The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: Hour 3 – Nerding Out With Ryan

Air Date: September 25, 2025
Guest: Ryan Girdusky (Host, "It's a Numbers Game")
Main Theme:
An in-depth, data-driven look at pivotal state and city political races, focusing on emerging trends, campaign strategies, and the impacts of key issues—especially in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City.

Overview

In this episode, Clay Travis and Buck Sexton host political data analyst Ryan Girdusky for a deep dive ("nerding out") on the numbers behind the most closely watched upcoming elections, including the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races and the New York City mayor's race. The discussion covers shifting demographics, campaign strategies, critical local issues (with a surprising focus on electricity prices), and how certain outcomes could ripple far beyond their states. The hour is packed with numbers, campaign stories, sharp commentary, and a lively Q&A from listeners.

Key Discussion Points by Segment

1. New Jersey Gubernatorial Race – Tightening Numbers & Demographic Shifts

[03:02-06:05]

• Republican Momentum:
  • Despite an initial 860k voter registration advantage for Democrats, that lead is narrowing; since 2021, Republicans INCREASED registrations by 162k, while Democrats dropped 47k.
  • Quote: “Republicans in the last four years... have gained 162,000 new voters, while Democrats have lost 47,000 voters…Cittarelli lost by only 84,000 votes.” — Ryan [03:57]
• Polling Breakdown:
  • Most recent polls favor Democrat Mikie Sherrill by ~5.5 points, but newer, more credible polls show a dead heat or a slight Cittarelli lead, especially among independents.
    • Emerson poll: Race tied; Cittarelli leads independents by 26 points.
• Problem for Democrats:
  • Minority and urban voters show limited enthusiasm for Sherrill, partly due to dissatisfaction with her background and a scandal over stock trades.
  • Democrats are spending heavily ($25m so far) in a state that's very much in play.

2. Comparing Virginia and New Jersey: Campaign Strategies & Key Issues

[06:05-09:36]

• Who’s Running on What?
  • Virginia GOP (Winsome Sears): Nationalizes the campaign, hammering on trans issues in sports.
  • New Jersey Dem (Sherrill): Nationalizes with anti-Trump messaging, recently marred by a Naval Academy cheating scandal.
  • Cittarelli (NJ GOP): Focused on affordability and the cost of living, especially electricity.
  • Different dynamics: Virginia’s less “elastic” (less swing), more urban/race-based voting blocks; New Jersey's campaign is more “Youngkin-style” (focused on kitchen-table issues).
• Quote: “Everything that is breaking in someone’s favor is Cittarelli.” — Ryan [09:12]

3. Skyrocketing Electricity Prices — Unlikely Top Issue in VA & NJ

[09:36-12:09]

• Data Center Boom:
  • In VA, data centers use a quarter of all electricity.
  • In NJ, they account for 70% of the price increase.
  • GOP focuses on traditional energy and tax relief; Dems suggest alternatives but aren’t resonating.
• Quote: “Jack Cittarelli is talking about having tax cuts for the middle class and… natural gas subsidies… to get prices lower.” — Ryan [10:26]
• Electoral Impact:
  • Electricity costs are the local issue.
  • Campaigns are differing in how they’re leveraging this, with varied success attracting new/low-propensity voters.

4. New York City Mayoral Race – fractured field, national consequences

[12:09-14:18]

• Crowded Race, Progressive Front-Runner:
  • 87% betting market favorite is Mamdani; Cuomo and Adams splitting anti-Mamdani votes.
  • Polls show Cuomo could make it competitive if head-to-head, but his campaign is seen as "god awful."
  • “All pollsters agree, a head to head competition between Cuomo and Mamdani shows a competitive race... Cuomo has run one of the most God awful campaigns I could imagine.” — Ryan [12:44]
• Impact Beyond NYC:
  • If elected, Mamdani becomes the progressive face of the Democratic Party—potentially shaping the national midterm narrative.
  • “Republicans desperately want to make him the face, which is why Hakeem Jeffries still won’t endorse him…” — Ryan [14:18]
• Can Mamdani deliver radical reforms?
  • Ryan: Some, but “he can’t fulfill half of those promises because he doesn’t have the ability or wherewithal to do so… I think he’s gonna be a worse mayor than Bill de Blasio.” [15:41]

5. Listener Interaction – NYC voters, betting markets, and political frustration

[21:22-27:43]

• Call-in from Odin, a Republican New Yorker, expressing frustration at the seeming inevitability of Mamdani’s win and the fracturing among anti-progressive candidates.
• Clay and Buck explain how betting markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) now serve as real-time barometers, showing Mamdani as a heavy favorite (87%) unless major candidates drop out.

6. National Politics Patterns — “Vague” Democrats & Accountability

[32:47-39:47]

• Discussion over Mikie Sherrill’s Naval Academy scandal (1994):
  • Clay: “That is basically 31 years ago.… I’m not judging them based on that, whether they’re a Democrat, Republican, or Independent.”
  • Buck: “They wouldn’t extend the same grace to our side.” [33:41-33:45]
• Critique of Dem campaign strategy—especially Abigail Spanberger (VA):
  • “When it comes close to election time… Democrats get very vague and very noncommittal and then hope the media can patch up the little holes...” — Clay [35:58]
• Audio of Spanberger dodging on trans issues in sports/locker rooms.
  • “This is actually the perfect answer, insofar as it is a series of emotions tied together with prepositions that says nothing.” — Clay [38:20]

7. Concluding Segment – Security in Schools

[45:50-46:55]

• Listener “Scuba Steve” suggests using retired veterans as in-school security, paid via tax relief.
  • Hosts supportive: “I think every school in America should have armed security to protect kids.” — Clay [46:55]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On polling and internal campaign anxiety:
  • “Democrats are freaked out… Internals showing she is not in a strong place.” — Ryan [05:44]
• On campaign styles:
  • “Cittarelli’s campaign in the last 45 days has reminded me more of Glenn Youngkin than Winsome Sears.” — Ryan [09:13]
• On Mamdani’s progressive ascent:
  • “It is not a question of IF like an AOC or Mamdani type will be the Democratic nominee in 2028; it’s a matter of WHEN.” — Ryan [14:18]
• On Spanberger’s answer:
  • “A series of emotions tied together with prepositions that says nothing.” — Clay [38:20]
• On political markets:
  • “If you think they’re wrong, then you can go in and you can take another side, just like you can in any sporting event.” — Clay [25:00]
• Playful banter:
  • “I think Odin’s throwing a bolt of lightning at you, Clay, so deal with it.” — Buck [24:43]
  • “That is such a nerdy analogy that I can’t help but respect it.” — Buck, responding to being compared to Loki [27:52]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Analysis: 03:02–06:05
• Nationalizing State Races: 06:05–09:36
• Electricity Prices in VA & NJ: 09:36–12:09
• NYC Mayoral Race Dynamics: 12:09–16:19
• Listener Q&A (Odin on NYC): 21:22–27:43
• Political Strategy & Candidate Accountability: 32:47–39:47
• School Security Proposal: 45:50–46:55

Tone & Style

The show balances serious number-driven analysis (via Ryan) with sharp, often lighthearted banter and a willingness to address nationwide frustration and skepticism about polls and media coverage. Clay and Buck maintain their signature style—irreverent, skeptical, and populist—while Ryan brings deep-dive political “nerd energy.”

For Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In

This episode provides a clear, numbers-based look at major 2025 political races with plenty of insight into why seemingly uncompetitive states (like New Jersey) are rapidly shifting, what’s at stake in the NYC mayoral race (with real implications for national politics), and why “boring” local issues like electricity costs can suddenly decide high-stakes contests. The extended listener call-in and Q&A segments also highlight grassroots frustrations and the skepticism many voters now feel toward traditional polling—and underscore how betting markets are now influencing political expectations.

Recommended Segment:
Start at 03:02 for Ryan’s comprehensive breakdown of New Jersey and Virginia, and listen through 16:19 to get the best of the "numbers game" discussion plus urban politics impact.

This summary skips all advertisements and sponsor messages, focusing on the episode’s substantive political analysis and memorable host-guest interactions.