, 2026 | Podcast: iHeartPodcasts

Episode Overview

In this hour, Clay Travis and Buck Sexton dive deep into the burning question on many conservatives’ minds: "When are the charges coming?" They examine the legal and political fallout from the ongoing investigations and controversies involving high-profile Democrats in Minnesota, particularly Governor Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, against the backdrop of ICE activity and the much-discussed Minnesota daycare fraud case. The hosts discuss prediction markets, the weaponization of the legal system, and the broader implications of politically motivated prosecutions, using recent Trump indictments as a framework. The episode is marked by a blend of skepticism, sharp wit, and thoughtful debate, including analysis of prediction probabilities, legal hurdles, and political consequences.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The "When Are the Charges Coming?" Dilemma

Timestamps: 04:14 – 06:55

• Bubbling Conservative Frustration:
  Clay observes that audiences are tired of empty outrage:

  “I think a lot of people now are saying, ‘When are charges going to come?’ because otherwise you’re just fulminating outrage. But it doesn’t lead to any tangible result.” – Clay Travis [05:25]

• Unlikely Prosecution Outlook:
  Both hosts agree it's extremely unlikely that high-profile Minnesota officials like Governor Tim Walz or Mayor Jacob Frey will face criminal charges related to the daycare fraud or anti-ICE protests.

  “No, yeah, they’re not going to prosecute either of them. ... The governor of Minnesota over this? No way. No way.” – Clay Travis [07:35]

2. Prediction Markets & Legal Odds

Timestamps: 07:08 – 11:34

• Betting on Accountability:
  Buck introduces prediction market odds, sparking a back-and-forth about the statistical chances of indictments:

  • Tim Walz: 44% chance of being charged in 2026.
  • Jacob Frey: 35% chance.
  • Ilhan Omar: 50/50.
  • Don Lemon: 76% chance.

  “So basically, according to the gambling markets, a 50/50 proposition on whether [Walz] will face any sort of significant [charge].” – Clay Travis [09:47]

• Legal Thresholds vs. Political Maneuvering:
  Both hosts are skeptical that wrongdoing can be proven or prosecuted at the highest levels, and they underline the lack of hard evidence.

  "What’s the charge? Being a moron? … We’re not going to have enough room in the prisons for all the Democrats, my friends." – Clay Travis [09:59]

3. The "Weaponization" of Legal Charges

Timestamps: 11:34 – 17:17

• Charging Politicians Can Backfire:
  Buck outlines how indicting polarizing figures can elevate their public profile:

  “You make Don Lemon a martyr. … The best thing that could happen for him is to be charged with a crime.” – Buck Sexton [11:48]

• The "Punishment is the Process":
  Applying law as a political weapon is fraught, especially if done without solid grounds. Reference is made to Trump’s own legal travails and their unexpected benefit to his public standing.

  “You just pointed out, they charge him with 34 felonies and now he’s the President because benefit. Enough people knew by the charges.” – Clay Travis [16:53]

4. Legal Standards & Ethics

Timestamps: 13:08 – 17:33, 32:08 – 34:29

• Difficulty in Proving Direct Corruption:
  Buck explains the evidentiary hurdles:

  “You would have to prove his knowledge of not just the fraud, but the fraud money coming to him… That is a super high bar.” – Clay Travis [14:10]

• Drawing the Legal Line:
  The hosts stress the importance of not filing frivolous or invented charges for political retribution.

  “You shouldn’t just charge Tim Walz with, like, murder because you don’t like the guy. That’s crazy. And … it doesn’t help your political cause.” – Clay Travis [32:56]

5. Calls from Listeners: Process, Punishment, and Public Sentiment

Timestamps: 24:25 – 32:08, 41:38 – 45:18

• The Process Is the Punishment:
  Both callers and hosts remind listeners that merely being subjected to investigation and prosecution is itself a penalty (even if there's no conviction).

  “The process is the punishment, guys. Let’s not forget that.” – James, Louisville [28:45]

• Political Calculus:
  A caller challenges the hosts, urging action regardless of political blowback:

  "Who cares? The Democrats will always vote Democrat. ... Just like the guy said." – Brian, North Carolina [43:25]

6. Political Fallout and Historical Perspective

Timestamps: 34:29 – 36:22

• Changing Norms in the Trump Era:
  Clay notes the old norm of “moving on for the good of the country,” and how that changed post-2016.

  “Trump himself took that position with Hillary Clinton and the classified information. He did not sic the DOJ on her. … It's in the interest of the country to move on.” – Clay Travis [34:29]

• Now, Symmetry Is Demanded:
  “In the Trump era … if you're a Democrat and you break the law, talking about Democrat in elected office, you pay the price.” – Clay Travis [35:53]

7. Listener Engagement and Open Questions

Throughout, esp. 30:23 – 34:29; 41:38 – 44:50

• Open Calls for Prosecutors’ Input:
  Buck encourages legal professionals in the audience to identify what, if anything, would be a legitimate charge.

  “What have you seen that you would charge Tim Walz with? … I haven’t gotten a former prosecutor saying something different…” – Buck Sexton [33:21]

8. Comic Relief & Notable Takedowns

Timestamps: 21:20 – 22:57

• Sharp Political Barbs:
  Scott Besant on Gavin Newsom:

  “Governor Newsom, who strikes me as Patrick Bateman meets Sparkle Beach Ken, may be the only Californian who knows less about economics than Kamala Harris.” – Scott Besant [21:54]

  • Clay laughs: “He decided it was time to tune up Gavin Newsom like Brigitte Macron tuned up Emmanuel. I mean that was a tough one.” [22:45]

9. Gavin Newsom, Don Lemon, and the ‘Viral Church Protest’

Timestamps: 41:38 – 43:25

• Newsom Dodges Commentary:
  When questioned about Don Lemon leading protesters into a church, Newsom claims ignorance, which Buck doesn’t buy:

  “Gavin Newsom said he literally knew nothing about Don Lemon going into a church. … I think he's lying and trying to avoid being held accountable for taking a take on it.” – Buck Sexton [42:46]

Notable Quotes

• On the likelihood of indictments:

  “I just kind of gotten used to no one of any significance ever getting charged.” – Buck Sexton [07:47]

• On public officials and legal consequences:

  “If being a moron was the charge, we wouldn’t have enough room in the prisons.” – Clay Travis [09:59]

• On politically motivated prosecutions:

  “You make Don Lemon a martyr. ... The best thing that could happen for him is to be charged with a crime.” – Buck Sexton [11:46]

• On the impact of Trump’s indictments:

  “You just pointed out, they charge him with 34 felonies and now he’s the President because benefit.” – Clay Travis [16:53]

• On ethical boundaries in prosecution:

  “You have to operate within the realm of reality because, one, I think there are some ethics and principles we still should adhere to.” – Buck Sexton [32:52]

Memorable Moments

• Scott Besant’s Takedown of Newsom:
  “Patrick Bateman meets Sparkle Beach Ken”—the sharpest jab of the hour, drawing laughter and a prolonged riff from the hosts [21:54–22:57].

• Clay’s "What’s the Charge? Being a moron?" Bit:
  A running joke about the impracticality (and absurdity) of prosecuting officials merely for incompetence [09:59–10:21].

• Audience Call-ins:
  Listeners push back and test Travis & Sexton’s reasoning on accountability, the difference between prediction and preference, and the dangers of weaponizing the law [24:25–32:08; 41:38–44:50].

Key Timestamps (MM:SS)

• 04:14 – Beginning of “when are charges coming” main topic
• 07:35 – Prediction market odds for Walz, Frey, and others
• 09:59 – “What’s the charge, being a moron?”
• 11:46 – “You make Don Lemon a martyr...”
• 14:10 – Hurdles to proving knowledge/intention in fraud
• 21:54 – Scott Besant’s takedown of Gavin Newsom
• 28:45 – Caller James emphasizes, “the process is the punishment”
• 32:56 – “You shouldn’t just charge ... because you don’t like the guy.”
• 34:29 – Historic norm of “moving on” from legal retribution in politics
• 41:38 – Return from break, Gavin Newsom dodges church protest question

Tone & Style

• Language: Candid, irreverent, high-energy; often mixing serious analysis with biting humor and occasional sarcasm
• Approach: Skeptical, pro-transparency, and critical of both political adversaries and ill-conceived strategies on their own side

Conclusion

This episode provides a sharp, often humorous, but deeply informed look at the legal and political calculus behind prosecuting political figures, focusing on the hot-button question of whether serious charges are on the horizon for Minnesota Democrats. Clay and Buck express a mix of skepticism about actual accountability, concern for legal ethics, and awareness that weaponizing the legal system can have unintended consequences—sometimes helping, not hurting, the accused. Listeners are reminded that in today’s political climate, the process is often as impactful as the punishment, and that the line between legal justice and political revenge is increasingly blurred.