Podcast Summary

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind America’s Shifting Electorate & the 2026 Midterm Outlook
Host: Ryan Grusky (Note: The main content is delivered by Ryan Grusky, not Clay or Buck)
Date: December 4, 2025

Overview

This episode dives deep into recent shifts in the U.S. electorate, examining special election results, turnout trends, and the potential outlook for the 2026 midterms. Using statistics, historical context, and a touch of humor, Ryan Grusky analyzes the numbers behind Democratic and Republican performances, discusses the limits of future “wave” elections, and answers listener questions about key issues such as social inflation and the role of abortion in recent voting patterns.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Special Election Trends and What They Reveal (02:29–09:06)

• Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District Special Election:

  • Republican Matthew Van Epps won by 9 points (54–45) over Democrat Afton Ben.
  • This is notable as Trump previously carried the district by 22 points, signaling a 13-point swing toward Democrats.
  • Ryan Grusky:

    “It spells what's coming up in the future and what's been going on... and where voter sentiment is.” (03:21)

  • Despite traditionally strong Republican advantage, Democrat voter turnout is high and independents are shifting due to economic worries—especially inflation and the job market.

• Broader Special Election Data:

  • Since 2024, Democrats have overperformed by an average of 11 points in 62 special elections—an historic margin.
  • Previous Democratic wave years (2017–2018) showed only a 6-point average swing in special elections.
  • If the midterms were held today, Democrats would likely match or exceed their 2018 performance.
  • However, Republican gerrymandering may help shield many GOP seats from flipping, limiting the true breadth of any “wave.”

2. Gerrymandering and Geographic Patterns (09:06–11:58)

• Ryan emphasizes how effective Republican gerrymandering is at consolidating their hold over certain states (e.g., Texas, North Carolina, Florida).
• Democratic overperformance is concentrated in strongholds like Nashville (which swung 20 points more Democratic than in 2024), but this may not be enough to flip lean-GOP exurbs and suburban districts.
• “If they were fine in Virginia, which was a catastrophic turnout for Republicans, I think they'll be fine nationwide.” (11:20)

3. What Constitutes a “Wave Election”? (15:47–24:39)

• Subjectivity of ‘Wave’ Definition:

  • A wave is defined as a net change of two dozen seats or more.
  • Only four such waves occurred in the last two decades: 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2018.

• Evolving Turnout and Realignments:

  • Trump’s rise increased midterm turnout scale from ~35% to as high as 55% in some states.

  • Traditional understanding of seat swings is hampered by decreased ticket splitting and “settling” of partisanship, making huge waves less likely in future cycles.

    "Those types of elections where parties win dozens of seats... are becoming increasingly rare." (16:14)

• Geographic Realignment:

  • Once-competitive districts in the South and Midwest for Democrats (e.g., Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama) are now solidly GOP, limiting Republican losses and Democratic pickup potential.

    “Most of Arkansas had a Democratic congressman... That was very normal for decades until finally those voters... said, ‘Why do I have a Democratic congressman?’” (18:10)

4. If the 2026 Election Follows Recent Patterns (15:47–24:39)

• Ryan plays out scenarios based on historic “wave” margins:
  • Democratic Wave (+8 margin):
    • Democrats win about 230 seats to GOP’s 204. Gains mainly in the Midwest, New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Very few pickups in gerrymandered states like Florida and Texas.
  • Republican Wave (+8 margin):
    • Republicans could theoretically gain up to 53 seats, including in heavily gerrymandered or closely-divided Hispanic districts.
    • “I don’t foresee a Tea Party-style 60-seat wave even in a great year happening again..." (23:40)
  • Limiting Factors:
    • Modern gerrymandering and realignment mean waves affect a narrower band of swing districts; most seats are increasingly locked in for one party.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Spotify Age Guess Humor:
  Ryan opens with a lighthearted anecdote about Spotify estimating his age as 68, due to his classic rock taste.

  "68 was kind of rough to get... I might need to just spruce it up with some Taylor Swift or Sabrina Carpenter... but 68 was kind of rough." (02:29)

• On the Democratic Surge:

  "Democrats have overperformed in 62 special elections by an average of 11 points. That's historic..." (04:48)
  "No amount of mid-decade gerrymandering is going to fix it unless—the VRA Section 2 is overturned...even then, it's not enough to stop a Democratic wave from taking the House." (05:23)

• On Realignment and Ticket Splitting:

  "Ticket splitting really slowed down immensely and Republicans made gigantic gains throughout the entire prairie states, throughout the Midwest and throughout the South." (18:24)

• On Future Prospects for Each Party:

  "Democrats have a lot less to work with than they used to...I don't foresee a Tea Party style 60-seat wave even in a great year kind of happening again for the foreseeable future." (23:32)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Special Elections Analysis & Voter Sentiment: 02:29–09:06
• Gerrymandering and District Geography: 09:06–11:58
• Defining Wave Elections & Turnout Changes: 15:47–18:10
• Realignments and Political History: 18:10–24:39
• Exploring What 2026 Could Look Like: 19:50–24:39

Ask Me Anything Segment (28:45–32:37)

Social Inflation and Insurance Increases

• Listener question from Jeffrey Dean: Asks about "social inflation" as a driver of insurance premium hikes.
• Ryan’s response:
  • First time hearing the term; researched and found it refers to claims growing faster than expected due to larger jury verdicts, litigation funding, and negative sentiment toward corporations.

    “Attorney tactics of litigation funding...[are] causing all of our rates to go up. I did not know about the social inflation. I'm going to look deeper into this...” (29:40)

Abortion as a 2025 Motivator

• Listener question from Andrew Zimmerman: Asks whether abortion was a top turnout issue for Democrats.
• Ryan’s response:
  • Deep dive into exit polls and public data shows abortion did not emerge as a main issue in 2025, though some voters are always motivated by it.

    “Abortion never made it as a top issue anywhere...it was cost of living, government shutdown, and just hating Trump and excessive Democratic turnout.” (31:40)

Overall Tone & Style

The show features a data-driven yet conversational tone, mixing hard statistics with anecdote and humor. Ryan addresses listener questions with research-backed answers, aiming for clarity and engagement without partisan bombast.

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive, numbers-focused overview of where the American electorate is headed, showing why big midterm “waves” are harder to come by, how demographic and legal shifts are shaping turnout, and why the 2026 outlook will hinge on just a handful of battleground seats. Ryan emphasizes the power—and the limits—of both parties’ strategies in a nation increasingly sorted by geography and reinforced by redistricting.