It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Florida’s Wildest House Race

Summary

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show (A Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky) – Feb 2, 2026
Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Florida’s Wildest House Race

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Episode Overview

This episode, hosted by Ryan Girdusky, takes a detailed and witty look at two topics:

1. A review of the new Melania Trump documentary, critiqued from the perspective of a political documentary fan.
2. A deep dive into the chaotic, transplant-heavy Republican primary for Florida’s 19th congressional district—described as “the craziest primary in America you’re not paying attention to.”

Girdusky uses sharp observations, candid stories, and granular election data to explore questions about identity, authenticity, and the future of demographic politics in America.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Melania Trump’s “Documentary” – Review and Reactions

(02:40–12:28)

• General Impressions:

  • Ryan Girdusky didn’t find the film “a traditional documentary” but more a narrated, personal project (as Melania had final cut).
    • “Almost the entire movie is narrated over… She’s so guarded in every aspect of her life that… she never forgets the camera’s there.” (07:55)

• Highlights:

  • “Soundtrack was 10 out of 10. A lot of Michael Jackson, a lot of ‘80s music, Tears for Fears, some ‘50s music.” (03:30)
  • Noteworthy behind-the-scenes moment with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris before the swearing-in.
    • “Joe looks completely lost, doesn’t exactly know where he is… Kamala is a wash of anguish, anger, disappointment—a three day bender. I mean it’s everything.” (04:30)

• Missed Opportunities:

  • Emotional scenes (e.g. Melania with a woman whose husband is a Gaza prisoner) lacked unscripted, immediate reactions.
  • The film is heavily narrated, not allowing real-time conversations or reactions from Melania.
    • “She’s so guarded in every aspect… I don’t think even her relationship with her designers and her stylist—Pierre, who’s very funny in the movie—she doesn’t loosen up.” (08:35)
  • Opportunities missed—including her thoughts on security threats, her personal life, and, notably, deeper interaction with her son Barron or more coverage of her relationship with Donald.

• Notable Absence:

  • Ivanka Trump is “barely in the movie… allegedly scenes where they were talking got cut.”
    • “Tiffany is seen in more shots than Ivanka is. That tells you something.” (10:39)

• Big Picture Takeaway:

  • Melania remains intensely private and the documentary reflects her guardedness.
    • “She never got the Vogue cover… never the pampering other First Ladies got. She’s had to take it upon herself to create her own media.” (09:25)
  • Final assessment:
    • “It could have been like three 25-minute miniseries on Netflix… I wouldn’t see it again.” (09:50)

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2. Florida’s 19th Congressional Race: The Wildest House Primary

(15:36–28:01)

• The Set-up:

  • Florida’s 19th is deep-red (Trump +29), centered around Fort Myers.
  • Byron Donalds, the incumbent, is vacating to run for Governor, leaving an open GOP primary.

• Wild Candidate Lineup:

  • Almost all major candidates are out-of-state transplants—a phenomenon being called the “Florida Man” effect, but with few actual Florida natives.

Key Candidates (highlights, backgrounds, and quirky facts):

• Madison Cawthorn:

  • Former North Carolina Rep., infamous for controversies and “messy” behavior in Congress.
  • “He very famously said he was invited by senators to coke-infused orgies… never gave names. He was a very messy person…” (16:45)
  • Girdusky shares an unflattering, humorous anecdote illustrating his reputation.
    • “Allegedly said to someone: ‘I want to bleep you against a wall.’ To which she replied: ‘How are you going to do that, Madison?’” (17:53)

• Chris Collins:

  • Ex-NY Congressman, resigned after insider trading conviction and Trump pardon.
  • “He has the money to be somebody. But resigning from Congress is a big thing.” (19:15)

• Ola (Persian/Middle Eastern fashion designer):

  • Ran for NY-19, now running in FL-19.
  • Girdusky notes: “Never heard her talk about policy. Ever.” (20:25)

• Catalina Lauf:

  • Former Commerce Dept. advisor; ran in Illinois before.
  • Girdusky’s take: “She is not ready for prime time… did not know the issues.”
    • “I was asking some questions about immigration, and man, oh man, she did not know the issues. It was painful at times.” (21:38)

• Jim Oberweis:

  • Perennial Illinois candidate (for Senate, Congress, Governor … and now Florida at age 80).
  • “Boomers got to give it up a little bit. Like, you’ve been running for two decades. It’s time to relax, Jim.” (23:00)

• John Strand:

  • Actually from Florida; a pardoned January 6 participant.

• Jim Schwartzel:

  • Owner of a local talk radio station, also a Floridian.

• Money and Polls:

  • “No candidate has over 8, 9% of the vote… Chris Collins is leading with 9%, Madison Cawthorn 8%, Jim [Oberweis] 8%, and Jim Schwartzel with 5%.” (25:40)
  • “Everyone is waiting for Carmen Marcino, the popular Lee County Sheriff, to get in—a real homegrown Floridian.” (25:55)

• Underlying Theme: The Transplant Problem

  • The flood of non-native candidates gets to the heart of what “representation” means in Florida and Texas, two boom states with ever-shifting populations.
  • “It raises questions for Floridians and Texans: how much does it matter that their state is represented by someone who’s from there more than 12 minutes?” (26:35)
  • Local connection remains—Staten Island example: “You have to be born in the oven of an Italian pizzeria on Staten Island to be a congressional candidate.” (27:08)
  • Possible future: “By 2030 there will be eight new seats in these states… and the mad dash of candidates from other states will be crazy.” (26:18)

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3. Demographic Data: Births, States, and Political Consequences

(31:35–37:51 — “Ask Me Anything” segment)

• Illegal Immigration & State Dynamics:

  • Responding to a listener: “Trump is not just deporting illegals from red states; there are millions living in red states.” (31:39)
  • Headlines didn’t match ground reality—blue state ‘shipping’ and resistance are overblown or misreported.

• Fertility and Demographics:

  • Republican “Trump states” are seeing more births than Harris (“blue”) states.
  • “U.S. preliminary births for 2025: Trump states had 2.18 million births to Harris’s 1.42.” (33:57)
    • Blue states’ births down 1.25% versus red states down 0.29%.
  • Sharpest declines among black Americans’ fertility rates.
    • “From 2016 to 2025, births from black mothers fell from 464,000 to 354,000—a 24% decline.” (34:33)
  • Pew Research notes a values divide:
    • “A plurality of young Trump supporters say their goal is to have a family… It’s not even in the top 10 for young Democrats.” (35:45)
  • “Multiracial” category is defined by the mother’s race.

• Political Forecasting and Demographics:

  • “The numbers for white mothers giving birth is like night and day from blue states to red states.” (36:09)
  • Girdusky suggests these demographic trends will intensify political lopsidedness in the future.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Melania’s Documentary:

  • “Melania never got a fair shake ever from the media. She never got the Vogue cover, she never got the pampering that other first ladies got.” (09:25)
  • “There’s so much there that she is witness to… and we don’t get it.” (08:55)

• On Florida’s Race — The Outsiders Angle:

  • “Florida 19: Not a single Florida man. Almost everyone running isn’t from the state—they’ve run for office elsewhere!” (15:51)
  • “If Carmine Marcino jumps in and blows everyone out of the way, that’s a good sign that they want someone who’s been there more than 30 seconds.” (27:39)

• On Perennial Candidates:

  • “The boomers got to give it up a little bit. Like, you’ve been running for two decades. It’s time to relax, Jim.” (23:00)

• On Demographic Trends:

  • “The decline in fertility among black Americans is something that should be studied.” (34:33)
  • “You see this in Pew data—a plurality of young Trump supporters’ top goal is to have a family. For young Democrats, it’s not even in the top 10.” (35:45)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Melania Documentary Review: 02:40 – 12:28
• Florida’s 19th District Primary Breakdown: 15:36 – 28:01
• Ask Me Anything & Demographics: 31:35 – 37:51

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Episode Tone & Style

• Ryan Girdusky’s narration is conversational, sharp, sometimes irreverent, and always candid; mixing granular political knowledge with behind-the-scenes stories, the episode serves as both hard analysis and entertaining political gossip.
• Memorable, sometimes snarky quips and real insider anecdotes pepper the rundown, offering listeners both context and color you’re unlikely to get from typical campaign trail coverage.

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Summary

This episode is a must-listen for political junkies interested in the future of GOP politics, the battle over authenticity in the age of constant political migration, and the way demographic trends are fundamentally reshaping America’s political map. Girdusky’s blend of sharp wit, policy analysis, and real-world anecdotes make even the wildest Florida race both approachable and insightful.

Transcript

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[Ryan Gradusky]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gradusky. Thank you guys for being here. On Thursday, I was invited to the screening of the Melania Trump movie and I wanted to give a review to you guys. I promised it to my followers on Twitter and I said I'm going to say it for the podcast. I reviewed you guys before I get into any numbers because I thought it was very interesting. The movie is marketed as a documentary, but it's not really a documentary. Not in the traditional sense of the word. Now I love a good documentary. I especially have documentaries that focus on very important or very interesting people at crossroads in their lives. The best political documentaries is like two that come to mind. Mitt, about Mitt Romney in 2012. That opening scene where he realizes he's going to lose the presidential election is devastating and incredible. The movie Wiener, about Anthony Wieners run for mayor, is phenomenal film work, like phenomenal because you see a truly sociopathic man at work. You see him destroy his marriage in real time. You see all this stuff. And I hope he comes on the podcast. He's been invited many times, but it's so, so good. Best documentary about a famous person I've ever seen is the movie about Joan Rivers called A Piece of Work. Her documentary that follows her during the year that she won the Apprentice is absolutely. I've probably seen it 50 times. It's incredible, incredible, credible filmmaking. So I come to this movie liking the genre, right? I'm not someone who's like just there because I was just invited, although that's probably why I did go. But I enjoy the genre. It's not a traditional documentary in the sense where the subject is like having a day in the life and then the cameraman is asking questions and you just like see them following. Almost the entire movie is narrated over, right? Like almost the entire movie. Before I get critical, let me say what I liked about the movie. First of all, soundtrack was 10 out of 10. A lot of Michael Jackson, a lot of 80s music, Tears for Fears, some 50s music. Liked all of it. Soundtrack was definitely 10 out of 10. And she says that Michael Jackson's her favorite singer in the movie. So there's. I could tell that she put her personal stamp on it. Secondly, there is a scene in the swearing in where it's behind the. But I've never seen this before and I've seen tons of political footage. It's a scene, the swearing in behind the stage when right before she's about to go on and they pan the camera and it's Kamala and Joe and their faces worth the entire price of admission. Joe looks completely lost, doesn't exactly know where he is, doesn't know how he feels. You could tell he kind of doesn't want to be next to Kamala. Kamala is a wash of anguish, anger, disappointment, a three day bender. I mean it's everything. I mean it is truly incredible. That could have been the entire movie that was just so great. And I, I actually can't believe they allow themselves to be filmed and signed off on it because it was really shocking how that happened. And the procedure was pretty interesting too. Like how it takes, there's like five hours for them to switch for the White House team. All the furniture between the presidents and like the order in which they have to go in for the swearing and all that's very fascinating. Like if you like political stuff. Like, I found that to be fascinating. She's barely in that, aside from being there, like, but she's not talking to anybody. And lastly, there was a scene where she spoke to a woman who, who was a prisoner in Gaza and her husband at the time of the filming was still a prisoner in Gaza. That was very emotional. And before. I'll get some of my criticism of the whole thing in one second. And then I really enjoy the scene where her, she was, she was the same Patrick at cathedral to light a candle for her deceased mother. It was nice. And they have a conversation with a priest. This is where the movie kind of loses me and why it didn't. I didn't find it that interesting. Melania goes to see this woman who was a prisoner in Gaza for months. Her husband is still in a prisoner Gaza. She's telling about how she thought they were going to die in Gaza, how her husband thought he's going to be suffocated to death. And it's. She's weeping and crying. She's like, I hope he knows I love him and I root for him. And Melania embraces her. They leave the scene. Melania goes to the elevator and you could see her take out a tissue to start wiping her eyes. And then they cut. Now I want to see her reaction afterwards. I want to hear her not narrow because she's just narrating No, I want to hear her immediate conversation. Donald makes her laugh a couple times in the movie. Their relationship is so mysterious to a lot of people about how they feel. But there's a lot of. You could tell there's some very tender moments. They don't talk. You don't ever really hear what's making their, like, relationship move. Because there's something there that's not just, you know, a wealthy guy and a model. She talks about Baron. I wish she talked to Baron. At one point, her and her dad are talking about her deceased mother. Her dad's like giving this long talk and she just cuts him off. A narration. The whole thing is just narrated. And she's so guarded. She's so guarded in every aspect of her life that I don't think even her relationship with her designers and her stylist Pierre, who's very funny in the movie, she doesn't loosen up. Like, you know, sometimes people who are the subject of documentaries or reality shows, they see it just. I forget the camera's there. She never forgets the cameras there. You could tell from the second the film starts, the second it ends. She knows where the camera is at all times. It's only shot over 20 days. Maybe if it was shot over a longer period of time, she would have kind of loosened up a little bit. I doubt it. I don't know whether it's her training as a model or being Eastern European or being the first lady and receiving all the negative media coverage. I thought it was important as a film because Milani never got a fair shake ever from the media. She never got the Vogue cover, she never got the pampering that other first Ladies got. And she has had to take it upon herself to create her own media. And that's why the movie is important. And that's why I thought that what she did, how she did it was important. But it was. It could have been so much better. You know, her debriefing about her feelings at any point about the entire thing would have been great. Talking about how tired she was. I mean, she did more as a 22 hour day, just really going into ups and downs of it or feeling about the campaign. There's also a really interesting conversation. They thought they were going to do the swearing it outside. They moved it inside. Remember that? She said to the security team, if it's outside, Baron will not get out of the car. Clearly out of security concerns. And they're talking a bit about security. I would have loved to talk to her. I hear her talk about her husband being shot. I would love to have heard her. The threats of her own life. Like there's so much there that she is witnessed to that she's especially witnessed to. And we don't get it. Like we don't get like the brief moments we get her to loosen up a little bit are like speckles in a very big, you know, rough. Like there's speckles of diamonds in a very big rough. It's not, it's not enough to warn an entire two hour documentary. And if you like fashion, her design that her dress being designed for the Naga Ball was pretty cool. But there's not like, there's not a ton there. It doesn't warrant a two hour documentary. It could have been like, you know, three 25 minute miniseries on Netflix, like that kind of thing. Overall, I wouldn't see it again. I wouldn't play it again. I think that it she so much, especially the director she had, she had Brett Ratner who directed like really big movies as the director. I kind of think that that was, that that was a lot of missed opportunities. Also. One last thing before I go into something else. Allegedly she got final approval and one thing that she cut from the movie was Ivanka. Now if you remember back in the first term administration, there was law, there was a lot of whispers, the two of them have feuded that they weren't that close. That Ivanka wanted to turn the east wing of the White House into her own office. And Melania put a kibosh on it. And Ivanka is barely in this movie in the background if at all. I thought it was very, very, very interesting. There's no close up shots of her. Allegedly scenes where they were talking got cut. This is rumors. Maybe it's not true, it's all alleged. But I thought it was very interesting how little of it was there and how invisible she was. I mean Tiffany is seen in more shots than Ivanka is. So that's that. I mean that tells you something. I don't know. I think she could have offered a lot more. I think she's actually interesting what she has witnessed to. And she won't share it. I probably, she probably never will. She probably is just not that kind of person who shares this thing. She's probably actually a very private person who wound up in a very extraordinary situation. Situation. So. And I think that's probably a preview what her post presidency life is going to be. I doubt we're gonna see a lot of her out there. I think she's going to become a much more private citizen. Not like Michelle Obama who's like I want to be, you know, respected and no one talk my clothes. I think that she doesn't. It's not going to be a wine fest. I think she's just going to go back to being a private citizen. I think she's a very private person. Anyway, that's my take on the movie. That's how I felt about it. I just wanted to give you guys. A lot of people are saying, well, they want to see it. And that was how I felt about it. Okay, up next, I'm going to sit there and talk about the craziest primary in America happening right now that you guys are not paying attention to. Stay tuned.

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Hey, this is US Olympic gold medalist Tara Davis Woodhull and I'm US Paralympic.

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Gold medalist Hunter Woodhull.

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As athletes, our lives are about having a clear path and a team that.

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[Ryan Gradusky]

There is an election going on in Florida. Florida is known. Florida's had a good couple of years. They have definitely had a glow up as a state. Right. But there's the long notion of Florida man. Florida man acts chaotic. Why is Florida man wrestling an alligator with, you know, a beer in his pocket? Just because it's Florida. They just do crazy things. It is part of the state's long and honored history. Well, the interesting thing is there's an election going on in Florida's 19th congressional district. There are no Florida men. Almost every person who's running for Congress in this district is not from the state and has either served office in a different state or ran for office in a different state. So the district Florida 19 is around Fort Myers area. Byron Donalds is the current representative and he's obviously retiring to go run for governor. He's got millions of dollars and a Trump endorsement. He's very likely to be the next governor of Florida. Well, it's a district that Trump won by 29 points. So the primary is the whole election. Right? There's no like the General is doesn't matter because a Democrat really can't win in this district. Okay, here's the list of people running for office in Florida's 19th congressional district. I'm going to go through the big names, right? Not everybody, because there's a couple people that I don't, I've never heard of. But first one is Madison Cawthorne. Now for those of you who don't remember Madison Cawthorn is. He's a. I guess he's a paraplegic. He's in a wheelchair. And he served as a member of Congress for North Carolina's 11th district for one term. Madison. Madison. I've met Madison a few times and I've talked to him. He was very young when he got elected, so I'm going to excuse a bit of it, but he did not represent himself well while a member of Congress. He very famously said that he was invited by senators to Coke infest co confused orgies. And he never, obviously he never gave the name of the senators who invited him to these Coke fueled orgies. I doubt it was Chuck Grassley at 91 years old, but. But who knows? They never went substantiated his claims. He had controversies where he was. Old videos had surfaced where he was naked in them. He had a rather ugly divorce in the middle of it. It was all very messy. He was a very messy person, which is why he has emerged as a Floridian now, not North Carolina. And he's running for Congress. He's been trying to make this reemergence of a political career happen for some time. He was floated as to wanting to run for U.S. senate in Florida at one point. That was what the word on the street was among political consultants. Allegedly Trump world wants nothing to do with him and they don't want him to be a member of Congress because he's a bit of a distraction and it's showing. I don't know, I never disliked him personally. I'll tell you guys a story. There was this bill, this is all a legend. Allegedly. There was this billionaire, very well known billionaire and his billionaires, when they get involved in political stuff, right, what they do is they have like a handler who handles all their political givings, their political donations, and it's their gatekeeper and this political gatekeeper for this billionaire donor who is very well known. They were at an event and I guess he didn't know that the girlfriend of the gatekeeper was there. And he got close to the girlfriend of the gatekeeper and allegedly said to them, I Want to bleep you against a wall. To which the girlfriend said, how are you going to do that, Madison? Allegedly. Allegedly. Allegedly. Although it was told to me by the boyfriend of the, of the gatekeeper. So what I'm going to say is messy, just a messy kind of person for the last couple years. Wish him well. Don't know if he really has that much of a chance. Second person running is Chris Collins. Chris Collins is a much lower profile. He represented New York's 27th district in upstate New York from 2013 to 2019. Why did he quit in 2019 in the middle of his term? Well, he was indicted by the FBI. He was charged for insider trading and making false statements. In 2018, he pled guilty to some of those charges to serve a 26 month prison term and he was pardoned by Trump three months into his term. He has since emerged as a Floridian. He's a very wealthy man. He definitely has the money to be somebody. But I don't know, resigning from Congress is, is a big thing. Next person is a woman named Ola. I'm guys, I'm so sorry. Ola is, I know, I know her personally and I only know her as Ola. I don't even know her last name. Whatever. She's, she's Persian of some sort, a Persian Middle Eastern anyway, although I've known her for quite some time. She was a fashion designer. She all of a sudden decided she became, I met her through our mutual friend Gina Loudon and I've known her socially for years. She's very pleasant. She's had a very interesting life story. She never talked ever about wanting to be a candidate for Congress or office ever. And then all of a sudden announced she was running for office for Congress in 2020. She was a candidate in New York, 19th district. She lost the primary up in New York Yorker running in Florida. I, I, I like her personally. I have never heard her like, you know when you're political people and you talk about issues on policy, never, not one time I've ever heard her talk about policy ever. So I don't know, she has to, I think she has a support of a local state rep, so, but she would need a lot of money to sit there and get there. But once again, another New Yorker running next candidate is Catalina Luff. Catalina was a former advisor the U.S. department of Commerce. She ran for Congress. This is her third run. Her first run was Illinois's 14th district in 2020. Her second run was in Illinois's 11th district in 2020. Two, her third run now is in Florida's 19th in 2026. She has some backing of some pretty important people, which I think is why she's going to be a real contender. I have talked to Catalina over the phone. One of our mutual friends asked me to have a conversation with her about policy. Personally, my own opinion, she is not ready for prime time. She really didn't know about a lot of issues. And when she first ran in 2019, she wanted to cast herself as the like anti AOC. And during my conversation with her, I kept on saying, oh, are your family. Both sides of your family are like, I guess, you know, Hispanic of some sort. I think she's like, I think she's Puerto Rican, but I don't know. She said some, some sort of Hispanic. And I said, but your last name is not Hispanic at all. And she's like, well, my father's family dates back from like the American Revolution. And I was like, well, that's some way more interesting story than, you know, you were Puerto Rican or whatever and your family immigrated and your mom, like, it wasn't like, it wasn't a true rags to riches story. It was kind of like half baked a little bit. And I think the story of being from a proud lineage that dates back to the American Revolution is way more interesting. She did not, and she did not want to pursue it and she was just, I was asking some questions about immigration and man, oh man, she did not know the issues. It was painful at times. She's another candidate running for office. Then there's Jim Oberweiss. He is a former state senator also from the state of Illinois. Jim has ran for office for the U.S. senate in 2002, for the U S. Senate in 2004, for the governor's office in 2006, for Congress in 2008, for the Illinois Republican State Central Committee, for the Illinois State Senate, for the U.S. senate in 2014, for Congress in 2020 and now for Congress in 2026. Jim, 80 years old and he is still running. The boomers got to give it up a little bit. Like you've been running for two decades. It's time to relax. You don't have to. It doesn't mean you have a place in the world. But it's time to relax, Jim. All right? It's been 20 years of you running for office. You've been successful a few times for a state Senate, but maybe at 80, being a freshman congressman is not your calling. I my own personal opinion, there's another person running, John Strand, I think he is actually from Florida. His claim to fame was he was a pardon January 6th rider. And then there was. There is Jim Schwartzel. He is the owner of a local talk radio station. So he is also a candidate from office. I know people now, is he ready for prime time? I don't know. It's all so murky. The Jim Alba Weiss has tons of money. The Illinois City center and Jim Schwal also has a lot of money. Both have over a million dollars. The polls show that it is that no candidate has over 8, 9% of the vote. Chris Collins is leading with 9%. Madison Cawthon with 8, Jim with 8 and then the other Jim Schwarzer with 5. Jim otherwise with 8. Right now, I think everyone is running and waiting for car. This guy named Carmen Marcino, he is the Lee County Sheriff, very popular. He's, he's, he's, you know, had interest in it. He's an elected official. He's from Florida. But it actually raises the question, right, for, especially for Florida and for Texas, that as they get all these new Republican seats, especially in 2030, there is going to be eight new seats in those states and they'll almost all be Republican. Right? The mad dash of elected officials from other states to move to those states to run for those offices is going to be be crazy. And they're all going to be vying for different endorsements either from the past President Trump or from the current Republican nominee or whomever. And it's all going to be bartering and fighting for these open seats in these states with huge booming populations where a big percentage of the population are transplants. The transplant vote is large. And it's really a question to Texans, to Floridians, how much does it matter that their state is represented by somebody who's from for more than 12 minutes? Right. Like perfect example, there's a district in New York, New York 11, which is the Staten Island Congressional district. You must be from Staten island to represent this district. Staten Islanders will not vote from somebody on the Brooklyn side of the district. They will not. It is very important that they are represented. It is a big, big thing. You have to be like born and bred in an Italian pizzeria. You have to be born in the oven of an Italian pizzeria on Staten island to be a State Island Congressional candidate. They mean something by it. I think the immense transplants of it all changes the relationship some of these districts are going to have with their elected officials. Who are they even there? Are they. I mean, they're not from there, but are they there at all? Liz Cheney wasn't from Wyoming, right? So like it's it's very obvious she didn't she never really lived in Wyoming. I think she had a P.O. box and a house which her kids didn't go to school there. She wasn't from there. She didn't know anybody there. She never saw up a job there, a business there. It's not unlikely. It's not like it never ever happens. It h There's a number of representatives who don't live in their district and senators who don't live in their district or state. I think in high transplant areas though, which are super Republican where you can be elected representative for your entire life, it's going to become much, much more of a of of a topic of conversation and a much more interesting and I don't know how Floridians want to approach it. I don't know Texas want to approach it. This is a perfect example. If Carmine Marcino, the Le Lee County Sheriff jumps in and blows everyone out of the way, I think it's a good, good sign of it that they're, you know, that they're little territorial that they want someone who's been there for more than 30 seconds. But this is ground zero for this. This is ground zero for the case of is is a district open because the state is just transplant central. Anyway, next up is Ask Me Anything.

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[Ryan Gradusky]

This is the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryanumbers game podcast.com that's ryan@Numberspluralgame podcast.com I'm sorry that, that last segment was a little spicy. You know I try to keep it pretty clean for you guys. Guys. But I had to tell you guys the story because that was interesting. Okay, this one's from my old friend Peter fomo. Peter said Ryan, I've heard one commentator said that Trump should focus on removing illegals from red states and he would get cooperation and not surging into blue states where confrontation is inevitable. I would assume that a red states first party would funnel illegals to blue states and eventually Trump would have them confront protests. Okay, let me just answer this question before I read the whole thing. Peter, later. So Trump is deporting more illegals from red states than blue states because they work with ICE agents. This is not true that red states funnel illegals to blue states. There are millions of illegal aliens in red states. A lot. Millions and millions. And I don't know where you've heard, I mean, at the border during, during Abbott's time, they were shipping them to a few counties in blue states. But it wasn't, it wasn't like a big, it wasn't a big thing. Like it didn't, it didn't happen. It just doesn't still go on like this is not of what's happening. Trump is deporting more illegals from red states than blue states because he's working with them. And he is deporting some from blue states as well where he's met with confrontations from protesters. So that whoever told you that Peter, or whoever you listen to is not telling an accurate story. Okay, next question is from Mike. Mike gave a very long summary about eating habits, about Ozempic. And Mike, I agree with you, but it's, it's too long of a rant to read the, the question part of it. In one of your episodes, you mentioned 60% of birth were in red states. Trump won. This sounds impressive until I realized that Trump won 58% of the Electoral College. So it makes sense. 50, 60% of births would be from about 58% of the population. Is there any further data suggesting conservatives are actually having more kids? And if so, for how long has this trend been happening. Any idea if this breakdown of what demographic multiracial births actually entail? Okay, so yes, Trump won about 60% of the Electoral College. That does not equate to 60% the overall population. Remember that like there are not that many people who live in Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, Kansas. It doesn't. It's not a perfect equalizer of the overall population or the percentage. Because he won 51% of the popular vote. Right. Or 49.9% of the popular vote. Whatever it was, it's not a perfect equal. So the 60% is actually very impressive. When you look at U.S. preliminary births for 2025, Trump states had 2.18 million births to Harris's 1.42 million births. Harris states from 2024 to 2025 declined by 1.25%. Trump states declined by 0.29%. And among white Americans, the numbers were even more one sided. Trump states had 1.165 million children from white women. Harris states had point had 625,000. So it's almost two to one. It's enormously lopsided. Also take into account that a lot of Trump states in Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Florida, huge black populations and black fertility rate is seeing the seeing a massive decline right now. Like the decline in fertility among black Americans is something that should be studied. From 2016 to 2025, the black the births of black Americans from black mothers fell from 464,000 to 354,000. It was a 24% decline over the course of nine years. All other births declined by 9%. It's a 2.6 ratio. Right. That is the source of CDC wonder. And this guy on Twitter named Charlie Smerkley was one who pointed out very smart guy when it comes to birth data. When you analyze that the demographic with the fastest declining birth rates live in Trump states and Trump had not 60% of the overall population don't live in those 58% of where Trump got the electoral college vote. That shows the enormity of how the population is changing. And you see this in other data, you see in data like the Pew Research of what is your goal in life? A majority of young Trump supporters to say, have a family or plurality of young Trump supporters. They have a family, have children. And it's not even in the top 10 for Democrat Young Democrats. And there's just an opinion about what values you have as far as, as far as children and family go. And I think that is going to Increase that lopsidedness. I mean, the numbers for white mothers giving children, giving birth is like night and day from blue states to red states. As far as what does it mean for multiracial? They're looking at the race of the mother. Right? Right. They're not looking at the race of the child. So when they say multiracial, it means the mother is multiracial. That's what the like that's so it's not like it's not a perfect even, even 1, 2, 3. When it's like when they looked at the data and I haven't super examined this. So take with a grain of salt. When they looked at data of white mother, white father, black mother, black father, the numbers are much, much lower just because there's a lot more interracial marriage and inter racial, you know, coupling. So the numbers are much, much different. When they say multiracial, it's the race of the mother is multiracial, which is why it's spiking, because it's second generation births. Anyway, that's the show for today. Hope you guys liked it. I hope you guys liked the my, my review of a movie for the first time on this podcast and then this congressional race which I am going to look at. I think I'm gonna start making one episode a week about a primary election and why it is or a primary election but a midterm election. Focus in on one, give you guys the specifics of what matters and why it matters and hopefully have some of the candidates running for office. If you guys like that idea, give me an email and tell me. And if you like this podcast, please like and subscribe to the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast. Wherever you get your podcast or on YouTube, please give me a subscription there. It means a lot. Thank you guys. I will see you all on Wednesday.

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