It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Gerrymandering in California

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Gerrymandering in California
Date: August 21, 2025
Host: Brian Graduski (guest hosting)
Network: iHeartPodcasts

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the history, mechanics, and current political implications of gerrymandering in California, particularly in light of Governor Gavin Newsom and state Democrats unveiling a new congressional redistricting map. Host Brian Graduski breaks down the historical roots of partisan redistricting, analyzes how California's new map reshapes representation, and discusses the ongoing battles between Democrats and Republicans over political power in the Golden State.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. The Current State of Gerrymandering in California

• Context: California has 52 congressional districts—the largest in the nation.
  • Under the current map, Democrats hold 43 seats; Republicans have nine.
  • In the 2024 election, President Trump won the popular vote in 11 districts, but Republicans only represent nine.
  • Example: Two Democratic congressmen, Adam Gray (CA-13) and Josh Harder (CA-9), represent districts that Trump carried, revealing a disparities in party representation.
    "Trump won 38% of the statewide vote. Republicans hold just 19% of the seats. It's one of actually the most extreme partisan gerrymanders when you look at it like that." (04:31)

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2. Historical Recap: Who Started Gerrymandering?

• Background: The host refutes the popular notion that Republicans "started" gerrymandering:
  • 1991 Redistricting: Out of 435 U.S. House seats, Republicans had full control over redistricting for just five seats. Democrats held 138.
  • States like New Jersey, Florida, Texas, Mississippi, Maryland, and Virginia were under Democratic control, allowing manipulation to favor Democrats.
  • Even during Republican presidential victories, congressional seats in major states didn’t reflect Republican voter strength.
  • Democrats deployed gerrymandering to safeguard their majority for decades.

  "They purposely carved up Texas six ways from Sunday... ensuring that Democrats would win 53% of all seats in super safe districts, despite the fact that Republican congressional candidates won 53% of the popular vote in the state." — Brian Graduski [10:14]

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3. The California Redistricting Playbook

• The Burton Brothers: Philip and John Burton, Democratic powerbrokers, masterminded California's gerrymanders in the 80s and 90s.
  • 1981 Map: Crafted to maximize Democratic seats, cited by the New York Times as cheating Republicans of House representation.
  • 1991 Map: Built on previous gerrymanders, with the help of Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, Republican Gov. Pete Wilson’s veto forced the courts to intervene—maps that essentially protected incumbent Democrats remained.

  "Democrats used the Voting Rights Act, Section 2, and partisan gerrymandering and lawsuits to protect the map because they thought it would prevent the impossibility of Republicans winning back the House in the 90s." — Brian Graduski [13:17]

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4. The Myth of the 1994 Republican Revolution

• Graduski contends that the 1994 shift of House control wasn’t due to Newt Gingrich’s Contract With America, but to backlash against Hillary Clinton’s healthcare proposals ("HillaryCare").

  "The reason that Republicans won was not so much to do with Newt Gingrich or his Contract With America. It was to do with Hillary Clinton and her attempt to take over the nation's health care system with HillaryCare." [15:23]

• He emphasizes that Democrats had historically held the levers of redistricting:

  "People imagine that there's this time when people didn't use political power to influence congressional redistricting and they are living in a fantasy." [17:35]

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5. Analysis of Newsom's 2025 Redistricting Map

(see [21:50] for the start of the discussion on the new map)

• Major Changes:

  • Four Republican districts would move from "lean/likely Republican" to "safe Democrat."
    • LaMalfa: Trump +25 → Harris +12
    • Kiley: Trump +4 → Harris +10
    • Issa: Trump +15 → Harris +3
    • Calvert: Trump +6 → Harris +14
  • Some Republican districts become ultra-safe (Trump +12 → Trump +30).
  • Senate leader Mike McGuire is accused of drawing himself a safe Democratic seat, paralleling historic self-serving maneuvers.

• Democratic Strategy:

  • Instead of eliminating up to 6 or 7 GOP seats, Democrats aim to fortify vulnerable incumbents in swing districts, reflecting caution amid changing demographics.
  • Notable statistic: Since the 2024 election, California Republicans gained 138,000 new registrants vs. 12,000 for Democrats. Independents gained most at 155,000.

    "Politics is not a pond. It is not stagnant, it is a river. It is changing every day... Vibes change, parties change." [23:50]

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6. Potential Risks: “Gerrymander” or “Dummymander”?

• Shifting Political Ground:

  • The Democrats’ map is more “aggressive and sloppy” than the GOP’s Texas map.
  • If California continues trending more Republican (even a 5 to 10-point shift over the next cycles), several Democratic seats could become competitive, or even flip.
  • The aggressive gerrymander could inadvertently imperil Democratic incumbents—a “dummymander.”

  “If the state shifts half the rate as it did over the last eight years... then Democrats doomed a lot of their own incumbents, including incumbents who just gave up tons of Democratic voters... It might not work for anybody.” [27:01]

• Enactment & Challenges:

  • Democrats have a super-majority and can pass the map through the state legislature.
  • To enact, Newsom must place it as a constitutional amendment on the November ballot.
    • Former Governor Schwarzenegger and Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy committed ~$150 million to fight the measure.
    • A UC Berkeley poll found voters oppose Newsom’s plan 64–36%.

    “It could ultimately backfire on Democrats and their efforts to redistrict.” [28:40]

    • Graduski notes the 2026 redistricting is a prelude to Newsom's real aim: fortifying Democratic prospects (including his own) ahead of 2028.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Partisan History:

  “Even in 1991, the New York Times... said California in the 80s... was carved up and gerrymandered to support Democratic congressmen.” — Brian Graduski [09:41]

• Strategic Parallels:

  “Remember when I told you that in Texas back in the 1990s, state senator Eddie Bernice Johnson gerrymandered herself a majority-black district... That same exact thing is happening in California today.” — Brian Graduski [22:55]

• On Newsom’s Motives:

  “In the end, I don't think Newsom cares so much about this map for 2026 because it's not about 2026, it's about 2028. It's about whether or not he will or won't be the Democratic nominee...” — Brian Graduski [29:14]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:57] — Episode Introduction and Context
• [04:31] — California's Disproportional Representation
• [06:45] — History of Gerrymandering: 1991 Redistricting Primer
• [10:14] — Texas' 1990s Gerrymander Explained
• [13:17] — The Burton Brothers and California’s 1981/91 Gerrymanders
• [15:23] — 1994 House Takeover: Clinton vs. Gingrich
• [17:35] — Persistent Power Imbalances in U.S. Politics
• [21:50] — Detailed Analysis of Newsom's Proposed 2025 Map
• [23:50] — California’s Political Shifts and Registration Trends
• [27:01] — Potential for "Dummymander": Long-Term Risks
• [28:40] — Ballot Fight, Public Opinion, and Republican Opposition
• [29:14] — Newsom’s Political Ambitions

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Q&A: Ask Me Anything (Post-content Highlights)

• Senate without 17th Amendment:

  • If state legislatures still chose senators, Republicans would hold 62 seats, Democrats 38.
  • Map details: Midwest, Georgia, and Arizona would flip Republican; Maine would be Democratic.
  • Alaska and Minnesota have split partisan tendencies.

• Colorado’s “Blue” Shift:

  • Decline in energy jobs (from 33k→20k) is minor compared to broader forces: progressive migration and changes in lifestyle attracting left-leaning populations.

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Conclusion

This episode offers a rich, critical look at gerrymandering in California—rooted in history, but laser-focused on current maneuvers and their future impact. Graduski’s detailed breakdown connects past and present, puncturing partisan myths and highlighting the complex dance between demography, districting, and electoral outcomes. The episode is essential listening for anyone looking to understand the true numbers behind redistricting battles.

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Transcript

[Brian Graduski]

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[Brian Graduski]

Welcome back to a Numbers Game podcast with Brian Graduski. Thank you all for being here again on this episode. Okay, so I know I've talked about this issue in the past. I like to have a variety. But I have to do a deep dive episode on gerrymandering because of Gavin Newsom and California. That's right, California, here we come. Okay, over the weekend, Democrats in the state unveiled their new proposed partisan gerrymandered map. Now Remember, California has 52 congressional districts, the most of any state. Under the current map. Democrats hold 43 seats and Republicans have nine. In the 2024 election, President Trump won 11 seats. There are two Trump seats that have a Democratic congressman. The 13th District, which is represented by Democrat Adam Gray, he won his election by 555 votes out of 130 something thousand cast. It was a very, very tight election. And Josh harder In California, 9th is the other Democrat. So the state begins with overwhelming Democrat and Democratic Congressional Democratic Congressmen being disproportionately represented compared to the percentage that President Trump received statewide. Trump won 38% of the statewide vote. Republicans hold just 19% of the seats. It's one of actually the most extreme partisan gerrymanders when you look at it like that, aside from maybe like New Jersey, New Mexico and Illinois, even though it's quote unquote New Jersey and Illinois, New Jersey and California have quote unquote independent maps I'm not including like Vermont, which only has one congressional district. You know, that doesn't, that doesn't matter. But California has a very, very, very partisanly gerrymandered map to begin with. That underrepresents Republicans voting intentions statewide. But because of Texas Republicans decision to gerrymander, they're trying. Texas is, I said this in the last episode, is gerrymandering five new seats to make them more. Republican Gavin Newsom is puffing his chest and insisting that he's going to do the same thing for Democrats in his state. It's his way of fighting Trump. I'm going to go over California in one minute, but I need a pullback, guys. I need to take a, I need to take a beat and I need to talk to you about the finger pointing of who is responsible for the situation we're in with gerrymandering. Because you hear this a lot on cable news and on the Internet and on talk radio, of course. Who did it first? Right. Who was responsible? Democrats point to North Carolina. Republicans point to other states. But if you want to really understand gerrymandering, you have to go back. We have to go back several decades, right? Picture it. 1991. A young Ryan Gy is four years old. Operation Desert Storm has commenced. The New York Giants win the Super Bowl. Arnold Schwarzenegger makes good on his promise that he'll be back in Terminator 2. And a little band named Nirvana comes out with an album called Nevermind that changes music. Also happening that year in 1991 is redistricting. Now there are 435 U.S. house seats. State legislatures and the governors, especially back then, control how they are redistricted. Guess how many of those 435seats Republicans have full control of redistricting? I'll give you a second. The correct answer is five. Yes, five of the 435 seats. That is it. The three in Utah and the two in New Hampshire. The only other state that has a Republican full control is South Dakota, which only has one seat and they can't gerrymander it. Democrats, on the other hand, control 138seats. They have full control in places like New Jersey, Florida, Texas, Mississippi, Maryland and Virginia. In those states, Republicans end up with just 53 seats, even though the President won every one of those states. States with the exception of two. Yet Republicans are still overwhelmingly underrepresented in the Congress. And that's not by accident. There were several very smart Democratic politicians and activists who carefully carved out and gerrymandered important states and Even in states where they didn't have full control, their activists were very successful using in proposing different maps and having lawsuits in trying to prevent Republicans from gaining any control whatsoever. From the New York Times on November 8, 1990 Election strengths hand on Democrat in 91 redistricting this is very long. This is not a very long quote, but this is a longer quote but this is very important. So listen quote the 1990 midterm election left Democrats well positioned to protect their majority in the House Representatives for the next decade, despite the shift in the nation's population being more Republican in areas like the south and the West. By winning the governorships in Texas and Florida and retaining legislative majorities there, Democrats will have complete control of drawing new lines for congressional districts for the two biggest booming states. Next year, Texas will probably gain three new seats and Florida four in the reapportionment of the nation's 435 congressional seats. The process of redistricting is exquisitely complicated and politically brutal. Analysts and both parties were pouring over the outcome Tuesday's voting to divine its full meaning for the ordeal. But Democrats said it's clear Republicans had fallen short in their goals and they had said a decade ago to have enough influence over redistricting so they could so they could break The Democratic Party's 35 year hold on the House of Representatives. Democrats are optimistic. California Republicans believe that the boundaries drawn in the 1981 election remember this is ten years before this article is written. The 1981 election cheated them out of six House seats and they say that they would like in 1991 a plan to give them some of those seats back as well as some of the seven new House seats that California received that year. The last three elections for governor had have produced Republican victories, but the State's congressional delegation is 11 more Democrats than Republicans. Many politicians predict that the entire issue of California redistricting will end up in the courts after a deadlock between the Republican governor and the Democratic Party legislature. Okay, I know it was a long quote, but think about that. Even in 1991, the New York Times, which was no friend of conservatives at any point in its history, but 1991 is in there and saying California in the 80s, this is when Reagan was president, was carved up and gerrymandered to support Democratic congressmen. And remember Reagan never had the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives has been at that point in 1990, from 1994 backwards, right before the new Gangreach election from 1934 to 1994, over 60 years, Democrats controlled the House for 56 of those 60 years. So let's look at Texas now in 1991, 1991, there's a Congressman named Martin Frost who represented a district in Dallas. He represented there from 1979 to 2005. He represents the seat that Beth Van Dyne currently holds. It's in like the Dallas. It's a mixture of Dallas and some of the suburbs. Frost was in danger of losing his seat, not to Republicans, but because minority Democrats were demanding more representation for black and Hispanic congressmen. Well, he worked. Frost worked with a state senator by the name of Eddie Bernice Johnson to create black majority district in Dallas that she ran for and she won. That is currently occupied by Jasmine Crockett. Johnson and Frost worked together to protect all 19 incumbent Democrats and create new areas that for three black and Hispanic majority districts that would vote Democrat in the future. This forced Republicans to hold just eight seats in the Texas congressional election. The Almanac of American Politics says called their gerrymandering, quote, the shrewdest gerrymander of the 1990s, ensuring that Democrats would win 53% of of all seats in super safe districts. Despite the fact that Republican congressional candidates won 53% of the popular vote in the state. They purposely carved up Texas six ways from Sunday. Now, I mentioned the New York Times article about California in the 80s. California in the 90s also came up to an immense, complicated redistricting. Why? There's two men responsible. They're called the Burton brothers, Philip and John Burton. And they were masterminds at redistricting California throughout the 80s and 90s. Philip was the mastermind of the 1981 map that the New York Times cited. He passed away in 1983. But his brother John, who was still with us at the age of 92, continue the family legacy in the 1991 redistricting. Now Democrats control the legislature, but Republicans had the governorship with Governor Pete Wilson. John worked with Assemblyman Speaker Willie Brown and used his brother's blueprint that he made in 1980, like using the Voting Rights act to confine Republicans and make more minority districts that would vote Democrat, especially to draw white Republicans in as few seats as possible. Now, this map was vetoed by the governor and the courts got involved and ultimately the former Republican governor. Okay, I'm going to say his name, but you know, I can never pronounce name correctly. George Duke machine drew the lines. And while it's obvious that the Republican got involved, but he kind of used an outlook to protect incumbents, right? So he didn't overturn the 1980 maps that were gerrymandered. He just kind of drew on the lines. He made it so that incumbents were not drawn out of districts, that districts weren't encompassing only Republican seats. And he gave it to, I mean, I give it to Democrats. They held the complaint. And in the end, despite gaining all these new congressional seats and having a Republican draw the map, Republicans gained a net of just one. One House seat in all of California, and they only defeated one incumbent Democrat in California. Democrats used the Voting Rights Act, Section 2 of the Voting Rights act to be particular and partisan gerrymandering and lawsuits to protect the map because they thought it would prevent the impossibility of Republicans winning back the house in the 90s. They thought they were going to continue their 56 out of 60 years of domination in the 90s, which is why the Republican Revolution of 1994 is truly a miracle. It was never, ever supposed to happen. Democrats drew the maps to prevent it from ever happening. And I'm going to give you a hot take. And this is something you do not hear on cable television, and especially if you are a person of a certain age, if you are a baby boomer or an older Gen Xer, and I'm not saying that to be disrespectful, but if you are, you've heard this legacy of Newt Gingrich and his Contract With America, and it is mostly nonsense. The reason that the Republicans won was not so much to do with New Gingrich or his Contract With America. It was to do with Hillary Clinton and her attempt to take over the nation's health care system with Hillary care. The number one issue in exit polls on election day in 1994 was not the economy. It was not taxes. It was not almost anything Newt was talking about. It was health care. And voters were fuming that Hillary Clinton wanted to take over the nation's health care. So when you hear Democrats say that Republicans started this and point to North Carolina and point to Texas currently. No, that's absolutely not true. Democrats have been doing this since before I was born. In the 1980s with the Burton brothers, in the 1990s with Martin Frost in Texas. And to a certain extent, I don't blame them. They had the power. Republicans had no power. Power, remember? I mean, the Republican Democrats whine and complain and progressives in the media run cover for them. But the truth is, the Democrats, long before Greg Abbott ever rolled over to his desk to create five Republican districts, Republicans had no power in large parts of this country going back to like the Reconstruction of the solid south. The solid the southern states like Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, West Virginia. Republicans didn't gain control of those state legislators until 2010 after I had gone through puberty. 2010 is a very long time ago. That's how long Democrats control 140, 150 years. They had direct control of the Deep south and going back until the 1950s is when the Democrats can trade gained control places like California and Connecticut and they gained control of like New Jersey and illinois in the 1950s, 70s and they have always had control of places like Maryland. You know, the animosity towards Republicans for the Civil War specifically. I mean that's what it was because they freed the slaves. They had a locked out of a huge portion of this country. And then you have like the Great Depression, Herbert Hoover and his mishandling Great Depression which locks them out of other parts of this country for decades. And it's only until Hillary Clinton shows up on the scene that America says no, I'm done with this Democratic Party, you know, not today, Satan. Like that literally was the catalyst that changed everything was Hillary Clinton not just getting Trump elected, but really giving Republicans a chance to control local legislatures. Redistricting and, and, and the House representatives for the first time in a generation. People imagine that there's this time when people didn't use political power to influence congressional redistricting and they are living in a fantasy. There was, there was power being used but it was only basically on one side because they had all the power. Well, they did it. And now I'm going to explain how that history lesson applies in context to what's going on in California today. That's coming up next.

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[Brian Graduski]

Okay, now that history lesson's over, let's talk about the map with Gavin Newsom is pushing California. The map essentially moves four Republican districts from being lean or likely Republican to being all but Safe Democrats. Representative Lamafa's district in Northern California goes from Trump + 25 to Harris + 12. Representative Ken Kevin Kylie's district goes from Trump + 4 to Harris + 10. Darrell Issher goes from Trump + 15 to Harris + 3. And Ken Calvert's district goes from Trump + 6 to Harris + 14. David Valdeo, he's a moderate Republican who's in the Central Valley. His district moves to the left, but it's still a swing district and he honestly could probably win it. David Valdeo performs very strongly as a local politician for Republicans. Young Kim, Jay Ulberton, Tom McClintock and Vincent Fong all have their districts become super safe Republican. Right? They go from they're like Trump +12 to Trump +30. They're absolutely going to win every time. They put every Republican in those four districts, essentially. Now, remember when I told you that in Texas back in the 1990s, state senator Eddie Bernice Johnson gerrymandered herself a majority black district so she could run for Congress. That was part of her deal that she got a seat. That same exact thing is happening in California today. Senate leader Mike McGuire drew himself a safe Democratic seat in Northern California as part of this deal. Right. The most interesting development about this map is they could have actually gone even further. Democrats could have actually taken out six or seven Republicans. They really have that kind of vote lead in California. And I'm not endorsing that map, but I'm saying it's interesting that they didn't. But why didn't they. Right. Think for a second. Why wouldn't they go even further when they could. When they could even gain from compared to what Texas is doing? Because vulnerable incumbents like Josh Harder, he currently represents the Trump district. Well, his new district is Harris plus 11. Adam Gray, that other Trump Republican. That other Democrat who. Sorry, Trump Democrat. The Democrat who represents a Trump seat, his seat moves six points to the left. A bunch of vulnerable Democrats were asked to shore up their districts to become more Democratic rather than knocking out another few Republicans. And I have thoughts about this. First, Democrats in California are aware that the ground is shifting below them. Remember, Hillary Clinton won California by 30 points. Kamala Harris, who is from the state and has won statewide elections there and represented in the United States Senate, she won California by 20 points. Now, I'm not saying that California will shift another 10 points. I don't know that. But there have been indicators that the Golden State is trending towards Republicans even after the 2024 election, even after that 10 point shift. Over the two elections from November 2024 to March 2025, Republicans have gained 138,000 new members of their party in the voter rolls. Democrats have gained 12,000. Independents gained the most with 155,000, but 138,000 to 12,000, 10 times as many new Republicans as new Democrats in California. Politics is not a pond. It is not stagnant, it is a river. It is changing every day. Someone is born, someone turns 18, someone becomes a citizen, someone moves out of the country, someone dies. Vibes change, parties change. Different candidates are elected to be the face of the party. So while they understand the state is changing, I don't think that the Democrats realize by how much because their map is more aggressive and sloppy than the Texas map. The Texas congressional map, you can say a lot of it, but really none of the states, even in when you compare to the governor's election, which is worse than or which is on par with Trump's election, but different kinds of coalitions, less support among Hispanics, less support among South Texans, none of the seats are swanky as districts. Maybe one, maybe one in South Texas would be a swing district. In California, nine of the seats are swing districts when you compare them to how other Republicans performed only in the last two years. Sean Trent of Real Clear Politics pointed this out and said that the map gets the job done for Democrats in 2026. But there's a big question. As of 2028 and beyond, let's say California ships half as much as it did between 2020 and 2024. So it moves five points points. Well, instead of four safe Republican seats, you have six. And instead of two swing districts, you have eight. Let's say it shifts another a whole 10 points. Let's say this is continuation. Let's say Republicans are going to win California by 10 or 11 points in 2028, which I know, I'm not saying it's going to happen, but let's say it does because it just did. If that 10 point shift happens, well, you have 10 safe Republican seats and seven more swing seats. The ground is changing very, very quickly. Quickly. This map is tactical for what it understands in protecting incumbents. And there needs to be needs to be protections because their ground is shifting. But I don't think they understand how severe it is. And that means that this map could become a dummy mander, not a gerrymander. If the state ships half the rate as it did over the last eight years, a trend that we're not only seeing throughout the country, we're seeing all over the Anglosphere, well, then Democrats doomed a lot of their own incumbents, including incumbents who just gave up tons of Democratic voters to protect other incumbents. It might not work for anybody. Now, how realistic is it that this map will become law? The Democrats have the votes to get it through the legislator. They have a super majority in both the state Senate and the state Assembly. Even though they lost seats in the last election, they still have 75% of the vote after they get it through the legislature. Newsom will have three months to put this on the ballot in November. It will have to spend millions to pass it. Remember, California currently has an independent Commissioner thanks to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Schwarzenegger and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy are preparing to spend about $150 million to defeat this ballot initiative, which is significantly more than Republicans usually spend In California in 2022, the Republican GOP candidate who received 41% of the vote spent $2.6 million on his election. And polls show that independent redistricting is very popular. A poll by the University of California at Berkeley found that voters opp Newsom's plan by a margin of 64 to 36. Incidentally, Newsom just released a poll as of the recording this podcast saying that his internal show that this is actually very popular. Don't know if I believe that the devil is really in the details because it depends on how the constitutional amendment is written. I'm sure they're going to try to write it to be as vague and confusing as possible. But if Republicans throw their weight behind this and registration register new voters and put action behind this, it could ultimately backfire on Democrats and their efforts to redistrict. It's also a special election. However, Californians aren't supposed to be voting this November, so only higher propensity voters will matter. They'll matter a lot more. And that could tip the scales for Newsom and he can get this gerrymander done. Who knows? In the end, I don't think Newsom cares. So much about this map for 2026 because it's not about 2026, it's about 2028. It's about whether or not he will or won't be the Democratic nominee when American when America was having their racial reckoning in 2020. Newsom supported reparations for slaves in his state like the ancestors of slaves in California. Not that there were any, but if there were ever, maybe there's a handful. They all get money. He supported that effort when being loyal to Biden mattered. Despite his cognitive decline, despite everything, he was Biden's biggest champion. Totally ignored all the situation going on when being bipartisan was a thing to do. Right after the election, well, he had Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon on his podcast and told him how his kids listen to them. Now the plan is to be the biggest resist lib and Newsom is going to be the biggest resist lib in the entire country. Why? Because he's the candidate for anybody. He sheds his skin like the snake he is and he'll do anything to be the nominee in 2028. We'll be back with Ask Me Anything next.

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[Brian Graduski]

Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment of this podcast. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, please email me ryanumbers game podcast.com that's ryanumbersgame podcast.com I look forward to these emails and some of them are so Interesting. This one from Brian Fox on our last episode. I answered it, but I didn't feel like I answered it to its fullest. So I actually relooked at it. He asked what would our legislature Senate look like if the 17th Amendment, which allows for the direct election of senators, if that never had been ratified, what would we, how would, how would the map look if we still had the legislatures picking out the Senate? And I said I didn't feel like the answer I gave last time was actually sufficient. So I went full autist. Not that I am, I don't mean to disrespectfully any autistic listeners, but I went full autist. And I spent so much time looking at elections of US Senators compared to how the legislature was made up at the time to try to get the best possible answer I possibly could for what it would look like currently. And based on my calculation, if the state legislatures were picking the senators at the time of their election, there will be 62 Republican senators and 38 Democrats. Obviously much different than the map we currently have. The biggest change would be that the Midwest would basically all have Republican senators, except for Illinois. New Hampshire would have two Republican senators. Georgia and Arizona would have two Republican senators. Maine would have two Democrats. So no Susan Collins unfortunately, the only state that I wasn't sure about, there's two states, Alaska and Minnesota. Alaska is a very strange state when it comes to a local government. There you have fusion governments where basically like a bunch of Republicans don't like the other Republicans, so they call themselves the true Republicans. And then the other Republicans work with the Democrats. So I counted as they would elect one Republican and one independent. And Minnesota, their margins are so tight depending on the year. And there's a few independents in the legislature, so I put it as one Republican and one Democrat, just, you know, for argument's sake and my best guess. And so that's why I got with 62 Republicans and 38 Democrats. It would be a different country. But thank you, Brian Fox, for that answer. I actually really enjoyed doing that research, like, way too much. Anyway, next question comes from Bill Tobias. He has a question on Colorado's declining support for Republicans. He asked if the declining number of workers in the state if there was a declining number of workers in the state in the gas, oil and mining industry, because they would likely vote for Republicans. The short answer is yes, the number of people who directly work in the field of oil, mining and gas has declined pretty substantially. They went from 33,000 thousand jobs in 2019 to 20,000 jobs in 2022. They went up a little bit in 2023, but they're nowhere near the 2019 numbers. But even though they say that they've had this slight increase in jobs, they make up less than 1% of the state's workforce. And remember, 3 million people voted in Colorado in the last presidential election. It's just that Colorado has just become a destination for progressives who can't deal with California's high taxes and anymore. And that's just what it is. And also a lot of Hispanic migration. So those two things have kind of made the state into this ever growing blue, you know, blue paradise, I guess in the middle of our country in the mountains. And you know, there's also art festivals and other things and the environment and hiking and you know, I don't know, there's a lot of things that I think attract certain people that lifestyle who lean progressive. I think same thing as like the North Pacific Northwest. A lot of people are attracted to that kind of lifestyle who are progressive. So that's why Colorado's in situation they're in and that's why they're one of the few states who despite everything great that happened in 2024 for Republicans is not looking like they are gaining much support in the future. Well, that's our show today. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts wherever you get your podcast and I will see you guys on Monday.

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