It's a Numbers Game: The Cost of Running for Office with Luke Thompson

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode Title: It's a Numbers Game: The Cost of Running for Office with Luke Thompson
Release Date: February 24, 2025
Host: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
Guest: Luke Thompson, Political Operative
Produced by: Premiere Networks

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Introduction

In this episode titled "It's a Numbers Game: The Cost of Running for Office," Clay Travis and Buck Sexton delve into the intricate and financially demanding world of political campaigns. Joined by political operative Luke Thompson, the hosts unpack the significant monetary investments required to run for public office, offering listeners an in-depth understanding of the fundraising landscape, strategic campaigning, and the personal toll it takes on candidates and their families.

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Guest Introduction: Luke Thompson

[12:24]
Ryan Graduski: "Luke Thompson is one of my closest political operative friends. He has a stellar track record over the last few years working for various super PACs, including those supporting Representative Riley Moore, Representative Brandon Gill, Senator Bernie Marino, Senator Dave McCormick, and he was my boss for the super PAC supporting JD Vance. Luke Thompson, thank you for being here."

Luke Thompson brings a wealth of experience from his extensive work with super PACs and high-profile political figures. His insights stem from years of navigating the complex mechanics of campaign financing and strategy.

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The Cost of Running for Office

[02:34]
Ryan Graduski: "That's what this episode is going to be about—the business side of politics."

Ryan outlines the staggering financial requirements of political campaigns. Drawing from data covering the 2023 and 2024 campaign cycles, he highlights:

• Presidential Campaigns: Raised between $1.6 to $6 billion; spent approximately $1.323 billion.
• Congressional Races: Raised $3.27 billion; spent $2.77 billion.
• Party Committees: Raised $2.1 billion; spent $1.8 billion.
• Super PACs: Raised a colossal $12.25 billion; spent $10.9 billion.

[02:34]
Ryan Graduski: "Candidates and their respective committees and PACs running for federal office raised $19.25 billion and spent $16.793 billion. Now, that sounds like an insane number, and it is, but it's actually less than American spend on Easter, which is $20.6 billion."

Despite some areas seeing slight decreases in fundraising since 2008, the overall trend indicates a significant and growing financial barrier for aspiring politicians, especially with the rise of super PACs allowing unlimited fundraising.

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Breaking into Politics: Ryan's Journey

[07:24]
Ryan Graduski: "It's about taking chances. I failed a ton of times. I've worked on insane races that we never had a chance, that things, everything that could go wrong, did go wrong."

Ryan shares his personal journey, starting at 19 with the New York City Council and progressing through various campaigns, including working with notable figures like Tom Libis and Michael Bloomberg. His persistence led him to establish the 1776 Project PAC, focusing on school board elections nationwide, demonstrating that strategic effort can pave the way in the political arena.

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Fundraising and Resources: Strategies and Challenges

[17:16]
Ryan Graduski: "If you can't do that or you don't know that many people with that kind of disposable income, the reality is it's going to be really, really hard."

Ryan emphasizes the critical role of fundraising in running for office. For federal positions like Congress, a candidate typically needs to secure around 300 donors each contributing $3,500. Without such substantial financial backing or the ability to leverage personal funds, achieving a competitive edge becomes exceedingly difficult.

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Impact on Candidate's Family: Managing Expectations

[30:37]
Ryan Graduski: "It's really hard. A lot gets demanded of the family because simply absence is a big part of that."

Running for office isn't just a financial burden; it profoundly affects candidates' personal lives. The constant demands of campaigning—long hours, public scrutiny, and extensive travel—can strain family relationships. Ryan advises maintaining open and honest communication with family members to navigate these challenges effectively.

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Consultant's Role: Selecting Candidates and Handling Relationships

[22:48]
Ryan Graduski: "It's important to realize people who work on campaigns don't always go to work for Congress or work in the state legislature for the governor or whatever race you're doing."

Consultants like Ryan and Luke play a pivotal role in shaping successful campaigns. They must discern which candidates possess the dedication, integrity, and strategic mindset necessary to thrive. Building trust and maintaining honest relationships are crucial, as consultants often guide candidates through high-stakes decisions and unforeseen challenges.

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Background Checks and Reputation Management

[35:44]
Luke Thompson: "Background checks don't happen usually for local office. A lot of times they don't happen even for congressional offices."

Luke discusses the varying depths of background checks across different levels of office. While local races seldom undergo rigorous scrutiny, higher offices may attract more detailed opposition research. He advises candidates to proactively manage their online presence and clear any potentially damaging information to safeguard their reputations.

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Polling Insights: Internal vs. Public Polls

[20:20]
Ryan Graduski: "Private polling is better than media polling. Right. In general, it's better because the campaigns are going to spend more, because it's going to guide strategic spending."

Internal polling conducted by campaigns tends to be more strategic, focusing on persuasion and targeted messaging. In contrast, public or media polls aim to gauge general voter sentiment without the nuanced questions campaigns require for strategic decision-making.

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Tactical Advice for Campaign Consultants

[25:49]
Luke Thompson: "You need to be so blunt with them. Be like, no, this is not working out."

When campaigns are faltering, consultants must deliver candid feedback to stakeholders, advising them on the viability of continuing their candidacies. This blunt honesty, while challenging, is essential for making informed decisions that could ultimately determine the success or failure of a campaign.

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Anecdotes and Notable Moments: Crazy Campaign Stories

[49:38]
Ryan Graduski: "Found a dead body in Mississippi once."

Both Ryan and Luke recount unconventional and sometimes bizarre experiences from their campaign careers, illustrating the unpredictable nature of political campaigning. From unexpected encounters with eccentric voters to handling unforeseen crises, these stories highlight the resilience required to navigate the campaign trail.

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Conclusion: Key Takeaways

Running for public office is a formidable endeavor, laden with financial, strategic, and personal challenges. The insights shared by Ryan Graduski and Luke Thompson shed light on the essential elements of successful campaigns:

• Fundraising is Paramount: Securing substantial financial backing is crucial, especially for higher offices.
• Persistence Pays Off: Breaking into politics requires relentless effort and the willingness to take on any role.
• Honest Communication: Maintaining transparency with candidates and their families is vital for navigating the campaign's demands.
• Strategic Polling: Understanding the nuances of internal vs. public polls can inform better campaign strategies.
• Reputation Management: Proactive measures in managing one's public image can prevent potential setbacks.

Ultimately, the episode underscores that while the cost of running for office is undeniably high, strategic planning, dedicated effort, and integrity remain the cornerstones of political success.

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Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Graduski [17:16]: "If you can't do that or you don't know that many people with that kind of disposable income, the reality is it's going to be really, really hard."

• Ryan Graduski [30:37]: "A lot gets demanded of the family because simply absence is a big part of that."

• Ryan Graduski [20:20]: "Private polling is better than media polling. Right. In general, it's better because the campaigns are going to spend more, because it's going to guide strategic spending."

• Luke Thompson [22:48]: "It's important to realize people who work on campaigns don't always go to work for Congress or work in the state legislature for the governor or whatever race you're doing."

---

This comprehensive discussion provides aspiring politicians and those interested in campaign management with valuable insights into the financial and strategic complexities of running for office. By highlighting both the challenges and strategies to overcome them, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of what it truly takes to succeed in the political arena.

Transcript

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[Ryan Graduski]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you for being here this week. As always, I want to remind listeners that all the data on this podcast will be up on my sub stack. You can go read it and go to natpop newsletter.com for free. 30 day free subscription. So this week I would like to talk to you guys about money in politics and politics in general. It's a big conversation that we've had in the country because it costs a lot of money to run for public office. In the 21 months that stretch along 2023, the 2024 campaign cycle, billions of dollars went to the campaigns from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Candidates running for president alone, just the presidency, raised 1.6 to $6 billion and spent 1.323 billion. But that's not all. Canada's ranking for Congress raised $3.27 billion and spent 2.77 billion. Party committees raised 2.1 billion and spent 1.8. And super PACs raised 12.25 billion and spent 10.9 billion altogether. That means candidates and their respected committees and PACs running for federal office raised 19.25 billion and spent $16.793 billion. Now, it sounds like an insane number, and it is, but it's actually less than American spend on easter. American spend $20.6 billion on Easter, but it's still a lot of money. And it's just for federal. It's not including the local races. The governors that happened in 2024, the mayors, the city councils, the school boards, the state legislatures, which are a lot more. But it's still a lot of money and it's only going to go up over time, especially people moving money to super PACs, which are allowed to raise unlimited sums of money. Fundraising for committees actually hasn't gone up so much since 2008. That's when all the candidates running for president in both the primary and the general and third parties raised $1.6 billion as well. Money in politics is very intimidating to a lot of people who want to run for office, even local office. They get scared. It's one of the most frequently asked questions I get from people who are curious about politics or the dream of running for office or just working in this career. People have a lot of opinions about the whole work in politics. Some are fair and some aren't, but they want to know more about the business side of politics. So that's what this episode is going to be about. Now, a little backstory on me. I've worked in politics since 2007. My first job when I was 19 was working for the New York City Council. I worked for a councilwoman who was a friend of a great aunt of mine. She was one of those aunts who thought I was brilliant at everything, even when I wasn't. And the councilman had called her and said that her PR guy had died unexpectedly. And she said, well, you have to hire my 19 year old nephew. He's so great at everything. So thank you, Aunt Susie. That nepotism changed my life. And then I Worked odd jobs on different campaigns. I worked. I ended up being an intern for the New York State Senator, Tom Libis, who was the deputy Minority leader at the time. A wonderful man. I learned a lot from him. Sadly died a couple years ago in prison. But actually, my first two big political mentors both went to jail. It was a very New York story. I worked for as a low level sapper for Michael Bloomberg's third mayoral campaign. I worked for lots of local races. And in 2010, I wanted to get a job working on a race that could really prove myself. And I'd heard a man named Bob Turner wanted to run for office against Anthony Weiner. And so I said to myself, I have to find him. I have to sit there and apply for this job somehow. I didn't have the experience. I didn't know what he even looked like. But I had heard he was going to the New York State Party convention. I told people in the crowd that I knew a little bit. I was like 21, 22 years old at the time. I said, you know, oh, I'm looking for Bob. Do you know where he is? And then one person pointed him out. I approached him cold and I said, my name is Ryan Gusky. I know this district by the back of my hand. I would like to work for your campaign. Sold myself. And within like maybe 30 minutes, he introduced me as his field director for his campaign. So it was very exciting. He didn't end up winning the election, but he did so well. He got over 40% against Anthony Mer, who was an entrenched incumbent in a very Democratic district, that when Anthony Weiner left office, like, you know, a couple months later and there was a special election, Bob was picked as the party nominee, and he was the first Republican outside of Staten island to hold a seat in New York City in several decades. So it was a lot to prove myself and be proud of myself for. But that's like, the nature of politics in this business is a lot of times if you're trying to break into it to work in it, the best case scenario is a major consultant or an elected official will tell you, you're my guy or you're my girl, and they'll take you under their wings. And then you could eventually branch off after. After working them and meeting all their contacts and all the rest of that. That's what happened to, like, the Ruthless Guys. Some of the Ruthless Guys on. On that podcast, they worked for McConnell. Being someone's guy or someone's girl has.

[Luke Thompson]

A lot of benefits the other way.

[Ryan Graduski]

Of coming up is by just working every job possible that is given to you. So after Turner, I did a race for an upstart libertarian named Thomas Massey. I did his super pack, took a break, did media gigs for a couple years. I ended up working for James O'Keefe for a little while, which is a another story for a different time when we're older. I ran the super for Chris Kobach when he ran for Senate by just pitching one of his donors cold. First time I met him, I said, I wanna, I wanna run this guy's super pac. I know you're supporting him. Fund the super PAC and bring me on. And he did. And then through Twitter, I met a guy named J.D. vance. And when the senate seat opened in Ohio in 2021, I text him and I said, if you're running, I wanna be on your team.

[Luke Thompson]

And.

[Ryan Graduski]

And then two years later, I started my own pack for school board elections nationwide. The 1776 Project PAC, which is almost entirely funded by small dollar donors. It's the most successful local government super PAC right now in the country. And that's how I kind of broke into this business. And I say the whole story about my life because working in politics is about taking chances. I failed a ton of times. I've worked on insane races that we never had a chance, that things, everything that could go wrong, did go wrong, where I would have to stay afterwards and clean the bathro and well, I saw all the phones, volunteers made phone calls on. I mean, I did it all. I knocked on doors, I got petitions, every kind of odd job because no one said, ryan, you're my guy. Like that never happened in my entire life. People said, oh, Ryan's the last person here, let's give him a break. I was constantly the last person pick for political dodgeball. But I just kept on going and I still do today. It's just about trying to open a door until someone lets you in. So last week I sent out a tweet and I asked people who don't work in politics what questions they had, what they want to show with the business and what they want to know from consultants about what it's like to run for office, run a race, run a campaign, and if they aspire, run for office one day, what they should do. So I got my smartest consultant friend and we're going to answer them now.

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[Luke Thompson]

Luke Thompson is one of my closest political operative friends. He has a stellar track record of the Last few years working for the super pacs for many people, including Representative Riley Moore, Representative Brandon Gill, Senator Bernie Marino, Senator Dave McCormick, and he was my boss for the super PAC supporting JD Vance. I have to nudge him and say he also worked for Jeb Bush, but. Luke Thompson, thank you for being here.

[Ryan Graduski]

Great to be with you. Ryan. We should get together more often.

[Luke Thompson]

Luke, I don't actually know. What was your first campaign?

[Ryan Graduski]

My first campaign, I was, I want to say, seven years old. It was an attempt to pass a bond issue in my hometown to build a second high school because we had far outgrown the old high school. But we lost. My parents were pro mil levy increase. I think the only tax I've ever seen them be in favor of because literally the students were going to class in trailers in the freezing cold.

[Luke Thompson]

This.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah.

[Luke Thompson]

So you were bred from this like there was no other. There was no second choice.

[Ryan Graduski]

It's in the blood.

[Luke Thompson]

Yeah. Okay. So I took questions from people on social media and I'm going to ask them. We'll just talk back and forth. So the first question we got, which is the most frequent question I got, was how much money does it cost to run for office? Even a local one?

[Ryan Graduski]

Great question.

[Luke Thompson]

Yeah. I'll say this. It cost as much as it does to reach all the voters in your target universe. So if you're running for local office, like city council or school board or even Congress or state representative, you have. Not everyone votes. A small select of people actually go and vote. The bigger the election, the more people vote. But you have to spend as much money as it costs to reach them. The rule I was always taught is you had to touch a voter seven times. That doesn't mean to speak to them seven times. It means to see a mailer, to just see your name in newspaper, to make sure a voter remembers who you. They have to sing your name seven different times.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of rules of thumb out there about this. But I think another way to think about it, too, because a lot of people who ask these questions are thinking about running themselves. I don't know what mental illness takes them over and makes them want to run for office. I'm grateful that it exists because I make my living off of it. But one other way to think about it, too, is how much money do you as a candidate have to put in or be able to put in to be a credible candidate? And you know what's interesting about that is at a certain population level, everybody maxes or should. If you're going to be a serious candidate, maxes out. The one resource that everyone has under a sort of universal communism, which is the clock. Like everybody has the same amount of time per day. Whether or not you use it all for politics or you have a personal life or things like that, those are separate considerations. But you and your opponent, you know, at midnight of a given day, we'll have the same amount of time. And how you use is up to you. However, even at the state legislative level, some state house races in smaller states, you can just out hustle your opponent right in a lot of places. Once you're even at the state senate level, it's not possible to simply knock on every single door enough times that everybody in who might vote knows you and has formed an opinion of you. And so that's where money really enters the equation is you have to be able to talk to people by proxy or through surrogate. The most primary surrogate mechanism is media. Lower down, you're typically going to be having volunteers have literature to leave at doors. Sometimes those are the exact same thing that you mail to save money. You're going to want to get some phone banks. You might want to get an office space or even in a co working space. You might want to have a spot to drop things or a, you know, a storage unit. As you get higher and higher up, you know, say you want to run for Congress. Now you're talking about you will have a full time staffer or several full time staffers depending on the district you will need. You may use your family car for everything. You may want to lease a car for the term of your race because you're not going to be the only person driving it probably. Or in fact, ideally you won't be driving at all because you'll be on the phone calling who, donors mostly. The sort of rule of thumb that I have for people as they think about running for congressional district, right? Assume it's an open seat. Assume it's set aside whether or not from a party standpoint you can win. What I say is go home, go through your phone book, go through your email, go through your classmates, etc. Make a list of people who, if they give you the maximum, that you can donate $3,500. Right where you can get, that's for Congress or any federal office actually, where you can get 300 of those people. Because the reality is is you're going to think you're going to close. Oh, I'll close 90, 90% of them. You're going to be lucky if you can close 25%.

[Luke Thompson]

Right?

[Ryan Graduski]

Right. And so you need to have a list of 300 people who you feel high degrees of confidence, not 100%, but 75% or better. They'll cut you a $3,500 check. If you can't do that or you don't know that many people with that kind of disposable income. The reality is it's going to be really, really hard. Now, you can compensate for that by putting your personal means in play. But now you're talking about, well, how much do I want to spend? How liquid am I? What percentage of that liquidity do I want to spend? I have two kids, my kids, I would like to go to nice school someday. And so, you know, I got to pay for that. Also, they might need braces. Gotta pay for that too. Right. And so, you know, those are the kinds of ways people should think about this and have really hard conversations. Because if you can't raise from your network a solid doesn't have to be mid six figures, but a solid six figure chunk. Right. You know, quarter million dollars between what you know of people you call, or if you're not able to cut a check that's bigger than that, you're really going to have a hard time hitting this sort of level of seriousness that's necessary. Now, the good news is, as you go through politics, you will meet people and they will be, you'll be connected, some of those people with donors, some will be affected, interest groups, et cetera. And so you can start knocking doors and work your way up. Riley Moore, friend and client of mine who you mentioned. You know, I ran his congressional campaign this cycle. The first thing I did for Riley, we were friends before he entered politics in 2016. He sent me an email saying, hey, I want to run for House of Delegates in West Virginia. I've got, you know, there's going to be 5,000 voters. Here's the voter file. Can you tell me which doors to knock on and which phone numbers to call? Did a little bit of math and sent it back to him. He worked that list like crazy. And it wasn't a money question that got him that election. He won it by about 150 votes. I think maybe misremembering it may have been a little bigger than that, but, you know, it's not a huge margin and it was a hustle margin. Right now he's a member of House leadership as a freshman, so you can build it on a foundation of hard work, but it's a building block over time.

[Luke Thompson]

And you can. I mean money. When Luke was talking about money, that's for federal levels, for local elections. You can get by on less money. It's not necessary. You can do the hard work. I remember I did a race for state assembly from a guy, his name is the Mattis. Very, very nice guy, very wealthy guy, would not put the work in. He only wanted to work on Sundays because he didn't want to spend any time with his business. This man could so sell snowballs and snowstorms, but I couldn't get in front of DOT or voters ever. And we ended up losing. He did extremely well, shockingly well. But he just, he just. Putting the man hours in for a local office is super essential. So, okay, how does a candidate feed their families while running for office? Do they love a savings or they spend campaign dollars as a substitute?

[Ryan Graduski]

So it's really hard. I would like a political culture that would sort of. I hate this word, but normalize people paying a salary out of the campaign. Because I think if you're a donor to a campaign, you should want the candidate to be working at that full time, not distracted by a job. Right, right. On the flip side, donors get really unhappy about you paying yourself a nominal salary out of your campaign for federal races. It's completely legal. You know, it's. I think, I don't know exactly what the amount is. You have to disclose it. Most people don't do it because they feel like the political blowback is going to be worse than the upside.

[Luke Thompson]

And so most people you can pay for like meals. If your team is going up for McDonald's or something, you can pay for that at a campaign. Funds or gas.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. Nobody's going to be mad if they see some meals and some gasoline. Now people will. To be clear, this is also where danger lies because you'll see especially bad candidates will over itemize things. Right. So it just makes their compliance really hard and it winds up costing them more to sort their compliance than it would to just eat the light bulbs of for $3 that they paid for. Right. The flip side also is you will see people who will do things like buy gas cards and all of a sudden they're kind of using the campaign as petty cash. And that's where you can get in real trouble.

[Luke Thompson]

Okay, this is a great consulting question. How do consultants have the good judgment to know who to work for? Who will be a strong candidate running for office? Right.

[Ryan Graduski]

Reasons.

[Luke Thompson]

Or who is an egomaniac? Who you won't follow your Advice. I have worked for many an egomaniac that will not follow my own advice. I've ever, I only ever quit one campaign my whole life from a state senator who was out of control and like abuse to the staff. As far as like a good judgment. When you're for a lot of consultants, it's about who's going to hire you. Right. Because it's, it is a. You only are ever really working for two years if you're working on just campaigns. It's important to realize people who work on campaigns don't always go to work for congress or work in the state legislature for the governor or whatever race you're doing. It happens a lot. But a lot of people like Luke and I work for campaigns. We just do campaigns year after year after year. So that if that's your life, just the campaign hustle, you're always both looking for new work while doing work with the expectation that your job is only a year to two years long.

[Ryan Graduski]

I mean, that's, that's why I do so many super PACs, is so that I don't have to deal with Canada.

[Luke Thompson]

Right. That is true. When you work for superac, you have a lot less anxiety moments. Yeah.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. Well, there's the anxiety is more donor related. Are they going to give? They're not going to give. I know they promise they won't come through. No, I. Look, it's a really hard question. And the reality is when you're starting out in this business, you just have to hustle for everything, right? And you can wind up working with some real freaks and some real losers. And the trick is not to get stuck there. And that requires a kind of, I think, moral discipline to say, yes, I know John Smith sucks. I know he's not going to win and thank God he's not going to win. But damn it, the John Smith for, you know, selectman campaign is going to be the best damn selectman campaign anyone's ever seen. And in my experience, you know, when you do a good campaign, people will notice. Not always, but sometimes they will notice. And you know, so. So you can. A campaign can transcend its candidate. The other thing you can do is just, you know, do what I do and convince your friends to run for office. Um, you know, they do.

[Luke Thompson]

I have to, Luke. No, not really. Okay. I guess I have to run.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, well, it's. This is the bait and switch I pull as I spend years convincing them they should run for office. And when they finally sit down with me and they're like, I'M ready to have the talk. The first thing I said is you don't want to run for office. It's stupid. Why do you want to run for office? You have a great life. Your life is good. Your spouse likes you, you're doing well in business, you see your children every day. What are you out of your mind? What do you want to run a, like, low grade fever for the next 15 months? Like, you want to hear the same joke 55 times? You want to tell it 500?

[Luke Thompson]

You have to sell the same joke 50 times.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah.

[Luke Thompson]

You have to tell the same exact story.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, yeah. But, but no, I, I think, you know, one thing to keep in mind, and this is especially true, I think, is the millennial population boom enters into sort of middle age. There's no definition of who a candidate is or what a candidate looks like. The barriers to entry that I enumerated are very real. Right. To be clear, they're very real. On the other hand, they're not fatal. Right. They can be overcome if you're strategic. And so, you know, go out and meet people, meet people who volunteer, meet people who knock on doors, assess whether you think they're good people, whether they're smart people, whether they're thoughtful people, whether they're hardworking and honest people. You know, politics could be a business with a fair amount of deceit in it, but both within a legislature and I think within a campaign, honesty is the currency that you have above all else. And as long as you have an honest relationship with your client as a consultant, and as long as you instill in your client that, especially if going into a legislature, you cannot lie to your colleagues because they will never trust you and never forgive you and isolate you and make you miserable.

[Luke Thompson]

Want to name any names or should I?

[Ryan Graduski]

Nope.

[Luke Thompson]

Show blind.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, I'll use an affirmative example. When our mutual friend Vice President Vance was then baby Senator Vance, he went into the Senate as something of a hotshot, well known entity, conservative firebrand, et cetera. But his attitude towards the Senate, we talked about this a lot, was like, I'm going to be straight with people. I know they disagree with me on several issues, but I'm just going to act with complete integrity. And I understand some people are going to be sneaky around me, but my colleagues will see that, they'll see that I act with integrity and they will trust me. And down the line that will pay off. And he was able to build relationships with people who were not ideologically akin to him. Right. Susan Collins is a great example of this they don't agree on a lot. There are a lot of issues where they go back and forth, but they were always very straight with each other. He really admired the way that she operated and the way that she was very upfront and told people where she was on things and learned a lot from her, conveyed his gratitude to her for that. And as a result, you know, here in this confirmation fight, when he sat down and talked to her about certain nominees that carried a lot of weight because she knew he wasn't lying.

[Luke Thompson]

All right, that's a great example. Or you could be a senator from many senators who they copy their colleagues bills, they reintroduce them for themselves to claim credit for it so they can get hits on right wing media. Then they just write books endlessly and toward the books until they do some other job. Like for a complete random example, become the president of the University of Florida or something. I don't know, who knows? But yeah, allegedly. This is a great question to follow up. Last one, how do you convince a good person to run for office? And can you dissuade a bad person who shouldn't be running for office? So I'll say for the bad people, I'll say sometimes the party bosses or the powers that be or major donors can sit there and they could say to them, we use, they use a carrot and say, listen, if you, you know, maybe you could run for a party delegate, maybe you could have this position, maybe you have that position but don't run for the office you want to run for. Or they could use a stick and say if you do this, we're going to spend a gajillion dollars against you and ruin you. So don't do it. Like they could do people do that? Can consultants do that? Not really. Not so much. I mean, I've never seen it personally where a consultant can like just bully somebody out of running for office.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, it's really hard. I mean, I think in general though, this is really asking the same question, which is how do you motivate people in relation to public office? And the reality is that everybody who thinks about running for office is ambitious, right? They don't do this because they don't want to win. And I think we have a culture that treats ambition as a crime and that's foolish. They're ambitious, right? I mean, there's not a single person who pulls papers for state legislator that doesn't think in some dark moment in the back of his or her mind about the Oval Office. Like they just, it's okay. No, it's okay. Like, it's 100.

[Luke Thompson]

The truth, though, everyone. If you're running for, like, dog catcher, you're thinking, I could be president.

[Ryan Graduski]

You know, I'm, I'm, I'm three pit bulls away from state selectman and from selectman, then I'm going to run for that state senate district. I'm going to jump over the lower house entirely. And once I'm in the same Senate, State senate, Annie, bar the door, because I'm going this rocket ship.

[Luke Thompson]

Yeah, it's true.

[Ryan Graduski]

And you know what? Good. Good. Right? I mean, the framers of the Constitution, the founders of this country, were utterly unabashed about their desire for virtuous fame. Right? For earned fame. And they talk about it in speeches, in their private writings and their correspondence, et cetera. The desire for ambition, the ambition for office. Prominence, esteem, leadership, power. Fine. The hedonic treadmill is a universal. And so don't go around looking for someone and saying, well, I don't like this person because he's ambitious, but I do like this person because she doesn't seem like she wants the office.

[Luke Thompson]

Right.

[Ryan Graduski]

Right.

[Luke Thompson]

Now, usually they very rarely win if they don't really want.

[Ryan Graduski]

Right. Either you're misreading her and she's really actually quite ambitious, or like, she's just not going to put in time. And that's fine. Right? Like. But don't try to dragoon somebody into something they don't really want to do, because the reality is they're going to put themselves and their family and sometimes you, through hell, but not nearly as much as you will be putting them through hell. Now, they're also the principal, they're the candidate. And so it's to them redounds the benefit, redounds the fame and the power, etc. You are a staff player. You're a bit player. You are support. And don't ever forget that.

[Luke Thompson]

That is so true.

[Ryan Graduski]

Don't ever.

[Luke Thompson]

Consultants should never be more popular than their candidates they work for. What is the impact on a candidate's family and what should they expect and how should they prepare for it?

[Ryan Graduski]

It's really hard. Yeah, yeah, it's a great question. It's really hard. So a lot gets demanded of the family because simply absence is a big part of that. Right? I mean, winter, prime campaigning times, weekends when you might be, you know, going to games, you know, summer, fall, summer, while people are communications.

[Luke Thompson]

You're missing out.

[Ryan Graduski]

Exactly. So, you know, one thing is to be very clear with your family upfront, like hey, look, this is, this is going to cost us things and have frank conversations as a consultant. Also, you need to build a trusting relationship with the spouse. All right? Like, the spouse is never the problem. And if the spouse is the problem, you need to get out of that campaign because it's dysfunctional.

[Luke Thompson]

That's a good point.

[Ryan Graduski]

But in a situation where you can't just be like, oh, he's being unreasonable, or, oh, she's being unrealistic, like, you're asking way more of the spouse than is reasonable to ask of anyone, even if you're running for, like, state legislature, if you're having spouse problems, it's because you failed to manage expectations or you failed to execute. Now, that's not a huge issue. Just learn and get better and think about it in that way. The best way to think about that is the same way you think about a candidate. What are the motivations and what are the aspirations? Right.

[Luke Thompson]

And that's when you go into a marriage. And I was thinking about, like, is this person you should know? Like, oh, my spouse is going to do something someday and I have to be prepared for it.

[Ryan Graduski]

Correct, Correct.

[Luke Thompson]

If they have that fire in them, it's probably never going to go away.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. And look, like I ask every client I work with, like, have you had the talk where, where is Mrs. Or Mr. X on this? And if, if Mr. And Mrs. X is not all in, then I, I tell them, you really shouldn't do this. You know, I, I know people who fresh off a divorce, want to run for office because it's like, I got to get some purpose back in my life. And it's like, well, that's try therapy in church because this is not a spiritual hospital.

You're listening to it's the Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. We'll be right back after this message.

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[Luke Thompson]

How in depth are background checks and when you want to run and they bring in a consultant for background checks. Okay, so background checks don't happen usually for local office. A lot of times they don't happen even for congressional offices. Remember, George Santos won his election without anyone knowing anything. And well, most people don't know anything. No one picked up on it. He could have been picked up on it. Luke made a face. I mean that's what. Yeah, and but George Sanders had a million red flags flopping in the wind. The size that you would see a flag, you would see a car dealership in like Midwest. That's how big the flags were. And they were not picked up until until the. Until, like, the New York Times brought it up, trying to write a puff piece about him and saying, oh, well, nothing he says makes sense. So for a local office, very rarely to ever being picked up, Maybe if you're, like, running for mayor or something like that, but very rarely higher office, it happens more. I mean, there are people. It is very expensive to do big background checks on people, but there are people who do it. It costs a lot of money.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. There are degrees of vulnerability study. Right. You should pay somebody to run a LexisNexis whack on you and just run your name and addresses through LexisNexis.

[Luke Thompson]

Yeah.

[Ryan Graduski]

Because that's not that expensive. And that will. That's 85% of what most opposition research is going to look like.

[Luke Thompson]

And yeah, for God's sakes, by the way, clear your social media history. Clear it. I don't care what it is. Download every picture for your Facebook that you want to keep and wipe it clean. Wipe everything clean. The amount of candidates who lose because they were insane on social media 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 years ago is daunting, and it's absurd. Clear your social media.

[Ryan Graduski]

Ryan, are you admitting that you have a nude Africa account to it?

[Luke Thompson]

Yeah, exactly. Right. Yeah.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, the other thing that's valuable here, too, is, you know, a lot of times people don't understand what opposition research is. They think, oh, opposition research. It's going to be a PI going through my trash to see if I'm cheating on my wife. Look, if you're running in a competitive frontline Senate district, yes. Someone's going to ruffle your trash. Probably, but maybe not. Right? The reality is that most opposition research surfaces tendentious things that can be spun a certain way. Oh, you had a boundary dispute with your neighbor. Very normal thing. Right. We weren't sure where the liens were. We couldn't figure it out. We wound up going to court. Right. In 2014, when I was at the NRC, we spent millions of dollars convincing Iowans, which was pretty easy to do because it was true that Bruce Braley, then a congressman running for Senate against Joni Ernst, was an asshole because he sued his neighbor over some chickens. Right? Now, Bruce Braley, if you ask him, like, hey, are you an asshole? He's gonna say, no, I'm not an asshole. Okay? But you run Alexis search on him and you go, sued your neighbor over some chickens, huh? Oh, that's gonna leave a mark. I can write that out. Right. And so it's often really pedestrian things that you wouldn't think about. Right. Oh, I had somebody file a complaint against my. Insert small business over insert totally normal thing. We disputed it, it went away, et cetera. Right. Oh, you know, pregnant lady in car accident left hung out to dry by candidate Y. Again on the merits, you can win these things a lot. And in some cases, as I've done in a few races, you can get takedown orders if they try to put it on broadcast tv but like you want to know what those are so you can pre buck them. And you know, sometimes these things happen live and on the fly and you can't anticipate what they're going to be because they're just crazy. You know the, like the Ohio Senate primary. Yeah. I was working for Bernie Moreno super PAC and like one of our opponents was shopping this story that he had an adult Friend finder account that was like obviously a prank and obviously had never been used. They shopped it and shopped it and shopped it and like I'm sure they were doing this on the campaign side as well. I was on the super PAC side. We were killing it over and over and over again. And then a week before election day, the Associated Press runs the story with glaring factual errors in it. Like glaring factual errors. But they just run the story. And like we were, you know, we were prepared. We were, we retaliated, we took it down. We found the guy who built the initial database infrastructure for Doll Friend Finder and he was just like, yeah, iPhones didn't exist in 2006, you idiots. Like this isn't geolocated. This is just a lat long lookup table which we could tell and we sort of had that ready to go. But we needed an authority to rebut the AP story because the AP had run this thing and put it in print, which was insane.

[Luke Thompson]

Yeah.

[Ryan Graduski]

Anyway, all this is a long winded way of saying like there's some stuff that's just going to happen now.

[Luke Thompson]

It's not, it's not as in depth, especially for local offices. You would think, I think that right now that's mostly a movie version of what running for office.

[Ryan Graduski]

Like now if you are addicted to drugs, if you have a gambling habit and like 18 extramarital relationships going on or really any extramarital relationships going on. First of all, you have don't have the time to run for office. You are already over committed. But like just don't, don't. All right? This is not the place to work your out. Okay. It's just not like America will be Fine. We don't need you in this capacity.

[Luke Thompson]

Some men would rather run for office than get therapy.

[Ryan Graduski]

Many such cases.

[Luke Thompson]

Okay, I'm gonna ask three more questions really quick because I know it's been a while. So first, how much better is internal polling compared to public polling? And do the campaigns know a lot more than the news organizations? So I will say this one it's not about because a lot of people do public polls, also do internal polls. It is not a matter of necessarily that they know more. It's kind of what kind of polls are they doing? Is it a mixture of text message and phone calls? Is a live call or is it just Internet? It's really about the polling organization than necessarily who does it. Tony Fabrizio, who did President Trump's polls, and he did J.D. vance's U.S. senate polls. He also does polls for the Wall Street Journal. They don't look very much different than each other. He's not trying to hoax the Wall Street Journal because he's given the good stuff over to President Trump. It's also what kind of questions that they ask. Campaigns will ask different types of questions. They'll ask persuasion questions like, hey, if I talk about this, or opponent is if no, my opponent believes this, how will it sway the election? Journalists are. News organizations are not going to ask those same type of questions. It was a different style of questioning that they're going to ask.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, I mean, news as a general proposition, all things being equal, private polling is better than media polling. Right. In general, it's better because the campaigns are going to spend more, because it's going to guide strategic spending. They're also going to be better because they're going to be better because most.

[Luke Thompson]

News organizations, by the way, do not pay for any polling. I've learned that they. It's free. It's basically publicity for the pollster. Some do, some do not, Most do not.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, the, you know, just media is interested in election anticipation polling. That's their goal. They want to know who's popular, who's unpopular, how happy are people with the country, what's the ballot going to look like? Right. It's if. If the election were held today. That's what they care about. You know, when we're writing polls for a campaign, we're thinking about our ad budget and we're thinking about what segments of the electorate do we need to work on, what messages work with those people? What are the aspects of us that we're not hitting on? What are issues that are really important and are we Messaging on them effectively, where are we getting bounced by our opponent, et cetera, et cetera. And, you know, especially in primaries where structural factors don't matter as much and strategy is more important. Sorry, it's just the truth. You can start to see, okay, which parts of the party and ideological tendencies or demographic tendencies are moving with which person who's really vulnerable, et cetera. I'll use another example from the Ohio Senate race. Frank Larose, who I like. I've got a good relationship with Frank. This is not a personal thing. This is a professional thing. Frank was running against my client, and Frank had traditionally been. If you had done a poll on which parts of the party he was most popular with, it would have been more moderates versus very conservative voters. Recognizing that this was going to be a problem in a Republican primary, he undertook projects to Bolst his conservative bonus fides. Totally normal candidate behavior. That's not cynical. That's politics. It's the smart, right thing to do. And it helped. He drove up his fave on fave with very conservative voters. It damaged him with his previous base of voters because they were like, oh, this isn't the guy I thought it was. Maybe I'm not such a big fan of. And I saw this in the polling over time as I looked at where Frank was doing with tendencies, and I knew that I had some messaging that would really undercut his stance with social conservatives. I had. I had. From the research and et cetera, I had put together all this stuff, and essentially what. What I found was that he was out on a limb that I could cut off behind it, and that's not me. You know, the ballot on any of those polls and even the fav. Unfaves, they weren't actually useful to me in and of themselves. It was only who's he most popular with, who's he least popular with, how did these issues resonate, et cetera? And so it was about putting together the combination of. If every campaign is a question of time, territory and resource, right. I had a pretty good sense of what my resource was from money. I need to know what my ideological resource was or what my ideological territory was. And then timing was just a matter of getting close to election.

[Luke Thompson]

At what point do you tell your candidates, quote, homie, shit is bad. That was one of my questions. So it's a great question. So, like, first of all, you need to be bluntly honest with your. With your clients, like in a very, very un. Normal. Not a normal way that you would do, like your friends. I Had a client one time who I was being very polite to, and I was like, you need to go before we take pictures to use everywhere. You need to get your teeth cleaned because your teeth are orange. Like, I can't emphasize enough. You need, like, you need to be so blunt with them. Be like, no, this is not. This is not working out. Like, you need to do something with yourself. When the race is coming down to the wire and you just sit there and say something, you know, if it's a matter of winning and losing, if you also have to know your client, if your client is just delusional. And I've had a few of them, and you're like, look, you're not living in the world that I'm living in. So if you're having a good time, you're having a good time, but there are people that you can sit there and say, you know, that you're like, you know, it's a serious win or lost thing. You need to sit there and say, you need to A, invest more money or B, stop investing money because there's no amount of money to go out of this hole. Like, you need to be out there to protect them. And that's crucial. Perfect example from history was like Susie Wiles in 2016 telling Donald Trump, I think she needed like a million or 10 million more. I think it's $10 million to win Florida for him. She's like, I need 10 million more dollars cash from you right now. And he screamed and he cursed. This is in political news organizations, but Susie Wilde had a track record for winning this election. She knew she could do it, but it was bluntly honest. And he cut her the check and she. She helped win Florida in 2016. Not by less than a point. So it's a matter of really knowing, knowing yourself where the state of the race is and then being confident with your relationship with your client. And listen, they could fire you is the worst they could do. But you. That's like, that is. That's really where it is to know, understand where they are. And. And there are some delusional clients. A lot of them literally lives on nerves all the time. And generally it's the clients who always think they're going to lose or something's terrible. They are the easier ones to deal with and the ones who are confident they're always going to win.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, I mean, I guess two bits of just tactical advice here. One is you should never have the it's bad talk when the client brings it to you. You need to Set the terms of that, decide when it's going to happen. And you need to say, hey, we need to have conversations. Because if they bring it to you, they're just going to be spun up and like, they won't trust you. They won't feel like they will be like, wait, wait, you knew this and you didn't bring it to me. So if you think that, hey, things are bad, get it on the calendar and get it on the calendar fast. And you need to bring it to them. Right? Number one. Number two, if you're going to lose by more than 10 and the client doesn't know that, I mean, as long as they're not spending their own money, like you should be blunt with them, but it's not, Obviously you don't want to hurt the family, you don't want them to suffer embarrassment, etc. But you need to have strategic conversations around that sort of thing. If it's going to be a race that's going to be within 10 points either way, then the answer is. And then the answer is twofold. One, you don't actually know if they're going to win or lose. Right? You just don't be honest with yourself. And number two, say to them, look, you could win this or you could lose this. It's close enough that no data that I provide you is going to change your behavior either way. So just act like you're down by five and go bleep, bleep, bleep. Campaign, right?

[Luke Thompson]

Yeah.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah.

[Luke Thompson]

Last question. This is a good one. What is the craziest thing you've ever seen in your consulting career on a campaign?

[Ryan Graduski]

Found a dead body in Mississippi once.

[Luke Thompson]

You found a dead body in Mississippi?

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, I found a dead body.

[Luke Thompson]

Where would you, where, what campaign was that?

[Ryan Graduski]

That was the, it's behind me. It's the Thad Cochran for Mississippi Senate campaign.

[Luke Thompson]

The dead body was behind you. Thad Cochran from Mississippi. Where did you, where did you, where did you stumble on a dead body?

[Ryan Graduski]

It was in a, it was in an ex. Urban neighborhood. I want to say I don't remember where it was vis a vis Jackson.

[Luke Thompson]

Did they still sign the petition to get the can on the ballot during the run?

[Ryan Graduski]

So they were already on the ballot. I, I didn't, I didn't, I called it in. There's a police report.

[Luke Thompson]

I, I did a campaign one time where it was really eccentric guy, very wealthy guy in New Jersey who told one of knocking on doors and kind of more rural New Jersey. And they said, you know, he said, how Can I earn your vote? And this old lady was talking at the door, and she said, you can get rid of the beehive nest on beehive on my roof. And he climbed the roof, was stung a thousand times, and kicked off a beehive. And, like, I mean, was being stung repeatedly. I've done a race in Ohio where a man opened his trunk to put palm. Not palm cards, door signs in it. And it was. There was not hamsters. It was not ferrets. It was ferrets. You know, it was gerbils. It was gerbils. There were gerbils in the trunk of his car. And I said, there. I said, sir, you have gerbils in your car. He said, oh, you should see my garage. They're all over the place. As if that was like, the absolute normal response. I mean, I've. My favorite Luke Thompson story was one time you did a camp. You were at it. You were in West Virginia, western Maryland, and doing a campaign, and you said you were working on the. You were working in the door, and someone started saying a conspiracy theory to you. And then a second person came with an even crazier conspiracy theory where the first conspiracy theorist said, this is too much. This guy's nuts.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, it was in a polling place. I'd had. I'd had somebody who'd gone into details about, like. And I mean details about some chemtrail stuff to me, I mean, details. And then somebody else came by and unloaded, like, a whole other thing, and the chemtrails. Guy looked at me like, that guy's out of here, man. I don't know.

[LifeLock Representative]

I.

[Ryan Graduski]

Once I had a guy answer. Answer a the door, shirtless but packing heat, and his pet rooster ran out and tried to get in my rental.

[Luke Thompson]

That happened once.

[Ryan Graduski]

I have a. I have a toy rooster that the kids working on that campaign got me to commemorate that.

[Luke Thompson]

Yeah. The amount of people who answer the door naked is actually startling.

[Ryan Graduski]

You see some wild. Like, it's the number of people who sit in their chairs, shirtless, eating cereal out of the box, and just migrate directly to the door. In that state of affairs, it's like, very high.

[Luke Thompson]

Luke, thank you so much for being on this podcast. I really appreciate it. Where can people go to find your stuff if they want to see you are. Your Twitter is really funny. It's a lot about Kansas sports.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, I mean, I guess. Lt Thompso on Twitter, no end at the end is the best place to go, right, Ryan? You just gotta throw a retweet on there.

[Luke Thompson]

And then I will 100 do it. I'm just gonna do it for sure.

[Ryan Graduski]

I probably toned it down a little bit as I've gotten older, but you know, there's a few bangers out there.

[Luke Thompson]

Keep it saucy. Yeah. All right, Luke, thank you so much. Thank you for listening. Yeah, thank you everyone for listening. We will be back next week. Please like and subscribe on iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

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