It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind America’s Transgender Debate: New Polls Reveal a Growing Political Divide

Summary

Podcast Summary

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind America’s Transgender Debate: New Polls Reveal a Growing Political Divide
Host: Ryan Girdusky (guest host/sub-show: "A Numbers Game")
Date: February 23, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this episode of "A Numbers Game" on The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, Ryan Girdusky examines new polling data that highlights shifting public sentiment and growing political division over transgender issues in America. Focusing on a recent national survey conducted by data scientist Lakeisha Jain, Ryan discusses how opinions on trans-related policies are evolving and what this means for both the left and the right. He delves into the disconnect between progressive activists and the general public, the impact of culture wars, how parties navigate politically toxic issues, and the reaction to the poll from within the liberal community.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Introduction to the Poll and Guest Context (02:36)

• Ryan introduces Lakeisha Jain, a left-leaning data analyst in California, who published a pivotal piece titled The Trans Rights Backlash is Real, using a national survey of 1,003 registered voters.
  • Quote:
    "Even when I disagree with him on his outcome, I... wow, he's not a dummy. He really did the work to come to this conclusion and he's very intelligent." (03:12)

2. Summary of Poll Results (04:30–06:30)

Public Opinion on Key Trans-Related Policies

• Bathroom Bill: 52% support requiring trans people to use bathrooms aligning with their biological sex; 33% oppose.
• Gender Surgeries for Minors: 62% oppose; 27% support.
• Puberty Blockers for Minors: 56% oppose; 32% support.
• Teaching About Gender Identity in Schools: 53% oppose; 37% support.
• K-12 Trans Athletes Competing by Birth Sex: 60% support; 25% oppose.
• Non-discrimination in Housing/Hiring: The only major trans-positive response—63% support banning discrimination; 25% oppose.

Partisan Differences

• Trump Voters: Overwhelmingly against trans policy positions except for anti-discrimination.
• Harris Voters: Deeply divided, especially notable on:
  • Trans Athletes: 38% agree they should compete by birth sex, 41% according to gender identity.
  • Surgeries for Minors: 38% oppose; 49% support.
  • Puberty Blockers: 31% ban; 58% allow.

Party Perceptions

• Despite continued high support for same-sex marriage (about 66%), more voters feel the Republican Party reflects their opinions on LGBT/gender issues (39% vs. 38% for Democrats).

  • Quote:
    "Trans issues is not gay marriage, it's not gay rights. This is not gaining momentum over time. This is actually losing it." (07:55)

3. Broader Social and Political Context (07:45–09:54)

• Ryan references a column by Andrew Sullivan arguing that, after major victories for gay rights, non-profits shifted to transgender advocacy to maintain funding.
  • Quote:
    "They picked a new hobby horse. It's the trans issue. It's transing children. It's rewriting human nature over the idea that gender is a binary and efforts to end the gender binary. It all fell apart and it continues to fall apart because it's an issue that's incredibly toxic to voters and politicians." (08:40)
• Discussion of a 2024 Trump campaign ad:
  • Quote:
    “Donald Trump is for you. Harris is for they/them. It was devastating to the Harris campaign. It was the biggest indicator that she was out of touch with ordinary Americans.” (09:32)

4. Warnings to Both Parties (10:22–11:40)

• Ryan cautions Republicans: Voters agree with you on trans issues, but it is not politically wise to run a campaign solely on this topic.
  • Quote:
    “Even though the public agrees with us at large, it is not a high enough priority to make it the central issue of any campaign.” (10:55)
• Compares Republican adaptation on other cultural issues (abortion ban, gay marriage) and encourages Democrats to similarly reconsider their approach to trans policy.

5. Liberal Response to Polling Data & Online Backlash (14:57–18:30)

• Lakeisha Jain declined a podcast appearance due to online threats from the left following the publication of his poll.

  • Quote:
    “He said it wasn't because, you know, I was some evil right winger... it's because he's been threatened so many times by the left for even putting the numbers out there.” (14:58)

• Ryan highlights a refusal among progressives and media to accept declining support for trans issues.

  • Cites notable voices:
    • Eric Michael Garcia (D.C. bureau chief): Blames right-wing messaging for the backlash.
    • G. Elliot Morris (pollster): Dismisses data as “bad faith arguments.”
    • Zachary Ibera (Hill staffer): Suggests rebranding “puberty blockers” as “puberty delayers,” which Ryan criticizes for ignoring scientific risks.
    • Jill Filipovic (writer): Frames trans rights as a new civil rights issue—Ryan rebuts with scientific evidence about weak benefits and potential harms, referencing the UK’s 2024 Cass Review.
    • Noah Smith (liberal commentator): Believes bathroom access is a civil right—Ryan sharply disagrees, citing high-profile policy battles and incidents.

• International comparison:

  • Increasing restrictions on youth medical transition across UK, Sweden, Italy, Finland, Norway, Denmark, France, New Zealand—not just in US conservative states.

6. The Toxicity and Limits of Trans Policy Debate (22:00–24:22)

• Allegations of cult-like behavior and ideological extremism among some progressive parents and activists.
• Acknowledges some parents allegedly express a wish that their children become transgender, seen as an outgrowth of identity politics.
• Democratic politicians’ reluctance to moderate policy positions attributed to fear of online backlash from their own base.
  • Quote:
    “They are afraid of the same online community. They are afraid of their liberal staffers, they are afraid of people in the commentary class who refuse to acknowledge reality and they are too afraid to speak honestly.” (23:41)

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Notable Quotes

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|---------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:12 | Ryan Girdusky | "Even when I disagree with him... he's not a dummy. He really did the work to come to this conclusion and he's very intelligent." | | 07:55 | Ryan Girdusky | "Trans issues is not gay marriage, it's not gay rights. This is not gaining momentum over time. This is actually losing it." | | 08:40 | Ryan Girdusky | "They picked a new hobby horse. It's the trans issue. It's transing children. It's rewriting human nature... because it's an issue that's incredibly toxic." | | 09:32 | Ryan Girdusky | “Donald Trump is for you. Harris is for they/them... that she was out of touch with ordinary Americans.” | | 10:55 | Ryan Girdusky | “Even though the public agrees with us at large, it is not a high enough priority to make it the central issue of any campaign.” | | 14:58 | Ryan Girdusky | “He said it wasn't because...I was some evil right winger... it's because he's been threatened so many times by the left for even putting the numbers out...”| | 23:41 | Ryan Girdusky | “They are afraid of the same online community... They are too afraid to speak honestly.” |

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Key Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamp | |----------------------------------------------|-----------| | Introduction & Poll Context | 02:36–04:30| | Poll Results & Partisan Breakdown | 04:30–08:00| | Party Impacts and Nonprofit Motivations | 08:00–10:00| | Advice for Political Strategy | 10:22–11:40| | Liberal Backlash, Data Scientist Threats | 14:57–18:30| | International Policy Trends & Parental Role | 18:30–24:22| | End of Core Content | ~24:22 |

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Tone & Style

Ryan speaks with a direct, occasionally acerbic tone, mixing statistical breakdown with pointed cultural and political commentary. He frequently uses rhetorical questions and asides and often contrasts practical data analysis with what he frames as ideological dogmatism, particularly among progressives.

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Memorable Moments

• The reflection that support for transgender policy is losing ground even as visibility increases (07:55–08:40).
• The recounting of prominent liberal backlash against a center-left data scientist purely for publishing unfavorable data (14:57–16:10).
• Rejection of the widely held activist hope that “exposure brings acceptance” in the context of trans issues, with polling showing the opposite (09:15–10:00).
• The invocation of Europe’s shifting medical guidelines as evidence that these issues transcend the American right (20:40–21:45).

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Conclusion

This episode examines how the American public—and particularly Democratic voters—are sharply divided on major transgender-related policy questions. Ryan Girdusky’s core message is that, despite activist narratives, public opinion on gender ideology is trending away from progressive orthodoxy, presenting risks for Democratic politicians who follow the party’s leftmost wing. He emphasizes that while Republicans are currently in sync with popular sentiment, cultural issues like trans rights should not dominate their platforms, as they are rarely voters’ top priority. The episode also paints a stark picture of online hostility toward dissenting voices—even on the left—and the chilling effect this has on honest debate.

Transcript

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[Ryan Graduski]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you guys for being here. Happy Monday everyone. A poll just came out splitting the online left in half and I want to talk to you all about it because it shows the level of delusion by activists on the left in this country on certain issues and how they are unwilling to concede something very obvious to the rest of us, especially conservatives, but to the American public at large. What am I talking about? I'm sure you're wondering. There is a guy named Lakesha Jane. I'm pretty sure I'm pronouncing his first name correctly. If I'm not Mr. Jain, please, I apologize. I'm sure you've never heard of him. He's a software engineer out in California, but he also examines and collects political data for a bunch of left leaning publications. I don't know him, but he seems to be, you know, fairly left of center but thoughtful. And even when I disagree with him on his outcome, I wow, he's not a dummy. He really did the work to come to this conclusion and he's very intelligent, whether or not I disagree with him or agree with him. Well, on February 17th, he published a piece for a publication called the Argument called the Trans Rights Backlash is Real. And this is how the piece begins. In 2016, North Carolina's Republican Governor Pat McCroy threw his political weight behind H HB 2, a measure commonly known as the bathroom bill. The law, which required transgender people to use public restrooms corresponding to their biological sex, prompted an immense public outcry that resulted in business boycotts, widespread condemnation, including from Donald Trump himself, and eventually the end of McCroy's governorship. Today, the landscape around the issue could not be more different, as shown by the Argument's latest national survey of registered voters. In fact, 52% of voters now support legislation requiring trans people to use bathrooms corresponding to their biological sex, while only 33% oppose. And so in the piece, he examines polling he did based on thousand three registered voters. That was the sample size. I looked at the overall methodology. It looked pretty good and it was questions related to trans issues. So I wanted to go into it. When asked about how voters feel about the transgender bathroom restriction, 52% of voters supported, as I said, 39% being very supportive, while only 33% opposed. That includes 81% of Trump supporters and 25% of Harris voters. When asked about several policies around trans issues. The numbers were overwhelmingly one sided and it wasn't in a way that progressives like. 62% oppose allowing gender surgeries on minors, 27 supported having gender surgeries on minors. 56% oppose allowing puberty blockers for minors. 32% oppose that policy. 53% prohibited the teaching about gender identity in school procedures. 37% supported it. 60% supported a national law requiring trans athletes in K through 12 schools to compete with people of the sex they were born in. Only 25% opposed. The only issue and the only policy where the pro trans community had a large support was banning discrimination against transgender people. When it came to housing and hiring, 63% supported a bill to ban that from happening. 25% opposed. What's interesting is that while almost all Trump voters have a one sided opinion on the issue, they're all against the trans ideology in almost every case except for the discrimination part of it. Harris supporters were very split. When asked the question about trans athletes In K through 12 education, 38% of Harris voters supported the idea that trans athletes had to compete against members of the sex they were born in. 41% supported having the sex that they identify with. When asked about reassignment surgery on minors, 38% of Harris voters opposed it, while 49% supported it. When asked about puberty blockers, 31% of Harris supporters banned it, while 58% said they should minors should be allowed to have puberty blockers. And even though support for same sex marriage remains high, an issue synonymous with the Democratic party after, you know, two and a half decades of trying to stop it on behalf of Republicans, when asked which party best reflects the issues of the LGBT ident issues and gender issues, a plurality of voters said Republicans actually better identify with them on those values, 39% to 38% being for Democrats, while neither party had 26%. Remember, this comes as support for same sex marriage remains at a 2 3rd, 2 and 3Americans supported. This is an issue. The trans issue is not only dividing Americans away from the Democratic party, but it is a toxic element within the party that they themselves don't even agree with universally. Trans issues is not gay marriage, it's not gay rights. This is not gaining momentum over time. This is actually losing it. And it reminds me of a New York Times column that was written by Andrew Sullivan. He is a, I think he was a former conservative, but he was, he's a gay writer with hiv and he wrote where he wrote that the gay rights movement has basically won every battle they ever Fought for going back since the late 80s, early 90s. They fought on gay marriage and they won discrimination and housing and hiring and, and the end of the AIDS epidemic. But those gay nonprofits, those LGBT nonprofits that fought on gay marriage and discrimination and better funding for AIDS patients, they made hundreds of millions of dollars. And they couldn't let that gravy train end even though they won. All right, the battles are basically over. They should close up shop, all but, you know, a few outposts to do studies. But they won't because they can't stop the money from coming in. It is about the money. So they picked a new hobby horse. It's the trans issue. It's transing children. It's rewriting human nature over the idea that gender is a binary and efforts to end the gender binary. It all fell apart and it continues to fall apart because it's an issue that's incredibly toxic to voters and politicians. The most important ad of the 2024 election cycle was the Trump ad where he talked about how are supporting government sponsored sexual reassignment surgeries for illegal immigrants. And the ad read, donald Trump is for you. Harris is for they them. It was devastating to the Harris campaign. It was the biggest indicator that she was out of touch with ordinary Americans and she was too liberal to be president. And the crazy thing is that progressives, if they took a moment of self reflection, they would realize that this issue is something that they don't even have broad support on in their own party. They would look at this data and say, wow, one in three absolutely oppose most of these policies and only half, maybe 60% of Democrats support them. We should have a reflection. And this all comes. This pushback against the trans issues comes as a larger amount of Americans know a trans person in the life. There are trans celebrities, trans people on television. But unlike when Ellen DeGeneres had her puppy episode where she came out as gay or the show Will and Grace came out, this has not made people more sympathetic to the issue, it has made them less so because they know it is wrong and not beneficial to children. Their targeting of children has made it incredibly toxic. And I need to be clear to Republicans though, who are hearing this information, because the voters are overwhelmingly on the side of the Republican party when it comes to trans issue does not mean you can run a political campaign for office solely based on trans issues. Because even though the public agrees with us at large, it is not a high enough priority to make it the central issue of any campaign. We learned that several times you cannot make the mistake the Republican nominee made in Virginia who only talked about trans issues. You need to talk about education and energy and immigration and re industrialization and AI and yada yada yada. You know what I'm talking about. There has to be a large plethora of issues, but I can tell you that the Republicans that you need not only have a diverse level of opinions, but also Republicans have been smart in how they have approached certain culture issues that they knew were too toxic for the party. Right? Republicans dropped the nationwide abortion ban. They dropped the opposition to gay marriage as part of their platform. And you may think, may just maybe Democrats would have a similar position over the trans issue. Maybe Democrats would learn from Republicans and say, well, look, you know, Republicans moved on certain things because it was too toxic, was too politically unpopular. Democrats should do the same. They won't think again. I will tell you how the left treated the data scientists that published this poll that's coming up next.

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So as I said, Lakeshit Jane put up these numbers showing that there was a broad consensus against the trans issue, including hormone blockers for minors, trans people using bags, bathrooms, other biological sex restrictions in sports. Well, I thought the numbers were fascinating, so I invited him on this podcast and he declined. And he said it wasn't because, you know, I was some evil right winger and they, you know, he can't talk to me. It was because he's been threatened so many times by the left for even putting the numbers out there. And I know, you know, I know what it's like to have an online mob come against you and even send some death threats out. See, progressives have been conditioned to believe that it is impossible for them to lose any support when it comes to social issues. When it comes to the culture war, they're like, hey, you know, yeah, we cut off teenage girls, healthy breasts. We tried to secretly trans kids in schools call them by different names, block kids, natural puberty causing lifelong damage and have a small army of D transitioners who are, you know, screaming how this scarred them for life. But we're really shocked that people are against the trans transgender issues. We're, we're stun that not everyone's on our side. Progressives can't seem to understand that. It's not the public is in step with conservatives, it's that conservatives are in step with the public on this issue. So what was the response the liberal left on the online when it came to what the poll showed? I'm not going to repeat any of the actual threads that legend received because I don't want to give them airtime. But what some of the legitimate people with careers in politics and journals were saying was pretty shocking. The D.C. bureau Chief Eric Michael Garcia said the backlash cannot be separated from the years of concerted right wing messaging about biological males. I guess he's talking about J.K. rowling, you know that insane right winger who has supported socialist candidates her entire life and was received a plethora of death threats over the fact that she says biological sex is real and women should be protected. That hardened right winger probably the most famous person in the world speaking about transgender issues. What about G. Elliot Morris? He is one of the most incompetent pollsters in the country. He was one of the many pollsters but probably one of the most famous when he was working for I believe it was the Economist who said that Hillary Clinton had a 99% chance of winning in 2016 and gave Kamala the Harris the edge in the gave her the edge in the 2024 election. He said the whole thing was based on just bad faith arguments. It's just bad faith arguments. It's not ignore the data. By the way, this data from the that was published in the argument is one of many data points saying the same thing. But it's all just bad faith arguments. Don't look at to it. Retreat to blue sky or wherever the echo chamber you most you know support your supporters from. That's the goal from G. Eliot Morris. One Democratic Democratic Hill staffer named Zachary Ibera. He said we need to change the word puberty blockers to puberty delayers. No Zachary, you're not just delaying puberty and then poof, everything goes back to normal. Puberty blockers create lifelong damage around fertility, bone health, brain and cognitive function, height and there are risk around cardiovascular and metabolic diseases and other health risks. Talking about puberty blockers like it's something you could turn on and then turn off is like saying, you know, we could shut down the economy for COVID 19 and then poof, turn it back on and everything's back to normal. It's not that conservatives are being dishonest about this stuff. It's that progressives are either knowingly or willingly lying about the dangers of trying to stop a child's healthy and normal puberty. Jill Filibot Philip Bockvik I'm slaughtering her last name. Philip Bovic. I believe she's a progressive writer, has a very large social media following. She said she believed the trans right issue is just another civil rights issue and progressives have alienated people by insisting that they follow the science. No, Jill, you know who hasn't checked out the science lately? I know a lot of liberals are very conditioned to believe that the science always justifies whatever their opinions are because they're the already of science, because they're always right with science is what they've been saying since the great global warming pandemic of the early 2000s. But the science is very clear about transgender hormone therapy and surgeries among youth the 2024 CAST review in the UK, a comprehensive independent evaluation of youth gender services concluded that the evidence based for puberty blockers is quote, remarkably weak and inconsistent, showing little reliable improvement in gender dysphoria, mental health or quality of life. It recommended restricting blockers to clinical trials and prioritizing psychological support, leading to a ban of routine prescriptions in England in March of 2024 except in exceptional cases. A 2024 systematic review commissioned by the Society for Evidence Based Gender Medicine evaluate mastectomies for gender dysphoria in those under 26 years old, finding very low certainty, evidence of benefits and highlighting risk. Additional reviews on blockers and hormones are ongoing. A long term US study initiated in 2015 on puberty blockers, this was very famously published in 2024 after the results of the study were so not favorable to what they were hoping for that they held it up for years. They found that no significant mental health improvements after two years in 95 transgender youth, contradicting earlier Dutch research that inspired widespread use. The lead researcher delay the full publication amid political concerns. As I was saying before, the evidence is all on one side and that is why countries like the uk, Sweden, Italy, Finland, Norway, Denmark, France and New Zealand have all been placing restrictions and bans on hormone therapy in children. This is not just Texas and Utah and Florida doing this. This is those socialist countries in Europe that Democrats say is the ideal that we should emulate. They are sitting there and pushing the same exact hormone blocker bans that the Republicans are. Noah Smith, who's another liberal writer who has the basic political instincts of a lion after it's been taxidermied and stuck on a wall, said he really believed that Americans are prepared to grant bathroom access as a civil right. No, no, they are not. And the evidence is overwhelmingly on one side about that, especially after there have been a number of men who for nefarious reasons have identified as women to sexually assault women and girls in bathrooms, including teenage boys who did this to teenage girls. There's plenty of stories out in Northern Virginia, which had an insane school policy regarded this actually kicked off the Republican interest in education was the insanity coming out of Northern Virginia. And there were countless other posts from anonymous accounts or people not worthy of mentioning whose name who you know, named like Shin as a data hustler who said the Republicans were at fault for lying on the issues. Others said it was a flat out lie and pointed to the campaign where Democrats successfully campaigned defending trans issues like the governor's races in Kentucky and Virginia. They were not only talking, they did not run for governor, by the way, on trans issues. They just made it one of many issues. And as I said, in most cases, the trans issue is not the highest priority for voters. They just happen to agree with conservatives when it is discussed. They also said Democrats ceded ground, but that's just not true. Biden was had the most amount of trans visibility of any president in history. I mean, he had, he had transgender people in his administration. He had transgender celebrities campaigning for him. So did Kamala Harris. This is just an utter lie from people who can't stand the facts are not on their side. And I told Lake Shen, I said, I hope you're safe. I hope that your mental health is well. I hope you stay safe. So. And I know what it's like when liberals don't, you know, hear something they don't like, even if it's a joke on cnn. But liberals have fashioned this as the new civil rights issue. Not only do I know what you know, the intensity is like when liberals have to hear something they don't like. I know for a fact that there are some liberal parents that are openly rooting for their children to become transgender. I know a lot of, you know, people like, no one roots for their children to be ostracized. Yes, they do. I know two separate parents who I'm not close with, but I know them through other friends. I you know, they're not in my inner circle who are openly they say it, they hope their children are transgender. They are so deeply embedded into this cult of identity politics of of critical theory, just absolutely brainwashed to the point that you could not help them. You cannot sit there and, and, and I know I just said sit there and I always say I'm not going to sit there. You cannot sit them down and try to rationalize and reason with them. They are not capable of it. They are fully entrenched in this ideology. And the reason why Democratic politicians cannot come to grips with this with the fact that their party has hurdled themselves into an unpopular position that most Americans are not only disagree with, but are increasingly against because they are afraid of the same online community. They are afraid of their liberal staffers, they are afraid of people in the commentary class who refuse to acknowledge reality and they are too afraid to speak honestly. Coming up next is Ask Me Anything.

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[Tara Davis Woodhull]

hey, this is US Olympic Gold medalist Tara Davis Woodhull and I'm US Paralympic Gold Medalist Hunter Woodhull. As athletes, our lives are about having a clear path and a team that

[Ryan Graduski]

you can absolutely trust.

[Tara Davis Woodhull]

So when it came to getting the best mortgage, we chose PennyMac. PennyMac is proud to be the official mortgage provider of Team USA and you

[Public Investing Announcer]

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[Tara Davis Woodhull]

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[Ryan Graduski]

Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me. Ryan numbers game podcast.com that's ryan numbers game podcast.com plural numbers this question comes from Peter Fumo, my, I think, my biggest supporter. He emails me quite a bit. Peter says, can you expand on the warning of the construction industry warning Trump GOP will lose South Texas immigration laws are enforced too strongly. Peter, this is something that the corporate class does all the time. And in fact, when I'll take you back to 2012 when the Republican autopsy was being created about why Mitt Romney lost business interest invested in the autopsy saying we need an amnesty. They lied about it. It was in some book on the 2020 or 2024 election that I read. I forget which one, but it was the first time I'd realized it that they actually openly lied in their publication of the autopsy, that the autopsy never stated that and they inserted it because it was good for business interest. They will always say business interests will always say something that will light that. You know, to light your hair on fire. If you call for any type of regulation when something is harmful, they will call for that. It's the end of the world when you call for any kind of tax issue or any kind of labor issue. So I don't believe them, right? I mean, maybe I'll be wrong. Maybe I will be end up being wrong. I do not think that South Texas, no matter how they vote in this election, because remember South Texas, even though they supported Trump, did not support Cruz, and they didn't even. Areas that did support them support them at a much lower rate than they supported Trump. They're not Republicans yet. But go back to any issue on AI, something I talk about a lot on this podcast. When you talk about AI regulations to protect people, they say. What do they say? We're going to lose to China? You want China to win? Well, no, that's. It's not an if end. Like, it's not an if or like there is gray in this conversation. And same thing about immigration and labor. And that's just, that's just the truth. I mean, they say this. All the fruits are rotting in the street. How many times have you hurt fields? How many times have you heard that fruit is rotting in the field because they just can't get enough workers? If that were true, I mean, it's not true, but we have an H2A visa for farmhand workers that is limitless. You can have as many as you want come in to pick fruit. It's all a lie. I cannot emphasize to you. It is all a lie. They will say or do anything to continue the endless gravy train of cheap labor to the United States. They do not care what happens to the country as a whole. They don't care what happens to the Republican Party as a whole. It's about money. It's very sad, but it is. So Trump shouldn't blink and should dare them say, all right, we'll see. Next question and last one for the episode comes from Derek. He writes. Hey, Ryan, love your show. What are your thoughts on Rupert Lowe and Restore Britain? Seems like they're trying to have a true nationalist populist party and it's outflanking Farage from the right. How would you predict this plays out in the run up to 2029? That's the next election cycle for the UK unless they call one earlier. Unlike America, most countries in Europe you can call an election whenever you want. That's why some elections are three years out, four years out, two years out. But nonetheless, they have a limitation. Until you have to call it. So 2029 is the year they have to call it. Listen, I like a lot of what Rupert says. I don't like all of it, but I don't live in that country. He's very wealthy. He'd have to put some money to recruitment. It's very difficult to have a substantial third party in the uk And I was just talking to my British friends about this. They don't think it's going to be a serious challenge. 1. Nigel is a very unique figure in British politics. Most probably the most important politician in the UK since Margaret Thatcher. I don't. I would argue that piece very substantially that he is the most important British politician since nine since Margaret Thatcher. And Rupert would have to one find competitive candidates. He says he only wants candidates who are not professional politicians. So he has to train them about how to campaign, has to get funding for their campaigns, which there's very strict limitations on funding in the uk. It's not like America where you could spend a billion dollars. But they also have to try and then get responsible candidates who can run real, real races and try to outflank him. It's a very difficult thing. There are local elections happening this year. I would like to see where Restore Britain does as far as building candidates and getting them over the finish line in the local elections. I feel like if he can get some in local elections, maybe could he get up a play in a few House of Commons seats. But I don't put a lot of stake. Listen, starting a third party in Britain is not as hard as America, but it's very, very difficult. The only thing that has caused. I was getting this argument with his British friends and they said, look how long it took Nigel. I'm like, yes, but Nigel has quit politics at least three or four times and that's. And went into private business to earn money and then came back. If he had stayed in it for a very long time, I think maybe he'd be earlier. But Nigel's brilliance is that he's always run the populous wave. When the wave was going out, he was on top of the wave. And the way when the wave was coming in, he was back in private industry and it was viewed that he was the only person, right or wrong. Maybe he was, maybe he wasn't, but that he was the only person who could bring a populist revolution to Britain. So that's what I think, you know, is going on there. They really hate Nigel. Among the establishment parties, even a lot of voters don't like Nigel, but they like the Reform Party. They just think that the politics is broken as is. So I, I wish him the best of luck to Rupert Lowe. He was a member of Reform uk. He was elected on one of the few elected in the House of Commons on Reform uk. But it's going to be very, very difficult. I don't think they will act as a spoiler for the, for either Nigel or the Tories. Yet. Let's see if they can win a few local races. I will treat him seriously if we come out at the end of this year and he's got a few house few local seats either in the in the councils or maybe a mayorship or something like that. But until then, I'm gonna hold my breath and say it's really right now Nigel's race to lose. So anyway, that's the episode. Happy Monday everybody. I will see you guys on Wednesday. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts wherever you get your podcast and I will talk to you guys later. Bye.

[Tara Davis Woodhull]

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