The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: Political Violence Data, Immigration, Census Shifts & America’s Future
Date: September 18, 2025
Host: Ryan Girdusky (filling in)
Podcast Producer: iHeartPodcasts

Overview

On this special “Ask Me Anything” episode, Ryan Girdusky takes over and walks listeners through a range of political, demographic, and social issues shaping America’s future. The focus is on challenging narratives about political violence, analyzing how census data and immigration reform congressional power, and answering audience questions about crime, birth rates, party politics, and more. Girdusky critiques mainstream data sources, highlights shifting trends impacting elections, and mixes his trademark frankness, humor, and insider insight throughout.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Manipulation of Political Violence Data

[02:52 – 07:46]

• Critique of Nonprofit Data:
  Girdusky opens with commentary on how nonprofits like the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) and University of Cincinnati's Prosecution Project manipulate definitions and examples to inflate the prevalence of right-wing violence:

  • Selective Inclusion/Exclusion:

    • Noted omission of high-profile left-wing violence cases by ADL.
    • Inclusion of gang violence with neo-Nazi connections, even when not politically motivated, as right-wing extremism.
    • Exclusion of black nationalist gang crimes as left-wing violence.

  • Over-broad Definitions:

    • Non-violent protests at abortion clinics and small-scale robberies by non-white perpetrators included as examples of “violent right-wing extremism.”

  • Memorable quote:

    “They manipulate all of this data. They lie. … None of these cases exist, let alone BLM, let alone Antifa, let alone the CHAZ. None of it counts.” — Ryan Girdusky [06:48]

2. NYC Food Recommendations (Light Interlude)

[10:50 – 15:00]

• Audience question prompts Girdusky to give his top NYC restaurant tips, from Republican gatherings to Italian and pizza favorites—showcasing his personable side.

• Notable moment:

  “I'm a foodie. I love food. I wish I could lose weight while eating it. … I was very excited to be asked that question.” — Ryan [10:53]

3. Census Errors, Congressional Seats & Demographic Shifts

[15:01 – 19:45]

• Undercounts and Overcounts:

  • Census undercounted in six states (TX, FL, AR, IL, MS, TN), overcounted in others (NY, MA, RI, etc).
  • Correct counting would have shifted House seats more dramatically: TX & FL would have gained three each, CA projected to lose three in 2030.

• Impact of Counting Illegal Aliens:

  • TX and FL would have gained fewer seats; CA would have lost more.
  • “Illegal aliens being counted for the House of Representatives not only gives Democrats more seats, it really does take away from these red states in the Midwest, these red states in more like, you know, deep Southern places.” — Ryan [19:20]

• Looking Forward:
  Demographic shifts could reshape electoral priorities and the viability of campaign strategies.

4. Crime, Abortion, and the ‘Roe Effect’

[19:45 – 25:38]

• Debate Over What Lowered Crime Rates:

  • Sociologists credit abortion legalization (“Roe effect”) with crime drop in the 1990s, especially in black communities.

  • Ryan points to:

    • Aging population as the bigger factor.
    • Crime began declining before abortion’s numerical peak; other factors (policy, population structure) are at play.
    • Recommends “The Rise and Fall of Violent Crime in America” by Barry Latzer.

  • Quote:

    “Murder is specifically a young man's game. … What he [Latzer] points to is really just an aging of the population.” — Ryan [22:42]

5. Crime in Red-State Cities; Governor Accountability

[25:39 – 29:10]

• Listener Q: Why can’t Republican governors control crime in their own cities?

  • Girdusky argues entrenched Democratic leadership and a culture of ‘giving up’ on certain cities.

  • Believes red-state governors should take a more proactive, even aggressive, stance regardless of local politics.

  • Quote:

    “Republican governors should be taking a more proactive stance. … They're the governor. They're responsible. They should crack down on crime.” — Ryan [28:52]

6. Immigration: The Numbers Dispute

[29:10 – 31:58]

• What is the Real Number of Illegals Allowed under Biden?

  • Disputes on “gotaways,” released, parole program arrivals, and minors.

  • Girdusky synthesizes estimates:

    • 10.8–11M encounters
    • 2M “gotaways”
    • 2.5M released; 1.7M parolees; 500K minors
    • Final conservative consensus: 5–6M have stayed (ref: Goldman Sachs, NYT).

  • Memorable note:

    “You both have bits and pieces of the data. You're more right than she is. But that's the full story. I hope you guys can solve this dispute peacefully. I imagine what a game of Monopoly with your family is like.” — Ryan [31:55]

7. Historical Precedent & VP Succession

[31:58 – 33:56]

• Listener Q: Could VP Harris have won if she took over for Biden? Any precedent?
  • Only historical precedent is Ford for Nixon (post-resignation) and Nixon for Ike (illness)—neither won re-election.
  • “I don't think there's really a scenario where Harris would have won the presidency.” — Ryan [32:47]
  • Also addresses why congestion pricing isn’t a poll tax in NYC.

8. Are the Democrats Dead? The Two-Party System

[33:56 – 37:43]

• Numbers, Not Narratives:
  • “We live in a two-party system … only 37 House seats were decided by less than 5% in 2024. That’s 8.5% of all House seats.” — Ryan [35:08]
  • Economic factors (energy, groceries) sway voters.
  • Democrats’ advantage is high-propensity voters; small shifts change balance.
  • Warns not to underestimate Republican self-sabotage or Democrats' ability to recover.

9. Birth Rates, Western Values, and Demographic Collapse

[37:43 – 43:29]

• Disagreement with Ann Coulter:
  Patrick from Tampa Bay asks: Is a falling birth rate a real crisis?

  • Girdusky says yes, citing catastrophic global examples (Italy, China, Japan, etc).

  • Argues declining populations threaten economic vitality, national security, and social stability.

  • Quote:

    “Having children is probably the most important thing that people could do in this time period to fight the greatest existential threat facing our country. And if you are … an intact nuclear family with Western values, that makes it even better.” — Ryan [41:58]

10. Post-DeSantis Florida GOP Politics

[43:30 – 45:40]

• Inside Baseball:
  • Discusses potential 2026 Florida gubernatorial succession, noting divides between DeSantis and Trump camps, and the lateness of anti-Byron Donalds alternatives emerging.

Notable Quotes

• On Data Manipulation:
  “They manipulate all of this data. They lie. … It is all manipulated data in order to promote to the media … that this is a right wing only problem.” — Ryan [06:48]

• On Census Consequences:
  “Illegal aliens being counted … not only gives Democrats more seats, it really does take away from these red states.” — Ryan [19:20]

• On Crime Causes:
  “What he [Latzer] points to is really just an aging of the population.” — Ryan [22:42]

• On Governors & Crime:
  “Republican governors should be taking a more proactive stance. … They're the governor. They're responsible.” — Ryan [28:52]

• On the Two-Party System:
  “We live in a two-party system … only 37 House seats were decided by less than 5% in 2024.” — Ryan [35:08]

• On Birth Rates Collapse:
  “Having children is probably the most important thing that people could do … to fight the greatest existential threat facing our country.” — Ryan [41:58]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:52] – Manipulation of political violence data
• [10:50] – NYC restaurant recommendations
• [15:01] – Census errors & seat allocation
• [19:45] – Crime decline: abortion vs. aging population
• [25:39] – Crime in red state cities
• [29:10] – Real numbers on immigration under Biden
• [31:58] – VP Harris, succession precedent, congestion pricing
• [33:56] – Are Democrats in political peril?
• [37:43] – Birthrate crisis and Western values
• [43:30] – Post-DeSantis GOP strategy in Florida

Tone & Style

Ryan is candid, detail-oriented, occasionally humorous, and willing to challenge mainstream and even conservative narratives. He mixes data-driven analysis with anecdotes and practical advice, engaging directly with his audience’s concerns and questions.

Conclusion

This AMA episode demonstrates Girdusky’s willingness to name uncomfortable realities and spotlight overlooked numbers in the political and demographic landscape. Listeners leave with a sense of the complexity shaping American politics—from skewed statistics to shifting populations and the inside play between party actors.