It's a Numbers Game: Political Violence Data, Immigration, Census Shifts & America’s Future

Summary

---

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: Political Violence Data, Immigration, Census Shifts & America’s Future
Date: September 18, 2025
Host: Ryan Girdusky (filling in)
Podcast Producer: iHeartPodcasts

---

Overview

On this special “Ask Me Anything” episode, Ryan Girdusky takes over and walks listeners through a range of political, demographic, and social issues shaping America’s future. The focus is on challenging narratives about political violence, analyzing how census data and immigration reform congressional power, and answering audience questions about crime, birth rates, party politics, and more. Girdusky critiques mainstream data sources, highlights shifting trends impacting elections, and mixes his trademark frankness, humor, and insider insight throughout.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Manipulation of Political Violence Data

[02:52 – 07:46]

• Critique of Nonprofit Data:
  Girdusky opens with commentary on how nonprofits like the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) and University of Cincinnati's Prosecution Project manipulate definitions and examples to inflate the prevalence of right-wing violence:

  • Selective Inclusion/Exclusion:

    • Noted omission of high-profile left-wing violence cases by ADL.
    • Inclusion of gang violence with neo-Nazi connections, even when not politically motivated, as right-wing extremism.
    • Exclusion of black nationalist gang crimes as left-wing violence.

  • Over-broad Definitions:

    • Non-violent protests at abortion clinics and small-scale robberies by non-white perpetrators included as examples of “violent right-wing extremism.”

  • Memorable quote:

    “They manipulate all of this data. They lie. … None of these cases exist, let alone BLM, let alone Antifa, let alone the CHAZ. None of it counts.” — Ryan Girdusky [06:48]

2. NYC Food Recommendations (Light Interlude)

[10:50 – 15:00]

• Audience question prompts Girdusky to give his top NYC restaurant tips, from Republican gatherings to Italian and pizza favorites—showcasing his personable side.

• Notable moment:

  “I'm a foodie. I love food. I wish I could lose weight while eating it. … I was very excited to be asked that question.” — Ryan [10:53]

3. Census Errors, Congressional Seats & Demographic Shifts

[15:01 – 19:45]

• Undercounts and Overcounts:

  • Census undercounted in six states (TX, FL, AR, IL, MS, TN), overcounted in others (NY, MA, RI, etc).
  • Correct counting would have shifted House seats more dramatically: TX & FL would have gained three each, CA projected to lose three in 2030.

• Impact of Counting Illegal Aliens:

  • TX and FL would have gained fewer seats; CA would have lost more.
  • “Illegal aliens being counted for the House of Representatives not only gives Democrats more seats, it really does take away from these red states in the Midwest, these red states in more like, you know, deep Southern places.” — Ryan [19:20]

• Looking Forward:
  Demographic shifts could reshape electoral priorities and the viability of campaign strategies.

4. Crime, Abortion, and the ‘Roe Effect’

[19:45 – 25:38]

• Debate Over What Lowered Crime Rates:

  • Sociologists credit abortion legalization (“Roe effect”) with crime drop in the 1990s, especially in black communities.

  • Ryan points to:

    • Aging population as the bigger factor.
    • Crime began declining before abortion’s numerical peak; other factors (policy, population structure) are at play.
    • Recommends “The Rise and Fall of Violent Crime in America” by Barry Latzer.

  • Quote:

    “Murder is specifically a young man's game. … What he [Latzer] points to is really just an aging of the population.” — Ryan [22:42]

5. Crime in Red-State Cities; Governor Accountability

[25:39 – 29:10]

• Listener Q: Why can’t Republican governors control crime in their own cities?

  • Girdusky argues entrenched Democratic leadership and a culture of ‘giving up’ on certain cities.

  • Believes red-state governors should take a more proactive, even aggressive, stance regardless of local politics.

  • Quote:

    “Republican governors should be taking a more proactive stance. … They're the governor. They're responsible. They should crack down on crime.” — Ryan [28:52]

6. Immigration: The Numbers Dispute

[29:10 – 31:58]

• What is the Real Number of Illegals Allowed under Biden?

  • Disputes on “gotaways,” released, parole program arrivals, and minors.

  • Girdusky synthesizes estimates:

    • 10.8–11M encounters
    • 2M “gotaways”
    • 2.5M released; 1.7M parolees; 500K minors
    • Final conservative consensus: 5–6M have stayed (ref: Goldman Sachs, NYT).

  • Memorable note:

    “You both have bits and pieces of the data. You're more right than she is. But that's the full story. I hope you guys can solve this dispute peacefully. I imagine what a game of Monopoly with your family is like.” — Ryan [31:55]

7. Historical Precedent & VP Succession

[31:58 – 33:56]

• Listener Q: Could VP Harris have won if she took over for Biden? Any precedent?
  • Only historical precedent is Ford for Nixon (post-resignation) and Nixon for Ike (illness)—neither won re-election.
  • “I don't think there's really a scenario where Harris would have won the presidency.” — Ryan [32:47]
  • Also addresses why congestion pricing isn’t a poll tax in NYC.

8. Are the Democrats Dead? The Two-Party System

[33:56 – 37:43]

• Numbers, Not Narratives:
  • “We live in a two-party system … only 37 House seats were decided by less than 5% in 2024. That’s 8.5% of all House seats.” — Ryan [35:08]
  • Economic factors (energy, groceries) sway voters.
  • Democrats’ advantage is high-propensity voters; small shifts change balance.
  • Warns not to underestimate Republican self-sabotage or Democrats' ability to recover.

9. Birth Rates, Western Values, and Demographic Collapse

[37:43 – 43:29]

• Disagreement with Ann Coulter:
  Patrick from Tampa Bay asks: Is a falling birth rate a real crisis?

  • Girdusky says yes, citing catastrophic global examples (Italy, China, Japan, etc).

  • Argues declining populations threaten economic vitality, national security, and social stability.

  • Quote:

    “Having children is probably the most important thing that people could do in this time period to fight the greatest existential threat facing our country. And if you are … an intact nuclear family with Western values, that makes it even better.” — Ryan [41:58]

10. Post-DeSantis Florida GOP Politics

[43:30 – 45:40]

• Inside Baseball:
  • Discusses potential 2026 Florida gubernatorial succession, noting divides between DeSantis and Trump camps, and the lateness of anti-Byron Donalds alternatives emerging.

---

Notable Quotes

• On Data Manipulation:
  “They manipulate all of this data. They lie. … It is all manipulated data in order to promote to the media … that this is a right wing only problem.” — Ryan [06:48]

• On Census Consequences:
  “Illegal aliens being counted … not only gives Democrats more seats, it really does take away from these red states.” — Ryan [19:20]

• On Crime Causes:
  “What he [Latzer] points to is really just an aging of the population.” — Ryan [22:42]

• On Governors & Crime:
  “Republican governors should be taking a more proactive stance. … They're the governor. They're responsible.” — Ryan [28:52]

• On the Two-Party System:
  “We live in a two-party system … only 37 House seats were decided by less than 5% in 2024.” — Ryan [35:08]

• On Birth Rates Collapse:
  “Having children is probably the most important thing that people could do … to fight the greatest existential threat facing our country.” — Ryan [41:58]

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:52] – Manipulation of political violence data
• [10:50] – NYC restaurant recommendations
• [15:01] – Census errors & seat allocation
• [19:45] – Crime decline: abortion vs. aging population
• [25:39] – Crime in red state cities
• [29:10] – Real numbers on immigration under Biden
• [31:58] – VP Harris, succession precedent, congestion pricing
• [33:56] – Are Democrats in political peril?
• [37:43] – Birthrate crisis and Western values
• [43:30] – Post-DeSantis GOP strategy in Florida

---

Tone & Style

Ryan is candid, detail-oriented, occasionally humorous, and willing to challenge mainstream and even conservative narratives. He mixes data-driven analysis with anecdotes and practical advice, engaging directly with his audience’s concerns and questions.

---

Conclusion

This AMA episode demonstrates Girdusky’s willingness to name uncomfortable realities and spotlight overlooked numbers in the political and demographic landscape. Listeners leave with a sense of the complexity shaping American politics—from skewed statistics to shifting populations and the inside play between party actors.

---

Transcript

[Chumba Casino Announcer]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[LG XBoom Advertiser]

Stop settling for weak sound. It's time to level up your game and bring the boom. Hit the town with the ultra durable LG X Boom portable speaker and enjoy vibrant sound wherever you go. Elevate your listening experience to new heights because let's be real, your music deserves it. The future of sound is now with LG X Boom and for a limited time save [e-mail] with code Fall25.

[WashablesOfSofas Advertiser]

Bring the Boom XBoom time for a sofa upgrade. Visit WashablesOfAs.com and discover Annabe where designer style meets budget friendly prices. With sofas starting at $699, Annabe brings you the ultimate in furniture innovation with a modular design that allows you to rearrange your space effortlessly. Perfect for both small and large spaces, Anabe is the only machine washable sofa inside and out. Say goodbye to stains and messes with liquid and stain resistant fabrics that that make cleaning easy. Liquid simply slides right off. Designed for custom comfort, our high resilience foam lets you choose between a sink in feel or a supportive memory foam blend. Plus our pet friendly stain resistant fabrics ensure your sofa stays beautiful for years. Don't compromise quality for price. Visit washablesofas.com to upgrade your living space today with no risk returns and a 30 day money back guarantee. Get up to 60% off plus free shipping and free returns. Shop now at washablesofas.com Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions.

[TiVo Plus Advertiser]

Restrictions may apply over 300 channels, zero bills. That's TiVo plus live news, reality movies and more. No credit card, no signups available on smart TVs powered by TiVo. Grab the remote, press play and start watching TiVo plus free binge worthy always on. Learn more at tivo.com Take a deep.

[News Headlines Narrator]

Dive into the stories making the news headlines across the world.

[Emily Maitlis and John Sopel]

The News Agents we're not just here to tell you what's happening, but why? From me, Emily Maitlis and me John Sopel with Global's award winning podcast the News Agents Dropping daily covering everything you need to know about politics and current.

[News Headlines Narrator]

Affairs and the newsagents USA.

[Emily Maitlis and John Sopel]

Listening to the newsagents on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Open your free iHeart app and search the newsagents to start listening.

[Chumba Casino Announcer]

How to have fun anytime, anywhere. Step 1 Go to Chumbacasino.com Chumbacasino.com Got it. Step 2 Collect your welcome bonus Come.

[Chumba Casino Host (Ryan)]

To Papa welcome bonus.

[Chumba Casino Announcer]

Step 3 Play hundreds of casino style games for free.

[Chumba Casino Host (Ryan)]

That's a lot of games, all for free.

[Chumba Casino Announcer]

Step 4 Unleash your excitement.

[WashablesOfSofas Advertiser]

Chumba Casino has been delivering thrills for over a decade, so claim your free welcome bonus now and live the chumba life. Visit chumbacasino.com no purchase necessary VGW Group.

[Legal Disclaimer Announcer]

Void where prohibited by law 21 plus terms and conditions apply.

[Ryan Graduski]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Happy Thursday everybody. I hope that you all enjoy I want to say enjoyed, but found the episode on Monday intriguing and informative on political violence. I have to tell you that I approached that episode thinking that I was going to break down like all the data on political violence over the last 20 years and I got way over my skis and I ended up, I think presenting you guys a lot of information, but I wanted to show you everything and it was just way too much. But I think one thing that I would like to touch on one more time before I go into ask me anything for the episode was really how these nonprofits are manipulating information in order to make you have the opinion that right wing violence is larger than what it is. So I went through the adl, the Anti Defamation Leagues data and the University of Cincinnati's information to see examples that they had of right wing violence. Right? So the ADL which was only looking at homicides did not include Luigi Mangione as a case of left wing violence, which is pretty insane considering it is the one of the largest. They also didn't include the transgender cold Z as I mentioned. They included any case where somebody who had formerly belonged to some kind of neo Nazi or white nationalist prison gang committing any sort of homicidal act post their release as a case of right wing violence. So a New Hampshire man who shot his younger half brother after the half brother had informed the police that he had shot a random house where no one was injured and nobody was killed. He killed that half brother who you know, informed the police. The ADL lists that as a case of right wing extremism. A sex offender with a lengthy criminal record in Texas murdered an 11 year old. He at the time of his arrest had a Nazi swastika tattoo. Once again did not murder her because of a the intentions of promoting some kind of bass right wing conspiracy or some far right agenda. He murdered her because he was a criminal with a who chose to murder a child, but there wasn't a political opinion behind that. Nonetheless, that is considered a case of right wing extremism. According to the adl. ADL infused any case where a person from the Aryan Brotherhood A neo Nazi white supremacist group committed any kind of murder, even among other members of their organization, that had no political bias. There were fights where somebody was accused of being a part of a neo Nazi group who got into a fight with a neighbor and killed the neighbor with a baseball bat, where that was included. Once again, no political bias involved whatsoever. No political opinion being involved whatsoever. Black gangs whose leaders espouse black nationalism were not included, were not thrown into the same thing. And the ADL once again was looking specifically at homicides. The other organization I mentioned, the University of Cincinnati's Prosecution Project by Michael Lowdenthal, they were looking at any crime. And what he put together, which was cited by the Economist, is truly laughable. What he called violent right wing extremism. A woman named Linda Mueller and two friends were arrested for peacefully protesting an abortion clinic in Westchester, Pennsylvania. He called that violent right wing extremism was four men in Dover, New York were arrested for targeting Mexicans and robbing them. The four men were all black. Another woman was named Tiffany Harris, who had long history of mental health issues and petty crimes. She went into a majority Jewish neighborhood and spit at several Jews. She was also a black woman. If I didn't mention that that was considered right wing extremism. They manipulate all of this data. They lie. If you can. If you're old enough where you can, think back to 2015, think back to 2016 when Trump was running and Trump supporters being pelted with eggs. That one woman, I can remember her face being pelted with eggs. Or the. Or the speech in Chicago where right wingers were attacked. None of these cases exist, let alone blm, let alone antifile, let alone the chess. None of it counts. It is all manipulated data in order to promote to the media, promote to Democrats, and promote to liberal hacks in the media that this is a right wing only problem. It is used to manipulate you and you should not believe it. Okay, now for a full ask me anything episode. I had to get off of my chest because the more research I did, the more I was just completely down the rabbit hole and I had to talk about it. Hey, we'll be right back after this.

[LG XBoom Advertiser]

Stop settling for weak sound. It's time to level up your game and bring the boom. Hit the town with the ultra durable LG X Boom portable speaker and enjoy the vibrant sound wherever you go. Elevate your listening experience to new heights because let's be real, your music deserves it. The future of sound is now with LG XBoom. And for a limited time, save [e-mail] with code Fall25 Bring the Boom XBoom.

[WashablesOfSofas Advertiser]

Tired of spills and stains on your sofa? WashablesOfAs.com has your back featuring the Annabe Collection, the only designer sofa that's machine washable inside and out where designer quality meets budget friendly prices. That's right, sofas start at just $699. Enjoy a no risk experience with pet friendly stain resistant and changeable slipcovers made with performance fabrics. Experience cloud like comfort with high resilience foam that's hypoallergenic and never needs fluffing. The sturdy steel frame ensures longevity and the modular pieces can be rearranged anytime. Check out washablesofas.com and get up to 60% off your Anna Bay sofa backed by a 30 day satisfaction guarantee. If you're not absolutely in love, send it back for a full refund. No return, shipping or restocking fees. Every penny back. Upgrade [e-mail] Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[TiVo Plus Advertiser]

Tired of flipping through apps to find something good? Meet TiVo plus your one stop free streaming network. No credit card required. With over 300 free channels you get binge worthy movies from action and comedy to Indian award winners. Plus top TV shows, live news, sports, highlights and family programming all in one place. Watch live or on demand right from your home screen. Free. No signups, no fees, just press play. That's TiVo plus free, binge worthy and always on. Check us [e-mail] take a deep dive.

[News Headlines Narrator]

Into the stories making the news headlines across the world.

[Emily Maitlis and John Sopel]

The News Agents we're not just here to tell you what's happening, but why? From me, Emily Maitlis and me John Sopel with Global's award winning podcast the News Agents Dropping daily covering everything you need to know about politics and current.

[News Headlines Narrator]

Affairs and the newsagents USA listening to.

[Emily Maitlis and John Sopel]

The news agents on America's number one podcast network iHeart. Open your free iHeart app and search the news agents to start listening.

[Chumba Casino Host (Ryan)]

Hello, it is Ryan and I was on a flight the other day playing one of my favorite social spin slot games on chumbac casino.com I looked over at the person sitting next to me and you know what they were doing? They were also playing Chumba Casino. Everybody's loving having fun with it. Chumba Casino is home to hundreds of casino style games that you can play for free anytime, anywhere. So sign up [e-mail] to claim your free welcome bonus. That's chumbacasino.com and live the Chumba Life.

[Legal Disclaimer Announcer]

Sponsored by Chumba Casino. No purchase necessary. VGW group Void where prohibited by law. 21/members and conditions apply.

[Ryan Graduski]

All right, first question. Probably my favorite question I have ever been asked on Ask Me Anything. It comes from Frank. He says, do you have a favorite NYC restaurant or some good recommendations? Listen, Frank, I am a foodie. I love food. I wish I could lose weight while eating it. I. I could go on for days. I'm going to give you some good New York City places to visit. If you're in the neighborhood. If you're in the city and you want some things. These are my favorite things. I'm not endorsed by these people. I wish I was. They want to give me some free food, I will take it. First and foremost, if you want a Republican hangout, go to Beach Cafe on Second Avenue and 70th Street. The food isn't like outstanding, but it's fine. They have a Cobb salad. It's pretty good. Bartenders, great. Love visiting them. I went there before and after being canceled on CNN that day. Second, if you want a good deal for food, there is a place called Patricia. I would go to the Williamsburg Patrizia's on 35th and Broadway in Williamsburg, Brooklyn. There's a $75 prefix menu. It's five courses, bottomless beer, bottomless wine, highly recommend. You won't find a better deal in the city and it's good quality for what you're getting. I would also, if you want a higher price, there's a place called Piccolo Cucina uptown. It's on East 60th Street. It's where my friends from Italy choose to eat Italian food in the city. Their Cacio de Pepe is very authentic to Italy. Love it. Mineta's in Long Island City. Great homemade pasta. Very highly recommend that place. If you want pizza, which is a New York City specialty. Everyone wants to know where's the best pizza. My favorite is if you go down to Coney island and go to Spumoni Gardens. Absolutely fantastic. My mouth is actually watering while thinking of this things. Spavoni Gardens downtown in Coney Island. It's not downhill, but it's in Coney island and they only serve pies and half pies. Really, really, really good. If you're deep into Queens, there's a place called Rockaways on the Rock. Best chicken parm I've ever had in my life. It was spicy chicken parm with sweet pennebaca. Absolutely incredible. I'm going to give three more quick ones because I know it's not a food podcast, but I was very enthralled with this question ox on the Upper east side, it's a French restaurant, great steak fritas, excellent bar. There's a Puerto Rican fish place in Brooklyn called Porto Plata on Arlington Avenue. Sell big containers of food. That's it. More, if you live in New York City and you want something, because it's not really a place you sit and eat, it's a place you take to go. And then lastly, downtown, there's place called Oscar Wilde's on 27th Street. Usually places that try to be too cutesies on the inside and try to be too theme oriented, the food kind of sucks. This is a case where the food's excellent and the vibe is very, very cool. Okay, enough of the food questions. But I had to really, I was very excited to be asked that question. So I'm excited to answer it because it's always politics. So that's. That was a great question. Thank you for that. Second question comes from Carl. Carl, you sent me a lot of questions somewhere north of 25. So I'm going to answer two because that would be. The whole show would be just ask answer Carl's questions. Not that I don't appreciate. I love the questions, but there's a lot. So Carl hit on the question of the census. And I have to say, of all the topics that are constantly sent to me, the census is probably number one. People are always asking about why did the census go wrong? How can we fix the census data from the 2020 census? He says, basically, Carl says, how would the seats be changed, the number of House seats in the US Congress be changed in their allocation of each state, especially if it was done correctly and if illegal aliens weren't counted? I think that's the best way to sum up your question, Carl. So the first question is a little difficult, right? Because I'm going to give you two separate answers. If the number of seats that were counted back in 2020 were done differently, it would look like this. So the census undercounted voters in six states. Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas. And it overcounted voters in Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode island and Utah. Had those states been counted correctly the first time, Texas would have gained three House seats instead of two. Florida would have gained three instead of two. Colorado would have not gained any. Rhode island would have lost one of their two seats, and Minnesota would have also lost one seat. Now we don't know how things are going to shake up ahead of the 2030 census. You know, something could happen that drastically changes the population of a given state. Like if there's a massive hurricane, Katrina style hurricane that makes its way to someplace like South Florida, that could change how many people live there. If California has the big earthquake and San Francisco, you know, falls into the San Andreas Fault or North Dakota, and then it's like the next big business and everyone's making a million dollars there. You never know. Like things could change drastically in the next five years. As of now, forecasters estimate that California is slated to lose three congressional seats, which makes their redistricting that Newsom is doing right now an actual nightmare because it means in five years, Democrats will have six incumbents either having to choose to retire or run against each other. New York is slated to lose two. My best guess is one in Long island and one upstate. Maybe they're going to merge a Long island and Queen seat. Who knows? Oregon, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin and Rhode island are all slated to lose one. Texas and Florida will each gain four. Idaho, Utah and Arizona will each gain one. This is going to be very consequential, not only in the House Representatives, by the way, but this will be consequential for the next, for the presidential elections of the2030s because it means a Republican can. Without winning a single blue wall Midwestern state. Right. You don't need. You'll need Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona. You will not need Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan, which will change our politics a lot. Maybe I'll do a whole episode on that in the future. Now, what would have happened in the 2020 census if illegals were not counted, which was part of your question, According to Pew Research, both Florida and Texas, they would have gained one less seat. So Texas would have gained two and Florida gained one. They would have gained a total of three instead of five. California would have lost two seats instead of only losing one. Alabama, Minnesota and Ohio would have all gained a seat. So illegal aliens being counted for the House of Representatives not only gives Democrats more seats, it really does take away from these red states in the Midwest, these red states in more like, you know, deep Southern places. I have to tell you that I'm asked constantly, like, can they fix the census? Can we redo the census? I think if they could have, they would have. I don't think it's possible. Anyway, thank you for your many, many, many questions, Carl. I hope I answered a few of them and maybe I'll get to another one. In a different Ask me anything. Next question comes from Bennett. He writes, quote, last week you mentioned that crime rates went down after spiking in the 70s, yet you made no mention of the Roe effect. Many sociologists point towards the impact of legalized abortion for lowering violent crime during the period, especially inner city crime. So what Bennett is referring to is this idea that many sociologists have that abortion, especially with the legalization of Roe v. Wade nationwide abortion legalization resulted in many poor, specifically black women aborting their babies. Considering black men are have a higher share of the violent crime than their overall percentage of the population, this is what they're pointing to. Because black men are about 6% of the population. And something like, I don't know, 40%, I don't the exact number top my head. But like something 40 of all violent crime, especially homicide. That is what they are pointing to as the answer to that. The study was published by John Donahue and Stephen Levitt. That's the people, the first two criminologists who sat there and said that this was the reasoning. They wrote, quote, we offer evidence that legalized abortion has contributed significantly to the crime reduction. Crime began to fall roughly 18 years after abortion was legalized. The five states that allow abortion in 1970 experienced declines earlier than the rest of the country which legalized in 1973 with Roe v. Wade. States with high abortion rates in the 1970s and 80s experienced a greater crime reduction in the 90s in higher abortion states, only arrest of those born after abortion legalization fall relative to low abortion states. Legalized abortion appears to account for as much as 50% of the recent crime drop. The argument that they have holds some merit, right? Specifically with the black population. I've done this research before. If the black population of America and the white population were two separate countries, the black population would have a crime rate in the top 15 or top 10 most violent nations in America. And the white crime crime rate would be somewhere around Canada's. However, I think that what is missing from there and what is undercounted from their data is the fact of an aging population. Significantly, the aging of the baby boomers. Right? There were a lot of things happening in the early 90s together, not just 18 years since Roe v. Wade was legalized. That was part of it for sure. That wasn't the entire thing. I don't think it makes sense that while abortion increased in the 1970s, abortion really peaked 1983. That's when about a third of pregnancies resulted in abortion. Abortion actually hit their Highest raw number, 1990. Crime started really coming down not just in the early 90s under Giuliani, which New York City, by the way, had legalized abortion way before Roe. Crime starts coming down in the 90s, I mean, and then it surges back up, but it doesn't it, the drop begins actually much closer to the, to the legalization to Roe being enacted in 1973 than people think. Right. Remember, murder is specifically a young man's game. It is incredibly rare for an older person to become a serial killer, you know, after spending decades with no history of violence. That's what makes the Las Vegas shooting so odd. Abortion hit about 1.5 million in the late 70s. 1.5 million abortions per year, which means that those children would have only been teenagers in the 90s when the murder rate starts collapsing, they're not kind of old enough to be responsible for what would have been higher crime rates. I read a book that I highly recommend on this topic called the Rise and Fall of Violent Crime in America by Barry Latzer. And what he points to is really just an aging of the population. Basically that as baby boomers came of age in the 1960s and 70s, there was this dramatic rise in crime and then it began to fall in the late 80s. Then the crack epidemic and the increased gang violence happens. And there's a lot of activist judges starting to release criminals during that time period, especially in big blue states and big blue cities. But Lassiter says that a mixture of hard on crime laws placed in places like New York City and Los Angeles under their Republican mayors, on top of just an aging population of baby boomers aging and the Gen X being significantly smaller than baby boomers really was responsible for the massive decline in crime. I'm not going to say that abortion played no part, but as abortion rates began substantially declining throughout the 1990s, it did not result in a spike of crime in 2000 and tens. Right. So just because people had less abortions doesn't mean that there was an increase in crime. That's what I believe. I believe abortion a part of it, but it was, I think it was the aging population was a bigger part of it. I highly recommend though, the Rise and Fall of Violent Crime by Barry Latzer, if you're interested in this subject. Okay, let's do a next question on crime, but this time from Kyle. Kyle writes, quote, Kathy Hogel and Gavin Newsom have a point when they say that crime is worse in some major cities in red states than in blue states. That is so true. Places like New Orleans, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Kansas City and Jackson. Republican governors don't need to wait to Trump for Trump to send in the National Guard. Are red state governors so inept that they can't get control of their cities? Thank you, Kyle, for this. And to your point, yeah, look, crime has fallen even in some of the worst areas of our country over the last few decades. So something is happening that is positive. But I'll say this because those cities you mentioned, St. Louis, Jackson, these New Orleans, these cities are, have an either a majority black population or a significant black population. They do not vote for Republicans. They vote for very, very comically corrupt Democratic mayors who are utterly inept in what they do. And I think there is this feeling of being complacent, that the problem is too difficult and that why bother? These people are never going to support us. Why are we, to a point, going to support them? These cities are hellholes. And by the way, no one has ever told me this. This is the feeling I've gotten being in some big red cities with some big Republican politicians about their cities. They kind of just are like, can't do anything about that place. That place is a hellhole. And the truth is that red states have some of these beautiful cities. New Orleans is amazing city. Memphis is an incredible city. But they are allowed to become, you know, unfathomably dangerous, especially for, you know, young families and people who are looking for housing. How much more housing would you have available if some of these cities like Memphis and New Orleans were livable, like where all parts were livable, you'd have so much more housing. But I just think that people sit there and say, you can't fix it. Don't even try. I agree with you 100. They should try. Kansas City is new. Kansas City, New Orleans, Memphis, I've been to all those places. They're beautiful. They've got such life to them. The crime is unimaginable. And Republican governors should be taking a more proactive stance. And even against the well wishes of their Democratic mayors, and even against the well wishes, by the way, of some of the population. They're the governor. They're responsible. They should crack down on crime. Okay, next question comes from David Scott from New Hampshire. He writes that he had an argument with his liberal sister about how many illegal aliens Biden has let into the country during the four years he was in the White House. He said that he, he said, David says that he said there was 10 million and his sister said there was 2.3 million. Can you explain? Okay. First, your sister cited PolitiFact. Never listen to PolitiFact. They are a bias, misleading organization. Secondly, you're both kind of correct, though. You're more right than she is. During Biden's presidency, there were an estimated 10.8 to 11 million encounters at the border with about 2 million known gotaways. On top of that, those are illegal aliens that don't encounter border Patrol but are still believed to have made it within the interior of the United States. That doesn't mean, by the way, though, that that 10 to that 10.8 to 11 million plus 2 million gotaways is the number that was released. The numbers released are much lower. There were about 2.5 million illegal aliens released into the country during Biden's presidency that we are aware of. Right. If you, you have to remember, Biden understood at the end of his presidency that the immigration problem was becoming a stain on his presidency, that it was really dragging his numbers down. So he started cracking down on immigration pretty substantially. And one thing that he did was offer parole programs to illegal aliens to be flown into the country. So they were no longer coming across our southern border. That's why there's this huge dip in the number of southern border encounters. And they were given this CHNV parole program that was about 1.7 million of them, plus about 500,000 unaccompanied minors. When you add all of them together, the 1.7 million, which, by the way, these, like PolitiFact would never include because it was a quote unquote parole program. So they were technically legally here, although they had no rights to be here, aside from the fact that Biden waved his magic wand and Trump unwaved it, and now they're not legally allowed into the country anymore. When you add those 500,000 minors, 1 to 2 million known gotaways, the 1.7 million parolees, and about 2.5 to 3 million illegal aliens. It's overall, it's estimated, according to Goldman Sachs, by about to about 5 million illegal aliens made it into the interior of the country and stayed here. That was also repeated by the New York Times, the Goldman Sachs numbers. The center for Immigration study says it was about 5.4 million. And Migration Policy center says it was about 5.8 million. So 5 to 6 million people came under Biden illegally and stayed, including CHNV, including parolees, including unaccompanied minors. You both have bits and pieces of the data. You're more right than she is. But that's the full story. I Hope you guys can solve this dispute peacefully. I imagine what a game of Monopoly with your family is like. Anyway, we'll be right back with more Ask Me Anything.

[LG XBoom Advertiser]

Stop settling for weak sound. It's time to level up your game and bring the boom. Hit the town with The Ultra Durable LG XBoom Portable speaker and enjoy vibrant sound wherever you go. Elevate your listening experience to new heights because let's be real, your music deserves it. The future of sound is now with LG XBoom and for a limited time, save [e-mail] with code Fall25 Bring the Boom XBoom.

[WashablesOfSofas Advertiser]

Let's be real. Life happens. Kids spill, pets shed and accidents are inevitable. Find a sofa that can keep [e-mail] Starting at just $699, our sofas are fully machine washable inside and out so you can say goodbye to stains and hello to worry free living. Made with liquid and stain resistant fabrics, they're kid proof, pet friendly and built for everyday life. Plus changeable fabric covers let you refresh your sofa whenever you want. Need flexibility? Our modular design lets you rearrange your sofa anytime to fit your space, whether it's a growing family room or a cozy apartment. Plus, they're earth friendly and trusted by over 200,000 happy customers. It's time to upgrade to a stress free mess proof sofa. Visit washablesofas.com today and save that's washable. Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[TiVo Plus Advertiser]

Over 300 channels, zero bills that's TiVo plus curated movies, new series and sports highlights. No credit card, no logins, just TV that gets straight to the good stuff. Grab the remote, press play and start watching TiVo plus free binge worthy always on. Check us [e-mail] Take a deep dive.

[News Headlines Narrator]

Into the stories making the news headlines across the world.

[Emily Maitlis and John Sopel]

The News Agents we're not just here to tell you what's happening, but why? From me, Emily Maitlis and me, John Sopel with Global's award winning podcast the News Agents Dropping daily covering everything you need to know about politics and current.

[News Headlines Narrator]

Affairs and the newsagents USA listening to.

[Emily Maitlis and John Sopel]

The newsagents on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Open your free Iheart app and search the newsagents to start listening.

[Chumba Casino Announcer]

How to have fun anytime, anywhere. Step 1 Go to Chumbacasino.com Chumbacasino.com Got it. Step 2 Collect your welcome bonus Come.

[Chumba Casino Host (Ryan)]

To Papa welcome bonus.

[Chumba Casino Announcer]

Step 3 Play hundreds of casino style games for free.

[Chumba Casino Host (Ryan)]

That's a lot of games all for free.

[Chumba Casino Announcer]

Step 4 Unleash your excitement.

[Chumba Casino Host (Ryan)]

Woohoo.

[WashablesOfSofas Advertiser]

Chumba Casino has been delivering thrills for over a decade, so claim your free welcome bonus now and live the chumba life. Visit chumbacasino.com no purchase necessary VGW Group.

[Legal Disclaimer Announcer]

Void where prohibited by law 21/ terms and conditions apply.

[Ryan Graduski]

Next question comes from Brian. He says he's a big fan of the show and shares with everybody. Brian, seriously, thank you. Thank you to everyone who listens. I really want to grow the show large enough to do live events one day and I need my numbers to keep growing and it really means a lot to me. He asks if there was a do over in the 2024 election and Harris was to take over the presidency for Biden instead of just running in his place would have had a different result. He asked is there any historical precedent for a vice president completing another president's term, barring death or scandal, and then the successful running on their own? Okay, the only time a vice president has taken over for a president when there wasn't a death involved was Gerald Ford for Richard Nixon in 1974. And Richard Nixon, believe it or not, took over the role of presidency, but never the title. Several times during Dwight Eisenhower's presidency. Eisenhower was a very unhealthy president towards the end of his second term. He had a heart attack in 1955, he had a major surgery in 1956, and he had a stroke in 1957. And Richard Nixon took over the responsibility and the role of presidency for several lengthy periods of time. However, in both cases, neither men went on to win the presidency in the following election. Ford lost to Carter in 76 and Nixon to Kennedy in 1960. I don't think that there's a scenario where Harris would have taken over for Biden and then won. Like forward thinking, and he mentions in the email forward thinking like there's no, there's no answer like JD were to take over for Trump, would it result in him having a better chance at winning? Probably not, because then you're just viewed as the accidental president and you still inherit all the positives and negatives from your successor. I don't think there's really a scenario where Harris would have won the presidency given everything else that happened that year from the arrests, the assassination attempt, the, you know, the economy, the border, everything. I just don't think that there's a solution that would have made that that possible. Though if she did take over the presidency, the one thing that would have been slightly humorous is that Trump would have had to redo all of his merchandise from 47th president to 48th anyway. And Brian also asked if there, if poll taxes are viewed as illegal impediments to voting rights, then shouldn't congestion pricing, tolling be as an impediment to New York City? Shouldn't that be illegal as given the rights of the people to exercise, to exercise free assembly? No, not really. And I hate the, I hate the toll, the congestion pricing, so I'm not a fan of it, but no, that's not it. Because the scenario doesn't hold up, Brian, because congestion pricing doesn't block anyone from voting. Given that if you live in the outer boroughs, you vote in the borough you live in. So no one from Queens travels to Manhattan to go vote. Same thing with Staten island or the Bronx or Brooklyn. You don't travel to Manhattan to go vote, so you wouldn't be poll to go vote. And I believe there's a waiver for people who live like right on the line from having to pay it so they wouldn't have to pay it either. There's no one really who would be forbidden from voting in order to do that. And there's other ways of getting to that area. So I don't, I don't like it, but I don't think that argument holds up. But thank you for the question. Okay, let's go to John Atkins, who is a big fan of the podcast. He says, congrats on all your success so far. He says, quote, I'm a little confused by this because we've all heard since Trump's inauguration is how Dems are imploding, hemorrhaging voters, embarrassing themselves left and right and on the wrong side of every 80, 20 issue are in total chaos internally and generally can't do anything right, thank God. So how is it that at the same time they're competitive going into the midterms and even have a decent chance at derailing Trump's agenda by taking the House? How can all this be true at the same time? Are the Democrats dead? Are the Democrats dead? No. First, we live in a two party system. So unlike Europe, unlike Canada, you only have two choices. So if you're fed up with one party, you only have another party to go to. Or you could sit out, but you can't. There's no real alternative third party that has a serious chance of winning in any major race in this country outside of Bernie Sanders and Angus King in two states. And they've caucused The Democrats, you can only pick Democrat or Republican. Secondly, when it comes to the House, the number of swing states we are swing seats rather that we are talking about is very, very small. In the 2024 election, only 37 House seats were decided by less than 5 percentage points. There's 8.5% of all House seats. So when we're talking about such few seats being really competitive and the margin in the House as far as who runs the majority being so tight, it can easily swing between both parties, especially if people are disenfranchised over the economy. I've been saying this last few episodes, the economy is not in great shape. Energy prices are through the roof. Grocery prices are climbing. This is causing concern among voters, especially voters like Latinos, like independents, like young people who swung heavily towards the President and his party. I think that the economy is the major question. And if the media has done a very good job of blaming Trump's tariffs for stuff, I don't think that that's the full answer. I think a lot of these energy costs are coming from these data centers I've seen. I did a whole episode about this, but I think that this is really affecting the way independents and other impressionable people are voting. And also Democrats, by the way, once again, are the are the party of high propensity frequent voters. So not only do they have that working for them, they have the higher likelihood of people who vote in every election showing up in this one. Now, maybe things are changing, maybe especially the death of Charlie Kirk, maybe that is brought people who are less engaged to become more engaged. Maybe they want to be more active. There's a lot of people who are putting applications to start turning point chapters and maybe we'll see something happen in 2026 because of that. Maybe Charlie's last act will be to inspire a million people to be just like him. Who knows, right? But as of right now, Democrats do have that advantage. I am old enough to remember the 2008, the COVID of magazine where it said endangered species. It was a picture of the Republican elephant and they said it was going to be a regional party that was going to lose seats. Things swing back and forth, right? Nothing is permanent. Democrats have taken a lot of bad policy positions on a number of things. And for every Mandani that they have nominated in places like New York, they've also backed a lot of moderates so far. I think that they are trying to really navigate issues like the trans sports issue. They keep saying we don't want to talk about it. It because they don't want to alienate their base. But this is them also saying, we're not going to, you know, embrace it the way that Kamala did. Republicans are kind of the same evolution around gay marriage. And in the 2010 time where they were like, how do we navigate this knowing how the polls are going? Democrats have loads of problems still from the 2024 election. But if the question is, can they win the House, the answer is undeniably yes. It's not that many seats that they need to win. Voters are worried about the economy. And don't undercount the ability of Republicans to both step on their own feet, because they will. Absolutely. You know, if they can, they will. And secondly, they can also become victims of their own success. The border, for example, is not going to be a major issue in the next election. Why? Because Trump solved the problem. Same reason crime is not as big of an issue in New York today as it is in 1993 when Giuliani won, because to a large degree, he solved the problem. We don't have 3,000 murders in New York City anymore. Okay, last question for the episode. This one comes from Patrick from Tampa Bay, Florida, a city that I have never been to, but I would like to visit. Patrick writes, you and Ann Coulter are two of my favorite commentators and you seem to align on most issues, but I've noticed you differ on falling birth rates. You seem to think it's a serious problem, while she thinks it's a bit overblown. I lean towards Ann. I believe that a lower birth rate may not be problematic and actually could be beneficial provided that births occur within stable, self supporting nuclear families that uphold Western values. My primary concern was declining birth rates and its imbalanced age demographics with too high proportion of retired elderly relative to working age population. Are there strategies to mitigate the demographic challenges while maintaining a low birth rate? I would enjoy hearing you and Ann discuss. Hey, Patrick, so let me answer your first question first. In that, yes, Ann and I completely disagree on this issue. I do believe that falling birth rates in around the globe are a problem in this country. It is not as catastrophic as it is internationally. We are not in the worst case scenario. You mentioned wanting Western values and families with Western values to have kids. If you look at some countries like Italy, there are many parts of Italy that have not had a single birth recorded in three years. Italy has lost more than 1 million people since 2018 and that's with record high immigration levels. China, which is not a western country, but it's a major Country, China, when I was growing up, the largest country in the world is losing 2 million people per year. Japan, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Belarus, places like the Eastern Europe, East Asia, all losing people every year. And they are in the midst of a societal collapse. You know, you look at Japan, there are more people over 70 than under 5. That country does not have a future. Right. It's that raises major concerns for their national security, major concerns for their economy and their welfare state. And, you know, Ann thinks that the welfare state and especially Social Security is a Ponzi scheme that we're never going to inherit. And, you know, that's her opinion. But there is no evidence that intact Western families are going to come out prevailing even as nations with higher levels of religiosity, like Poland, for example. Poland has a high church attendance relative to Europe, high belief in God, had immensely low birth rates, incredibly low birth rates. Even Muslim majority nations have slipped below replacement levels. Even parts of Africa have slipped below replacement levels. But over the next decade, you're going to see places have extreme societal collapse throughout Europe, throughout East Asia, and then have declining populations throughout Latin America. Africa is going to hold on the longest, but they're going to see declines as well. And a big question is, what happens to our own workforce when China is a net importer of workers, when India is a net importer of workers, when all of Europe is a net importer of workers. It's not just people to pay taxes for the welfare. It's who cleans the restaurants, who powers the machines, who invents the cure for cancer. You know, maybe, maybe generative AI is going to sit there and do all those things, but I don't. I would always bet on humanity. And especially when you look at the concentration of where most of the geniuses of the world who created most of the inventions came from. It's a very small geographical area, them and their descendants, crazy low birth rates. It's not a big bet for humanity. And that's all I could say about that. Having children is probably the most important thing that people could do in this time period to fight the greatest existential threat facing our country. And if you are, if you're an intact nuclear family with Western values, that makes it even better. You also asked, and this is the last question about the post DeSantis political struggle in Florida is DeSantis is run in 2024, creating a retaliation from the Trump campaign. I'm going to say, I know there's still some bad blood between parts of the Trump camp and parts of the desantis camp. I don't know how serious it is between the two men specifically, I'm not privy to that information or never asked. I do know that DeSantis is looking at what his future will be post governorship, and there's a lot of energy right now from the Trump camp to support Byron Donalds. And I will say one thing, I do know for a fact that there's a lot of DeSantis supporters who don't want Byron to be governor. But as is the case in Ohio with Vivek Ramaswamy, there's a lot of people who don't want Vivek to be governor. Time is ticking. The hour is later than people like to imagine the availability to find a nominee who could raise the money, who could generate the attention, who could be an alternative to either Byron or Revec. But in this case, Byron, it's very late. It's very, very, very late. So I don't know if DeSantis has a successor in mind that is not Byron Donalds. I don't know if he's put that much energy or thought into it. But if there is supposedly an anti Byron candidate and they have yet to emerge, they've yet to show their face and the hour is very, very late for them to show up. So anyway, thank you for listening this all Ask Me Anything episode this podcast. I love getting your questions. Please submit them to me. Ryan@NumbersGame Podcast.com that's ryan@NumbersGame Podcast.com if you like this podcast, please subscribe on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts. Wherever you get your podcast and and I will see you guys on Monday.

[LG XBoom Advertiser]

Stop settling for weak sound. It's time to level up your game and bring the boom. Hit the town with the ultra durable LG XBoom portable speaker and enjoy vibrant sound wherever you go. Elevate your listening experience to new heights because let's be real, your music deserves it. The future of sound is now with LG XBoom and for a limited time save [e-mail] with code fall25 bring the.

[WashablesOfSofas Advertiser]

Boom XBoom time for a sofa upgrade. Visit washablesofas.com and discover Annabe where designer style meets budget friendly prices. With sofas starting at $699, Anabe brings you the ultimate in furniture innovation with a modular design that allows you to rearrange your space effortlessly. Perfect for both with small and large spaces. Anime is the only machine washable sofa inside and out. Say goodbye to stains and messes with liquid and stain resistant fabrics that make cleaning easy. Liquid simply slides right off. Designed for custom comfort, our high resilience foam lets you choose between a sink and feel or a supportive memory foam blend. Plus our pet friendly stain resistant fabrics ensure your sofa stays beautiful for years. Don't compromise quality. Quality for price visit washablesofas.com to upgrade your living space today with no risk returns and a 30 day money back guarantee. Get up to 60 off plus free shipping and free returns. Shop now at washablesofas.com Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[TiVo Plus Advertiser]

Over 300 channels, zero bills that's TiVo plus live news, reality movies and more. No credit card, no signups available on smart TVs powered by TiVo. Grab the remote, press play and start watching TiVo plus free binge worthy always on. Learn more at tivo.com Take a deep.

[News Headlines Narrator]

Dive into the stories making the news headlines across the world.

[Emily Maitlis and John Sopel]

The News Agents we're not just here to tell you what's happening, but why. From me, Emily Maitlis and me, John Sopel with Global's award winning podcast the News Agents Dropping daily covering everything you need to know about politics and current.

[News Headlines Narrator]

Affairs and The News Agents USA.

[Emily Maitlis and John Sopel]

Listening to the News Agents on America's number one podcast network. I heart open your free iHeart app and search the News Agents to start listening.

[Godfather Slot Advertiser]

Step into the world of power, loyalty and luck. I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse with family. Canolies and spins mean everything. Now you want to get mixed up in the family business. Introducing the [e-mail] test your luck in the shadowy world of the Godfather slot. Someday I will call upon you to do a service for me. Play the Godfather [e-mail] Welcome to the family.

[Legal Disclaimer Announcer]

No purchase necessary. VGW Group Void. We're prohibited by law 21 + terms and conditions apply.

[Chumba Casino Announcer]

This is an I Heart Podcast.