It's a Numbers Game Podcast: The Numbers Behind California's Political Landscape with John Phillips

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show Episode: It's a Numbers Game Podcast: The Numbers Behind California's Political Landscape with John Phillips
Release Date: July 10, 2025
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts

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Introduction

In this episode of It's a Numbers Game Podcast, host Ryan Graduski delves deep into the evolving political landscape of California with esteemed radio host John Phillips. The discussion navigates through significant shifts in voter registration, the impact of national figures like Elon Musk on state politics, and the challenges faced by the Democratic Party in maintaining its dominance. This comprehensive analysis offers listeners a detailed understanding of the numbers driving California's political scene.

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Elon Musk’s America Party Proposal

Ryan Graduski opens the conversation by highlighting Elon Musk's recent announcement to establish a new political entity, the America Party. Musk's initiative stems from his dissatisfaction with the prevailing two-party system, which he believes leads to national bankruptcy and ineffective governance.

“Today the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom.”
— Elon Musk, 16:07

Graduski compares Musk’s endeavor to Ross Perot’s 1992 third-party run, questioning the viability and potential impact of such a movement in the current political climate.

Analysis of Third Parties in U.S. Politics

John Phillips provides a historical perspective on third-party movements in the United States, noting the significant challenges they face in gaining traction within a predominantly two-party system.

“The chances of someone outside a major party winning a seat as an independent is extremely slim.”
— John Phillips, 02:07

He cites examples like James Buckley of the Conservative Party in 1971 and Bernie Sanders’ independent Senate campaigns, emphasizing the rarity of third-party successes.

Phillips discusses the structural barriers to ballot access in states like New York and Texas, contrasting them with more accessible states such as Colorado and Vermont. He argues that Musk’s America Party would need substantial resources and a clear, comprehensive platform beyond just tackling the national debt to succeed.

California’s Shifting Voter Registration

The conversation shifts focus to California’s voter registration trends, where Graduski presents data showing a decline in the Democratic voter advantage over three years.

“In November of 2022, California Democrats had a 5,051,164 voter advantage. By March 2025, that number had fallen to 4,590,965—a decline of 460,000 voters in the voter advantage in just three years.”
— Ryan Graduski, 19:18

Phillips attributes this shift to growing voter dissatisfaction with Democratic governance, citing issues such as homelessness, crime, and budget mismanagement as key factors driving voters away.

“Democrats are continuing to register voters. Democrats are losing support... People are upset at their performance on any number of state issues.”
— John Phillips, 19:18

Performance of Democrats in California

Phillips critiques the Democratic Party’s handling of state issues, highlighting specific failures that have eroded voter trust. He paints a bleak picture of cities like Oakland, describing them as “a horror movie” due to rampant homelessness and crime.

“Oakland looks like the day after the end of the world... It's like something out of a zombie apocalypse movie.”
— John Phillips, 21:33

He argues that the party’s focus on nationalizing elections and overshadowing local issues has contributed to their declining support in California.

Possibility of Republican Resurgence in California

The discussion turns to potential strategies for the Republican Party to regain ground in California. Phillips suggests focusing on traditional strongholds like San Diego and investing in competitive legislative districts where Republicans can make significant gains with targeted campaigning and funding.

“San Diego has had Republican mayors in the past and remains a city where Republicans should have a fighting chance both citywide and in certain districts.”
— John Phillips, 35:29

He also recommends leveraging influential figures and substantial financial resources to support credible candidates who can resonate with disillusioned voters.

Governor Gavin Newsom’s Political Evolution

Graduski probes the transformation of California Governor Gavin Newsom from a progressive leader to a centrist figure, questioning his potential presidential ambitions.

“He is in a feat gentry class San Franciscan and that just doesn't sell right now... it is very different trying to win over blue-collar people in Michigan or Pennsylvania.”
— John Phillips, 25:27-25:40

Phillips expresses skepticism about Newsom’s ability to connect with a broader national electorate, citing his limited appeal beyond California’s urban centers.

Nancy Pelosi’s Potential Primary Challenge

The conversation also touches upon Nancy Pelosi facing a primary challenge from a state senator. Phillips anticipates political maneuvering to protect Pelosi’s influence within the Democratic Party, suggesting that internal dynamics may lead to contentious primaries.

“If the election were held today, my guess is that Scott Wiener would probably beat Nancy Pelosi's daughter.”
— John Phillips, 27:05

He foresees potential strategies Pelosi might employ to maintain her position, including exerting influence to favor her preferred candidates.

Local Governance Issues in California

Phillips delivers a scathing critique of local governance in California, particularly highlighting the decline in public services and infrastructure. He underscores the dire state of public spaces, libraries, and transportation systems, attributing these to Democratic mismanagement.

“They basically can't use public transit. You can't use the parks... It's like, you've just given up our public spaces to essentially the zombies.”
— John Phillips, 20:18

He emphasizes that these failures have tangible impacts on residents' quality of life, further fueling voter dissatisfaction.

Conclusion

In wrapping up the episode, Graduski and Phillips agree that California stands at a political crossroads. The Democratic Party must address its governance shortcomings to prevent further voter loss, while Republicans have an opportunity to exploit these weaknesses by focusing on effective local governance and targeted campaigning.

“If this is really about the debt, my... I think going through the states is the best and easiest way possible.”
— John Phillips, 02:07

The episode concludes with a call to action for Republicans to strategically invest in key regions and advocate for policy changes that resonate with disillusioned voters, positioning themselves as viable alternatives in California’s political future.

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Notable Quotes:

• “The chances of someone outside a major party winning a seat as an independent is extremely slim.”
  — John Phillips, 02:07

• “Democrats are continuing to register voters. Democrats are losing support... People are upset at their performance on any number of state issues.”
  — John Phillips, 19:18

• “Oakland looks like the day after the end of the world... It's like something out of a zombie apocalypse movie.”
  — John Phillips, 21:33

• “San Diego has had Republican mayors in the past and remains a city where Republicans should have a fighting chance both citywide and in certain districts.”
  — John Phillips, 35:29

• “He is in a feat gentry class San Franciscan and that just doesn't sell right now... it is very different trying to win over blue-collar people in Michigan or Pennsylvania.”
  — John Phillips, 25:27-25:40

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This episode offers a thorough examination of California's shifting political dynamics, enriched by John Phillips' expert insights and supported by compelling numerical data. Whether you're a political enthusiast or seeking to understand the undercurrents shaping one of the nation's most populous states, this discussion provides valuable perspectives on the future of California politics.

Transcript

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[Ryan Graduski]

Welcome back to a Numbers Game podcast with Ryan Graduski. Thank you for being here on this Thursday episode. On our last episode we had a listener request from a woman named Patty to do an entire thing on California politics. So this is the second part of our show will be about California. This is for you Patty. I I'm doing this show for my listeners. I'm here for you guys. So if you have an idea for a show, send me an email@ryanumbersgame podcast.com and I will do my best. But before we get to California radio host John Phillips talking about the state, I want to talk about Elon Musk for a second. Over the Fourth of July weekend, Musk announced that he was going to start his own political party called the America Party. He conducted a poll on Twitter asking his audience if we should have a third party and 65% said y yes. So the following day on July 5, he tweeted by a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it. When it comes to bankrupting our country and with waste and graft, we live in a one party system, not a democracy. Today the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom. At the focal point of creating a new party is Musk's frustration with congressional Republicans and President Trump's big beautiful bill, which failed to balance the budget and add in trillions of new debt over the next decade. Musk said that he was hoping to target a handful of seats in the House and Senate, which would give the party leverage in the next Congress, especially if the margins between Republicans and Democrats were were tight. Basically, if Speaker Johnson needed the votes of people from the America Party to become speaker because there wasn't enough outright Republicans, he'd have to make certain some concessions on the debt and spending and vice versa. If it was a Democrat speaker with a similar margin, this instantly earned criticism from the media. In comparison to the last billionaire who decided to run for president on a third party ticket in 1992, Ross Perot, who led in the polls through most of the early parts of his campaign until he dropped out several months in, only to announce that he was going to run again, and then relaunched his campaign with much lower poll numbers. He ultimately ended up getting 19% of the election and never won a single state. He probably would have won a state had he stayed in the race. I think his numbers went from like 35% to 8 and then grew to 19, but in the end he lost and he's perceived as the spoiler that won Bill Clinton that election. I know this is nothing to do with what I want to talk about, but this is just drives me crazy. Perot was not the spoiler that got Clinton elected. Once Perot dropped out, most of his numbers went to Clinton. And when he jumped back into the race, he took more votes from Clinton than from Bush. In the summer, when Perot was not in the race, Clinton actually led bush by over 20 points in some polls. He ended up going down to the single digits once Perot jumped back in anyway. Side note, a little bit of history of politics, because it just drives me crazy when people say that, okay, let's go back to Elon Musk. What are cha. What are the chances that Elon is successful in his bid to launch the American party? Well, he's not talking about a presidential candidate running for president, at least not yet. He's talking about the Senate and Congress, but that's basically just as much of a long shot as President. Currently we have two independents in the Senate, Bernie Sanders from Vermont and Angus King from Maine, both of whom caucus with the Democrats and none in the House before them. The last Senator who won a race by being a third party candidate, not a Republican or Democrat, who became third party, but a true third party candidate, was New York's James Buckley in 1971 when he won as a member of the Conservative Party. Before him was Arkansas's John Miller in 1937. The last time that we elected an independent in The House was 1990 with Rep. Then Representative Bernie Sanders before him. You've got to go back to 197079 with William Carney when he won a seat in New York and the Conservative Party as a member of the Conservative Party. So the chances of someone outside a major party winning a seat as an independent is extremely slim. Currently, out of the thousands of state legislative seats in the country, only 36 are by people who are either independents or members of a minor party like the Progressive Party of Vermont or the Forward Party of Utah. Now there's also a question of access to party lines. Some states make it very difficult for non Republicans and non Democrats to even get on the ballot. States like New York, Georgia, Illinois, Texas and North Carolina are very difficult because candidates need to get a certain threshold of valid signatures based upon the people who voted in the previous gubernatorial election. And they have to do it in a very short window. And all those signatures are verified. There's lawyers that go through it and it has to sometimes go in front of a judge. It's very hard. States that make it Easy to get in the get on the ballot are places like Colorado, Minnesota, Vermont, Maine and Hawaii. But none of those states actually have a lot of seats that compete in the House. And as far as Senate seats go, they're all Democrats except for Susan Collins. Now, Elon brings a lot of resources to the table, most notably money and press. Anyone running for office under the America Party will definitely have access to both, especially the first time, because they'll all perceive it as being difficult. There's also a question of the America Party's platform. Sure, the ideas of tackling the deficit and space exploration are very popular. People are very interested in those two subjects, and they're way more popular than Musk himself is. But what are the other issues that this party is going to stand for? What are they going to think about gun control or abortion or immigration or China? Things that Musk is far outside the mainstream. The GOP and Democrats on. You can't run for office on only two issues. That's not going to work. This is a very expensive gamble where every grifter, consultant, and I know a bunch of them are gonna sit there and try to get their claws into and try to work for Musk. Listen, if this is really about the debt, my. I myself, and most Republicans I know will probably agree with Musk. Hell, I know a lot of Democrats would agree with Musk. They think the spending is out of control. They're worried about the debt. They're worried about inflation from it. They think Congress has failed us on this issue. But a third party is probably not going to get him anywhere. A better way forward, and this was echoed by Governor Ron DeSantis, was to get states to move forward on a balanced budget amendment added to the Constitution. Currently, 27 states have signed on to a resolution supporting a constitutional convention that would add the amendment. We need seven more states in order to have the convention and then 11 states total. Sorry, 11 more states on top of the 2738 total to pass a constitutional amendment. I wrote this on my Substack, the national populist newsletter. It's on substack.com if you want to visual. I map the whole thing out. It's a free article, so you don't have to sign up, although if you want to. Very much appreciated, but there's already 27 states that have signed on. There's also four more with Republican trifectors who haven't signed on, but could in South Carolina, West Virginia, Montana and Idaho. If you live in those states and you want your legislature and Governor to sign on to a balanced budget amendment of the Constitution. You can absolutely do that. And Musk could probably spend a lot less money lobbying legislators to bring that up for a vote and getting the governor to sign it. That would take him to 31. So he only needs 34 to even get the convention. There are two more states with Republican legislatures, but a Democratic governor, Kentucky and Wisconsin. You flip those two governorships and you're at 33. All you need is one more. Musk could invest a lot less money than starting a third party by investing in places with either close legislative elections where the Republicans, Democrats have very small margins, or areas that President Trump is gaining steam and has gained steam and over the last few election cycles. So places like Vermont, which has a liberal Republican governor, but where the GOP made immense gains in the last election, they almost tied the state Senate and they won more than a dozen seats in the state House. He could invest in Vermont. He could invest in Minnesota, where the Republicans hold the state House, not the state Senate by one. One vote, one seat in both places. He could invest in Virginia, which is also a one seat margin in both places and has a very conservative Republican governor. There's all those opportunities that is, you know, at, you know, right in front of us, right in front of us. That takes a lot less money and makes huge gains on a number of issues for people who live in those states. There's also states like New Mexico and New Jersey, which have, which are Democratic, but where Trump made huge, you know, gains. He, he increased his support substantially. And there's also places like Rhode Island, Rhode island, even though being a Democratic state, Republicans are anemic in the state legislature, far less what President Trump receives. And they are the Democrats in the state. A lot of them are extremely conservative. There's a running joke in political circle circles that most of the Democrats in the state legislature voted for Trump. So there's ways to get around it. To get 1 to 34 votes in to get a Constitutional convention going and to get 38 votes to pass a constitutional amendment that demanding Congress have a balanced budget every year. It's possible, and it is much easier than hoping that you win a dozen House seats and several U.S. senate seats to make demands on the part of Chuck Schumer or John Thune or Speaker Johnson or Hakeem Jeffries. That's actually much more difficult than, than Elon Musk thinks. So if this is about, if this is really about the budget and the deficit, I'm with Elon. I think we have to get it under control. I think going through the states is the best and easiest way possible. But if this is not, if this is about EV mandates or just a few with Trump or, you know, who knows, something else that he's thinking about in that exact moment, then this is a vanity project, one that he is going to spend waste a lot of people's time, energy and getting people's hopes up for nothing. Anyway. That's where Musk should focus his attention. Because if he's really talking about EV mandates or about, you know, a feud with Trump, he's going to get people's hopes up a lot of for very, very little. And if he wants to actually solve this problem, the debt, a constitutional convention is definitely the way to go. Now let's focus in on Wednesday particularly this is my episode with John Phillips about the state of California.

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[Ryan Graduski]

With me for this episode is my buddy John Phillips. He is a fantastic radio host out of la. He's on KABC radio. He knows everything. He's expert on everything California. So John, thanks for being here.

[John Phillips]

Thank you for having me.

[Ryan Graduski]

So John, most people don't realize, but Trump increased his vote share in California in not one but two back to back elections. He lost California by 30 points in 2016, 29 points in 2020 and 20 points in 2024 was a 10 point jump over 12 years despite Kamala that her being her home state. Is it because voters knew Kamala or is there was a bigger thing going on?

[John Phillips]

In an odd sort of way, I think that Kamala helped the Democrats in California because before Kamala became the nominee, they were running Joe Biden's rotting corpse. And Joe Biden's rotting corpse was not doing too hot, even in places like California. And if you go back to when Democrats in their internal caucus meetings started sounding the alarms, one of the loudest voices was a Democrat from California, Mark Takano, who represents a Democratic district in Riverside. And he said that he had polling showing Joe Biden losing his district. And if that was going to happen, then you were going to see essentially a landslide nationwide and an even more dramatic shift in California. Kamala kind of helped stabilize that a little bit. But if you look at just voter registration numbers since the election, these trends have all continued. Republicans are continuing to register voters. Democrats are losing support. And the Democrats I think in California in part pushed a little bit too far where people are upset at their performance on any number of state issues, whether it's homelessness, crime, the budget, the bullet, train, insurance, whatever. And right now they're starting to pay those consequences. It's not enough for them to start losing statewide races yet, but it's enough to, to make them concerned.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, you mentioned the voter registration. I have some numbers here. So In November of 2022, California Democrats had a 5,051,164 voter advantage. By March 2025, that number had fallen to 4,590,965 is a decline of 460,000 voters in the voter advantage in just three years. In a party that like the California GOP is not the Florida GOP. Right. They don't have the tremendous political apparatus to register Voters in and an effective state like ahead of head of govern. They don't have any statewide elected offices, but there's no one really directing that. So although they did win, I think three legislative seats last year, they won two state House seats and one state Senate seats. Why are voters seemingly in a state that doing this organically or is there an organization, apparatus really trying to register these voters?

[John Phillips]

Well, I mean, you have some people who are, who are doing that. Rick Grinnell has a group, Fix California that's registering voters. And you know, the state party chairwoman, the outgoing state chairwoman, Jessica Patterson would take credit for some of it. But, but I do think it's organic. I think it's, it's not something that any organized group is producing. I think what you're seeing is you're seeing real movement among portions of the Democratic coalition that are just not happy with what they're, what they're getting. I mean, don't forget we pay a fortune to live here. And you basically can't use many of the public services. You can't use public transit. You can't use the parks, including MacArthur park, which Gavin Newsom is now declared to be beautiful, which is hilarious because it's an open air prison. You know, you can't use the libraries. That's where the bums look at porn. You know, we've just given up our public spaces to essentially the zombies. And, and you know, if you're a young Latino guy who's trying to start a family, or you're a young Asian guy who's trying to start a business or whatever, that pisses you off. And I think that those are the groups where you're starting to see the real movement. And it's totally understandable.

[Ryan Graduski]

Is Kamala Harris going to be the next governor of California thing?

[John Phillips]

Oh, God, I hope not.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, who, who is a real republic or Republican who could actually run a competitive statewide race and maybe even if they can, when they could help Republicans down ballot.

[John Phillips]

So there's two schools of thought to this. One is you need a very rich person to come in and essentially pull what Meg Whitman pulled, which is start throwing crazy money into state parties and county parties and really funding a professionalized operation that can compete with the Democratic Party and the money that the unions throw into it and Hollywood in Silicon Valley and those sorts of things. That's what we did with Meg Whitman. That's what we did with Bill Simon. And certainly if Grant Cardone, who is the Trump associate, jumps into the race for governor and spends a ton of money. We would certainly be moving along with that model. There's another model that I think would actually work better that hasn't been spoken of a lot, but it's what we used to do in the past. So the way that California used to work was essentially you had a few different groups, a few different organizations, let's call it, that would get together and would get in a room and decide who would be the nominee, and then they would put up the money. It used to be the railroads, the oil companies, and the Chandler family, the family that owned the LA Times. And that's how Dick Nixon, for example, got picked to be the US Senator. He was their fourth or fifth choice, but it was that cabal of people that picked him and then funded the candidacy so he could win the seat. I think that we now have a cadre of people who have the power to do that. Most of them come from the tech industry. If Elon Musk wants to make a contribution that, that pushes down debt or modernizes government, whatever it is that he's, he's, you know, leaning into that particular day, you could have someone like him and Peter Thiel and David Sachs, a group of them get together and say, okay, here's what we're going to do. We're going to put up $100 million, which to them is nothing, but in the world of politics, is a huge sum of money. And we're going to find someone who has the ability to answer questions in a coherent way on a debate stage, has a resume, has a name, and run that person. Just think if you had $100 million behind Lonnie Chen or someone like that who would otherwise never be able to raise the money, but you just have the money. People stay in their lane and put up the money that's necessary to make that campaign viable. And instead of trying to make themselves the candidates, which is always just, you know, Asiana going into sfo, you know, just let them do what they're good at, let them raise money and let, let. Let someone who understands the vocation of politics be the candidate. And then, boom, there you go. You have a credible candidate, you have money.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. And, I mean, with so much of AI regulation coming out of California for the national standard, you would imagine they would be invested in getting somebody. I have a question to your current governor, Gavin Newsom, who, by all looks of it, seems to be planning a run for president. He is on his third version of himself. He's now back to being a centrist podcast host. He was a progressive Fighter. He was a progressive actually most of his life. I think post marriage to Kimberly Guilfoyle. He was very, very far left. But he was, he's moved away from a noticeable number of things. He was a race, race conscious white guy during the BLM riots. Now he's a, now he's going to be the centrist voice who could talk to regular white Americans. What do you make of his evolution? And if he. I don't think that he has a real chance. But what do you think?

[John Phillips]

I think you're probably right. He does not connect with blue collar whites at all. You look at his performance in California, he's very popular along the coast. He's very popular in the big cities. He's popular with the wine and Bree crowd. But that's enough to get by in San Francisco and enough to get by statewide in California if you have the teachers unions behind you, which he did when he initially ran for governor. But it's not enough to win a Democratic primary and it's certainly not enough to win a presidential election. He is in a feat gentry class San Franciscan and that just doesn't sell right now. I know Nancy Pelosi was able to become the speaker of the House and was a very successful Democratic speaker of the House. But those are internal caucus elections. It's very different trying to win over blue collar people in Michigan or Pennsylvania or even in the, in the Democratic primaries. I mean, one of the places he's going to in South Carolina, besides all the diners or the, you know, a guy who would need a car if it smacked him in the face is now, you know, hitting every Waffle House along the eastern seaboard. But he's going to the black churches and it's like, okay, here's this rich guy who owns Plump Jack Winery, who dines at the French Laundry, who's going to start showing up to the black churches in South Carolina with an Amos and Andy draw. And he thinks that that's going to work.

[Ryan Graduski]

I speaking of Nancy Pelosi, I didn't even have this question written down, but it just dawned on me. What do you think of her getting a primary challenge from a state senator?

[John Phillips]

Well, that's not entirely what's happening. So. So she is 85 years old right now and has opened up an account to run for re election, although she hasn't gone on the record saying what she's going to do. For sure, her daughter Christine, who is very active within the California Democratic Party, wants that seed. Scott Wiener has been an elected official in that area in the state legislature and the Board of Supervisors for a very long time, and he has long coveted that seat. If the election were held today, my guess is that Scott Wiener would probably beat Nancy Pelosi's daughter, and everyone understands that. So what Pelosi will likely do, in my opinion, is pull some kind of stunt that benefits her daughter and screws over all other competitors, with Scott Wiener being at the top of the list. So if she decides right before the filing deadline that she's not going to do it, tells the daughter, doesn't tell anyone else, then the daughter obviously benefits from that. If she were to resign so that a special election would take place on a date where they think it benefits them, then she's going to go ahead and do that. And I think Weiner understands that they're going to pull some dirty trick that will help her daughter. So he has opened up an account not because he intends on running against Nancy Pelosi, but because he is. It's a defensive mechanism just in case she decides to pull a stunt.

[Ryan Graduski]

That's interesting. I can't imagine the Democratic caucus without Nancy Pelosi. I really, I mean, it's. She is kind of like that one figure who never goes away. But California, like my home state of New York, suffers from the same sort of problems that the population is leaving. Life is unaffordable. The urban areas and some parts of the urban areas are just horror shows of drug addiction and crime. And people are just. They won't take it anymore. And we're replacing very productive members of society who pay a lot of taxes with illegal aliens, with some legal aliens who just don't bring the same number in tax revenue. And Democrats answer to, I think, voters concerns. This was the case of Andrew Cuomo. And I think it's the case a lot of times with some California people, though they pretend it's more optimistic, but they. Their average. Their ad in New York was I will manage your decline. That's basically what they're saying constantly. I will manage the decline better than anybody else. What is a. What is the answer then for a Republican? Because for so long people would say we were the state back in the 50s, 60s, 70s. No one, no real voting bloc that is alive, remembers that time when California's public schools were the best in the country.

[John Phillips]

Yeah. Democrats survive their poor performance by nationalizing every election. Every election is about abortion. It is about climate change. It is about the Supreme Court, it is about Donald Trump. It has nothing to do with anything regarding issues they would have Influence over. And because we've become so tribal with our politics, the moment you let the voting electorate know that you're the Democrat who hates Donald Trump and that the other guy is the Republican who loves Donald Trump, that's usually good morning, good afternoon, good night. And in California, don't forget, that's how Gavin Newsom saved himself. During the recall. There was a moment in time where I think we had two or three polls in a row that showed him losing. And he was able to right the ship by making the election essentially a federal one. And it's not just Gavin Newsom. I mean, you look at races for city council or water board or school board or whatever, it's all the same thing which leads to the death of local government. And if you want to find the most, most gross example of, of, of the liberal Democratic excess in California, it's not even San Francisco, it's Oakland. Oakland looks like the day after the end of the world. I went there, I'm an Angel fan and I went there last season to watch the Angels play the A's. And you get on the BART in San Francisco and you go under the bay and you come out and what you see is like something that you would see out of, you know, one of those zombie apocalypse movies where every spot on the road is taken by an RV that had been set on fire that is non operational. And the graffiti is not only on, on public spaces, like single family homes are all tagged up. The amount of trash on the streets is shocking. It looked like images of South Florida after Hurricane Andrew hit where you just had just, you know, trash and debris everywhere. And when you get out off the subway and you walk on this like enclosed catwalk that has a chain link fence around it, you walk over a homeless encampment full of RVs where they just set things on fire. So you're walking over these RVs that are on fire to get to the baseball stadium to watch the game. And, and that is, that is a, a level of government. The Oakland city government that is run entirely by Democrats. Everyone on the council, the mayor, the da, school board, whatever, like, they own that. That should be the city on the hill for them. That shows you like, you give us everything we want. This is what we produce. Well, guess what? It's a horror movie if you go along with that. And for Republicans, I think the goal is to take the focus off of those federal issues that don't have anything to do with the failures in California and just bring it back to the basics. Throw the Ball, catch the ball, hit the ball. Every time they talk about Trump, every time they talk about immigration, every time they talk about abortion or things that don't have anything to do with anything at the state level, you just have to keep bringing it back to the nuts and bolts of their failure in running the government.

[Ryan Graduski]

So you're saying I should fly into San Francisco and I have to go to a wedding in the area? Not, not Oakland.

[John Phillips]

Oh, if you rent a car in Oakland, there's a street called the Hagenberger right near the airport. If you rent a car in Oakland, they will give you a whole list of places that you can't go to because if you do, you will get carjacked or they will break into your, your trunk and steal all your clothes, steal all your bags while you're pumping gas in the car or sitting through a drive through or whatever. And their insurance policy won't cover it. If you go to one of those places. And it's a long list.

[Ryan Graduski]

That is I, that is very wild. So if you look at like I was making a joke with that because we're, I'm flying into, I'm, I have a wedding next month and I'm flying into San Francisco over there. But I looked at the Oakland, I'm like, oh, the Oakland price for flights aren't that bad. Now I know why.

[John Phillips]

Oakland for the divorce.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, the, the last thing is we've seen in California, 1, 1 sign of hope is that some moderate Democrats have won, like the DA's race in Los Angeles and in San Francisco and the school board in San Francisco. Is there any cities that you can point to that are a sign of hope for Republicans where they're really making up ground? Over in Imperial county, there's been tremendous movement from Republicans somewhat in Riverside County. I think it's San Jose. I was looking this up. San Jose. It also had tremendous growth for Republicans in it. I think certain precincts are actually going Republican for the very first time. That seems to me like there is a potential because Republicans can't just give up these massive urban centers and say, what do you want?

[John Phillips]

Let it burn.

[Ryan Graduski]

I hear some New York Mandani all the time. What do you want? Who cares? It's just New York. No, the, like this is, I mean, we shouldn't have to surrender every major city in this country. And that's what they're essentially doing. I mean, is there any place that you're saying, wow, Republicans have a chance to pick up even local seats then?

[John Phillips]

Well, historically, that city has always been San Diego, where San Diego has had Republican mayors. Pete Wilson at one point in time was a Republican mayor of San Diego. Most recently we had Kevin Faulkner who was the mayor before the current mayor. And, and they had very good city government in San Diego and then they gave it to this left wing Democratic assemblyman and it just went to hell. And now San Diego looks like Los Angeles and San Francisco and not quite like Oakland, but looks like the other big cities in California. And, and I think that, that the Republicans should certainly focus on that city because it's not ancient history when that city was run well and they can go back to that if they choose to. And even though it's a Democratic city now and, and you know, a lot of the people who work in the defense industry are gone and a lot of people who work in the military are gone. It's still a city where Republicans should have a fighting chance both citywide and in certain districts. So that's where I would focus on on the Democratic side of the aisle. The only city where they're actually doing anything productive right now is San Jose with Matt Mahan, the Democratic mayor there. And given his political profile and how he is just unwilling to put up with crime or homelessness that homeless people that won't accept help, you know they are going to cast him out of that party party. He, he is not going to be a Democrat in good standing much longer because he's driving them crazy. He's not backing down. He's very vocal about it. He was vocal in supporting Prop 36 directly against Gavin Newsom's wishes. And Gavin Newsom got real with him during that election.

[Ryan Graduski]

I love John Phillips so much. He'll tell you exactly how he feels.

[John Phillips]

If you want to see real bitchy. By the way, look at his press team on social media.

[Ryan Graduski]

Newsom.

[John Phillips]

Oh yeah. It's like he hires all these 20 year old Paul Lynn's and then gives him the password.

[Ryan Graduski]

That's a reference that I get and you get and no one else under 50 will understand. But anyway, I love it John. Thank you. So where can people go to read more about what? Because you're right, you write constantly. I read your stuff. And you're also the great radio show. So where people go to hear more about you.

[John Phillips]

You, you can find me online at kabc.com or ksfo.com I think it is in San Francisco. I'm on KMJ and Fresno now too.

[Ryan Graduski]

Wow.

[John Phillips]

And you can listen to me live noon to 3 in in those markets and then read me in the pages of the Orange County Register in LA Daily News.

[Ryan Graduski]

John Phillips, thank you for coming on the show.

[John Phillips]

Thank you for having me.

[Ryan Graduski]

You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. We'll be right back.

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[Ryan Graduski]

The Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, please email me ryanumbers game podcast.com that's ryanumbers plural numbers game podcast.com I read every question, every email. I try to respond to everything. If I don't do it on the show, I do it privately. So please I love your emails. Thank you for doing it. This question comes from Tristan Shelby. He writes that he's trying to figure out why younger Gen Z is more conservative than older Gen Z. He said the first thing people bring up is COVID lockdowns, but I don't see how they're necessarily related to other ideas. I think that the COVID lockdowns definitely affected people differently based upon the age in which it happened. Remember it happened five years ago and if you were living in certain places it the lockdowns were two and a half years long. So if you were 13 when it happened or 14 when it happened, you may not have had a lot of have political ideas. You may not have had your thought process fully built out. So you spent your time in those two and a half years when you were couldn't do anything besides go on the Internet. Especially at one and a half year you were probably listening to Charlie Kirk or Joe Rogan or Ben Shapiro. You were hearing them talk about lockdowns, you were hearing them talk about Florida and that it was open and maybe you saw videos of kids doing things in other states. If you were in New York or New Jersey or California or Hawaii, you saw kids in Georgia and Texas and Florida, you know, going to soccer games and baseball games and having a regular life. And that could be the big divider is when your formative years where you start getting political thoughts in your head, then you are opening yourself up to kind of more right wing ideas than you would have. Let's say if you were 21 or 22 and you're still Gen Z, but you're an older Gen Z and so your ideas were kind of already formed. Maybe some people changed their minds on some things, but maybe others didn't. Probably most didn't. So that change among young people, I think that was the key with COVID There's also I actually emailed David Shore. He's the Democratic pollster and analysis person who I think so highly of and he was the first person to really flag this issue among younger Gen Z versus older Gen Z. It was his, I think it's called the rose Rose Rose policy or rose polling. His company was the first one to say that white men In, I think 18, 20 year old white men, 75 voted for Trump, which was the largest share of any demographic that there was. And he said, and this is fascinating because I never thought of this before, he said the difference between older Gen Z is that they their parents in many times are young baby boomers. Still, you know, if a 25 year old could have a 60 year old parent, they could have had a kid and they're 35 years old. It makes complete sense. Or 40 years old if they're 65. But younger gen Z are almost entirely Gen X parents or unless they're millennial parents, but they're almost all Gen X parents. So the Gen X generation is the most right wing generation and it's possible that the most right wing generation raised a generation that was right wing and then Covid added fuel to that fire and put gasoline on the fire and made it, made them, you know, very right wing. I think that's completely possible. I think of who raised them could possibly be one of the things that motivated them to be more conservative and vote more for Trump. Anyway, something to think about. I'll definitely do more research on it though. Thank you for the question so much, Tristan and thank you guys for listening for this episode. Please like and subscribe to this podcast on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast. Wherever you get your podcast and I will see you guys on Monday.

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