Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show – Hour 3

Episode Theme:
Election 2025 Battlegrounds, Prediction Markets, and California's Political Future (with Steve Hilton)
Air Date: October 15, 2025
Notable Guest: Steve Hilton, Republican candidate for California Governor

Overview

In this episode, Clay Travis and Buck Sexton dive into key upcoming elections and the shifting political landscape in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York. They analyze polling, trends, and enthusiasm gaps with political data expert Ryan Girdusky. The second half centers on California, featuring a candid interview with gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton, who sharply critiques Democratic leadership and outlines his vision for reform. The hosts bring their trademark humor and directness, aiming to make sense of a turbulent election season.

Key Segments & Insights

1. The State of Local Elections: Virginia, New Jersey, and More

[03:32 – 14:42]

• Virginia Attorney General Race:

  • Republican Jason Miyares seeing a potential swing due to Democratic turmoil (J. Jones’s controversies and the Governor’s lukewarm support).
  • Ryan Girdusky: "Of all the races, we're seeing a big swing. It's that race in Virginia, the AG race." [05:32]

• Prediction/Gambling Markets:

  • Clay is “obsessed” with prediction markets but Ryan doesn’t rely on them, noting they're just aggregating widely available information.
  • Current betting markets reflect Democrat leads in most races, but Miyares is favored in the AG race.

• Enthusiasm Gaps & New Jersey Math:

  • Girdusky identifies a serious enthusiasm gap in New Jersey, especially among minorities in mail-in returns.
    • “There is a 10-point drop-off from majority white districts to majority minority districts.” [08:30]
  • GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli could win if this persists: “If he wins the independent vote by 15 to 20 points...he's going to win.” [10:26]

• House Control and Voting Rights Act:

  • Supreme Court could gut Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, potentially ending any immediate Democratic path to the House majority.
    • “If Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is struck down...it's almost mathematically impossible for Democrats to win the House.” [13:11]

2. The New York City Mayoral Race & Democrat Strategy

[14:42 – 17:29]

• Discussion about Cuomo’s underwhelming campaign and the persistent divide for Republicans citywide.
  • Girdusky: “You need Republicans to vote for you...Cuomo has every ability to win this race and it has tightened in Cuomo's favor...but he's got to give Republicans something.” [16:08]
  • On Cuomo's performance: “He just was in the right place where it's easy to sit there and win victories, especially when you have the last name that's a legacy and a dynasty in a certain particular place.” [16:19]

3. Pop Culture, Cancel Culture & Transgender Sports Debate

[22:24 – 25:32]

• Clay highlights a viral moment: Keira Knightley (playing Professor Umbridge for Harry Potter audiobooks) laughs off a question about boycotts over J.K. Rowling’s trans comments.
  • Knightley: “I think we’re all living in a period of time right now. We’re all going to have to figure out how to live together, aren’t we? And we’ve all got very different opinions. So I hope that we can all find respect.” [23:29]
• Clay interprets Knightley’s response as evidence that “people are over the BS even in Hollywood.” [24:02]

4. Steve Hilton Interview: California’s Future

[28:02 – 40:05]

The State of the Democratic Party in CA

• Steve Hilton details his experience with radical left-wing candidates and their “insane” positions.
  • “These California Democrats. Insane. The far left, still in control. People are sick of it here, and that’s why I’m running for governor.” [28:26]

Newsom's Leadership & Metrics

• Hilton skewers Newsom’s narrative:
  • “This total arrogance, entitlement, contempt for the truth, for the reality of people’s lives…They’ve had appliant media in California. They’re not used to being asked these kinds of questions...that’s going to be a very different story next year in the election.” [29:47]
  • Calls out Newsom’s use of "biggest" and "largest" claims due to CA’s size, not because of good governance:
    • “Actually...if you talk about the actual performance on any metric, we are not just doing badly, we’re doing the worst of all 50 states.” [30:34]

CA Wildfire Aftermath & Bureaucracy

• Cites Malibu disaster: “600 homes destroyed. The total number of permits issued for rebuilding—2. Literally 2.” [32:31]
• Attributes rebuilding failure to an “awful combination of far left ideology and incompetent governance.” [32:44]

Newsom’s Self-Promotion

• Playful roasting of Newsom: “He’s getting a little breathier, buttoning that shirt a little lower, slicking back that hair just a little tighter and he’s ready to look at all the folks of America and just tell them that, damn, he’s so handsome.” [25:32]

• Newsom’s own words:

  “I think there’s a California derangement syndrome...People are obsessed with focusing on what’s wrong with the state and not what’s right with the state...We dominate in every category. Name it.” [34:50]

• Hilton’s rebuttal:

  “Everything he says is a lie because it doesn’t reflect the truth about what it’s like here, which is that we are, on every metric that matters, the worst performing state in America.” [36:21]

CA Dems, Katie Porter, and 2025 Election

• Hilton not surprised at Katie Porter’s debate meltdown:
  • “The Democrat machine...this arrogant, entitled bunch of people who think that they’ve got the right to rule forever in California. How dare you ask me questions. How dare anyone think that they’re going to interrupt our control of this state.” [37:43]
  • On the top-two primary system: Porter v. Hilton likely but “the Democrat machine...is still run by Nancy Pelosi, who can’t stand Katie Porter...the rumor mill here was saying that they are looking for another candidate because they don’t control her.” [38:18]

Hilton’s Call to Action

“So many of the crazy far left insanity that’s been inflicted on the rest of the country starts in California. So help me beat it here.” [39:26]

Notable Quotes

• “Of all the races, we're seeing a big swing. It's that race in Virginia, the AG race.”
  — Ryan Girdusky [05:32]
• “If Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is struck down...it's almost mathematically impossible for Democrats to win the House.”
  — Ryan Girdusky [13:11]
• “These California Democrats. Insane. The far left, still in control. People are sick of it here, and that’s why I’m running for governor.”
  — Steve Hilton [28:26]
• “Actually...if you talk about the actual performance on any metric, we are not just doing badly, we’re doing the worst of all 50 states.”
  — Steve Hilton [30:34]
• “600 homes destroyed. The total number of permits issued for rebuilding—2. Literally 2.”
  — Steve Hilton [32:31]
• “Everything he says is a lie because it doesn’t reflect the truth about what it’s like here...”
  — Steve Hilton [36:21]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Virginia/New Jersey elections: [03:32 – 14:42]
• NYC mayoral race: [14:42 – 17:29]
• Cancel culture & Keira Knightley: [22:24 – 25:32]
• Steve Hilton Interview: [28:02 – 40:05]
• Gavin Newsom's stump speech & Hilton’s response: [34:50 – 36:57]
• Katie Porter discussion: [37:16 – 39:21]
• Hilton's campaign pitch: [39:26]

Memorable Moments

• Keira Knightley’s wry laughter and “can’t we all just get along?” answer to cancel culture questions—Clay calls it a shift in pop culture attitudes. [23:29]
• Steve Hilton’s dry humor recounting his shock:
  “As she was speaking, I saw myself on the little video green room. My jaw was dropping. And I kept thinking, she's not going to say that...and every time you thought, no way she's not going to say something so crazy, she said it.” [28:13]
• The Malibu rebuilding fiasco: “Malibu is the most egregious...600 homes destroyed. The total number of permits issued for rebuilding, 2. Literally 2.” [32:31]

Tone & Style

• Conversational and direct, with humor (“vegetable Joe” for Biden, mockery of Newsom’s appearance)
• Candid, often irreverent critique of establishment politics—especially targeting California's Democratic leadership
• Policy-heavy, with frequent discussion of polling, demographics, and downstream effects

Conclusion

This episode frames the 2025 election season as a pivotal moment, with California’s political direction in particular seen as a bellwether for national trends. From detailed polling analysis and tactical campaign insights to sharp critiques of left-wing governance, listeners gain both an insider’s playbook and a rallying cry for conservative activism.

To learn more about Steve Hilton’s campaign: SteveHilton4Governor.com