It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Democrat Party Polling with Carly Cooperman

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode Title:
It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Democrat Party Polling with Carly Cooperman
Release Date: May 15, 2025
Host: Ryan Graduski
Guest: Carly Cooperman, Democratic Pollster

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Introduction

In this insightful episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, host Ryan Graduski delves into the intricate landscape of Democratic Party polling and leadership prospects with renowned Democratic pollster Carly Cooperman. The discussion sheds light on the current state of the Democratic Party, exploring its leadership vacuum, fundraising dynamics, candidate viability, and the broader electoral implications heading into the 2028 elections.

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Current State of the Democratic Party

Ryan opens the conversation by highlighting the perceived leadership void within the Democratic Party. Unlike the Republican side, which has clear frontrunners like Vice President Vance and Marco Rubio for the 2028 presidential nomination, Democrats appear to lack a similarly defined leader. Ryan points out the recent leaks from Joe Biden's new book, Original Sin, which reveal concerns about Biden's cognitive health and the White House's efforts to conceal these issues (16:45).

Ryan Graduski: “As somebody whose grandfather had Louis B. Dementia... there were moments... when looking at Joe Biden reminded me of my grandfather in some of the worst states of his decline.” (22:15)

Carly concurs, emphasizing that the Democrats are grappling with a desperate need for fresh leadership to navigate the party out of its current disarray.

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Polling Insights and Leadership Prospects

The core of the discussion revolves around the polling numbers naming potential Democratic leaders for the 2028 presidential race. Carly breaks down the latest poll figures, revealing that Kamala Harris leads with 27%—a significant but not overwhelming lead, attributed largely to name recognition as the former Vice President.

Carly Cooperman: “When aggregated, Democrats support Kamala Harris at 27. That's a very high number for all these polls, but a very weak number overall.” (25:10)

Following Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) secure second and third places with 16% and 13%, respectively. Other notable figures include Cory Booker at 9% and Gavin Newsom at 7%. Carly highlights the open nature of the primary, suggesting that without Harris, there's a significant leadership gap.

Carly Cooperman: “If you take Kamala Harris out of it because her numbers are mainly name id, you have this giant hole of who is the future, who is the leader of the Democratic Party.” (25:50)

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Fundraising Dynamics and Grassroots Support

A critical aspect examined is the fundraising prowess of potential candidates. Carly underscores Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's formidable grassroots support, noting that in the first quarter of the year, AOC raised $9.6 million for her re-election in a safely Democratic district—a testament to her strong backing among small-dollar donors.

Carly Cooperman: “AOC is enormously popular in the party and possibly the future of it if Democratic voters across the country...” (26:30)

In contrast, other leaders like Chris Murphy and Jasmine Crockett have raised significantly less, indicating a concentration of grassroots enthusiasm around AOC.

Carly Cooperman: “Chris Murphy raised 8 million... Jasmine Crockett... raised 1.7 million, which is the same amount that Cory Booker raised.” (27:00)

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Challenges Facing Democratic Leadership

The conversation shifts to the internal challenges within the Democratic Party, particularly the ideological splits between moderates and progressives. Carly points out that while figures like AOC and Bernie Sanders energize the progressive base, there’s a lack of consensus on party direction, especially in pivotal swing states.

Carly Cooperman: “The Democratic Party is not going to change in a way where you have some of the states that are really far left or have a stronger far left first. It's just not gonna happen now.” (28:30)

Furthermore, demographic and identity factors pose additional hurdles for potential candidates. Carly discusses the difficulties Jewish candidates like Josh Shapiro and LGBTQ candidates like Pete Buttigieg may face within the party, reflecting broader societal and cultural dynamics.

Carly Cooperman: “There is this cultural moment right now in the country that is going back to, you know, what tends to be associated with right world policies...” (32:41)

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Geography's Impact on Primaries

Ryan emphasizes the significance of geographic strategy in primary elections, drawing parallels to historical Democratic nominees like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, who secured crucial support in states like Iowa and the Southeast.

Ryan Graduski: “Geography really matters where the party, not many things.” (27:15)

Carly agrees, noting that starting primaries in more moderate states like South Carolina can influence the trajectory of candidate viability, often sidelining more progressive contenders early in the race.

Carly Cooperman: “The Democratic Party is not going to change in a way where you have some of the states that are really far left or have a stronger far left first.” (28:22)

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Union Support and Partisan Dynamics

Addressing labor unions, Carly explains the historical alignment between unions and the Democratic Party but expresses skepticism about a shift towards Republican support unless union leadership undergoes significant changes.

Carly Cooperman: “The Teamsters union is the only one I could see the major union may be changing now... but I wouldn't hold my breath on seeing one.” (38:30)

She draws parallels to institutional challenges within other organizations, such as the Catholic Church, where leadership may not always reflect the views of the broader membership.

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Future Prospects and Conclusions

In wrapping up, Carly offers hope that Democrats can capitalize on the current dissatisfaction with Republican policies, particularly regarding economic issues and immigration. She believes that by reconnecting with working-class voters and reinforcing their economic message, Democrats can regain momentum.

Carly Cooperman: “There is a belief that Trump is going too far... it gives Democrats an opportunity to come back to their own economic message and connect with working class voters.” (35:31)

Ryan concurs, emphasizing the fleeting nature of political windows and the importance of strategic positioning ahead of the upcoming elections.

Ryan Graduski: “Different politics is like, like an open window. It's only open for a little while and then it's shut.” (36:00)

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Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the Democratic Party's polling numbers and the complex factors influencing its future leadership and electoral success. With Carly Cooperman's expert insights, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing Democrats as they navigate the path towards the 2028 presidential elections.

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Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Graduski:
  "As somebody whose grandfather had Louis B. Dementia... there were moments... when looking at Joe Biden reminded me of my grandfather in some of the worst states of his decline." (22:15)

• Carly Cooperman:
  “If you take Kamala Harris out of it because her numbers are mainly name id, you have this giant hole of who is the future, who is the leader of the Democratic Party.” (25:50)

• Carly Cooperman:
  “AOC is enormously popular in the party and possibly the future of it if Democratic voters across the country...” (26:30)

• Carly Cooperman:
  “The Democratic Party is not going to change in a way where you have some of the states that are really far left or have a stronger far left first. It's just not gonna happen now.” (28:30)

• Carly Cooperman:
  “There is a belief that Trump is going too far... it gives Democrats an opportunity to come back to their own economic message and connect with working class voters.” (35:31)

---

Resources Mentioned:

• Original Sin by Joe Biden – Upcoming book discussing Joe Biden's cognitive health and media coverage.
• Polling data on Democratic leadership prospects for 2028.

Follow Carly Cooperman:

• Twitter: @CarlyCooperman
• Op-eds and Articles: Regular contributions on The Hill and Fox News.

Stay Connected:

• For more insights and discussions, subscribe to The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show on your preferred podcast platform.

Transcript

[Ryan Graduski]

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[Carly Cooperman]

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[Carly Cooperman]

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[Ryan Graduski]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you all for being here yet again. I hope you liked Monday's episode on Iran. I think it's a little different, a story that now is in the news, but I was trying to cover it before it was. But I want to take things back to America, look in our country. And I know this is a podcast that I'm a Republican and I primarily talk to Republicans. The audience is conservative, but I want to spend an episode talking about Democrats and not even in a, you know, negative light, but really exploring where the Democratic Party is and where it's going. There's been a lot of news on the direction of the Democratic Party and who their future leader will be. And while Republicans have a clear front runner in 2028 being vice president Vance and even a secondary front runner being Marco Rubio, Democrats are really lost in the wilderness. There's not a clear, concise future for them. First, there's a lot of leaks coming out. This, this week started with a lot of leaks coming out about Joe Biden, the last Democratic leader, the former president, in a new book called Original Sin. And it's about his cognitive decline and how the efforts on the part of the media and the White House to hide its severity. One of the leaks in the book I haven't read. I'm supposed to get an advanced copy soon. But one of the leaks that did come out was that the White House was afraid if he fell one more time that he would end up in a wheelchair. I will say, personally, as somebody whose grandfather had Louis B. Dementia, and I saw somebody severely declining every single day, there were moments in time looking at Joe Biden that it reminded me of my grandfather in some of the worst states of his decline. And the media and the White House covered it up. And the Republicans didn't mock it, maybe to an unnecessary point, but they rightfully were the only ones pointing it out. So the book Original Sin, which comes out, I think, next week, one of the authors, Alex Thompson, told me he'll be on the podcast to talk about it, which is very exciting. I really want to talk about the state that the media and the White House covered up Joe Biden's health in. And I'm actually going to ask our listeners if you have a question about this and you want me to ask a certain question to one of the authors, to Alex, if he, if he does come on, I Think he will. He said he will. To ask him shoot me an email at ryan@NumbersGame Podcast.com, ryanumbersGame Podcast.com and I'll ask him when he comes on. I think that people need to know more because so much was hidden. Anyway, a lot of Democrats have talked, have been trying to avoid the conversation on Joe Biden. Chuck Schumer was on MSNBC and flat out said we're not looking back anymore. We're going to look into the future as if it's not relevant, as if the last four years have not been relevant. Even though Joe Biden was out there and he's still doing media, he was on the View last week talking about how he's going to prepare to take on Trump on the stump. Rigorous 83 year old Joe Biden just, you know, hitting the campaign trail yet again. And at the same time that you have the conversation, Joe Biden out in the media again and it's not going away anytime soon, you have the negative comments and coverage coming out about Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman. If you didn't read his former chief of staff came forward in a piece in New York magazine saying that his mental state was in basically freefall and he was angry and lashing out. Staff and Senator Fedeman deny these allegations. But since the piece came out, more staffers have resigned from his office. And it's seemingly that the Democratic Party, some members of the Democratic Party and Democratic activists are cheering him leaving because he is a more moderate voice in the Democratic Party, although he still has a pretty progressive voting record. He's more moderate voice, especially on the issue of Israel. And I think it's noteworthy if Fetterman resigns or leaves early or doesn't run for reelection in part because of being attacked so regularly. Now, he did have a stroke. He probably does have some cognitive issues because of that. But when he was running and had cognitive issues when he couldn't finish a sentence during his debate, he was brave. And now that he has been a stalwart for Israel is, you know, should think about resigning or think about retiring early. I think that's very interesting. And especially coming out of a cycle where Joe Biden was healthy and rigorous and it was the best he's ever been if you listen to Joe Scarborough and now and until he had to resign. So anyway, you look at those two cases, those two stories going in about it and you look at the forward into the 2028 election, which is, I know it seems like so far away, but a candidate will be announcing that they are running for president the day after the midterm, if, if not beforehand honestly. But probably right after the midterm you'll have your first Democratic nominee. And I think that it's important to look at who is floating themselves out there. Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, he was out this in the stump recently. A lot of these Democrats right now, by the way are doing small tours or big tours in some cases, but mostly small tours to important swing states and small and swing region, especially important primary and caucus states. So you have Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, he held events in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. You have former Transportation Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg campaigning in Iowa with a beard. Good for him. Minnesota Governor and former Kamala Harris running mate Tim Waltz was in Wisconsin. And then you have the media tour on podcast coming from like Gavin Newsom and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. He was the he worked for President Obama as the chief of staff and then he was the mayor of Chicago and then he was the ambassador I believe Japan under Joe Biden. He is being ripped on the coals in a lot of these podcast interviews. He's doing such a horrible job and but he's floating idea for presidential run apparently. And then you have Senator, Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy, they're all making the tours, making the rounds, getting support early. And then there's the AOC of it all. She is done a cross country tour called the Fight the Oligarchy tour with Senator Bernie Sanders and it very much looks like she is possibly gearing up for a presidential run. Chuck Schumer's up in 2026 for the US Senate seat, but I don't believe that she's vying for that. It'd be very tough to oust. The minority leader especially has been there for so long and has so much institutional support among organizations in New York, New York. As a lifelong New Yorker, New York is not a progressive state as much. It's an establishment Democrat state and certain organizations institutions keep the party from veering too far to the left. It's not California, it's not Vermont. It's New York. It's different. So I don't look at and say she's going to run for the Senate. I think she's looking for an eyeing a presidential run with what she's done so far based upon what I've seen and but let's get into the numbers of all because numbers do matter. This is the numbers Game podcast. It's extremely early but Democrat voters when asked a question of who would they support in 2028, Kamala Harris is the lead because she was the former vice president. She has the highest name id. People remember her, people know her. That's very, very common. Sarah Palin was leading out of 2008 election loss. There's a lot of people who run who lead. Paul Ryan was certainly very high for some part after 2012, just because they know their name. That's why they sit there and, and, and gallop and support them in these early polls. But I don't think even Kamala Harris is going to run anyway. Second place is either Pete Buttigieg or Alexandra Ocasio Cortez. These are two very. They're young, but they have two very different parts of the party that they seem to represent. Also very high in single digits in these polls is Cory Booker and Gavin Newsom. Cory Booker, center from New Jersey, Gavin Newsom, governor from California. When aggregated, Democrats support Kamala Harris at 27. That's a very high number for all these polls, but a very weak number overall. Once again, I don't think she's running. Pete Buttigieg was at 16, AOC was at 13, Cory Booker at 9 and Gavin Newsom at 7. That is a pretty open primary. And remember, once again, Kamala Harris, if you take her out of it because her numbers are mainly name id, you have this giant hole of who is the future, who is the leader of the Democratic Party, partially, that we're going to see these. The future leader comes from money. Money tells us part of that story because the people who donate to politics, people who sit there and give their $20 a month to a candidate and a recurring donation online. By the way, if you ever want to give to a candidate, giving a recurring donation is the best way that they'll receive that money. Most of that money will actually go to the candidate and not to all the fundraisers and funding. If you do have a $10 donation once a month, every month for a year, over a hundred dollar donation, just a little thing. The $10 donation actually goes further, but that's besides the point. But who is giving those reoccurring donations in Democratic politics? Where is the grassroots? They're behind aoc. In the first quarter of this year, from January to March, AOC raised $9.6 million for her reelection campaign in a seat that no Republican can win ever. I mean, maybe in the future, sometime, but not in today, not in 2025, not in 2026, probably not in 2028. That seat cannot be won by a Republican. It's a seat that Kamaha's won by 22 points. So why are they giving it to her instead of, let's say, a vulnerable Democrat running for the US Senate in Michigan or running in a vulnerable House seat? Because small dollar donors believe in her message and they believe in her vision. They think that she represents the future Democratic Party, or at least their version of how they want it. Or, or maybe she just even represents somebody who's going to fight Trump and Elon Musk and J.D. vance and the Republican Party as a whole. They think that she's the only effective person really doing it. And I want to compare. $9 million is a lot of money, but I want to just show you how much money it actually is. Chris Murphy, the senator from one of the wealthiest states in the country, Connecticut, not a poor state, very, very wealthy. He's very well known, he's very ambitious, does a lot of media. He raised 8 million. She represents one little district. Jasmine Crockett, who's done a bajillion media interviews, recently raised 1.7 million, which is the same amount that Cory Booker raised in New Jersey after giving a large longest speech in Senate history trying to sit there and raise money for himself. AOC is enormously popular in the party and possibly the future of it if Democratic voters across the country, because regions do matter, especially in a presidential primary where you have to win black voters in the south and the Latino voters in the west and then progressive voters in the Midwest and progressive voters in the Northeast, progressive white voters, it's very difficult to see that they'll all sit there and rally around her. But so far, the grassroots have a opinion. They have a pick, and AOC is right now their pick. So the party activists, those who put their wallets and spend their time and do the door knocking on behalf of the Democratic Party to elect somebody they like aoc, to quote Sally Fields when she won her Oscar in 1985, they like her. They really, really like her. But I'm a Republican, so maybe I'm not the best person to ask when it comes to what Democrats want and who their party leader is. Up next is a Democratic pollster who does. So stay tuned.

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[Carly Cooperman]

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[Carly Cooperman]

Ah come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.

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[Carly Cooperman]

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[Ryan Graduski]

With me for this Thursday episode is Democrat pollster Carly Cooperman. Thank you so much for being here, Carly.

[Carly Cooperman]

Thank you for having me.

[Ryan Graduski]

So, Carly, I want to ask a question because I think most Americans want to know who is the leader of the Democratic Party because like for the first time, I think since like 1991, there's a void which is nerve wracking for some people. But it really is very exciting because out of that 1991 void you got Bill Clinton. Do you see like a star like that emerging or is there a leader that we just don't kind of forecast as a leader right now?

[Carly Cooperman]

I don't think we know yet who the leader is. I definitely think there's a void that came out of the elections. Democrats are really down on their party right now. They desperately want fresh leadership. They want people who are going to come out with new ideas. They want people who are going to take on Donald Trump. I don't think today it is clear in terms of that Kamala Harris is going to fill that void. I don't really see it going in that direction. You've got somebody like AOC who is outspoken. She is an effective speaker, but I don't see her taking hold of the, of the party. Despite the fact that she's been out there. There's been a strong response to her and Bernie Sanders.

[Ryan Graduski]

A lot of money.

[Carly Cooperman]

She has, she's raised a ton of money. Look, I mean, there is a huge positive response into her and Sanders going on the road because no other Democrat was doing that.

[Ryan Graduski]

You're right. The Oligarchy tour. Yeah, I think it's called, I'm not joking. I think it's called the Oligarchy. Yeah, I think it's called the Oligarchy tour. I think so.

[Carly Cooperman]

I mean, look, people, I do not think Sanders and AOC represent a majority of the Democratic Party. But people were so happy. Democrats were so happy to see somebody speak up because, you know, the party is down in the dumps. They are out in the wilderness. They are trying to figure out how to come back. Like, obviously the first few Months, you're going to see some people disagreeing on what that strategy should be. And I think the shell shock of the force for which Trump came back pulling the levers of government so much more effectively than the first time around was just huge. But I don't see her coming in. And look, there's some people on the bench who are trying to assert themselves more. You've got Gavin Newsom trying to come on and go on other podcasts and.

[Ryan Graduski]

Try to like the podcast host.

[Carly Cooperman]

Now, I know, like, that's, that's what happened with media this cycle. And, you know, young people are consuming content on, on podcasts. They're not consuming content through traditional news sources. And they are, you know, young men especially. There's obviously been an ad nauseam, just amount of discussion around it, but it's a real thing. Democrats used to be able to rely on young voters, and that is not where things are right now.

[Ryan Graduski]

So, yeah, the David Shore data was really like very startling. Even, even on the Republican side after winning, I said, wow, those are very stark numbers. What do Democrats want? What did rank and file Democratic voters want from their leader? And is there a difference among age, race, sex, geography? Is there stark differences that really does matter as far the future of the party. Not just, you know, that the young people would decide, but people in key states decide a lot of that stuff, too. Is there a difference?

[Carly Cooperman]

Well, above all, right now, what Democrats want are leaders that are going to stand up to Donald Trump. There was a poll that came out at the end of last week that said 75% of Democrats want somebody who's going to stand up to Trump. And that was stronger than anything else in terms of ideology. 46% plurality of Democrats said that they want, you know, the party can stay the same. And then it was 20% said should be more liberal, 21% more moderate.

[Ryan Graduski]

And so basically you're saying is they were very broken on the direction, philosophically, they were just very strongly opposed to Trump is what you're saying.

[Carly Cooperman]

Yeah, they, above all, it's not an ideological thing right now. Above all, it's, I mean, look, opposition to Trump is something that has historically unified Democrats above all. But there was, you know, I think part of the problem is that there has been this leftward drift of the party over a lot of years. And at this point, you know, I think there's an awareness that that is, as, you know, the party has gone too far and they want their leaders to connect to working class voters. This is a voting block that they used to have and they won. They want a force that's going to stand up for Trump. I also think, you know, the first time around with Trump, you saw people have an interest in, you know, this idea of bipartisanship and, you know, working together. I think a decade later, that's kind of out the window. That's not where people are at this point. And so they want there to be a stand.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. So the thing that I want wonder is that you have a lot of Democrats who kind of float ideas that are, I would say, quote, unquote, moderate. Right. Let's for like, you'll see like a John Fetterman talk about like Israel or you'll see I forget his name now. The congressman from Massachusetts who was like, biological men don't belong in girl sports. Or you'll see one once in a while. They'll float something up. Vincente Gonzalez voted for the law that named after the young woman murdered by an illegal alien in Georgia, whose name also just slipped my mind. Doing really good on my research in my memory today. But, but it will come to me the minute this segment completely ends. I'll be like, this is the law. But, but you see that. And then there's like a big pushback among like the Twitterverse who don't really represent the average voter because most voters aren't on Twitter. But the fear of being mocked on Twitter drives a lot of. Do you think that that is true and that someone will be like, hey, listen, we'll stick to our progressive values on health care or gun control, but we're going to moderate on the border, you know what I mean? Something like that, where they're going to look for things because there are issues that Democrats are much more popular with the average American on, and then there's some issues that Republicans are much more popular than the average American on. And I think what Trump was able to do is really abandoned a lot of conservative issues like abortion that was not popular with the average American and say, no, we're not going to do a nationwide ban. We're not going to do anything like that on health care. Really don't really know what Trump's position was, but it was like, we're going to take care of everybody and. Yeah, exactly. But do you see a Democrat willing to sit there in the same way that Trump was willing to tell pro lifers, hey, guess what? You got everything you're going to get from us, and then that's that. And the rest of it you deal with on your state level issues. Do you think that a Democrat would do that on, let's say, the border, for example?

[Carly Cooperman]

Well, I absolutely think that the party, if you look at like the average kind of center of where the party is on something like immigration at the border, it is 100% moved to the right from where it used to be. I mean, you have Democrats coming out and just speaking, acknowledging, you know, immigration has gotten out of control. You know, what's coming into the border is too much. We support getting illegal immigrants, especially who are convicted felons, to leave. So I think that there has been shift in response to where the American electorate really is on that kind of issue. Donald Trump has done a very effective job really hitting home that issue. And when he was running, let's hear that in the economy, the cost of living, he connected to voters on those issues. And the Democrats were far too late scrambling to, to acknowledge that. And so I do think you're seeing to some extent a response and a willingness to come there. But I also think part of the problem with the Democrats last cycle is that they were really afraid to go out there on Twitter, for instance, and, or on podcasts and let them be, you know, exposed to those sorts of attacks. You know, something like abortion rights. Democrats squarely were in the majority in terms of their attitudes to that issue. Most Americans polling shows time and time again nationally in swing states that people believe there is a legal right to abortion. And so we saw that that helped the Democrats in 2022. There were a lot of ballot initiatives that were being put on ballots that people thought were going to help, you know, in terms of the actual presidential election. And so great, you know, they can talk about that. But at the end of the day, it was very clear that in, in a cycle where people felt like the cost of living was too high and their day to day was too hard, that just wasn't important. And so I do think you, they absolutely need to, and there will, there has to be, if they're going to be successful in the midterms, some kind of reconciliation.

[Ryan Graduski]

So I want to talk about geography, because I think it's a story and a narrative. As someone who worked on politics basically my whole life, the only other job I ever had was Victoria's Secret. So this is like my whole kitten caboodle. I mean, I have. So geography is a very important narrative that people don't cover because had the Democratic, had the Democratic primary not had such a strong emphasis in the Deep south, in the Southeast so early, it wouldn't, Joe Biden would have never been the nominee, he would have been saved. He was saved by black voters in the Southeast. Bill Clinton was saved by black voters in the Southeast. Barack Obama was helped by progressive white voters in Iowa who gave him a chance and legitimized his candidacy. Geography really matters where the party, not many things. Listen, in 2016, seen, had the text at the Republican primary been Iowa, then Texas, Ted Cruz likely would have been our nominee and not Donald Trump. Geography does matter.

[Carly Cooperman]

Yeah.

[Ryan Graduski]

The primary start of this year in South Carolina, they said we're going to start them in South Carolina instead of Iowa and New Hampshire. That will be very, I think, important when it comes to progressives trying to get a foothold because South Carolina Democrats are not the more progressive members of the, of the bunch that's more of establishment state and Democratic politics. Do you think that if they continue that it's a way for the party really to avoid a case where maybe the more left winger would come in and, and do you think that that's my, my, my take on it is accurate kind of prognostication of the party?

[Carly Cooperman]

Yeah, I think it's a really fair point you're making. I think that the Democratic Party is not going to change it in a way where you have some of the states that are really far left or have a stronger far left first. It's just not gonna happen now. No matter what you're gonna see in four years, I think you're gonna see a wide range of candidates come forward and you're gonna have some on the far left. I think the ones who've been most successful in a voice or at least in the conversations about potential in the future. Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer, you know, Newsom, like we talked about, J.B. pritzker, like those kind of people, the ones AOC aside, tend to, you know, be ones that are attempting to be more moderate. But also it's about that where we are right now as a country, I barring, you know, there's a lot of crazy that I'm sure is still yet to come from Donald Trump. I cannot see us being in a place where the shift could go that far back to the left. And so, you know, kind of responding to the moment of where we are in politics right now, I think the Democratic Party is, has to continue thinking about those sorts of states and it really does matter. But, but there's more to it than matters too, in terms of just being able to build that coalition and, and the momentum. And I don't see that being a far left candidate right now.

[Ryan Graduski]

Really? What about Josh Shapiro? Because that's the name you haven't said so far. And it is to Republicans. Republicans feel like Josh Shapiro, he does have an Obama accent. I'll just sit there and say that he does kind of speak like, I've never met a Jew who has a black preacher accent be Josh Shapiro. But that aside, he's extremely popular in a very critical state. And a lot of Republicans felt that he was stepped aside and that his, that there is kind of this big question mark of does he have a. Obviously has a place in the Democratic Party, but does he have a future where he would be the leader? Wes Moore already said he's not going to run. Let's see if he sticks to that. But West Moore is also a very, very viable Canada Governor of Maryland, super amazing resume. Really young, black, you know, everything. Do you think that Josh Shapiro, because he is, frankly, because he's Jewish, faces a big problem within a certain fraction of the party?

[Carly Cooperman]

I mean, it's a concern I have. I did not intentionally leave off Jeff Shapiro.

[Ryan Graduski]

No, I know. I'm not blaming you. I'm just saying it just came on. Yeah.

[Carly Cooperman]

Because I think he's 100% one of the rising stars, future of the party. He, you know, people respond really well to him. He is. His, his favorability ratings left last year around the election. I mean, it was higher than almost any governor, I would argue, in any state. Upwards of 60%, very well liked, perceived as more moderate. And I know a lot of people that were disappointed that he was not the Democratic nominee.

[Ryan Graduski]

I was shocked.

[Carly Cooperman]

Yeah. I was genuinely shocked in terms of, like, how that went down.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. The meeting went badly. Yeah.

[Carly Cooperman]

No, yeah, exactly. I do have concern about a Jewish person too, though. It's tough. I mean, same with Pete Buttigiegian, having a gay person get elected. And by the way, Kamala Harris, there are a lot of things that went wrong with that campaign, but she was a woman. And it's not left to be unsaid that our country has not yet elected a female president either. So it's a big country and there are a lot of, you know, specific demographic.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. And I, I don't, I don't think that in the same way that I don't think, and this is just my personal take, I don't think the Democratic Party is going to nominate people to judge, in part because I don't think he can win over black voters in the south in a primary. I don't think that the Republican Party is going to Nominate a gay person either. Even if there was one, there's not one on the horizon. But if there was one, I don't think that that would be a possibility. Despite, you know, they like certain figures who are. Are gay. I don't think they would do that. I don't think that the Republican Party's gonna nominate a woman in the near future either. And I don't think that. And in my personal. I guess I don't think the Democratic Party will too, after being burned by Hillary and Kamala. Do you get that from. From Democratic voters?

[Carly Cooperman]

I completely agree. I mean, I don't know that it's being said as frankly and as honestly.

[Ryan Graduski]

As I'm just saying it like it is. I mean, whatever. I mean, people could disagree with me, but I think that that's what I. To see it.

[Carly Cooperman]

Oh, I do. Look, I also think, I mean, the, the movement that we're seeing in America around like a resurgence in religion, right? Like even the, the response to, you know, having a pope from America. I feel like there is this cultural moment right now in the country that is going back to, you know, what tends to be associated with right word policies, but it makes some of these demographic groups harder to see as somebody who's going to get elected nationally. And that's the reality of things right now.

[Ryan Graduski]

Okay, last two questions. One, what are like two or three things that you could think of that you think Republicans don't understand about Democrats, but they should.

[Carly Cooperman]

Republicans don't? Well, I would say for a lot of Democrats, you know, issues like climate change, you know, LGBTQ issues, things like that, that, you know, there's a values component to it. And I think that it matters to Democrats, but I think too many, many Democrats, it is not the top of mind or like issues that are driving them. And I think that at this point partially, you know, as, you know, giving credit to effective communications on the Republican side. And, you know, I think Democrats have been painted out to be this very far left leaning, really out of touch, like, like wacky liberal kind of thing. And I don't really think that speaks the truth to a lot of Democrats. And it's a messaging problem too. But I feel like there is a misperception at this point of where a lot of Democrats are.

[Ryan Graduski]

What are now? I mean, is the economy still the number one issue for Democrats going to government? Right. As of, as of right now, I guess stopping Trump would be number one and I guess the economy probably number two. What is a Ray? If you looked at all the polling and I've looked at a lot of polling, obviously going into the midterms and into these special elections. What are, give me one or two things that Democrats have to look up that's positive in this moment.

[Carly Cooperman]

Well, I think that there's a belief that Trump is going too far. I mean, tariffs, like tariffs one, two and three. Right. Like he, Trump got elected because he convinced people that he understood how expensive life was for them. You know, he said that everything was going to get more affordable. And I mean, it's been a roller coaster over the last two months with what's happening right now. But now he's having a message that we should all endure short term pain for this long term, complete reshuffling of how the global economy is going to work. And yet now he's backing away from that. And there's a lot of inconsistency. I don't see how this doesn't make life more expensive for people in the short term. And I think that it gives Democrats an opportunity to come back to their own economic message and connect with working class voters.

[Ryan Graduski]

That's a good positive for Democrats if they can hit on the moment. Because I always say different politics is like, like an open window. It's only open for a little while and then it's shut. And ask Chris Christie, once it's shut, it's sometimes it never reopens. Carly, where can people go to read more about you, your polling, your information?

[Carly Cooperman]

Yeah, thank you. I, I'm on X at Carly Cooperman and you know, I write op EDS and the like often on the Hill. Oh, and I go on Fox News.

[Ryan Graduski]

Okay. Well, Carly, thank you for being on this podcast. I really appreciate it.

[Carly Cooperman]

Thank you for having me.

[Ryan Graduski]

You're listening to it's the Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. We'll be right back after this message.

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[Ryan Graduski]

Our question today in the Ask Me Anything segment actually comes from on Twitter from a guy named as Arad, but Jared's misspelled but Jared. And if you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, you can either tweet at me at Ryan Graduski or you can email me ryanumbersgame podcast.com that's ryanumbers pluralgame podcast.com okay, to Jared's question, he asked, when will labor unions wake up and oppose mass migration as a wage suppression scheme? That is a great question, Jared. So Donald Trump's candidacy back in 2024, last year was probably the most. Not mo likely, but it was, it was the most pro union nomination Republicans had in decades. I mean, you have to probably go back to Nixon or even further. And it received actually very little union support as far as the organization goes. Not union voters, voters who are members of a union, but the organizations. Trump received a lot of support from police unions, some the Border Patrol union. And he got, I think, one Steam fitters union and one steel workers union, but they were local unions, and that was it. Famously, the Teamsters did not endorse, which is a big deal, but it wasn't like they jumped the Republican side, despite Trump doing everything he can to really ask them for it. But part of the problem with the unions is that they are partisan like they are activists within the Democratic Party. The AFL CIO is a wing of the Democratic Party. I don't think that they care so much about the best interest of their voters as much as they care about the best interests of the party as a whole. They're just an arm of it. There used to be a time in our country where a Democrat and unions, but a lot of times union and union activists really oppose illegal immigration and mass immigration. Cesar Sharbez, the great union activists of the 20th century used to call illegal aliens wetbacks on a regular basis. He was a very big opponent against illegal immigration. He was Hispanic. He was a Democrat. He was a progressive Democrat. He was a labor activist. But he realized that you could not be pro labor and pro illegal immigration and mass immigration. That was a very big part of the Democratic Party and unions as a whole. I don't think that's going to change unless the union leadership has changed, because I think where rank and file voters are within the union is not the same place that union leadership is. It's, it's a lot like the Catholic Church in many ways. The Catholic Church, the Cardinals are much more progressive than the younger priests are. And I think the union leadership's much more progressive and aligned with Democratic politicians than the actual rank and file members are. And I think that on that's not going to change until the non establishment figures within these unions start winning their union presidencies and their elections, which they are very expensive, costly elections where union members vote. That's I mean that's it. Basically until they change. I don't think that it's going to change. The Teamsters union is the only one I could see the major union may be changing now that they are at least willing to say, hey, our votes possibly up in the future. They did just endorse Josh Hawley for reelection in Missouri. I think that maybe they'll be the first ones if we see one, but I wouldn't hold my breath on seeing one. Hopefully one day. I think it's important. I think that they will benefit from that. They'd be a big boom for union and for for lower wage for workers to sit there and increase their wages if we crack down on mass migration. But they have to be there and their leadership has to be there. So thank you for that question, Jared. Please email me those questions though. They really really help with this podcast and you could like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcast. Wherever you get your podcast. Please give me a five star review if you like the show and we'll be back next week.

[Carly Cooperman]

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[Ryan Graduski]

You're listening to an I Heart podcast.