← The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind America’s Population Shift, Immigration Drop & 2030 Election Shake-Up
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Ryan Gradosky
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Ryan Gradosky
Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gradosky. Thank you guys for being here. I have a packed show for you. When I mean packed, I mean packed, I, I have to tell you, whenever Trump does something to irritate me and annoys me and I think this happens with everybody. With Trump, you just, you're like, okay, I'm done. I've had enough. I'm tapped out. I can't do this anymore. And then he does something that is, you know, a win that is existential for conservatives where I'm like, all right, he want me back. That happened over the week. And for those faithful listeners, you've heard me say time and time again that mass immigration, both legal and illegal, are allowing Democrat run states to escape the political ramifications for their bad policy. What does that mean? It means that, you know, every year thousands and tens of thousands, if not more Americans are leaving New York, New Jersey, California, Illinois. They're done. They're tired of bad liberal policies. But what happens is, is that those same states are accepting hundreds of thousands of immigrants, both legal and illegal, into the country. And so when we have our census every 10 years, those states don't lose as much electoral power as they should because they're using immigrants kind of to pad their losses. So, you know, AOC has a seat today or, or Maxine Waters has a seat today in part because they have enough immigrants moving to those districts and moving to those states where otherwise they wouldn't have had those seats. And by the way, it allows Democrats fail policies in the states to be maximalized to the entire country because Washington doesn't feel the ramifications, which they should because of bad state policies. Okay. According to new census data, because of the drastic cuts to immigration, both legal and illegal, because of the Trump administration, especially on the illegal side, there's been a little bit of cuts on legal immigration through regulatory reform. There's been obviously nothing through the Congress. There has been a massive reduction immigration through every metropolitan area in this country. According to the Census, every single metro area saw a decline in immigration numbers, almost all by over 50%. In El Paso, there was a 95% reduction. That's all illegal immigration, by the way. In Los Angeles, 67% reduction. Denver, 72% reduction. New York City, 65% reduction. Chicago, 62% reduction. Seattle, 31% reduction. And this reduction of immigration levels create the blueprints for the 2030 Census reduction, which will only be happening in half a decade. It's not that far away, really. I mean, it's as far as 2020 was, and that feels like it was 35 seconds ago. So how many blue seats are they going to lose in the House? How many electoral college votes are they going to lose? Likely a lot more than they thought they were going to lose just a year ago. And I want to. I want to put this calculation, you know, into people's heads. In 2020. In 2024, Kamala Harris had to win every blue wall state to be president. Right. Joe Biden had to win every blue state, Blue wall state to be present. The rate that it is going right now, even if a Democrat were to win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, they could not win the presidency. Let me repeat that. The blue wall becomes irrelevant the way that the demographics are shaking out. And by the way, this number, this census number that just came out, this is the 2024-2025 census. This is a census where Bide for six months of the year, the 2025-2026 census, which will be coming out next year, is going to be a bloodbath. Like if this is the first six months before Trump put in travel bans on dozens of countries before he increased the H1B rate to $100,000 for new H1B employees before really ramping up mass deportations. And it's going to be a bloodbath for Democrats next year. 2024-2025 was the slowest rate of growth for immigration in this country since the COVID pandemic, with 40% of U.S. counties losing population. Even though the overall population grew by 1.8 million people, which is still a lot for a one year calendar year. If you think about it, that's bigger than a lot of smaller states in the country. Net migration to the US from overseas fe by more than a million people. And the places that were affected the most are big cities, especially big blue cities. Net international migration fell by more than 50% in places that had more than a million people living them. People do not want to live in big cities the way that they used to. They prefer excerpts or in suburbs with the Internet the way it is now. You don't need to live in, in New York to get, you know, a good job. It helps to have access to, you know, potential clients or to jobs. But you don't have to work there anymore the way that, you know, they. People have satellite offices everywhere. And a lot of people don't work in an office at all. They work from home, they work from their computer. They, they travel a lot more. Here is the list of places that experience the highest number of people with population change. This is like negative population change. This is births plus inward migration, both foreign and domestic, minus deaths from outward migration, people who left the state and people who died, minus people who were born and people who moved to the state. Okay, the number one place to lose people, Los Angeles. They lost 53,934 people, folks. LA lost a congressional district in a single year. 53,900 people. They lost an entire congressional district in one year. Experts are saying that California is going to lose four seats by 2030. No, they're going to lose six. Unless a Democrat wins in 2028 and in 2029, they kick the doors open, which, you know, is totally possible. But going the way things are going, California's going to lose six congressional seats next year in 2030 is what I predict. Next up, Pinales, Florida. That is St. Petersburg. They lost 11,000 dol 800 people. That's a little surprising. I didn't expect the number to be that high. I've been to St. Petersburg. It's a nice enough place. They've got a great Dolly Museum nearby. Third to go, Miami Dade, Florida. 10,100 people. This does not surprise me. I have Siblings who live in Miami Dade. I've been there many, many times. They experienced a crazy influx during COVID I think it was a little unsustainable. And Miami is just not for everybody. And still Miami still has 30,000 more people who have moved there since before COVID So it's not like they experience, you know, they're negative since COVID It's just that people have changed their minds about living in a big city in South Florida. Next up is my homeborough of Queens, Queens, New York. Trump's homeborough as well was 8,800 people in a single year. This is before Mandani became mayor. This is before all the craziness. The calendar year goes from September to September. So it's not. This is before the election. It's going to get worse than Orange County, California. 8,500 people. I'm going to run out of list very quickly. San Diego, 5300. Shelby, Tennessee. This is where Memphis is located. The most democratic part of Tennessee, 5,200. The Bronx, 4,700. Dallas, 2600. Ventura County, 2,600. That's the top. Those are the big counties that lost the big population. Other counties lost the population, obviously, but those are the big ones. Where did population grow? Number one, Harris County. This is the Home of Houston. 49,000. Collin county, which is a suburb of Dallas. 43,000 Maricopa County, Arizona. Home of Phoenix. 35,000 Montgomery, Texas. 30,000 Wake County, North Carolina. 28,000 King County, Washington, which I was actually surprised. This is why Washington still has a no income tax. I mean, they've changed this year. 27,000 Mecklenburg County, North Carolina. This is the home to Charlotte. 26,500 Fort Bend, Texas. 24,000 Williamson, Texas. 24,000 Pinal, Arizona, 23,600. Notice a trend there, by the way, Florida is not on the list. I believe that Florida is hitting this kind of reduction in influx in population. One, because so many people move there that it jacked up home prices. And secondly, I think part of it, from what I've known from people who live in Florida, is the insurance rates are just so high, they are steering people away. And also Florida has worked harder than any other state. And this is the credit to Rhonda Sanders to deport illegal immigrants. So I think you're seeing a lot of illegal immigrants leave the state and you're seeing people not move there as high numbers. I think in part because the insurance for hurricanes and is astronomical right now in Florida and home prices have surged. It's Very expensive. Other parts of the panhandle in Mississippi, Alabama and even part of Louisiana have seen population growth, I think, as people want to live near the Gulf of America. But that's much more affordable than it is in Florida right now because of the so many people move there. Only one county up here in Florida appeared in the top 10, which is Polk County. But anyway, a lot of growth from Texas, Arizona and the Carolinas, all states that voted for Trump. As far as metropolitan areas go, only two states, blue states, experience population growth in a metropolitan county. Washington, D.C. that whole area, which is northern Virginia, southern Maryland, that added 53,000 people and Seattle added 43,000. Seattle is acting as a sponge for other progressives who can't afford California anymore. And they want to live in a big blue area. They're moving to Seattle. On the Republican side, All the rest Republicans. Right. And only one actually are in Florida. Not to. I'm not bashing on Florida, by the way. I just find it fascinating because Florida was the growth central of the entire country. But only one Floridian Florida metropolitan area saw extensive population growth, and that was Orlando. Texas made up four of the top 10, with North Carolina, South Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Florida making up the rest. Since 2020, and this is with Biden's insane level of immigration when he kicked open the floodgates. Los Angeles has saw a decline in population of over 300,000 people. Chicago has lost 85,000. Every borough but Staten island in New York City has lost people. Staten island gained 5,000. Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan and the Bronx lost 226,000 people. That means all of these big blue cities are losing a congressional representative, a vote in the Electoral College. Do you understand what is happening? It's a total reversal of the Biden years, of the Obama years, even of the Bush years, and I would even say of Trump term, first term. Letting blue cities off the hook for bad policies that drive Americans away. They don't deserve the political capital in Washington that they have gotten over the last few years. They don't deserve to have all these congressmen while red states with red counties have, you know, real Americans living in them. They're not just immigrants living in them. They have Americans, I mean, who don't receive the representation that they deserve. Mass migration reform allows them to not be held accountable. It has been stopping and has been slowing down. And that is a good thing. They're going to lose. I would say right now Democrats are probably going to lose 12 seats in the 2030 census right now. If I had to guess about 12 seats. And Republicans are going to gain in places like North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Texas and Florida. If they can keep those states red, they will control the presidency for the next decade. Who knows, they may be able to control the House of House Representatives for the next decade, too. We don't know what will happen with all the redistricting, but the presidency certainly looks very favorable for Republicans because they don't need these swing states anymore in the sense of the, of the, of the heavily unionized, traditionally Democratic Rust belt states. They just don't, they've made themselves irrelevant. It's not just because of good weather too. It's because of favorable taxes. People like aoc, Maxine Waters, Mike Quigley, they're gonna find themselves without a job. They're gonna, I mean, maybe they can primary another Democrat, but it's gonna be a smaller and smaller pool out of the congressional districts that you know are most likely to, to go, they're gonna go not only in some rural areas in those days, but definitely in the cities. And it is their own policies that destroyed them because people are abandoning them. They're dying from it with a whimper and not a bang. Okay, I, it's fascinating. We'll have, we have a couple more years of this, of breaking down data. But if this is a sign of what's to come from the first seven months of the Trump presidency, next year's is going to be, Democrats are going to be shaking. And that is also why, by the way, you're seeing Democrats chains position on housing, which is like a yes and no thing. Yes, housing in blue states are too expensive. Yes, that does drive people away. But no, that's not the only thing driving people away. Your crime policies are completely inadequate. Your taxes are insane, your business tax is nuts. There's a lot of things driving away. It's not just housing. I'm just letting Democrats know it's not just a housing thing, but they are changing their position on it because they realize how many people they're losing. Okay, next up, I have more interesting data for you guys on international news and religion. That's coming up next.
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Ryan Gradosky
so there was a story in the New York Times late last week about the number of Catholic churches in the US Experience a surge of conversions, people coming to the Catholic Church. It's something I've explored a lot on this podcast. You guys know I'm Catholic born and raised, and I find it very interesting because a lot of people embellish numbers on religion and I try to find some really good, interesting, hard data to kind of back up where we are as a country because we're probably we are likely the most religious country in the Western Hemisphere, especially of the developed countries. The Times reached out to 12% of dioceses in America. That's a large sample size and they all reported a surge of membership. This is According to the Times, people are joining the Roman Catholic Church in surprising numbers. The Easter Egypt. This Easter, the Archdiocese of Detroit will receive 1428 new Catholics into the church. It's the Highest number in 21 years. The Archdiocese of Galveston, Houston will be at its most in 15 years. The Archdiocese of Des Moines is up 51% from last year, from 265 to 400. The first year after the election of Pope Leo, the first pontiff from the United States, many Catholic churches are across across America are welcoming their highest number of new Catholics in recent years. The newcomers are said to officially be received into the church on Easter Vigil Mass the night before Easter on April 5th. Of course we think the Holy Spirit. Sorry, of course we think the Holy Holy Spirit is Cardinal Robert McCloy of Washington said, well, we are all kind of stymied. His own archdiocese is set to receive 1755 people entering the church's Easter, up from 1500 the year prior, which was already the highest number in 15 years. This data comes amid this is, by the way, this is not the Times. This is just me talking. This article comes amid new data from Ryan Burge. I've had him on this podcast. He explores data behind religion. He's a I I like Ryan. Not only because his name is excellent. But I like Ryan because he's a straight shooter. He doesn't BS you. He doesn't tell you what he wants to happen, he tells you as it's happening. And he says according to the Cooperative Election Study, this is an incredible study that Harvard puts out every year. Huge sample sizes. Something I'm going to explore in our next episode what their 2025 data really looks like. The share of non religious people in this country has dropped. For the third consecutive year. 31% of Americans as of 2025 report to be non religious. 5% being atheist, 5% being agnostic, 21% being nothing in particular. Meaning they haven't really thought about it, but they don't have like a, a stake in being anti religious like maybe like atheists do. That's down 5% from an all time high of 36% in 2023. I think conversion conversations rather about religious revivals can be overstated. People who really want there to be a religious revival will talk about it a lot. The data doesn't show that as much as it shows really a stop in the number of people being non religious. Like the non religious numbers have come to a halt. The slow, you know, washing away of Christianity America really has rescinded since COVID It is. It's something that we are not seeing a huge uptick the way we used to see in the number of people stating that they're non religious. The cooperative study back to that study also says that the number of people identifying as Catholic kind of identifying with the Times piece has actually increased over the last few years. It's up to 16 of young people being identifying as Catholic up from 14% back in 2021. So it's very interesting and maybe the com. Maybe the big hope that a lot of socially progressive people had that we're going to see this complete reversal of America's long standing religiosity is been is a bet that they shouldn't have made. I mean who knows what this means for social policy? Who knows what this means for family formation. I do know this religious people marry more frequently, they have children more frequently and they are more engaged in civic society. Something interesting the time said which goes back to the COVID information is because as the world became more on the Internet percentages of the population, even if it's a minority, wanted human interaction. And religion and church attendance especially is human interaction. I mean, I guess you can watch it on television. It is not the same as going to a church. So I find that Very, very interesting. And other countries have also experienced this spike, especially in France, has been a notable spike in the number of conversions. Speaking of Europe and I this is my segue to the last topic I'm going to talk about on this podcast. There's been a lot of interesting breaking election stuff coming out of Europe and I don't really touch on European politics a lot outside of England, just because it's not for everybody. I get that. But I think enough has happened to give a quick rundown to my audience. The first being that there was an election in Denmark. Now, I know aside from Bernie Sanders praising Denmark, most of you guys were like, I don't even think about Denmark. They gave us Ozempic and Legos and, you know, nothing else fair. But it's important because when it comes to the American foreign policy, you know, a lot of Social Democrats in Europe really stake out the hatred for Trump among Europeans as the answer to faltering political support. Right. European center left has really saw a massive decline over the last couple of years in almost every part of Europe. People in Europe do not like Americans particularly well, even though, I mean, they should. I mean, we're great, but that's just a joke for my European audience. It's not a very big audience, but they're there and I acknowledge you and I love you for listening. But they really hate Trump. Europeans really, really hate Trump. And when Trump was talking about annexing Greenland, it was this massive backl clash in Denmark. Well, the, the Danish prime minister who's been kind of faltering in the polls was like, oh, this is perfect. There's a rally around the flag effect happening in my country. Her poll numbers went up. The center rights poll numbers went up. And the center. Moderate. Moderate, that's called the Moderate Party. It's a centrist party. Their poll numbers went up. They said, this is perfect. We'll hold an election. I'll increase my numbers in Parliament and it'll be easier for me to govern. So what happened? The very opposite happened of what she predicted. The governing Social Democrats, which is a left wing party, if you couldn't tell, had their worst performance in a century. They lost 12 seats. The center right party was called Vestry. They lost five seats and which was their worst number of all time. And the Moderate Party lost two seats. Everyone making a bet that this election be a referendum on Trump lost the biggest winner with the Danish People's Party. It is a nationalist party. They campaign specifically on re mitigating people who had immigrated to Denmark and, and became Danish citizens who are not Western. They were. They ran on. We're going to offer them an incentive or demanded that they move back to Syria or Morocco or Afghanistan or wherever they came from. They won 11 seats. The Green Left, which is a very progressive party, which doesn't like how the Social Democrats were actually pretty conservative when it came to immigration for a left wing party. They won five seats. And this new party, which is a hard nationalist party called the Citizens Party, they won four seats. Those were the big winners. The prime minister has to resign. It's kind of a traditional thing. It's not, you know, don't read too heavily into that. But she has to resign and then try to form a new governing coalition. But that would be much more difficult than in the past, given how many people parties have seats in Parliament and how neither the center left nor the center right have enough vote, have enough seats for a coalition, for a majority. They have to work with the Moderates. They've got other minor minority parties together. People don't like people. It's very tense. But that's what's happening. Over in Denmark. Another prime minister who had a substantial election loss was my girl, Georgia Maloney. Over in Italy, there was a national referendum on the judiciary in Italy and it lost by seven points nationally. The referendum would have separated a career path between judges and public prosecutors, and it would have split the High Council for Judiciary into two distinct bodies. I know that doesn't mean a lot to you guys. Look, I. This is the simplest way I can explain it. The Italian constitution is a complete disaster. It's written after World War II and it's to stymie the potential of another leader kind of gaining too much power. And in fact, the bureaucrats in Italy can depose a democratically elected prime minister if they feel that they're working out of interest of Italy. Well, what does that mean? Mean? I mean, that could mean whatever they wanted to mean. They have more power than the actual democratic elected prime minister does when it comes to trying to see their goals met. It's why Georgia Mooney can't do a lot of things that I think she wants to do, a lot of things that the people want her to do. And the judiciary also steps in the way quite a number of times. And she's really trying hard with these referendums to change the Italian constitution, to make it possible to see reforms happen. But like the Italian people, I mean once, I mean totally screw this election up, they lost by seven points. It was not a big victory. And you know I talked to one of my friends from Malta the other day about the pervasiveness of institutional socialism in European politics, especially southern European politics. And he said the most fascinating thing that I had never thought of before. He said, after World War II, you had two choices. You were either a fascist or you were a socialist. And there was nothing in between really in most of these places and international organizations, especially in America, really invested in socialists as a precaution to having another rise of fascism. They didn't want a third world war right after the second one. And it is why so much of Europe, from the, from the European Parliament to that was written right after the 40s. But the European Parliament, to a lot of these national constitutions, to the European Human Rights Council, it's all, you know, in reaction to World War II and it's totally incapable of making sure these countries can govern now. But it's fascinating to think of why we invested so heavily in socialism right after World War II. Anyway, it wasn't at all, it wasn't all a loss for the nationalist right. Across Europe, France and Marine Le Pen's party had a series of victories. They won 3,000 council seats throughout their entire country's municipal election. That's a fold increase. They also had a big victory for the mayor of Nice, which is the fifth largest city in that country. They had never governed a city or have a mayorship of a city that large. They did experience some losses in some larger cities like in Marseille and in Toulon, but nonetheless they did make that gain in Nice. That's nothing small. They gained a lot of other mid sized cities that's not that small. And in the next presidential election, when that happens in 2027, they are, they are still firmly in first place. And there's really no second close. It's a competition for second place. They don't know who's going to come there, but they have 36% of the vote for the first round. Remember in France's two rounds, the presidential elections, you have to get 50%. So the first round they're already at 36%. They've never been that high that early on before. And in fact it was two presidential election cycles ago where they ended the second round only at 33%. So they've really made gains. And the last thing I want to address over in Europe was a vote in the European Parliament was pretty significant. The EU parliament voted 389 to 206 to endorse tougher deportation methods. Methods. This makes it easier for countries in Europe to Create offshore detention centers for people to be deported outside of the eu, for people who are considered, you know, criminals or just regular aliens to go to a country and not be in the EU where they have, have more EU rights and privileges. This is something that Giorgio Maloney and other eu, you know, nationalists have really fought for in New York for many, many years now. It expands the number of countries acceptable to be outside of the EU that you could deport people to and allows for up to two years in detention, which is the highest that the EU has ever allowed. It is a big victory for EU nationals. But more importantly in the European Parliament, what has always been kind of of the mover and shaker is that the center left and the center right and the centrist always work together to knock out the quote unquote far right and the quote unquote far left. Well, in this case, the center right worked with the nationalist right for the first time really ever to stand up to the left and the centrists who, who wanted kind of the business to continue as is and didn't really want to increase deportations. And it's the, the first time that that wall, that coalition wall has cracked in a serious way. I want to see what that means one for Germany because Germany has the largest block of delegates in the European Union. They are the, the biggest powerhouse right now in the European Union. And what they say really does kind of matter in a big way. And they have elections coming up with, with local governments where the AfD, which is the Nationalist party and, and Uncle Merkel's old political party will maybe be able to work together for the first time. They may not be able to box out the Nationalist right like they have done for the last 30 years. It could be a major development in Europe that we're seeing right now. Okay, Ask Me Anything is coming up next. Stay tuned.
- [36:12]
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Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks, generate a assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable. And based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures this
- [37:13]
Jacob Goldstein (Odoo Ad)
is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive and when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting. All linked and talking to each other. Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com have
- [37:57]
Klarna/Bombas/Sonesta Ads
you heard about Klarna? Klarna is an app designed to make everyday spending simpler and more transparent. It gives you flexibility to decide how you want, whether that's paying right away, paying later, or spreading payments over time, depending on what works best for you. Everything is managed in the Klarna app so you can keep track of purchases and stay organized. You can also discover deals and even earn cash back when you shop through the Klarna app with participating brands. It's all about flexibility and staying in control of how and when you pay. Download the Klarna app today or visit klarna.com to learn more. Terms Apply California Resident Loans made or arranged pursuant to a California Finance law license NMLS number 1353190 Klarna balance account required to be eligible for cashback points. Limitations, terms and conditions apply.
- [38:57]
Inner Balance/Oestra Ad
If you're feeling off fatigue, mood changes, skin shifts, yet your labs say everything's normal. You're not alone. Meet Oestra from Inner Balance the first all in one Prescription Strength bioidentical hormone cream that's natural and effective and only takes one drop 10 seconds a day. Oester replaces five to six products women typically use to treat symptoms and is third party tested to ensure the highest quality. Visit innerbalance.com today to start feeling like yourself again. That's innerbalance.com you see it instantly.
- [39:30]
Coldwater Creek Ad
It's Coldwater Creek, the mark of exceptional workmanship and signature touches inspired by a Mountain west heritage. Distinctive styles created from quality fabrics, silhouettes perfected with just the right drape feel good fits offering ease of movement and thoughtful details to elevate your look for a wardrobe you can count on season after season. Visit coldwatercreek.com Shop the new spring collection at 20% off $75 or more with code iheart20
- [39:59]
Ryan Gradosky
welcome back to the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryan@NumbersGame podcast.com that's ryan@Numbersporal numbers game podcast.com first email comes from Tommaso. He says love your story about working at Victoria's Secret. I worked at the store downtown not far from Wall Street. It was my first job and it teaches you skills in dealing and not dealing with people. That is for sure. He said he asked the question it looks like Hilton is in the lead for the governor of California, but it's early. Plus they steal votes in California. What are the odds, do you think, for most pollsters, minds? Well, I want to say first, I'm not a pollster because I think that people do confuse it sometimes. I just analyze polls and I pick up on trends. But I think that the odds of Hilton being in the runoff are extremely high. I would say probably 95% chance he's going to be in the runoff and he's going to make the top two in California. The bigger question is, can the other Republican, Bianco, Sheriff Bianco, also make the top two? That is a really hard question to ask, and it depends on two things. One, will the Democrats consolidate, which as of yet they have not, and two, what does the overall electorate look like? If the electorate is 37, 38 or 39% Republican, which is the number between the the presidential election and their last two gubernatorial elections, then they have a good chance. I think Republicans need to get as close to 40% of the overall electorate as possible. It's Republicans plus independents and Democrats who vote Republican. You know, it's like a certain percentage of independents and it's a few Democrats. As of right now, I would say there's a 20% chance that it's Republican versus Republican and they box at the Democrats, which would be good. I mean, because it would be one, they'd have a Republican governor even if it was only, you know, a year and a half before they did the whole, you know, trying to kick him out, but also because if it's two Republicans, a lot of low propensity Democrats who don't have a Democrat on the top of the ticket in the ballot probably will stay home. I mean and it could actually help Republicans down ballot. So it's a big question. Will Porter or Steyer take out Slalwell or will Slawell search? Slowwell is definitely the Democrat getting the most amount of attention right now. But Steyer has a lot of money. Porter has a lot of money. Slobble is a very flawed candidate. A lot of other big Democrats are running. So we'll see. Next question comes from Mark. He writes Ryan Loveless in your podcast and hearing about incisive insights. I am bombarded with news from the states such as Texas, Florida and Tennessee, but becoming more conservative by the influx of refugees from failing blue states. I moved to Arizona in 2020 and live in a retirement community in North Tucson. Tucson's great by the way. Food is excellent. A huge portion of new residents are moving here from California as well as Colorado and Washington. I, I fear they are bringing the disease politics with them. In Arizona, the Republican Party seems to nominate candidates with no chance of winning. How do you assess the prospect of Republican Party in Arizona in the near to midterm? Are we doomed to become California? So I've done some work in Arizona a lot with my school board pack, the 1776 Project PAC and a little with Blake Masters. I helped a little bit on his congressional race, his second race. And there are a lot of problems in Arizona. First and foremost is there's a complete breakdown of trust between voters in the party, voters and the party. Rather it's worse than I've ever seen anywhere else in the country. And part of that is because I think in Arizona, I mean Arizona used to be a very, very rural state, but right, extremely rural. So you could really just campaign in country clubs and win for a very long time. And that kind of political method of country club Republicanism running the inter workings of the party still is very real in Arizona. Maybe not as real as it was even a couple years ago, but a lot of prominent politicians in the Arizona Republican Party, Doug Ducey, the McCain's, you know, there's been a lot of them who really had a lot of support from within the country club apparatus and that built a lot of resentment in the grassroots. And there's just that resentment has really reached a boiling part and especially as the states ballooned in population, everyone's like give me attention and give me equal voice. Also 2022 election really broke A lot of people's brains. I think Carrie Lake did a giant disservice to the voters of Arizona, especially Republican voters, because she has real talent like I'm never going to take away from her. She's a really talented auditor, but she squandered that by running a terrible campaign for governor and then lying to people saying that her election was stolen. It wasn't stolen. And I think that she's done a lot of things, allegedly that have landed her in hot water with courts. And she put out a lot of fury among the base who believe that they cannot trust the system in Arizona and they believe it's not. And Arizona, by the way, Arizona's election can be improved for sure. I'm not saying it's perfect. However, she has created an anger and a rage that they can't trust anybody. And there's a complete breakdown. There was a breakdown of trust beforehand and she lit this entire thing on fire, making it more all more worse. The good thing for Republicans, I will say, is that the voter registrations in the state have boomed in Republicans favor. Republicans have a 330,000 registered voter advantage. That is double what they had in 2022. In 2022 they had 160 something thousand. Had they had those 160,000 Republicans that they have now, they would have won every single statewide race in 2022. So that's the one thing good thing going. I think in Maricopa county, some Democrats have surged recently, but overall the balance has been significant in Republicans favors, which is a good thing. Can they win the governor's election? Biggs, Andy Biggs, who's the Republican likely nominee. He's down single mid digits right now in the polls. But I have to stress there haven't been many polls taken this year. I think there's only been two since December. So we will see. Last question from John from Kentucky. John writes, I don't know where you got your information on the Strategic Strategic petroleum reserve, the SPR, but it was wrong. The EIA website, the best source of information, says that the SPR, when full, holds a little more than 700 million barrels of oil. The chart he links, he sent me a chart with the EIA page shows that the reserve is primarily filled under Bush and topped off at the beginning of Obama's administration. Biden depleted the reserve dramatically in 2022 to lower prices in advance of the 2022 midterm. Biden regained, began refilling the reserves at a slower rate than he had depleted it. And Trump continues to refill it until recently, but at a rate even slower than Biden. Okay. This comes from a question that I received from a listener several weeks ago and John from Kentucky, I have to apologize. I looked for where my source was because you asked me what my source was for my answer and I couldn't even find the script. I save all my scripts so I don't know what happened to it. But I did research on what you said in this and you are right, I was wrong. I gave people the wrong information. I said that our petroleum reserves were near historic highs as of 2023 and they were not. Our petroleum reserve is actually at the lowest it's been since 1984, which is kind of crazy. So I apologize for that, John. And you are absolutely correct. Our long term average strategic petroleum reserve is usually 576 million barrels of oil. And right now we're at 415 million. So we're not only not near the highest amount, we're not even near our average of where we usually are by over 150 million barrels of oil. So that is, that's pretty concerning. During Biden's presidency with an all time low of 348 million barrels and slowly been increasing as John mentioned. And Obama's was the highest in 2011 at 726 million barrels. John, thank you for the correction. It's important sometimes that when I get things wrong, I don't know where I did that research from. I usually am pretty, pretty methodical. So I apologize for that. And I want to thank you for sending me this email. I want to thank you all for listening. That's this episode. I will see you guys on Wednesday. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, wherever, YouTube podcast and on YouTube. I will see you guys on Wednesday.
- [48:29]
Jacob Goldstein (Odoo Ad)
This is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive. And when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting, all linked and talking to each other. Check out odoo@o d o o dot com. That's o d o o dot com.
- [49:13]
Klarna/Bombas/Sonesta Ads
Have you heard about Klarna Klarna is an app designed to make everyday spending simpler and more transparent. It gives you flexibility to decide how you want to pay, whether that's paying right away, paying later, or spreading payments, depending on what works best for you. Everything is managed in the Klarna app so you can keep track of purchases and stay organized. You can also discover deals and even earn cash back when you shop through the Klarna app with participating brands. It's all about flexibility and staying in control of how and when you pay. Download the Klarna app today or Visit Klara. Visit Klarna.com to learn more. Terms Apply California Resident loans made or arranged pursuant to a California Finance law license NMLS number 1353190 Klarna balance account required to be eligible for cashback points Limitations, terms and conditions apply.
- [50:14]
Inner Balance/Oestra Ad
If you're feeling off fatigue, mood changes, skin shifts, yet your labs say everything's normal. You're not alone. Meet Oestra from Inner Balance, the first all in one prescription strength bioidentical hormone cream that's natural and effective and only takes one drop, 10 seconds a day. Oester replaces five to six products women typically use to treat symptoms and is third party tested to ensure the highest quality. Visit innerbalance.com today to start feeling like yourself again. That's innerbalance.com you see it instantly.
- [50:47]
Coldwater Creek Ad
It's Coldwater Creek, the mark of exceptional workmanship and signature touches inspired by a Mountain west heritage. Distinctive styles created from quality fabrics, silhouettes perfected with just the right drape. Feel good fits offering ease of movement and thoughtful details to elevate your look. For a wardrobe you can count on season after season. Visit coldwatercreek.com Shop the new spring collection at 20% off $75 or more with code IHEART20.
- [51:14]
Klarna/Bombas/Sonesta Ads
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