It's a Numbers Game: From AI to Education: What the Numbers Say with Brent Buchanan

Summary

Podcast Summary: "It's a Numbers Game: From AI to Education: What the Numbers Say with Brent Buchanan"

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
• Host/Author: Premiere Networks
• Episode: It's a Numbers Game: From AI to Education: What the Numbers Say with Brent Buchanan
• Release Date: April 14, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of "It's a Numbers Game," host Ryan Graduski delves into critical societal issues through the lens of recent polling data. Joining him is Brent Buchanan, founder of Signal Polling Firm, who provides expert analysis on public opinion regarding immigration, artificial intelligence (AI), Big Tech regulation, and trade tariffs. The conversation offers insightful perspectives on how Americans perceive these pivotal topics amid the current political climate.

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Guest Introduction

[12:50] Ryan Graduski: Introduces Brent Buchanan, founder of Signal Polls, highlighting his expertise and the firm's reputable standing in the polling industry.

[42:58] Brent Buchanan: Shares his background, detailing his journey from running local political campaigns in Montgomery, Alabama, to establishing Signal Polls. He emphasizes the strategic and scalable nature of polling compared to direct campaign management.

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1. Immigration: Public Sentiment and Poll Findings

Poll Questions:

• Initial Question: "America brings in about 1 million legal immigrants per year. Is that number too high, too low, or about right?"
• Follow-up Question: "How many legal immigrants should America bring in per year?" (Options ranged from zero to unlimited.)

Key Findings:

• 38% believe the current level is "about right."
• 37% favor a reduction.
• 11% support increasing immigration.
• When specifying numbers:
  • 9% want zero immigration.
  • 44% desire a 90% reduction.
  • 61% support a reduction of 50% or more.

Demographic Breakdown:

• Royalties: 73% of Trump supporters favor reducing immigration.
• Gender: 55% of women vs. 61% of men support reduction.
• Ethnicity: 60% of white voters vs. 57% of Black voters and 53% of Hispanics support reduction.

Discussion Highlights:

• Brent Buchanan [17:05]: Highlights the inconsistency between initial perceptions and detailed numbers, noting that policy discussions often oversimplify complex issues.

Notable Quote:

Brent Buchanan [21:07]: "43% of the country say that [reducing immigration by 50% or more]."

[23:50] Ryan Graduski: Observes that the lack of stark differences across groups, aside from partisanship, challenges media narratives.

[25:26] Buchanan: Explains the "diploma divide," where non-college educated voters predominantly support immigration reductions, contrasting with college-educated voters who are more open to higher immigration levels.

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2. Artificial Intelligence: Public Anxiety and Curiosity

Poll Question: "How does the future of AI make you feel?"
Responses:

• 33% Nervous
• 26% Curious
• 18% Anxious
• 12% Excited
• 11% Unsure

Demographic Insights:

• Gender Gap:
  • 36% of women feel nervous vs. 29% of men.
  • 31% of men are curious vs. 22% of women.
• Educational Divide:
  • Non-college educated voters: 38% nervous.
  • College-educated males: 34% curious.

Discussion Highlights:

• Ryan Graduski [28:09]: Expresses personal anxiety about AI's impact, questioning whether Americans share his concerns.

Notable Quote:

Brent Buchanan [28:51]: "51% negative emotions... driven by a gender gap."

[30:11] Buchanan: Suggests that non-college educated voters fear AI's impact on employment more than its potential benefits, particularly in white-collar sectors.

[30:26] Graduski: Reflects on parents' curiosity about AI, hinting at generational differences in AI perception.

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3. Big Tech Regulation: Overwhelming Support for Increased Oversight

Poll Question: "Should Big Tech and social media companies have more regulations?"

Poll Findings:

• Majority support across all demographics:
  • Women: 69%
  • Men: 64%
  • Republicans: 61%
  • Independents: 69%
  • Democrats: 71%
  • White voters: 67%
  • Black voters: 63%
  • Hispanic voters: 68%
  • Swing voters: 67%
  • Trump voters: 60%

Discussion Highlights:

• Graduski [32:38]: Notes the higher support for regulation among Harris voters compared to Trump voters, speculating on the influence of Elon Musk's political involvement.

Notable Quote:

Brent Buchanan [33:48]: "Democrats have always been for regulation... Republicans, especially newer MAGA voters, carry over skepticism about Big Tech from former Democratic ideologies."

[34:35] Graduski: Points out the inverse relationship between support for Big Tech regulation and concerns over AI, highlighting ideological divides.

[35:14] Buchanan: Emphasizes the historical alignment of Democrats with regulatory measures and the shift among Republicans, particularly MAGA supporters, toward a similar stance on Big Tech.

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4. Trade Tariffs: Divided Opinions on Economic Trade-offs

Poll Question: "Would you be willing to pay higher prices for more American jobs?"

Poll Findings:

• 47% Support paying higher prices for more domestic jobs.
• 43% Oppose.
• Demographic Breakdown:
  • Men: 58% support
  • Republicans: 73% support
  • White voters: 51% support
  • Parents: 50% support
  • Swing voters: 48% support
  • Harris supporters: 21% support
  • Black voters: 32% support
  • Women: Predominantly against

Discussion Highlights:

• Graduski [36:13]: Highlights the paradox where Republicans, who emphasize jobs and the economy, overwhelmingly support tariffs despite potential personal financial costs.

Notable Quote:

Brent Buchanan [36:13]: "73% of Republicans say that they're willing to pay higher prices for goods and services to bring back jobs."

[37:46] Graduski: Concludes that Democrats' opposition to tariffs stems from a perceived lack of support for American jobs, framing it as "Democrats hate American jobs."

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5. Insights on Polling and Public Perception

Discussion Highlights:

• Buchanan [39:32]: Advises listeners to become better consumers of polling data by evaluating poll demographics, observing trends over time, and understanding margins of error.

Notable Quote:

Buchanan [39:32]: "Become a better consumer of polling. Learn how to read them... look at the demographics."

[42:01] Graduski: Encourages participation in polls to enhance their accuracy and reliability.

[42:58] Buchanan: Reiterates the importance of credible polling practices and the role of public participation in achieving accurate results.

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Conclusion

The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of current American attitudes toward immigration, AI, Big Tech, and trade tariffs, underscored by robust polling data from Signal Polls. Brent Buchanan offers valuable insights into the complexities of public opinion and the importance of informed polling practices. Listeners gain a deeper understanding of how demographic factors intersect with political ideologies to shape national discourse on these critical issues.

[43:36] Resource for More Information: Listeners interested in Signal Polls can visit their website at Cygn Al or follow them on social media for further insights and data.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Brent Buchanan [17:05]: "There's not this massive elasticity in his image... his image is still hovering around 46% favorable."

• Brent Buchanan [21:07]: "43% of the country say that [reducing immigration by 50% or more]."

• Brent Buchanan [28:51]: "51% negative emotions... driven by a gender gap."

• Brent Buchanan [33:48]: "Democrats have always been for regulation... Republicans, especially newer MAGA voters, carry over skepticism about Big Tech from former Democratic ideologies."

• Brent Buchanan [36:13]: "73% of Republicans say that they're willing to pay higher prices for goods and services to bring back jobs."

• Brent Buchanan [39:32]: "Become a better consumer of polling. Learn how to read them... look at the demographics."

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Final Thoughts

This episode underscores the significance of nuanced polling in understanding America's stance on pressing issues. Brent Buchanan's expertise bridges the gap between raw data and meaningful societal insights, empowering listeners to engage more thoughtfully with public opinion surveys.

Transcript

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A numbers game with Ryan Graduski. Welcome back. I appreciate you all being here again this week. I know that everyone's busy with work and family and school and laundry and all the rest of it. And I know that you have very limited time sometimes, so listening to this podcast means quite a lot to me. I've realized being adult that the amount of hours needed to have a clean House, decent body and be good at your job is like 400 hours a week. It is not fair whatsoever. So I know that, I know that many of you have not had the opportunity to like and subscribe to this podcast and give me a five star rating. But there's always time this week and I hope you can find the time. You will all be my best friends. What I would say, growing up, all the time, people are like, oh, you met my best friend, get me a soda. But please give me a Like and subscribe. Like and subscribe. Give me a five star review. It would mean a lot. Okay. I always start this podcast off with a cultural reference and I'm gonna use the movie Arthur, which is my favorite comedy of all time. Dudley Moore looks at a prostitute he just picked up off the street and he says, well, Princess Gloria, tonight is New Year's Eve, third time this week. It's not the most famous line in the movie, but it invokes a general amount of happiness. And he has, in this moment, he's drunk, he's with the prostitute. Things are great. Very little things in life get me that excited, get me just that happy on a normal basis. And for me, because I am incredibly nerdy, that is polls, like really good polls, polls that are interesting polls that, that, you know, tell a good story with the national environment. I had the opportunity this week, I was reached out to by a pollster to ask questions for a national polling survey. Now these, this is like something that costs a lot of money to do and they were offering to do it, to be the podcast and to talk about it to my audience. So this is something very exclusive, this something very special. The pollster is Signal, which is Active Vote, which kind of ranks all the pollsters that come out during any given year. They ranked Signal as number 27 out of 136. That's very good. That's a very high number. They're a very well accredited Republican firm. Probably one of the top three, if you separate all the pollsters, probably one of the top three or four Republican polling firms in the business. They had a good track record, so I solidly believe in them and I'm excited to sit there and talk to them or get is Brent Buchanan, founder of Signal Polls. And I want to talk to the audience first about what questions I chose to ask and why I chose to ask them. So first and foremost, the first question I asked was, America brings in about 1 million legal immigrants per year. Is that number too high, too low or about right? Then I asked how many legal immigrants should America bring in per year, with the options being zero? 1000-002500-00500,000, 1 million, 5 million, or unlimited. Okay, here's why I asked that question. A lot of pollsters talk about immigration in esoteric. You know, I like as if they don't give the information beforehand. They talk about the idea without giving the information, give people the hard numbers. It's like when they say, do you support amnesty? If they all speak English and go to church and pay their taxes and have never committed a felony, well, then, like, yeah, a majority always say yes, but that's not how. How the actual process works. I want to talk about the actual thing, the actual hard numbers. So that's why I did. There's only one pollster recently in the last few years to ask a question like that, believe it or not. It was Cato, of all places, which is a libertarian think tank which dreams of the day that America will have no borders and we look like Angola or Honduras or something. They're the ones who asked the question. And they found in 2021 that 9% of Americans wanted no immigration at all. They wanted a complete and utter freeze, 44% wanted a 90 reduction or greater, and 61% wanted a 50% reduction or greater. So we'll talk to Signal, and we'll see what it looks like now with Donald Trump in charge and. And the borders much more secure. The second question I asked was about the future of artificial intelligence. This is a question that is really important to our nation because we're going to be. The United States is supposed to be on the forefront about artificial intelligence, and there's almost no pollsters asking about how Americans feel. Like, that's not ass. And. And I think that. I think that your opinion of it based either on your how you think you'll thrive in the environment or what you think the future looks like. Like, does it look like Rosie the Robot from the Jetsons doing chores? Because, I mean, who wouldn't want that? I. I would. Are we gonna get the Terminator? And is everyone, you know, gonna be in really rough shape on Judgment Day? I don't know. AI makes me nervous, but I don't know how the rest of the country feels. And I would love to know if I'm. It's just me being crazy or how everyone else's opinion is on it. I need a pulse check. The last question was also about tech, and somebody was about AI and tech and big tech and social media. The question was, is social media social Media has almost no regulations on it. People. I want everyone to realize that there's almost no regulations on social media. Utah became like the first state to say like kids under 18 can't access social media. They can't make a social media account. But I think that's like basically, that's very close to being basically it. I mean, you can't obviously sell things illegally on social media. You can't like put, you know, child's pornography or something like that. That, that's a national regulation. But as far as like regulating anything the section 280 or suing them or what they own of your data or reselling your data, there's no regulations. And Big Tech is very, very, very, very few. So I asked the question of should be Big Tech be more regulated? Of Elon Musk. It used to be that, that Democrats were very, for regulations. You know, you have the Kara Swishers of the world. The very liberals were like, yeah, let's, let's, you know, regulate big Tech. Those are the same people who were very excited about Big Tech, you know, when Steve Jobs was alive. And now Republicans who blamed everything on the 2020 election on Zuck Bucks, they're very pro Big Tech. So did people change sides? It's a good analysis of how do people feel on this issue. And the last question I asked was trade. I didn't want to use the word tariff just because it's, Trump said it's the most beautiful word in the English language. I had to like parse through how to approach the idea of tariffs and about Trump's push for tariffs without saying the word tariff. So the question I said was would you be willing to pay higher prices for more American jobs? Would you trade prices for jobs? I think this is very important because regardless of what happens ultimately with these tariffs, I don't think this is going to go away. During the Trump administration, Biden was very supportive tariffs. China is a very, is our, is our geopolitical adversary and we need to be more conscious of re industrializing the United States. So what can people, what can politicians get? What is their ultimate how, how much can they, can they push out on this without getting slapped back by voters? So those are my four questions and I am very excited to hear what the responses were and talk to Brent Buchanan. So coming up, this is my conversation with pollster Signal owner Brump Buchanan. Stay tuned.

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Free [e-mail] iheart my guest this week is Brent Buchanan. He is the founder of Signal polling firm. Thank you for being here, Brent.

[Clorox Representative]

Hey, great to be with y'all, Ryan.

[Ryan Graduski]

Brent, when did you found Signal and why did you start in the polling industry?

[Clorox Representative]

Well, actually didn't start in the polling industry, oddly enough. I started just running campaigns, which is, I think a lot of people's story who are in this world is they just volunteered at some point. Thought this is pretty fun, maybe I could make a living with it. And so that's where my story started. Actually started on a mayoral campaign in Montgomery, Alabama. We got absolutely trounced. They don't elect Republicans in Montgomery. And I was too naive to know that and just thought we could will our way into winning the election. And we did not. And then went on to work for a Greek restaurant owner who was running for county commission against a Republican incumbent. And he was a Republican, too. And we beat the guy. And that was my second taste of a campaign, was actually victory. And he paid me in cash in baklava, which was a pretty good arrangement for a single dude.

[Ryan Graduski]

But can I just, can I tell you for one second? I worked for a guy named Stamatis Lakakis who ran for the state assembly. And every third day, I think we went to a Greek pastry. I mean, I was eating so much Greek food for the entire summer of, I guess it was 2014, and it was a million Greek pastries. So this is a. This was this, this. I feel this. I feel this story for sure right now, a hundred percent. So that was your first race ever worked on.

[Clorox Representative]

It was. And then ended up starting a firm. We were kind of a jack of all trades. Basically, if you were willing to pay us for it and it was legal, we would do it. And realized that you can't really take that model outside of your home state. This is back in. Still living in Montgomery at the time and really landed on polling after the 2010 cycle. When I saw that it was getting more expensive, it was getting harder to do. I loved the strategic aspect of what you get to do as a pollster. And it was more scalable. You Know, I could work on a lot more races as a pollster than I could managing or running or being the consultant on a race that there's.

[Ryan Graduski]

So many negative connotations to polling. Your poll deter firm did very well in the last cycle, in the 2024 cycle. How does one manage a firm? Well, how do you create a formula that works? Because very few do.

[Clorox Representative]

Well, the first is to separate private from public pollsters, because we're not the same. So when you see a Marist poll, or, you know, some somebody who's only doing polling to release it and get attention, which, I mean, we put out a few polls, but you're seeing barely the scratching of a surface of what we're doing. And so that's the first thing, is that we are not a public pollster, so we actually have an economic incentive to be right. Some of these public pollsters, they can be wrong over and over again. They get coverage over and over again. And I don't know who really funds them. It always makes me ask that question when I see certain numbers come out. But those of us who do private polling, who are being hired by campaigns and corporations and committees and caucuses to help guide them through, what do I say? Who do I say it to? How do I say it best? So that's a big differentiation between the two. The second is that one of the most important pieces of polling is the actual getting respondents from voters. And that is in our world and our competitors, most people outsource that function. So they write a script and then they send it off to a call center and a texting vendor, and then they wait for those people to do the survey collection, and then it comes back and they build their reports, give it to the clients. We decided over a decade ago that that was such an important piece of the process that we needed to control every aspect of it. So our firm is larger than, I think, any other Republican polling firm by headcount, because it takes a lot more effort and people to control that part of the process. And that is really the magic piece of all what.

[Ryan Graduski]

So you okay, this. The whole basis of this podcast episode is you did a national poll. Is it released public? It will be probably released publicly by the time we come to air, which will be Monday. So what are some general themes that you've seen about how people feel at President Donald Trump's performance in this poll?

[Clorox Representative]

I think the first is that there's not this massive elasticity in his image. And if you were watching public polling, you would think that Donald Trump Started out really good. Everybody loved him, and now everybody hates him. But that's just not what our polling data shows.

[Ryan Graduski]

I got a call today from a friend who was a Republican elected official, and he's very upset with the tariffs. And he said to me, trump's approval is probably 32% now. And I was like, no. Oh, sorry. Go ahead, go ahead. But you're 100% right? Very little elasticity. Sorry.

[Clorox Representative]

Yeah, we've seen a slight degradation in his image from, you know, a couple weeks after his inauguration to now. But I think if he'd literally just gotten into office and sat in the Oval Office and done nothing, we would have seen a degradation in his image, because there's. There's a sugar rush, There's a high that comes off of a campaign and of the attention you get from it, and then you got to go govern. And I think considering that all that he has done and all the topics that he's broached in this time, that he's been in office for less than three months at this point, that the fact that his image is still hovering around 46% favorable is way better than he ever was, even at the beginning of his first term. And that's one thing people forget about. Polling is. Polling is not just a data point in time. A poll is a data point in time, but polling is different. And that is watching what happens over time and comparing it to things that matter. And so when you look at things in terms of his first term and his second term, he is doing significantly better now in his image than he was at this point in 2017.

[Ryan Graduski]

And even though the tariffs aren't popular, certainly not in the media standards, it has an overall. I mean, people have a much more positive opinion of him than they do some of, like the tariffs, for example. Right.

[Clorox Representative]

Completely. And a lot of people just trust him that, okay, he said he was going to do this during the campaign. I don't really understand why he's doing it, but I trust that he's got a reason for it.

[Ryan Graduski]

Right. Okay, so now I want to get to the questions that I asked, because this is what I'm so excited about, because I worked on campaigns for almost 20 years and just. I'm a nerd, so I get really excited by it. So the. I went over the top of the show, the questions that I asked, but I want to go first through it, and we'll. We'll talk about it. So the first question being the question over levels of legal immigration in the country, this is something that I don't think pollsters ever ask enough about. Gallup does. Once a year, twice a year, but that's about it regularly. The first question was, do you think that the levels of legal immigration are too high, too small, or just right? 38% said they were fine with the current levels, 37% they wanted to reduce, 11% they wanted increased. But when you ask the actual number desired, it was a very different result. Almost 9%, 8.5% of Americans wanted zero immigration at all, a total freeze. 17% wanted a 90% reduction, about 100,000 a year because we've currently taken a million in total. 43% of Americans wanted a 50% or greater reduction of legal immigration, which is, if you said that on the news, you'd be called an extremist. I know I've been called an extremist, but 43% of the country say that. And about 60% of the country want somewhere between like a 50 and 90% reduction. So somewhere more than 50%, 50% of them are current numbers, but less than we currently have. I know that's sounded confusing. So 60% though, favor some sort of reduction of legal immigration. I just want to break it down really quickly and we'll talk about it. 55% of women, 61% of men, 71% of Republicans, 57% of independents, 47% of Democrats, 60% of whites, 57% of blacks, 53% of Hispanics, 58% of swing voters, and 73% of all Trump supporters. Does that shock you?

[Clorox Representative]

Not in the least. And this is why I really love that we did this as two separate questions, because I think it susses something out that we see a lot of times in polling is it's a lot easier to get agreement on a concept and then when you go throw numbers behind it, people's, it's like you fry their brain and they don't know how to answer it per se. Because if you look at these two questions, they actually somewhat conflict. Where you have 38% of people say that it is about right at a million legal immigrants a year. But then when you go look at the number of people who said a million to 5 million, 5 to 10 are unlimited, it's less than 38%. So you, you even have a differential there of the number of people who, as you mentioned, are more likely to be Democrats or left leaning voters are saying, yes, it's the right amount or we need more. But then when you get to the actual numbers, even though we just told them the number in the last question, like the question itself said a million legal, is this just right? Too little, too much? And then when we broke out the numbers in the exact next question, you get even fewer people that tell us it's a million or more that they're good with. And I think this is one of the challenges with communication in general. And it's one of the things that Donald Trump is really good at, is we like to talk about, especially those of us who enjoy policy, you know, what should the number be about abortion, how many weeks is it that it should be legal at? And voters don't think in terms of these hard construct numbers. They think in terms of principles and of concepts. And these two questions that you had us ask, I think plays that out perfectly, that if we're going to win messaging battles, let's not get bogged down in numbers.

[Ryan Graduski]

That's so interesting. Now there was, and I think the thing I found super interesting was that there was really not huge stark differences between groups aside from partisanship. So Hispanics are very close to blacks, Blacks were pretty close to whites, men were fairly close to women. There wasn't this huge surge in one area, as I expected. And Even among Democrats, 47% of Democrats is a lot. That's not what you would assume by hearing the, the media narrative. And then you'd watch clips of like, you know, you know, black voters in Chicago who are, I mean, 99 times out of 100 a Democrat sitting there and demanding that illegal immigration, illegal immigrants be deported. You see the white people up in, up in Cape Cod, you know, waving goodbye to illegal immigrants that Joe Biden brought in. So there's a, just a constant conflict between what is being presented and then these numbers over here. And what you kind of see from these news clip is you're like, there is probably something bigger than this.

[Clorox Representative]

Yeah. And a lot of it plays into educational attainment. And this is something I talk about a lot, the diploma divide. And that is that 30 years ago, Republicans were the party of the highly educated, higher income individuals and those folks are more likely not Democrats now. And Republicans are the party of the working class. And when you do look at this question on construct of educational attainment, you start to see a big dividend almost as much as you see on the partisanship because they're so intercorrelated now, this diploma divide and partisanship. So if, if you're a non college educated voter, then you are 30, over a third of those voters are saying a hundred thousand or less, which there's not A lot of other groups that we look at where it, you would have a third of the voters saying 100,000 or fewer to none. A hundred thousand to none. And then when you look at college educated voters, that's where you start to get more that are saying that it should be somewhere between half a million to 5 million. But there's very few who say any number beyond that. And that's, I think the story here is that you've got two Americas and the tariff argument I think is two Americas. Also if you're highly educated and highly invested in the stock market, then yeah, you're freaking out. Well, you may not be freaking out today because it's April 9th. You were freaking out yesterday. April 8th. You know, third massive four figure drop in a, in a day. But regular Americans aren't worried about that, but they are worried about this immigration topic because they see it as supplanting their ability to earn an income.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well and so before we get to tariffs because it's one of the questions, but the thing I wanted to ask was so your firm says quote, for Republican members of Congress concerned about being primaried, a majority of Republican voters want to see legal immigration reduced to 250,000 or less annually. You also wrote Trump made major inroads with in November with non white men. 73% of non white men who voted for Trump favor immigration reduction. That is something that I did not expect that number for non white men to be that high. I owe, I know Republican voters, I know them my gut, I know how to, how to campaign to Republican voters. It's very, it's something that I just, I was born bred and you know, and live my whole life as a Republican voter. But, but the non, the non white number being non white men who voted for Trump, it, it feels like ideology is surpassing race, surpassing. I mean maybe there's college attainment is having some differentiating but forever racial identity superseded that of partisanship. And now or, or political ideology, now political ideology supersedes that of race. That's actually I feel like a good thing completely.

[Clorox Representative]

And going back to that first race that I worked on for a mayoral campaign in Montgomery, Alabama. I went and knocked doors in the, in the 100% black part of town thinking I could Earn votes there 25 years ago. And that was so dumb of me because I guarantee our, our Republican leaning candidate got none of those votes that I wouldn't worked so hard for. But if I did that exact same thing today, they're willing to have a conversation and it's because Democrats have gone so far to the left on all kinds of topics. And because you've got these highly educated white voters that are now more the base of the Democratic Party than anything else. They, they are so liberal and progressive. And these non white voters, there are very few of them that consider themselves liberal and progressive. They're much more likely to say they're moderate to somewhat conservative. And so it's, it's kind of like that meme that Elon Musk posted before he got involved in politics last year or the year before, whenever it was where he shows himself as a stick figure in the same place and the left keeps moving further away from him and calling him a radical and calling him a right winger. And that's really what's happening with these non white populations is they're sitting there saying we're moderate to somewhat conservative. And you used to be moderate to somewhat conservative, but now you're insanely leftist and you left us.

[Ryan Graduski]

Right. And they're economically centrist. And the Republican Party has become more economically centrist under Trump. The. The. Yeah, I mean, I can't believe Latinx didn't really work to win over Hispanics.

[Clorox Representative]

I'm shocked by that pronouns or anything else.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, the. Okay, the second thing that I asked you guys about, which was I'm very anxious about is AI I don't think it's I. Aside from Corporations polling on AI I never see a question about AI ever being asked. So your poll found that 33% of respondents, when I asked the one you asked, how does the future of AI make you feel? 33 said nervous, 26 said curious. I guess that means like they want to see where it goes. 18 said anxious and 12 said excited. 11 were unsure. That's a lot of that's more negative connotation than I expected. What are your thoughts?

[Clorox Representative]

51% negative emotions. I mean, two of the emotions were obviously negative, one is kind of up in the air. The curiosity is more a positive emotion, but I wouldn't say it's anywhere near like excited from an emotional standpoint. And so 51% of voters answered nervous or anxious, which are both negative emotions. And one of the most fascinating things is that is really driven by a gender gap. So women are much more likely to say nervous. 36% of women said nervous, only 29% of males did. And on curiosity, 31% of males curious, 22% of females curious. So there's a real gender gap here. And then taking that further into what we were talking about earlier on the Diploma divide. There's also a really big diploma divide on this question. If you were non college educated, then you are. About 38% said that they were nervous about this. And then when you go look at college educated voters, especially college educated males, 34% said they were curious about this. So I think if we were to really go Freudian on this, this has to do with like, where do I fit in when AI comes in? And college educated voters feel more prepared for that than non college educated voters. Which is fascinating because it's not going to replace a plumber.

[Ryan Graduski]

Right?

[Clorox Representative]

That's exactly what you say.

[Ryan Graduski]

Because it's going after white collar jobs, AI primarily. And that's who would be affected. The other population that was excited about this were parents. Why do you think that is?

[Clorox Representative]

I think part of it is that the demographics. And that's one thing when you're reading a poll, you have to ask yourself is this causative or correlative? And I think that that is more causative that they parents should happen to be younger. So if you go look at young youth answering these questions, you're going to see about as high numbers as you do in the parents. Because parents are younger than, you know, some 70 year old answering the survey.

[Ryan Graduski]

I thought maybe because they don't want to do homework with their kids anymore. And they were like, oh, this is great. But I think it also goes back to like, what's your vision of AI Is it Rosie the Robot who's going to make you dinner every night and do the dishes, or is it the Terminator? And that's really where, I think that's where the mentality divide is. I hope this question is asked more because it is part of our future and we, we don't, we don't talk about it. So enough, I think, I think people are talking about, you know, J.D. vansky, that's Vice president and we're gonna be a leader in it and kind of, I guess there's no way to avert it, but we don't talk about it enough as like what the ramification could be. Speaking of tech, the other question I asked was because this is something I've also become very passionate about in the last year or so. I asked, should big tech and social media companies, do they need more regulation? Because they have virtually none now. People don't sit there and says there's virtually no regulations over big TEC or over especially social media. 69% of women, 64% of men, 61% of Republicans, 69% of independents, 71% of Democrats, 67% of white voters, 63% of black voters, 68% Hispanic voters, 66% of Hispanics, 74% of Harris voters, 60% of Trump voters, and 67% of swing voters said, yes, it is overwhelmingly on one side. The one thing that was like glaringly obvious to me though, is that 60% for Trump voters versus 74% for Harris voters. Is that the Elon Musk effect? Because Republicans were gung ho on regulating big tech, breaking up some tech companies, making Twitter a public platform 2020 like that was, that was not that long ago.

[Clorox Representative]

I think you got to rewind the clock even further than that. Like, imagine if we'd asked this question about almost any emerging industry 30 years ago and you would have seen Democrats saying regulate the heck out of it, and Republicans saying regulation is bad. I don't care who it's on. And so the way I read this question, the results of this question when it came back is we now have a unique issue where Democrats have always been for regulation. You know, if it walks or moves, regulate it. And Republicans who are now former Democrats have taken some of their ideology on certain things with them when they left the Democratic Party. And I think regulation and the fact that big, fill in the blank, anything is negative is really a carryover from these former Democrats, now Republican MAGA voters on this issue. And now big tech and really business in general kind of finds itself on an island because Democrats still hate big everything. And Republicans, these newer Republicans have taken with them this, you know, you know, if it's, if it's big, it's probably bad mindset with them from the Democratic Party.

[Ryan Graduski]

I hear you, but I think that, you know, the 2016 election was so blamed on Russia buying Facebook ads, and the 2020 election was so blamed on Musk, but not Musk. And 2024 had to do with Elon Musk. Like that's three elections in a row where tech played some part in the narrative as why one side lost over the other. And interestingly, in your survey, college educated voters were more likely to support regulations on big tech, which they likely either have stock in or work for or could work for than non college educated voters who would, who are more, who are more nervous at AI. There's a lot of inverse opinions about the two. Do you see where I'm going with this?

[Clorox Representative]

Yeah, I do.

[Ryan Seacrest]

I.

[Clorox Representative]

You also got to look at, you know, the highest number here is female college educated voters. That's also the largest demographic that votes Democrat. So this is Another causation correlation conversation where they are just much more likely to be Democrats, the higher educated you are than the lower educated you are. And so, but I think if we were to ask a question on the next survey and have a conversation of do you think big tech and social media is good or bad for us, that we'd probably say most people, even though they use it all the time, they may be watching us on a big tech platform right now, would also agree that they don't think it's positive for them.

[Ryan Graduski]

100%. I completely agree with you. That's the people who sit there and say McDonald's is terrible as they're ordering a Big Mac. The last, the last question that I, that I was able to ask was about would you support it has to do a lot with tariffs. Would you support increased prices for more jobs domestically? And here were the findings. This was more split than the other answers. 47% said they'd support higher prices for more domestic jobs. 43% said they were against it. And there was a huge gender gap. 58% of men, 73% of Republicans, 51 of white voters, 50% of parents, and 48 of swing voters were for it to only 20, sorry, 4, higher prices for more jobs. Only 21 of Kamala Harris supporters were for it. Only 32% of black voters are for it. And women were very against it. Is this has to be a partisan thing related to Trump, right? Or is it an ideology thing?

[Clorox Representative]

That was one that I asked myself that exact same question before this interview in reading the results, and I could not come up with an answer for it because you would think that Republicans who are saying jobs and economy and inflation are their top issue are going to not answer another question where they say I'm willing to pay inflated prices for some other benefit, that I will trade off higher cost for something else. But these independents, man, they split right down the middle. 45% support this, 46% oppose this. They just kind of prove their name right there that they're independent because on the partisan edges, you've got a complete inversion of support and oppose whether you're a Republican or a Democrat. And I would have thought every time we do a poll, I like to read through the script and in my mind, guess what I think the responses are going to be. And if they don't come back that way, that's the first place I go dig into information to figure out why. And I still have not come up with an answer as to why. 73% of Republicans say that they're willing to pay higher prices for goods and services to bring back jobs. But when you think about it in the context of what is Donald Trump doing with tariffs and how is he messaging tariffs that aligns so much with this, this survey response where people are willing to, Republicans are willing to pay higher prices if it means more American jobs, and Democrats do not want to pay higher prices if it means American jobs. I think the big takeaway is Democrats hate American jobs. That's where I'm gonna.

[Ryan Graduski]

That is. That is a great way of pushing as a slogan. Do you think that it's also the sense of the country too, like, as far as feelings towards the country go? Because I read through your other, your other questions that you had that I didn't ask, and I won't go into all those, but you. One was interesting was on the economy, where it was either a majority or a plurality of Democrats believe we were currently in a recession, which, like, we're not. I mean, you could sit there and say, the market's down, market's up, whatever, or like you don't like Trump's tariffs, but we're not in a recession. So is this just what they believe because they hope, they're hoping for it to come through true or they read a lot of narratives on Ms. NBC and cnn. What do you like? Do you have any thoughts on that?

[Clorox Representative]

Well, magically, their response was that 56% said it happened within the last three months. Which I wonder what happened in the last three months. Maybe we got a new president.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah.

[Clorox Representative]

And so it is a, it's a gut response reaction to Trump. It has nothing to do with the fact that they actually believe we're in a recession. They just don't like the fact that Donald Trump's in charge.

[Ryan Graduski]

What's the one thing before we wrap up, what's the one thing about polling that Americans should know that they don't? What's the one thing they could sit there and say? Because, I mean, I love cross tabs, but everyone says, don't read them. And I'm like, I'm able to parse them a little better than the average person. I always say they're a snapshot in time. They're not, you know, the prediction of the entire future. But what's something that people could take? We are a nation that is obsessed with polling despite we are obsessed with polling. And then we love dismantling polling when it doesn't say what we like. Like, what is. What is something people should know about the polling industry. And polls in general.

[Clorox Representative]

Well, what's the saying? Lies. Damn lies and statistics. And, and I think that's where most people end up landing on, on polling a poll. Some, some of them are just flat out wrong. But what I would say is. Yeah, yeah, become a. Selzer said that.

[Ryan Graduski]

Senior citizen women were voting 70 for Kamala Harris, white evangelical senior citizen women. I was like, like this poll is not correct. I'm sorry, go ahead.

[Clorox Representative]

Yeah, no, no, you're spot on. And so I think it's 1. Become a better consumer of polling. So if you're going to pay attention to polls, learn how to read them, because the top line is, is a very small portion of the story. The thing that I always recommend to folks is start at the bottom of the poll and work your way up. And what I mean by that is look at the demographics. If you look at the demographics and they don't pass the smell test, don't even look at the rest of the poll. And so if you start thinking about polling from the terms of is this a good poll to start with, I think you'll understand polling better. The second is pay attention to trends over time, not just small data points. Because even the best pollsters, there's a reason that in polling you'll see a margin of error, which is whatever your number you're looking at, it can be that percent higher or lower. And that's another piece of reading polls. People say, well, the polls got it wrong. They never get it wrong if you look at it within a margin of error. So if the poll says Donald Trump's going to get 45% and it's a 3% margin of error if he gets 48%. That poll was, was statistically correct. The second is that there's always a 95% confidence interval on public opinion polling. And that means that if you ran that poll a hundred times, 95% of the time, you're going to get the same results within the margin of error. It also means that 5% of the time you are going to get numbers outside of the margin of error. And even the best pollster cannot 100% of the time replicate everything. You know, we see this sometimes in our polling where we'll, we'll collect a flawless sample that looks exactly like the demographics and population that we're intending to survey. And then we look at a number and we're like, that just doesn't seem right. And we cannot explain it in statistically and scientifically, that is likely a 5% instance right there where the other 95% of the time, it's going to be right. And so, you know, don't look on all of polling as this horrible industry that gets stuff wrong all the time. And then the last thing I would recommend is if you get polled, take the freaking poll. Like that is how you help poll and get better is participating.

[Ryan Graduski]

My dad all the time was like, I got call for a poll. I hung up the phone. I go, why? He's like. I was like, but why? I have a friend who does the same thing. I'm like, what are you doing? I would, I would run over someone to answer a poll. But I'm, I'm built differently. And that's 100% true with the numbers. You know, when the, when the polls were coming out in the 2020 election and there was like six public polls that had Trump at like 19, 20% of the black vote, the first, like three times was like, ah, whatever, this is kind of off. And then like the fourth time I was like, maybe this is right. And then the sixth, I'm like, okay, this is probably when there was a, I think was the ABC Ipsis poll, which was black only voters, and they were coming out with the same number. I was like, this is actually probably real. Like at this point it's probably real when it's happened six times across different firms and they're all coming up the same thing. And there's, there's, there's institutions that are solely looking at, you know, this one or that one. But anyway, where can people learn more about signal polls? Or can they contact you if they want to hire you? What, what should they reach out to?

[Clorox Representative]

So our website is Cygn Al. So it's our company name, which is spelled differently than most people. Spell the word signal. And then also on social at Cygn Al.

[Ryan Graduski]

Brent, thank you for being on this podcast. I really appreciate. It was a great conversation.

[Clorox Representative]

Well, thanks for the opportunity, Ryan.

[Ryan Graduski]

You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. We'll be right back.

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[Ryan Graduski]

This week from the Ask Me Anything segment of the podcast, which by the way, please join Ask Me anything about politics or social media or culture or the economy. If I don't know the answer, I will look up the answer and I'll give you the best analysis possible. Email ryanumbersgamepodcast.com that's ryanumbers plural numbers numbersgamepodcast.com this question actually was texted me repeatedly by my Aunt Carol. So I have to answer it because I think she's going to blow a gasket if I don't. She's listening right now, so thank you. And Carol, she says to me, her question was, and she lives in New Jersey, why have property taxes increased to fund our schools while test scores have declined? That is a since getting involved in the 1776 project pack and then the foundation and then and dealing so much with education, it's hard to even put this into words, how frustrated people feel, especially people who have, have maybe more adult children or are younger adults themselves who remember education being much better 20 years ago or 15 years ago. And there's not a simple answer from it. For it, there's not a simple answer why test scores have declined. Part of the reason is that the bulk of money going to schools is not going to things that make people smarter. There's a lot of money in administrators and vice principals, in outside tech companies being involved in, you know, with the idea of it improving and, and teachers unions, which is the largest organization, anything to do with schools does not advocate on part of children. They advocate on behalf of adults, people who work in the buildings. And a lot of administrators have used education as guinea pigs. And there is, there's as much as people when I started the 1776 Project PAC, there was a lot of people saying, why are you politicizing education? I to quote Billy Joel, I didn't start the fire. It has been politicized for decades, going back to when George W. Bush was trying to put phonics in classrooms and liberals opposed to that, the Pledge of Allegiance, the prayer, I mean, everything, there's a lot of politics in it. And There's a lot of nonsense in it and I think that's, that's hurt kids too. But I think that the funding, how all this new money has gone into schools has not always been positive. I don't think it's always gone for the benefit of the kids. I think that the main drivers are lack of parental involvement, especially as people have to work more just to survive. I, I get that. But I think that also a big part of it is the way that struck schools are struct for their funding schools. If a school, if a school is like, okay, we're not going to pass kids forward if it's failing, if they're failing, we're going to sit there and give it a hard stop. And a school in Chicago or a school in Baltimore failed, 99% of all students from one year to the next. That principal will probably be fired. That school will probably be shut down. The incentive is to look at graduation rates or college admission, which is for some places not that hard to do. Not to look at, hey, can they read? Can they do math? Can they do science? If we got to a place in our country where 90% of the country could do 8th grade math, reading and science, we would be in a, the smartest nation in the entire. We're already one of the smartest nations in the whole world, but we would be arms and legs above everybody else in a way that we're not now. So I think that that is a big, big part of it is the incentive is to pass kids forward even if they're failing because they don't want to show what failing rates actually look like. That's a big part of it. And then I think the DEI structure, I think that the, the influence of unions and the influence of, of, of politics in, in the way that's been going from the left because for the right, it's always been a school choice, school choice, school choice. And maybe I'll do an episode on school choice soon. Well, and it's not been about the 85% of kids who go to public school. I think that that's, I think that that's really the main, main part of it. But failing kids forward is a huge, huge part of the problem. And that's dealt with a lot of the financial structure of schools. Anyway, thank you so, so much. I appreciate you listening to the episode. Education is not about money, it's about how it's applied. So that's what you should learn. 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