Hour 3 - What Should We Do About Iran?

Summary

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show – Hour 3: What Should We Do About Iran?

Date: January 12, 2026
Podcast Host: iHeartPodcasts
Hosts: Clay Travis & Buck Sexton

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Clay and Buck devote their final hour to the unfolding crisis in Iran. With massive anti-government protests erupting against the theocratic regime, the hosts discuss the historical context, the American response (or lack thereof), and invite Iranian-American callers to share their perspectives. They examine why the protests haven’t received significant coverage in U.S. mainstream media and on college campuses, debate what—if anything—the U.S. should do, and weigh the region’s possible future. The conversation is passionate, emotional, and broad-reaching, with input directly from the diaspora.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Significance of the Iran Protests

• Clay opens with a provocative question: Why have American college campuses, which have widely protested other international causes, largely ignored the anti-theocracy movement in Iran?
  • “Have you seen a single major campus protest in support of the Iranian protesters anywhere in America so far?... There hasn't been at least that I've seen any campus protests...in favor of the Iranian people.” (01:07)
• The regime’s brutal repression is condemned—thousands killed, sweeping inflation—yet mainstream media and leftist activists remain mostly silent.
• Clay attributes this to the “identity politics governing much of the choices being made on the left in America,” suggesting that because the protesters' cause doesn’t fit a popular identity narrative, it lacks support and coverage. (02:17)

2. Historical and Political Context

• Buck elaborates on why some international failures don’t resonate in American left circles:
  • Iran was never colonized; its situation can’t be blamed on classic anti-colonial narratives.
  • He draws a comparison with Venezuela, describing both as examples of failed leftist or theocratic governance over resource-rich nations.
  • “What you see in Iran and with the uprising...the people of Iran...are saying that this revolutionary, very Islamic by its own designation, government, is a disastrous, tyrannical failure top to bottom on all counts.” (05:19)

3. American and Global Response Options

Should the U.S. Intervene?

• Clay outlines the dilemma: Could support from outside powers—like the U.S. or Israel—actually undermine the organic opposition, allowing the government to blame “external enemies”?
• He asks Buck: “What is the actual tangible, if any, result that you think the United States should be involved in in Iran going forward right now?” (08:18)
• Buck notes the complexity: “It’s complicated, it's hard because you can make a decision with the best of knowledge and intentions that...could blow up in your face.” (09:15)
• Buck supports the proposition that the ideal outcome would be the Islamic revolution “collapsing at the hands of the Iranian people.”
• They discuss the large Iranian-American community, many of whom fled as refugees and might play a role in shaping Iran’s future if the regime falls. (10:02–11:33)
• Clay brings up an oft-cited fear: Sometimes a new leader can be worse, not better.

4. The Challenge of Regime Change

• Leadership Vacuum:
  • Even if the Ayatollah is removed, the theocratic and security-state apparatus remains. “It’s not just the IRGC, it's not just the Basij...you got to get rid of the people that run all of those things.” (29:38–30:28)
  • Buck cites history: “The biggest threat to authoritarian regimes is a highly placed insider.” (30:26)
  • Both hosts express uncertainty about who could take over post-revolution: Will it be an outsider like the exiled Crown Prince, or another regime insider? Comparisons are made to Iraq and Afghanistan post-intervention.

5. Iranian-American Perspectives

Callers provide emotional and sophisticated insight (19:56–28:39):

Shah in Clarksville, IN

• “Iranians made a blunder by bringing this Khomeini to power...but now they want to correct that course. And we are looking at the Berlin Wall moment. If this regime falls...it's going to be a seismic change in how the world views Islamic leftism. If the United States and Israel can help us bring about a change...not boots on the ground, but strategic strikes against this structure of the regime...Iran would [be] the shining city on the hill in the Middle East.” (20:40–22:22)
• Practically, Iranian exiles aren’t asking for U.S. troops, but for strategic support targeting regime infrastructure.

Mansoor in NYC

• Dispels the “brutal dictator” narrative of the Shah, suggesting the revolution was a coup, not a legitimate uprising.
• “This was a propaganda to get rid of the Shah, who was a very popular figure in Iran and very powerful...they want Reza Shah to come back.” (24:50–27:27)
• The exiled Crown Prince, Reza Pahlavi, is proposed as a transitional leader to democracy, with the final system to be determined by popular choice.

John in Long Island, NY

• Focuses on the regime’s military grip: “The military over there is really financially taken care of by the Mullers and the Ayatollahs...They don't have a second amendment in Iran...these protests go on, but they don't have any...way to defend themselves.” (28:39)
• Asks Buck about the possibility of a military-driven regime change.

6. Nature of Authentic Revolution

• Buck underscores that indigenous, authentic revolution is preferable:
  • “But the more it is indigenous and authentic from within the Iranian people, the better. That is for sure.” (33:21)
• They warn of complications familiar from Iraq and Afghanistan where external attempts to “parachute in” new leaders failed.

7. The "Berlin Wall" Moment?

• Clay repeatedly frames the protests as a potential world-historical shift:
  • “It could be in a Berlin Wall type moment if things were able to...end up with the Ayatollah going away and the Shah coming back...It could be transformative in many different ways.” (35:10)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Clay Travis (01:07):
  “Have you seen a single major campus protest in support of the Iranian protesters anywhere in America so far?... There hasn't been at least that I've seen any campus protests...”

• Buck Sexton (05:19):
  “The people of Iran...are saying that this revolutionary, very Islamic by its own designation, government, is a disastrous, tyrannical failure top to bottom...”

• Shah, Iranian-American caller (22:32):
  “We would put Trump’s statue in the main streets of Iran. He would do the second Cyrus the great moment for Iran, for the world history, for the Jewish people, for the whole civilized world.”

• Mansoor, Iranian-American caller (27:27):
  “Millions of people are giving us an answer. They're saying, javid Shah, which means long live the king... He [Reza Shah Pahlavi] is putting that choice on the hands of the people. You can't ask for anything more.”

• Buck Sexton (30:26):
  “The biggest threat to authoritarian regimes is a highly placed insider. Historically, it's actually not external intervention and it's not even an uprising of the people.”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:05–03:22 — Why aren’t U.S. college campuses protesting for Iranian demonstrators?
• 03:22–06:33 — Iran’s unique history; criticism of U.S. and UN focus; failures of the regime
• 06:33–09:15 — Should the U.S. intervene? Dilemmas and risks
• 10:02–12:24 — Iranian-American exiles, regime evils, and the difficulty of regime change
• 19:56–24:12 — Iranian-American callers weigh in (Shah, Mansoor, John)
• 28:39–33:23 — How do revolutions succeed? Military and insider threats to regime
• 33:23–34:46 — Risks post-regime change: lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan
• 35:10–36:08 — Framing this as a potential historic turning point
• 37:33–38:36 — Final (brief) Iranian-American caller: pro-American sentiment among Iranians

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a multifaceted, urgent discussion on the Iran situation—combining historical analysis, personal testimony from exiles, and practical musings about American foreign policy. Clay and Buck are skeptical about U.S. boots on the ground but receptive to targeted support that could “hit the regime where it hurts.” They highlight the need for any revolution to be Iranian-led and organic. The voices of Iranian-American callers add emotional power and immediacy to the debate, drawing parallels to the fall of the Berlin Wall and revealing both hope and caution about what comes after the current regime.

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For listeners looking for a thorough, impassioned, and informed discussion on Iran’s current crisis—and the U.S. role in pressing for freedom—this episode stands as a vital hour.

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Advertisements, show intros/outros, and unrelated call-ins have been omitted from this summary.

Transcript

[A]

This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.

[B]

Welcome back in hour number three, Monday edition Clay Travis BUCK SEXTON SHOW We've talked about a lot so far. The continued fallout in Minneapolis, the way that it has been responded at the Golden Globes in the NBA and Supreme Court. Coming tomorrow on a trans sports case. But we haven't talked about very much yet. Iran. And I want to jump in here now and talk about why I think, and I bet Buck will sign off on it. This could potentially be the biggest story going on in the world right now, depending on exactly how it is going to go from here. There have been roughly two weeks of anti fascist, anti fascist, anti theocratic government leadership against the Ayatollah who has been in power in Iran since 1979. And Buck, I want to start with this idea that I want everybody to just think about because I think it ties in with what you and I have correctly deduced as the identity politics governing much of the choices being made on the left in America. Have you seen a single major campus protest in support of the Iranian protesters anywhere in America so far? And I say that because the Iranian government has killed, it appears, thousands of innocent protesters who have taken to the streets of Iran. They're furious because the overall inflation rate has gone out of control in the wake of the 12 day war against Israel, which demonstrated just how futile Iranian military power truly was. Many people are saying, we are fed up. This protest started among people who are selling goods in markets and they basically said the inflation rate has skyrocketed to such extent that they're having to change prices so often that the Iranian currency has become effectively valueless. And all of these merchants, all of these retailers said we're over it. They shut down. They refused to sell their goods. That's where this protest started. It has since spread everywhere. But I want all of you to take note who saw campus protests from UCLA to Columbia and just about all points in between. There hasn't been at least that I've seen any campus protests that have taken over at O at all in favor of the Iranian people. And that is, I think, and I bet you would sign off on this, Buck, because the Jews are seen as white and they were the bad guys when it came to Palestine and everything that was going on in Gaza. And, and when it's actual brave Iranians standing up against the Iranian government, there isn't an identity politics coalition for stupid leftists in America to be able to jump on the bandwagon of. And so a lot of people are just Pretending this isn't happening. Now, granted, it's also difficult because we don't have a ton of footage because they have shut down the Internet, they've shut down phones, they've shut down the Iranian theocratic leadership under the Ayatollah has. So people aren't able to get information out as easily. But it is really markedly different when we compare the way that these two situations have been treated.

[A]

The challenge for so many on the left in this country and the Democrats, all of them, is in some of these international incidents, there are clear echoes of domestic policy and narratives that proliferate among democrats here in this country. And it causes problems for them. Example is Venezuela. What happened to Venezuela? Right. I'm going to get to Iran in a second, of course. But what happened in Venezuela is socialism and social justice, essentially class warfare. The country, unfortunately, through democratic processes, embraced a platform of central planning, class warfare and social justice that took the largest proven oil reserves in the world and made them essentially a pittance when it came to dealing with. Because they can't actually pump the oil out and all these other problems, but they can ruin anything. Communism can destroy anything. Right. Well, the other side of this is that in Iran you have a country that was never colonized, so there's really no anti colonial rhetoric that makes any sense. It's never been a colony of the United States. Um, and you have Persians, not Arabs. But that's a distinction that a lot of people won't even get into. But they've been running their own show there for quite some time and they've ruined it. And an Islamic theocracy, unfortunately is going to run into these problems. And Iran has done things to its own people. You know, we're always in this world of whatever America does, and however America messes things up, it's always our fault. It's always our fault. What you see in Iran and with the uprising clay is the people of Iran, yes. Are saying that this revolutionary, very Islamic by its own designation, government, is a disastrous, tyrannical failure top to bottom on all counts. Now, given that reality, why is it that there has been so much of a focus in the UN for example, on resolutions against Israel? Why has there been such a focus on the misadventures of America in the Middle east without taking into account the fact that Iran has been a state sponsor of terror all over the world and especially in the Middle east for longer than you and I have been alive while ruining the country for its people, while being a disaster. Basically, it's an Islamic state Different kind of Islamic State, but it's an Islamic State failure and it can't be avoided anymore. It also reminds everybody the Obama administration gambit on the Middle east was anything Clay, anything to get a nuclear deal with Iran, and then things will get peaceful. Because the alternative to that is World War Three. The World War Three people are wrong. The World War III people are actually consigning the Iranian people to perpetual misery unless there is an uprising like this.

[B]

Not only are they wrong, they are exactly. It's one thing to be wrong. Like you can think what's going to happen in an event ends up being different. There's different levels of wrongness. They're so wrong that they're actually working against the basic interests of the Iranian people and, and of global freedom around the world. And now here is the next question that is going to come out. Iran has shown that it will kill thousands of protesters when they take to the streets, that they are willing to indiscriminately rain down holy hell and their citizens who are fighting for basic freedoms. And also pointing out what I think is really significant, which is it's not, as you go back and watch, and I would encourage people to just do Google searches on this, go back and look at what Iran in the 1970s under the Shah was like. Women walking around in dresses and skirts, not having to wear hijabs, high levels of education for the citizenry there. The theocracy of Iran has not only been a complete and total failure when it comes to the basic freedoms of the people of Iran, it's destroyed the entirety of their economy. And, and again, it's somewhat similar, I would say, to Venezuela, because this is a country that is incredibly benefited and it is very fortunate to have huge natural resources of oil. And so they have the ability to have a successful society. They've had one before, back in the 1970s, much like Venezuela. It is evidence of how far left wing politics destroys everything that it touches. And so what should we do, Buck, when it comes to trying to support the protesters, which President Trump has said he is willing to do? Should we have more strikes in Iran? Should we? What is the actual tangible, if any, result that you think the United States should be involved in in Iran going forward right now? Because let me also lay it out for people out there, there is an argument, and it may or may not be true, I don't know, that if the United States gets involved in any way, it could strengthen the Iranian government because it allows them to say, oh, this is just external factors trying to diminish the success of the Iranian government. This isn't a organic growth opposition from inside the country. This is the United States, this is Israel going forward. All already, I think these protests have come about because of the strikes. What should we do now? That is what the President and his advisers are weighing.

[A]

Well, that's a very, that's a legitimate tough question. Yeah, I would like to say. Well, I'll say this first. It is okay to say that something like this, and it's not just because I'm saying it. I say this about a whole range of things. It's complicated, it's hard because you can make a decision with the best of knowledge and intentions that based on the extreme variability of these circumstances could blow up in your face. So you can have some guiding principles, but even the best guiding principles about whether it's non interventionism or an aversion to coup involvement or coup plotting or all these different things. Okay, well we also know that we blew up the nuclear program and nothing happened.

[C]

Right.

[A]

So, yeah, so there's, it's not as easy as just this is what the smart people think and therefore it's right or wrong. I think in the case of Iran, it would be obviously fantastic for the, for the Islamic revolution to fail and collapse at the hands of the Iranian people. And you know, you hear this because you have a really robust Iranian American community of people who fled. A lot of them are people who fled. I mean, you go around the LA.

[B]

Area, for example, well, legitimately fled because they might have been killed if they had stayed in the country. This is real asylum seekers.

[A]

So they're, they're refugees. I mean, there are people that had to take refuge, just like the Cubans here in South Miami who left because they didn't want to be part of Castro's authoritarian dictatorship. I mean, you'll notice there's this belief in left wing circles that all, well, America is bad and all other go, all other governments are better than, or at least as good as America. And that's, that's a crazy belief not rooted in any actual reality. The Israeli, the Iranian regime is an evil regime. They do evil constantly. They have ways of rationalizing it, but they do evil externally and internally and they're bad at what they do. You know, you, you can talk a lot. I mean, people will say, what about Saudi Arabia? Or like, what about China? Those countries do things that I also think are immoral and bad and wrong. But those countries aren't run by complete and utter morons. Yeah, I'm Just saying in terms of the results, it's not about iq, but.

[B]

It'S in terms of the results.

[A]

Iran is a disaster. Yes, it is a disaster on the scale of Venezuela is a disaster as a country. So at least in the case of something like Saudi, which is, by the way, in the process of liberalizing, not a lot, but it is under Mohammed bin Salman, it is, you know, allowing women some greater freedoms. And there are some things happening there. It's a little bit of a more nuanced picture, but it's still an authoritarian theocracy. But they're building a lot of stuff, Clay. It is safe, it is clean, and it is a very robust economy because of its energy exports. Iran is a disaster.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

So it offers even the people of Iran nothing. And this is where the left in this country, which loves to blame America and Iran is not America's fault. Iran is the Shia, Iranian Islamic theocracy's fault.

[B]

Here's another angle on that, Buck. A lot of the countries, I believe, in the Middle east actually prefer the Ayatollah in control because they know he's an incompetent leader and that Iran offers no actual danger or threat to them because of their incompetence. In other words, you don't know who's going to replace the Ayatollah. We always like to think, oh, it's going to get better. Sometimes the leader that replaces the bad leader is worse. Now, this is much less significant. But Chicago did it, right? Everybody's like, no, there's no way they could do worse than Lori Lightfoot. And then they went and got Brandon Johnson. Right. Sometimes replacing a failed leader does not lead to a better place. So you also have to, to your point on the, insert uncertainty. I don't know what the situation is in terms of who would rise up to be the next leader. Now we've reached out to the Shah of Iran, who is. We have actually reached out to Reza Pavlovi. I'm probably mispronouncing his lame, as I always do for these names, but he is saying, based on what I have seen, hey, I'm willing to be sort of a bridge to a more democratic Iran because people have a fond recollection now of the Shah's leadership because there were basic human rights that did exist when that happened in the 70s.

[A]

But to your point about things and what will happen afterwards, it is hard in this case to imagine a regime that, if that doesn't mean that, like, someone else takes over as the mullah, Right. Or this Isn't. It's not like, oh, we have another Khomeini. If it's somebody from the established regime right now, that's not actually a new regime. Right. So if you have though, someone who's truly outside the system right now governing or even a temporary disintegration of governance at some level, which I think is what really is concern a Libya, like a post Gaddafi Libya or a pre and post Assad Syria. I mean, these are, these are the things that people weigh on their minds when they're looking at all of this. But Clay, it is hard to imagine a regime that would be worse than what Iran has been been suffering under since 1979. It's hard to fathom how that could be possible.

[B]

I agree. And so that comes back to what should we do? And hey, I bet we have a bunch of Iranian listeners. If you are listening to us right now and you are have family in Iran or you feel like you are fairly well plugged in with the situation in Iran, we would love to hear from you. Buck, you and I were talking about this off air before we started the show. I said, hey, do you have anybody who's really good on Iran and that we could come on and bring on as a guest? And you said, no, and I don't know anybody. The challenge is information is so difficult to get out of Iran. It's. You made the analogy. It's somewhat similar. Nor it's like North Korea. Like, who's a really great expert on North Korea? Well, it's basically a closed, you know.

[A]

Fear, you know, not going. A lot of people in media that know much more than other because we're all just reading and observing and learning. There's not a lot of firsthand experience that many people bring to there. And even those who will say, oh, like CNN, I'm sure Anderson Cooper's like, I've been to Tehran 10 times. Yeah. With handlers going to the places you were allowed to go, seeing what you were allowed to see and not able to say what you wanted to say. So, you know, it doesn't really. There's, there's not a lot of great voices on this one in the media right now to point to who have deep expertise. But we'll see. We'll. We'll see if we can get somebody on that's particularly astute on this. We have a high.

[B]

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[A]

News you can count on, and some laughs too. Clay Travis and Buck Sexton.

[B]

Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[A]

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[B]

Back in Ask and ye shall receive a lot of Iranian callers. People who were born in Iran or have fled Iran in the wake of the 1979 revolution that put the ayatollahs into power are weighing in. And we've got several callers who want to give us their perspectives on the situation that is currently playing out in Iran. Up first, Shaw in Clarksville, Indiana. You said you've been in the US since 1975 but lived in Iran before that. What are you hearing from friends and family back in Iran? What is the best thing that the United States could do from your perspective?

[D]

I was born in Iran. First of all, it's an honor to talk to you gentlemen. I was born in Iran, immigrated to the United States, becoming a legal citizen, and have been rooting for a regime change in Iran ever since. Iranians made a blunder by bringing this Khomeini to power 40 years, 46 years ago now. But now they want to correct that course. And we are looking at the Berlin Wall moment. If this regime falls and they need the help, if this regime falls, not only Iran will become a calm, cool country, not investing in terrorism and all that, but I think it's going to be a seismic change in how the world views Islamic leftism. Because what brought these two in Power was the communists and leftists organized by, you know, throughout the Soviet years in East Germany and all that, as well as the mullahs who had the influence within the society. But Iranians have grown out of it. Those people are in power because of sheer force and brutality. And Iranians are peaceful people. We've been. There's 19 million Iranians back home. And we want to change. We cannot. It's a failed state right now. And if the United States and Israel can help us bring about a change, and I'm not talking about boots on the ground, but strategic strikes against this structure of the regime in Iran, I'm telling you, Iran would. The shining city on the hill in the Middle East.

[A]

So. So if that means, just to be clear, if, for example. And I think it's very important and wise that you establish that. Boots on the ground, you're not asking for that. You don't want that.

[B]

And.

[A]

And we, you know, I think America, the lesson we learned is in Iraq and Afghanistan, you can't have 10th Mountain and 82nd Airborne and the Marines, the Army, all these guys walking around villages trying to build them for the people that live there. Like, that's not what we're doing. Right. And everyone agrees, I think that, or everyone should agree that in Iran, that's not what the Iranian people want. That's not what we want. But hitting the besieged headquarters, IRGC facilities, things like that, in response to. I mean, they've killed hundreds, probably thousands now of protesters just opening fire on them. So going after some choke points, if you will, or some precise strike points against the regime. You want that. If Trump did that, you and many Iranians, I assume that you're friends with Iranian, Americans, are friends with, would be clapping for that. Is that right?

[D]

We would put Trump's statue in the main streets of Iran. We would praise him. He would do the second Cyrus, the great moment for Iran, for the world history, for the Jewish people, for the whole civilized world. And there is a plan in place. You have 10 million Iranians that fled. 90% of them are willing to invest in Iran. They're technocrats, and they're supporting Reza Shah Pahlavi. We want to give back to Reza Shah Pahlavi the opportunity for Iran to become a progressive nation, a pro Western nation. And he has had conferences. He's got connections within the Iranian community and elsewhere. He's an international figure. That Iran can easily become a civilized country. I'm telling you.

[B]

Thank you so much for the call. We've got several people who want to Weigh in. That was an Indiana call caller who was born in Iran and you could hear the passion in his voice. Mansoor. Mansoor in New York City came to the US in 1979, right about as the revolution happened. Mansoor, what was Iran like before the revolution? So when you were in Iran Prior to 1979, what was the country like then? What should in your mind, it be like going forward? And what can the United States do to help get Iran to where it should be?

[E]

First of all, guys, thank you for having me on. Longtime wrestler of Rush and Rush will be happy to have smiling and what you guys have done in the past few years on this show. But I came here in 1979, right around January, actually, exactly on January 11th. We left Iran in December of 1979 after all the schools closed down. First and foremost, all day long I've been listening to TV and radio and a lot of people maybe misinformed, saying that the Shah was a brutal dictator, he killed a lot of people. Let me correct that. If you go back to 1976, there's an interview of Mike Wallace on 60 Minutes, the Shah of Iran, where he basically came out and explained the situation in Iran, where Iran was, where it is right now and where it's going in. One of the points that he made in regards to what's going on with America, he said in America, the media, which you guys know very well, the media, Hollywood TV, is controlled by the Jewish Alliance. This was in 1976, one year to date. All the problems in Iran started. Now the Jewish alliance that he was talking about is the same Jewish alliance that put Mandani in office in New York City, the same Islamic communists that took over Iran. The second point I want to make is when the trouble started in Iran, it was not a revolution. This is not a legal government because the Majlis, which is the Congress of Iran, never elected this group to come in. So this was a propaganda to get rid of the Shah, who was a very popular figure in Iran and very powerful figure in the past seven years before he left Iran. And as a result, they needed to get rid of him because with this regime that came in or this occupying regime that came in, Iran gave away a lot of its resources to the world, to Russia, to the United States, to Europe, which there's none left for us. Plus all the money that the mullahs made went to terrorism. And there are people living in the streets right now in Iran.

[B]

So would you like to have the Shah back? What would in your ideal situation, Iran look Like next year, if everything could be you going back in time and the Shah is a bridge to a new, more democratic Iran, what should happen?

[E]

I think millions of people are giving us an answer. They're saying, javid Shah, which means long live the king. If Mohammad Reza Shah, the father was so bad, none of these people, old, young and new to politics would never ask for Reza Shah to come back. They want Reza Shah to come back.

[C]

Yes.

[E]

And as Reza Shah has mentioned, he wants to be a bridge to, for the people to vote on what they want. Do they want a king? Do they want a democracy like it is in the United States presidency? He is putting that choice on the hands of the people. You can't ask for anything more. As an Iranian who's been here for 47 years, okay. I can't ask for anything better than this. He's giving all the choice to the people of Iran.

[B]

Thank you for the call. Getting a variety of perspectives. John in Long island, say you're a first generation American, but your dad came to the USA from Iran. What do you hear from your friends and family? What should America do? What should happen to Iran based on the conversations that you have with people from that country who are now here?

[C]

Well, what I'm hearing is that one of the biggest problems is the military over there is really financially taken care of by the Mullers and the ayatollahs over there, which is what's protecting the government there. So obviously they don't have a second amendment in Iran. So these protests go on, but they don't have any other way to defend themselves. So, I mean, from my perspective, I mean, I mean, I look at a place like Egypt when the Muslim Brotherhood came in there and that people were running over there were basically the ayatollahs and suits and the military had to come into Oustan because the people weren't having it. I wanted to know from Buck if he thinks there's any way that the military could possibly turn on the government there. Because I just don't see how like the crown prince could come back and just have a smooth transition into having, you know, elections or a referendum or something on a new government. Shouldn't there be some sort of way for the military to turn on them? Because my understanding is the ayatollah son seems like he wants to take over if he flees to Moscow.

[A]

Well, it's a very. Look, you ask a great question and of course you're talking about Iranian regimes. You want to talk to the CIA guy about coups, which is Fine. Which is fine. As one does, I would say one of the big, you know, the biggest, historically. I've actually read some academic treatises, I guess, on this, like books that have been like multiliths or multiliths is what they call them. Right. Don't really get published, but kind of get published. You can find them on JSTOR and those kinds of places. The biggest threat to authoritarian regimes is a highly placed insider. Historically, it's actually not external intervention and it's not even an uprising of the people. The biggest threat, by the numbers, is, you know, the guy who's the dictator or el capitan or el commandante or whatever.

[B]

The palace coup.

[A]

His. Yeah. His brother who runs the security service is like, you're done. You know, and maybe he gets sent to exile or maybe he sleeps with the fishes. But that's usually the biggest one. So the question in an Iranian context is, okay, you want the removal of this regime, but the regime is an apparatus. It's not an individual. It's not just the irgc, it's not just the besieged who are like the. The street thugs. In Syria, they were called the shabiha, and in Iran, they're the. They're the besieged who are like. The Hitler Youth is broadly, you know, that's not really. But it's kind of like that. It's like the young thugs that beat people up for not obeying the Islamic revolution, yada, yada. So the besieged are bad dudes. They're like a militia. And you got to get rid of the people that run all of those things is my point, too. Right. It's not just like there's one guy who goes and then everything.

[B]

You get rid of the ayatollah. You can't. The government structure is still there. It's like the next guy comes up and it's a very similar system, probably. And this is one of the things about Venezuela, right?

[A]

Yes. This is the problem becomes. Well, now, do you want someone who's already highly placed, who's willing to dramatically change course for the regime, is in a position where they're powerful enough to do so, get compliance from the existing apparatus to change course, not be killed or whatever themselves. This is where it gets very tricky because a lot of people have been not only bought into this because of their benefit from their access to the regime, but also their hands are dirtied by it. Yeah. Meaning that they were involved in the repression.

[B]

They were.

[A]

And those people get very. Now, look, it is possible, but people will point to, like, what happened in Nazi Germany, for example. Yeah, we had trials and hanged people after the end of the war and we slaughtered a whole lot of ss. And I mean, that's like decimation. Not more than decimation, but that's the annihilation of the regime. That wasn't just like, oh, Hitler's dead, everything's fine. Hitler, all of his buddies, they're all dead. Or we killed them, that was what.

[B]

Or they. Prison for the rest of their lives.

[A]

Right, but, you know, but, but they, they all got dealt with, though. Nobody was like, you know, this Himmler guy, let's give him a shot as Chancellor of Germany.

[B]

Right.

[A]

So you have a similar situation with the Ayatollahs and the Iranian regime. What's the, what's the. Is there a off ramp that would.

[B]

Work with the existing structure?

[A]

And this is just sort of General Coup 101 stuff. Not that I know about that. CIA stuff, we don't know, but Coup 101 stuff. Is there an off ramp? Venezuela, we're taking that right now. We're doing that off ramp thing of. Ok, we're going to use what's in place because we don't want Iraq getting rid of the BAATH Party, which was like everybody from the generals to the traffic cops, oh, sorry, you can't have a hand in this.

[B]

Well, that was a terrible.

[A]

So in Iran, Clay, it's, it's going to be. It's tricky. But the more it is indigenous and authentic from within the Iranian people, the better. That is for sure. That is the. And the problem we ran into in Afghanistan is we're like, hey, we used to work with this guy back in the day against the Soviets. Let's just like put him on a motorcycle and like drop him over the border in the country and you know, hey, Hamid Karzai, what's going on, buddy? I mean, that doesn't work.

[B]

Well, not only that, I mean, that wasn't one of the big hopes of Iraq, was it? Ahmad Shalabi, like, this guy sold them, sold everyone on, hey, I can run the country. There's actually a huge demand for Saddam to be replaced. And the reality was obviously the ethnic divisions, the different Muslim backgrounds, and then the Kurds, it turned into a huge disaster. I still kind of think that the way to have solved Iraq from the get go was actually to divide the country up into three different unique ethnic groups, give the Kurds their freedom and divide Iraq in some way. I know there's lots of challenges, but that is why a lot of people out there are like, okay, what is the solution if the, if the Ayatollah gets overthrown? What is the next step? By the way, great calls, wide variety of perspectives. That's why I love opening up phone lines because there aren't a lot of people with a great deal of expertise when it comes through with all of this. All right, we'll play a couple of cuts more to close up shop as this story continues to play out. I would encourage you guys to pay attention to it because I do think it could be in a Berlin Wall type moment if things were able to to end up with the Ayatollah going away and the Shaw coming back and all these different moving parts. It could be transformative in many different ways. But I want to tell you, very easy and fun thing going on Monday Night Football, the final wild card game of the weekend. I bet Buck didn't watch any of them, but my goodness, the NFL playoff games over the weekend were fantastic. So, so enjoyable. And if you want to have a little bit more fun, I'll have picks for you. With divisional round games coming up, four of them this weekend in the NFL. And you can now play prize picks in all 50 states. All you have to do is go to prizepix.com code clay prizepix.com clay you can get hooked up $50 deposited in your account nationwide. Everybody can play when you play. $5. Florida, Georgia, Texas, Florida. I think I already said it once. California, if you're feeling left out, you can play now in all 50 states. Price picks.com code clay prizepix.com Clay, get in there. I'll give you a pick this weekend. Let's have some fun with prize picks.

[A]

Making America great again isn't just one man, it's many. The Team 47 podcast Sundays at noon Eastern in the Clay and Buck podcast feeds. Find it on the iHeartRadio app or.

[B]

Wherever you get your podcasts.

[A]

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In addition to federal grants and aid, GCU's online students received nearly $161 million in institutional scholarships in 2024. Find your purpose at Grand Canyon University, Private Christian, Affordable. Visit gcu Edu Myoffer to see the scholarships you may qualify for. That's GCU Edu Myoffer. Welcome back in here to Clay and Buck. We got a call in from Michael. Clay says a good call. I'm going to trust Clay on this one. Michael, what have you got for us?

[E]

Hey, guys. Good to hear from you. Well, I was thinking about the whole case that's going to happen tomorrow about the transgenderism. And we all know that Kentanji Brown Jackson, when she was going through her confirmation hearings, couldn't define what a woman is. So if she can't define what a woman is, how can she make a logical and compelling argument about transgender women or women's sports? I think it's really disheartening.

[B]

We'll talk about that tomorrow. That's. I like that argument, by the way. Let's get Fred in Sacramento. Another Iranian caller got 30 seconds. Fred, we're finishing up the show, but we want to hear from you.

[D]

Hi. Thanks for putting me on. I just want to remind everyone that people in Iran, they love Americans, these new generations, they've forgotten that actually it was Carter who destroyed Iran by getting rid of Shah.

[A]

Okay. Thank you for the.

[B]

Thank you for the call. I think he broke off there. I do think a lot of young Iranians are very favorably displayed, exposed to the United States in a way that might surprise people in the United States. We'll talk more about this tomorrow. Thanks for all of you hanging out with us on the Monday edition.