Podcast Summary: It's a Numbers Game – The Numbers Behind Crime Declines

Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
Episode Title: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Crime Declines with Charles Fain Lehman
Date: August 18, 2025
Guest: Charles Fain Lehman (Fellow at the Manhattan Institute)
Host (Filling in): Ryan Gardusky

Episode Overview

This episode explores the surprising and significant decline in U.S. crime rates—especially homicides—over the first half of 2025. Through both solo commentary and an expert interview with Charles Fain Lehman, the episode uses data-driven insights to dig into why American cities are getting safer, what contributed to the crime surge of the 2010s and early 2020s, and whether current trends will hold. The discussion covers the impact of changes in policing, structural demographic shifts, viral incidents, and the “Ferguson Effect,” as well as the political challenges cities face in maintaining safety gains.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Polling and Political Context on Gerrymandering

Timestamps: 03:10–08:15
Recent polls in California (UC Berkeley) and New York (Siena) reveal that only about a third of voters support mid-decade, partisan redistricting—i.e., gerrymandering—for political advantage, regardless of party leadership.
- California: 36% support, 64% opposed.
- New York: 35% support, with few clear majority-supporting demographics.
Independent redistricting commissions remain popular.
Host’s takeaway: Politicians can't easily push through unpopular, undemocratic processes, even in deep blue states.
Quote:

“Voters in those overwhelmingly Democratic states sat there and said no, because voters overall… support independent commissions. The idea of an independent commission, whether or not it is truly Senate, is overwhelmingly supported by voters.” — Ryan Gardusky [05:20]

2. Crime in Washington D.C. and National Trends

Timestamps: 08:15–16:43
Anecdote about a high-profile assault in D.C. underscores the city’s alarming crime stats.
D.C. cited as the fourth worst for homicide rates in the U.S., with shocking disparities:
- A Black resident is 97 times more likely to be murdered than a white one.
Despite D.C.’s ongoing issues, nationwide homicide rates in 2025 are projected to hit their lowest point in 65 years (per FBI).
The “bad old days” of crime peaked with the Baby Boomer youth bulge and spiked again post-2014, following police brutality protests and the BLM movement.
Notable Moment: Striking comparison—D.C. homicide rate is “eight times higher than the city of Fallujah in Iraq.” [10:44]
Key factor: crackdown policies, policing, and demographic change.
Quote:

“American crime in America is on its way to a place that we have not seen in living memory for most people.” — Ryan Gardusky [13:47]
“Rudy Giuliani, for what he did in New York, saved more Black lives than Mandani will in 10,000 lifetimes of social justice BS.” — Ryan Gardusky [12:34]

3. Data on National Homicide Decline

Timestamps: 13:47–16:43
Violent crime dropped steadily from early 1990s into 2014—then spiked after the Ferguson unrest and again after George Floyd in 2020.
But in 2025, homicides are down even in cities with long-standing problems (Baltimore, Philly, New Orleans, St. Louis), and in Chicago and even D.C.
FBI projects 2025 homicide rate at 4 per 100,000: lowest since the moon landing era.
Quote:

"The FBI statistics say that homicide will hit 4 murders per 100,000 people this year—that is the lowest level in 65 years. Lowest since Neil Armstrong walked on the moon, or at least filmed that he walked on the moon..." — Ryan Gardusky [15:55]

4. Expert Interview: Charles Fain Lehman on Why Crime Has Declined

Timestamps: 20:23–26:08
Lehman outlines two main reasons:
1. Burnout Cycles among Offenders: Most murders stem from a small number of active participants whose conflicts escalate until key players are incapacitated or killed (“the ping pong effect dies off”).
2. End of Pandemic/Protest Era Disruptions: Reopening of schools, jails, and social institutions, coupled with a retreat from “defund the police” policies.
  - Noted shift in political sentiment: big city mayors now focus energetically on public safety.
Structural Factors: Aging population (crime is “a young man’s game”) and ubiquitous surveillance make crime less attractive or more detectable.
Lehman warns that crime “waves” have followed viral incidents and police pullbacks, and cities risk cycling back to less safe policies as public concern about crime recedes.
Quotes:

“Murder is concentrated among a small number of people ... There's a cycle. That cycle burns out because ... enough of the shooters are dead that the ping pong effect dies off.” — Charles Fain Lehman [20:45]
"There was a large spike in murder in 2020… downstream of both the pandemic... and of course the defund the police movement after George Floyd…" — Charles Fain Lehman [21:20]
“We know what works to suppress crime… it's no longer the 70s. The question is: do you choose to use those tools or not?” — Charles Fain Lehman [25:13]
Hosts and guest agree: Political priorities are shifting as crime recedes, with risks of complacency and a return to “radical priorities” that could trigger the next spike.

5. Demographic Trends: The Aging Society Factor in Crime Rates

Timestamps: 29:54–31:50
Gardusky cites Berry Latzer’s The Rise and Fall of Violent Crime in America to explain how society’s aging out of high-crime cohorts (“Murder is a young man’s game”).
The Baby Boomers contributed to the 1970s surge; now, falling birthrates = fewer young men = fewer violent crimes.
Acknowledges other factors (e.g., crack epidemic), but demographics are “the overall trend.”
Open question: Could far-left (DSA) mayors and policies threaten these positive trends?
Quote:

"As Charles said, killing is a young man's game, murder is a young man's game. People usually don't start becoming serial killers in their fifties and sixties." — Ryan Gardusky [30:12]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On D.C. Crime:

“The homicide rate is eight times higher than the city of Fallujah in Iraq.” — Ryan Gardusky [10:44]
On Policy and Political Cycles:

“You never want to chase the Internet, never chase Twitter if you’re an elected official, because Twitter is not real… it does not make up the majority of where people are.” — Ryan Gardusky [07:37]
On Homicide Rate Collapse:

"FBI statistics say that homicide will hit 4 murders per 100,000 people this year, the lowest level in 65 years." — Ryan Gardusky [15:55]

Interview Segment: Charles Fain Lehman (Manhattan Institute)

Timestamps: 20:23–26:08

Why Is the Homicide Rate Declining?
- “Burnout” cycles among a small group of offenders; after years of tit-for-tat violence, the most violent die or are incarcerated.
- Backlash against “defund the police” led cities to recommit to law enforcement.
- Reopening after the pandemic helped reestablish social order.
- “We have the tools” to fight crime now, unlike the 1970s.
What’s Next—More Decline or a New Spike?
- As public concern about crime drops, cities risk “being victims of their own success”—voters turn focus to other issues (e.g., cost of living), allowing far-left mayors and less enforcement-focused policies a comeback.
- Structural trends (aging, surveillance) may keep pushing crime down, but politics could elbow that trend aside.
Memorable Quote:

"Crime is down, therefore we can open the jails. That's… my worry." — Charles Fain Lehman [25:52]

Demographic & Social Science Takeaways

Age Structure Matters:
Violent crime tracks closely with a society’s share of young men. As the U.S. ages and birthrates fall, crime drops.
Trend Risks:
Political cycles, viral police incidents, and “Internet governance” can cause sharp spikes when policies swing away from proven enforcement.

Timestamps for Key Segments

Polling on Redistricting: 03:10–08:15
D.C. and Crime Anecdotes: 08:15–16:43
Statistical Big Picture on Homicide: 13:47–16:43
Guest Interview: Charles Fain Lehman: 20:23–26:08
Demographics/Serial Killers: 29:54–31:50

Conclusion

This episode paints a thorough, statistics-driven portrait of America’s dramatic recent progress against violent crime. It puts the data in social and political context, outlines the drivers (from offending “burnout” to aging to policing priorities), and warns about new risks if cities and voters lose focus on effective public safety strategies. While the news is overall upbeat—projecting the safest America in more than half a century—the episode closes with a cautious note: policy and demographics are always in tension, and history offers no guarantee that good trends will last.

Podcast Summary: It's a Numbers Game – The Numbers Behind Crime Declines

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Polling and Political Context on Gerrymandering

Timestamps: 03:10–08:15
Recent polls in California (UC Berkeley) and New York (Siena) reveal that only about a third of voters support mid-decade, partisan redistricting—i.e., gerrymandering—for political advantage, regardless of party leadership.
- California: 36% support, 64% opposed.
- New York: 35% support, with few clear majority-supporting demographics.
Independent redistricting commissions remain popular.
Host’s takeaway: Politicians can't easily push through unpopular, undemocratic processes, even in deep blue states.
Quote:

“Voters in those overwhelmingly Democratic states sat there and said no, because voters overall… support independent commissions. The idea of an independent commission, whether or not it is truly Senate, is overwhelmingly supported by voters.” — Ryan Gardusky [05:20]

2. Crime in Washington D.C. and National Trends

Timestamps: 08:15–16:43
Anecdote about a high-profile assault in D.C. underscores the city’s alarming crime stats.
D.C. cited as the fourth worst for homicide rates in the U.S., with shocking disparities:
- A Black resident is 97 times more likely to be murdered than a white one.
Despite D.C.’s ongoing issues, nationwide homicide rates in 2025 are projected to hit their lowest point in 65 years (per FBI).
The “bad old days” of crime peaked with the Baby Boomer youth bulge and spiked again post-2014, following police brutality protests and the BLM movement.
Notable Moment: Striking comparison—D.C. homicide rate is “eight times higher than the city of Fallujah in Iraq.” [10:44]
Key factor: crackdown policies, policing, and demographic change.
Quote:

“American crime in America is on its way to a place that we have not seen in living memory for most people.” — Ryan Gardusky [13:47]
“Rudy Giuliani, for what he did in New York, saved more Black lives than Mandani will in 10,000 lifetimes of social justice BS.” — Ryan Gardusky [12:34]

3. Data on National Homicide Decline

Timestamps: 13:47–16:43
Violent crime dropped steadily from early 1990s into 2014—then spiked after the Ferguson unrest and again after George Floyd in 2020.
But in 2025, homicides are down even in cities with long-standing problems (Baltimore, Philly, New Orleans, St. Louis), and in Chicago and even D.C.
FBI projects 2025 homicide rate at 4 per 100,000: lowest since the moon landing era.
Quote:

"The FBI statistics say that homicide will hit 4 murders per 100,000 people this year—that is the lowest level in 65 years. Lowest since Neil Armstrong walked on the moon, or at least filmed that he walked on the moon..." — Ryan Gardusky [15:55]

4. Expert Interview: Charles Fain Lehman on Why Crime Has Declined

Timestamps: 20:23–26:08
Lehman outlines two main reasons:
1. Burnout Cycles among Offenders: Most murders stem from a small number of active participants whose conflicts escalate until key players are incapacitated or killed (“the ping pong effect dies off”).
2. End of Pandemic/Protest Era Disruptions: Reopening of schools, jails, and social institutions, coupled with a retreat from “defund the police” policies.
  - Noted shift in political sentiment: big city mayors now focus energetically on public safety.
Structural Factors: Aging population (crime is “a young man’s game”) and ubiquitous surveillance make crime less attractive or more detectable.
Lehman warns that crime “waves” have followed viral incidents and police pullbacks, and cities risk cycling back to less safe policies as public concern about crime recedes.
Quotes:

“Murder is concentrated among a small number of people ... There's a cycle. That cycle burns out because ... enough of the shooters are dead that the ping pong effect dies off.” — Charles Fain Lehman [20:45]
"There was a large spike in murder in 2020… downstream of both the pandemic... and of course the defund the police movement after George Floyd…" — Charles Fain Lehman [21:20]
“We know what works to suppress crime… it's no longer the 70s. The question is: do you choose to use those tools or not?” — Charles Fain Lehman [25:13]
Hosts and guest agree: Political priorities are shifting as crime recedes, with risks of complacency and a return to “radical priorities” that could trigger the next spike.

5. Demographic Trends: The Aging Society Factor in Crime Rates

Timestamps: 29:54–31:50
Gardusky cites Berry Latzer’s The Rise and Fall of Violent Crime in America to explain how society’s aging out of high-crime cohorts (“Murder is a young man’s game”).
The Baby Boomers contributed to the 1970s surge; now, falling birthrates = fewer young men = fewer violent crimes.
Acknowledges other factors (e.g., crack epidemic), but demographics are “the overall trend.”
Open question: Could far-left (DSA) mayors and policies threaten these positive trends?
Quote:

"As Charles said, killing is a young man's game, murder is a young man's game. People usually don't start becoming serial killers in their fifties and sixties." — Ryan Gardusky [30:12]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On D.C. Crime:

“The homicide rate is eight times higher than the city of Fallujah in Iraq.” — Ryan Gardusky [10:44]
On Policy and Political Cycles:

“You never want to chase the Internet, never chase Twitter if you’re an elected official, because Twitter is not real… it does not make up the majority of where people are.” — Ryan Gardusky [07:37]
On Homicide Rate Collapse:

"FBI statistics say that homicide will hit 4 murders per 100,000 people this year, the lowest level in 65 years." — Ryan Gardusky [15:55]

Interview Segment: Charles Fain Lehman (Manhattan Institute)

Timestamps: 20:23–26:08

Why Is the Homicide Rate Declining?
- “Burnout” cycles among a small group of offenders; after years of tit-for-tat violence, the most violent die or are incarcerated.
- Backlash against “defund the police” led cities to recommit to law enforcement.
- Reopening after the pandemic helped reestablish social order.
- “We have the tools” to fight crime now, unlike the 1970s.
What’s Next—More Decline or a New Spike?
- As public concern about crime drops, cities risk “being victims of their own success”—voters turn focus to other issues (e.g., cost of living), allowing far-left mayors and less enforcement-focused policies a comeback.
- Structural trends (aging, surveillance) may keep pushing crime down, but politics could elbow that trend aside.
Memorable Quote:

"Crime is down, therefore we can open the jails. That's… my worry." — Charles Fain Lehman [25:52]

Demographic & Social Science Takeaways

Age Structure Matters:
Violent crime tracks closely with a society’s share of young men. As the U.S. ages and birthrates fall, crime drops.
Trend Risks:
Political cycles, viral police incidents, and “Internet governance” can cause sharp spikes when policies swing away from proven enforcement.

Timestamps for Key Segments

Polling on Redistricting: 03:10–08:15
D.C. and Crime Anecdotes: 08:15–16:43
Statistical Big Picture on Homicide: 13:47–16:43
Guest Interview: Charles Fain Lehman: 20:23–26:08
Demographics/Serial Killers: 29:54–31:50

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It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Crime Declines with Charles Fain Lehman

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Summary

Podcast Summary: It's a Numbers Game – The Numbers Behind Crime Declines

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Polling and Political Context on Gerrymandering

2. Crime in Washington D.C. and National Trends

3. Data on National Homicide Decline

4. Expert Interview: Charles Fain Lehman on Why Crime Has Declined

5. Demographic Trends: The Aging Society Factor in Crime Rates

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Interview Segment: Charles Fain Lehman (Manhattan Institute)

Demographic & Social Science Takeaways

Timestamps for Key Segments

Conclusion

Further Reading & Where to Find Charles Fain Lehman

Summary

Podcast Summary: It's a Numbers Game – The Numbers Behind Crime Declines

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Polling and Political Context on Gerrymandering

2. Crime in Washington D.C. and National Trends

3. Data on National Homicide Decline

4. Expert Interview: Charles Fain Lehman on Why Crime Has Declined

5. Demographic Trends: The Aging Society Factor in Crime Rates

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Interview Segment: Charles Fain Lehman (Manhattan Institute)

Demographic & Social Science Takeaways

Timestamps for Key Segments

Conclusion

Further Reading & Where to Find Charles Fain Lehman