Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode Title:
It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Democrat Party Polling with Carly Cooperman
Release Date: May 15, 2025
Host: Ryan Graduski
Guest: Carly Cooperman, Democratic Pollster

Introduction

In this insightful episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, host Ryan Graduski delves into the intricate landscape of Democratic Party polling and leadership prospects with renowned Democratic pollster Carly Cooperman. The discussion sheds light on the current state of the Democratic Party, exploring its leadership vacuum, fundraising dynamics, candidate viability, and the broader electoral implications heading into the 2028 elections.

Current State of the Democratic Party

Ryan opens the conversation by highlighting the perceived leadership void within the Democratic Party. Unlike the Republican side, which has clear frontrunners like Vice President Vance and Marco Rubio for the 2028 presidential nomination, Democrats appear to lack a similarly defined leader. Ryan points out the recent leaks from Joe Biden's new book, Original Sin, which reveal concerns about Biden's cognitive health and the White House's efforts to conceal these issues (16:45).

Ryan Graduski: “As somebody whose grandfather had Louis B. Dementia... there were moments... when looking at Joe Biden reminded me of my grandfather in some of the worst states of his decline.” (22:15)

Carly concurs, emphasizing that the Democrats are grappling with a desperate need for fresh leadership to navigate the party out of its current disarray.

Polling Insights and Leadership Prospects

The core of the discussion revolves around the polling numbers naming potential Democratic leaders for the 2028 presidential race. Carly breaks down the latest poll figures, revealing that Kamala Harris leads with 27%—a significant but not overwhelming lead, attributed largely to name recognition as the former Vice President.

Carly Cooperman: “When aggregated, Democrats support Kamala Harris at 27. That's a very high number for all these polls, but a very weak number overall.” (25:10)

Following Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) secure second and third places with 16% and 13%, respectively. Other notable figures include Cory Booker at 9% and Gavin Newsom at 7%. Carly highlights the open nature of the primary, suggesting that without Harris, there's a significant leadership gap.

Carly Cooperman: “If you take Kamala Harris out of it because her numbers are mainly name id, you have this giant hole of who is the future, who is the leader of the Democratic Party.” (25:50)

Fundraising Dynamics and Grassroots Support

A critical aspect examined is the fundraising prowess of potential candidates. Carly underscores Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's formidable grassroots support, noting that in the first quarter of the year, AOC raised $9.6 million for her re-election in a safely Democratic district—a testament to her strong backing among small-dollar donors.

Carly Cooperman: “AOC is enormously popular in the party and possibly the future of it if Democratic voters across the country...” (26:30)

In contrast, other leaders like Chris Murphy and Jasmine Crockett have raised significantly less, indicating a concentration of grassroots enthusiasm around AOC.

Carly Cooperman: “Chris Murphy raised 8 million... Jasmine Crockett... raised 1.7 million, which is the same amount that Cory Booker raised.” (27:00)

Challenges Facing Democratic Leadership

The conversation shifts to the internal challenges within the Democratic Party, particularly the ideological splits between moderates and progressives. Carly points out that while figures like AOC and Bernie Sanders energize the progressive base, there’s a lack of consensus on party direction, especially in pivotal swing states.

Carly Cooperman: “The Democratic Party is not going to change in a way where you have some of the states that are really far left or have a stronger far left first. It's just not gonna happen now.” (28:30)

Furthermore, demographic and identity factors pose additional hurdles for potential candidates. Carly discusses the difficulties Jewish candidates like Josh Shapiro and LGBTQ candidates like Pete Buttigieg may face within the party, reflecting broader societal and cultural dynamics.

Carly Cooperman: “There is this cultural moment right now in the country that is going back to, you know, what tends to be associated with right world policies...” (32:41)

Geography's Impact on Primaries

Ryan emphasizes the significance of geographic strategy in primary elections, drawing parallels to historical Democratic nominees like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, who secured crucial support in states like Iowa and the Southeast.

Ryan Graduski: “Geography really matters where the party, not many things.” (27:15)

Carly agrees, noting that starting primaries in more moderate states like South Carolina can influence the trajectory of candidate viability, often sidelining more progressive contenders early in the race.

Carly Cooperman: “The Democratic Party is not going to change in a way where you have some of the states that are really far left or have a stronger far left first.” (28:22)

Union Support and Partisan Dynamics

Addressing labor unions, Carly explains the historical alignment between unions and the Democratic Party but expresses skepticism about a shift towards Republican support unless union leadership undergoes significant changes.

Carly Cooperman: “The Teamsters union is the only one I could see the major union may be changing now... but I wouldn't hold my breath on seeing one.” (38:30)

She draws parallels to institutional challenges within other organizations, such as the Catholic Church, where leadership may not always reflect the views of the broader membership.

Future Prospects and Conclusions

In wrapping up, Carly offers hope that Democrats can capitalize on the current dissatisfaction with Republican policies, particularly regarding economic issues and immigration. She believes that by reconnecting with working-class voters and reinforcing their economic message, Democrats can regain momentum.

Carly Cooperman: “There is a belief that Trump is going too far... it gives Democrats an opportunity to come back to their own economic message and connect with working class voters.” (35:31)

Ryan concurs, emphasizing the fleeting nature of political windows and the importance of strategic positioning ahead of the upcoming elections.

Ryan Graduski: “Different politics is like, like an open window. It's only open for a little while and then it's shut.” (36:00)

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the Democratic Party's polling numbers and the complex factors influencing its future leadership and electoral success. With Carly Cooperman's expert insights, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing Democrats as they navigate the path towards the 2028 presidential elections.

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Graduski:
  "As somebody whose grandfather had Louis B. Dementia... there were moments... when looking at Joe Biden reminded me of my grandfather in some of the worst states of his decline." (22:15)

• Carly Cooperman:
  “If you take Kamala Harris out of it because her numbers are mainly name id, you have this giant hole of who is the future, who is the leader of the Democratic Party.” (25:50)

• Carly Cooperman:
  “AOC is enormously popular in the party and possibly the future of it if Democratic voters across the country...” (26:30)

• Carly Cooperman:
  “The Democratic Party is not going to change in a way where you have some of the states that are really far left or have a stronger far left first. It's just not gonna happen now.” (28:30)

• Carly Cooperman:
  “There is a belief that Trump is going too far... it gives Democrats an opportunity to come back to their own economic message and connect with working class voters.” (35:31)

Resources Mentioned:

• Original Sin by Joe Biden – Upcoming book discussing Joe Biden's cognitive health and media coverage.
• Polling data on Democratic leadership prospects for 2028.

Follow Carly Cooperman:

• Twitter: @CarlyCooperman
• Op-eds and Articles: Regular contributions on The Hill and Fox News.

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