The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show — "It’s a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind China’s Population Collapse, 2026 Election Polls & America’s Census Shake-Up"

Date: January 23, 2026
Host: Ryan Girdusky (filling in for Clay Travis and Buck Sexton on a Numbers Game segment)
Network: iHeartPodcasts

Overview:

In this episode, Ryan Girdusky dives deep into three interconnected demographic topics driving headlines and policy debates:

1. The catastrophic population decline in China and its global implications
2. New polling data ahead of the 2026 election, including voter priorities and partisan divides over family
3. The latest U.S. Census findings and how domestic and international migration is shifting America's population and political landscape

Girdusky combines polling analysis, demographic trends, first-hand anecdotes, and audience Q&A to illuminate how numbers shape policy, politics, and society’s future.

China’s Population Collapse: Numbers, Causes, Global Ramifications

[02:56–11:40]

Key Topics:

• China’s Fertility Crisis:

  • China's 2025 birth data reveals a drop to 0.93 children per woman—a historic low.

    “People in China are having less than one child per couple.” (Ryan Girdusky, 03:17)

  • The infamous "one-child policy" (1979–2016) led to gender imbalances and skyrocketing abortions, especially of girls.
  • Cumulative effect: 336 million abortions over 40 years, “like the population of the United States.”
  • Lifting of restrictions (to two children in 2016, no limits in 2021) failed to stem the birth rate drop.
  • Annual births fell from ~18 million (2016) to just under 8 million (2025).

• Societal & Economic Effects:

  • Dire forecasts: China may soon have fewer births than Pakistan or Nigeria.

    “China is going to lose hundreds of millions of people over the next few decades. They cannot stop the immense population decline.” (RG, 04:24)

  • Shrinking youth impacts military capacity (“international conflicts is really a young man’s game”) and the domestic consumer base.

• Policy & Public Sentiment:

  • Attempts to deter contraception (13% tax on condoms and contraceptive drugs) are met with “indifference.”

• Comparative Global Fertility & Security:

  • India, Pakistan, and Nigeria now lead in baby booms; Africa projected to become the global demographic engine.
  • Western Europe and US: birth rates stagnant or shrinking—raising “fundamental questions over who leads the world.”
  • Migration pressures: what happens when growth is concentrated in the Global South?
  • Girdusky’s reflection on government policy:

    “I have a belief that the USSR used to tax childlessness.”

    • Suggests Western governments erred by not tying pensions/retirement benefits to having children (i.e., replacement taxpayers).

• Broader Implications:

  • Concerns about innovation and the “loss” of potential inventors and entrepreneurs as birth rates fall in historically productive regions of the world.

    “What happens when those future inventors and thinkers and economists and, you know, brilliant businessmen are never born?” (RG, 08:23)

2026 Election Polls: Approval Ratings, Key Issues & the Partisan Baby Gap

[14:51–29:54]

Polling Summaries:

• Emerson Poll:

  • Only Marco Rubio (+2) and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett (+1) maintain net positive ratings among Trump officials.
  • Trump’s disapproval: 51%; approval: 43%.
  • Democrats lead Republicans by +6 on the 2026 generic ballot.
  • Notably, “college educated whites have a higher unfavorable rating of ICE than Hispanics do.” (RG, 15:32)

• NYT/Siena Poll:

  • Trump’s national approval: 40%; disapproval: 56%.
  • 86% of 2024 Trump voters still approve of him.
  • Caveat: sample skews slightly Democratic among “independents.”

Top Voter Concerns:

1. The economy (biggest issue)
2. Immigration
3. President Trump (as an issue)
4. State of democracy
5. Inflation

• Cost of living/inflation is much more salient for minority voters (40% of Blacks, 37% of Latinos) than for whites (25%).

Trump’s Policy Ratings:

• Policies seen as making life “more unaffordable” (51%).
• Severely underwater on cost of living (-30 points); only positives are on the border and deportations (+3 each).

“All this conversation about GDP growth and the stock market is not filtering [into] people’s day to day life. People had the expectation that prices were going to go down, not that just inflation was going to go down, but prices were going to go down.” (RG, 17:57)

• Deportations: Strong support for the policy but not for ICE as an agency—people support the outcome, not the enforcers or their methods.
  • “There is a difference between people being full open borders...and not liking negative images on social media and in the media.” (RG, 19:30)

The Partisan Divide on Family:

• NYT poll question: “If you don’t have children, do you want to have kids in the future?”
• 46% of Republicans said “yes”, compared to 29% of Democrats; among Kamala Harris voters, 47% said “no”, only 25% “yes”.

  “The idea of having children is becoming so partisan. It’s becoming such a partisan issue.” (RG, 21:27)

• Quote: “Families is the difference between Republicans having sex versus Democrats. One’s producing kids, one’s not.” (RG, 22:00)

Electoral Implications:

• Democrats currently lead 2026 House generic by about +5 (NYT) to +6 (Emerson).
• Dems dominate among: women (+16), under 30 (+27), 30–44 (+15), college-educated whites (+21), independents (+15).
• Among Latinos and Blacks, Dem margins are slimmer—closer to Trump’s 2024 numbers than previous Democratic highs.
• Biggest Democratic margin is among those who didn’t vote in 2024 (+15).
• “I hate to be that person who sits there and says, oh, this polling is incorrect...the one thing that I have a little issue with is that the poll found that 20% of the electorate is going to be people who didn’t vote in the presidential election. I think that’s a little high.” (RG, 24:10)
• Girdusky forecasts: “If Trump can claw back to 45 or 46%...Republicans will probably claw back one or two or three points and then they’ll be in a much better place for highly competitive seats.” (RG, 25:37)

U.S. Census Shake-Up: Internal Migration and Immigration

[25:57–33:05]

State Migration Patterns:

• 24 states had a net decline in American-born population in 2024; heavily blue states dominate the list (e.g., NY, CA, IL, MA, WA).
• Fewer red states losing population; some blue states (NH, ME, DE, VA, CO) gained, but overall trend favors Republican states.

  “Overwhelmingly, Republicans continue to migrate to red states.” (RG, 27:30)

Immigration’s Impact:

• States with shrinking American populations don’t necessarily have shrinking total populations—immigration (legal/illegal) keeps them afloat.
• In 2024, 2.55 million immigrants arrived (larger than many states).
• Top immigrant destinations: TX (~320k), CA (~307k), FL (~299k), NY (~169k), IL (~96k).
• If Trump administration cracks down on legal/illegal immigration, states like CA, NY, and IL may see “population loss or stagnation.”

Long-Term Political Effects:

• Census data will affect redistricting, congressional seat allocation, and likely presidential politics (“the 20s could be a Republican presidential domination decade”).

“We’re going to see how people are voting with their feet...how immigration is changing...and what that does for the next decade.” (RG, 29:07)

Audience Q&A — "Ask Me Anything"

[33:05–39:48]

Question 1: Can California Ever Turn Red Again?

• If Democrats win the presidency in 2028, policy changes (immigration enforcement, budgets) could slow or reverse seat losses for states like California.
• However, migration of native-born Americans out of blue states is robust; even when Democrats relax enforcement, not all new immigrants settle in blue states.

  “Native born Americans are already fleeing those states in droves...the decline can’t stop, it’s just a matter of how many.” (RG, 34:21)

• Administrative lag and complexities mean structural changes are slow—even big influxes post-2028 won’t entirely erase earlier trends.

Question 2: ICE Recruitment & Local Partnerships

• Listener notes ICE hit new recruitment highs and asks if more agents/local police cooperation will make a difference.
• Girdusky notes public hostility toward ICE explains agents’ need for anonymity, but practical enforcement and employer sanctions matter most.

  “This is why they wear masks ... Because there are psycho activists out there who would target them.” (RG, 37:12)

  • Advocates “worksite raids” and serious penalties for employers to boost “self-deportation” (voluntary return due to no job prospects).

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On China’s Demographics:

  “What happens when those future inventors and thinkers and economists and, you know, brilliant businessmen are never born?” (08:23)

• On Immigration and Public Opinion:

  “There is a difference between people being full open borders...and not liking negative images on social media and in the media.” (19:30)

• On the Partisan Family Gap:

  “Families is the difference between Republicans having sex versus Democrats. One’s producing kids, one’s not.” (22:00)

• On Democrat & Republican State Declines:

  “Overwhelmingly, Republicans continue to migrate to red states.” (27:30)

• On ICE and Enforcement:

  “...Oftentimes there are just instances where unpopular things are...necessary. I mean that’s just the truth of it.” (37:36)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:56–11:40: China’s Demographic Collapse
• 14:51–29:54: 2026 Election Polls and the Partisan Divide over Families
• 25:57–33:05: U.S. Census and State-by-State Population Shifts
• 33:05–39:48: Audience Q&A: Political Impact of Migration/ICE

Summary Tone & Takeaway

Ryan Girdusky delivers a fact-packed, slightly polemical look at the interplay between numbers—birth rates, poll margins, migration stats—and the direction of nations. His analysis is sharp but conversational, sprinkled with humor and blunt, vivid language. The through line: demographics are destiny, and the U.S., China, and much of the developed world are facing shake-ups whose scale politicians are only beginning to grasp. The future, he argues, belongs to those who have children, welcome immigrants strategically, and adapt quickly to changing population realities.

For listeners pressed for time: This episode is a whirlwind tour of the world’s looming demographic crises, how polling and migration are shaping U.S. politics (especially for 2026 and beyond), and why who decides to have babies—or to move across a border—may be the most politically consequential decision of all.