Hour 3 - How Does Iran End?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: Hour 3 - How Does Iran End?

Date: March 27, 2026 | Podcast Host: iHeartPodcasts

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Episode Overview

In this hour, Clay Travis and Buck Sexton host a wide-ranging conversation centered around major political and security issues—beginning with Florida’s Attorney General James Uthmeyer on law enforcement, Florida policy, and the NFL’s Rooney Rule. The latter half shifts to a global stage with ex-CIA officer Mike Baker, who discusses U.S.-Iran tensions, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, prospects for regime change, and strategic fallout from escalating conflict. The show blends hard analysis with friendly banter and listener call-ins on lighter topics.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Florida Law Enforcement, Civil Rights, and the NFL’s Rooney Rule

Guest: James Uthmeyer, Florida State Attorney General

• Crackdown on Crime & Fentanyl

  • Uthmeyer highlights major drops in crime and fentanyl-related deaths since taking office, attributing success to supporting law enforcement and strict legal enforcement.
    • “Our fentanyl death rate is down over 35%. Our fentanyl cases are down almost 60%. Crime continues to plummet.” (01:19)

• NFL’s Rooney Rule vs. Florida Civil Rights Statute

  • Uthmeyer argues the Rooney Rule—a policy requiring minority interviews for NFL coaching hires—violates Florida law against race-based hiring.
    • “You cannot discriminate against people based on the color of their skin, based on race, when it comes to hiring and advancement.” (03:11)
  • He’s requested the NFL respond by May 1 to remove the rule or face legal action.
    • “If they don’t do it, then, you know, we’ll pursue formal legal action in court.” (05:11)

• Implications for Merit and Fairness

  • Uthmeyer questions the message sent to minorities:
    • “What does this rule say to minority candidates that are getting jobs on merit? How do they know if they’re being hired in advance because they deserve it and not because of some other legal technicality?” (05:11)

2. Alligator Alcatraz and Crime Trends in Florida

• The controversial “Alligator Alcatraz” detention facility remains operational, mainly used for serious offenders and deportations.
  • “A lot of these people…served time or were charged with some of the most heinous offences: murder, attempted murder, sexual assault, abuse of children.” (06:53)
• Persistent crime hotspots remain in Democratic-leaning urban areas, with Uthmeyer criticizing local officials for leniency.
  • “They just, they do not take it seriously. We had a prosecutor in Orlando who stipulated to let a guy who attempted to murder somebody out on probation; only shortly thereafter, he shot and killed three tourists at Disney.” (08:56)
• Human trafficking in South Florida remains a priority, especially ahead of large events like the World Cup.

3. Federal-State Cooperation on Law Enforcement

• Uthmeyer praises federal agencies (FBI, Homeland Security, US Marshals) under the Trump administration for close collaboration, especially on child rescue and trafficking cases.
  • “We rescued almost 400 missing kids in the last year, and the US Marshals have been a fantastic partner in that operation.” (10:42)

4. Social Media, Crime, and Public Image

• High-profile viral incidents (like influencers shooting alligators) are prosecuted without celebrity exceptions.
  • “If you break the law here in Florida, there’s no exception for influencers or public media specialists.” (12:10)
• Clarifies hunting laws: “Shooting alligators without the proper tags…is a crime.” (13:03)

5. Attorney General’s Personal Insights and Political Race

• Uthmeyer, a former Florida Gator athlete, remains optimistic about Florida sports programs.
• On his Trump endorsement and campaign: “As a longtime staffer…It was an honor to be Governor DeSantis Chief of Staff…Now to be a candidate…I’m out there fighting the fight.” (15:01)

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6. U.S.-Iran Conflict & The Strait of Hormuz: An Intelligence Perspective

Guest: Mike Baker, Former CIA Covert Operations Officer, Host of the PDB Podcast

• Current Crisis & Strategic Oversight

  • Baker critiques U.S. strategic planning in response to Iran’s leveraging of the Strait of Hormuz.
    • “I’m a little concerned that we now seem to be in reactive mode as opposed to...knowing that this was going to happen.” (21:23)
    • “We should have seen that the Strait would be the leverage point.” (21:23)
    • Memorable phrase: “The Iranian regime was, well, deserving of a serious ass-kicking.” (21:23)

• Boots on the Ground?

  • Deployments are already significant; further escalation would be complex, costly, and non-permanent:
    • “It doesn’t take much for the Iranian regime…to create this mess.” (23:55)
    • “You can create an environment where you could allow for...safe passage of vessels. But…how long are we talking about? You can’t run that indefinitely.” (23:55)

• No Immediate Regime Change

  • “Regime change, that’s just not happening.” (27:00)
  • The IRGC hardliners are now firmly in control; the best likely outcome is a negotiated deal.
    • “There’s no sign of a serious fracture inside that regime at this point…” (28:13)
    • “Every administration’s been putting lipstick on this pig for decades…” (28:13)

• U.S.-Israel Strategic Split

  • Israel aims for regime change; the U.S. may settle for degrading Iran’s military:
    • “Israel…has looked at this as a regime change operation…But for them, a success is getting rid of this regime.” (30:10)

• Political Implications—U.S. Midterms

  • Rising fuel prices and drawn-out conflict could hurt Republicans.
    • “I filled up my truck yesterday, $102…Their Republicans are going to get an ass kicking in the midterms.” (22:46)
    • “Unless those prices come down, I think there’s a real problem.” (33:23)
  • Only true regime change and regional stabilization would shift outcomes.
    • “If there is somehow a regime change...could actually mitigate some of the midterm losses…Otherwise, kitchen table issues…are the deciding factors.” (32:16)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Uthmeyer on Law Enforcement:

  • “It’s not hard. It’s not rocket science. You enforce the law.” (01:19)

• Uthmeyer on ‘Crimamaxing’ & Social Media:

  • “There’s no exception for influencers…You break the law, you’re going to pay for it.” (12:10)

• Mike Baker on the Strait of Hormuz:

  • “You can believe that the Iranian regime was, well, deserving of a serious ass-kicking. But you can also believe…this was going to come down to the Strait…” (21:23)

• Mike Baker on Regime Change:

  • “I would love to see that regime go…But I’m just talking from an operational, pragmatic perspective. This is messy. This is really problematic…” (27:04)

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Important Timestamps

• [01:19] – Uthmeyer on crime reduction and law enforcement success
• [03:11] – Civil Rights, Rooney Rule, and legal issues with the NFL
• [06:53] – Alligator Alcatraz facility and serious crime
• [10:42] – Federal–state cooperation, child rescue, and Biden vs. Trump DOJ
• [12:10] – Social media crimes and legal accountability for influencers
• [13:03] – State hunting law clarification
• [15:01] – Uthmeyer’s campaign perspectives and resume
• [21:23] – Mike Baker on Strait of Hormuz escalation and U.S. response
• [23:55] – Military deployments and limits of force projection
• [27:00] – Regime change prospects in Iran
• [30:10] – U.S. vs. Israel objectives in Iran conflict
• [32:16] – Baker on political fallout and midterm impacts

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Speaker Attribution and Tone

The hosts maintain their signature blend of frank, sometimes humorous, discussion while drawing out detailed insights from both guests. Uthmeyer speaks with the steady authority of a state official and loyal Floridian, sometimes offering a partisan critique. Baker’s tone is pragmatic and analytical, mixing defense-world realpolitik with salty authenticity and a willingness to challenge administration narratives.

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Wrap-up

This episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show delivers a split-focus hour: Florida’s political battlegrounds and policy controversies in the first half, then a strategic breakdown of the Iran crisis in the second. Notable for candid, sometimes biting analysis from both Uthmeyer and Baker, the show offers listeners sharp takes on law enforcement realities and the complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics—punctuated by the hosts’ trademark banter and audience engagement.

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Transcript

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[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

voidwork prohibited by law 21 plus terms and conditions apply.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Welcome in everybody. Third hour of the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton show gets going. Right now we are joined by the Florida State Attorney General, James Boothmeyer AG Uthmeyer. Attorney General, appreciate you making time for us today from the great state of Florida, my home state. Love this place. Love the way that this whole state is trending. Thank you for all of your work on the law enforcement side. Clay has some specific questions we want to get to here in a second. I just wanted to know. Talk to me about some of the, the tr. The trends, the top priorities. What are you doing from a law enforcement perspective under your tenure here in Florida? Because it feels like the state is overall really, really cooking.

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

Yeah, we're look, we're prosecuting, we're enforcing law and order, we're putting bad guys away and our crime rates continue to go way, way down. You know, when I took office, Florida was already at record crime lows. But the topic of fentanyl was coming up. Every time I talked to sheriffs, it was surging in the communities across the state. Now, just over a year later, our fentanyl death rate is down over 35%. Our fentanyl cases are down almost 60%. Crime continues to plummet. Because we figured it out here. We support law enforcement. We give them the tools to be successful. We support the federal government with their efforts, especially on illegal immigration. It's not hard. It's not rocket science. You enforce the law.

[Clay Travis]

James, appreciate you coming on with us. I think the last time we saw you was at the Indiana Miami game for the national title. Bucks only college football game of the year. So not a bad one to go to. But a lot of the guys that were playing on the field there are going to aspire to go into the NFL one day. Um, and one of the NFL's signature, I would say, sort of social compacts has been the Rooney Rule. And for people who don't know, out there you can kind of dive into the Rooney Rule a bit, but I'll give a kind of a rough approximation here. Basically, the NFL requires that minorities be interviewed before new coaches can be hired. And that rule has been in place for around 20 years. There are three NFL teams in the state of Florida. One in Tampa Bay, one in Jacksonville, one in Miami, as most of our listeners would know. And you have now issued guidance that the Rooney Rule potentially is going to be violating the Florida civil rights statutes. Explain for us why that's significant and what your letter said.

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

Sure. Well, the Rooney Rule, which has been around for a good little while, it requires NFL teams to interview a number of minority candidates before hiring non minority candidates. It requires some assistant coaching positions to be filled by minorities or women. It actually goes so far as to say if you have minorities, you know, that advance into higher coaching positions from your staff, there's a scenario where you can be awarded additional draft picks. So teams are clearly required to violate Florida law. We have a Civil Rights act that's been on the books for decades. You cannot discriminate against people based on the color of their skin, based on race, when it comes to hiring and advancement. You know, a lot of states are looking at DEI and the problems associated with it. Some states are passing new laws, but the reality is we don't really need to. Most every state has a long standing Civil Rights Act. I think the civil rights movement did some wonderful things to ensure that the rights, the benefits of our constitution are being afforded to all people equally. And today, you know, we've seen the pendulum swing so far where people are being discriminated against because they're white. So look, fans at home, they're not, you know, wanting teams to hire people based on color. They care about the color of the jersey of their team. They want to see their team win. They don't care what race is winning. They want to see people, you know, hired and promoted based on merit.

[Clay Travis]

So what do you expect to happen based on this letter? And by the way, I think you're 100% right on the law. I've been one of the few people who's been pointing out for some time that this flies in the face of, I think, not only a lot of state law, but federal law. Given that roughly a third of NFL teams are based in the state of Florida. What's the, what have you asked the NFL to do and what do you anticipate going forward?

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

Well, I've asked the NFL to get back to me by May 1, so a little over a month away and confirm that they're going to remove this rule, remove these requirements that are unlawful here in Florida. And I believe many other states, if they don't do it, then, you know, we'll pursue formal legal action in court. But I'm a big believer in trying to work things out, talk things out. Hopefully they'll do a deep dive and realize that their policy is indeed illegal. And look, you know, if minorities are getting jobs and doing well, performing well, I am all for it. I could not be happier. But what does this rule say to minority candidates that are getting jobs on merit? How do they know if they're being hired in advance because they deserve it and not because of some other legal technicality? So when I, when I took this job, I told my team, we're going to do the right thing no matter what, we're going to do the right thing even if it brings negative press and costs us something. And this is one one of those examples where this violates the law and we got to do the right thing.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Speaking to Florida Attorney General Uth Meyer and Mr. Attorney General, you have obviously been involved with the Alligator Alcatraz situation here in this state. It's got a lot of national attention. We talked about it. What is the status of that detention facility and how would you say the cooperation level is going with federal authorities for, for lawful deportations to be occurring at the pace that the administration is seeking?

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

Well, Alligator Alcatraz is still up and running. You know, the media doesn't talk about it anymore after they, you know, helped incentivize and promote a bunch of sham lawsuits that were all struck down. So it's been operating every, never, never once was closed down, despite some reports. And I'll tell you, it, you know, I understand the name, it gets some attention, gets a chuckle. But the reality is the location was important money on some new perimeter. This 32 square mile of Runway, which is a non public use airport for law enforcement training. It was abandoned for commercial use back in the 60s or 70s. It's got a two and a half mile Runway. So when it comes to deportation flights, people can get bused there. You know, they can't really escape. If they do, there's nowhere to go. And then there's an easy one way out flight to get them back to where they came from. I'll tell you, I've looked at the roster of people that have been housed there going back to the beginning. And a lot of these people, they serve time or were charged with some of the most heinous offences, murder, attempted murder, sexual assault, abuse of children. The media never talked about that. They acted like this place was inhumane, but they did not highlight, you know, the victims out there that suffered greatly at the hands of some of these people that never should have been. You mentioned that the overall, like Minnesota

[Clay Travis]

here, you mentioned that the overall crime rates have been declining precipitously in Florida. And I know we have a lot of Floridians who would be very happy with that. Where can you do better? Are there parts of the state that still have too high of a crime rate? How much? You know, we've, we've talked in Memphis, for example, where I live in Tennessee. The mayor of Memphis has been somewhat willing to work with the Trump administration. How much are Democrat mayors fighting you on some of these things? Where do you think the state of Florida can still improve when it comes to trying to tamp down on crime?

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

Yeah, well, you hit the nail on the head. Our crime rates are not where they should be in areas like Broward County, Orange county, that's Orlando. And these are areas where we have Democrat officials in charge. They just, they do not take it seriously. We had a prosecutor in Orlando who stipulated to let a guy who attempted to murder somebody out on probation only we're shortly thereafter, he shot and killed three tourists at Disney just a couple months ago. This stuff cannot happen. We're fighting this epidemic across the country. We need to lock bad people up for a while. One area in Florida we still have to address, human trafficking is a big deal, especially in South Florida. It's the third highest trafficked area in the country because of the wealth, the international presence, the entertainment. So I've made it a big initiative working with our prosecutors and local law enforcement. There's going into World Cup, FIFA, going into F1. We're going to be all hands on deck to stop this predatory practice that's very, very criminal.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Is there any specific outreach or connectivity with the Trump White House on, you know, you haven't had the situation of national focus that, say, D.C. has had or we mentioned Memphis before. And I know we're talking statewide now with Florida, but with any city here, it hasn't come up in that conversation of there's an emergency like Memphis, like Chicago, like D.C. of persistent crime numbers that are too high and don't come down. But is there some federal working with you or working with state authorities to help in an area like Orlando, for example, or are those resources not really needed at this point the way they are in some of those other cities.

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

Now, this federal government has been fantastic. Everything from the FBI to Homeland Security to the marshals. You know, we rescued almost 400 missing kids in the last year, and the US Marshals have been a fantastic partner in that operation. You know, we had some cases where we were not getting help under the Biden administration. We had a trafficking case where a guy had molested and trafficked children, and we couldn't get DOJ under Biden to take it seriously. And within a year, we've locked somebody up for the rest of his life because we had a federal government that shared evidence and supported us. And that that example is not isolated. It goes across the board. So we take advantage of it. We're very blessed.

[Clay Travis]

James, there is a video, and I know you may not want to comment on a specific case, but I'm sure that your team has seen it, of a famous online influencer shooting alligators. Allegedly. What is the rule on something like that? And how often nowadays do people begin to investigate crimes? Sometimes, maybe even. It's often based on social media posts.

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

Yeah, well, look, in that case, what I'll say is, I know local law enforcement is already engaged. They were right away. The Fish and Wildlife Commission has certainly seen the video and is investigating as well.

[Clay Travis]

My.

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

You know, the head of my communications team, Jeremy, he told me I need to go ahead and announce that I recommend against crimamaxing in Florida. And I don't even know what that means, which means I'm not as plugged into the social media sphere as some. But the reality is, when you want to do stupid things to get attention, you know, if you break the law here in Florida, there's no exception for influencers or public media specialists. You break the law, you're going to pay for it. So we're going to look at this, and if there's criminal activity, which, you know, seems somewhat apparent based on first glance, there will be serious repercussions.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Just to follow up on Clay's question, shooting it, and I know that it's allegations, video outside of the facts of that case, that everyone can see that everyone's seen the videos online. Just as a matter of law, shooting an alligator is very much illegal in this state. Right.

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

Yeah. You know, we've got licensing programs for. For alligators and turkeys and deer and, you know, anything you want to go on hunt, you can't just go out and start shooting animals, shooting alligators without the proper tags. So, yes, it is a crime.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Right. Yeah.

[Clay Travis]

I didn't know you this is much less serious than that. I didn't realize you were a national champion Florida Gator athlete. My team just told me about this, that you ran for the Florida Gators. What did you think of the loss to Iowa for the defending Florida Gator national champs? And what do you think of the new football hire? Buck's wife is a Florida Gator grad as well. What can you tell us as a former athlete with the Gators about the status and stature of the Florida Gator athletic programs right now?

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

Well, our athletic program is always one of, if not the best in the country. We get the all sports awards very frequently. You know, the lesser known sports, you know, tennis, lacrosse, baseball, distance running, track, you know, we've always had top national teams. The football team, it's, you know, it's had its struggles of late. You know, I was there for the whole Tebow era and it seems like yesterday, but I guess I'm getting older. We'll be back one way or another. The basketball loss was heartbreaking. You know, I do think that team had even more talent than the team the year before. And you know, in the March Madness, things have to drop your way. And you know, we, we didn't get some of the lucky bounces, some of the penalty calls. We didn't have the, the hoops dropping where we needed them. But I think a lot of that team's going to be back. So I'm very optimistic. I think we've got a good coach, a good team. We'll be ready for next year.

[Clay Travis]

You are also endorsed by Trump and on the ballot this year. For people who don't know, how can they go find out about your race and, and support you because I think you've done a really good job.

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

Well, I appreciate it. You know, people hopefully are seeing me out there. I've done the job as much as I can. You know, as a longtime staffer that focused on policy, it was an Honor to be Governor DeSantis Chief of Staff for almost four years and to be part of the, you know, the great policies on public safety, education, school choice, you name it over the last few years. It's weird now to be a candidate and be forward facing, but I'm out there fighting the fight. I'm going to support law enforcement. I'm going to do everything I can to put bad guys away. The people at home hopefully, you know, have seen that or will see it. If you want to learn more, you can visit James for fl. Com. I'm on social media everywhere. I love good ideas. If there's a wrong we need to address in Florida, I'm ready to do it, no matter who it's going to take off.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Well, I live here and you've done a great job as attorney general for the years that I've lived here, Mr. A.G. meyer. So thank you so much. Appreciate you being with us.

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

All right.

[Clay Travis]

I think we might be speechless after that.

[Buck Sexton]

After that.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

High five. Yeah.

[Clay Travis]

He has done a great job. Look all over the country of Israel right now. It is incredibly difficult for so many people out there to deal with the challenges of the constant missiles, of the constant drone strikes. And as a result, there are a ton of people that are constantly finding themselves in bomb shelters. You know, the International Fellowship of Christians and Jews is one of the top locations out there for providing bomb shelters to so many different people of all different backgrounds in Israel. They also provide food and emergency supplies and they care for the elderly, including Holocaust survivors. Right now, people of Israel need your help. You can join both Buck and myself in helping those in need@the IFCJ. IFCJ.org that's the international Fellowship of Christians and Jews. You can also call 888-488-IFCJ. That's ifcj.org 888-488-IFCj.

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[Clay Travis]

Welcome back in clay Travis Buck Sexton show. We'll take back. Take some of your calls as we continue to roll through the program. Get to some of your talkbacks. Mike Baker gonna join us, Buck. He's a former CIA analyst. You can correct me if I'm wrong.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

And no, no, no, no. Oh, no, no, oh, no, no. Oh, no, no. Mike's gonna come on. He's gonna have to throw an elbow on that one. He's a he's a former case officer. I'm an analyst.

[Buck Sexton]

Oh.

[Clay Travis]

I used to walk around, like, totally wrong. That's pretty. For the, for the civilians.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

It's CIA land, Clay. It's like, it's like you just confused somebody who was on the football team with being a member of the marching band. Like they considered, you know, they get very uppity about this stuff. Like I was there, like, with the trombone and Mike is like, hey, I'll sign the football for you after the game, honey.

[Clay Travis]

We will talk with him, who's much more of a bad ass than I was giving him credit for, on the backside about the situation in Iran, on the ground. Everything else I want to tell you. Sweet 16 and major league Baseball coming back this weekend. My Atlanta Braves are back on the field after a long off season. And my University of Tennessee Volunteers are going head to head with Iowa State tonight. It's going to be a fun day of sports. If you love sports like I do and you want to be involved in all 50 states, you can play along with our friends at prize picks. You give them $5, they will put $50 deposited into your account. That's prizepix.com code clay c l a y. $5 turns into $50 automatically. You can play it in Florida, you can play it in Georgia, Texas, California, New York, wherever you are across the nation, you will love it. Prizepix.com Code Clay. That is pricepicks.com Code 6. Clay.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Welcome back into Clay and Buck, my CIA brother from another mother joins us now. Mike Baker, retired CIA covert operations officer specializing in counterterrorism, counter narcotics, counterinsurgency operations. A lot of counters. And you know what you don't have in there? Analyst. You don't have analysts in there, Mike. Which, don't worry, I didn't let Clay get away with such. Such crazy smears as to call you an analyst.

[Clay Travis]

I thought I was giving him a compliment.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

You never wore a pocket protector. You didn't have a. You didn't have to return from the war zone because of a runny nose.

[Buck Sexton]

I like how you said that.

[Clay Travis]

We get uppity about it.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Oh, no, you guys definitely get. You guys definitely get uppity about it. Mike, let's be honest. Let's be honest. If an analyst ever, ever messed up

[Buck Sexton]

on that, we can, we can be a little bit up our own asses, that's for sure. So you're right. We, we can, we can take offense easily.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

So we had, we had a woman call in. I don't know if you know about. This is amazing, caller. Linda came up with the idea. We think. Well, she came up with the idea and we think it made it all the way to the White House to put ice in the airports. And that's been amazing. And we said maybe she can call in and fix the Strait of Hormuz. She hasn't called back with that one yet. So I'm going to put this to you. You're a former CIA covert operations officer. Fix the Strait of Hormuz, fix the Iran war. What do you see going on? By the way, Mike also hosts the wildly successful PDB podcast which all of you should go check out. But Mike, fix the straight of horror movies. Fix Iran. What's happening?

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah, well, I, you know what, I'm with Linda. Let's send ice out to the Strait. See, See what happens. Look, this is, this is the problem here. You can, you can believe contradictory things at the same time, right? Multiple things can be true. So you can believe that the Iranian regime was, well, deserving of a serious ass kissing, ass kicking. But you can also believe that we should have seen that the Strait would be the leverage point, right? That it would all come down to the straight of horror moves. Because we've seen this before, right? And they've done this before. They've created chaos in the Strait when they've, you know, felt threatened or they're trying to make a point or they're looking for negotiation tactics. They've threatened to close the Strait for decades. So while I fully support this military operation to massively degrade the military capabilities of Iran, I'm a little concerned that it seems like we perhaps didn't think through what, oh, admittedly in hindsight, but I think it was clear before that this, it was going to come down to this, right. That we should have had scenarios in place already that would then say if this happens, which it was going to happen because the Iranian military can't go toe to toe with, with the US And Israeli militaries. This was the only direction they could go to impact the, the, the situation and to try to extract concessions. So I'm a little concerned that we now seem to be in reactive mode as opposed to, you know, pulling the playbook off the shelf, knowing that this was going to happen. And look, I filled up my truck yesterday, $102. It's untenable from a political perspective. Their Republicans are going to get an ass kicking in the midterms.

[Clay Travis]

Okay? So at this point in time, we are where we are. Would there be any benefit to putting any boots on the ground in the Strait of Hormuz related area from your perspective, analyzing that situation, because there's been a lot of talk about taking Carg island, potentially putting guys and gals potentially in the straight up Hormuz area where we could control ingress and egress more. So smart is it then becoming even more of a mess? How would you assess that if you were asked by the President?

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah, well, look, they've, I think they've already tried to cover their potential options. They put out two Marine Expeditionary Units, about 2,500 soldiers each and a couple thousand sailors to support. They've got the 82nd Airborne sending out its elements. Got a lot of assets out there. And the problem is this. It doesn't take much for the Iranian regime as it exists now, even after having its leadership decimated, to create this mess. So if you're talking about taking a handful of islands and it's not just the strait, we talk about the strait all the time. But the Iranians have created trouble in the Gulf, right. And so their reach is pretty significant. They've got a massive coastline. And so if you're talking about, you know, a seize and occupy operation with these assault forces and you're talking then about, you have to combine that with this international naval force that the President's been talking about, which a number of allies are somewhat reluctant to join in on while there's still fighting going on, that's well and good. You can create an environment where you could allow for it would be slow but safe passage of vessels. But you've got the threat still. You're talking. So it's not in any way a long term fix. And you've got to create an environment where the shipping and insurance industries feel comfortable enough to get back to business. So when you talk about seizing some territory or you talk about using this international naval force, how long are we talking about? Right. You can't run that indefinitely. And so I'm not sure where they're going. I suspect the President is really working hard to try to find a way to cut a deal that means making some concessions to the Iranians. That's not going to be very popular.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Speaking of Mike Baker, host of the PDB podcast and Mike, you're, you're bringing, I think a, a seasoned and somewhat salty but in a good way perspective to the situation because war is hell and it is certainly complicated and the enemy gets a vote as well. And all this, it sounds to me like your sense of this. And by the way, this is great because we've had people asking us to have on more conservative voices who are educated on these things, which you certainly are, who are, you know, more critical, maybe a little more skeptical, however you want to position it about some of the President's military action in Iran. So I think you're bringing that interesting or that necessary perspective into the conversation. It sounds like I've thought this way too, by the way, for a while now. And I just want to make sure that this is where you are. Regime change, that's just not happening. Is that, is that how you see it? Like we're, we're going to be negotiating with some form of this regime and that's the way this is going to play out?

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah, yeah. Look, I would love, I would love to see regime change.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Right?

[Buck Sexton]

You're never going to have anything resembling long term peace and stability in that region or a better, more prosperous, more opportune life for those people in Iran with that regime in place, in whatever form. And it certainly looks like the hardliners have, you know, cemented their position, the IRGC in particular. Right. They've pushed that political group, Masood Pazeche and all the others to the side. I don't even think the clerics really are, are, you know, in, in a position of authority. I think they realize, okay, from an optic in the narrative position, sure, it's still a theocracy. The IRGC is running that show. And so you've got to find somebody to have a discussion with. But I would love to see that regime go. There's no doubt about it. Like I said, they have deserved this ass kicking for a long time. But I'm just talking from an operational, pragmatic perspective. This is messy. This is, this is really problematic because again, it does not take much to do what they're doing with this strait of Hormuz and disrupting global energy markets and supplies.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Right?

[Buck Sexton]

Because you're dealing with, you've got to convince the commercial sector, you've got to convince the insurers and the shippers that it's safe to do this. And I refuse to think that the US Is going to wrap itself into a long term indefinite position out there. And so then you have to look at what few options you've got. And that comes down to, can we find somebody who can cut a deal within the Iranian leadership as it exists and you know, then call it good? But what does that do? Essentially, every administration's been putting lipstick on his pig for decades hoping that the next administration would find, let them deal with it. So I'm glad that we have significantly degraded the military capabilities of Iran. I think what we've done is we've kicked the can much further down the road than it's been kicked in the past. And so you call that a success and then you move on. But the problem is the Iranian regime, if it's still there and there's no sign of a serious fracture inside that regime at this point, if it remains, you know, they're looking for some concessions in order to cut that deal. And then they've always got this potential for them to take the international community hostage again by just a little bit of disruption in that area.

[Clay Travis]

To what extent do you think there's likely to be a full divergence in perspectives between the United States and Israel? In other words, could Trump declare victory, say the United States component aspects of this mission are complete and then Israel continues because they're still going to have air superiority. I would expect this mission, so long as they desire to do so on their own. How unified do you think this mission will be in the months ahead?

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah, I think you've pointed to the key difference between Washington and Jerusalem, which is Netanyahu and Israel. They have looked at this as a regime change operation. Right. Of course, they wanted, they wanted to degrade that missile program as much as possible. But for them, a success is, is getting rid of this regime. And I think that was, you know, a hoped for result from the US Side, but not the primary objective. So that's a, that's a problem. I don't think if the U.S. you know, declares victory and figures out how to get out of it, that I don't think Israel will continue their efforts in Iran. Right. They'll be focused on Hezbollah and, you know, some of their ground operations in southern Lebanon.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Mike, I think, I think you have some. I'm sorry, go ahead.

[Buck Sexton]

Oh, no, no. I was going to say we may likely see the map. Read on. Where they end up occupying sort of that, that turf south of the Latani river, which would be. That's a significant change.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Mike, just one more thing for you before we got to close out into a break. And Mike hosts the PDB podcast. You can all go check out where he covers a lot of national security political issues Every, every episode. Mike, the. You said the midterms you're worried about. You're not alone there. I just think that historically speaking, if you look at what generally happens, Republicans probably are going to lose control again. People don't yell at me. And everything else I could be wrong, but historically speaking, this is the trend, Right. You're worried it could be a little worse than that. Or rather, it could be. It sounds like it could be something of a. Of a wave in the House that goes against Trump because of this Iran situation. Do you feel like that's now baked in? Or if Trump off ramps, effectively declares victory, gets some kind of a cessation of hostilities with the Iranian regime, Hormuz opens up. Do you think people will forget about this and it'll be more of those kitchen table issues that usually are the deciding factors in a midterm?

[Buck Sexton]

Yeah, I mean, I think. Look, I think if the best result would be if there is somehow a regime change.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Right.

[Buck Sexton]

If there's just conversations going on that we don't know about and that there's some top commanders in IRGC that have said, fine, we're done. This is ridiculous, because they're not ideologues for whatever reason, and they provide top cover for the people of Iran then to come out in the streets and not be slaughtered, as they were in the past by the internal security apparatus. That's a great result. I think that could actually mitigate some of the midterm losses and could actually be such a win in terms of a sea change in the Middle east that the Republicans could hold the House. Other than that, you know, I'm no different than everybody else. You know, I go into the fuel pump and paying, you know, that much more money for gas. It depends on where that price is. You know, if. If they can get a resolution back out, the global markets stabilize, you know, the. The. They calm. That everybody drops.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

The.

[Buck Sexton]

The angst and the prices drop, then. Sure.

[Clay Travis]

Yeah.

[Buck Sexton]

But I do think, historically, as you pointed out, typically, you know, it's not going to go well in the midterms anyway, but unless those prices come down, I think there's a real problem.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Mike Baker. Hey, Mike. Appreciate you, and thank you for being here, as always with us. And come back soon. I will talk to you more about this stuff as it. As it unfolds.

[Buck Sexton]

Absolutely. Thanks, guys. I appreciate you. Yeah.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

And I won't let Clay call you an analyst. I promise he's not gonna pull any of that crap on my watch.

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

All right.

[Buck Sexton]

You know.

[James Uthmeyer (Florida State Attorney General)]

All right.

[Buck Sexton]

I was. The bottom line was I was never smart enough to be an analyst, so.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Well, I was about to say. I was gonna say your analysis just now was really good. We could have used you back in the day. Iraq conference room. So thank you, Mike. Good to see you. All right. There's no shortage of smart investors in this audience. I wouldn't have to look to find more than one listener that purchased gold many years ago, like 20 or so years ago. Who hasn't? Who has benefited from a great increase in gold's value? A 750% increase. That's right. Over 20 years, gold has increased about 750%. Gold's value just in 2025 shot up over 65%. And a lot of very smart analysts believe gold is going to continue to go up in value because of global instability, like the Strait of Hormuz, for example. Money printing the debt. Gold, my friends, makes sense. And Birch Gold Group can help you not only get gold or silver sent to your home, but Birch Gold Group can help you convert an existing IRA or 401k into an IRA in gold. I just like working with Birch Gold Group. They're very straightforward, very on it, and I think you will too. Text my name Buck to 9,898 98 to receive your free info kit on gold. There's no obligation, just useful information. Text my name buck to the number 989898 text B U C K to 989898 keep up with the biggest political

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comeback in world history on the Team 47 podcast Clay and Buck highlight Trump replacement place from the week Sundays at noon Eastern. Find it on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Clay Travis]

Welcome back in Clay Travis Buck Sexton show a news President Trump has signed an executive order to pay all the TSA agents the past and going forward so that has occurred. We'll see whether or not Democrats challenge his authority to do so and we have a bunch of talk backs. I want to get to as many of those as as we can. Let's see. Let's go to H. Anthony and Brooklyn with some high heat to take us into the weekend.

[Caller - Cat Person]

Listen guys, you're spoken as true dog people. I'm a cat person Cats are actually more loving than dogs. And if the cat loves you and they don't give their affections lightly, that is high praise indeed. A dog is the pack animal. A cat considers himself or itself unequal to you.

[Clay Travis]

Ah, cat versus dogs. We got a big battle there. I'm gonna go with dogs are way more loving. Ken in Lincoln, Nebraska, with the absolute worst argument in the history of the show. Perhaps listen to K. Clay Buck.

[Caller - Ken from Lincoln]

Good show. Good having Jesse on. Clay, you're lost. This is Ken from Lincoln. You are so lost. The only thing good about Chick Fil a is that their sauce, their meat, it is juicy, but there's no flavor to it. Red Lobster all day long. All day long over Chick Fil a.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

Dude, Cam, we love you, man. But I mean, I, I, I could only eat the grilled nuggets that I think the grilled nuggets are delicious. At Chick Fil a. I think that's rough take from Ken.

[Clay Travis]

Worst argument of all time that Chick Fil a sandwiches have no flavor. Chris in Franklinton, North Carolina, cut l

[Caller - Chris from Franklinton]

barbecue potato chips in ice cream. Sounds disgusting. And I don't know what that guy's talking about. Real Americans and flavor, because Brussels sprouts are amazing when they're cooked right, seasoned right. I don't know what he's talking. Nice steak with some Brussels sprouts and mashed potatoes. That's almost perfection.

[Show Host / Interviewer]

I'm going to give a little bit of backup to Jesse on this, actually, on the Brussels sprouts. Never mind the whispering angel Clay. If they're not fried Brussels sprouts, kind of gross.