It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind 2028: Is JD Vance Inevitable? Democrats in Disarray & Jeffries’ House Problem

Summary

Podcast Summary: "It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind 2028: Is JD Vance Inevitable? Democrats in Disarray & Jeffries’ House Problem"

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
Host: Ryan Graduski
Date: March 18, 2026
Guest: Mark Halperin

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Overview

In this episode, Ryan Graduski dives deep into the shifting landscapes of American and international politics, focusing primarily on the early jockeying for position in the 2028 presidential race. The episode explores whether J.D. Vance is inevitable as the Republican nominee, the growing disarray within the Democratic Party, and Hakeem Jeffries' shaky hold on House leadership. Guest political analyst Mark Halperin joins to discuss party dynamics, primary calendars, polling, and likely contenders for both parties, offering context, speculation, and insight.

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Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. Opening Commentary: Irish Politics & Culture (03:19–08:45)

• Ryan acknowledges St. Patrick’s Day, shares grievances about Ireland’s current political trajectory, and mourns what he sees as the erosion of Irish identity due to mass immigration.
• Notable Quote:
  • "Ireland is the last country in all of Europe, Western Europe especially, not to have an effective populist party pushing back on immigration."
    —Ryan Graduski (05:38)
• He emphasizes a perceived disconnect between Irish politicians and their cultural heritage.

2. Democratic Party Disarray: The Hakeem Jeffries Problem (08:45–15:00)

• Jeffries’ Struggles:
  • Highlighted Axios reporting indicating growing dissatisfaction in the Democratic caucus about whether Jeffries should continue as Speaker if Democrats win the House.
  • 80 Democratic House candidates have indicated non-commitment to Jeffries for Speaker.
• Party Comparison:
  • “The Democrats are going to act a lot more like the Republicans in the House when it comes to being less orderly.”
    —Ryan Graduski (14:50)
• Democratic Party shows increasing division, especially with the rise of Bernie-aligned progressives.

3. The 2028 Presidential Race: Republican Field (15:00–22:00)

• J.D. Vance’s Supposed Inevitability:
  • Ryan fields constant listener questions about whether Vance is a lock for the GOP nomination.
  • Other likely contenders: Ted Cruz (“thinks he’s got a contract with Jesus Christ to be president one day”), Ron DeSantis, Brian Kemp, Josh Hawley, Rand Paul, and notably Marco Rubio (currently Secretary of State).
• Polling & Endorsements:
  • Polling fluid due to inclusion of non-candidates like Donald Trump Jr.
  • Without Trump’s endorsement, Vance leads by 20-30 points over Rubio, with DeSantis in distant third.
  • Infrastructure and fundraising tilt the odds towards Vance, but an upset remains possible.
• Notable Quote:
  • “If you were a betting man and you're placing your house on the betting markets, you should bet on Vance.”
    —Ryan Graduski (20:55)

4. The 2028 Presidential Race: Democratic Field (22:00–24:14)

• Crowded Field:
  • Listing of candidates: Andy Beshear, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Rahm Emanuel, Josh Green, Kamala Harris, Mark Kelly, Ruben Gallego, Ro Khanna, Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, J.B. Pritzker, Josh Shapiro.
• Primary Calendar Shakeup:
  • South Carolina is now first due to its large Black Democratic voter base, meaning success depends on support from older Black women in the Deep South.
  • Kamala Harris currently leads in national polls among Black voters (36%), but no recent South Carolina polling.
• Notable Quote:
  • “It is almost virtually impossible to win the Democratic nomination without the support of older black women in the Deep South.”
    —Ryan Graduski (23:00)

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In-Depth Analysis: Mark Halperin Interview

Is J.D. Vance Inevitable? (24:16–31:05)

• Halperin’s Reasoning:
  • Previously saw Vance as a lock, now less certain because:
    1. Rise of Rubio: Growing enthusiasm and belief among party elites that Rubio may be a better nominee.
    2. Vance’s Personality: Some donors and stakeholders are “rubbed the wrong way” by his demeanor and his refusal to distance from controversial figures like Tucker Carlson.
    3. Demand for Merit: Sentiment that Vance should have to “earn” the nomination, not have it handed to him.
• Notable Quote:
  • “He’s still the base case... but three things have happened that make him short of inevitable.” —Mark Halperin (24:25)
• Halperin predicts Vance would still “win every element of the invisible primary” if he runs and gets Trump’s endorsement.
• Trump’s view: Enjoys the competition between Vance and Rubio, possibly to “battle-test” the eventual nominee.
• Tucker Carlson issue: Considered a real liability with some donors, especially Jewish donors, as it “haunts” Vance in ways that are “real, not fake anymore.”
• Notable Quote:
  • “Some people see in him a phony and a person without values and without a North Star. And the Tucker stuff plays into that for a lot of people.” —Mark Halperin (29:48)

The Democratic Field and the Primary System (31:05–38:22)

• Rahm Emanuel’s Chances:

  • Halperin is not truly bullish—sees Emanuel as a “long shot,” included mainly due to field weakness and establishment support.

• Progressive vs. Establishment Dilemma:

  • Ryan posits that South Carolina and Deep South Black women are the key constituency.
  • Halperin disagrees with strict demographic targeting, saying most voters now, regardless of progressive or establishment lean, simply want someone to “stand up to Trump” (33:00).

• Weak “Clown Car” Field:

  • No clear progressives actually running to fill the “Bernie” lane.

• Biggest Obstacle:

  • Lack of a strong candidate able to unite the party’s disparate factions.
  • Multiple overlapping identity-based demands: “You hear no women, you hear no Jew, you hear no gay, you hear no non-white. That doesn’t leave a lot of people.”
    —Mark Halperin (36:38)

• Top Democratic Prospects:

  • Halperin lists Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro as “head and shoulders above everyone else,” but doubts Newsom will actually run. Shapiro has “massive flaws,” so Buttigieg, Newsom, or Shapiro are current speculative picks.
  • “Currently the weakest field,” Halperin concludes when comparing 2028 to past cycles.

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Memorable Moments & Quotes

• On Hakeem Jeffries’ leadership troubles:
  “80 candidates running for Congress this year who say they are not committed to backing Jeffries. That is not a small number…”
  —Ryan Graduski (12:13)

• On Vance’s refusal to disavow Tucker Carlson and related groups:
  “The vice president’s attitude seems to be… I’m not going to repudiate people just because people tell me to… would you repudiate, you know, Osama bin Laden?”
  —Mark Halperin (29:48)

• Halperin’s hot take on the Democratic field:
  “But until they prove either they're not running or they're weak, I think it'd be either Newsom or Shapiro.”
  —Mark Halperin (37:20)

• On Democratic base realities:
  “No women, no Jew, no gay, no non-white. That leaves Gavin Newsom and Andy Beshear for the most part.”
  —Mark Halperin (36:38)

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• 03:19 — Ireland, immigration, and cultural commentary
• 08:45 — Democratic Party divisions, Jeffries’ challenges
• 15:00 — Previewing the 2028 Republican field
• 22:00 — Democratic field prospects and the impact of the primary calendar
• 24:14–38:22 — Interview with Mark Halperin (in-depth discussion of 2028 landscape for both parties)
• 41:41 — Ask Me Anything segment: Will the SAVE Act help Republicans?
  • Ryan predicts minimal effect, with the greatest impact in states with automatic voter registration like Georgia and Nevada.

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Overall Tone and Style

• The episode is marked by frank, irreverent political analysis filled with sharp humor and blunt assessments. Ryan Graduski and Mark Halperin both speak candidly, sometimes with sarcasm and darkly comedic asides when evaluating candidates and party prospects.

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Summary Conclusion

This episode offers a dense, insightful preview of the underlying numbers, personalities, and trends shaping the 2028 presidential race, with clear-eyed skepticism of all camps. The conversation grounds political horse-race coverage in both demographic math and lived party dynamics, while speculating on how current controversies (like the Vance-Tucker relationship and Democratic infighting) may alter the expected paths to power.

Listeners leave with a nuanced sense of how early, how rapidly, and how chaotically the next presidential contest is already unfolding.

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For future episodes or further reading on Mark Halperin’s work, visit his YouTube channel "Next Up" or watch on 2Way TV.

Transcript

[Ryan Graduski]

This is an iHeart podcast.

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[Ryan Graduski]

welcome back to A numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you all for being here. I want to say Happy St. Patrick's Day. I'm Record this the day before so it is St Patrick's Day as of recording of this. And I want to wish everyone who is of Irish ancestry or yeah, who has Irish ancestry, I meant to say who has Irish ancestry like myself, a very happy St. Patrick's Day. I hope you all celebrate being Irish, really being Irish, which apparently the president of Ireland and the prime minister of Ireland do not share. My joy of the history of the Celtic people. I don't know if anyone saw it, but Michael Martin, the prime minister of Ireland, was in Washington on St. Patrick's Day, attended an event in the morning with Vice President Vance. There was a prayer. President Vance blessed himself. Michael Martin didn't, because the Irish politicians are allergic to being Catholic or having Catholic ancestry and lineage to them then sat with President Trump and noted how Ireland has just been thriving because of mass immigration. One in four people living in Ireland now is an immigrant. They've opened the floodgates across the country to Ireland into the Middle east. And it's doing wonders for petty theft and for housing prices. And you know, there's Irish citizens, rogue Irish citizens burning down asylum hotels. He mentions none of that. He says it's thrive if the economy is thriving. And Trump, to his credit, actually did push back and said a lot of problems are coming with it. And then over in Ireland, you had the new Irish president. Catherine Connolly, who wore black, refused to call St. Patrick St. Patrick. She called him Patrick as if she was his drinking buddy and then talked about how it's really a day about migration. For those who don't know the history of St. Patrick, he was a slave. He wasn't a migrant. It is an insult to call a. He was a slave. I mean, he was. There was no migration. There was no passport. He went there. He was forcibly brought to Ireland, but did great things with his time there. And it's absolutely inferior. The Irish politicians who govern that country are embarrassments. I know I have a few Irish listeners. I have relatives who live in County Cork. I have relatives who live in Belfast. It's an embarrassment. It's the most embarrassing politicians of any country in Europe. And England has Keir Starmer. That just goes to show how badly Ireland has fallen on its times. And Ireland is the last country in all of Europe, Western Europe especially, not to have an effective populist party pushing back on immigration. I know there's the Independence Ireland Party, but they're very small, they're very minor. They're trying to get it together. They only have, I think, three seats in their parliament. Not enough to. To have any kind of effective governing. And the three major parties all believe in the same thing, which is the erasure of Irish history, of Irish people and Irish culture, and absolutely horrifying, especially on a day to celebrate the resilience of the Irish people and all that Ireland gave the world. I mean, it's absolutely astonishing. And, you know, it's so funny. There is an app on. I see the ads on Instagram all the time. It's a history app. I don't know the name of it, but they one day talked about the 200,000 Irish orphans that were shipped to America and used basically as slave labor. And Irish slavery, which is never talked about in this own country, and the endurance of the Irish people to survive despite famines and. And really horrific treatment. And now their politicians are willing to wipe that all away in the name of diversity. They have traded hatred for the English for hatred for themselves. And to quote a short little poem by Patrick Pierce, I am come of the seed of the people, the people that sorrow, that have no treasure but hope, no riches Laid a memory of an ancient glory. My mother bore me into bondage in bondage my mother was born. I come of the seed of the people, the people that sorrow. There is no reason Irish people to have any sense of guilt whatsoever or to destroy their heritage and their country by flooding it with migrants from across the world. Ireland needs, you know, a place for the Irish. It's. It is what it is. Anyway, I'm not an Irish citizen. I don't know why I care so much. I think it's because the Irish heritage and I have relatives named Seamus. So, I mean, you get about Cypress as it gets. And. And just to see that. Just our collective ancestry being washed away. Okay, enough about Ireland. Let's talk about America. I am. I know what you're all thinking right now. You're all thinking, ryan, you were right again. How you know, how'd you do it? And you're probably also saying, what are you talking about? So I said a month ago on this podcast that Hakeem Jeffries is going to quickly wake up and realize that if he has a House majority in January, it will be the House that Bernie Sanders built. Bernie Sanders and progressive activists who love Bernie have been winning primaries across the country. They are changing the face of the Democratic Party. And a lot of them not big fans of Hakeem Jeffries, and they're increasingly saying they're unsure if they're going to support him for House Speaker. Axios. That's what I said a month ago. Now Axios is out with a new report that had a number of Democratic candidates coming forward and saying they are unsure who the next speaker will be, that they're not gung ho for Hakeem. This is, according to Axios, why it matters. It is a stark reversal from Jeffrey's virtual untouchable standing in the Democratic Party just a few years ago and a sign that his path to speaker may be rockier than previously thought. Jeffries and his allies maintain there's not a remotely worried about a mass defection, pointing out that even the minority. He has endured 20 speaker ballots and hasn't lost a Democratic vote. But this crop of freshmen may provide the first chink in heretofore impenetrable armor, with a block of genuinely viable candidates, making clear that voting for Jeffries as Speaker is not a given if the Democrats take the House. As of now, there are 80 candidates running for Congress this year who say they are not committed to backing Jeffries. That is not a small number, especially if Democrats find themselves in the same place that Kevin McCarthy did a couple of years ago. You have a majority. It's not a huge majority. What do you do? A couple of defections means you have to concede a lot of things to them. It means you're not guaranteed to get the speakership. And in the era of Trump 2.0 term, 2.0, there is a lot of belief among rank and file. Not rank file, but activist Democrats. The Democratic Party is not doing enough to fight the Orange Man. Right. That they. That the Democrats have gone along with funding the government, that they've gone along with other things that they should have been doing more, whatever it is, more. I don't know. I think some Democrat activists would have wanted the Democrats to shut down the government of day one. They possibly could have and kept the government shut down all four years. And Jeffries hasn't got along with that because being leader means you have to govern responsibly. So no surprise that he didn't do that. What Jeffries has going for him is the same thing that McCarthy had going for him, that there's no central opposition. Pelosi faced opposition a few times while she was speaker, but there was a person running against her. There was a guy running against her and saying, I'm going to be the opposition. They always lost. But there was someone to rally troops against Pelosi. There is no one rallying troops against Jeffrey's. Like there's no one relationships against McCarthy. They may be someone saying, I don't want him to be in power, but there's no one saying vote for me instead. Which is important. Matt Gates didn't want McCarthy, but they didn't find a consensus candidate. Wasn't like Gates himself was being presented as, as a choice for speaker. He. There was nobody. It was either McCarthy or nobody. And they're kind of having the same situation. The Democratic Party right now, they don't have a singular person offering a progressive vision who could raise money, because that's a big part of the job is who can raise money. And the truth is you can't beat somebody with nobody unless AOC or someone like that who has the belief, the support, the troops, the money. I can't, because money is very important for the Speaker. You're not going to find somebody kind of break Hakeem Jeffries lock on the Democratic Party. So Hakeem is safe right now. But things are dicey. And if they don't get their way or they can't blink or they cave one or two times and they have a small majority, it's going to be very, very dicey for Hakeem Jeffries going forward anyway. That's my little nods, my audience telling, I told you guys I was ahead of the curb. I knew what was happening. And I think this is going to be a long term issue for Hakeem Jabaris and whoever governs the Democrats in the House. The Democrats are going to act a lot more like the Republicans in the House when it comes to being less orderly. Now, I want to talk about something else that people think is very far into the future, but it's actually only a few months away. And that is the 2028 presidential election. I know some of you are like, Ryan, that's. That's four years away. No, it's not. The first candidates who will announce their run for the White House will happen within the next nine months. Basically, you will have. You could have a baby if you get pregnant today, and you will have a Democrat running for president or a Republican running for president. But by the time that baby is born, it's not a long time left before we're entering into the 2028 presidential cycle. And there's two things. There's two essential questions, which is one, is J.D. vance inevitable on the Republican side? And who is the most likely candidate on the Democratic side? Let's go into the Republican side first. I get messages about JD Literally every single week from somebody saying, you, you know, is the nomination process really over? What has he done to deserve the nomination? Is he ready to be president? Can we nominate someone else, or is somebody else going to run? Let me answer the last question first. Is someone else going to run? Yes, other people are going to run. Ted Cruz is almost definitely running for president. You know, he believes that he's got some kind of compact with God where he ends up being president one day. He's almost destined. He's got this, you know, destined from. From Christ himself to be president, United States. Side note, do you guys remember when he picked Carly Fiorini as his vice presidential candidate and they kind of grasped hands and missed each other's hands at the rally? I don't know why that kind of flashed in my memory as I was recalling Ted Cruz running for president, but it did. I've also heard rumors that Brian Kemp, governor of Georgia, is strongly considering Iran. Ron Desantis, governor of Florida, is considering Iran. I've heard Josh Hawley, the senator from Missouri, is asking questions. Ram Paul says that he's exploring his options. He's a senator from Kentucky. Steve Bannon, I've heard for a while wanted to run, but the Epstein stuff, the idea that he made this videotape with Epstein, not. Not those kinds of tapes, but a different kind of tape with Epstein and was interviewing him and never released the footage. And could have been very complimentary for Epstein, possibly in the footage. Whatever the case may be, I heard it's really hurt his potential of running. There's other people who want to run, but don't really have a Lane. Tulsi Gabbard, I heard, is interested, but doesn't know if she has got a lane RFK Jr very much wants to make a run for something and doesn't know if he has a lane. And then there's the 900 pound elephant in the room, which is Marco Rubio. Now, Rubio has been doing exceptionally good job as Secretary of State and everyone has taken notice, including the President. Um, and it's clear that Rubio is having an effect on the president's thinking when it comes to foreign policy. According to several reports, President Trump has asked multiple people if he should endorse Vance or Rubio for president. And at least one report said that a lot of donors really do love Rubio. They love Rubio more. Also, I want to point out that Susie is very close to Rubio as well. Susie, the chief of staff. Now, polling on the 2028 presidential race is very, very difficult because there are multiple names that are being floated in these polls who are not running, like Donald Trump Jr. Is not running for president. There is no reason why a pollster is throwing his name on a poll because it changes the poll's outcome, because he polls very, very high. He's the president's son. And it absolutely affects the way that these polls are coming out and the certainty of these polls. So of the polls that just have the most likely contenders, Vance has a formidable 20 to 30 point lead against Rubio, who's a distant second. And then DeSantis is in third. And he's just in the high single digits. In early swing states and polls like in New Hampshire, Vance is more than 50%. Even, even Rubio is not even in double digits. Now, obviously, if Trump were to endorse Rubio over Vance, that would change things considerably, but I have a hard time seeing that happen. And here's the reason. Vance is doing fundraising for the 2026 midterms. Vance is creating these independent relationships with donors. Vance is also. While this campaign isn't up and running yet, it will escalate quickly after the midterms and it will have a lot of the infrastructure from the Trump 2024 campaign on his side and Rubio, that's. I think that's why Rubio has firmly said, I'm not running. Advance is running. Now, if there's going to be some kind of upset where Rubio is, shocks everybody and announces it has to be in the next six months, because it's got to be. You have to get the jump start to create a parallel organization and kind of take over part of the Trump Organization. That I don't think that Vance would just give up on his own. So, no, I don't think that Vance is inevitable. But if you were a betting man and you're placing your house on the betting markets, you should bet on bets. That's my opinion. Now, on the Democratic side, there's so many people running, it is becoming a clown car. You have Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Senator from New Jersey, Cory Booker. You have Pete Buttigieg. You have Rahm Emanuel, former White House chief of staff for President Obama and Mayor of Chicago. You have Josh Green, the governor of Hawaii. I had to look him up, too. I didn't know who Josh Green was when I first read that he was considering running. Kamala Harris, the former Democratic nominee from 2024. Senator Mark Kel Kelly from Arizona, Senator Ruben Gallego from Arizona, Congressman Ro Conner from California, Governor Gavin Newsom from California, Congresswoman Alexander Cosio Cortez from New York, Center John, also from Georgia, Governor JP Pritzker from Illinois, and Governor Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania. Okay, that is the people who are running on the Democratic side so far. Those are the names being floated so far. Early polls at this part, far out without someone sitting in office, really is about name id. And obviously, Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom have the highest name id. They have the upper hand in these polls. But what is more important than the name recognition for the Democratic nomination is the calendar. No one is talking about this. See, the Democratic primaries has changed significantly where states like Iowa and New Hampshire, which used to go first, have been pushed aside from South Carolina. The Democratic Party says they're too white. And you know, white people, if they get a voice in the Democratic Party, it's, you know, that's bad news. It can't have. Can't let a white man from the Midwest have a voice in the Democratic Party. Absolutely not allowed. So they've moved to South Carolina, which is a majority black voting population for the Democratic primary. And that is the way that most of the Deep south still is. There's a. There's something like Florida. I don't think that like is like that anymore. Texas is not like that anymore. But most of the states in the south are still black, majority Democratic voting base. And they favor candidates who are more establishment, who are more centrist, and they give the Democratic nomination. It is almost virtually impossible to win the Democratic nomination without the support of older black women. In the Deep south, they nominated Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton. I mean, only, I think John Kerry, and only because John Kerry won all the states before the South. And so by that point, he was just kind of cleaning up I think he lost. I, you know, I think he lost north and South Carolina, but he was the only one. And, and he was able to sweep basically everywhere else. He might have lost one other state to, to, I think maybe lost Oklahoma as well, but he, he basically swept the entire race very, very quickly. But he was once again the only one. So you need the deep South. You need old ladies, the black, black, old ladies, Deep South. And who they support is who the likely Democratic nominee eventually will be. They're not going to support a people to judge. They're not going to vote for a gay candidate. They're not going to support a radical left winger. They're not going to support a Bernie Sanders. They probably will not support an aoc. So that's who you have to keep an eye out for if you're going to stare at cross polls, at cross tabs and polls. That's who you want to look at. How are black voters in the south, considering who are they voting for right now? They really do like Kamala Harris still because she was the nominee. She's a black woman. We'll see if they find favor or love with anybody else. But right now, according to the most recent poll, there's been no polls in South Carolina. But according to the most recent nationwide polls, 36% of black voters say Kamala Harris. And if she holds true that she could absolutely be the nominee. Again with me to Discuss all things 2028 is the great journalist Mark Halperin. That's coming up next.

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[Ryan Graduski]

With me to discuss the 2028 election is legendary journalist Mark Halpern of Next up with Mark Halpern and Two Way Fame. Thank you so much for coming on, Mark.

[Mark Halperin]

Honored to be here, sir. Thank you for including.

[Ryan Graduski]

So Mark, the question I get all the time, and I asked literally once a week, is, is J.D. vance inevitable? What is your opinion on that?

[Mark Halperin]

I thought he was and now I don't. I think the three things have happened that make him short of inevitable. He's still the base case, I think, still the most likely outcome, probably still by far is that he decides to run. The president endorses him and he's the nominee by consensus and probably runs with Marco Rubio. But three things have happened. First of all, the rise of Rubio. Just the the groundswell of interest in him and support of him and the belief amongst many stakeholders that Rubio would be a better nominee is pretty big. So that's number one. Number two, Vance has rubbed some people the wrong way in his public appearances and his private meetings with donors. He's just went from a run of nine months or so of extreme popularity and being extremely well received. And now some people having questions about his personality and about his failure to repudiate people like Tucker Carlson, so some doubts about him. And then lastly, as it's become kind of a possibility that it won't be Vance, whether Ted Cruz runs or other people run, there's just a sentiment of he needs to earn this, that it wouldn't be in the party's interest and it wouldn't be right to simply hand him the nomination, and that there should be whatever needs to happen to make it a competitive process needs to happen. So those three things have combined to make me pull back from my view that it was a mortal lock for Vance.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, I mean, Ted Cruz is going to run no matter what. Ted Cruz thinks that he's got a contract with Jesus Christ to be president one day. That is this, you know, this vision from above. I don't care who's running besides that. And there's other people who want to run. I know Ron DeSantis has made phone calls. I know that Brian Kemp has made phone calls. There are people who. That dream of the presidency hasn't lost upon them. But there is a belief among people in Vance camp that there shouldn't. That. That the vice president shouldn't even be on a debate stage with anybody else, that he should be running by himself. Is that you think the wrong opinion to make among Republican voters?

[Mark Halperin]

Well, it's a long time before voters have a say in this. And I think, I still think that there's a chance Vance will decide with his young children not to run. I just wouldn't rule that out. But if he decides to run, I find it hard to believe that he wouldn't get the president's endorsement. And then the question is, as the RNC Finance chair, which is a unique slot to be given to an incumbent vice president with presidential ambitions, as someone who still retains an extraordinary amount of goodwill within the party as the front runner in the polls, I think he'd win every element of the invisible primary well before any votes were cast. So that's what would lead him to get Trump's endorsement and I think to largely clear the field again well before anybody voted to voters. Do voters eventually, if he refused to debate if he didn't clear the field, would they care? Maybe, but I think the question will largely be answered before a vote is cast.

[Ryan Graduski]

Why is Trump asking about Rubio all of a sudden? Does Trump all of a sudden have a feeling like he's not as strong or that Rubio is so great?

[Mark Halperin]

I'm an expert in politics and campaigns in government, not in psychology, but I'll do my best. I think he, you know, he loves central casting, you know, the concept of central ca. He loves people who do well on TV and he's fascinated by kind of the anthropology, right. So I think he thinks it's interesting how often he hears from people at Mar A Lago and members of Congress and people reporters who he talks to. Rubio's kind of awesome. Isn't Rubio awesome? He thinks, well, that's interesting. Why are people talking so much about how awesome Rubio is then? I think, you know, as much as, as he may want to anoint Vance eventually, you know, he likes competition. He likes to put scorpions in a bottle and, or, you know, go to the Bronx to a COC and see people hammer each other. And then, you know, again, he's a pretty sophisticated TV producer. He sees what I see, which is Vance has had some less than sure footed moments in public and Rubio has not of late. So probably all those things just make him want to make mischief. And he knows that even if his thought is, you know, if I'm right, that eventually he's going to endorse Vance, there's no cost to doing this now and probably he sees an upside that Vance should have some competition because if he endorsed Vance right away or he only said nice things about Vance, I think he probably believes Vance would get to the general election without any sort of test. And as you know, often candidates who have rough nomination fights go into the general election a lot more battle tested and ready for the fight than if they, if they cruise the nomination.

[Ryan Graduski]

Also, he does create the situation where he really is a lame duck once there's a nominee to follow. Like it is a certain site. You know, Steve Bannon once said if Trump would be the last president ever, that would be his dream. Like, because he really, really would never want that to, to happen. And then, and last part of this before we go on is, you know, the Tucker Carlson correlation with Vance is what I hear about so often, particularly from Jewish friends of mine, Jewish political activists, Jewish donors. I think it is really actually haunting him with a certain segment of the population that can't be understated I mean, it's real. Like, it's not fake anymore. I believe things are fake until I've heard it a million times. I'm like, okay, maybe it's real, but I do believe it's real. Yeah, in a way.

[Mark Halperin]

For them, it's a question of character and values. And I think for some of them, it's a question of competence. They just, they think it's a no brainer to distance from Tucker. And it's not just Tucker, you know, those, those college Republicans who had the text chain where they, you know, made jokes about Hitler. Some other people in maga, like the vice president's attitude is, seems to be in kind of a, I would say almost childish way, is to be like, I'm not going to repudiate people just because people tell me to repudiate people without regard to. Well, like, would you repudiate, you know, Osama bin Laden? Right. So, so, so I, I totally agree with you that I hear it all the time. And like I said, it's not just that. The, it kind of rubs them the wrong way from a, from a, you know, like a, a political point of view. It really, they, they think it speaks to his values, plays into the doubts that a lot of people have had about him over the course of his time in public life that he went from saying Trump was the Republican Party's Hitler to saying Trump was the greatest president of all time. And they just. Some people see in him a phony and a person without values and without a North Star. And the Tucker stuff plays into that for a lot of people. Not just Jews, but a lot of Jews.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, it is a lot of. Yeah. Okay. So on the Democratic side, Mark has this great ranking. I watch it every time you post a new one of the Democratic primary, who is the most likely to get it, who's not is the least likely to get it. You have been famously bearish on Gavin Newsom for a very long time, until recently. You are extremely bullish on Rahm Emanuel, in my opinion. Much more so than I would I really. You speak very favorably about his possibilities of him being a nominee.

[Mark Halperin]

Truly, truly. My sources do. And I, I report what they say. I don't. I think there's a very small chance of his being the nomination, probably none, except if lots of people don't run and the establishment just gathers around him. I think his record with one of your favorite groups, the teachers unions in Chicago, I think his lack of bedside manner, I think his being Jewish, being short, I think that he Said opposition researcher's dream. No, I'm sorry, I gave you the wrong impression. He's on my list of eight. Because such a weak field and because he does have so much support from the establishment. And under certain circumstances, I believe he could be endorsed by both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, which for a lot of voters could make a difference. Endorsements really do. But I think those might. So I'm not bullish on him at all. I'm aware, though, that a lot of

[Ryan Graduski]

my sources are what, in your opinion? Because I said this is my monologue. The calendar is very important. If South Carolina goes first, black women in the south play an extraordinarily, you know, their vote really, really, really matters. And they're the vote that saved Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Who is playing to the progressive base who lives in New Hampshire and Vermont and who is playing to black women in the Deep south and playing them strong because it's a completely set of different values.

[Mark Halperin]

Well, yes and no. I mean, in, in this field, in this Republican, in this Democratic Party, I don't know that that's some sort of like existential choice between the two. I think right now, at this phase, at least, what voters, whether they're Bernie Sanders living on the New Hampshire border, Vermont border in New Hampshire, or whether they're 70 year old black women who vote regularly in South Carolina, they want someone who'll stand up to Trump, they want someone who's got energy, they want someone who seems to be able to bridge the divides within the party and within the country. So I think unlike some past cycles, and again, partly it's because the calendar is unsettled and partly because the field's so weak. I don't, I don't see lots of specialization in terms of either demographics or geography at this point. I think everybody is trying to play everywhere. And because no one is particularly strong, you can beat Pete Buttigieg historically, you know, comically weak with black voters and say, I'm going to make a play for that because with the exception of Kamala Harris, there's really no one in the potential field who has some sort of historic or deep hold on black women voters.

[Ryan Graduski]

I have told pollsters to put a poll in South Carolina or in Alabama or wherever where you put, put Pete Buttigieg up against a fictional Democrat and see who pulls higher with black voters. I would actually like to see if it, as I bet it's not people to judge, but I think that there is, I think there's a cautionary tale with Kamala Harris in 2024, where she famously said that she would give transgender illegal aliens free medical care. And it really did actually hurt her base with, with progress, with, with, with regular voters and for the, you know, love of progressives that she didn't end up getting anyway. Is there caution exist today at all? Like, hey, we can't go too far to the left. I know Andy Beshear does it, but does anybody else?

[Mark Halperin]

Well, your favorite candidate, Rahm Emanuel does. Gavin Newsom does it. Gavin Newsom does it episodically. I think there's part of why this is so unsettled. Besides, again, the weakness of the field and the lack of a DNC sanctions nominating calendar is there's two variables that if you look at the elections of 2016 and 2020, you would say would be a super source of strength for the Democratic nominee. Because I believe Sanders, Senator Sanders would have been the nominee in 16 and in 20 if the DNC hadn't agreed the rules to keep him from winning. One is super progressive and with the exception of AOC and Ro Khanna, there's no one else in my top list that are super progressive like single payer, Green, New Deal, you know, all that. So, so that's one. And then the other is, is sort of, is sort of populist outsider that no member of Congress except AOC need apply. Even governors might not be outsider enough. Right. So it's hard to know because 24 is not part of the sample space because we had an incumbent president and then he handed it off to an incumbent vice president. But most of the, of the fingertip feel my sources have and I have for the Democratic Party says populist super left wing outsider is a good lane. May not, it may not win, but it's a good lane. And again, I don't think AOC will run in the end. And so someone has to fill that lane. And, and I don't see it right now. I don't see who that person is.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, it's funny. Also, thing I'm hearing from Democratic consultants and activists is no women. I've heard from multiple Democrats saying we are not voting for a woman this time.

[Mark Halperin]

Right. So like you hear no women, you hear no Jew, you hear no gay, you hear no non white. So that doesn't leave a lot of people. That leaves Gavin Newsom and Andy Beshear for the most part.

[Ryan Graduski]

I do not believe that that Josh Shapiro conversation happened where they accused him of being an or asked me he was an agent for Israel. I don't believe that happened whatsoever.

[Mark Halperin]

I mean, I, I, I don't know, I'm agnostic on that, but I don't just don't think that, that, that specific or the general question of whether he makes stuff up are very big problems compared to most of the other candidates.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, yeah, that's true. Okay, so if you had your ranking now, who is the top person who is leading the field? The weak field, mind you, but the leading field.

[Mark Halperin]

I think Newsom and Shapiro are head and shoulders above everyone else. But I don't think Newsom's going to make it to the starting line in the end. And I think Shapiro has massive flaws. But I also don't believe in this white knight theory that somebody surprising is going to come through. So my current, my current bet is it's going to be buttigieg, as implausible as that is. But until they prove either they're not running or they're weak, I think it'd be either Newsome or Shapiro.

[Ryan Graduski]

I literally guessed. That is a hot take. If you could compare this field, as a student of history, compare this field to any other previous primary, which one would it be? Is this like 2004? 2000, I don't even know.

[Mark Halperin]

1992, 2004 was a pretty weak field, but I think this is currently the weakest field.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, Mark Halpern, thank you so much. Where people go to read all your stuff, listen to you. Your shows are always must watch in my household.

[Mark Halperin]

I appreciate that. Next up on YouTube or 2way TV. You can find some of my content there. That's plenty.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. Thank you so much.

[Mark Halperin]

Okay, thank you. Great to see you.

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[Ryan Graduski]

Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, ryan numbers game podcast.com that's right at numbers plural numbers game podcast.com this question comes from my buddy Peter Fomo. He says if the SAVE act passes, what is your opinion on whether or not it will help Republicans? I assume it will help but my concern is that Republican low propensity voters may not get the effort to register. Maybe. I mean it affects new registrations on existing ones. I think it will have a minimal effect where I think it could have a large effect. The place is going to have the biggest effect is in states with automatic voter registration. So among swing states, places like Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia. In Georgia, I think it will actually help Republicans a lot. A lot of low propensity, mostly black voters who do turn out for Joe Biden, who turn out for Stacey Abrams, who turn out for, you know, any Democrat. They will likely not be able to automatically get voter registration, which means they have to do the work and not just show up on election day, which would probably decrease voter turnout among that population. But it's going to be very small. I my bet and I don't think it's going to necessarily change the dichotomy too much. I would guess my if I had to put on money aware it helps Republicans weekends it will affect automatic voter registration and that will impede probably automatic registration in, in, in states that in states with, with large populations of low propensity Democratic voters like Nevada and Georgia. That's my guess. We'll see. We'll see if it even passes. I mean they're, they're coming up to a problem now. Lisa Murkowski not supporting it. So who knows? I mean it's going to be by the skin of their teeth that they get the this thing through. We'll have to wait and see. Anyway, that's this episode. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, wherever. Get your podcast and I will talk to you guys on Friday. Bye.

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