It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind China’s Population Collapse, 2026 Election Polls & America’s Census Shake-Up

Summary

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show — "It’s a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind China’s Population Collapse, 2026 Election Polls & America’s Census Shake-Up"

Date: January 23, 2026
Host: Ryan Girdusky (filling in for Clay Travis and Buck Sexton on a Numbers Game segment)
Network: iHeartPodcasts

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Overview:

In this episode, Ryan Girdusky dives deep into three interconnected demographic topics driving headlines and policy debates:

1. The catastrophic population decline in China and its global implications
2. New polling data ahead of the 2026 election, including voter priorities and partisan divides over family
3. The latest U.S. Census findings and how domestic and international migration is shifting America's population and political landscape

Girdusky combines polling analysis, demographic trends, first-hand anecdotes, and audience Q&A to illuminate how numbers shape policy, politics, and society’s future.

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China’s Population Collapse: Numbers, Causes, Global Ramifications

[02:56–11:40]

Key Topics:

• China’s Fertility Crisis:

  • China's 2025 birth data reveals a drop to 0.93 children per woman—a historic low.

    “People in China are having less than one child per couple.” (Ryan Girdusky, 03:17)

  • The infamous "one-child policy" (1979–2016) led to gender imbalances and skyrocketing abortions, especially of girls.
  • Cumulative effect: 336 million abortions over 40 years, “like the population of the United States.”
  • Lifting of restrictions (to two children in 2016, no limits in 2021) failed to stem the birth rate drop.
  • Annual births fell from ~18 million (2016) to just under 8 million (2025).

• Societal & Economic Effects:

  • Dire forecasts: China may soon have fewer births than Pakistan or Nigeria.

    “China is going to lose hundreds of millions of people over the next few decades. They cannot stop the immense population decline.” (RG, 04:24)

  • Shrinking youth impacts military capacity (“international conflicts is really a young man’s game”) and the domestic consumer base.

• Policy & Public Sentiment:

  • Attempts to deter contraception (13% tax on condoms and contraceptive drugs) are met with “indifference.”

• Comparative Global Fertility & Security:

  • India, Pakistan, and Nigeria now lead in baby booms; Africa projected to become the global demographic engine.
  • Western Europe and US: birth rates stagnant or shrinking—raising “fundamental questions over who leads the world.”
  • Migration pressures: what happens when growth is concentrated in the Global South?
  • Girdusky’s reflection on government policy:

    “I have a belief that the USSR used to tax childlessness.”

    • Suggests Western governments erred by not tying pensions/retirement benefits to having children (i.e., replacement taxpayers).

• Broader Implications:

  • Concerns about innovation and the “loss” of potential inventors and entrepreneurs as birth rates fall in historically productive regions of the world.

    “What happens when those future inventors and thinkers and economists and, you know, brilliant businessmen are never born?” (RG, 08:23)

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2026 Election Polls: Approval Ratings, Key Issues & the Partisan Baby Gap

[14:51–29:54]

Polling Summaries:

• Emerson Poll:

  • Only Marco Rubio (+2) and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett (+1) maintain net positive ratings among Trump officials.
  • Trump’s disapproval: 51%; approval: 43%.
  • Democrats lead Republicans by +6 on the 2026 generic ballot.
  • Notably, “college educated whites have a higher unfavorable rating of ICE than Hispanics do.” (RG, 15:32)

• NYT/Siena Poll:

  • Trump’s national approval: 40%; disapproval: 56%.
  • 86% of 2024 Trump voters still approve of him.
  • Caveat: sample skews slightly Democratic among “independents.”

Top Voter Concerns:

1. The economy (biggest issue)
2. Immigration
3. President Trump (as an issue)
4. State of democracy
5. Inflation

• Cost of living/inflation is much more salient for minority voters (40% of Blacks, 37% of Latinos) than for whites (25%).

Trump’s Policy Ratings:

• Policies seen as making life “more unaffordable” (51%).
• Severely underwater on cost of living (-30 points); only positives are on the border and deportations (+3 each).

“All this conversation about GDP growth and the stock market is not filtering [into] people’s day to day life. People had the expectation that prices were going to go down, not that just inflation was going to go down, but prices were going to go down.” (RG, 17:57)

• Deportations: Strong support for the policy but not for ICE as an agency—people support the outcome, not the enforcers or their methods.
  • “There is a difference between people being full open borders...and not liking negative images on social media and in the media.” (RG, 19:30)

The Partisan Divide on Family:

• NYT poll question: “If you don’t have children, do you want to have kids in the future?”
• 46% of Republicans said “yes”, compared to 29% of Democrats; among Kamala Harris voters, 47% said “no”, only 25% “yes”.

  “The idea of having children is becoming so partisan. It’s becoming such a partisan issue.” (RG, 21:27)

• Quote: “Families is the difference between Republicans having sex versus Democrats. One’s producing kids, one’s not.” (RG, 22:00)

Electoral Implications:

• Democrats currently lead 2026 House generic by about +5 (NYT) to +6 (Emerson).
• Dems dominate among: women (+16), under 30 (+27), 30–44 (+15), college-educated whites (+21), independents (+15).
• Among Latinos and Blacks, Dem margins are slimmer—closer to Trump’s 2024 numbers than previous Democratic highs.
• Biggest Democratic margin is among those who didn’t vote in 2024 (+15).
• “I hate to be that person who sits there and says, oh, this polling is incorrect...the one thing that I have a little issue with is that the poll found that 20% of the electorate is going to be people who didn’t vote in the presidential election. I think that’s a little high.” (RG, 24:10)
• Girdusky forecasts: “If Trump can claw back to 45 or 46%...Republicans will probably claw back one or two or three points and then they’ll be in a much better place for highly competitive seats.” (RG, 25:37)

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U.S. Census Shake-Up: Internal Migration and Immigration

[25:57–33:05]

State Migration Patterns:

• 24 states had a net decline in American-born population in 2024; heavily blue states dominate the list (e.g., NY, CA, IL, MA, WA).
• Fewer red states losing population; some blue states (NH, ME, DE, VA, CO) gained, but overall trend favors Republican states.

  “Overwhelmingly, Republicans continue to migrate to red states.” (RG, 27:30)

Immigration’s Impact:

• States with shrinking American populations don’t necessarily have shrinking total populations—immigration (legal/illegal) keeps them afloat.
• In 2024, 2.55 million immigrants arrived (larger than many states).
• Top immigrant destinations: TX (~320k), CA (~307k), FL (~299k), NY (~169k), IL (~96k).
• If Trump administration cracks down on legal/illegal immigration, states like CA, NY, and IL may see “population loss or stagnation.”

Long-Term Political Effects:

• Census data will affect redistricting, congressional seat allocation, and likely presidential politics (“the 20s could be a Republican presidential domination decade”).

“We’re going to see how people are voting with their feet...how immigration is changing...and what that does for the next decade.” (RG, 29:07)

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Audience Q&A — "Ask Me Anything"

[33:05–39:48]

Question 1: Can California Ever Turn Red Again?

• If Democrats win the presidency in 2028, policy changes (immigration enforcement, budgets) could slow or reverse seat losses for states like California.
• However, migration of native-born Americans out of blue states is robust; even when Democrats relax enforcement, not all new immigrants settle in blue states.

  “Native born Americans are already fleeing those states in droves...the decline can’t stop, it’s just a matter of how many.” (RG, 34:21)

• Administrative lag and complexities mean structural changes are slow—even big influxes post-2028 won’t entirely erase earlier trends.

Question 2: ICE Recruitment & Local Partnerships

• Listener notes ICE hit new recruitment highs and asks if more agents/local police cooperation will make a difference.
• Girdusky notes public hostility toward ICE explains agents’ need for anonymity, but practical enforcement and employer sanctions matter most.

  “This is why they wear masks ... Because there are psycho activists out there who would target them.” (RG, 37:12)

  • Advocates “worksite raids” and serious penalties for employers to boost “self-deportation” (voluntary return due to no job prospects).

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On China’s Demographics:

  “What happens when those future inventors and thinkers and economists and, you know, brilliant businessmen are never born?” (08:23)

• On Immigration and Public Opinion:

  “There is a difference between people being full open borders...and not liking negative images on social media and in the media.” (19:30)

• On the Partisan Family Gap:

  “Families is the difference between Republicans having sex versus Democrats. One’s producing kids, one’s not.” (22:00)

• On Democrat & Republican State Declines:

  “Overwhelmingly, Republicans continue to migrate to red states.” (27:30)

• On ICE and Enforcement:

  “...Oftentimes there are just instances where unpopular things are...necessary. I mean that’s just the truth of it.” (37:36)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:56–11:40: China’s Demographic Collapse
• 14:51–29:54: 2026 Election Polls and the Partisan Divide over Families
• 25:57–33:05: U.S. Census and State-by-State Population Shifts
• 33:05–39:48: Audience Q&A: Political Impact of Migration/ICE

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Summary Tone & Takeaway

Ryan Girdusky delivers a fact-packed, slightly polemical look at the interplay between numbers—birth rates, poll margins, migration stats—and the direction of nations. His analysis is sharp but conversational, sprinkled with humor and blunt, vivid language. The through line: demographics are destiny, and the U.S., China, and much of the developed world are facing shake-ups whose scale politicians are only beginning to grasp. The future, he argues, belongs to those who have children, welcome immigrants strategically, and adapt quickly to changing population realities.

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For listeners pressed for time: This episode is a whirlwind tour of the world’s looming demographic crises, how polling and migration are shaping U.S. politics (especially for 2026 and beyond), and why who decides to have babies—or to move across a border—may be the most politically consequential decision of all.

Transcript

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Welcome back to A numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you guys for being here again. We had our special announcement about the lawsuit for my non profit, the 1776 Project Foundation. So I didn't get a chance to talk to you on the Wednesday episode about some data. There's so much that came out over the week. It's no joke. I want to get right into it. First of all, let's talk about China. As many of you have heard, because you're interested in the news, China released their 2025 birth data and the numbers were truly astonishing. So China's fertility rate dropped substantially. It's down to 0.93 children per woman. Yeah, 0.93 people in China are having less than one child per couple. Those of you of a particular age may remember that going back in 1979, the Chinese Communist Party was so we're an overpopulation that they limited the amount of children a couple could have to one child. It was the one child policy. As a result, a lot of families were, you know, only trying to have boys. There was a spike in international adoptions for girls, Chinese girls, and there was a huge spike in actually abortions. From 1979 till 2016, China aborted 336 million children, predominantly girls, which I mean, is like the population of the United States. They aborted the population of the United States over the course of those 40 years. Once again, astounding. But in 2016, China realized that they were having a declining fertility rate. It's pretty substantial actual declining fertility rate. So they lifted that policy, allowing couples to have two children. And then in 2021, they lifted that policy. And Chinese couples can have as many kids as they want. Problem is, like many countries in East Asia, they don't want many children. Since 2016, the number of children born in China has declined from 17.86 to 7.92 million. It's down nearly 10 million children over a course of nine years. China is on a trajectory to have fewer children in the next two years than Pakistan or Nigeria. China is going to lose hundreds of millions of people over the next few decades. They cannot stop the immense population decline that they are on precipice to undertake now. What does that mean? Well, on foreign policy it becomes much more difficult for China to dream up long term international offenses. They still have millions of children born every year, but it's fewer and fewer and fewer. And unless they're going to do a Russia or Ukraine style situation where they draft 50 year olds, having international conflicts is really a young man's game. It's going to be much more difficult as their population continues to shrink and birth rates continue to shrink. But think of it also from an economic standpoint. What happens when China's consumer base gets smaller? They lost 3.4 million people this year alone. And it does something to a society. Last year I was on a cruise, a Mediterranean cruise, which was great. I went to Spain, Italy and France. And France has had a higher fertility rate than Spain or Italy for a very long time. A substantially higher fertility rate than than Spain or Italy, about 50% higher. And I noticed when I was in France for the first time at the end of a long week of vacation that I saw kids for the very first time. I had not seen any children in Spain or Italy. And I was like, wow, that is. That's pretty wild. That I just noticed, like, wow. I didn't see children in these major cities that I was in. That's, you know, there was school time, so maybe that was part of it. But there was, I was on the weekends too and I just. You just didn't see kids. That's what's going on in China. There's images out there of Chinese high schools, which are humongous, classroom sizes, and then kindergartens which are basically empty. What also is, is an importance in the shrinking, how China is shrinking as a country compared to other countries. Right. And they're trying to stop this. They're trying to do something. Actually. Last week China put a 13% added value tax on contraceptive drugs and condoms, which was basically met by indifference, according to the New York Times. But I want you to think about the scale of this on a global aspect for. And think about fertility from a global scale. Right. In the last two years, the United States has had more babies than all of the European Union. For two years, India had more babies than North America, Europe, South America and Australia combined. Pakistan has had more children in the last year than any one of those individual continents. So did Nigeria. The continent of Africa is set to eclipse all other continents in the next few years. Asia is still ahead, but they're moving in one direction while Africa is moving in the other. Especially as India's fertility rate also begins to shrink. Think of it in terms of both national security and markets, right? There is this ongoing delusion on the part of Western Europe and the United States that somehow we can police the world. It's like the World War II NATO gang, always getting back together to make things right in the world. How can that happen as all of these nations, including our own, see this trend coming? What will happen to international markets if Europe and America's population is either shrinking or stagnant and Africa's and parts of the Third World and Asia are exploding but not developing a middle class? How many millions of those people will try to come to the United States or Europe or Canada or Australia? What happens when Latin America or China become net importers of workers? You know, if we still need them, given what happens with a. And if. But if. But if we don't need them and we are economically dispossessed. What happens when millions try to come to a country that doesn't have jobs for them? And immigration continues to be a hotly partisan issue. All of these things really matter going forward into the future and they're not being addressed. And that people talk about demographics as if it's only, you know, a right wing kook issue. But it means a lot in terms of the future of the world and who leads the the world. These are real fundamental questions over who's choosing and who's not choosing to have kids. Especially also when you look at which countries produce the most economic success. So much of the world's greatest inventions came from the descendants of very, very, very few parts of Western Europe and East Asia. What happens when those future inventors and thinkers and economists and, you know, brilliant businessmen are never born? That's a real thing that the world is going to see. I mean, and there was there. I bring up this book all the time, but there was not Robert Putnam's book, but the question of national IQ and a nation's iq. It is better to be a stupid person in a smart country than a smart person in a stupid country. And there will be more people whose ancestry and lineage never invented the wheel being born than had the printing press in the year 1500. That kind of thing is going to manifest and become a bigger and bigger issue. So China is feeling, and China's feeling the crunch. Who knows if they can reverse it? I have a, I have a hunch and I've never proven this out, I've never looked at the data behind this. But I have a belief that the USSR used to tax childlessness. But I think a problem for western governments possibly could have been not tying retired and pension programs to children. In other words, saying you can obtain a full pension program if you have two children. I think that probably would have when it started in the 1950s, that would have mitigated the issues. But who would have thought that in the 1950s because everyone was having a ton of children. I think that that's a real reason we're seeing part of this changes that you can obtain a pension program, there's a future taxpayer to pay for it. But as a tax base is shrinking are they're suffering from from that change overall over time with demographics. It's kind of really big ramifications for the future. It's a really interesting data point. Okay, we have a lot more to talk to. We have new polling data that I want to dive into and we have official census data about the last year of Joe Biden's presidency. Immigration and internal migration, all that's coming up for you next.

[Hunter Woodhull]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI, it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like EFTs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not in investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures hey.

[Tara Davis Woodhull]

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[Hunter Woodhull]

Davis Woodhull and I'm US Paralympic gold medalist Hunter Woodhull.

[Tara Davis Woodhull]

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[Hunter Woodhull]

A clear path and a team that.

[Ryan Graduski]

You can absolutely trust.

[Tara Davis Woodhull]

So when it came to getting the.

[Ryan Graduski]

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[Tara Davis Woodhull]

PennyMac is proud to be the official mortgage provider of Team USA and you.

[Hunter Woodhull]

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[Ryan Graduski]

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[Ryan Graduski]

Let'S start with some polling information. Two polling firms, two prominent polling firms came out with polls that I want to cover about the state of our country in the 2026. Let's start with the Emerson Poll. There's not a ton of detail here from the Emerson College poll, but it does find that among Trump officials, only Marco Rubio and Scott Bessett. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett has a positive ratings. Rubio is up 2 points, 43 to 41% favorable to unfavorable. Bessett, who is much less well known, is 36 to 35. The poll finds that Trump's disapproval rating stands at 51% while his favorable is at 43%. Not a horrific place to be in. Not a great place to be in. My only hot take on this poll, judging by the information, this wasn't explicitly written in the poll, but I was reading through the cross tabs. It is very likely that given the information that was there, that college educated whites have a higher unfavorable rating of ICE than Hispanics do. Just my little caveat. The poll also finds that Democrats and lead Republicans in the generic ballot in 2026 by six points. That's a very good lead for Democrats. Now, the poll isn't getting into them is going to get much press, this Emerson poll, because the New York Times Siena poll came out the same exact day on Thursday and New York Times Sienna poll, whether they deserve it or not is considered the gold standard for polling in the media. I mean, they do a good job and to their credit, they're very transparent with what they put out there. So I enjoy them. A lot of other polling firms are not as transparent. So let's go through the New York Times poll. The Trump's approval rating is in bad shape. In the New York Times poll, just 40% of voters say they approve of the job he's doing, while 56% disapprove. I want to point out in this poll, 86% of Trump voters from 2024 approve of the job he's doing. 12% disapprove. So the narrative from the media that you're going to hear and you have heard from people on CNN or from pundits or podcasters say, I know so many Trump supporters who regret their vote. Probably you don't because almost they they're almost unanimously very, very favorable of how they voted and support it. The poll I want to also point out probably over sample sizes, Democrats more than Republicans in the independent sample because they say, which way do you lean? It's a little favorable towards Democrats. So put that as a caveat. When I mention independents in this poll, how they're voting, it's slightly more Democrat than it should be. Okay, question that they say voters say the biggest issue facing our country is the economy, followed by immigration, President Trump, the state of our democracy, and inflation. Minority voters say the economy and inflation is a much more important issue than whites do. 40% of blacks, 37% of Latinos say the cost of living in white and inflation rather are more important than all other issues. Just 25% of whites say the same thing. 51% of voters say Trump's policies have made life more unaffordable for them. 24% say more affordable. 23% say they have done nothing. It's actually not as horrible that poll, given that 47% of the poll are going to say Trump's doing a terrible job no matter what. It's not good for Trump, but it's not as horrible as I think a lot of people in the media are going to say it is. On the economy, Trump is severely underwater, negative 30 points among cost of living as the issue. The only issue Trump is doing worse on than cost of living is the Epstein files. I want you to put that into perspective. All this conversation about GDP growth and the stock market is not filtering people's day to day life. People had the expectation that prices were going to go down. Not that just inflation was going to go down, but prices were going to go down. Trump. And I want to say that's affecting Trump on everything. Right? So people have a bad taste in their mouth because of the economy. They have a bad taste because of everything. Right? Basically everything. Trump is negative. This is a perfect example. Trump is negative 17 on his real Palestine conflict that he ended. There's no reason for him to be negative 17. I mean, I don't think it's a big issue for most voters, period, unless you are, you know, Jewish or you're a raging, you know, anti semite like Ms. Rachel, the kids content creator. But negative 17 just shows how much people are negative to everything Trump's doing. The only issues that he's positive on is the border, which is plus three and his deportation of illegal immigrants from the U.S. he's also plus three on that. I want to point out in this poll they ask the question of deportation several different ways. They ask about ICE and then they ask about deportations as an idea. Deportations as an idea is still overwhelmingly favorable. The idea of Trump deporting Eli legal aliens is overwhelmingly favorable, 50 to 47 in a poll that he is negative 16 on. They don't like ICE. They don't like mass agents. They obviously don't want like what happened in Minneapolis. There is a difference between people being full open bores, which is what the media is going to sell you on, and not liking negative images on social media and in the media. So there's two very different things. If Democrats take this approach that, oh, look, they don't like ice, therefore, let's go back to Joe Biden. Open the borders, flood the country. They're wrong. People want deportations for illegal aliens. They don't like bad images. That is true of everything. That is true of war. That is true of a series of different things. If we go to war, if the United States were to go to war, you know, to liberate, I don't know, just name any dictatorship. Iran. I'm not saying we should. I'm just saying if we did, there may be a boost of people who sit there and say, yes, free the people of Iran. They don't like images of people being shot. Is. And it's not a perfect analogy, but that's what I'm working with. It's just how people feel when they see the actual images versus when they see the idea. They want people deported. The two issues Republican voters are the most enthusiastic by according to the New York Times Sienna poll, deportations and the border. Interesting question in this poll that was also asked. That is not going to get any media coverage at all. But I want to just mention it because it is a good data set about how we view us as people. They asked voters who didn't have children, do you want to have kids in the future? 46%, and I want to put a point at almost everyone over the age of 45 said no. So, so let's take that as a, as a caveat. 46% of Republicans said yes, 43% of Trump supporters said yes, they would like to have children in the Future. That's a plus 15among Republicans compared to those who said no. Among Kamala Harris voters, 47% said no, 25% yes, negative 22 points. Among Democrats, 29% said yes, 39 said no. The idea of having children is becoming so partisan. It's becoming such a partisan issue. Just like a couple of episodes ago, or a while ago rather, we did an episode on religion and I said that Ryan Burgess, who's on the show that day, he said that church is increasingly becoming the Republican Party at prayer. Families is the difference between Republicans having sex versus Democrats. One's producing kids, one's not. I mean that I, I don't want to be crude because, you know, I keep this show very G rated. That is a very, very stark difference in the idea of having kids. One party is flat out saying, I don't want to have children. I don't know what that does 20 years from now, but it is very, very interesting. Now, Nate Cohen from the New York Times had an observation that was worth pointing out. He said that Trump is losing ground the fastest among groups. He won over in 2024, especially 18 to 29 year olds and non white voters. I agree ob the data that he's sitting there and mentioning, but I think worth pointing out is that that's not how necessarily they're feeling about Republicans as a whole. And I want to go into it with the cross tabs over the 2026 election. So this poll asks, who are you planning on voting for in 2026? Democrats lead by 5 points, which is basically what the Emerson poll says, which is at 6 points, Democrats dominate among women by 16 points. Voters under 30 by 27 points. Those between 30 to 44, my demograph points. Whites with a college degree by 21 points and independents by 15 points. Once again, remember, polls slightly over samples Democrats the independent number, but that's okay excuse, a little liberal. Interesting though. Among Latinos, Democrats hold a 16 point advantage, which is much closer to Trump's number in 2024 than Democrats number in 2018. Among Blacks, it's positive. 53, also closer to Trump's number in 2024 Than Democrats number in 2018, or I mean 2016 for that matter. 89% of Trump supporters say they plan on voting for the Republican in 2026. 92% of Harris supporters say they plan on voting for the Democrat in 2026. All that's basically unchanged. Where this infusion of new support for Democrats really comes from, I mean, there's an enthusiasm gap clearly, but what this big number comes from didn't vote at all among people who did not vote in 2024. They favored Democrats by 15 points though. And I want to, I mean, I hate to be that person who sits there and says, oh, this polling is incorrect. The one thing that I have a little issue with is that the poll found that 20% of the electorate is going to be people who didn't vote in the presidential election. I think that's a little high, my own personal opinion, but that's whatever, okay, that's the poll I only said, I mean, everyone's like, oh, I don't believe polling. But we love polls. At least we find them interesting. And I want to say that we should watch the trajectory of how that changes over time. If Trump can claw back to 45 or 46% in the poll up 5 or 6 points, that is going to look very good for Republicans going in the midterms. They could probably claw back two or three points because they're not nearly as far down as, as, as Trump is. The idea of a generic Republican is still more exciting than a generic Democrat or sorry than Trump is. And the margin between Democrats and Republicans is not that bad. It could be a lot worse. And if Trump gets up five points, Republicans will probably claw back one or two or three points and then they'll be much in a much better place for heavily competitive seats. Okay, last other story before we go to ask me anything is the sense of census finally release their data for the 2024 year. It takes the census a very long time to finish data. So we are always behind by, you know, a year, year and a half. In 2024, they found that 24 states lost had a net decline in population among Americans. That means more Americans moved out of those states than moved in them. Those states include New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Louisiana, Nebraska, New Mexico, California, Oregon, and Washington. Lots of big blue states. Among states that Trump won from 2024, only Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, North Dakota, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alaska lost Americans. I know that's like a lot, but it's relatively not when you look at how many of those states Democrats lost. Overwhelmingly, Republicans continue to migrate to red states. And two states that don one, the only states that Kamala Harris won that saw an increasing population of Americans moving there, New Hampshire, Maine, Delaware, Virginia, Colorado. I'm trying to look if I missed anything. Colorado, Virginia, Delaware, New Hampshire and Maine. That's it. That's it. That's not great for Democrats, especially as we go into 25. So those states that saw a net decline among American population didn't see a net decline among overall population. Population. Most of them. Why Immigration, legal and illegal. I need to point out to everybody who sits there and starts talking about illegal immigration. No, it was also very much legal immigration. According to the census, 2,552,193 immigrants moved to the US in 2024. That is bigger than many states in this country. 2.55 million. The states that saw the most immigrants come to them. Number one, Texas, 319,607. Number two, California, 306,867. Number three, Florida, 299,000. Number four, New York, 169,500. And lastly, Illinois with 95,550. Because California, New York and Illinois are so heavily dependent upon immigration. If Trump is truly cracking down on legal immigration, which we'll know in 2027, the 2025 numbers, and more importantly, we'll know in 2028 the 2026 numbers, which will be really informative. Although by that point, obviously the midterms will be over, but redistricting won't. We'll be able to see the effects from redistricting in those years. If those numbers decline, I expect to see some level of population loss or stagnation among those big blue states, especially Illinois, which I think's population. If we crack down immigration and especially illegal immigration, very fascinating stuff. Those numbers will come out soon. And also the 2030 estimates of what states are getting and losing congressional districts will probably be updated in a very short period of time. So I will come back with that. We're going to see how people are voting with their feet, how people are, how immigration is changing legal and illegal, and what that does for the next decade. I've often predicted the 20s could be a Republican presidential domination decade. Just how people are moving around, I will see if that affects the 20, how that affects the House and the Senate. But how people are moving around, that will affect the presidency, certainly. Okay, Coming up next, Ask Me Anything.

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For the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryanumbers game podcast.com that's Ryan numbers. Plural numbers game podcast.com I love getting your emails. First question is Ryan love your podcast. Found out through Ann Coulter, whom I love I think answering me back on the podcast. By the way, she said that she was interested Italian guy here from the mother country, Brooklyn now LA. In your podcast on January 19th you mentioned California and Minnesota, how they could lose House seats in 2032. Theoretically you are correct. Practically we lose the 2028 presidential election and the House in 2026. There's nothing to stop the demon rats. It's a very boomer term, the rats from reopening the floodgates. So tell me, how do we survive? How can California turn red once it was in the 1980s? Cheers Tommaso. Tommaso. Great. Yeah. So Democrats win the presidency in 2028. Let's say it's Gavin Newsom or whomever. They would have basically a year and a half. The way it works is also they have congressional budgeting. So a lot of it. I mean they will stop the enforcement measures, but it would. Yes, in theory, yes, you're 100% right. 2028 is very important because let's say we have a repeat of Joe Biden and 3 million people come into the country, it will probably erase everything that was lost under the Trump presiden. The net effects though of people who are not coming and of population loss because of how Native American American citizens are moving will not be erased. Right. Because they're not all going to move to Minnesota or California. Even when Biden was president in 2021, 2022 blue states did not gain like 75 or 80% of the illegal alien population. They were very evenly divided among the, among, among the states. Texas received a ton. Florida received, North Carolina received a ton. Illegal immigrants tend to go where they know people. And unless it's like West Virginia or Vermont, they tend to know people close to everywhere. Especially now with self deportations happening, those networks of illegal aliens are getting smaller. Also remember the refugee apparatus is declining. It's going to take years. And that's what Biden actually found in the first year of his presidency. The refugee apparatus that was built for decades, that Trump dismantled in 20, in the first, on the first administration which was very successful at, took years to rebuild. So the decline can't stop. It's just a matter of how many. If, like J.D. vance wins in 2028, let's say, and he continues the Trump efforts on immigration or goes a step further, then you're going to possibly see the numbers of California decline from let's say three congressional districts to four or instead of two to three or whatever the case is. It's a matter of like one here, one extra one there. But you are right, it does matter. 2028 is very, very, very consequen reason. But it's not going to stop the decline. The decline has been happening on its own. And Native, Native American, native born Americans, American citizens are already fleeing those states in droves. Last question. Hi Ryan, glad you've cleared your inbox. I know what tough that can be. You have no idea. I have so many times. Wait. Side note, sidebar. There have been so many times where my inbox was so full, I just started a new email address because it was Too exhausting to have to actually go through. And I'll email like my actual connections, either work or family, and be like, hey, this is the new email I'm using. I just can't, I can't deal with how many unread emails I have in this particular email box. So it's rough. Anyway, thank you though because this is dedicated just to the podcast, so it's, it's manageable and thank you. Glad you cleared your inbox. I came across you when you were on Lisa Booth's podcast about four months ago. Lisa's great. Loved your insights on the particular episode and you've been a great following. Hearing your interviews, I heard that ICE has reached their recruitment goal of 10000 new agents with the OBB and actually surpassed that. I also heard recently that Minnesota Min. Local Police have been signing up to be part of ice. I actually didn't know that. I'm going to look that up. Do you think that within the large number moving there that ICE can make a real difference now to win this battle, we need to get illegal immigrations out. With violence these agents endure. I can't help but think that these individuals are going to start getting scared for their lives and begin to retreat. Keep on going with your content. And he said this. This is so funny. Andrew is his name. Andrew said, I will say I have started a count many times you say sit there in all your episodes. I do say that a lot. I, I know I have certain, like, you know, I have. There's certain things that I have noticed. I say that. I try to peel back. I used to say whatchamacallit literally every other word. I have definitely stopped that. But, but I do say sit there. My employees have noticed that too. Anyway, thank you so much for, for pointing that out, Andrew. Yeah, this is why they wear masks. I mean truly, this is why ICE agents identities are. Because there are psycho activists out there who would target them. I understand why they're doing it to conceal their identity and I understand the politics of why that's not popular. Oftentimes there are just instances where unpopular things are not, are not, are, are, are, are necessary. I mean that's just, that's just the truth of it. There are just some times where it is necessary to do things that are unpopular. And I think with these ICE agents identity, that is one of the cases we. They need their identities protected. And yeah, I don't know. I do find it personally hilarious that Democrats are. I think it was Chris Pappas from New Hampshire whose new policy was that he's going to take ICE funding and give it to local police. Apparently funding the police is popular with Democrats in 2026. How times have changed. Andrew and I will do a better job at trying to stop saying sit there. But that, that's, that's the point. I, I agree though. I think that it's really important at this point when we have the ICE agents that we have work them as much as they can possibly work and have effective policies that make people self deport because self deportations is where real numbers are going to excessively grow. And I think we should probably do more, more raids on work sites so that they're an actually and, and, and penalize employers who knowingly hire illegal immigrants. That's how you're going to start changing things in big substantial ways. Anyway, that's the show for today. Thank you guys so much. Come back on Monday. I, I, I think I have a special guest on Monday and I will see you guys then. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe in the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, YouTube, wherever you get this podcast. Talk to you guys later. Have a great weekend.

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