It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Canadian Politics with Jonathan Kay

Summary

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show - Detailed Summary

Episode Title: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Canadian Politics with Jonathan Kay
Release Date: April 24, 2025
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts
Guest: Jonathan Kay, Editor at Quillette
Duration: Approximately 45 minutes

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1. Introduction

In this episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, Clay and Buck delve into the intricacies of Canadian politics with guest Jonathan Kay, an esteemed editor at Quillette. The discussion centers around the recent Canadian election, examining the numerical trends and political shifts that have reshaped the nation's landscape over the past decade.

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2. Justin Trudeau’s Tenure and Mass Immigration

Jonathan Kay provides a comprehensive overview of Justin Trudeau's decade-long leadership. Trudeau has been Canada's longest-serving Prime Minister since the early 20th century, significantly impacting the country's demographics and economy through aggressive immigration policies.

• Population Growth: Under Trudeau, Canada's population grew from approximately 36 million to 41.5 million, a substantial increase compared to the U.S., which added about 25 million during the same period. This equates to a sharp rise in immigration rates, driven by Trudeau's policy of "pedal to the metal" immigration.

  "Justin Trudeau has been the prime minister of Canada for a decade longer than any American president except for Franklin Roosevelt." [03:00]

• Demographic Shifts: The influx of over 5.5 million immigrants transformed Canada’s racial makeup. The white population decreased from 73% in 2016 to 68.5% in 2021, with significant increases in Southeast Asian, Chinese, Black, Filipino, Arab, Latino, and West Asian populations.

  "Visible minority population grew from 19% in 2011 to 26.5% now." [06:45]

• Economic and Social Strain: The surge in population has strained Canada's resources, particularly in housing and healthcare. Home prices soared by over 50%, and the healthcare system struggled with increasing wait times—from 18.3 weeks in 2015 to over 30 weeks in 2024.

  "The median wait time between referral by a general practitioner and receiving treatment in 2015 in Canada was 18.3 weeks, which is still, in American terms, it's a very long time. In 2024, it's over 30 weeks." [09:15]

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3. Trudeau’s Resignation and Leadership Transition

Facing plummeting approval ratings due to the adverse effects of mass immigration and strained public services, Trudeau announced his resignation. This leadership change was pivotal in altering the Liberal Party's fortunes.

• Leadership Change: Mark Carney, a respected economist and former Governor of the Bank of Canada, succeeded Trudeau. Carney's more moderate stance resonated with Canadians, especially as he distanced himself from Trudeau's controversial policies.

  "He looks like you would kind of expect a Canadian Prime Minister to look very, you know, he's very, cuts a dashing figure but also eminently forgettable." [17:10]

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4. Influence of Donald Trump’s Rhetoric

Unexpectedly, U.S. President Donald Trump’s provocative comments about annexing Canada and labeling Trudeau as 'governor' galvanized Canadian voters. This external pressure unified the electorate in support of Carney and the Liberal Party as a counter-response to perceived U.S. hostility.

"President Donald Trump started talking about annexing the country, referring to Trudeau as the governor instead of the Prime Minister, and openly speaking about turning to our 51st state." [22:00]

• Public Reaction: Trump's rhetoric acted as a catalyst, rallying Canadians to support their current leadership against external threats, thereby boosting Carney's popularity and diminishing the Conservative Party's standing.

  "The population rallied behind Prime Minister Carney, almost as a middle finger to Trump and the broader Conservative movement here." [24:30]

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5. Conservative Party’s Performance and Election Prospects

Initially facing a significant deficit, the Conservative Party experienced a remarkable turnaround, narrowing their polling numbers from a 25-point lead in December 2025 to a potential loss by only 2-6 points. This shift is attributed to several factors:

• Leadership Dynamics: Polyvar, the head of the Conservative Party, struggled to regain momentum amid Trump's interference and public discontent with Trudeau's predecessor.

  "Polyvar's lead fell from 25 points in December 2025 to a deficit of losing by 2 to 6 points in most polls." [26:00]

• Voter Sentiment: Despite the Conservatives' attempts to reposition themselves, the ongoing external pressures and the public’s response to Trump's rhetoric have favored the Liberal Party's resurgence.

  "The Conservatives have only led in two polls since Carney took over as prime minister on March 14." [28:10]

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6. Regional Dynamics in Canadian Politics

Jonathan Kay highlights the unique regional influences within Canada that shape political outcomes, particularly focusing on Quebec’s distinct cultural and linguistic landscape.

• Quebec’s Role: Quebec remains a pivotal region with its own set of political priorities and parties. The province’s desire for greater autonomy and its unique media environment contribute to the broader national political discourse.

  "Quebec is different because it has its own language and culture. And you know, the equivalent would be like if there's no real equivalent in the United States." [36:22]

• Other Provinces: While Quebec holds significant sway, other provinces like Alberta and Ontario also exhibit distinct political behaviors, influenced by economic conditions and cultural identities.

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7. Electoral System and Party Dynamics

Canada's "first-past-the-post" electoral system plays a crucial role in determining the outcome of elections, often benefiting larger parties and disadvantaging smaller ones due to vote splitting.

"In your riding, there's 10 parties and everyone else wins 8 or 9% of the vote, and you win 11% of the vote. That's it. You win." [17:28]

• Majority vs. Minority Governments: The concentration of power in the hands of the Prime Minister, especially in a parliamentary system, means that the leader's popularity directly impacts the party's success.

  "Politics in Canada is often very personal. It's attached to the leader and if the leader's popular, the fortunes of the party go with the fortunes of the leader for the most part." [16:31]

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8. Insights and Predictions from Jonathan Kay

Jonathan Kay offers nuanced insights into the unpredictability of Canadian elections, acknowledging the complexities beyond mere numerical data.

• Election Uncertainty: Despite favorable polls for the Liberal Party following Trudeau’s resignation and Trump's interference, Kay expresses caution regarding accurate predictions.

  "I have no idea. So every political prediction I've ever made in public since I, like my bar mitzvah, has been completely wrong." [40:47]

• Potential Outcomes: While the Liberals currently appear strong, the Conservative Party retains a slim chance to reclaim lost ground, contingent on polling accuracy and voter turnout.

  "The Liberals are going to win because then the opposite will happen. But like, you know, that's between Trudeau quitting and Trump getting elected." [43:38]

• Legacy of Trudeau’s Leadership: Trudeau's ambitious immigration policies and their ramifications will likely be a significant factor in future Canadian politics, shaping voter attitudes and party strategies.

  "The results of mass immigration at this scale had a deteriorating effect on the life of the average Canadian and Trudeau's approval ratings plummeted." [05:00]

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9. Conclusion

The episode concludes with a reflection on the volatile nature of Canadian politics, influenced by internal policies and external pressures. Jonathan Kay emphasizes the unpredictability of electoral outcomes, urging listeners to stay informed and engaged as the political landscape continues to evolve.

"Politics in Canada is often very personal. It's attached to the leader and if the leader's popular, the fortunes of the party go with the fortunes of the leader for the most part." [16:31]

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Notable Quotes

• "Justin Trudeau has been the prime minister of Canada for a decade longer than any American president except for Franklin Roosevelt." — Jonathan Kay [03:00]

• "Visible minority population grew from 19% in 2011 to 26.5% now." — Jonathan Kay [06:45]

• "The median wait time... in 2024, it's over 30 weeks." — Jonathan Kay [09:15]

• "Politics in Canada is often very personal. It's attached to the leader..." — Jonathan Kay [16:31]

• "President Donald Trump started talking about annexing the country..." — Jonathan Kay [22:00]

• "The population rallied behind Prime Minister Carney..." — Jonathan Kay [24:30]

• "The Conservatives have only led in two polls since Carney took over..." — Jonathan Kay [28:10]

• "I have no idea... every political prediction I've ever made... has been completely wrong." — Jonathan Kay [40:47]

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Final Thoughts

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show offers an in-depth exploration of Canadian politics through the lens of Jonathan Kay, providing listeners with a detailed understanding of the numerical forces shaping the nation's future. From immigration to electoral systems, the episode underscores the complexity and dynamic nature of political landscapes beyond the American sphere.

Transcript

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[Ryan Seacrest]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gradosky. This is episode number 18, and if it's the first time you're listening, welcome. And if you've been here every week, thank you for listening. Again. If you haven't listened before, you haven't done it, please like and subscribe on wherever you're listening. Spotify, Apple Podcast, iHeartRadio app would really appreciate that. And if you can give me a review on top of it, that's just a cherry on the cake. So for those who have been listening, I have worked in politics my entire life. It's the only thing I really know how to do. I was a journalist and a writer for a little bit of time. And then when I was my teenage years, my first job was working at Victoria's Secret selling bras. So if everything goes belly up, that's all I have to fall back on. But I am super excited about campaigns and elections. I follow them across the entire world. And we actually have our first major election since starting this podcast. It's not in this country, but it is in our neighbor to the north in Canada. Yeah, sometimes I too, forget that we have a neighbor to the north, but we do. It's up there. And it's their first election since 2021. And it's their first election without Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the ballot, leading the Liberal Party since 2011. Now, I know there's a lot of drama in American politics, especially since the age of Trump. American elections have been very exciting since 2015. But the Canadian election is full of drama. I mean, Canadian drama. It's not like the Sopranos are Breaking Bad, but it's, well, it's Canada, so it's like a serious episode of Glee. But here. Anyway, it's interesting. And here's the backstory. Justin Trudeau has been the prime minister of Canada for a decade longer than any American president except for Franklin Roosevelt. And under his tenure, he's fundamentally altered Canada on a permanent basis through mass immigration. When he became prime minister, Canada had a population of 35.96 million people. Close to 36 million. Right. Just say 36 million. And by the time he left, Canada's population increased to 41.5 million in proportion to America. It would be like us adding 60 million people during a decade when we added about 25 million. Right. So it's substantially higher than immigration rates in the United States. And we're talking about pedal to the metal Full blown mass immigration. Remember, Canada has a very low birth rate. Canada's official fertility rate when Trudeau took over was 1.6 children per woman. It's now 1.3 children per woman. There's no natural growth in Canada's population. Every generation of Canadians is smaller than the one that came before it. The birth rate is so low that by the end of this decade, even with mass immigration and the alleged, you know, idea that immigrants have so many kids, which they mostly don't anymore, that's besides the point. But even with the immigration, the natural growth that's birth minus deaths will be negative numbers for Canada. Immigration not only increased the overall population, but significantly changed the racial makeup. Canada's white population has shrunk from 73% the year the Trudeau took office in 2016 to 68.5% in their last deck in their last Census, which was 2021. It's much lower than that now. More than 650,000 Southeast Asians, 150,000 Chinese, 350,000 Blacks, 170,000 Filipinos, 170,000 Arabs, 130,000 Latinos, and 100,000 West Asians have moved to Canada. And their overall quote, unquote, visible minority population. That's what they call minorities or non natives. But visible minority population grew from 19% in 2011 to 26.5% now. When I was a kid, it was well less than 10%. So in the lifetime of a millennial, Canada's population has changed significantly in a very short period of time. This massive population growth has put a strain on resources and housing because, remember, while Canada is a large country, one of the largest physical geographic countries in the world, most people live in a very, very small area. The average home price in Canada has increased by more than 50% over the last 10 years. And it's put a strain on the nation's socialized health care. Over the last nine years, when Canada increases population by more than 5.5 million people, they only added 38,000 more people into the medical field. The median wait time between referral by a general practitioner and receiving treatment in 2015 in Canada was 18.3 weeks, which is still, in American terms, it's a very long time. In 2024, it's over 30 weeks, according to the Fraser Institute. Think about what this means for someone in Canada needing to see a specialist. It's quite literally life or death may be part of the reason why they legalize assisted suicide. All the effects of mass immigration at this scale had a deteriorating effect on the life of the average Canadian and Trudeau's approval ratings plummeted. Trudeau's Liberal Party was losing special election after special election, even in safe seats. Right before he announced his resignation, Trudeau's Liberal Party was set to lose the next election by more than 20 points. The conservatives 20 plus point loss would effectively have ended the Liberal Party. They would have held on to less than 20 seats. It'd be like the Republic winning parts of Chicago, Maryland, New York City, Los Angeles, or like the Democrats winning the Dakotas and Louisiana and West Texas. And then two things happen that fundamentally alter this entire election. First, as I mentioned, Trudeau resigned and was replaced by a new leader of the Liberal Party. And current Prime Minister, Mark Carney, who is far less problematic for a lot of Canadians, and a lot of people have a lot fewer issues with him. So it took the pressure off the party when an unpopular prime minister resigned. Kind of like how the Democrats would have lost places like New Jersey and Virginia had Joe Biden sit on the ballot. But he was replaced by Kamala Harris, who still ended up losing by a lot less than what Joe Biden would have lost by. But then another thing happened. President Donald Trump started talking about annexing the country, referring to Trudeau as the governor instead of the Prime Minister, and openly speaking about turning to our 51st state. Then come the trade wars and all the other rhetoric. This sent shock waves throughout Canada, and the population rallied behind Prime Minister Carney, almost as a middle finger to Trump and the broader Conservative movement here. Polyvar, the head of the Conservative Party of Canada. I'm sorry if I butchered his name. By the way, I'll call him Pierre. Pierre's lead fell from 25 points in December 2025 to a deficit of losing by 2 to 6 points in most polls. It's a 30 point turnaround in four months. It is shocking. It's jaw dropping. This stuff doesn't happen. The Conservatives have only led in two polls since Carney took over as prime minister on March 14. And the Liberal Party, that was destined to basically end as a functional party, could win a larger majority than it had under Trudeau in a mere four and a half months. Now the election is set for Monday, April 28, the day before one of the most important days in American history. My birthday. And the Conservative Party could make it or break it. It could come back if the polls are wrong, especially which sometimes they are. A lot of times they are, but we don't know. Stay tuned for my next guest to discuss whether or not the Conservative Party of Canada has the momentum to do it. Be right back at Ameca Insurance, we know it's more than a life policy. 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[Ryan Seacrest]

This week is Jonathan Kay. He is an editor at Quillet and a Canadian. So it's great to have someone on the program to discuss the election. Who's up there? Jonathan, thanks for being here.

[Jonathan Kay]

Thanks for having me.

[Ryan Seacrest]

So as I mentioned before in the show, going into this election, the Liberal Party came back from the dead. They went from a 25 point deficit to a 2 to 6 point lead depending upon what poll you believe. Part of that is Trudeau resigning. Part of that is Donald Trump's rhetoric. Is there something else that Americans don't know about that has really shifted this election in such a short period of time?

[Jonathan Kay]

No, that's pretty much it. This is going to be a really short podcast. So look, Canada's system of government, there's not the same level of checks and balances and separation of powers you have in the United States. So as a result, if you have a majority government, as Trudeau effectively did, technically had a minority, but the party propping him up was this left wing entity called the ndp. And it was essentially acting as a rubber stamp. So you have an enormous concentration of power in the prime minister. And if the prime minister is popular, the government's popular. And if the prime minister is unpopular, the government is unpopular. And Canada has no term limits. So the same prime Minister can serve 3, 4, 5 terms in a row. The only limit is getting elected and mortality. You know, like, I mean, you literally, I mean, and sometimes you do you have premiers and prime ministers who really do serve beyond their their ability sell by date. Yeah. And the way things work is, I mean, sometimes you get they lose the popular vote, but they still end up in power because we have maybe depending on how you count them, five parties in most writings vying for votes. So you get vote splitting and sometimes the incumbent will get in with like 30% of the vote. So as a result, you get premiers in the provinces and prime ministers who hang on like they wait too long to quit and to but Trudeau didn't.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Get a majority of the vote, I think in the last election or the.

[Jonathan Kay]

One before that, his first term, he did get a majority and Interestingly, that was kind of the same phenomenon. You had Stephen Harper, who at the time was the conservative incumbent and had won some majorities, but he, by this time, I mean, it happens to every politician. They, they become unpopular, people blame them for all sorts of things, sometimes with good reason. Scandals pile up, they develop like just kind of a, a closet full of cronies that like, they can't seem to get rid of. It just, it happens with, with politicians.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Yeah. In America I can't possibly understand.

[Jonathan Kay]

Except America, I mean, it never happens in the United States. Yeah.

[Ryan Seacrest]

In America we never have a politician who's too old and clings to power for too long and you know, just continues on.

[Jonathan Kay]

Although that swings both ways depending upon if you're red and blue. But.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Oh no, it's a bipartisan thing.

[Jonathan Kay]

Yes, sure, sure.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Mitch McConnell is literally like quote unquote, stroking out in the middle of press conference.

[Jonathan Kay]

Well, I mean, that's the thing. You have like the, the incumbency reelection rate in the United States is so high and especially I think in the House of Representatives that like, I think you've got like what, 20 term guys who just kind of phone it in every two years and. Yeah, and by the way, we have kind of a little bit the equivalent of that in the writings. That's kind of the equivalent of our districts. Anyway, all of this to say politics in Canada is often very personal. It's attached to the leader and if the leader's popular, the fortunes of the party go with the fortunes of the leader for the most part.

[Ryan Seacrest]

And it's a lot like the uk. It's more like the UK than the United States.

[Jonathan Kay]

Sure. It's, you know, it's a parliamentary system. Right, right. And it's not only is it a parliamentary system, it's a parliamentary system in the media age and in the social media age.

[Ryan Seacrest]

So now I want to just preface something for the, for the audience. Canada has a first past the post election system, which means. Is that correct? Am I wrong?

[Jonathan Kay]

Yeah. So the way things were, we don't have like transferable votes or like sometimes parliamentary systems they've experimented with.

[Ryan Seacrest]

It's not like representational like it is in like Germany. Let's say you have, you have to win your respective district as a candidate as well.

[Jonathan Kay]

So there aren't party lists sometimes. Again, every system is different where like, you know, you might have some candidates elected on the basis of a party list and others represent geographical writings. Canada is very simple. It's in your writing. There are more than 300318 at one point. I think they added a few more. But the idea is that in your riding, there's 10 parties and everyone else wins 8 or 9% of the vote, and you win 11% of the vote. That's it. You win. Yeah. And again, another subplot. You have a lot of especially younger political activists who want proportional representation, which actually Trudeau promised last time around and then forgot about. Anyway, I keep tripping over myself on tangents, but the long and short of it, the Liberals were very much identified with Trudeau, who was extremely unpopular for a variety of reasons. And so if you looked at the polls a couple of months ago, when Trudeau was still the leader of the Liberal Party and the prime minister, it looked like the Liberals were going to go down to a historic defeat in the 2025 election. He quit. And actually, you know, all the evidence is he didn't quit out of his own volition. He really thought he was going to lead the Liberals into yet another election. But there was what was effectively effectively a revolt in his own caucus. It was a very genteel Canadian revolt where, you know, people would say to reporters, oh, gee, I'm worried about the party under its current leaders. I mean, I love Trudeau to death, but, you know, it's those voters.

[Ryan Seacrest]

As an American, I can't imagine your own party forcing a sitting president or prime minister out of office.

[Jonathan Kay]

So it's. I mean, it's a little different in the United States. In the United States, you really do get, say, you know, congressmen and senators from Party X voting down legislation that's supported by the president, who's also from Party X. Like, there is a little bit more independent minded. It's different, at least in Canada's current iteration of the parliamentary system, where most members of Parliament are expected to be. I think it was Pierre Trudeau's memorable phrase, train seals. They sort of clap at the appointed time and they boo at the appointed time, and they support the leader and they support the legislation. And to the extent that have a.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Quiet revolt against Trudeau was pretty big deal.

[Jonathan Kay]

And it was. Wasn't quiet. I would say it was genteel in the sense that, yes, media leaks were weaponized, but weaponized, like they gave him kind of due warning. Like, at first it was the Quebec. For complicated cultural reasons, the Quebec caucus of all parties tends to be a little bit more independent minded because they exist in their own French media and cultural sphere. And it's at least the revolt against Trudeau to some extent started in Quebec. But people, it's like everywhere else, they live and die by the polls. And the polls suggested that if Trudeau led the Liberals into the next election, the Liberals would get trounced. And as soon as Trudeau quit, it didn't take more than a week or two. You saw Liberal fortune start to rebound, at least if the polls are any guidelines. And the guy who was party establishment, and I think Trudeau himself favored this guy. His name is Mark Carney. This isn't my line, but it's accurate. He looks kind of the way a Canadian Prime Minister would be depicted in a 1985 movie about some kind of fight between Canada and the United States. He looks like you would kind of expect a Canadian Prime Minister to look very, you know, he's very, cuts a dashing figure but also eminently forgettable. His, his campaign has been somewhat vapid, but his campaign has more or less consisted of, I mean he's a very accomplished guy. He used to be governor of the bank of Canada. He went to the UK and had the same job. His name's Mark Carney. By all accounts a nice guy. I actually know a guy who went to, studied economics with him and said he was perfectly decent guy. But his campaign has to some extent, I mean there's three prongs to his campaign. I hate Trump and I'll fight against Trump, which everyone in Canada is saying. He's saying sotto voce. I'm not Justin Trudeau. So if you hate Justin Trudeau, don't worry, I'm not him. And then he's also just kind of borrowed the political demands of the Conservatives. Who are the main opposition. Well, capital C Conservatives. No one, none of your American listeners should mistake them for like actual Conservatives. By American standards. You know, everybody in Canada supports universal health care. We all support rights to abortion. We all hate capital punishment. So like there's, there's no one, there's no mainstream party in Canada that has a platform that a red state American.

[Ryan Seacrest]

There's a populist party in Canada, doesn't ever win anything.

[Jonathan Kay]

Yeah, it's, it's this guy, Maxime Bernier, who formerly was a Conservative. But even him, like, he's, he's sort of a non entity in politics. You know, I think, I think he gets like 2 or 3% of the protest vote, which actually hurts the Conservatives. But he's more, I would say like kind of windbag populist than, than, like, you know, he doesn't have like a, to my knowledge, a well developed policy on, you know, a Lot of the issues that, that traditionally Conservatives would.

[Ryan Seacrest]

So I want to talk about Trump in a second, but I want to stick to Canada and Trudeau, especially for an American audience who sometimes even forgets we have a neighbor to the north. How much immigration under Trudeau fundamentally altered Canada in a very real way. And it was the number one issue for quite a long time. Health care to see a doctor is significantly longer. Home prices have increased substantially as you've increased the population by, I think, 5 million over the course of nine years. How much does immigration still play in this election? Is it still because Pierre, I'm going to mispronounce his name. Pollard. Yeah, his, his. He's not a, he's not a Trump person on immigration, though. He said we need to reduce immigration for sure. But how much is immigration still part of the conversation? As it was, let's say, a year or two ago, and it was seemed to be in all the, like, Canadian.

[Jonathan Kay]

Press, one thing that's happened. I'm going to address the substance of your question shortly, but I'll just say right off the bat, this is one instance, as with the carbon tax, a few other things where one of the things the Liberals have done which have made, made themselves more electable is they just kind of like thrown in the towel on this issue. Even before he resigned, Trudeau, this is a couple of, I guess, mid to late 2024, he recorded this, this kind of odd home video where he said, hey, I get it, immigration levels are too high. I'm like, slashing immigration levels. There's all sorts of sub programs, temporary worker programs and stuff like that. And across the board, the Liberals kind of stole the plank for any opposition party that was opposed to enormous immigration levels. They kind of just renounced their own policy on immigration.

[Ryan Seacrest]

And the Conservatives didn't, didn't then move further to the right. They just stayed where they were. Right.

[Jonathan Kay]

Look, I. So immigration is a funny issue in Canada because interestingly, Trudeau massively expanded the number of immigrants who come to Canada. Even before he took power, I think Canada was immigrating something like 1% of its population every year. So I think something, you know, even in the late Harper years, something like 2, 3, 300,000 that went up under Trudeau, I think some 400,000. It's tricky because there's also temporary foreign workers and refugees in their own class. But you had a country that was immigrating about 1% of its population every year. And, you know, in American terms, this would be the equivalent of like 4 million new immigrants to the United States every year on top of like refugees and people coming on visas. And you know, in American terms it would, there just, there'd be no comparison. It would be politically untenable. And what I think should be said is when this was happening in the Harper years and even the first couple of Trudeau terms, there wasn't a huge amount of public pushback. To some extent it was artificial because it was seen as, it's stigmatized as racist, or at least it once was. Before the liberals renounced their own immigration policies. The liberal friendly media accused anyone who wanted to talk about the issue of being a big racist. Now suddenly it's okay to talk about it. But even among conservatives, there is not the instinctive pushback, the reflexive pushback against immigration that you see in the United States, in part because there's all sorts of industries here that have come to depend on temporary foreign workers. I was just out in British Columbia in a small city called Kelowna, which it's the equivalent of, I don't know, like Aspen, Colorado or something like that. And just like every retail establishment you go into is staffed by temporary foreign workers. And if businesses had to depend like you know, your average McDonald's or Burger King or Tim Hortons or anything like that, like if they had to depend on just native born workers who are citizens and such, that they wouldn't be able to, at least for now, they wouldn't be able to keep their shifts staffed. However, things, as with a lot of things Trudeau did, he just never knew when to say quit and the arithmetic just got insane. And here in Toronto, where I live, which I think there's 4 million people here and I think something like 100,000 or more of those immigrants end up in Toronto every year. I mean, home prices have just gone through the roof because there's only so much land and you've just got tons of people coming in, a lot of them who have a ton of cash. Because for all its touchy feely reputation, Canada's immigration laws are actually very hard headed from an economic perspective. They emphasize English and French fluency, job skills. You get a lot of doctors and engineers who come here. It's a points based system. It's not. Some people may explain a points based.

[Ryan Seacrest]

System to American audience who doesn't have.

[Jonathan Kay]

Like you're an investor and you have a lot of cash to invest, or you have job skills, the language fluency, your secondary schooling. It's essential, the test. Not a specialist in this area, but it's more or less trying to bring in immigrants who will assimilate quickly, be economically productive, and hit the ground running in terms of either starting a business or being employed or buying real estate. There was an investor class actually lost track of what they've done with the investor class status. But you could just come in and say, hey, I've got $10 million to invest in a new business. And it was kind of. You were fast tracked. So it was, you know, Canada's reputation on the world stage is like sort of very touchy feely. And people sometimes assume that everything about Canada's immigration is based on like, you know, the tired, the poor, the hungry, family reunification, like kind of almost quasi refugee type criteria. But that's not the case.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Right. And over that time period, and I explained this earlier, because even though Canada is a gigantic country, physically, most people live in a very condensed area. So that much population and wages have stagnated in Canada. The average GDP per capita, I think was $53,000 in 2015, right before Trudeau took over. And it's still about 54, 55,000.

[Jonathan Kay]

Yeah. The economic performance. Now, I'm not an economist, I don't know how much of this is due to immigration, but I mean, economists themselves will debate the impacts of immigration on macro economies. But I will say that a lot of politicians, including politicians on the right, were kind of conflicted about immigration because there's a lot of, like a lot of my. Here in Toronto, a lot of my friends, if you already have a job and you already own your house, people actually kind of like immigration in many ways. You know, when I, when I go to the medical clinic, sometimes the nurses, they all happen to be from Philippines. If you're looking for a medical specialist, many of them are from India, as I said, entrepreneurs. I was talking to a manager, this place called Kelowna. I had a long conversation with a manager at a Denny's. And one of the things he said is, he said, look, because everybody in his restaurant, it was clear, was from somewhere else. And I said, tell me about the labor situation here. And he said, the thing is, it's cheaper to bring in temporary foreign workers, not just in terms of wages, but he said in terms of, I think the expression he used was employment availability. So they will take any shift, they've come to work. Whereas someone who's a native born Canadian might be like, well, I doing childcare that day. And I have this side hustle on Uber and I'm studying and I'm doing this and I'm doing Elder care and weekends don't work for me. And so he just like, for a variety of reasons, entrepreneurs and employers often have just found it easier to hire immigrants and temporary foreign workers. So, you know, this happens in the United States to a certain extent, too, where you have the business class, if you want to call the, you know, maybe it's part of a conservative constituency that likes immigration and finds it does for them lower, you know, make payroll management easier, which often does mean paying lower wages. And if you're more working class and you don't have a home and you're competing with all these new families for homes and home prices are going up, you're competing for jobs maybe at the lower end of the wage spectrum. You know, this dynamic is, will be familiar to any American. So there's been a huge pushback and that pushback has gradually climbed into the middle socioeconomic rung.

[Ryan Seacrest]

So it, and the wait time for medical care has increased the medical care.

[Jonathan Kay]

So that's its own issue. Since I have been in journalism since the 90s, there has never been a time where people weren't concerned about wait times in medical facilities. I should also say that healthcare, generally speaking, is a provincial responsibility. So now it's muddled because there's Canada Health act. And as with the United States, the federal government is plowing cash into everything, even things that aren't federal responsibilities. So, and also just in general, the federal government often just gets blamed for everything. You know, you talk to people like they want the federal government to like, put a stop their trees.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Yeah, I know. I've done so many campaigns. And they'll sit there and say, you know, I don't like my neighbors overgrown bush. And I'm like, well, this is a.

[Jonathan Kay]

Congressman, so I think I can taunt that, you know, I think my barber, who I talk politics with, because it's hilarious, he wants the next prime minister to get rid of bike lanes in his neighborhood and blame him for that.

[Ryan Seacrest]

So I want to get to Trump because Trump really, despite him being a foreign leader, has had an immense effect on this election. Trump sitting there and talking about annexing Canada and calling Trudeau governor, how has this affected the Canadian voter?

[Jonathan Kay]

So external threats always help incumbents because, you know, we're humans, which means we're, we're mammals, which means we have kin based often tribal instincts. And when there's an external threat, it often provides a bonding moment within our groups and it enhances the status of our leader. I think this is part of our evolutionary psychology. And you saw this on the provincial level. So I happen to live in Ontario. We have a. Again, nominally Conservative premier. And he did gangbusters in the most recent election, which was conducted amidst the most unhinged protectionist bluster being admitted by Trump. And he did great. He happened to be a Conservative, but there was this press conference where he put on a baseball cap that. I forget what it said. It was like, screw you, Trump, or whatever. And it. People were like, yeah, protect us from Trump. And again, he was a Conservative. He got a nice majority, and the Liberals got a boost. Because, again, it's an external threat. People rally around the flag and the Liberal. And by the way, my suspicion is no way to prove it. The reason Trudeau hung around despite his horrible poll numbers is his political instincts were correct, that if Trump won the election, that whatever carbon blob was sitting in the Prime Minister's chair at the time that happened would get a huge bump in the polls.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Or carbon blob.

[Jonathan Kay]

No, because that carbon blob would be painted red and white and would protect everyone from the evil Trump. And honestly, maybe this isn't something conservatives want to hear, but, you know, Trump's election has been, like, absolute rocket fuel for progressive politicians who are otherwise fighting a headwind. Everyone was sick of so many of the progressive causes and was like, okay, finally their day is done. And then Trump gets elected, and it's like, oh, great, now you've got these progressives, you know, donning the mantle of patriotism, not just in Canada, but in Europe, saying like, oh, this is, you know, we're the thin progressive line protecting you from Trumpism.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Well, it didn't really work for the German Liberal Party. They lost a landslide. And that was post Trump.

[Jonathan Kay]

I don't follow German politics because it's so boring, okay? And whenever I think I understand German politics, I talk to someone who's from Germany and says, oh, but that only works at the provincial level. That's right. That's a terrible one. I don't know what accent that was.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Well, in Germany and Austria, they had elections post Trump, and the. The populist did very, very well. And the center right either came in first or second. The population came in first in Austria.

[Jonathan Kay]

I'm not gonna pretend I understand Central European politics.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Okay. Or any European election in Western Europe. I think Portugal's coming up. Portugal's in a few weeks, and I'll cover that. Yeah, I love. I love. I love politics in a way that is probably unhealthy. So I do follow all these minor countries and what Else, not minor countries, but other countries that I know no American otherwise would know, possibly the capital.

[Jonathan Kay]

Of Portugal is Lisbon.

[Ryan Seacrest]

True. The one thing I love about Canadian politics, if I could just wax poetic.

[Jonathan Kay]

No one has ever started a sentence that way.

[Ryan Seacrest]

I know, but the one thing I find. Okay, the one thing I find immensely amusing, I love is Quebec politics. Because Quebec being a former French colony and then becoming a province that had a lot of its own independence and almost breaking away from Canada twice. They, they have their own French Only politicians that really only campaign in French speak French sometimes. When I watch French. Oh, sorry. When I watch Canadian debates, the French politicians will be talking about completely and utterly different things than anybody. And there was this comedian, and I don't remember she was Canadian comedian. She goes, yeah, the Liberal Party will talk about increasing government, the Conservative Party will talk about cutting government and the French politician will talk about reducing the price of cigarettes for children.

[Jonathan Kay]

And it will. So. And by the way, it goes beyond that in terms of media culture. There's TV shows obviously Canadians have never heard of that are like in Quebec everyone stops what they're doing to watch. It's like they have their own celebrity star system. So there are like Quebec celebrities that, I mean, some of the Quebec celebrities escape containment like Celine Dion. But you know, I mean, there are a few commonalities like hockey and stuff like that. But yeah, I mean, so it used to be the case. I think it was Dick Morris, I think Dick Morris gave a speech in Toronto a couple decades ago and said from his knowledge of Canadian politics, regionalism is our race. Yeah, where. But that, that's dated. So that doesn't really exist anymore except in Quebec. But it used to be that Alberta had its own super distinct identity. Newfoundland certainly absolutely had its own distinctive identity. The Atlantic Province. Now that's been diluted a lot because of globalization, immigration, you know, labor mobility, people move to the oil fields, people, you know, a lot of white collar workers moving around the country during COVID just wherever they can get a home and working remote. So. But Quebec is different because it has its own language and culture. And you know, the equivalent would be like if there's no real equivalent in the United States, because even your, you know, your former French speaking areas like Louisiana, at least since, you know, the early.

[Ryan Seacrest]

It's like in almost in the same way that Texans being Texas, being Texan is a personality trait within itself.

[Jonathan Kay]

But it's even, but you know, but that's like, even that. Like I've been, you know, if you go to Austin I mean, Austin, when you're in Austin, you might as well be in Massachusetts.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Like, I mean, you're right to be from Austin. They're not from Texas. Yes, but that's the closest I have because we don't actually.

[Jonathan Kay]

But there's the language thing. It's like, yeah, you don't have to be like, imagine if everybody in Florida spoke alligator language and they had their own alligator celebrities and.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Yeah, truth. I mean, that's not far.

[Jonathan Kay]

That would be different. And like, when election time came, all they would care about is like, you know, what are you going to do about, like, the shortage of alligator food? Like, it's just having your own language and culture go together. Quebec is, Canada is a bilingual country. It's. That's one little quirk we have. Although, weirdly, there's no, you know, people in English Canada, we try and predict this stuff. But Mark Carney, whose French is weak and who didn't want to take part in the French language debate. At first, people say, oh, this guy's going to get clobbered because his French is terrible. But people, I don't know in Quebec, they kind of like the guy. So in English Canada, there's this whole cottage industry of trying to predict how things will play in Quebec, and we always get it wrong.

[Ryan Seacrest]

My last question is if you could, you know, I know what polls say in your gut, as a Canadian citizen, do the Conservatives have a chance to pull it out or really, is it liberals to lose?

[Jonathan Kay]

I have no idea. So I, I, I. So every political prediction I've ever made in public since I, like my bar mitzvah, has been completely wrong. And, and so I wrote a. You're talking to somebody who once wrote a column. Stephen Harper came to visit. This is way back before he was prime minister, like in the, in the, the primordial days of, you know, my early employment at the National Post, it was like, was it 1990s? And he came to visit the National Post editorial board, and I found him, like, very cranky and condescending, and I wrote this 800 word column. I was like, oh, man, this guy thinks he's going to become prime minister. What a joke. Like, and I started, like, ticking off sort of people who I thought would make a great replacement for Harper after his predictable flame out in the election. And then he got a majority government. And this is before Twitter, thankfully. So no one could, like, rub my column in my face and say, I think people were a lot more casual about their predictions before social media because, like, half of your brain is saying, how will this look when it's rubbed in my face when I'm wrong? But I remember at that moment I said, I'm never making a prediction, a political prediction, because literally, if I told you that A is going to win, it means B is going to win by alliance.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Do you think Pierre is doing a good campaign at least?

[Jonathan Kay]

The problem with me, I feel, feel for the guy because his main campaign plank was, vote for me or you're going to get four more years of Trudeau. And then Trudeau says, okay, I'm leaving. And this hole in the air and Mark Carney becomes the Liberal carbon blob. And it's a lot easier to campaign against this guy who everyone hates. I mean, even a lot of Liberals hated Trudeau. He was just kind of, there's something about Trudeau. He was very dated, like this sort of this social justice guy and like, you know, going on these, these like drag shows and like, and I'm like, fairly socially progressive, but even my gay friends were like, you know, he'd go to Pride and act like he'd never been in a Pride parade and just start acting out, like speaking like an idiot. And. And everyone was just sick of the guy, right? The performance, performative social justice crap. And like, sort of his maudlin displays of contrition about Canada's allegedly genocidal history. The whole act grated on everyone. And when the day he announced that he wouldn't be running in the next election was the day that life became difficult for Paul Yevre because that was his big. A lot of Canadian politics is like that. It's just you're sick of one guy and so you vote for the other guy. It even happens in our mayoral elections. Like we, we had this, this blow dried Harvard grad named David Miller as our mayor in Toronto, and when people were sick of him, they voted for this like, alcoholic rube named Rob Ford.

[Ryan Seacrest]

My favorite Canadian politician of all time.

[Jonathan Kay]

Yeah, I mean, he was just like this sort of like YouTube celebrity for all the wrong reasons. And that's kind of what happens, is like they were sick of one extreme, so they go for the other. And Poitier was hoping to benefit from that. And he had every reason to benefit from that. And he was saved by the Liberal rank and file who in their very genteel Canadian throat clearing way, told Trudeau to take a hike, which he did. And if Trudeau had hung on, because there's no real mechanism that the Liberals had available to them to get rid of Trudeau to force the issue realistically. Like, if Trudeau had wanted to run in the next election, he probably could have. And that's what Poit, I think, expected. And unfortunately, he didn't get that. He got someone who had kind of a neutral reputation who then got the benefit of Trump coming in and essentially threatening to destroy the North American economy out of spite and giving a huge shot in the arm to the Canadian left. And I don't want to predict that the Canadian. Well, I guess I do want to predict that the Liberals are going to win because then the opposite will happen. But like, you know, that's between Trudeau quitting and Trump getting elected. That explains 95% of what's happening in Canadian politics.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Well, Jonathan Kay, thank you for being on this podcast. Where can people go to read your stuff, read your tweets, anything?

[Jonathan Kay]

Oh, I'm on what used to be called Twitter on K J O N K A Y, where you'll get more of my mordant, acerbic, say anything bad boy Canadian social media offerings. But then my main gig is Quillette, which is Q U, I, double L, E, double T, E. It's an Australian outlet, but my boss lets me publish all kinds of Canadian stuff, assuming anyone listening to this has any appetite for, you know, usually like Americans call me when something, some huge epic thing happens in Canada, like an election or something. But then I don't hear from them in five years. So it could be that, like, this sort of sates your audience until the next election. But maybe we'll have another trucker protest or something. I don't know.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Great. Well, thank you so much for being on this podcast. We'll speak to you soon and we'll see what goes on on Monday.

[Jonathan Kay]

Go Maple Leafs.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Hey, we'll be right back after this. At Amica Insurance, we know it's more than a life policy. It's about the promise and the responsibility that comes with being a new parent, being there day and night and building a plan for tomorrow today for the ones you'll always look out for. Trust Amica Life Insurance Amica Empathy is our best policy.

[Unknown]

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[Jonathan Kay]

Lenovo.

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[Ryan Seacrest]

Time for the Ask Me Anything segment. You can literally ask me any kind of question. Please email me your questions. It's always great to get more and different opinions on different questions about a broad subject of issues. It's ryanumbersgame podcast.com that's ryanumbers plural game podcast.com shoot me an email over anything and I'll see if I know the answer. If I could research it and give you my opinion. So my question today was As a Catholic, what will be the legacy of Pope Francis and who do you think will be the next Pope? Okay, I am very interested in this question because I am a Catholic, even though I look and act and sound and everything Jewish, and I'm from New York City and I'm a Jewish last name, so people get it confused all the time. But I am in fact born and raised Catholic on both sides of my family. And hearing non Catholics do panels on radio and television and podcasts in the last day and a half or two days since he passed away has been infuriating because they don't know what they're talking about. Most of the Catholics know what they're talking about, but definitely the non Catholics. They've been giving analysis over his. Pope Francis's leadership as changing doctrine and you know, how he altered the Catholic Church and all the rest of the stuff. A Pope doesn't have the ability to change doctrine on his own. That didn't happen. A Pope doesn't have the ability to change the Bible or to change the Catechism on his own. None of that stuff actually happened while Pope Francis was pope. Pope Francis, who I had a more critical opinion of primarily because when there were big issues affecting Catholics in countries that were predominantly Catholic, that were, that were, that would have been a negative media attention story for him. Like when Ireland legalized abortion, Pope Francis was nowhere to be seen. He didn't go to Ireland to campaign against abortion. He didn't do really anything. He didn't take a brave step whatsoever. He kind of let the vote, you know, lay where it is. And I got into a fight. I remember one time with some of my Catholic friends who said, oh, he would have been laughed out of the country. And I was like, yeah, and Peter died on a cross for Christ. I mean, been so what? He would have been laughed out of the country. Who cares? You do what's right, especially if you are a religious leader and a moral leader in the same. I'm trying to be as respectful as possible in the same vein as Pope John Paul ii, who really liked good media and good press. Pope Francis really liked good media and good press and said things that were doctorally untrue and were in conflict with the Church in order to garner positive press. It didn't change the doctrine of the Church, it just got him positive mentions from liberal media. I have a big problem with that as a person who tries really hard to stay as close to the faith as I, as I possibly can. And I don't just go chasing Whatever, you know, the whims of a good headline or a good news article when, when I see fit. That's my big thing. His legacy is changing the College of Cardinals. He really made it much more in the same quote unquote liberal vein as him. It's not like an American liberalism. It says an transfer as easily, but made it much more liberal than a lot of young priests in the Catholic Church or young priests in the Catholic Church, especially from Western countries are much more conservative than people of Pope Francis's generation. Much more a part of the. A believer in the doctrine. And there's a conflict in generations within the priesthood. So that's his ultimate thing, is how he's going to change how he changed the College of Cardinals and how that will affect the Church going forward in the future. Future. That's really his biggest legacy. It's not a sexy legacy, so no one's not. It's not a sexy American news headline, so no one's gonna really be that interested. People who hated him will call him a communist or social warrior. People who loved him will call him, you know, supporter of the poor and the downtrodden, whatever, whatever have you. But really that's really the biggest part of his legacy. Who will be Pope next? I would love it to be Cardinal Sarah. It's probably not gonna be him. He's too old. They really try not to pick someone in his age bracket. He would have been a great Pope though. That would have ever happened. So I don't think it's going to be Cardinal Sarah, which by the way, some people on the right on social media have been saying, oh, it's going to be him. It's not going to Very, very unlikely going to be Cardinal Sarah. He's also way too conservative, I think, for the current college Cardinals. My money, if I had to bet, would probably Cardinal Pietro Parolin. He is probably also butchered his last name like Pierre from Canada. But Cardinal Pietro is basically second in line. He's probably the safest bet, the dark horse. The only one who probably could upset this would be Cardinal Pizabala. That is a person's real name. He is from Italy and his name is Pieceabala. It would be like J.K. rowling writing Cardinal names in Harry Potter. But Cardinal Pieceabala is from Italy, but he is the cardinal for the Middle east and very, very bravely offered his life in exchange for the hostages during the, during the, the war there over Gaza. And that's a very honorable thing that in. And a real, real act of courage on behalf of a carnival like that we haven't seen very often. So that's my bet though. We'll see what happens. I don't know. I don't make any decisions. I don't let the white smoke go from the, from, from the Vatican. Anyway, thank you for listening again this week. I really appreciate it. Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcast. Wherever you get your podcast. We'll see you guys next week.

[Unknown]

For some of us, personal finances aren't just personal. They include a lot more people than ourselves, loved ones, neighbors, the communities we call home, and the causes we hold in our hearts. At Thrivent, we help plan your financial picture with the plan bigger picture in mind. Because even though our business is helping guide your finances, our ambition is to make it mean so much more. Thrivent, where money means more Connect with.

[Ryan Seacrest]

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