The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: Hour 3 - Gov't Fraud Against You
Date: January 2, 2026
Guest Host: Brian Mudd (in for Clay & Buck)

Overview

This episode, guest hosted by Brian Mudd, focuses on the widespread abuse and fraud in government-administered programs, particularly COVID-related loans and funding for daycare centers in Minnesota. Mudd connects these incidents to larger issues of government inefficiency, waste, and the importance of political engagement—especially for conservatives—as the country approaches the midterm elections. Throughout, he offers a roadmap for Republicans to avoid repeating the losses of 2018 and capitalize on positive momentum, emphasizing voter turnout and registration trends.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Government Fraud: COVID Loans and the Minnesota Daycare Scandal

• Main Topic: The federal Small Business Administration (SBA) uncovered what it described as widespread suspected fraud in pandemic-era loans, echoing similar scandals like the extensive fraud in Somali-operated daycare centers in Minnesota.
• Details:
  • Loans: Approximately $400 million in questionable PPP (Paycheck Protection Program) and Economic Injury Disaster Loans tied to suspicious activity.
  • The “Somali daycare fraud” is painted as just the tip of the iceberg—with estimates suggesting up to $8 billion in fraud in Minnesota alone, dating back to 2018.
  • Common defense from those accused: claims of victimization and allegations of racism to deter scrutiny.
• Quote:

  "The potential we've heard for maybe up to $8 billion in fraud that took place going back to 2018. The potential is remarkable." – Brian Mudd [02:32]

2. Systemic Issues in Government Oversight

• Criticism of federal programs: Mudd argues that virtually every federal COVID-era program was ripe for abuse, blaming lack of accountability and inefficient bureaucracy.
• Analogy: Compares exposure of fraud to “peeling an onion: every layer you peel back, it's like, oh, but wait, there's more…” [02:32]
• Blame-shifting Tactics: Accused fraudsters invoking claims of racism when investigated.
• Critique of government size: “There are 430 federal government agencies. …How many do you think members of Congress can name if you put them in a room and took away their phones?” [~29:40]

3. Political Landscape and Voter Trends Toward 2026

• Comparison to 2018 midterms: Mudd claims Republicans are in a much stronger position today:
  • Trump’s average approval rating is 3 points higher than the same stage in 2018. [06:24]
  • Generic congressional ballot: GOP polling 9 points better than in 2018. [06:53]
• Voter Registration Shifts:
  • Democrats lost ground in every state that tracks party registration in 2025; worst performance since 1998.
  • Detailed stats: In swing states (Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, etc.), GOP registration increased while Democratic registration decreased.
• Quote:

  "Democrats lost ground last year in an off election year… It was the worst off election year performance… since 1998." – Brian Mudd [09:38]

4. Turnout Matters: Lessons from 2018

• Voter Turnout Patterns:
  • Only 64% turn out for presidential elections, 48% for midterms, and about 20% for local elections.
• Problem Identified: Many conservative voters stay home during midterms, providing a path for Democrats to win, even in favorable cycles.
  • “That's what this really gets down to is not taking this stuff for granted.” [31:30]
• Call to Action: Mudd urges listeners not to repeat past mistakes by staying home, but to prepare and energize others to vote in every election.

5. Explaining the Federal Funding in Daycare Programs

• Listener Call-in [22:38]:
  • Bob asks: Why are daycares federally funded?
  • Mudd explains the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program channels billions through the states into childcare—creating opportunities for large-scale fraud, especially where oversight is lax.
• Key Statistic:
  • $25 billion spent annually by the federal government on childcare/early education programs. [24:01]
• Quote:

  “That's how… you take a look at the accountability, you take a look at the fraud… So many reasons why it makes sense to cut the federal government, to have limited federal government, but this is one of the biggest right here.” – Brian Mudd [24:40]

6. The Roadmap for Republican Success in 2026

• Factors for GOP Optimism:
  • Improved voter registration and polling status versus 2018.
  • Democratic losses in party registration even in stronghold states.
  • Trump’s higher approval and broader support for Republicans.
• What Could Go Wrong:
  • Complacency and poor turnout by Republican voters, especially in non-presidential years.
• Prescriptive Advice:
  • Get engaged now, not just during election cycles.
  • Educate and mobilize other potential voters.
  • Recognize the importance of local elections as well as federal.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On government waste:

  “What is it the government gets right? What is it that it does well? Not a whole heck of a lot, which is why it’s best when it stays out of our way.” – Brian Mudd [03:54]

• On the fraud’s alleged victims:

  “They're victims. The Somali daycare centers, they're, they are real victims in all of this. …They think you're stupid. They really do think you're stupid.” – Brian Mudd [18:31]

• On the importance of turnout:

  “If this is you, get your head out of the butt. More importantly, if you know people who are like this, educate them, get them informed and engaged, be prepared now.” – Brian Mudd [33:40]

• On GOP opportunity:

  “Control what you can control and this could be a year of unprecedented success.” – Brian Mudd [35:33]

• Closing message:

  “We can do better. The math is there. You're there. Just get this done this time. Make this the fourth year that the President's party adds in a midterm election cycle. Should be a great run and a great year…” – Brian Mudd [41:30]

Important Segment Timestamps

• 02:32 – Deep dive into the scale and mechanics of COVID fraud and Minnesota daycare scandal.
• 06:24 – Positive shift for Trump and GOP in polls versus 2018; what’s different this time.
• 09:38 – Analysis of Democratic Party decline in voter registration.
• 18:31 – Mudd skewers the “victim” narrative and the culture of deflection among those accused of fraud.
• 22:38 – Caller Bob questions federal funding for daycares; breakdown of the TANF program and fraud vulnerabilities.
• 31:30 – The turnout problem: why Republicans often lose midterms despite favorable numbers.
• 35:33 – Urges action: “Control what you can control…”
• 41:30 – Closing rally for conservative listeners to not repeat 2018 and ensure strong results in 2026.

Tone and Style

Brian Mudd delivers the episode with a tone that is analytical but direct, mixing populist frustration with humor and a consistent call to action. His approach combines storytelling (e.g., the “onion” of fraud), pointed criticism of government inefficiency, and practical political strategy.

Summary for Non-Listeners

If you missed this episode, Brian Mudd outlined the shocking scope of government fraud in COVID relief and daycare funding, making it a case study for why smaller government is more accountable. He coupled criticism with optimism, presenting strong statistics showing Republican momentum in voter registration and polling. The crux of his message: these gains won’t matter unless conservative voters show up—in midterms and local races—as 2018’s painful lessons proved. Mudd’s roadmap: get informed, get engaged, and don’t let history repeat itself.