It's a Numbers Game: Is NYC Heading for Financial Collapse? The Truth About Mamdani’s Budget

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It’s a Numbers Game: Is NYC Heading for Financial Collapse? The Truth About Mamdani’s Budget

Host: Ryan Graduski
Guest: Seth Barron (New York Post columnist, author)
Release Date: May 15, 2026

Overview

This episode, guest-hosted by Ryan Graduski, probes the political and fiscal pulse of America, with a major focus on the supposed budget "miracle" in New York City under Mayor Zora Mamdani. The show navigates hot-button topics including redistricting battles, key polling updates for pivotal races, shifts in party dynamics, and, most profoundly, the controversial financial maneuvers now shaping NYC’s future. The guest, Seth Barron, joins to break down what’s really happening beneath the surface of Mandani’s much-hyped budget “success.”

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Redistricting Chaos Across Southern States

(03:00–13:30)

• Mississippi: Delay in redistricting means Democrats retain their lone seat for now.
• South Carolina: GOP’s failed attempt at eliminating Democrat Jim Clyburn’s seat; special sessions in flux.
• Alabama & Louisiana: New maps likely to reduce Dem seats by one each, but no complete GOP sweep due to internal party politics.
  • “It’s kind of curious why...Governor Jeff Landry seems to be settling some political scores, making sure certain Republicans cannot get an easy to win seat.” (06:20, Ryan Graduski)
• Georgia: Gov. Brian Kemp surprises by converting Atlanta-local elections to nonpartisan and signaling new redistricting; potential for tweaking a southern Dem district but not Atlanta strongholds due to demographic trends.

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2. Election Polling Snapshots

(13:30–17:20)

State Races

• Michigan Senate: GOP’s Mike Rogers leads Democrat El-Sayed in two recent polls, but both are tight.
  • “Rogers is not really going down without a fight. He’s leading 42 to 41.” (14:25)
• Michigan Governor: John James, GOP, trails Jocelyn Benson.
• New York Governor: Kathy Hochul leads by 16 points but faces dissatisfaction, especially around handling of NYC.
• New Hampshire: Sununu name gives GOP some hope, but Dems still lead; unexpectedly, North Carolina is even less competitive for the GOP in Senate polling.
  • "New Hampshire is a closer reach for Republicans than North Carolina, which is a very uneven thing..." (16:30)
• Los Angeles Mayoral Primary: Surprise surge of reality TV star Spencer Pratt (GOP), now second in the polls, with Karen Bass leading. Unusually strong early Republican turnout narrows Dem advantage.

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3. NYC’s Budget "Miracle": The Zora Mamdani Controversy

(21:22–33:44)

Guest Segment: Seth Barron (New York Post, author of "Weaponize")

Budget Gap Origins

• Mandani claims to have closed a massive $12 billion deficit without cutting services, a feat treated by the media and left-wing supporters as genius-level governance.
  • “Democrats believe that Zora Mandani has discovered a new type of math and they’re very excited about it.” (02:37, Ryan Graduski)
  • “It’s the first year where people are pretending to believe it. There’s all of this noise about, ‘Oh my God, Mamdani saved the city.’” (22:06, Seth Barron)
• In reality, much of the gap is due to previous mayoral overspending, and is “resolved” partly by higher-than-expected tax revenues—not fiscal wizardry.

The Real Solutions (or Lack Thereof)

• State Bailout: Governor Hochul funneled $4 billion to NYC, effectively spreading the city’s overspending over all NY taxpayers.
  • “She gave $4 billion. So it's taxpayers from upstate, from Long Island, from all the rest of New York State that is helping spend what Mayor Mandani wants to spend.” (24:26, Ryan Graduski)
• Barron points out the hypocrisy: progressive taxation is about richer areas subsidizing the rest, yet Mandani attempts to frame it as unfair to NYC.

Pension Deferral Gimmicks

• NYC defers required pension payments, kicking the can to 2033—an act that’s fiscally risky and mirrors what led to disasters in Chicago and Puerto Rico.
  • “He’s just deferring payments. He’s not putting the money in. And he said, like, we’ll put it in later.” (26:11, Seth Barron)
  • "If you do it routinely, then it becomes a disaster because it very quickly becomes practically insurmountable." (27:41, Seth Barron)

Education and Teacher Union Politics

• Promise of reducing class sizes delayed; nonetheless, city plans to hire 1,000 new teachers despite declining student enrollment—appeasing unions at taxpayers' expense.
  • “He’s planning to hire a thousand more teachers for students that don’t exist.” (28:56, Ryan Graduski)

The Bigger Plan?

• Skepticism about whether the true endgame is a federal bailout, echoing past NYC defaults and other troubled cities.
• Mandani’s projected “savings” rely on hazy promises of “capturing inefficiencies,” corporate-speak with little grounding in reliable cuts.
  • “He’s just making stuff up. It’s really funny.” (33:33, Seth Barron)

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4. The Left’s Drive for Centralized Control

(33:44–36:08)

• Seth Barron discusses his book "Weaponize," which explores how progressive institutions seize centralized power at the expense of local autonomy, especially in sectors like education, housing, and policing.
  • “They want to have master planners in charge of everything as opposed to, like, locals.” (34:39, Seth Barron)
  • "Think globally, act locally — it really means just do what the global vision says, and act accordingly." (35:45, Seth Barron)

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On NYC Budget Claims:

  • “This is the first year where people are pretending to believe it.” (22:17, Seth Barron)
  • "He’s just deferring payments. He’s not putting the money in. And he said, like, we’ll put it in later." (26:11, Seth Barron)
  • “He’s just making stuff up. It’s really funny.” (33:33, Seth Barron)

• On Redistricting:

  • “Clyburn is a very, very important Democrat, probably the most important Democrat in the South. He ... carries immense weight and influence in that state. So him being gone would be a huge blow to Democrats in South Carolina.” (05:00, Ryan Graduski)

• On Political Dynamics:

  • “House majorities run through blue and purple states. They don’t run just through red states.” (14:50, Ryan Graduski)

• On Teacher Unions:

  • “Teachers anchor a labor movement that provides a model for all working people.” (30:08, Ryan quoting Weingarten)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamps | |----------------------------------------------------------|--------------| | Redistricting news from MS, SC, AL, LA, GA | 03:00–13:30 | | Election polling in MI, NY, NH, LA Mayoral race | 13:30–17:20 | | Republican turnout analysis in California | 17:20–20:50 | | Interview: Seth Barron on NYC budget, Mandani critique | 21:22–33:44 | | Pension/Teacher union politics in NYC | 26:11–31:35 | | “Weaponize” and progressive centralization | 33:44–36:08 |

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Tone & Style

• Direct, skeptical, data-driven: Graduski delivers sharp, sometimes sardonic commentary backed by polling and policy wonkery.
• Humorous, pointed: Barron provides dry wit and incisive political analysis, undercutting official NYC narratives.
• Audience-aware: Frequent asides contextualize for conservative and policy-focused listeners.

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a revealing critique of NYC’s much-publicized budget “rescue,” positioning it as sleight-of-hand politics masking deeper fiscal trouble. Redistricting, union politics, and centralization of power are recurring themes—unpacked with facts and an acerbic bite. For listeners seeking substance over slogans, this episode unmasks the “numbers game” of big city governance and electioneering.

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For more details and to catch specific narratives, revisit segments at the provided timestamps.

Transcript

[Ryan Graduski]

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[Ryan Graduski]

Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you for being here, everybody. We have to go over something today. Democrats believe that Zora Mandani has discovered a new type of math and they're very excited about it. But first, let's talk about some redistricting news, some polling for everybody. I know that everyone's getting tired of redistricting information because I'm getting tired of redistricting information. It is like a yo, yo. One thing's happening one day, one thing's not happening the next day. I'm very tired of it. I want to cover AI. I want to cover data centers. I want to cover foreign news. Not that anyone cares about foreign news except for like eight of you, but I like to cover it. But anyway, I can't cover any of that because we are interested in the midterms and we have to talk about it because it impacts the midterms. I have some also some great gossip during the Ask Me Anything segment for about a candidate running for office in Texas that is very, very juicy. We'll get to that later. All right. Now let's talk about the redistricting news. First of all, the governor of Mississippi, Tate Reeves, he was very ambitious that Mississippi was going to redistrict. He has canceled the special session for redistricting ahead of the 2026 election. He said the plans are to redistrict sometime during 2027, which means that the elections will happen. The map will change in 2028. So no extra Republican district out of Mississippi as originally thought was going to happen. The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the opinion finding that Mississippi's current Supreme Court map violated the Voting Rights Act. So it's saying it must be redrawn. It will happen. It's not going to be drawn in time for the midterms. That means Democrats lone seat, Benny Thomas's seat will stay Democratic going into the midterms. Next up is South Carolina legislators needed a 2/3 majority to approve a new measure that would have changed their maps and basically taken out Clyburn. See Jim Clyburn, the lone Democrat in that state seat. Five Republicans in the state Senate joined all the Democrats and killed that measure. Now, Governor Henry McMasters is expected to call a special session to get around those five state senators, all which were Republican. And it looks like South Carolina could still do this, but who knows? Things are moving very chaotically in that state. I'll get back to you when we figured out Clyburn is a very, very important Democrat, probably the most important Democrat in the South. He is, as I said before, responsible for Joe Biden being the nominee in 2020. He carries immense weight and influence in that state. So him being gone would be a huge blow to Democrats in South Carolina. Okay. Over in Alabama and Louisiana, they've basically approved their maps, which would take away two of the four Democratic seats in, in those two states, one in each state. Now, they didn't go for the full monty. They didn't go for the full Republican slate. And it's kind of curious why. In Louisiana's case, Governor Jeff Landry seems to be setting, settling some political scores, making sure certain Republicans cannot get an easy to win seat. That seems pretty obvious. Over in Alabama, K. Ivey, the governor there, didn't want to do any redistricting whatsoever. She's kind of been forced even to get to this point of taking away one Democratic seat. And she's been very supportive of keeping Terry Sewell. That's the Democrat in Alabama seventh district seat. It moved five points to the right, but it's still a Democrat plus 18 seats to see that Harris won by 18 points. The former party chairman of the Republican Party and he's a candidate for lieutenant governor. His name is John Wall. He's been aggressively pushing for a full seven map for all the Republicans to contain the seats. We'll have to see where it ends up landing. I think we're probably going to end up at a 6:1 map or they'll keep the Terry slow. We'll see. But I don't, I don't know if anyone has any political influence over K. Ivy at this point. She's retiring. She's a woman of particular age, allegedly. She likes the drink. So who knows, who knows if she's going to end up doing anything now the biggest twist in all of this that I did not see coming is Georgia Governor Brian Kemp made two big changes to their state's political system. First, he signed a new law to make all local elections in Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett counties nonpartisan. This is the Atlanta metro area. It's very Democratic. It's becoming more Democratic with every passing year. He made a nonpartisan I mean, it seems very obvious to give Republicans a chance at winning local government in the area because if it's an R +D those areas have become so Democratic there's really no chance for a Republican to pick seats. So if it's nonpartisan, they at least have a chance. That was a big shock to the, you know, local Georgia world. But he did something. He took another step. He announced he's going to do redistricting in 2012, before 2028 though. So redistricting will happen, but not in time for the midterm. Still, Kemp was saying no redistricting at all. So the fact that he's changed his mind about this is really kind of shocking. My guess is that they, I mean if they wanted to, they could really go after two Democratic seats in Georgia. Republicans control the governor's mansion and the state legislature. My guess is they're going to go for just one which is the south Georgia, Georgia's 2nd district, Sanford Bishops district. It's a big Democratic seat in South Georgia. They're probably distribute that to make that Republican. But they'll leave all the Atlanta Democratic seats because Atlanta is growing, the metropolitan area is becoming more Democrat and they want to shore up their base and want to make sure that no Republicans would be even be in a position where they'll lose the their elections in case of a blue wave or anything like that. They don't want to, they don't want to have a dummy mander. You know, that's the word they say when they gerrymandered a little too much. Georgia as of right now is not expected to gain another congressional seat in the 2030 census if they do. My guess, and this is just a guess, I don't have any information but my guess based upon how quickly the Georgia Atlanta metro areas changing, they'll probably make a swing to a Democratic district in the Atlanta area, another one to protect all the Republican seats throughout the entire rest of the state. That's if of course they can keep the Georgia's governor mansion, which is very touch and go. Democrats right now in the primary are voting like mad in Georgia, especially black Democrats. They are voting very, very, very heavily heavier than they usually vote. Much heavier than white voters are voting. So that's something to keep an ey. Speaking of elections, let's talk about the important races happening and some new polling data that is giving us insight into how this is all shaking up. In the Michigan Senate race, this is Republicans best opportunity to pick up a U.S. senate seat. The Detroit Chamber of Commerce Released a poll finding that Republican Mike Rogers is leading likely Democratic nominee El said as his last name by 5 points. Another poll by Mitchell pollster. It's a very Michigan based pollster. They do a decent job. They also found Mike Rogers up by only one point. So it's within the margin of error. But Rogers has some fight to him. Rogers is not. Rogers is not really going down without a fight. He's leading 42 to 41. Now on the governor's side, though, John James is losing in both those same polls. He's down five points against Jocelyn Benson, the Secretary of State, likely nominee for the Democrats for governor in, in the first poll and in the second poll in the Mitchell poll, he's down by 12 points. That's a, that's not good for Mike Rogers. Remember, this is for John James rather. This is, this is a unique situation in Michigan because the mayor of Detroit, who was a lifelong Democrat, became an independent and is running third party. He's running as an independent who is trying to be moderate and, and moderate his tone. And normally you would think that would be giving a lot of votes away from the Democrat, but so far it's really not helping the Republican either. All right, let's look at another state. New York Governor Kathy Hochul, who was an utter disaster of a governor and is playing this insane cat and mouse game with Zora Mandani, Pulling back his campaign promises, but at the same time leaning into certain promises giving socialism to New York. She is leading Nassau County Chairman Bruce Lakeman by 16 points according to a new Siena poll. Not terribly shocking given that it's New York, but hopefully Blakeman can make it a much closer election. New York does have multiple swing congressional districts. They did not gerrymander ahead of the midterms. It is very important that New York voters show up to make sure that Republicans keep the House. House majorities run through blue and purple states. They don't run just through red states. Over in New Hampshire, Republican Johnson unu, now he was a senator. His father was. This was, was the governor and I think he was the chief of staff to former President George H.W. bush and his brother, a very popular governor. The Sununus are like this political dynasty over in New Hampshire. It is odd how much they love this. It's not odd. But rarely do most states in New England have political dynasties like the Sununus. It's not super common in some states like the Huckabees are big in, are big in Arkansas. I can't even think that Bushes were kind of big in Texas. But it's not political dynasties that are local are not super common. As far as statewide elections go, Sununus are the difference. Now John Sunu is not a Trump Republican, but he's been endorsed by Trump. They want to clear the field. He is down just seven points against Democrat Chris Pappas according to the UNH poll. It's a, it's a relatively new UNH poll that makes it somewhat competitive. Now listen, a lot of money is going to go to North Carolina where the Republican is down big time. The Republican North Carolina is down by 11 points in New polling. It's it it. By the most recent pollsters data, New Hampshire is a closer reach for Republicans than North Carolina, which is a very uneven thing. Uneven sense of where things are. But the governor of North Carolina who is running as a Senate candidate now, the former governor is extremely popular, extremely popular and it's probably taking that state out despite the fact the state voted for Trump three straight times. Let's look more locally. In Los Angeles, a new Emerson poll came out. Finance Spencer Pratt is surging in the polls. Spencer Pratt is in second place. Now it is a jungle primary. The top two go on to November. Karen Bass, the incumbent mayor is standing at 30%. She's the, as I said, the incumbent. She's got all the union support. Reality show star Spencer Pratt is at 22% and the socialist city councilwoman is at 19%. Pratt is really coming together. He's earning a lot of celebrity support. Now I know that doesn't mean anything. Obviously Kamala Harris be president if celebrities what mattered in elections. But in LA it's a little different. And also for a Republican, it's a little different. It's a little different because Republicans so rarely get celebrity support. So the fact that Avril Lavigne, that's, that's very millennial coded. That's a, that's a celebrity. Millennials would know. And really everyone else is like who? But Avril Lavigne was out supporting him and so was Catherine McVie. She was from American Idol back when I was a young person. Her husband's very, very wealthy, so she threw a fundraiser for him. People with a lot of money are coming to the table saying let's get Spencer Pratt elected. So that's very interesting. He's in. You know, the thing is, kid, a Republican win L. A? Probably not. But here's the question. Do voters look at Spencer Pratt and say he's a Republican? I know that's what Karen Bass wants people to think. They want him to think of him as Trump. However, that doesn't mean that's what's going to happen. Right. Voters may think of him as his own entity like they thought of Trump as his own entity. You know, don't say things that are Trump says a lot of things that are very quote unquote left wing or moderate that an average Republican wouldn't say. But it doesn't matter because he's not an average Republican. Spencer Pratt is in the same form of not an average as an average Republican. They're talking a lot about firefighters and fires and police and all the rest of it and drug abuse. It's very interesting how voters are perceiving Spencer Pratt right now. And I think that could be Spencer Pratt's answer. If people view him as something different than just, you know, a run of the mill Republican, it may give him the inside chance to really shock people. Obviously everything's going towards Karen Bass as far as the institutional support, as far as Democrats and unions go, she is the incumbent mayor. However, we will see if that if Spencer Pratt could really have a lightning in a bottle and make something happen. California once again has a as a jungle primary and so far in the early vote, Republicans are showing up. The election is on June 2, the primary is on June 2 and it's a universal mail in ballot state. There is no reason not to vote and the primary is arguably for Republicans more important than the general. So far, 4% of all registered Republicans have voted. 219,000 of them have voted. Only 2% of Democrats and 2% of independents can say the same. Democrats in the actual vote returns only have about a 30,000 vote lead. Compare that to 2022 when there wasn't a competitive Democratic election. When there was for Senate, I guess. But no, I don't know if there was for Senate, there definitely wasn't for governor. Democrats had 150,000 vote lead at this point. So Republicans are showing up. Republicans are making this competitive. I don't care what the polls all model for, what the expected turnout is based upon, likely voters. If Republicans break that by having this exorbitantly high turnout rate, they break all the polling and who knows what could happen. Who knows if Steve Hilton or Chad Bianco or Spencer Pratt can really make numbers, big numbers themselves because Republicans are turning out and right now Republicans are showing up. That could all change. We have still over two weeks till election Day. There's a lot of time for Democrats to still show up, but right now Republicans are doing the work they need to continue that, though, they need to continue that momentum at a very, very high number. Maybe it's, I don't know why Democrats aren't voting because they're motivated. Maybe it's just that all the choices are so bad and maybe a lot of them are undecided. The choices on the Democratic side are truly awful. But listen, if Republicans show up, they may lock Democrats. We don't know. Anything could really happen as long as they show up. I always say signs don't vote, commercials don't vote. You know, mailers don't vote. People vote. So if you're a person in California and you care about that state, go vote. So we'll keep, I'll keep updated on what's California. I don't want to get hopes up too high. I don't want to say this is what's going to happen. We're going to win. I want to give you guys the facts as they're coming in and that's the facts. The facts are Republicans are showing up. So we'll see where that goes. Well, California may be the land of fruits and nuts, but New York is not that far away. We don't really have much, you know, we don't have, we have a different type of high anxiety, highly liberal, highly progressive voting bloc. And Mayor Zora Mandani, the mayor of New York City is claiming he has come up with this wizard socialist math that is going to balance the budget. I have to break down because it is crazy and Democrats are celebrating a lot of nonsense that's coming up next. Stay tuned.

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[Ryan Graduski]

with me on today's episode is Seth Barron from the New York Post. He is the author of the book Weaponize the Left's Capture and Destruction of America's Sacred Institutions. Seth, thank you for being here.

[Seth Barron]

Thanks for having me on, Ryan.

[Ryan Graduski]

We'll talk about the book in a minute, but let's start with Zoro Mandani, because he's claiming he's a magician and somehow he made the deficit disappear. Madani claims that he was facing a $12 billion deficit, which is kind of suspect. I don't know if I believe that number left over by Mayor Eric Adams. The largest gap since the Great Recession, and he claims he managed to close deficit while avoiding cuts to services. He has a $125 billion budget. There's plenty to cut from. How did he allegedly balance the budget?

[Seth Barron]

Well, he claims that he balanced the budget by eliminating a bunch of unnecessary things. And just through being a really smart guy, I guess. I mean, here's the thing. I've been following New York City politics for a long time and for 20 years, every time the mayor puts out a budget, it's accompanied by a press release saying, this is the most responsible budget. This is compassionate. This doesn't do this. It doesn't do it. And it's a very solid budget. So this happens every year, but this is the first year where people are pretending to believe it. There's all of this noise about, oh, my God, Mamdani saved the city. He eliminated a budget gap and just, like, saved us from fiscal crisis, and he didn't cut any essential services. This guy is a whiz. In reality, what happened was, yes, there was a budget, there was a hole, there was a deficit, but this was all foreseen. I mean, everybody knew about this. The thing is, Eric Adams would overspend and then not count that in the next budget. He wouldn't raise like the. He wouldn't say, oh, we need $3 billion, because last year we spent that much on cash assistance to poor people. He would just keep it at $2 billion. But then usually the city winds up with more revenue than it was expecting, so you can just cover it. What Mandani's calling a fiscal crisis, he says that it's worse than the fiscal crisis of the Great Recession. Now, at the time of the Great Recession, tax revenues fell. So, yeah, that was kind of a crisis. This time. It's not a tax revenues were going up. So it doesn't make sense to call it a fiscal crisis. It's just that he wanted to spend more money. So, I mean, that's not a fiscal crisis. That's just like a spending crisis. And then the way he solved it was he got the mayor to give him a bunch of money.

[Ryan Graduski]

Governor, the governor.

[Seth Barron]

The governor. He got Hochul to give him a bunch of money. And that. That closed it.

[Ryan Graduski]

But, yeah, she gave $4 billion. So it's taxpayers from upstate, from Long island, from all the rest of New York State that is helping spend what Mayor Mandani wants to spend. Is that an accurate assessment?

[Seth Barron]

Well, I mean, it is and it isn't. I mean, New York City provides the bulk of New York State revenue. I mean, that kind of makes sense. And he made a big argument that this isn't fair. We give so much money to the rest of the state, and we don't get that much in return.

[Ryan Graduski]

Okay.

[Seth Barron]

Okay. Well, that's kind of what progressive taxation is.

[Ryan Graduski]

I mean, that is what progressives. Yes, that is a very progressive. That's a great way of putting it, that. Yes. This is actually what progressives want. Rich people pay a lot and don't get as much back. And that's considered acceptable. Yeah.

[Seth Barron]

I mean, how much does lower Manhattan produce in terms of tax revenue compared to what it gets back?

[Ryan Graduski]

Right.

[Seth Barron]

Probably it's, you know, probably it doesn't get back as much as it gives. That's. That's the essence of.

[Ryan Graduski]

Or the Upper east side or the Upper West.

[Seth Barron]

The Upper east side, sure. I mean, that's the way it works. So what is he saying? Like, we need to impoverish Broome county, like Greene County, These. These upstate counties that have nothing.

[Ryan Graduski]

That are dairy counties. Yeah.

[Seth Barron]

Like, how dare. Herkimer county, like, suck. Suck on New York City. It's a parasite. I mean, it sounds like.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, it's a very elitist argument now that you're saying it. Bandani is making a very elite argument. That's really a funny and such a smart way of putting it. The. The other thing that he did. And can you explain this about pensions? What does do with pensions?

[Seth Barron]

Well, this is really funny. Okay, so New York City, you know, we have hundred hundreds of billions of dollars in the New York City pension funds. All of this is constitutionally has to be paid out. Like, it's mandated that we pay the pensions for people who worked for the city, teachers, cops, firemen, et cetera. And these pension funds are typically underfunded in terms of how actuaries figure out what it should be given future obligations. It's not horribly underfunded, but it's a little bit underfunded. So what Mamdani did. And so every year, the city has to cough up some money to put away for, you know, future pension payments. So Mamdani, you know, so every year it's a few billion dollars. So this year Mamdani said, oh, well, we're gonna restructure it. So essentially, he's just deferring payments. He's not putting the money in. And he said, like, we'll put it in later. So he's just kicking down this, like, obligation down the road till like, 2033 or something.

[Ryan Graduski]

And in the other states, other places have tried this. So I know Chicago and Puerto Rico are two very big examples. But what happened in the case of Chicago and Puerto Rico was, I think, in the case of Chicago, it cost taxpayers 40 billion more than it would have had they paid on time. And in the case of Puerto rico, it was 55 billion in unfunded liabilities.

[Seth Barron]

Yeah, I mean, if you do it routinely, then it becomes a disaster because it very quickly becomes practically insurmountable. So, yeah, Illinois, Chicago, they're in serious trouble with their pension obligations. New York, look, you can get away with it for a year or two, but you wouldn't want to make a habit of it. But I think Mamdani's attitude is like, well, whatever, someone will pay it. Like, he doesn't really care.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, and this goes into my. My theory about. Well, let me. Let me push back for a second. Let's talk about other things. He's also given up on some campaign pledges. So one of them is he wanted to reduce. This was a big. Give me to the teachers union. Teachers union. We did a whole episode on this. Teachers. Schools in New York City are losing population as people don't have as many children. So rather than consolidate schools or close failing schools, what they're doing is saying, well, we need smaller classroom sizes, and that way we hire more teachers. He's delaying instituting that because that's a big part of what the cost is coming from, too.

[Seth Barron]

He's delaying it. But then at the same time, he is planning to hire a thousand more

[Ryan Graduski]

teachers for students that don't exist.

[Seth Barron]

For students. Yeah, that don't exist. And I mean, enrollment is declining. The city put. Put out a few years ago. They. They like us. We will, like, no harm. Like, the schools will not be held. Like, there's not gonna be any school closures or consolidations. We cannot, like, basically, it was sold that this would be unfair. This would harm the teachers unions if we were to.

[Ryan Graduski]

And that's all they care about. Education. Education in this city is about how to. How adults benefit. Nothing about students whatsoever.

[Seth Barron]

Well, you know, let me just add something that. I talk about this in my book. We don't have to talk about the book right now, but Randi Weingarten, who's the head of the American Federation of Teachers and formerly the head of the New York City Teachers Union, she wrote a book last year, I don't know if you caught it, called why Fascists Fear Teachers.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yes, I saw that.

[Seth Barron]

Okay. And so I read it, and she has this one part where she says, teachers provide four valuable, fundamental things to America. One, they impart knowledge. They educate students. Two, they provide, like, a community. Three, they open up opportunity. Fine. And Then the fourth one is the one that's really telling. She says teachers anchor a labor movement that provides a model for all working people.

[Ryan Graduski]

So, yes, yes, it's all, it's. That's all it's about for some of these people. It's a hundred percent. And you know what's. So this was a very frustrating thing for me during the whole defund the police movement of the early 2000s. I kept on telling Republicans, you need to talk about policemen. As for a lot of working class people, especially working, less Latino people, these unions are not just about providing something. They are a ladder to the middle class. One that is the only ladder. The middle class. They are an economic function as much as they are everything else. And she gets that. And I give her credit for getting that, even though she's absolutely horrible and has done horrible things with education and she should, in a better society, be taken out of her job. Job. But it is true. Okay, wait, what? This is my big question for you. The New York City could easily cut spending. They could cut spending. I could. I could cut $12 billion. You give me a red pen, I will cut $12 billion. And no one in New York City will notice, except for the 20% of New York that runs under. 20% of New Yorkers work for a nonprofit, which is insane, that is basically funded by the city. So. And if you add nonprofit workers with city workers and state workers, it's a majority of people who live in New York City. It's the. It is obscene.

[Seth Barron]

I can't believe that.

[Ryan Graduski]

Side note. That's a side note. The main point is this. What are the chances that Mandani, if he runs for. If he's mayor for the full eight years, and Hochul and all the rest of them are waiting for a Democratic president to ask for a bailout? Because that is the only way they're going to get through the long hurdle of this, of the way they're making money, they're spending money. There's no way. Unless DC Comes in with a trillion dollars or whatever it is and bails out New York long term, what's the

[Seth Barron]

chances that they'll get the bailout?

[Ryan Graduski]

What's the chances that that's what their goal is? That they're.

[Seth Barron]

Oh, oh, well, that's always been their goal. Like, that's always the assumption that it doesn't matter if things get really bad, we'll just get a bailout. I mean, that's, I think, Chicago's method, you know, I mean, it happened before 50 years ago. I don't think it would be pretty. I don't think they would get like, you know, I don't think it would be no strings attached, but it could happen. You know, let me just. I just want to. Before we get away from the question of Mamdani's budget magic, I just want to point out that if you look at his documents, the budget documents, he claims that he's saving an additional one and a half billion dollars. And the way he says he's doing it is by like capturing inefficiencies. Like all this kind of just hand waving and saying, like, yes, we will streamline processes and capture inefficiencies. And, you know, just this kind of like stuff that, you know, you. You would say in like a corporate, like just corporate talk.

[Ryan Graduski]

Right. Well, and he's completely corporation, which is

[Seth Barron]

ironic, right, but completely vague. But they're acting like, like he's. He's done something miraculous, but he's just making stuff up. It's. It's really funny.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, okay, let me get to your book. Weaponize. Weaponize the Left's capture of destruction of America's Sacred Institutions. I have not read this book. What is it about?

[Seth Barron]

Basically, it's about how the left seeks to centralize control and how it has gone across a number of domains of American life. And I look at citizenship, the border, public education, policing, and housing. And I look at the ways in which, okay, for instance, with housing, zoning has typically been something that local communities handle for themselves. But this kind of conflicts with a major leftist project which is to build affordable housing everywhere and change the complexion, economic and racial, of suburbs and essentially densify already dense areas. You know, basically just like this kind of. They want to have master planners in charge of everything as opposed to, like, locals. So looking at the ways in which the left has sought to bring power away from localities and communities and raise it up to higher, less accountable authorities like the state or the federal, or even just, you know, in the hands of people like the teachers unions. Right, so that's basically what the book's about. You know, the idea that, you know, if I may. Like, there's this old saying, think globally, act locally. Like, everybody's heard that. It's about like, you know, the environment, for instance. But it occurred to me, well, what that means is think globally. Don't use your own senses to figure out the world. Don't apply your own capacity to reason out reality. We have people over here who've done the big picture thinking already. They have the global vision so just put that on your head and act accordingly. It's all worked out. So that's kind of generally what I look at. And I look at how this works out politically in all these different areas. So it's a fun book, I would say. All right.

[Ryan Graduski]

It's worth checking out. Okay. So Seth, where people go to see your social media and where could they go to get your book?

[Seth Barron]

Well, they can get the book on Amazon or actually in the city. It's in the Barnes and Noble, so I went there and you can go to BN.com or wherever you like to buy your books electronically. My X handle is Seth Baron nyc. You can find me there. I write for the New York Post, I write for City Journal, I write for Unherd. So you can find my stuff wherever. You know know I'm not hard to find, let's put it that way.

[Ryan Graduski]

Ryan well Seth, thanks for coming on this podcast. I appreciate you being here.

[Seth Barron]

It was great. Thanks so much Ryan.

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[Ryan Graduski]

the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want a part of the ask Me Anything segment, email me ryanumbersgame podcast.com that's ryan@plural numbersgame podcast.com all right, let's talk about a little gossip I heard. So there is a candidate running for Congress in Texas. He's not a congressman yet, so let's just put that caveat there. And allegedly he's got issues with his immigration status, issues with a drug issue, and issues with certain relationships. A man is coming forward saying that this congressional candidate, who's also a man, was soliciting him for intercourse and then saying during it that he needed drugs to kind of try to get involved and asked for a certain, like very, very, very strong type of drug. I haven't found out if this is true or not, but this is, this man's coming forward with a lot of information, very detailed information. The Texas runoffs are coming up quickly and he might not win, so it might go nowhere because he'll just be a congressional candidate with kind of no, no story. But it's, it's very juicy. And if this guy comes forward and is willing to actually be out in public and, and say this and I can, I can actually get legitimate findings that this is all real, I will absolutely give you the full, full breakdown. But it's a young man running in Congress and running for Congress in is in the runoffs. He's not currently a congressman. Maybe you can figure it out. I'm not exactly sure, but it is juicy. When I went, I reached out to our Texas staffer for Texas Congressman. I told him about this. He goes, I'm not surprised. So keep that, keep that one to, to under your cap if that comes out. I've given you guys scoops on gossip that has come true before, so maybe this be one of them. All right. On my last episode, I got a question about the independence moderates and undecideds. Back in 2020, there was a breakdown of who's a moderate, who's an undecided, and who's an independent. And it was done by FiveThirtyEight at the time, which was Nate. Nate Silver's website at the time. He had since sold it and then it's defunct. But his findings was that while 33% of the public was moderate, only 22% were. Were moderate without being independent or undecided. Right. 11% were undecided, but only 4% were just truly undecided. And they were not. They were not independent or moderate. What I'm trying to say is because I'm going to throw out a lot of numbers if I keep doing this, but of the independents who were truly just independent, it was 5% of the public. And of those who are undecided, it's only 4% of the public. It is a very, very, very, very minuscule population. Most moderates who are moderates are not undecided. They're. They, they. They know who they're voting for and who they are supporting every, almost every single time. Of the people who are truly undecided and Moderate, it's just 2.4% of those who are ind. Independent and undecided, it's 2%. Very, very small numbers. You're saying, how could this population exist? Because there's 2% of the public that you can get to believe that Anna Nicole Smith is still alive, you know, or like jonbene Ramsey and Katy Perry are the same person. That's like a real Internet conspiracy theory that I don't believe in, but it's out there nonetheless. There's always a room for somebody who's kind of, you know, on the periphery, doesn't have strong opinions about stuff. Those are the numbers I said I wanted to get to last time. Okay, first email comes from Veronica. She says to me first, I'm a huge fan. I was very excited when you got your own podcast. I'm a total numbers geek. Thank you Veronica. So am I. I've listened today to your discussion regarding to Medicare fraud situation in Ohio. While it certainly sounds like there's also there was abuse in the system, I wanted to share some perspective on why programs like this may have originally existed and how they can serve families with significant caregiving needs. I'm a mom of an adult son with profound disabilities who requires full time care. He's non mobile, non verbal, requires feeding assistance, diapering medications and seizure monitoring, monitoring. My husband and I both work full time so caregiving support is incredibly important for our families like ours. When my son turned 18 he qualified for Medicare which has truly been a blessing given the cost of healthcare and medication as part of the system. They are respiteful care programs intended to help families hire caregivers during times when their loved one is out of out of school and when the caregiver simply needs support. In our case we've actually never received services because the available spots in our state are so limited. We were also told that some states allow certain family members to provide respite care. I think I'm pronouncing that part correctly. Honestly, if I trusted a family member who was physically able to care for my son and could step in when needed, that support would be invaluable. Caring for him is often requiring lifting and significant hands on care. So it's not something anyone can do. It made me wonder whether programs like this as discussed in Ohio, may have started with good intentions for families in situations like ours, even though they clearly became vulnerable to abuse without proper oversight. I genuinely be interested in your thoughts on how programs like this possible alternatives or ways states could better balance accountability with support for families caring for loved ones with severe disabilities. Thank you Veronica. This is such a. Such a touching email. First of all, my heart goes out to you. It. It's tough. My grandparents both got dementia the same exact year and I had to take care of them at the same time and another relative of mine was temporarily ill and I had to help out with them while working and it was. I was working from home and it was a. And I was actually helping my cousin who had a toddler. So I was dealing with a lot. It was a lot, a lot. It was. A lot of. It was a. It was a hard time and I did it all without any payments from the state and any payments from a city and I just did it because that's what family is supposed to do. And I. It was. It was a privilege to Give my grandparents dignity as they were heading into, you know, their eternal rest, which my grandfather did. My grandmother's still with us, but severely, severely ill because of Alzheimer's. Yeah. All things are paved with good intentions. Here's the problem. When the. You have no. When you're not able to do accountability checks in homes, how do you do that? Right. If you can only get family members to do it, how do you actually check if they have any proper training, if they're capable of. Of. Of helping your son? As you said, if it's somebody who just needs a check, let's say you had another child who was just a deadbeat and wanted to smoke pot all day. You couldn't necessarily say, this is who's helping us and not. I'm not saying you would do that. I'm saying that someone could do that. And I think that all programs like this could have great intentions. However, when everything is done within families and within families and cultures where abuse from government is rampant, you are leading yourself up to everyone distrusting the system as a whole. And when everyone completely distrusts the system, then you end up in a situation where they want to defund it or they all want to abuse it. So I understand, and I completely understand. I wish your family had. There was people who could help more. And I. You are in a very tough situation. And really, really, I, I can sympathize as I was in a very tough situation. Not the same, but tough situation. I, I understand where. Why this would be beneficial for you guys. However, I just think that you need to hire nurses from outside the family, people who have qualified degrees, people you have timestamps of when they show up, when they leave. That way, abuse is more limited. Okay, last question from the show. This comes from Patrick. He said, I understand everyone's excited right now about redistricting in 2030 and especially for a full bulletproof Republican majority, but I'm a little worried. Unlike the gop, Democrats are more clever and aren't afraid to use power. They're looking to do things that Spamberger once did, like stack the cord, implement amnesty, open borders, gems. Basically have one shot in 2028 and all it would take is an amnesty. And Republicans is basically. Republicans are basically cooked. I understand I'm on the online right and I'm immune to joy and happiness, but are my concerns valid? Your concerns are valid, yeah. It is essential that Republicans keep at least one branch of government going into 2028 to stop it. The good thing is this, though. This is why you shouldn't despair. Republicans are likely to maybe lose one to two Senate seats this year. Maybe they can gain one in Michigan to keep it as a Net loss of 1. The 2028 Senate map is good as long as we are not in a recession. Republicans opportunities. They have opportunities in Pennsylvania, they have opportunities in Arizona, they've opportunities in Nevada. There's a lot of ample opportunities for Republicans to pick up more senate seats in 2028 and keep keep the Senate. Also with redistricting, I mean there's a chance for them to hold the House, you know, in 2028 or win the house back in 2028. We there's a lot we don't know. The Senate is obviously the best chance given that there is ample pickup opportunity from all things that were lost in the 2022 election. They were like, wow, this election didn't turn out well. All of that is available in the 2028 Senate races. So Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, there's a lot of chances for Republicans to pick up Senate seats. I would not despair. Georgia, I think is up as. No, Georgia's up this year. Maybe Georgia's up again. Georgia should be up again. So there. Yeah, Georgia will be up again. So there's a lot of opportunity. Do not despair. It's way too early to despair. You shouldn't get your mind in that mindset yourself in that mindset. But Kamala Harris is set up it. She wants full left wing tyranny. That's the plan of the Democratic Party. They are as radical as they ever were. Just gotta keep hope, keep the faith and fight for election wins and that's that. Anyway, thank you so much for listening this podcast. I really appreciate you all. If you like this show, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast wherever you get your podcast and on YouTube. I will talk to you guys on Monday. Have a great weekend dealing with fatigue,

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