It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Crime Declines with Charles Fain Lehman

Summary

Podcast Summary: It's a Numbers Game – The Numbers Behind Crime Declines

Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
Episode Title: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Crime Declines with Charles Fain Lehman
Date: August 18, 2025
Guest: Charles Fain Lehman (Fellow at the Manhattan Institute)
Host (Filling in): Ryan Gardusky

---

Episode Overview

This episode explores the surprising and significant decline in U.S. crime rates—especially homicides—over the first half of 2025. Through both solo commentary and an expert interview with Charles Fain Lehman, the episode uses data-driven insights to dig into why American cities are getting safer, what contributed to the crime surge of the 2010s and early 2020s, and whether current trends will hold. The discussion covers the impact of changes in policing, structural demographic shifts, viral incidents, and the “Ferguson Effect,” as well as the political challenges cities face in maintaining safety gains.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Polling and Political Context on Gerrymandering

• Timestamps: 03:10–08:15
• Recent polls in California (UC Berkeley) and New York (Siena) reveal that only about a third of voters support mid-decade, partisan redistricting—i.e., gerrymandering—for political advantage, regardless of party leadership.
  • California: 36% support, 64% opposed.
  • New York: 35% support, with few clear majority-supporting demographics.
• Independent redistricting commissions remain popular.
• Host’s takeaway: Politicians can't easily push through unpopular, undemocratic processes, even in deep blue states.
• Quote:

  “Voters in those overwhelmingly Democratic states sat there and said no, because voters overall… support independent commissions. The idea of an independent commission, whether or not it is truly Senate, is overwhelmingly supported by voters.” — Ryan Gardusky [05:20]

2. Crime in Washington D.C. and National Trends

• Timestamps: 08:15–16:43

• Anecdote about a high-profile assault in D.C. underscores the city’s alarming crime stats.

• D.C. cited as the fourth worst for homicide rates in the U.S., with shocking disparities:

  • A Black resident is 97 times more likely to be murdered than a white one.

• Despite D.C.’s ongoing issues, nationwide homicide rates in 2025 are projected to hit their lowest point in 65 years (per FBI).

• The “bad old days” of crime peaked with the Baby Boomer youth bulge and spiked again post-2014, following police brutality protests and the BLM movement.

• Notable Moment: Striking comparison—D.C. homicide rate is “eight times higher than the city of Fallujah in Iraq.” [10:44]

• Key factor: crackdown policies, policing, and demographic change.

• Quote:

  “American crime in America is on its way to a place that we have not seen in living memory for most people.” — Ryan Gardusky [13:47]
  “Rudy Giuliani, for what he did in New York, saved more Black lives than Mandani will in 10,000 lifetimes of social justice BS.” — Ryan Gardusky [12:34]

3. Data on National Homicide Decline

• Timestamps: 13:47–16:43

• Violent crime dropped steadily from early 1990s into 2014—then spiked after the Ferguson unrest and again after George Floyd in 2020.

• But in 2025, homicides are down even in cities with long-standing problems (Baltimore, Philly, New Orleans, St. Louis), and in Chicago and even D.C.

• FBI projects 2025 homicide rate at 4 per 100,000: lowest since the moon landing era.

• Quote:

  "The FBI statistics say that homicide will hit 4 murders per 100,000 people this year—that is the lowest level in 65 years. Lowest since Neil Armstrong walked on the moon, or at least filmed that he walked on the moon..." — Ryan Gardusky [15:55]

4. Expert Interview: Charles Fain Lehman on Why Crime Has Declined

• Timestamps: 20:23–26:08

• Lehman outlines two main reasons:

  1. Burnout Cycles among Offenders: Most murders stem from a small number of active participants whose conflicts escalate until key players are incapacitated or killed (“the ping pong effect dies off”).
  2. End of Pandemic/Protest Era Disruptions: Reopening of schools, jails, and social institutions, coupled with a retreat from “defund the police” policies.
     • Noted shift in political sentiment: big city mayors now focus energetically on public safety.

• Structural Factors: Aging population (crime is “a young man’s game”) and ubiquitous surveillance make crime less attractive or more detectable.

• Lehman warns that crime “waves” have followed viral incidents and police pullbacks, and cities risk cycling back to less safe policies as public concern about crime recedes.

• Quotes:

  “Murder is concentrated among a small number of people ... There's a cycle. That cycle burns out because ... enough of the shooters are dead that the ping pong effect dies off.” — Charles Fain Lehman [20:45]
  "There was a large spike in murder in 2020… downstream of both the pandemic... and of course the defund the police movement after George Floyd…" — Charles Fain Lehman [21:20]
  “We know what works to suppress crime… it's no longer the 70s. The question is: do you choose to use those tools or not?” — Charles Fain Lehman [25:13]

• Hosts and guest agree: Political priorities are shifting as crime recedes, with risks of complacency and a return to “radical priorities” that could trigger the next spike.

5. Demographic Trends: The Aging Society Factor in Crime Rates

• Timestamps: 29:54–31:50

• Gardusky cites Berry Latzer’s The Rise and Fall of Violent Crime in America to explain how society’s aging out of high-crime cohorts (“Murder is a young man’s game”).

• The Baby Boomers contributed to the 1970s surge; now, falling birthrates = fewer young men = fewer violent crimes.

• Acknowledges other factors (e.g., crack epidemic), but demographics are “the overall trend.”

• Open question: Could far-left (DSA) mayors and policies threaten these positive trends?

• Quote:

  "As Charles said, killing is a young man's game, murder is a young man's game. People usually don't start becoming serial killers in their fifties and sixties." — Ryan Gardusky [30:12]

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On D.C. Crime:

  “The homicide rate is eight times higher than the city of Fallujah in Iraq.” — Ryan Gardusky [10:44]

• On Policy and Political Cycles:

  “You never want to chase the Internet, never chase Twitter if you’re an elected official, because Twitter is not real… it does not make up the majority of where people are.” — Ryan Gardusky [07:37]

• On Homicide Rate Collapse:

  "FBI statistics say that homicide will hit 4 murders per 100,000 people this year, the lowest level in 65 years." — Ryan Gardusky [15:55]

---

Interview Segment: Charles Fain Lehman (Manhattan Institute)

Timestamps: 20:23–26:08

• Why Is the Homicide Rate Declining?

  • “Burnout” cycles among a small group of offenders; after years of tit-for-tat violence, the most violent die or are incarcerated.
  • Backlash against “defund the police” led cities to recommit to law enforcement.
  • Reopening after the pandemic helped reestablish social order.
  • “We have the tools” to fight crime now, unlike the 1970s.

• What’s Next—More Decline or a New Spike?

  • As public concern about crime drops, cities risk “being victims of their own success”—voters turn focus to other issues (e.g., cost of living), allowing far-left mayors and less enforcement-focused policies a comeback.
  • Structural trends (aging, surveillance) may keep pushing crime down, but politics could elbow that trend aside.

• Memorable Quote:

  "Crime is down, therefore we can open the jails. That's… my worry." — Charles Fain Lehman [25:52]

---

Demographic & Social Science Takeaways

• Age Structure Matters:
  Violent crime tracks closely with a society’s share of young men. As the U.S. ages and birthrates fall, crime drops.
• Trend Risks:
  Political cycles, viral police incidents, and “Internet governance” can cause sharp spikes when policies swing away from proven enforcement.

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Polling on Redistricting: 03:10–08:15
• D.C. and Crime Anecdotes: 08:15–16:43
• Statistical Big Picture on Homicide: 13:47–16:43
• Guest Interview: Charles Fain Lehman: 20:23–26:08
• Demographics/Serial Killers: 29:54–31:50

---

Conclusion

This episode paints a thorough, statistics-driven portrait of America’s dramatic recent progress against violent crime. It puts the data in social and political context, outlines the drivers (from offending “burnout” to aging to policing priorities), and warns about new risks if cities and voters lose focus on effective public safety strategies. While the news is overall upbeat—projecting the safest America in more than half a century—the episode closes with a cautious note: policy and demographics are always in tension, and history offers no guarantee that good trends will last.

---

Further Reading & Where to Find Charles Fain Lehman

• Find Charles on X (formerly Twitter): @CharlesFainLehman
• Read articles at City Journal: city-journal.org
• Recommended book: The Rise and Fall of Violent Crime in America by Barry Latzer

---

This summary is designed to be comprehensive and clear for listeners who missed the episode or want to reference its main points and key quotes.

Transcript

[A]

This is an iHeart podcast. Riley Herbst from 2311 Racing here and you know what grinds my gears? Waiting for coffee. But instead of counting frappes and lattes, I fire up Chumba Casino. No apps, no fuss, just fun social casino games to pass the time. By the time my coffee's ready, I've already taken a few victory laps. Next time you're stuck waiting, make it entertaining. Play for [e-mail] let's Chumba Sponsored by Chumba Casino. No purchase necessary. VGW Group voidware prohibited 21/ terms and conditions apply Ah, come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.

[B]

Still using yesterday's tech Upgrade to the ThinkPad X1 Carbon Ultra Light Ultra powerful and built for serious productivity with Intel Core Ultra processors, blazing speed and AI powered performance that keeps up with your business, not the other way around.

[A]

Whoa, this thing moves.

[B]

Stop hitting snooze on new tech. Win the tech [e-mail] Lenovo Lenovo unlock AI experiences with the ThinkPad X1 carbon powered by Intel Core Ultra processors so you can work, create and boost productivity all on one device.

[C]

Looking to buy your first car or home? Understanding your FICO score is key to achieving your life goals. Knowing your FICO scores helps you apply for loans with confidence and avoid surprises. With MyFICO you get access to your FICO score credit reports 247 monitoring and alerts on the go. Take the mystery out of your score and get your FICO Score score for free today. Visit myfico.com free and discover the score.

[A]

Lenders use Most support for today's show comes from Sonos. Watching games with the Sonos home theater setup makes everything feel more immersive. The Arc Ultra soundbar delivers incredible surround sound that puts you right in the middle of the action, bringing that stadium experience right into my home. And now I've been trying out the Sonos Ace headphones and like all Sonos products, they perform as good as they look. Sleek design, crystal clear sound and a super comfortable fit. Check out the full [e-mail].

[D]

Looking to build before next spring? Order now with Morton Buildings and get site Prep savings by October 31st. Get ahead of winter weather and save big through the end of October on select projects during Morton Building's Winter Build Sales event. If you need a garage, a stall barn, a storage building for an RV boat or other vehicles, a shop for your farm hobbies or car restoration projects or anything in between, take advantage of this special savings now. Morton Buildings uses quality materials and expert craftsmen with an industry leading warranty to ensure your addition is built stronger, lasts longer and looks better. We'll be working all winter long, but the building spots are limited. With offers this great, why wait? Visit MortonBuildings.com and click Get Started Today. Certain restrictions may apply. Savings offer on new building purchases by October 31, 2025. Building delivery required by April 30, 2026. Contact your local Morton office for more details.

[A]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Happy Monday folks. Hope you had a great weekend. I know Thursday's episode was a bit of a Debbie Downer for a lot of conservatives. I didn't have a lot of great polling information, but I kind of do today and I have an interesting story that is good for everybody. It's not just good for conservatives, it's good for literally everybody who lives in America. So on the polling, two polls have come out, one in California and one in New York, asking if voters in those states support a mid decade redistricting and partisan gerrymandering. You may remember Kathy Hochul and Gavin Newsom in response to the efforts by Governor Greg Abbott to redistrict the state and give Republicans more seats. They threatened to do the same in their respective states, but they do not have the same power in either New York or California because those states have independent redistricting. The polls that had come out asked voters in those states whether or not they would support changes to the Constitution because both those states forbid mid decade redistricting and forbid partisan gerrymandering. You have to go through independent commissions and it is in the state constitution. So you would need a ref. You need the voters to participate in the process to change the laws. It can't just be Gavin Newsom and Kathy Hochul on their own accord, on their own whim. So a poll from the University of Berkeley found that only 36% of Californians supported Newsom's plan and 64% opposed. Making things worse for Newsom is that not a single demographic? Latino, Democrats and it's women. No one supported the idea. Not a majority of anyone rather supported the idea. It was majority opposed by every single constituency. Now that poll did not allow for people to be undecided. You had to decide whether you were supportive or against it. Another poll came out in New York that did allow people to say they were undecided. It was from Siena College and it asked New Yorkers the same question. Do you support this mid decade redistricting? That's partisan gerrymandering 35% of New Yorkers said they supported it, 34% said they opposed it, and 32% were not sure. So it's virtually the same. Only about a third of voters in both New York and California say they support this redistricting efforts. In New York, there was an actual outright plurality or majority in certain demographics that supported it. Democrats supported it. People lived in New York City supported. Jews support it, and young people. But that. That a majority does not make right. It is the plurality by one point, but you would need over 50%. And there was an election just three years ago asking the same question. New Yorkers and New Yorkers said, no, we don't want partisan gerrymandering. So there you go. After weeks of liberals lighting their hair on fire and stomping their feet and saying, we're gonna oppose. Get, you know, Governor Abbott's efforts by gerrymandering New York and California, voters in those states, in those overwhelmingly Democratic states sat there and said no, because voters overall, I bet you even in Texas, if there was a vote for an independent commission, they would probably pass. Independent commission. The idea of an independent commission, whether or not it is truly Senate, is overwhelmingly supported by voters. So that's important. I actually also, by the way, I thought of this. I was thinking of Kathy Hochul and Gavin Newsom and who they are as people. And I have an alternative view to what I think most people believe. I actually think Kathy Hochul. And maybe because I live in New York and I have been there my whole life, and I'm a New Yorker through and through, I have a different affiliation to it than California. I think Kathy Hochul cares less about the letter of the law. Law and the will of voters than Gavin Newsom does. Because Newsom, unlike Hochul, is running for president. Right. Hochul. If Hochul's running for president, you know, if she's the Democratic nominee, good luck. Sounds like she's deaf and she acts like she's crazy. But if she. If she. If he is running for president, I think what Newsom is doing right now is something that I call chasing the Internet. It's something that Tim Waltz did. Tim Waltz, when he was a congressman, was a very moderate member of Congress from Minnesota. He becomes. Becomes governor, and he moves to the far left and he chases these outlandish, stupid ideas from the far left that you see on Twitter, because that's really who governs. A lot of the thought process of staff, they sit there and say, oh, this is what people really want. I'm gonna Follow it and they follow the Internet and it leads you to being called, you know, tampon Tim. It leads you to being thought of as being not normal and that you are a little bit out there and a little bit crazy. It doesn't work out of people's favor. You never want to chase the Internet, never chase Twitter if you're an elected official, because Twitter is not real. It's a good sounding board, but there's a lot of crazy and it does not make up the majority of where people actually are. So polling aside, there is a news story this week that I think has important data and is an overall positive development in our country. Edward Corstein, who otherwise is known as Big Balls, he was the 19, he is the 19 year old doge staffer. He was attacked by a couple black teenagers in Washington D.C. while protecting a woman who I believe was his girlfriend. They kind of said it was significant, significant other in some reports. But while he was protecting her, he was attacked by some black teenagers and very badly beat him. Total side note, by the way, nothing to do with this overall story, but side note, Big Balls comes from a very famous family. The liberals lost their mind that this 19 year old was trying to slash the size of government. So one day I was, you know, up late at night wasting time when I should been sleeping, you know, looking up stuff on Wikipedia either late at night if things are really, really. I'm truly suffering with sleeping, which is a lot of times I'm either on Wikipedia looking up random music discographies of who produced what music when like a complete nut bag, or I'm watching 2024 election reaction videos and playing pinball on my computer. But anyway, I was looking at Big Balls one day for whatever reason. And he is the grandson of a man named Valerie Martinov, I think I'm pronouncing that name correctly. Who was a Soviet spy that became a double agent and spied on behalf of the United States and was executed in Moscow. How randomly cool of a lineage is that? I mean, Big Balls is definitely in the genetics anyway. So Big Balls was attacked by black teenagers and President Trump deputized federal officers to patrol the city of Washington D.C. and have this crackdown on crime. Now I have to say I've Never lived in D.C. but I've been there more time than I can count. And it is a garbage dump. It is genuinely for our nation's capital. There are homeless encampments underneath bridges and in parks. It doesn't feel safe. I've seen shootings in the Chinatown area. I've been followed by crazy people who are talking to themselves and those were not Democratic members of Congress, genuinely crazy people who lived on the street. It is not safe. It is just not a safe city, especially in certain hours. And as of 2023, it had the fourth worst homicide rate in our country, only behind Memphis, St. Louis and Baltimore. I suspect actually they're now, they're higher than Baltimore because they've had a crackdown on crime there. The homicide rate is so bad, it is eight times. The homicide rate is eight times higher than the city of Fallujah in Iraq. So I think anything to change the city's current trajectory is welcomed. I mean, that is just the truth. And I know that liberals are going to lose. I mean, I don't know that they're going to. They have lost their minds, you know, you know who else put troops in their federal capital? Hitler. I don't, I don't know if they actually said that, but verbatim. But I'm gonna assume that someone invoked Hitler to make a comparison to Trump about this move because that's what lazy brain dead people do. But while Washington D.C. is incredibly dangerous still, and especially in international standards, and let's see if you know international standards by the west, it's safer than cities in like Colombia and Brazil, but it is not safer than cities and like Sweden and Canada, the people that we have to actually compete with on the global stage, while it is, while it is dangerous, overall crime in America has become much better. American crime in America is on its way to a place that we have not seen in living memory for most people. So in the story of crime overwhelming Washington D.C. and by the way, the perpetrators of crime are overwhelmingly black. The victims of crime are overwhelmingly black. I looked up the statistic beforehand. A black person in Washington D.C. is 97 times more likely to be murdered than a white American. There were 1,241 black Americans who were murdered in Washington D.C. in the last seven years. There were just 11 white Americans. So anyone who wants to sit there and say that this is white supremacy or whatever, the overwhelming group of people who will benefit from any kind of crackdown in crime are almost always black people. Rudy Giuliani, for what he did in New York, saved more black lives than Mandani will in 10,000 lifetimes of social justice. BS Washington D.C. aside. And that statistic though of crime being higher in black communities is overwhelmingly true across the whole country. Crime is down and we are trending in a way that we have not seen In a decade. I know it's easy to forget because it's been over 10 years, but violent crime was on a steady decrease from the early 90s until 2014. Then the death of Michael Brown happened in Ferguson. The Black Lives Matter movement was born and decades of progress were just like wiped away in the blink of an eye, as is always the case with progress. You know, everything that we have, that we enjoy in society can be wiped away by bad governance. And that's what happened with crime. You'll see a number of studies that say violent crime more or less continue to decrease. A big part of that is because burglaries have massively declined over the last several decades because people have home security systems and cameras and whatnot. But I'm going to focus in on homicides because it is the most violent of violent crimes and it is, it tends to be a hard crime for cities to underplay because there is a dead body. Body. I mean, that is, that is the big thing that really makes sure you can't fidget with the homicide numbers all that much. The homicide rate in 2014 hit 4.4 deaths per 100,000 people, which was a decades low. It was, it was considered a massive accomplishment in 2014. Then obviously Ferguson happens and it rises to 4.9 in 2015. Then it continues to increase through the rest of the decade between 5.5 to 5 murders per 100,000 people. Then Floyd happens and it hits 6.8 in 2020, the highest rate since 1996. And things are just, I mean, there's thousands and thousands of excess deaths. Well, the news are breaking that in this first half of 2025, murder is down, not only just in major cities that have had long standing high rates of homicide, like Baltimore, Philadelphia, New Orleans and St. Louis. Even cities like Chicago, which have a bad mayor, bad governance, and still have a disturbingly high amount of homicides. 501 so far last year. Crime is still declining. Washington D.C. even in Washington D.C. which is a outlier for being high levels. I think 23 murders per 100,000 people, it is still on the decline. Side note, that was very, very funny. There was a New York Times reporter, by the way, named Linda Quinn who chided Trump that she was like. He said DC's had the most murder ever in 2023 and said it's not the most murder ever just since 1997. As if anyone cared like 20 years. Give it a break. All right, so the FBI statistics say that homicide will hit 4 murders per 100,000 people this year. That is the lowest level in 65 years. Lowest since Neil Armstrong walked on the moon, or at least film that he walked on the moon. I mean, whatever your opinion is, but it is the lowest levels in 65 years. There has not been a time basically in living memory that America has been safer when it comes to homicide. And this is a great, wonderful development that we all should be celebrating across party lines. I spoke to Charles Fane, Layman of the Manhattan Institute. I've had him on this podcast before to discuss why this has happened and how it maybe could reverse in the in the coming future, how we could see crime level spike. He's coming on next.

[E]

Life's messy. We're talking spills, stains, pets and kids. But with Annabe, you never have to stress about messes again. At WashablesOfAs.com, discover Annabe sofas the only fully machine washable sofas inside and out starting at just $699. Made with liquid and stain resistant fabrics, that means fewer stains and more peace of mind. Designed for real life, Our sofas feature changeable fabric covers allowing you to refresh your style anytime. Need flexibility? Our modular design lets you rearrange your sofa effortlessly. Perfect for cozy apartments or spacious homes. Plus they're earth friendly and built to last. That's why over 200,000 happy customers have made the switch. Upgrade your space today. Visit washablesofas.com now and bring home a sofa made for life. That's washablesofas.com offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[F]

Hello, it is Ryan and I was on a flight the other day playing one of my favorite social spin slot games on chumbacasino.com I looked over the person sitting next to me and you know what they were doing. They were also playing Chumba Casino. Everybody's loving having fun with it. Chumba Casino is home to hundreds of casino style games that you can play for free anytime, anywhere. So sign up [e-mail] to claim your free welcome bonus. That's chumbacasino.com and live the Chumba Life.

[A]

Sponsored by Chumba Casino. No purchase necessary. VGW Group Void where prohibited by law. 21/plus terms and conditions apply.

[C]

Looking to buy your first car or home? Understanding your FICO score is key to achieving your life goals. Knowing your FICO scores helps you apply for loans with confidence and avoid surprises. With MyFICO you get access to your FICO score credit reports 24. 7 monitoring and alerts on the go Take the mystery out of your score and get your FICO score for free today. Visit myfico.com/free and discover the score lenders use most.

[A]

Ah, come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.

[B]

Still using yesterday's tech Upgrade to the ThinkPad X1 Carbon Ultra Light ultra powerful and built for serious productivity with Intel Core Ultra processors, blazing speed and AI powered performance. It keeps up with your business, not the other way around.

[A]

Whoa, this thing moves.

[B]

Stop hitting snooze on new tech. Win the tech surface. [e-mail] Unlock AI experiences with the ThinkPad X1 carbon powered by Intel Core Ultra processors so you can work, create and boost productivity all on one device.

[G]

Now I'd like to introduce you to Meaningful Beauty, the famed skincare brand created by iconic supermodel Cindy Crawford. It's her secret to absolutely gorgeous skin. Meaningful Beauty Maker makes powerful and effective skin care simple and it's loved by millions of women. It's formulated for all ages and all skin tones and types and it's designed to work as a complete skin care system, leaving your skin feeling soft, smooth and nourished. I recommend starting with Cindy's full regimen which contains all five of her best selling products including the amazing Youth Activating Melon Serum. This next generation serum has the power of melon leaf stem cell technology. Its melon leaf stem cells and chemicals encapsulated for freshness and released onto the skin to support a visible reduction in the appearance of wrinkles. With thousands of glowing five star reviews, why not give it a try? Subscribe today and you can get the Amazing Meaningful Beauty system for just $49.95. That includes our introductory five piece system, free gifts, free shipping and a 60 day money back guarantee. All that available@meaningful beauty.com.

[A]

With me today is Charles Fain Lehman. Thank you so much. He has a great story in the Free Press discussing why the murder rate has fallen so significantly. Charles, it's fallen by an estimate 14 according to Jeb Asser. What would you say is the biggest leading indicators is why our homicide rate is declining so substantially?

[H]

Yeah, you know, look, I think that there are two stories. One is a story about burnout, which is murder is concentrated among a small number of people. Usually it's a function of those people beeping with each other. They get into arguments. Those arguments escalate. They shoot. Once I shoot, you shoot back. There's a cycle. That cycle burns out because to put it very bluntly, eventually enough of the shooters are dead that you're not Gonna the ping pong effect dies off. I think it's quite likely that's part of the story. But then another part of the story is that you know, that there was a large spike in murder in 2020 that was downstream of both the co pandemic and shutting down many of our major institutions, schools, jails, et cetera. That a lot of people on the street who were going to offend and then also of course defund the police movement after George Floyd, which pushed cops to do less and push some cops out of the fashion. I think that we have seen a slackening of both of those tendencies where A we reopened back up and then B I think a lot of big cities acts have realized that getting on board with the red or empty fund was probably a mistake. The New York Times this morning had an op ed basically acknowledging that defund helped drive the increasing crime and saying don't make a difference. Again, I think a lot of big city executives are saying same thing.

[A]

Okay, so in 20 we had a declining homicide rate from like the 1990s all the way to 2014. And then Ferguson happens. And after Ferguson, I mean it goes up, it goes down, but it's really always kind of never declining at a certain level. And 2020 happens and it spikes. Are we below the Ferguson effect yet?

[H]

Yeah, I mean, so I've written a little bit of this and my argument is basically like the, the structural determinants of homicide say it should keep going down. Which by that I mean basically the population is aging and homicide is mostly a young man's game. And also we're way more surveilled as a population than we were 20, 30 years ago. Everyone in the camera in their pocket, that should drive down attending, all else being equal. That said, we've now gone through two of these cycles where 2014, 2016 and 2020 to 2022, 2022 homicide took off and you know, it was largely response to these viral incidents. You now have a lot of high quality evidence that says yes these viral incidents following followed by police protests really can drive increases increases in police activity and increases in homicides. Poison to that. So you know, I, I, I, I think about it less as like the version of price is just like the person of bracket creates these cycles and we've now gone through two of these cycles and the question is what can we avoid more of these cycles. So I think the answer is there was a big backlash in you know, 2022, 2023. You saw a bunch of mayors come in, Eric Adams in New York and Daniel Lurie in San Francisco is the most recent example. Folks who, as public safety becomes the salient issue for voters, it becomes their top priority. They really focus on it and these acts will respond to that. City council will sometimes respond to that. And like the problem is that you can be a victim of your own success. That's part of what you're seeing here in New York City where Eric Adams really has eventually gotten the crime rate down pretty persiffitously. And now voters are like, okay, I'm less worried about crime. I'm more worried about cost of living from Mondani, for better or worse owns that lane. And I think a lot of the reason he's going to win and homo Adams or not is because public safety is less salient issues. You know, I think, I think there was the backlash. I think we kind of come to the end of the backlash and now the question is like, are we going to start look at New York, you look at Seattle, you look at Minneapolis, are we going to start installing vcs? We're going to start the cycle again. These are three cities that are likely to install DSA member far left you from the police texts in their merrillties. I am very concerned that they're gonna, you know, they, they occasionally talk of your day about the fund, but I think they're gonna start backtracking on the gains that we've seen over the past couple of years because they know, you know, we're at, we're at a local minimum. We don't have to worry about it anymore. We can go back to the more radical priorities.

[A]

Well, I mean Brandon Johnson's a mayor of Chicago and Chicago's memory still. So that doesn't seem to. It's basically what you're saying. And so race between progressives versus an aging society. What will happen that will the DSA candidates overturn everything or will the aging society eventually win out and we'll just have less murder because people will be older?

[H]

You know, I think the executive isn't the sole determinant and there are structural factors right there is that burnout and look, Chicago's had a major homicide problem for a very long time. And I think that's part of why Johnson is historically unfoculated good like a 4% approval rating and stuff. But yeah, I mean, I do think that, you know, the reality is that we do know what works to suppressed crime. We have the tools. It's no longer 70s. We didn't know in the 70s. The 90s happens when the happens, we know what works. And so the question is like, do you choose to use those tools or not? I think a lot of cities chose to not use those tools for a couple of years. They got the expected result. They brought you to the back and then I was just like, like, are they going to learn history's lesson? I'm skeptical that they will. I kind of am concerned that we're going to go back to this model. Like crime is down, therefore we can open the jails. That's, that's my worry.

[A]

Well, Charles, thank you for doing this. I really appreciate it. Where can we go to read more about you?

[H]

I think you find me on x. I'm at Charlesmith Lehman and I'm also over at City Journal, city-journal.org where you can find all of my writing.

[A]

You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Gardusky. We'll be right back.

[E]

There's nothing like sinking into luxury. @washablesofas.com you'll find the Annabe sofa which combines ultimate comfort and design at an affordable price. And get this, it's the only sofa that's fully machine washable from top to bottom. Starting at only $699. The stain resistant performance fabric slipcovers and cloud like frame duvet can go straight into your wash. Perfect for anyone with with kids, pets or anyone who loves an easy to clean spotless sofa. With a modular design and changeable slipcovers, you can customize your sofa to fit any space and style. Whether you need a single chair, loveseat or a luxuriously large sectional, Annabe has you covered. Visit washablesofas.com to upgrade your home. Right now you can shop up to 60% off store wide with a 30 day money back guarantee. Shop now at washable sofa sofas.com add a little to your life. Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.

[F]

Hello, it is Ryan. And we could all use an extra bright spot in our day, couldn't we? Just to make up for things like sitting in traffic, doing the dishes, counting your steps, you know, all the mundane stuff. That is why I'm such a big fan of Chumba Casino. Chumba Casino has all your favorite social casino style games that you can play for free, free anytime, anywhere with daily bonuses. So sign up [e-mail] that's chumbacasino.com no.

[C]

Purchase necessary vgw group void where prohibited.

[A]

By law 21 + terms and conditions apply.

[C]

Looking for a mortgage, credit card or auto loan, then you should know your FICO score. Did you know 90% of top lenders use FICO scores? Visit myfico.com free today to get your FICO score for free. MyFICO makes it easy to understand your credit with FICO scores, credit reports and alerts. Visit myfico.com free or download the MyFico app and discover the score lenders use most.

[A]

Ah come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.

[B]

Still using yesterday's tech upgrade to the ThinkPad X1 carbon ultralight, ultra powerful and ultra built for serious productivity with Intel Core Ultra processors, blazing speed and AI powered performance that keeps up with your business, not the other way around.

[A]

Whoa, this thing moves.

[B]

Stop hitting snooze on new tech. Win the tech [e-mail] Lenovo Lenovo unlock AI experiences with the ThinkPad X1 carbon powered by Intel Core Ultra processors so you can work, create and boost productivity all on one device.

[G]

Now I'd like to introduce you to Meaningful Beauty, the famed skincare brand created by iconic supermodel Cindy Crawford. It's her secret to absolutely gorgeous skin. Meaningful Beauty makes powerful and effective skin care simple and it's loved by millions of women. It's formulated for all ages and all skin tones and types and it's designed to work as a complete skin care system, leaving your skin feeling soft, smooth and nourished. I recommend starting with Cindy's full regimen which contains all five of her best selling products including the Amazing Youth Activating Melon Serum. This next generation serum has the power of melon leaf stem cell technology. It's melon leaf stem cells encapsulated for freshness and released onto the skin to support a visible reduction in the appearance of wrinkles. With thousands of glowing five star reviews, why not give it a try? Subscribe today and you can get the Amazing Meaningful Beauty system for just $49.95. That includes our introductory five piece system, free gifts, free shipping and a 60 day money back guarantee. All that available@meaningful beauty.com.

[A]

Charles was traveling so the conversation was short, but essentially we are falling in our crime rate because local municipalities have dumped the defund the police Democrats and we're in an aging society. I think people underestimate how much age plays in a role in our crime rate. There is a wonderful book called the Rise and Fall of Violent Crime in America by Barry Latzer. He talks about this a lot. Like the 1970s saw this explosion of serial killers and large crime, large homicide rates in part because the baby boomers had hit their 20s and as Charles said, killing is a young man's game, murder is a young man's game. People usually don't start becoming serial killers in their 50s and 60s. So as the baby boomers hit their 20s, especially later baby boomers, homicide starts picking up in the 70s and as they start aging out of the process and there are less children as the birth rates fall, there's less homicide and that completely that slows down. Now there were things like the crack explosion and whatnot that increased it in some spots in some cities. But that is the overall trend as an aging society produces less criminals. And we are an aging society. Whether that's good or bad. That's a whole other conversation which I've talked about and I probably will continue to talk about. We'll see if the likes of like Mandani and others will reverse these trends because they are committed to the socialist vision that doesn't include strong pleasing. I hope not because overall this is very, very good news. Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment of this podcast. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me Ryan@NumbersGame Podcast.com that's Ryan@NumbersGame Podcast.com you guys mostly asked me about campaigns and, and politics and I completely understand but you could ask me about virtually anything and I will try to get to it on the show and you know, anyway, so this email comes from Brian J.

[E]

Fox.

[A]

He writes Ryan, it's a numbers game is my hand down favorite podcast. Brian, thank you. That means a lot to me. The Founding fathers designed a bicameral legislature to win the House representing the people and the Senate representing the states. The 17th Amendment ratified in 1913 to address corruption and deadlock and state legislators established direct elections for senators fundamentally altering the balance. Both chambers are now beholden to voters, reducing the influence of state governments. If the 17th Amendment were repealed and transparent process such an open legislative voting and ethics oversight for state legislators to appoint senators was implemented, how would this affect the Senate's composition and representation in states interest? Would it improve states power in the federal system? Thank you so much Brian. That is is such a good question and I am not going to lie. It is something I've actually thought about before and I know that sounds like I'm crazy but I actually have thought about this quite a bit of time because I born and raised in New York as I always sit there and remind people if they can't tell by this accent. But the in New York we Had a rep. The state senate used to elect the Senate U.S. senate senators. So the state senate in New York for over a hundred years was Republican and then it was like this weird Republican Democrat coalition of like moderate Democrats and they had some sharing power thing, whatever. But Republicans basically controlled the state senate for, for over 100 years. They had I think a four year break in that 100 year process. And had this, the 17th Amendment not been repealed, we would have absolutely had two Republican senators from New York. Probably we, I mean depending when terms ended, we may still have one. It would end up going being a Democrat, but it would, I mean it would have changed now it would that kind of process of having no direct election to senators that would ultimately likely mean, I mean almost sure and guaranteed mean like there would never be a senator. J.D. vance. Right. Great. Because we would need, then we needed the people to vote for him. I don't think the legislators would have ever voted for him. It would have definitely created a situation where a lot of our most iconic senators who have been there because they were outside the box and appeal to voters, not the party system, may not have been there. Would we have ever gotten a Barry Goldwater? Would we have ever gotten a JFK? Would we have ever gotten a John McCain? I don't, I don't know. I think for a lot of the answers is no. So our whole history changes right then and there by having this system taken away and changed. And I think that that's an important caveat because it would be much more politics as usual, much more kind of insider, insider baseball because you'd have to appeal to the, the party as a whole. Okay. So as far as how would it go? Right. The legislatures just had their election. So once again, this is based on term limits and this is based on whether or not if the senator would have still been in office when the party switched. So it's not a perfect analogy. Right, it's not a perfect analogy. First of all, Alaska would have be in a much different state because they have a coalition sharing thing where Democrats have representation. So you would likely see maybe one Democrat out of Alaska. That would be, be one of the big changes for sure. I'm looking to see, I'm looking through the list right now. We would not have a Susan Collins. That would be unfortunate since she votes with the Republicans more times than not. We'd have two Democrats from Michigan as we do now. We'd have two Democrats from Minnesota as we do now because the Democrats control that state. We have two Democrats from Nevada as we do now we'd, we probably have two Republicans from New Hampshire. So that would be a big improvement for the Republican Party. That would be a sizable change. We would have two senators from Pennsylvania instead of just one. So that would be a net plus of three and we would likely have, I think that that's it. And maybe two senators from Wisconsin. So we would probably add all of four Republicans to the Senate. So instead of having 53, because we have five, minus two, so we'd have three, so we'd have 55 Republican senators. So nothing, nothing to break the filibuster proof majority. Nothing to ultimately change. But I want you to think about like key legislation. Right. If, if we had had that system in 2008, for instance, there's no way Obamacare would have passed or is very unlikely. Obamacare would have passed because Republicans had a majority of state legislatures going into that election. So maybe they would have elected a few new Democrats, but not enough that they would have had the 60 threshold. That only comes from the Obama wave and I guess the oh6 wave. But that wouldn't have come from, if the legislatures elected it likely there would not be two enough Democrats to sit. Like New York would definitely have at least one Republican senator in that mix, if not two. And other states would have also had a Republican in the mix. Yeah. So who knows? Our history will be much, much, much different. Our representation would be different as well. And who we've had as elected officials would be different. It's almost hard to like live in that kind of alternate universe. I think it's interesting, it's so fascinating. I don't even know if I would support that. But it would be something completely different. But Republicans would have had a majority in the United States Senate for most of our time. They would have had a super majority. Republicans would have had over 60 seats then around 2014, because they almost had enough legislative Senate majorities to do a constitutional amendment on their own. It would have been something close. It would have been at least 60, probably in 2014. So there would have been a moment at the end of Obama's time in office where Republicans would have had this huge majority in the United States Senate, but it would have been a blimp in, in history. So yeah, it would lean more Republican, but we'd have much, much different leaders. And who knows how that will look. And likely a lot of key legislation that Republicans have been able to thwart would have, would have or didn't thwart, rather like Obamacare would have, would have never happened. Also by the way, another thing that would have happened, the Gingrich revolution probably wouldn't have happened because Democrats control the legislature. Remember this, Democrats controlled the state Senate in West Virginia, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, well into the mid aughts, I think until 2010, 2012 or 2014 in some of those states. So yeah, Democrats, maybe they would have had it because they would have had two Democrats in Mississippi and two Democrats in Arkansas. It would have been a radically different map and it would have probably continued the trend of conservative Democrats from the south and liberal Republicans from the north worth much longer than it ended if because of the popular vote. Well, anyway, great question. That's my overall thing at a Republicans, not that many. We had a Peak in 2014 and it's really fascinating. Kind of dig down deep down. Brian, thank you for that. I really enjoyed that. That really brought the nerd in me. I'm gonna actually go and give you highlights in the next episode and bring you bring you some alternatives in that fantasy world. I don't know if it means anything, but I find it super interesting and very entertaining. Brian, thank you for that. Thank you all for listening. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts wherever you get your podcast and I will see you guys on Thursday. How to have fun anytime, anywhere. Step 1 Go to chumbacasino.com chumbacasino.com Got it. Step 2 Collect your welcome bonus.

[F]

Come to papa. Welcome bonus.

[G]

Step 3 Play hundreds of casino style games for free.

[F]

That's a lot of games all for free.

[E]

Step 4 Unleash your excitement. Chumba Casino has been delivering thrills for over a decade. So claim your free welcome bonus now and live the chumba life. Visit chumbacasino.com no purchase necessary.

[A]

VGW Group void where prohibited by law 21 + terms and conditions apply. Ah come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.

[B]

Still using yesterday's tech Upgrade to the ThinkPad X1 Carbon Ultra Light Light, ultra powerful and built for serious productivity with Intel Core Ultra processors, blazing speed and AI powered performance. It keeps up with your business, not the other way around.

[A]

Whoa. This thing moves.

[B]

Stop hitting snooze on new tech. Win the tech [e-mail] Lenovo Lenovo unlock AI experiences with the ThinkPad X1 carbon powered by Intel Core Ultra processors so you can work, create and boost productivity all on one device.

[E]

Looking for a mortgage, credit card or auto loan? Then you should know your FICO score. Did you know 90% of top lenders use FICO scores. Visit myfico.com free today to get your FICO score for free. MyFICO makes it easy to understand your credit with FICO scores, credit reports and alerts. Visit myfico.com free. That's myfico.com free. Or download the MyFico app and discover the the score lenders use most. That's myfico.com free.

[D]

Looking to build before next spring? Order now with Morton Buildings and get site Prep savings by October 31st. Get ahead of winter weather and save big through the end of October on select projects during Morton Buildings Winter Build Sales Event. If you need a garage, a stall, barn, a storage building for an rv, boat or other vehicles, a shop for your farm, high hobbies or car restoration projects or anything in between, take advantage of this special savings now. Morton Buildings uses quality materials and expert craftsmen with an industry leading warranty to ensure your addition is built stronger, lasts longer and looks better. We'll be working all winter long, but the building spots are limited. With offers this great, why wait? Visit MortonBuildings.com and click Get Started Today. Certain restrictions may apply. Savings offer on new building purchases by October 31, 2025. Building delivery required by April 30, 2026. Contact your local Morton office for more details.

[A]

This is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive, and when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting, all linked and talking to each other. Check out Odoo at o d o o dot com. That's o d o o dot com this is an iHeart podcast.