Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game—The Numbers Behind Christianity in America with Ryan Burge
Host: Ryan Graduski (guest-hosting for Clay Travis & Buck Sexton)
Guest: Ryan Burge, professor and data analyst on American religion
Date: September 25, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode digs into the changing landscape of Christianity in America, focusing on generational shifts, the perception of religious revival—especially after the assassination of conservative figure Charlie Kirk—and the complex intersection between politics, faith, and community life. Ryan Graduski hosts a data-rich conversation with sociologist Ryan Burge, exploring whether there truly is a Christian resurgence among young people and what the underlying numbers reveal about religious practice, identification, and polarization.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Special Elections and Political Mood (03:06–07:40)

• Ryan Graduski recaps recent special elections, noting minimal surprises and emphasizing the outsized importance of local political races for larger political trends.
• Elections reflect the nation's mood, but Republican hopes for a surge in turnout (attributed to Charlie Kirk’s assassination) have not materialized in voting data.

2. The Hope for Religious Revival after Charlie Kirk (07:41–14:00)

• Some expect Kirk's death to trigger a Christian revival.
• Graduski relays anecdotes of people returning to church, noting both the societal and spiritual upsides of regular religious engagement, such as greater charitable giving, stronger families, and increased social cohesion.
• He references reactions by secular commentators to Kirk’s memorial, including:
  • Don Lemon: called it an event of “Christian nationalism.”
  • Thomas Chatterton Williams: felt culturally alienated watching.
  • Dan Williams (philosophy prof): described feeling like an outsider, comparing it to encountering a distant tribe’s rituals.
  • Quote:

    “Watching the Charlie Kirk memorial, I am struck by how extremely culturally distant I feel from that world. Everything about it feels alien—the aesthetic, symbolism, music, rituals, mythology, gurus, ideas and norms.”
    — Dan Williams, [13:31]

• Graduski pushes back, arguing Christian Americans exist immersed in secular culture and feel less alienated than their secular counterparts.

3. Religion, Politics, and Self-Reflection (14:01–19:19)

• Graduski discusses his own Catholic faith and how recent events prompted him to reconsider keeping religion out of public conversation.
• References a Pew Research report (pre-Kirk assassination) which showed a plateau in Christianity’s decline and notable increases in Christian identification among Gen Z.
  • 63% of Americans identify as Christian (similar to 2019).
  • Young men now more likely than young women to identify as Christian—a shift from the historical pattern.
  • Cautions that “identifying” as Christian is not the same as active religious practice.

4. Interview with Ryan Burge: The Data on Christianity in America

Segment Begins: [19:21]

A. Trends in Religious Identity & Practice

• Massive Decline Slowing: Christian identification dropped from 90% to 63% (1972–2020), but recent years show a halt in declining religiosity, especially among young people.

  • “The share of Americans who are Christians declined from 90% to 63% between 1972 and about 2020… The rise of the nones among young people has stopped increasing so rapidly.”
    — Ryan Burge, [20:01]

• No “one-time event” (9/11, Kirk’s assassination) has ever led to lasting increases in American religiousness:

  • “There has not been a single event in the last 50 years that's had a demonstrable and durable increase on religiosity in America.”
    — Ryan Burge, [20:59]

B. Younger Generations: Fewer, but More Devout

• Young Christians today attend church more regularly than their 2008 peers, but the overall pool of young Christians is smaller—those who remain are more committed.

  • “Among young people who still identify as Protestant or Catholic, they're more likely to go to church on a regular basis today... The people who are left are the true believers.”
    — Ryan Burge, [22:11]

C. Religious Identity, Practice, and Politics

• Some young conservatives embrace a Christian identity for tribal alignment, even if not deeply practicing.

  • “If I'm conservative, I have to be a Christian. Especially if you’re white... If you hang around a lot of people in your tribe who are religious, the likelihood is that you at least open yourself up to the idea of religion.”
    — Ryan Burge, [24:47]

D. Religion, Social Trust, and Education

• In the US, higher education correlates with religiosity and church attendance—opposite to Europe.

  • “The people who are most likely to attend church this Sunday are people with graduate degrees. The least likely are those who didn't finish high school.”
    — Ryan Burge, [26:34]

• Church instills social trust; those with lower education tend to drop out of both civic and religious institutions, which raises concerns about their societal integration.

E. Church as Community Nexus

• Churches serve as one of America's last true “mixing grounds” for socioeconomic and demographic diversity.
  • Benefits include increased tolerance and opportunities for economic mobility.

  • “Religion is one of the last economically diverse spaces we have in American society.”
    — Ryan Burge, [31:23]

F. Polarization: Religion Aligns with Politics

• “The God gap” grows: Republicans are increasingly the party of devout Christians; Democrats now represent both non-white Christians and the non-religious.

  • “45% of Harris voters in 2024 were atheist, agnostic, or claimed no religion in particular. It was 12% of Trump’s voters.”
    — Ryan Burge, [34:10]

G. Reluctance to Mix Faith and Politics in Church

• Majority of congregants do not want explicit political messages from religious leaders, regardless of party or denomination.

  • “People want a safe space… I think there's a huge lane in America for, ‘Hey, we're not political here.’”
    — Ryan Burge, [35:40]

• Both hosts recount personal experience with political versus apolitical church communities.

H. Young Converts, Gender Dynamics, and Denominational Change

• No evidence of a statistically significant “male surge” in Catholic conversion, though anecdotal stories abound.

  • “The gender gap used to be women more religious than men… With Gen Z the gap has closed… probably as religious as each other.”
    — Ryan Burge, [38:24]

• Young men are trending more conservative, which may tie into higher religious identification.

I. Which Christian Groups Are Growing?

• Most mainline Protestant groups are shrinking; Pentecostal and charismatic denominations (e.g., Assemblies of God) are growing and are the most racially diverse.

  • “Assemblies of God has grown almost without fail in the last 50 years... They're actually the most racially diverse large denomination in America.”
    — Ryan Burge, [40:44]

J. Rise of Religious and Political Polarization

• Evangelicals nearly monolithic in GOP affiliation. Mainline Protestantism is rapidly shrinking; Catholicism is trending more conservative, especially among new priests and white Catholic voters.

  • “White Catholics voted for Trump in 2024 by over 60%.”
    — Ryan Burge, [45:33]

• Mainline churches’ moderation is leading to their decline and impending irrelevance:

  • “They were sort of moderate politically... but guess what? They're almost gone in America today.”
    — Ryan Burge, [44:11]

K. Ryan Burge’s Work

• Substack: “Graphs about Religion”—deep dives into religious and political data with frequent charts and plain-language explainer posts ([48:22]).
• New book: The Vanishing Middle, about religious polarization and its effects on American society (preorder available; see [43:46-49:15]).

Notable Quotes (by Timestamp)

• On event-driven revival:

  “There has not been a single event in the last 50 years that's had a demonstrable and durable increase on religiosity in America.”
  — Ryan Burge, [20:59]

• On why young churchgoers are more devout:

  “The people who are left over are the true believers... the marginal people have left.”
  — Ryan Burge, [22:11]

• On education and religion:

  “The people who are most likely to attend church this Sunday are people with graduate degrees. The least likely are those who didn't finish high school.”
  — Ryan Burge, [26:34]

• On churches as last social 'mixing grounds':

  “...where else do you get that in American life now? No Elks, no Moose, no bowling league, no Boy Scouts, none of that stuff. So if we lose that, we don't have a great mixing place in American society.”
  — Ryan Burge, [30:07]

• On polarization:

  “The Republican Party is the party of Christianity, particularly white Christianity... Meanwhile, the Democrats... they’re the party of everyone else when it comes to religion.”
  — Ryan Burge, [34:10]

• On what most churchgoers want from church:

  “My job's to preach Jesus in the kingdom. If that's what you want to hear, that's what you're going to hear from us.”
  — Ryan Burge, [36:38]

• On mainline Christianity’s decline:

  “The main line was over half of America in 1972, and now they’re down to about 10% of America, quickly going to go to 5% because they're all old.”
  — Ryan Burge, [44:11]

• On shifting Catholic conservatism:

  “Among priests who have been ordained in the last 10 years, almost all of them are conservative now.”
  — Ryan Burge, [45:33]

Timestamps for Main Segments

• [03:06] – Local election results and political landscape
• [07:41] – The reaction to Charlie Kirk’s assassination and religious implications
• [14:01] – Graduski’s reflections on faith, public conversation, and Pew data
• [19:21] – Start of Ryan Burge interview
• [20:01] – Trends in Christian identification and impact of major events
• [22:11] – Devoutness among young Christians; generational differences
• [24:47] – Politics driving religious identification
• [26:34] – Education, church attendance, and trust
• [31:23] – Church as locus of community connections and social trust
• [34:10] – Political polarization and partisan-religious realignment
• [35:36] – What churchgoers want: apolitical churches
• [38:24] – Gender and religious conversion
• [40:44] – Pentecostal growth; denominational trends
• [44:11] – Religious and political polarization in detail; future of mainline Protestantism and Catholic Church
• [48:22] – Ryan Burge’s Substack and books

Conclusion

For listeners seeking to understand the data behind American Christianity, this episode is packed with research, expert commentary, and thoughtful reflection on how faith and politics shape—and are shaped by—generational change and social trust. The discussion underlines that American Christianity’s numerical decline may be halting, but practice, identity, and political alignment within religious groups are rapidly evolving, fueling higher polarization and reshaping both religious and civic life.