← The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
It's a Numbers Game: Democrats Think Trump Assassination Attempts Were FAKE? Shocking New Poll Revealed
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American Medical Association Announcer
That's innerbalance.com your social media feed delivers plenty of advice, but it doesn't know you. It doesn't ask questions. It doesn't give physical exams or order tests doctors do. At the American Medical association, we believe the best care starts with a real conversation with someone who understands the science and your unique health. So stay curious. Ask questions. But when it's time to make decisions, make them with a doctor. Learn more at amahealth versus hype.org that's amahealthvshipe.org it never happens at a good time.
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- [02:38]
Ryan Graduski
Welcome to a numbers game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you guys for being here. Are Democrats increasingly losing touch with reality? That's the big question I have for you guys today because poll numbers, new polling data are showing that an increasing number of Democrats believe that the latest assassination attempt against President Trump has been staged. A new poll by the nonprofit New Guard and YouGov polling found that nearly one in three Americans believe that at least one of the three assassination attempts against President Trump was fake. Only 38%, this is like, shockingly low. Only 38% believe that they were all authentic, and the rest really aren't sure. The one that Americans have the hardest time believing was real apparently was the one at the White House correspondence dinner, the one that happened most recently. Only 45% of Americans believe that was authentic, while 24% said it was staged. And 32% really aren't sure of what to make with a make of it. Now, that's among all Americans. When you parse through political party, you obviously see which one is really losing touch with reality. So according to the poll, 26% of Democrats believe the shooting at Trump International Golf Course was staged. That's probably the least well remembered of the three shootings because it wasn't caught on camera. And obviously the president wasn't hit. It was committed by a guy named Ryan Roth, which is really a disgrace to all Ryan's out there. He was in the shrubs, basically where the paparazzi usually stand to take photos of President Trump while he's golfing. He was there with a rifle. The Secret Service saw him. They shot at him. He ended up fleeing. He was caught. He was given life in jail without parole. That was the one that they, that's the one that they have a big problem with for some reason. So 26 believe that that's fake, as do 14 of independents and 7% of Republicans. Then there's the big one, the one in Butler. That's the one where Thomas Crooks nearly killed the president and shot his ear instead of his head because the president turned in, in like a split of a second to an immigration chart, ended up killing that poor firefighter, Corey Compataro, I believe, how you say, his last name. But he was shot by police officers, and he was killed. A whopping 42% of Democrats think that that shooting was fake. 42%. That's more than double the amount of independents, which is 21%, and Republicans, which is 7%. And lastly, the shooting at the White House Correspondence center, that's caught on camera. You could see the man with the gun moving past security. 34% of Democrats believe that that one was staged, compared to 23% of, of, of, of independents and 13% of Republicans. That's a lot for Republicans still. And you have to remember there's a portion of the country that really loves conspiracy theories. They will buy that. You know, we're going to find the ufo, Bigfoot, Loch Ness monster, bat boy, all the rest of it in the magazines till the end of time, or they're going to click on those websites. You, so you expect a certain percentage, but there's really no, the wild thing actually about this, this shooting is that there's really, and all the shooting is really is that there's no age difference. There's not like a huge spike among young people that fades as, as, you know, you age. It's really pretty. It's, it's basically 25% of the public in every age bracket really believe that shootings were staged, especially the Butler shooting. Democrats can't seem to imagine that screaming the words fascism, racism, sexism about Trump and his supporters for a decade now have led to some of their supporters really cracking and acting out in violence. They can't seem to put the puzzle pieces together that their violent rhetoric and their anxiety for scenarios that are completely fake, that this is the end of democracy and the general extremism within their party is causing some people who are already on the edges of society and already have poor mental health. You know, that's leading them to crack. It's leading them to break and, and, and act out on violence. It's important to remember that no group suffers more from mental health issues than liberals. Data from the Pew Research center from back from 2020 found that Liberal men and women are much more likely to be told that they have a mental health problem than their peers who are moderate and conservative. More than 50% of young liberal women and more than 30% of young liberal men have been told they have a mental health issue. Even liberals who are over 65 are twice as likely as their peers in that same age bracket who are moderate or conservative to be told they have a mental health issue. There is a, there is a coalescing people mental health around the party so this increasingly unwell group of people who are getting more unwell actually with every passing generation and believe Donald Trump is both a sinister villain and a raging, capable of tying his own shoes, can seem to think people in their base wouldn't try to kill him. That's, that's, there's evidence that this has been leading to this for some time. Like in 2017 when a Bernie Sanders supporter tried to kill Republicans at a congressional baseball game and nearly killed poor Steve Scalise. Or there was the year, the year before that, when two black lives activists had or highly orchestrated murder of police officers in both Dallas and Baton Rouge because, you know, cops are all racist. And in 2023 when we had all those schoolchild at the Christian school in Nashville murdered by a trans activist because she said that they were erasing her. And the murder of the health insurance executive by Luigi Mangione and the numerous attacks we've had against ICE facilities and against ICE officers and the assassination of Charlie Kirk. I'm not saying that there are no crazy right wingers who commit violence. There are, there are definitely a lot of, there's and I'll, I'll rag on the, on the right wing right now. There's a lot of antisocial behavior on the right. There's a lot of concerns and beliefs around conspiracy theories that are extremely unhelpful. You may have seen if you spend enough time on the Internet, you will find people who believe JFK Jr. Was, was, is alive. You'll find people who believe in a lot of nutty stuff who believe in, you know, child pedophilia rings. Yeah. Pizza parlors. There's been a lot of things that they have believed that have fundamentally not been true that have really, really hurt people or hurt people's mental state. And also, by the way, chat GPT and, and chat boxes aren't. Chat bots are helping those people with mental health issues. I'll, we'll put that aside for a different time at a different story because I got one for you about that. But it is a difference though between the left and the right when it comes to how we approach crazy people who are extraordinarily violent. Because when right wingers commit murder, the response by Trump supporters isn't to make merchandise. There's an entire website dedicated to Luigi Mangione's merchandise. From candles that make him look like a saint, to heart shaped keychains, to T shirts to hats. You name it, you can buy one with a murderer on it who murdered an innocent guy. Just waking up to go to a meeting. No. 1 major Republican who's close to becoming the nominee. Front office is having a conspiracy nut join him at campaign rallies. A conspiracy nut who is calling for violence. I think that's the big key calling for violence. Our violent rhetoric, our violent nutties. They have been marginalized to the Internet and to podcasts. And because we have free speech, they can always live on the Internet and on and on podcasts. That's where they have, you know, freedom to roam. That is the blessing and the curse of the First Amendment. You let crazy people speak. But the left, that's not the case. The left is not marginalizing these people. The leading candidate for U.S. senate in Michigan, he's campaigning along with a guy. And there's a warning sign. If you're listening with the kids, there's a lot of found language. This is what this guy is saying on his Twitch stream. Well, my understanding is that the property owners who have properties there choose just not to rent it at all. Yeah, kill them. Kill those motherfuckers and murder those motherfuckers in the street. Let the streets. Let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist bloods. Dude, that's you. Prominent Democrats are having on their podcasts attending campaign rallies with and welcoming the endorsement of. Do you remember when Donald Trump said he punched somebody in the nose and that was considered. Oh my gosh, I can't believe. Look at the violence. Listen to the violence. This is way worse. This is calling for mass blood in the streets. And when a looney tune leftist, probably already ready dealing with anxiety and depression because they're told to be guilty about their race and shameful of our nation's history and capitalism is killing the earth and they shouldn't have children. When one of them snaps and commits violence, the. The left's answer is simple. They're saying it didn't happen. Wasn't ours, not something else. They're just memory holding all of this violence. Ladies and gentlemen, these people are losing grip. They're losing touch with reality. They're losing touch of grass. Social media and political propaganda is making them increasingly unwell. And we're quickly entering a place where there'll be a large portion, maybe not a majority, but a large portion that you cannot reason or, or logic with because they are not on the same plane. This is not a disagreement over the number of immigrants per year or the top marginal tax rate. This is a basic, basic argument of did something that we've all seen on camera happen? It's bad. All right, coming up next, we're going to talk about new polling and the redistricting wars that's coming up next. Stay tuned.
- [12:22]
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Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc, SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures fatigued
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Andrea Gunning from Sonesta
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- [15:02]
Ryan Graduski
New polling from SSRS, which works with CNN, shows that the American's opinion of the economy is hitting a record low. The poll found that 70%. Sorry, 77% of Americans, including a majority of Republicans, think that Trump's policies have caused prices to increase for them. The poll found that disapproval for Trump has hit 6. 65%. Guys, this is the worst it's ever been in a CNN poll. And his favorability among the about the economy is 70%. I know everyone's going to say, oh, it's CNN, it's CNN. Remember, no one has had as much gripe with CNN than I have. But throughout the whole first term, in Trump's first term, you have to remember CNN polling show that he was thriving with the economy. The lowest Trump ever polled in a CNN poll during the whole first term with the economy was 48%. That was the lowest. The highest was 56%. They said that he was doing great with the economy in the eyes of voters, despite, you know, the Trump derangement syndrome and the Russia gate and all those nonsense and lies. So CNN's polling is very different than how their network acts. Right? The Trump's most popular issue, according to this most recent poll, is immigration. And his least popular issue is gas prices. No surprise there. The thing that is important is that 55% of Americans say that the economy and the cost of living is their number one issue. That is a population 13 points since January. Immigration, threats to our democracy, crime and safety, all them are going down in terms of terms of importance. The only thing going up besides the economy is health care. When asked if Trump's policies had made the economy better or worse, 65% said worse. That is worse than at any time for any CNN poll. For Joe Biden, that's not good. When asked if the following had a negative or positive impact on their life. The war with Iran, 75% said negative. 8% said positive. Tariffs, 65% said negative. 16% said positive. AI, 46% said negative. 16 said positive. The change to our tax law, 41% said negative, 25% said positive. And recent performance, the stock market, 35% said negative, 25% said Positive. Folks, the American public is very, very pissed. They are in the mindset of a change election. That's what a change election like polling looks like. And the poll done and that's why that's polling done before. The new inflation numbers just recently came out, which is a annual 3.5, 3.4% annualized rate. That means that all the increases in wages are being eaten up by inflation. After a year of slow inflation, which was the first Trump year, it's really jumped up in the last few months because the war with Iran. But despite all these terrible numbers for, for, for Trump, I have some both good and bad news for the gop. Which one do you want to hear first? Let's go with the good news. Okay. CNN polling shows for the midterm elections, Republicans aren't doing that bad. The poll shows Democrats are, are winning the election so far, the generic ballot, but not by much. 45 to 42% that's in the margin of error. That's a jump election. That means, yeah, you could lose a few, but you're going to make it through. There are two major reasons for that. 57% said there's another issue aside from the economy that they're voting on, which is good for Republicans. I mean there's a lot of Democrats who say that as well because it's democracy is ending. But most voters say, most voters say that the big reason they're, they're split, evenly split, Republicans, Democrats, is because they don't trust either party on the economy. They don't trust them on the stock market. They don't trust them on inflation, on income, inflation, inequality, taxes and the cost of living. They're all within the margin of error or leaning towards. They trust neither party. Also helping Republicans obviously is the rate changes of the map. South Carolina made it an about face from their earlier statements and they did redraw their map. They're getting rid of Representative Clyburn seat, which is wild. He is a lion of the House. He is the most significant Democrat in South Carolina. So redistricting him into a Republican seat is a, a big, big change. Alabama's looking at changing one seat. Louisiana's looking at changing one seat. Who knows, it could be two. They have to get political pressure from the White House because the governors are really kind of slow walking that process. As of right now, the Cook Political Report, which is one of these political nonpartisan, they lean a little left. But nonpartisan websites that looks at where the Races are leaning towards Republicans or Democrats. Say that 209 House seats are leaning towards Republicans and that's South Carolina redrew their seats would be 210 while 206 are leaning towards Democrats with 19 toss up seats. That is so significantly different than in 2018 where Democrats had a nearly 20 seat advantage this early on. The fact that Republicans have a four seat advantage is wild. In 2018199 seats were leaning Republican. That's at that point 199 to 210. It's a big, big difference. How likely is it though that Republicans keep the House? Can Republicans lose the House? Maybe what you're asking. They can absolutely still lose the House. Democrats still have the advantage in all these 19 swing districts or most of these 19 swing districts. Can Republicans get down to 2018 levels where in 2018 they only had 199 seats? Extremely, extremely unlikely. Democrats are really capped right now. Even if they blow out this election, Even if they sw sweep all these swing districts, they're looking at 225 seats. That's just a seven seat majority. That means Hakeem Jeffries job becomes a bit of a nightmare just like Kevin McCarthy. It's not a great job to have and you're such a slim majority. Now here's the bad news for Republicans. A new poll by veteran GOP pollster Chris Perkins. He looked at Republicans who voted in the most recent Texas primary and he about he found that there is a a spike in not interest in voting, of not of not being interested in voting among some high propensity voters who usually always vote. Polls aside from this have shown a consistent enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans and we're seeing that again 31% of the people who they are not interested in voting this time around in the primary at least they are very high propensity voters. There are people who vote vote very frequently if Republicans don't show up because they're disengaged for whatever reason, they don't like the Iran war, they don't like the comments from people online, they don't like this or that or they're upset about tariffs. Whatever the reason, a lot of these districts that are swing or even lean Republican may find themselves with a Democratic congressman unless they show up. Okay, next up is Ask Me Anything.
- [22:04]
Public Investing Platform Advertiser
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- [23:06]
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- [23:38]
Wix Harmony Advertiser
AI so often that I tend to tune most of it out. But I gotta say, Wix Harmony actually lives up to the hype. It's an AI website builder that lets you build any type of website with AI but still gives you the freedom to edit anything yourself so you're not just stuck with whatever AI gives you. And you've got an AI agent named Aria that can help you out. Try it for free@wix.com Harmony that's wix.com
- [24:03]
Andrea Gunning from Sonesta
Harmony this is Andrea Gunning from Betrayal Travel Smarter, Not Harder and America's Best Value Inn by Sinesta. With convenient locations from coast to coast and value packed comfort at every turn, it's a practical choice for road trips, quick getaways and everyday travel that keeps things simple without sacrificing comfort. And when you're a Sonesta Travel Pass member, staying at America's Best Value Inn means earning points towards free nights, upgrades and more every time you stay. Go to Sonesta.com to book your stay and unlock the best rates with Sonesta Travel Pass here today, Rome tomorrow. Join now@sunesta.com Terms and conditions apply.
- [24:45]
Ryan Graduski
Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me. Ryan numbers game podcast.com that's Ryan@NumbersGame podcast plural podcast. I'm sorry. Floral numbers podcast.com hi Ryan. This one comes from Jason. He says hi Ryan. I've been listening to your show for about a year since you gave a great interview on the Daily Wire. Thank you for that. Jason, I heard you mention the concept of proportional representation in one of your redistricting episodes. I live in New York, specifically the 4th congressional district, which is on Long Island. It leans blue but is competitive. If New York and other states for that matter were to do proportional representation, would there be districts they run in at large? For that matter, how would the candidates get chosen? Could the respective caucuses and state legislatures appoint the congressional delegation? Okay, that's a great question for a very high up concept. I don't know. They think this is going to happen anywhere. But what would happen basically is each state, each, let's say it's statewide. Statewide proportional representation. Each party would put up their slate of delegates. So for New York State there's 26 congressional districts, therefore they get 26 slates. Independent districts can also put up their independent parties rather put up their slates as well. However, the vote is then tallied. This slate would then be elected based upon the percentage of votes that they receive. So in New York state in 2024 at the U.S. house elections, 42.5% of New Yorkers voted for a Republican. For Congress, Republicans only received 27% of congressional seats. So under the scenario of proportional representation, they would get 11 seats. So what would happen is basically they look at the slate, the slate of 26 candidates and the first 11 would get picked to go to Congress and the last 15 would not get picked. That's how you would do proportional representation. In the case of statewide proportional representation, it would be very good for Republicans in blue states. It would be not so good for Republicans in red states. There would be no more conversations about gerrymandering. So maybe everybody would win, who knows. But. But yeah, that's how that would work. Okay, next question comes from Joseph. So many folks are took our commenting on the impact of SCOTUS's Calais section on which race can no longer be used as a factor in drawing voting districts. What I have not seen and where I like to hear your thoughts is what is the impact of Calais to be related to the state legislature. Will purple states become more pink and pink states become more crimson? That is a great color selection, by the way. Crimson. A lot of things can happen at the state level that is so often overlooked. Many states have their own laws regarding race. Yes, they do. That is a great point. So there is a number of states that have their own own laws around voting rights around race. Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, Minnesota, Illinois, Virginia, Maryland, Connecticut and New York. Other states have proposed it, including Arizona, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont, Texas, Florida. They're not the law yet, though. But the other states were the ones of were the laws. What's going to happen is in those states there, unless Democrats get overly active and say, hey, we're going to abolish our local V, which I don't think they're going to. Only one of those legislatures has a Republican legislator. Minnesota Republicans control the state House. In Virginia, they're one seat short of the state Senate. And aside from that, it's pretty heavily Democratically controlled. I don't assume that they're going to change the redistricting rules around race. So I don't, I don't presume that that will happen in the other states. It will matter of who sues who for what and who's in charge of redistricting. That's really the basic question of who sues who. I don't, I don't know for each and every single state. But in the states I mentioned, I don't foresee much changing. Okay, next is for my buddy Tommaso. Tommaso said this guy Ben Domenech, who is married to Rhino Megan McCain posted on Twitter that he thinks Spencer Pratt in LA won't win. That bust my enthusiasm, Buz, as I voted for both Hilton and Pratt. I know ca California we are surrounded by ossified robots voting D even when their house is burning down and the Democrats cheat. So my hope are low but this guy crushed me. What are your sense? And also can you get on Mark Mitchell from Rasmussen and Elizabeth Barack Borochana from the California gop? Okay, Mark Mitchell banned me, blocked me from Twitter because I told him that most of his polls are terrible, which they are. And I don't know his Elizabeth girls but I'll check her out. As for Ben and Megan, Ben and Megan are very good friends of mine. I love Megan McCain. Do not I will not tolerate Megan McCain slander. Megan is a sweetheart and she is also way more conservative than I think people know her for or or think of her. Megan. Megan's most well known for her clips on the View. That was not the best light to see Megan McCain. And Megan is. Is far more conservative. She's a mama, Chrisley. She's a wonderful, wonderful, wonderful person. And she's. She's a right winger. She's a hardcore right winger. So is Ben. Okay, what do I have to say this? Spencer. So since Spencer's debate performance, he has spiked in the polls. He's now at 18, by the way. I texted Spencer Pratt. I got his phone number. I texted him, asking him on the podcast, who knows if he will. So I really wanted to come to podcast so badly. But now that he's popular, everyone wants him, so he's probably gonna come here, but whatever. So Spencer's poll numbers have jumped from, I think, 11 to 18, which puts him firmly in second place. He's very close to the socialist, but, I mean, he's in second place. He needs a little bit more heat. A little bit. But everything's going in his way. So can he make the runoff? I think he can. Especially between Karen Bass putting the votes and all the other Democrats running, I think he can really make the runoff. Can he get any further than that for the runoff? I don't. I haven't seen Karen Bass's unfavorable favorability ratings. He has the Democrats against him. That is tough. I mean, they are overwhelmingly against him. Does the other Democrat, I forget her name, the city councilman who is a socialist? Do her voters sit out of the election to protest Karen Bass? Do they say, okay, go ahead, vote for Spencer Pratt? Do they think that it's all fun and just say, hey, let's vote for the reality star? I don't know. I think he can make the second round of the runoff. The other question is, what does turnout look like? They're only expecting about 33 to 35% turnout in the primary in California. Remember, California has universal mail in ballots. There is no reason not to vote. It's coming to your house. If Republicans show up in force, I do 100% believe he can get there as. Welcome to Hilton. We'll see about the sheriff if he can make it and lock Republican, lock Democrats out. I used to think they could, but with Slaw dropping out, it becomes very, very difficult to kind of cut the numbers any which way. Okay, last question for the episode. It comes from Brian. In a US System that is effectively bifurcated between two parties, how do undecided voters still exist? Are they proverbially low information voters who do not actively Follow politics. Is it that they deem themselves enlightened, but they, they do their due diligence before looking at an issue. You spoke about double haters before. What are some of the additional factors that make someone inclined to self identify as an undecided voter? Is there any statistically significant data that helps to cluster those who identify as undecideds? Is there any difference between undecideds and independents? Okay, that's a phenomenal question. Yes, huge difference between independents and undecided. Most independents vote the same way in every election. Some of them. Some of them move here and there, maybe more than obviously Republicans or Democrats, but they are overwhelmingly voting the same way in every single solitary election. That's why in a lot of Fox polls, if you'll see, see, like only 8% of the electorate is independent because they only poll people who don't lean Republican or Democrat, which is that small among undecided. There's a lot of factors. One, there's youth is a factor. If you're younger, you're more likely to be undecided. Immigration is a factor. If you're a recent immigrant, you're more likely to be undecided. If you even show up. Race is a factor. Black voters, although they vote Democrat, the question of showing up is much higher among black voters. Education, those who are less college educated, which is oftentimes younger people, and Latinos and blacks than whites, they are more likely to be undecided. So all those things play into it. Part of it is the double hater thing. I said they hate both parties. They're not exactly sure. Part of it is on vibes, which is something that I hate. As someone who loves data, who loves policy, it only gets you so far. Part of his vibes, that's why Spencer Pratt, my way, he has the vibes going for him. And then as far as you know, are they truly independent? No, most of them are. Aren't. There is an amazing. I always forget who cited it. I think it was. I'll do. I'll introduce the whole entire thing next week because I just came popping my head. There is. There was a study done by one of the big universities out in California about what is a moderate and what is an independent and what an independent is. And what a moderate is is not. You think independent and you think Susan Collins, you think Joe Manchin, you think Kirsten Gillibrand or maybe be the senator from Pennsylvania, Fetterman. That's what you might think of. What a moderate really is, is actually more like Fetterman. Than it's like any of the other people basically is somebody who has extreme positions on numerous issues. So they may be very right wing on immigration and very left wing on health care and very right wing on Social Security reform and very left wing on gun issues. And then when you add all of the their sphere of politics together, you get an independent because they have conflicting issues. It's not that they kind of are middle of the road on every issue. It's actually very not bad. Most people are not middle of the road. They have quote unquote extreme positions or very left wing or right wing positions on this issue or that issue. There's just no consistency. And that's what changes that that factor. So part of it is what also what what matters in 2020, 2016, the immigrant. Immigration mattered a lot. In 2024, immigration mattered a lot in 2020, immigration did not matter that much because the president had, you know, basically gotten the border under control. I don't know if 2028 will matter because the president's beginning the border under control. So issues that matter double haters, education vibes, which I hate that that is even a word in my lexicon. But that's the truth. All those things play. I'm going to cite that study on Friday's episode and I will bring up to you about like, you know, where this independent number comes from, but it's, it's and then on the side of number comes from it's actually much smaller. I probably, it's probably bigger for it's smaller for the presidency. It's probably much bigger for city council, state legislature races where you're not super familiar with the person. So anyway, that's this episode. Thank you guys for listening. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcast and on YouTube. I will see you guys on Friday. Friday.
- [35:32]
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