← The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
It's a Numbers Game: NEW Polls Reveal Democrats' Biggest 2028 Problem
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Podcast Host (Ad Read)
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Your social media feed delivers plenty of advice, but it doesn't know you. It doesn't ask questions. It doesn't give physical exams or order tests doctors do. At the American Medical association, we believe the best care starts with a real conversation with someone who understands the science and your unique health. So stay curious, ask questions. But when it's time to make decisions, make them with a doctor. Learn more at amahealth versus hype.org that's amahealthvshipe.org A burst pipe? A dead water heater, the AC calling it quits?
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Who do you call?
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HomeServe is an easy way to handle unexpected home repairs with plans covering stuff basic homeowners insurance usually won't Instead of scrambling for a contractor, you make one call to get the repair process started. Join the millions of customers who trust HomeServe right now. Go to HomeServe.com podcast for 50% less your first year. That's HomeServe.com podcast savings compared to renewal
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Price void in Florida have you ever
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found yourself craving a cold snack?
- [01:08]
Yep.
- [01:08]
Montucky makes my favorite cold snack. It's a cold, snackable beer.
- [01:13]
Ryan Grusky
Montucky is a light American lager from Bozeman, Montana.
- [01:18]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
Go to montuckycold snacks.com snack-finder to find Montucky cold snacks and a retailer near you. And if you're looking for some Montucky merch, use important snacks all one word for 20% off their merch store.
- [01:34]
You know what quality feels like. You can see it in the way a fabric moves, recognize it in a flawless fit, and appreciate it in the details that make our styles unique. It's the standard Coldwater Creek has honored for over 40 years, derived from a rich Mountain west heritage and designed for today in styles that are distinctively Coldwater Creek. For a wardrobe you can count on season after season, visit coldwatercreek.com, shop new arrivals and save 15% on purchases $70 or more with code iHeart.
- [02:05]
Ryan Grusky
Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Grusky. Thank you guys for being here. Happy Friday, everybody. We made it through another week. I have to tell you, I rarely listen to conservative podcasts or talk radio because I try to keep my opinions fresh and interesting. And if you listen to a lot of podcasts out there, which maybe some of you do, eventually those narratives kind of get into your head and you start repeating your opinion. And it's only natural. But I don't want to do that. Because I want to. My Fresh take for you guys. So I've been really interested in the Charlie Kirk murder trial and I've been watching a few YouTube shows and clicking on a few podcasts to talk about, you know, the status of the trial and how it's going and the evidence. And I clicked on this one guy the other day and he sounded informed and had a good speaking voice and did a good job. But then I watched a few of his other episodes and every episode was a reaction episode to Ben Shapiro said this, and then Candace Owen said this, and then Tucker Carlson said this and Megan Kelly said this and Michael Knowles said that. And I was like, oh my God, is this every podcast? It's all reaction. There's no content. It's all just, you know, what everyone else is saying about each other. I had to turn it off. I was like, this is, this is too much. Like, this is. You know, I try. It made me want to double down and make sure that this podcast is not like that. I try really hard to make sure you guys get fresh information and content to give you guys more information and keep you more informed and not do high school. I mean, I, I loved high school, but I am over it at this point in my life. So. Okay, here is some data for you guys. Because it's a Friday in the summer. I want to go over a few data points I think are really interesting, but then go over some funny news. I think it's just hilarious and we'll keep it light and easy for a Friday in the summer. First, let's talk. Well, two things. Let's talk about money and polls. Financial information, when it comes to campaigns and politics informs us a lot over the status of where campaigns are going, how politics are doing, and who's investing in what. So let's start with a fresh poll in the great state of Pennsylvania where governor and likely presidential candidate Josh Shapiro looks like he is surging to a reelection. A Quinnipiac poll found that Shapiro leads his Republican Challenger, Stacey Garrity, 53 to 40%. That's actually quite a bad poll for Shapiro considering the last few polls have had him closer to 20 points. For those who don't know, by the way, because Garrity is not a well known name, Stacy Garrity is the treasurer of the state of Pennsylvania. She won a shocking victory in 2020. She was a complete unknown. She defeated an incumbent, had a really amazing victory in 2020, and then she won in 2024 by six points. So she's not a nobody. Like, she's not A terrible candidate. Like, they didn't, they didn't pick her out of a hat. She has a real legitimate election history of winning in Pennsylvania. So I want the, I think that's important because we're like, why can't you find a better candidate against Shapiro? They found a good candidate. Stacey Garrity is not a bad candidate. Nonetheless, polls in Pennsylvania have showed actually that it's tightened a little bit. The Quinnipiac poll specifically. Shapiro's lead has shrunk from 18 points in February to 13 points today with he's leading among Democrats 96 to 1. That's not a shocker. He's leaning on independents 58 to 29 and he's losing Republicans 87 to 10. Now Shapiro has a big lead, but it's trending in the wrong direction for him. He is counting on a 20 plus point victory in Pennsylvania this November. If he doesn't get it, it will definitely make his argument for a national campaign a little tougher. He wants to get into November, win by 20 points and say, look, I can deliver. I can win the most important swing state in the country, which is now Pennsylvania. I'm a popular governor. And despite him being a popular governor, this is what people outside Pennsylvania really don't know. Despite being a popular governor, he has not delivered on most of his agenda. Why? Because the Republicans control the state Senate and Democrats, while they control the state House, have just a one seat majority. So there's not a lot of room for error even in the state House. He's had to work across the aisle, which maybe makes him more popular, but it doesn't give him any kind of progressive bona feeds to run on in November. He needs this gigant gigantic victory to flip the state Senate, gain seats in the state House. And what he wants to really do is focus on the four congressional seats that Republicans hold in Pennsylvania. In swing districts. He'll be targeting Brian Fitzpatrick in District 1, Ryan McKenzie in District 7, Rob Brushahan in District 8 and Scott Perry in District 10. If he helps deliver those seats to Democrats, he gets to not only say, I can win in an important, the most important swing state, but I have added seats to the democr Democratic majority in the House to put a check on Trump. Look how effective I am. So good bit of new. He's, you know, he's a good bit ahead in the reelection, not trending in the direction that he wants, but he's looking at an overall landslide the over. The other information in this poll that was fascinating was over John Fetterman Now, I've talked about this in the past. Fetterman has a, in this poll, Federman has a 48% favorable rating, a 41% disfavorable rating. That's pretty good for actually a senator. Like being up seven points in a senator in this environment. Very good. Susan Collins would love those polls right this point. It's actually terrible for Fetterman because here's why. Fetterman has an approval rating among Republicans in Pennsylvania, 77 to 12. This is wild. Fetterman is a pro choice, pro Obamacare guy who only votes with Trump 20% of the time, and yet Republicans love him. Among Democrats, his approval rating is 19%. He has a 69% disapproval rating. He's in Kristen cinema territory. He is in not Joe Manchin. He was. Joe Manchin was popular in West Virginia, but he's in Kristen cemetery territory. Like, he cannot win a primary with those kind of numbers. Like it's not, it's not even close. And it just goes to show how much vibes decide people's decision over how much they like a politician. Like, because he likes Israel and defends Israel and talks to people on Fox News and call Graham Platner a scumbag, which, like Fair Grand Planner is a scumbag. I, I mean, there's no love left for him among the Democratic party in Pennsylvania. 52% of Democrats in Pennsylvania want John Fetterman to leave the Democratic Party. That is wild. If John Fetterman were to leave the Democratic Party, even to become just an independent who caucuses wherever Chuck Schumer cannot become a majority leader, like, it makes no sense on a calculation basis why they hate John Fetterman the way that they do. Republican Dave McCormick is on solid ground. He's got a 40% approval, 33% disapproval. It's great for a freshman senator. Democrats lead in the generic ballot in the Keystone State by six points, 49 to 43. That puts a lot of Republicans in jeopardy. And it also shows how popular Shapiro is compared to the overall generic ballot. Remember, Shapiro leads by 13. Generic ballot is 6. So Shapiro's popularity lifts me 7 points in Pennsylvania. It all stems from President Trump, whose approval ratings are pretty dismal. 39% approved, 58% disapprove. Independents disapproved by a 2 to 1 margin. Now, despite Democrats having an advantage in this election, when asked about the state of the Republican and Democratic Party, they had a very different answer. 43. A plurality of voters say the GOP hasn't moved too far or Too far left or too far right. They're basically in a nice spot right that they are where they have always been. 7% said they move too far left. 42% said they move far right. But it's, it's pretty, that's okay. 43 is a good solid number for the Republicans. When asked about Democrats, 49% of voters of the Democratic Party has moved too far left, including 14% of Democrats and nearly 50% of independents. This is the type of branding problem that Democrats are going to deal with with long term trouble, especially if a far left candidate is nominated for president in 2028. It means that, that voters, the average voter thinks that the party's out of step with them. Now a lot of things could work in Democrats favor like a bad economy or the war drags on or high gas prices or whatever. But overall voters in Pennsylvania, the most important swings that I need to emphasize feel like the Democratic Party is not representative of them. That's not good long term. 52% of voters in the state believe the economy is getting worse. 44 think they are from worse finance off, worse off financially than they were a year ago. Oh, that's all the negative Trump numbers come down to really is just the economy. Last point on the poll was how voters are feeling on AI, 22% have a favorable opinion on AI, 47% have an unfavorable opinion of AI. Asked about supporting data centers, only 16% said they would like a data center built in their neighborhood. 74% percent oppose a data center being built in their area. Josh Shapiro has championed data centers through most of his first term. He's only flip flopped recently. And when asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro has done with data centers, 24% said he's done a good job, 34% said he's done a bad job. Independents are negative on Shapiro with data centers by 14 points. Stacy Garrity and her team would be very wise to be hitting on Josh Shapiro with data centers right now. No matter how she's feels about it, they are unpopular and he is unpopular for supporting them. Or rather it's the issue he's most unpopular on. Now let's talk finances because it means a lot to where money moves a lot in politics. It's, it's not that money wins elections. Sometimes it does. It's that money is a indicator of confidence in candidates of where people interests are moving. So let's first look at two big challengers. This is a race I'm going to focus on in the next segment In Michigan, Abdul El said he is the progressive socialist candidate. And Haley Stevens, she's more of the establishment candidate. Are in a tight race. Haley Stevens though is having more money cash on hand than Abdul Al said 3.4 million to 2.5 million. That's a big spread going into the very end of this election. And Michigan, by the way, now that Platner is out, is the focus of the Democratic socialists. Let's look at cash on hand for incumbents because this is going to say a lot about what people are looking in the future. Senator John Ossip of Georgia has $42.6 million cash on hand. His challenger Mike Collins is 2.2 million. Jon Ossip is the sleeper candidate a lot of people are looking to in 2028 to run for president. AOC, super safe Democratic seat. Everyone's looking at her future. $15.9 million. Lots of money that she will not be spending on her own. Reelect Mark Kelly. He's not even on the ballot this year. He's got 25 million. Another dark horse is looking at a presidential run possibly on the Republican side. Congressman Brandon Gill, he's a freshman. He's a friend of mine. He has. He raised 1.1 million in, in one quarter. That's a lot for a freshman. He's a, he's a rising star. Like he's a superstar. On the negative side, Congressman Corey Mills, the embattled congressman. I've talked about him. He's somebody who probably should not be in Congress. My opinion, he should not be in Congress. I think he's got a lot of skeletons in his closet. He raised $59,000. He has $2 million in debt and has 81,000 cash on hand. Horrible. He could be beaten this time. Russell Fry, who's looking at running possibly for Lindsey Graham seat, is starting off with a million dollars cash on hand. That's a nice launching pad if you want to run for the U.S. senate. Susan Collins, who has absolutely no opponent at this point, she's raised 4 million in a month. She's 11 million cash on hand. It's a good place for Susan Collins to be right now. Roy Cooper, he is the former governor of North Carolina running for the U. S. Senate. He has $20.7 million. His Republican opponent, who's actually decent at fundraising, Michael Watley, 3.5 million cash on hand. It is Georgia and North Carolina. The Democrats are bringing in the big guns financially speaking. Greg Abbott, the governor of Texas raised 28 million. He has 67 million cash on hand. Abbott is running for his fourth term. This man, I think personally, personally speaking, I have no evidence to back this. I think he's always wanted to run for president and just never had the opportunity. But he's raising buckets of money. Josh Shapiro raised 12 million, totaling 50 million, fundraised for the year. Once again, looking at 2028, it's a lot of money. Mary Patola, she's running in Alaska, she raised 7 million, but interestingly enough, she spent almost all of it. She's got a huge burn rate, which makes me think too many staffers, too big. That is a big red warning sign that she's burning money as fast as she is. And lastly, on the candidate side, Sherrod Brown, former Senator of Ohio, running to run again to be senator, Democratic senator. Raised 12 million, spent 13 million. Once again, huge monster burn rate this early in the election. He has 16 million cash on hand. I want to go over how some billionaires have been throwing money around. So Reid Hoffman, he is a tech bro, multi billionaire, probably the most liberal tech bro around. He gave $10 million to James Talarico's super PAC to flip the Senate seat in Texas. A lot of money. A lot of money. Now, Texas is very expensive. Remember there's 20 plus media markets to campaign in. So 10 million doesn't go as far as you would think if it was like, I don't know, New Hampshire or, or Iowa. But that's a lot of money even in there. Elon Musk gave 500,000 to Greg Abbott and 5 million to Vivek Ramaswamy. He's running for governor of Ohio. George Soros gave 3.5 million to the group Working Families Party of New York. That's the group that helped elect all the DSA members. There is a clear connection between George Soros and the rise of the dsa. He is funding a big part of the Working Family Party in New York. Dick Uline, he is a Republican super donor, I think. I think he made his money in cardboard boxes. I'm not sure. If someone told me you could become a billionaire from the cardboard box industry, I would have made different choices in life earlier on. But he gave 18 million to various Republican super PACs. Ken Griffin, the billionaire from Illinois, gave 2.5 million to Ashley Moody and Dan Sullivan, 3 million to the RGA and 10 million to the Senate Leadership Fund for the Republicans. Lot of money dispersed across the, across the field. Ken Griffin is absolutely buckling down for the GOP right now. Michael Bloomberg gave $11 million to Micah Lassner. He won a special primary in New York for one congressional district. Michael Bloomberg for one House seat in a primary, gave more money than King. Then, then, then, then James Talarico got from Reid Hoffman. Crazy money. Crazy money. But I guess if you're worth, you know, 30 billion, 11 million means nothing to you. And Roku CEO. The Roku CEO gave 500,000 to Ken Paxton super PAC. If you look overall at super PACs, there is a lot of special interest. Also in the mix, Win for America, which is the sports betting industry. Super PAC raised $72 million to help legalize sports gambling across the country. The Pro AI Super PAC Leading the Future gave 227,000 to incumbent Greg Stanton in Arizona. He's a Democrat. And 600,000 to Republican Jay Feely. The Republican Senate leadership PAC raised almost a quarter of a billion dollars. Excuse me, they have almost a quarter of a billion dollars cash on hand. The Democrat version of that has only half of The Republican number. 126 million. That's a huge difference. Republicans are counting on these super PACs to make up the difference in these races like North Carolina and Georgia, where the Republican candidate is outraised 10 to 1, because no one has as much money as these super PACs. And last but not least, Ken Paxton's new super pack starts off the quarter after this crazy primary, John coran, which is $35,000, that is, I'm sure Ken Paxton can have fundraise the money. And I think Paxton's Paxton slated to come on the podcast next week, so we'll talk to him about it. But fundraising is a big part of it. Paxton's been definitely behind Talarico, but I'm sure the super PAC will pick up steam as this election goes on because it's Texas. It's a big one. Okay, that's the money side. That's the polls. I know I throw a lot at you guys for a Friday. I understand it's. It's quite intense. Let's do something fun. A couple politicians have gone viral for what they put out on the. On the Internet. Let's just talk about it. It's hysterical. That's coming up next.
- [20:13]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
Have you ever found yourself craving a cold snack?
- [20:16]
Yep.
- [20:16]
Montucky makes my favorite cold snack. It's a cold, snackable beer.
- [20:22]
Ryan Grusky
Montucky is a light American lager from Bozeman, Montana.
- [20:27]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
Go to montuckycoldsnacks.com snack finder to find Montucky cold snacks and a retailer near you. And if you're looking for some Montucky merch, Use important snacks all one word for 20% off their merch store.
- [20:42]
You know what quality feels like. You can see it in the way a fabric moves, recognize it in a flawless fit, and appreciate it in the details that make our styles unique. It's the standard Coldwater Creek has honored for over 40 years, derived from a rich Mountain west heritage and designed for today in styles that are distinctively Coldwater Creek. For a wardrobe you can count on season after season, visit coldwatercreek.com, shop new arrivals and save 15% on purchases $75 or more with code iHeart Bite into
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burst pipe, A dead water heater, the AC calling it quits. Who do you call? Home Serve is an easy way to hand handle unexpected home repairs with plans covering stuff basic homeowners insurance usually won't. Instead of scrambling for a contractor, you make one call to get the repair process started. Join the millions of customers who trust HomeServe right now. Go to HomeServe.com podcast for 50% less your first year. That's HomeServe.com podcast savings compared to renewal Price void in Florida okay, so this
- [22:44]
Ryan Grusky
is a fun segment for the end of the week. If you are listening to this segment on Apple Podcasts or on the iHeartRadio app, I beg of you to go on YouTube and watch this segment because you're gonna want to see what I'm talking about. The Democratic socialists are really invested in the race for Michigan, now that Graham Platner has gone in Maine, like, I mean, they're. This Abdul El Said is the whole show for them. They want him to win so badly. He is taking a very interesting tactic as far as campaigning go that I've never seen before. He's making videos where he looks like Steve from the television show Blues Clues from when I was a child. There's the mail.
- [23:26]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
It never fails.
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Ryan Grusky
It makes me want to wag my tail when it comes. I wanna.
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Ryan Grusky (Guest or Co-host)
Well,
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Ryan Grusky
I am so embarrassed. I am. I am. You could not convince me to do that even in my drunkest state of mind when I was in, like, my early 20s. It is so strange. But fear not, because centrist Democrats are ready to take on him. They have a strong female candidate, you know, coming strong. Her name is Haley Stevens. She went viral this week for talking about how she's gonna fight for the every man in Michigan play.
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Politician or Speaker Clip
Clip 2 I am gonna be working on our behalf. I am gonna be telling the stories on our behalf. And you better believe I'm going to be doing it with a little bit of joy, a little bit of enthusiasm, a little bit of energy and a little bit of stick it to them, because that's the Michigan way.
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Ryan Grusky
If you haven't seen the clip of Congresswoman Stevens, she does this strange hand shoulder motion the entire time. She looks like she would have been a minor character in A League of Their Own, like for a rival team trying to energize before the playoffs. It is, it's. It's. I've watched it so many times, I can't even tell you because it's so strange. Every Democrat in this election is either a race communist or a failed theater kid. It is. It is. The performance is outstanding. Like, she looks like she's going to do community theater pretty soon and, like, going to do, like, a rendition of Oklahoma. I. I love it, but it's crazy. By the way, if you are wondering, that is not her actual voice. That is a fake Michigan accent that she's putting on. Some consultant told her, hey, you need to overdo your Michigan accent. If you want to know what she actually sounds like, here's a video of her on the House floor where it can only be described. Described as she's having a nervous breakdown about RFK Jr. And saying he should be impeached.
- [25:29]
Politician or Speaker Clip
Sharing in the profession with those who have not come before you. Similar times of trying medical need, wars and flus pass. You will see darkness. You will be pushed and our society needs you to Stand together at this time. Our country loves you. To our doctors and our nurses. I wear these laces.
- [25:48]
Ryan Grusky
The gentle lady's time has expired. The gentleman from Maryland is reserves. The gentleman from Texas is recognized. The gentleman from Texas is now recognized.
- [25:58]
Politician or Speaker Clip
Recognize.
- [25:59]
Ryan Grusky
You can, you can. I mean, like, yeah, she's got props. She's doing a whole bit. She's, she's a theater kid. Like, that's who she is. She's a theater kid. Like, she would have loved to play the Barbara Streisand role in Funny Girl. Like, that's who this woman is. I'm kind of here for it. It's a lot, but I'm kind of here for it. But theater kids and politics and accents is really nothing new. And we've seen it a lot before here. There's, by the way, there is no act. There's no accent that politicians, especially Democrats, love to fake more than the black scent, like a black accent. They love it. Here is Josh Shapiro. Play the clip. You could not have a clear contrast in this race.
- [26:46]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
You could not have a clear contrast between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
- [26:52]
Ryan Grusky
Now let me tell you something.
- [26:53]
Ryan Grusky (Guest or Co-host)
He's pretty afraid. Y' all see, he's backing out of the debate now. He's afraid to stand toe to toe with our vice president because he can't
- [27:03]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
run away from his record any longer.
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Ryan Grusky
I have met many, many Jews in my life. None of them sound like Barack Obama. None of them. Josh Shapiro is the only Jew who sounds like Barack Obama. He is faking a, an accent. There's another guy. He's running for Congress. His name is Justin Pearson. He's a state representative over in Tennessee. To his credit, unlike Josh Shapiro, he is actually black. But he all of a sudden, somewhere in his early to mid-20s, just started speaking like Martin Luther King Jr. For no reason. The first clip of him is him in college and then the second clip is of him now as an elected official. It is pretty, just mouth dropping. Play the clip.
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Politician or Speaker Clip
Dustin J. Pearson, and I'm running for president of psg. There are a few reasons that we're running this campaign this year. One has to do with representation. How can we represent all voices in a conversation? I want to do this by partnering with organizations from the Bowdoin Democrats to the Bowdoin Republicans. I want to bring together different voices, dissenting voices, voices that may be more liberal or more conservative, in order that we can reach a point of sort
- [28:19]
Ryan Grusky
of the radical middle here.
- [28:21]
Ryan Grusky (Guest or Co-host)
You've had three strike laws, mass incarceration denied us of who we are. And we are still here. And today you'll take the only majority black district from us. But I want you to know, and I want my nephew, sons, and the future to know, no matter what you do, no matter how much you try and break us and make us bid and make us quit, we will still.
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Ryan Grusky
I mean, I love it. It's so fake. It's so performative. He doesn't speak like that. But listen, hey, I give. I give them a little credit. If you had to fake somebody faking, the voice of Barack Obama or Martin Luther King is not that bad. It's someone to at least aspire to. Kind of sound like they were great auditors. Jasmine Crockett, the congressman from Texas who ramps unsuccessfully for the U.S. senate. She used to sound like a college educated suburban woman. And somewhere in her early 40s, she decided to start sounding like Cardi B. Play that club.
- [29:29]
Politician or Speaker Clip
First of all, it's good to see you in the new year. You know, no one could have told me that when I went down to Austin. Now looks like a little bit over a year ago that I would be running for Congress maybe. Because these people, they are crazy because they always talk about how Christian they is. Yeah. I don't know how many of them on that side are getting divorced because they getting caught up sleeping with their co workers, staffers, interns, all the things. Yeah, you ain't got to believe me. Just go Google. You'll find some of it. I'm telling you. And the wives is being messy and petty. They putting it in.
- [30:02]
Ryan Grusky
I mean, what do you do to prepare for that accent? I mean, how many episodes of Real Housewives of Atlant do you think that she watched in order to try to sound like Nene Leaks? Like that is what the preparation and the work was like for her to master. Not sounding like an educated woman, but by the way, she is. She has multiple degrees. She's from a very well off family. She does not sound like that. It is wild. But the overall queens of the fake black accent are none other than Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris. This is the last clip of this.
- [30:38]
Politician or Speaker Clip
I don't feel no ways tired I come too far from where I started from Nobody told me that the road would be easy I don't believe he brought me this far to leave me and you all helped us win in 2020 and we're going to do it again in 2020. 24.
- [31:03]
Ryan Grusky
Yeah. Kamala Harris was raised in Canada and Hillary Clinton is from Illinois. Now, Hillary Clinton, to her credit, in that clip is quoting somebody else. However, you can watch many videos of Hillary Clinton over the years where her accent changes wildly depending on who she's in front of and what she's talking about. I love it. I love when politicians do this. Politicians going viral for overdoing it over or faking who they are is one of my favorite things. Haley Stevens over in Michigan going viral has been giving me life for three days now. Sometimes when people go viral, it's for good times. Most of the time when politicians do this, it backfires. If you're of a certain age like me, you remember Howard Dean screaming in 2004 or Mitt Romney saying 47% in 2012. Haley Stevens. Maybe things will be more popular because of how over over the top she is, how over embellished she is, and it's quite funny. Maybe Michigan voters will like it. I love it, but I can't vote in Michigan. But before I leave this segment, I want to do a flashback to one of my favorite politicians you've never heard of that went viral. Locally viral. They weren't faking an accent. These were two guys who were being themselves completely. And every once in a while, every few months, I watch them because it is one of the best things that's ever been recorded in American politics. Back in 2014, in the Idaho governor's race, incumbent Butch Otter and was competing against now Congressman Russ Fulcher. Well, the governor, in a move of sheer political genius, decided to invite the two other guys on the ballot who were quote, unquote, normal guys. They weren't politicians. Their names were Harley Brown, he is a biker. Walt Baez, he was a Christian homeschooler who was arrested for homeschooling his children. And he was a perennial candidate. He ran like every couple years to talk about abortion. No one remembers what Russ Vulture or Butch Otter said in the during the debate because these two stole the show. The whole video is on YouTube. You could watch it. Here is just a segment. So this is of Walter Baez, the Christian homeschooler. These are just some things that he said during the debate that were amazing.
- [33:25]
Politician or Speaker Clip
I told them what I thought of them and the television would talk to me for 30 minutes or an hour and, well, what would you do if they came out to take your kids? Well, I'd shoot them. What else would you do? I can stand up where these guys are falling down. I don't know how to put it, but how many of them have been in jail for what they believe? How many of them come out of jail and said, you haven't changed a thing. What I am going to do is to do the right thing.
- [33:55]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
Okay?
- [33:56]
Ryan Grusky
It's time to move on.
- [33:56]
Politician or Speaker Clip
Wormwood is mentioned in the Bible a whole lot for your study in these last days and its radiation. They gave those people that worked there something called potassium iodide. And it plugs up your thyroid gland to where it won't take this radiation in. And those people didn't get it. They didn't have the effects. And what I'm telling you, the bottle's good for 20 years. And I'd rather have it 20 years early than five minutes late. When that little deal happened in Japan, just like that, you couldn't buy it. You couldn't find any anywhere.
- [34:32]
Ryan Grusky
This was a debate about being governor of Idaho. I just want to remind everyone about this. The second guy is Harley Brown, the biker. He was actually way more entertaining even than Walt Bayes, who I couldn't follow what he was saying. Sometimes go to some highlights of Harley
- [34:49]
Politician or Speaker Clip
Brown cried out to God. I said, God, how about putting me back on active duty and making me a battalion commander? Long story short, he says, no, son, I got a higher rank for you. I'm gonna make you the commander in chief. And I stagger not at his promise. I'll get into that more with you. Don't think I'm crazy, because I'm not. I don't like political correctness. Can I say this? It sucks. It's bondage. And I'm not. I'm about as politically correct as your proverbial turd in a punch bowl. And I'm proud of it. And I'm going for it. And I'm going for the vote of the real people out there. Not these bondage type people who don't have a clue about picking up strangers at night and hauling them God knows where. Try that for a while.
- [35:34]
All right.
- [35:35]
All right. You go in there and you use spirit spiritual warfare. Everybody talks about the natural, but I'm going to talk about the other realm. We exist in. You bind those evil spirits that are behind the feds with the blood of Jesus, the name of Jesus, the power of endowment of the Holy Spirit, the power of agreement, the word of God. Take air superiority and then roll in with your tanks on the ground like trubas. Lawsuits. Blitzkrieg.
- [36:02]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
Mr. Brown?
- [36:02]
Politician or Speaker Clip
Yes, ma'.
- [36:03]
Am.
- [36:03]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
The question was about do you think they're about right in Idaho? Too high or too low?
- [36:08]
Politician or Speaker Clip
Well,
- [36:13]
Ryan Grusky
When he says blitzkrieg, it's just the best. I love it. It's the greatest debate in American history. Not Lincoln, Douglas, not Kennedy, Nixon, not Biden, Trump. This is my favorite, favorite, favorite debate. It is so good. The two candidates in the end and I'm getting a combined 5% of the Republican primary. It just I had to share it on this Friday.
- [36:33]
Politician or Speaker Clip
Great.
- [36:33]
Ryan Grusky
It's the best. Okay, ask me. Anything is next.
- [36:37]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
Hey guys, have you ever found yourself craving a cold snack?
- [36:41]
Yep.
- [36:41]
Do you even know what a cold snack is?
- [36:43]
I do.
- [36:43]
Well, some of you may have noticed I've been wearing a Montucky shirt on the video version of the podcast. And that's because Montucky makes my favorite cold snack. That's right. It's a cold snackable beer and summer is the best time to enjoy it.
- [36:57]
Ryan Grusky
You're right, Ders. Montucky is a light American lager from Bozeman, Montana. It's snappy, shareable, and perfect for all occasions.
- [37:09]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
Hey, that sounds like the dream beer to me. Go to montuckycoldsnacks.com snack finder to find Montucky cold snacks and a retailer near you. And if you're looking for some Montucky merch, use important snacks all one word for 20% off their merch store.
- [37:30]
They got some cold horses on those kids.
- [37:33]
Cold snacks.
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- [39:36]
Ryan Grusky
Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryanumbersgame podcast.com that's ryan@numbers plural numbersgamepodcast.com first question up is Frank from New York. You wrote Just a suggestion. I feel like we're due for a European politics episode update. It sounds like a lot's happening in France and the uk, but I'm too lazy to read up on it. So can you do an update on the podcast? Looking forward to it, Frank. I love doing episodes on Europe and foreign countries politics, but the thing is that listenership nose dives every time I do it. So I don't, I want to know what the audience is feeling, but the audience overall doesn't like to do episodes on foreign countries. So I'll just give you a quick update. Right now in the uk, Keir Starmer is about to resign. He's, he said he's going to, we're just waiting for like the days he'll be likely, I mean, extremely likely, replaced by mp, member of Parliament and former mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham. Burnham is kind of comes from all sides of the Labor Party. He's been with the progressives at times, he's been with the Conservatives at times. He's been all over the place. And, and he is getting a bump in the polls right now because people are excited about a new prime minister. Nigel Farage from Reform UK is also dealing with some bad PR at the moment. So Burnham is getting a bounce in the polls, but the economy in Britain is still terrible. Mass immigration is still happening to a lower scale than it was, but still happening. They have deep restrictions in what the government can do because of the bond market. So it's bad either way, I don't expect the balance to last very long. There is a special election. Farage resigned from Parliament because he's dealing with some negative press. So he resigned and now he's running for the seat again, but no one else. Just basically to show how popular he is in the seat. But every other party dropped out of the race. So he's basically running uncontested. He's running as a guy dressed as a garbage can. So he should be winning, you know, no problem. There's no big election in England until next year when they have another round of local elections. The next general election in the UK is not till 2029 at least. I mean, they can call it whenever, but they're not going to call right now because Labor's in such a bad state. They would lose well over 100 seats. They will lose the majority. They'd have to do a coalition government. It'd be very messy. So Annie Burnham is not going to do a special election unless his poll numbers really surge. But I doubt that's going to happen. Over in France, it's much more interesting. The French court gave Marine Le Pen a reduced sentence to run and so she can run for President. She was found guilty of embezzling EU funds and was ban from running. And now she's allowed to run for President. The election will take place next year and as of now she has a tremendous lead in the first round. France is a presidential election that has a runoff, so they have two rounds. So the first round everyone runs and the second round it's the top two. And then the congressional primary. The congressional elections, first round and second round are later on the same year. She is beating every major opponent by a wide margin. The only one who's even close to her in the second round is Eduardo. Eduardo Felipe. He is the former Prime Minister of the country. She's beat him in the last three polls, but within the margin of error. Everybody else she is beating by double digits. It's not even close. He's the only one who's even in contention. Le Pen's successor, Jordan Bardella, is slightly more popular than her, but only by a point or two. Interestingly enough, this is like kind of European gospel no one cares about in America, but I love it. Jordan is a very handsome 30 year old politician. He'd be the youngest president of France, like since Napoleon, if he were to be the president. But he's not running anyway. He's very popular, very handsome. He used to date Marine Le Pen, his successor's niece and they had a slightly ugly breakup, and now he's dating an Italian princess. And I wonder, part of me wonders if Marine was like, I'm gonna run because you may have screwed over my niece. It's fairly internal and French gossip, but I. I do love it anyway. Beating every. She's beating everyone by double digits. Jordan Bardella is not running. If for some reason in the second round, the French nominate Jean Luc Melochan. He is like the Bernie Sanders type candidate for the French French politics. Although he's far to the left of Bernie Sanders, if you can believe it. She's gonna beat him by 35 points. It's going to be a clobbering. Jean Luc Melachon recently came out against air conditioning. He said that it's bad for everyone's lungs and he doesn't want it in France. And that's the state of French politics right now. Okay, next up is from my buddy Peter fomo. He said. One thing I've noticed was most unhinged anti Trump people share is certain traits of boomer. Educated, affluent, white, and mostly female. I recently noticed a friend of mine posting pictures of herself at a no Kings protest. She was a Reagan conservative in the past, and it really bothered me seeing that. What is it about Trump that is causing this phenomenon? If the phenomenon that I'm observing is demographically accurate? I think there is. There's definitely, Peter, a large segment of that no Kings protest type, Democrat resistance type that is absolutely older female. It's not all Democrats, obviously, but it's a lot of them. And I will say this. I think that Steve Bannon, accurately, one of the things he said accurately is understanding the hatred Trump brings from that certain demographic of women of that certain age. I think Bannon was like, like. Trump is the patriarch personified. He is the father who never loved you. He is the boss who never promoted you, the husband who cheated on you, the boyfriend who wouldn't marry you, the son who married that woman you hate. It's every kind of guy that they've ever hated their life in one person. I think that really is there just something that sets women off. And I think that there's a large portion of women who kind of just reject him for who he is, and there's no going back.
- [45:38]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
And.
- [45:39]
Ryan Grusky
Yeah, and also, women have become more increasingly progressive over time. Okay, next question is Brian from Tennessee. You're right. Hi, Ryan. I'm so sorry your parents left B off of your name. Very funny, Brian. I often see ads and get texts claiming donations to a campaign will be matched double tripled if you donate within certain time frame. Do these matches really happen? If so, how so? No, they don't usually happen. This is just a fundraising tactic. What they're doing is saying like, oh, we've raised a million dollars. If you match and you guys all give a million dollars, you will have match. Or we're trying to match with this kind of thing that we've raised before. But no, no. Or like a large donor gave us $2 million. Come and match with it. It's not like it's. But it's not like if you give a dollar, someone else will give a dollar. That's not how it works. It's mostly a fundraising employee and it's highly effective. I'll just say that. Okay, last question comes from Christopher. Christopher writes. Hi, Ryan, second time writing in. Trump, along with Israel, started the Iran war to obsessively rid them of the ability to have a nuclear bomb. After 3 1/2 months, 3 1/2 months of war, up to the point of the ceasefire in mid June, did we gain our objective? The answer is no. We're right back where we started. But over the time, we've spent tens of billions of dollars we don't have prosecuting the war. We've run stockpiles of many key munitions down to dangerously low levels. Thirteen US Servicemen have lost their lives and American families has been hundreds of thousands of dollars more given the war induced inflation, money they'll never get back. I have yet to see widespread coverage of these points in the media and zero acknowledgment from those who thought the war was a good idea, when, by the way, I'm giving you acknowledgment right now. I believe Trump is very vulnerable on this point once, once people figure it out. My question to you, is this to your knowledge, has there been any polling been done on this and if so, what are the results? I know Trump's approval ratings are not good right now, but could they be driven even lower from his decision to go to war and the start of what it looks like from another forever war type situation? Thanks, Ryan. Love the podcast. Give the good work. You're the only one speaking the truth on many of these issues. Thank you so much. So the polls have shown obviously that the war is very negative. The war is more negative now than Trump's approval ratings are during the beginning of the war. I'm not going to go through every poll, but I'll go through the aggregate. The overall, the overall when the war started 41% of Americans supported the war, 49% opposed it. It's now 34 supported, 57 opposed it. So those supporting have dropped by seven points. Those opposing have added by eight. That is a very, very stark number. Could that lead to Trump's negative numbers going down? Trump's negative numbers have hit new lows, lowers than they've been even during January six. And some of these polling numbers, it's not the war itself, it's the ripple effect through the economy that's really getting people upset and turning their back on the war. Because for most Americans, the war has, the physical war hasn't touched them. Like you said, it's 13Americans have died, horrific, but it's not 130,000Americans who have died. Like, we're not all feeling the actual munitions depletion, but everyone's feeling gas prices. So that's the side effect. Could it affect Trump more? I think it really is. I think it's hitting his numbers pretty badly. And if he somehow is able to reduce the shock of the war or end it and get gas prices down, maybe it will bounce up on the just legitimacy of like the idea of a forever war. I don't think it's going to negatively affect him for that reason. I think it's going to affect him for the fact because most people aren't feeling it, they're just not feeling the forever war. We're not seeing videos of the forever war online all the time like we were during Iraq. I think it's the gas prices and the food prices and all the rest of it. That's where we're gonna, that's where we're getting hit. And his numbers are affected because of that and the war numbers are affected because that. All right, that's this episode. Happy Friday everyone. Have a wonderful, wonderful weekend. We'll be back Monday. We have a jam packed week next week. It's crazy. So like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts and on YouTube wherever you get this podcast. I appreciate everyone for listening. Talk to you guys on Monday.
- [49:47]
Podcast Host (Ad Read)
You know what quality feels like. You can see it in the way a fabric moves, recognize it in a flawless fit and appreciate it in the details that make our styles unique. It's the standard Coldwater Creek has honored for over 40 years, derived from a rich Mountain west heritage and designed to for today in styles that are distinctively Coldwater Creek. For a wardrobe you can count on season after season, visit coldwatercreek.com shop new arrivals and save 15 on purchases 75 or more with code iheart there's a
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