← The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind How Mail-In Ballots and Redistricting Are Shaping the 2025 Elections
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C mint mobile.com welcome back to A Numbers Game with Brian Garduski. Well, you've been asking for it, you've been demanding it and it's finally here, my YouTube channel where you're going to be not only hearing but seeing every single episode is up and running. You can, you know, not only just listen to my nasally voice, you could see this face nerding out, adding a touch of sarcasm chasm to politics. And now that you know, I, my, my relatives always said of the, the face for radio and the voice for silent pictures. But I really am so excited that so many people asked for this and, and I'm going to try to make the YouTube page informative, put on graphs. I'm working through it. I'm, I'm starting this whole entire thing. We're also going to upload old videos, old interviews so you can actually see me and my guests having conversations. I think that's super important because you guys got to see little clips on social media but not the whole entire thing. So it's very exciting. Go to a numbers game podcast or ryan Graduski on YouTube, click the subscribe button, see all the new content, some of the old content and it's very exciting. It's super exciting. I'm very excited that I did this and I'm glad that you guys pushed me to do it because I probably wouldn't have done it if I didn't get so many people requesting it. So it's on YouTube. Check it out before I go into the episode about the elections because that's what, honestly, what, that's what everyone wants to talk about right now is just the elections. I, I'll go back into the normal policy stuff and some current news and the data behind it. That's interesting. And then maybe towards the end of the year we'll do some fun stuff. But I to do the elections right now because there's only two more before the, before it's over and before I go into That I wanted to mention that on Tuesday was the one year anniversary of me being canceled on CNN for selling Medi Hassan, that I hope his beeper doesn't go off now. It's something I don't think about, like, I don't think ever about, like this episode. I only even. It's only ever brought up to me when I'm. Someone's introducing me who doesn't know me, who comments on it as if it's like, as if I haven't heard it 20 million times in the last year. But anyway, it came and went and I didn't think anything of it. Well, Mehdi posts this long Twitter thing which he does not let responses on because he didn't want to get ratioed, but this long thing about how he had overcome racism and how CNN has not invited him back on and how he's just one giant victim and, you know, begging and pleading basically for CNN to have him on, which the fact that you would grovel to get on the lowest rated cable news network that has purposely not had you on after you've been fired from MSNBC and stormed off the set of CNN when I was on it. What kind of man are you like, I mean, literally what kind of man are you to have to cast yourself as the eternal victim? This is the only way you can have kind of a car. This is the only way you can have any kind of, you know, place in, in society, in the, in the commentary space. You've got nothing else of interest to bring to the table. Which he does in most of the time because I've seen a few of his interviews. But the reason CNN has not really had him on, the reason MSNBC fired him, is he's an immensely unlikable person and he's insufferable. And I will say that hosts of cnn, after the whole entire debacle happened, reached out to me and said, oh, thank God. You said to Mehdi, he's the worst person on television. So that's the reason you're not getting on. It's not because you're a victim. It's not because everyone hates you. It's not because everyone hates you because you're, you know, you're Muslim or because you're a victim or because you're brown or whatever the hell excuse you have now. They don't like you because you're not likable. And anyway, the whole day came and went. Abby Phillips was talking about it too. These people cannot get a name out of their mouth. The she was on The Breakfast Club talking about and showing how she has, you know, guardrails on debate. Meanwhile, liberals have been on her show plenty of times saying far worse things than my joke. And she's not bad at an eye because that's, that's Abby. Anyway, that, that whole debacle blended me this podcast and got me here and I'm happy. I'm happier being with you guys than I was being on cnn. So let's go into the election and part two of this conversation. I'm going to start talking about specifically vote and intensely look at the early vote and I have on the great Cliff Maloney from Citizens alliance to talk about that. So but first let me break down the numbers for you so you kind of understand where we stand in the early vote in the New Jersey governor's race. Looks like Republicans must be waiting for election day to show up. That is the hope of Jack Ciarelli because they are not showing up in, in the early vote. I mean, Democrats are currently outvoting Republicans not only by mail, which is very expected, but in the in person voting. This is not where Jack Chitterle wants to be. Democrats have 5,000 more early votes than Republicans. That's in person when you count the male and the in person Democrats have close to 220,000 more votes banked than Republicans. Now let's go back to 2021 into 2024. In 2021, Democrats on election day had 276,000 raw votes, raw vote advantage. That was their lead from, from, from the day. And you could see that Jack Ciarelli only lost by 80,000 votes. So he got close to 200,000 votes on election day. He just needed that 80,000 more. Now in the last four years, Republicans have been registering many, many more Democrats have actually been losing voters in New Jersey. But their participation rate among these new Republicans is not showing up in the early vote. That, that's a cause for a concern. I mean, they really have to sit there and wake up either to start changing the trend lines or, you know, they're all going to set their alarm on Tuesday and be like, hey, I'm here. I'm ready to vote. I'm going to cast a million ballots and I'm going to sit there and overwhelm the massive Democratic lead. This point in 2024, Republicans actually had 9,000 more in person early votes than Democrats. And Democrats now, as I said, have close to 5,000 more early votes in person early votes than Republicans. For Chelli to win this at this point, he needs either a, a Massive get out the vote Election Day effort. I mean, I'm talking quarter of a million three hundred thousand massive election day turnout in his favor to Independence to break by huge margins or a sizable chunk of the Democratic vote to break in his direction. Now, remember, it's got the support of a lot of Hasidic and Orthodox Jews. They are registered Democrats by and large. So some of this early Democrat vote will be voting for Republican 2. There are also a lot of Asian and Hispanic Democrats that voted for Trump in Northern Jersey that traditionally vote for Democrats. So if they're sticking with Trump, these Latino Trump Democrats, like in Passaic county, if they stick with Chitterelli and they show up, that will be good for Jack. But those are really the only ways at this point. You know, this election is going to have a lot more votes than in 2021, but not nearly as many in 2024. Jack is a very slim way of winning at this point, and it's getting less and less and less by the day because Democrats are building this firewall of early voting. It's key that Republicans start realizing how important the early vote is. Now let's look at New York City where the Republican is really not that important. I mean, he's important, but it's not. He's not going to win. But the election is very, very interesting right now in New York. If I had to guess and looking at statistics that are coming out, New York's going to have about twice as many, if not more than twice as many votes in this mayoral election as the last one. I'm hearing from people doing statistics on this and doing modeling that it could be as many as 2.5 people show up to vote in this mayoral election. There were, for context, 1.1 million in the previous mayoral election and 2.8 million in the previous presidential election. So you're having close to presidential turnout. What does this mean, especially for. For polling when it comes to Cuomo versus Mandani? Pollsters create universes of who they expect to show up. Right? They're expecting it's going to be certain, you know, demographic of this group and that group and. And a certain amount of blacks and whites and lat and old people and young people and independents and Republicans. So they're building these models out right now. And what happens when the total vote turnout is far higher than what's expected is that these models can be wrong and sometimes be wrong by quite a bit. There is some good news for Cuomo in this raw data that we're seeing coming out of the five boroughs, the electorate is a lot older, significantly older than it was in the Democratic primary. When Mandani won in the primary, voters under 40 were the largest voting block and they vote broke heavily from Andani. But so far in this partial port, a part of the early vote, seniors are casting a majority of ballots. I'll repeat that. Seniors are casting a majority of ballots. More New Yorkers between the ages of 75 to 79 have cast ballots than voters between under the age of 25. So in that five, four year age, black 75 to 79, they have cast more ballots so far than the super young voters, 18 to 24 year olds. That's earth shattering that it was not expected because that is not what is what's happening in the Democratic primary. Furthermore, the electorate is a lot more Democratic than It was in 2024. Zachary Denini, who's been on this podcast and he's very, very smart guy, he estimates that this election will be about 6 points more Democrat than in the presidential election. Right? Democrats will make up a bigger portion of the pie in the mayoral race because it seems like even lower propensity who don't typically vote in mayoral elections are showing up. That looks like it's good news for Cuomo. I mean, it doesn't necessarily mean so, but given that they're older as well, that looks like it's good for Cuomo. The other good news that Cuomo has is that there's a lot of people who are by demographic in his base, right? Older voters, black voters, voters in southern Brooklyn which is heavily Jewish, voters in western Queens, which is heavily black. That is his key demographics. And they have been showing up and as opposed to like, what do they call it, like the socialist belt in New York City, the part of Brooklyn and Queens that stretches across from, from Bay Ridge near Staten island all the way to the tip of the Bronx. Everything that basically touches water near Manhattan, that socialist belt, the commie corridor, that's what they call the commie corridor. Their numbers have been declining day in and day out. So basically a lot of voters who were so excited about for Mandani, they got out and they voted the first day. There's more to be cast in those areas. They could be waiting for election day, they could be waiting for the weekend, who knows. But so far as the days have gone on where Cuomo needs the votes to come out of have been showing up. Now, it's not all bad news from Andani because his the best counties that he's had. The counties where pollsters say he's going to do the best. They're showing up in big numbers. Brooklyn and Manhattan. Brooklyn and Manhattan have had good, strong turnout so far better than any other borough. But they're also more popular than any other borough. So it's not super surprising. Cuomo is going to need more of that Upper east side establishment black voter, Jewish voters that there and come in strong. And also he's going to need more Republicans to sit there and break for him. There was a Quinnipiac poll released on Wednesday that Falman Donnie's lead is slipping, but he still has a sizable 10 point lead. It's 43 to 33 according to this poll, with Republican courtesy, while only getting 14 points. Now, I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna labor the point of how I feel about Curtis and how he's handled this election. All the things he could have done for the Republican Party by playing ball with Cuomo and trying to get support and money for Republican candidates running for city council and for state local offices in the state. But what it shows is, is that Curtis is not even winning. A plurality of Republicans, a plurality of Rep. Are voting for Cuomo according to the Quinn P ack Poll, which is just so sad. I mean, Curtis really is going to ruin his legacy in this entire thing. I think the most interesting fact aside from that though is according to this poll, when asked about religions, Cuomo is winning Catholics, Jews and Protestants, while Mandani is winning Muslims and people with no religion, which really shows the state of the Democratic Socialist Party. It's really people with no religion that are voting most heavily for, for Mandani. And that is the soulless future of that party. Now, I want to talk briefly about Virginia, because Virginia, they do not have elections. They don't, they don't register people by political party. I've said this over and over and over again. So there's no registered Republican, Russian Democrat. They're only looking at how past performances in counties have affected or will show up. Right. So if they're saying, oh, this is super Trump or super Harris county, then they're Shrub at this percentage and we can guess how they're going to do so. And so it's kind of, it's kind of very voodoo science. I mean, political science is voodoo science, but this is really voodoo science. What it's showing is that Trump counties, counties that Trump won, are at the very high end of turnout and the very low end. And it's consistent Democratic counties that really are in the middle for win some Sears who is going to likely lose. I'm just telling everybody now I know that their hopes are high but, but it is what it is and I'm going to tell you guys the truth. For her to lose by a small enough margin that they protect state legislative seats and Jason Morz wins the attorney general race, who knows a lieutenant governor race, polling there is kind of all over the place. But for, for Jason Mears, who's the most likely Republican to win in that race, for him to do that, she needs to keep the, the, the gap on election on, on the loss probably within seven points. Right. If it gets to nine points, that amount of ticket splitting is gonna be very, very difficult to carry me or is down valid. That's my opinion. Those are the. But, but the early vote right now is really not, it's, I don't want to say it's science. I don't say it's like the thing to look at. This is going to decide the entire future and there's nothing that could change that trajectory because it's obviously not true. We've seen it in past elections. But it's telling a narrative and it's telling a story and the story is very simple. Republicans need to get more excited about these off year elections, about these local elections. Your local politics, your state politics, they matter a lot more to your life on a day to day basis than whatever President Trump does in the White House. With me next is my buddy Cliff. He's going to go into how the early voters shaking up both in New Jersey and in Pennsylvania where they have important races for judges that will absolutely affect the state of the entire country. So be right back with that.
- [18:39]
A
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- [19:40]
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- [20:07]
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- [20:12]
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- [21:51]
C
Is Cliff Maloney from Citizens Alliance. Cliff, thank you for being here.
- [21:55]
B
Appreciate you having me.
- [21:56]
C
So, Cliff, you've been working in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. What are some things you've seen on the ground?
- [22:01]
B
Yeah, I mean, on the ground right now. Let's start with Jersey. I mean, there's tons of energy. Jack Cittarelli is really, you know, a great candidate to go up against Cheryl. She really kind of represents the Kamala Harris of New Jersey. The more voters hear from her, the more they see her, the more they understand what she stands for. They're, they're losing or hemorrhaging votes. But I want to be clear, Ryan. You know, Jersey is not a state that is like, you know, I'm optimistic, but we're not supposed to be able to win Jersey. Jack lost by three points, but that was after the Democrats had taken the White House. Right now we have the opposite. We've got Trump in the White House. We have the House and Senate. You know, the pushback should go in the opposite direction. So the fact that it's neck and neck right now with polling, you know, really tells me that there's an opportunity. But the voters on the ground are engaged, right? They're encouraged. I mean, when we're talking and what we're doing is going to Republicans and we are trying to get every single Republican that has a mail in ballot to send it back. And when we're doing that, I mean, you know, we're talking to patriots, but they're not always so consistent with their voting. But they like Jack, I mean, they're following the race. This is not considered an off year race by New Jersey standards. And I'm optimistic that it. He's got a shot. It is a competitive race in New Jersey.
- [23:12]
C
Now, how many mail in ballot requests, People who've asked for a mail in ballot and received it have not returned it so far. Who are Republicans?
- [23:19]
B
Yeah. So this data just hit a couple hours ago, but out of the roughly 184,000 Republicans who requested a mail in ballot, there are still 76,000 that have a ballot sitting on their table. Let me say that again for your audience because I think this is very important. There are 76,000 registered Republicans in the state of New Jersey who went through the process of requesting a ballot, have the ballot sitting on their table and they haven't turned it in. And remember, Jack only lost by roughly 80,000 votes in 2021. So my whole objective, Ryan, is we're going out there. We've knocked roughly 440,000 doors. We're trying to knock 500,000 by Tuesday. But our whole objective is to get those 76,000 Republicans to, to just get that ballot back. Right. Send it back in, get that as low as we can. Because this race, to me, that's what it's going to come down to, getting that number down, having early vote, actually compete, and then we have to dominate election day.
- [24:17]
C
Well, I mean, the thing is that's difference between now and 2020 New Jersey, is that in 2024, Republicans at this point were winning the early in person voting. And right now they're losing it. It. So it gives me cause for concern that Democrats 1, are so excited to go vote. You know, across the country we're seeing this, but also that Republicans seem to think that Election Day is, you know, another year away or something because they're not showing up in strong numbers. Are you seeing that over in Pennsylvania, where you're also very active in both the presidential election and this off year election?
- [24:52]
B
Yeah. One last thing about Jersey. So Jack won election day by 200,000. What you just said is actually a very good point, which is if he's not going to compete as well as he did in early vote, he's going to have to win by roughly 250,000 or maybe even 300,000, depending on how the next couple days go. So he's going to need a huge turnout on election day. As for Pennsylvania, let me read you two numbers that, to me, really show why I'm pretty confident about the Superior Court and the Commonwealth Court races. And we can talk retention if you want to in 2025. Right now, if you look at the returns, Democrats are up 270,000 in terms of 270,000 more Democrats have returned a ballot than Republicans. In 2023, when we got to election day, that was 430,000. So they're going to trend higher than that 270 number. But to me, if you can keep that without eclipsing where it was last, you know, two years ago, the last off year, they lost some of those judicial races by about 70,000 votes. So to me, the Democrats are lagging there. But I want to be honest, Ryan, everyone's talking about these retention races. In the history of Pennsylvania, only one judge has not been retained. And it was a huge scandal. This, this, and this. So obviously, every door we knock on, we're talking about voting no. But the real battles are going to be the down ballot battles of not just, you know, folks at the Superior Commonwealth Court, but the countywide races, the school board races, the local dog catcher races. Right. That's what we're trying to do for permanent infrastructure this year so that we can win those races, but then set us up for success in 2026.
- [26:30]
C
What are some of the critical. And I'll go back to New Jersey in a second. What are some of the critical counties that Republicans really should compete in? Like competing in Pennsylvania?
- [26:41]
B
Yeah. So the, the simplest answer I have there is if you're looking forward and you're looking at what are the Democrats doing now and preparing for in 2026, the three most competitive, most competitive congressional districts are District 7, 8 and 10. That's McKenzie Bresnahan and Scott Perry. Now, we flipped two of those to Republican in 2024. So to me, there's tons of really competitive school district races which are great and we're, you know, we're targeting a bunch of those. But if you said to me for the implications of the country and moving forward, it's what we're doing on the ground in District 7, 8 and 10, and that's Central PA, that's Lehigh. Obviously, Bucks County's always a focus as a bellwether to kind of see where we're going. But the Democrats this year are focused heavily on the congressional districts, even though there's nobody on the ballot. And why is that? Because if you can get a thousand low propensity Dems or for us Republicans to vote this year, they're absolutely going to vote next year. You're developing habits. It and so to me, it's getting that permanent infrastructure in those key counties and key districts to set us up for next year.
- [27:49]
C
So for those who don't have the congressional map in their head like I do, 7 and 8 are in the northeastern part of Pennsylvania. And number 10, which is represented currently and for a while by Scott Perry, is around Harrisburg. It's around the capital of the state, which has been in treading blue for quite some time. Although Trump did win it by a sizable portion. Scott Perry doesn't perform as well as Trump in his district. But that' neither here nor there. Why is it, and I have tried almost putting a nail in my head screaming at people, nailing my head against the wall, screaming, people saying to them, you have to vote early because if you vote early, your resources are not spent on you and they're spent where they need to go on election day to people who are less likely to show up. Can you emphasize why it's so important for Republicans to start voting early and not to have this sanctimonious opinion of voting only on election day?
- [28:43]
B
Well, and look, here's, here's the biggest objection we get. They don't want to vote early because they don't trust the post office. Here's the deal. In Pennsylvania, it's simple. You can go to your county office and you can request an on demand mail in ballot, an emergency mail in ballot, and all that is, is you're at your polling location, you fill out the mail in ballot, you give it to the clerk. Exactly what you would do on election day. And when it comes to resources, Ryan, you get this. So many people don't understand why the Dems have this advantage. 2020 is a great example. Okay, Joe Biden racked up 2 million mail in votes to Donald Trump's, let's call it 600,000. That means that Biden has 1.4 people, 1.4 million more folks that he doesn't have to spend a dime on, that he doesn't have to send a mail or two, that he doesn't have to go to their door. They don't have to run digital ads targeting that person. And so we're not here to say, hey, listen, we love that there's 50 days of voting in Pennsylvania, but you have two options. One, you say, hey, we don't like it, so we're just not going to compete. We're going to guarantee a loss. Or two, we're going to fight fire with fire. We're going to compete against the Democrats using their own tactics to try to win. So to all the Republicans out there, go out and figure out a way whether it's voting by mail. If you want to get down for the emergency ballot in Jersey, you can do early voting, but you got to create a plan because the resources we have to spend two to three times as much money, money to turn out our voters on election day because the universe is so large compared to the Democrats. It's a great, great analysis point and I do think a lot of the Republicans are learning it, but we still have a lot more work to do.
- [30:18]
C
Yeah, and there's just, there is a very old mentality of I have to only vote on election day and kind of making it a holiday, even though it's not holiday. It's strange that the Democrats which have been trending older, are more fixed. Republicans are more fixed in their ways than Democrats are towards the election day and vote. What do you make of, and I don't know if you know the answer to this, but I'm going to ask you anyway. There were a lot of first time voters who voted for Donald Trump. A lot of first time Republican voters too. A lot of like Hispanics and Asians specifically and young men, are they showing up or are they, are they, did they go back to being Democrats or are they sleeping this election? I think that that's a key decision, especially for Jack Cittarelli who wear Passaic county, which is a lot of Hispanics. In it, voted for Trump for the first time, I think, since 88. I might be wrong on that one, but I think it's 88 Republicans won Passaic County. Can Jack count on those voters, or are they back to Democrats, or are they not voting, in your opinion? Maybe not specifically Passaic county, but state as a whole?
- [31:19]
B
No, I think it's a great question. I think it's going to be one of the things that determines the elections, you know, across the country, both this year and next year. I don't think they're going to switch back to Democrat. I think it's, did they just show up for Trump and then they're going to stay home, or do they show up for Trump and now they're, you know, going to become consistent Republican voters? The thing that I'm most interested in with a lot of those voters is they did vote on Election Day. Yeah. Some of them voted by mail or voted early. But that's where Election Day is going to do the talking. Right. If Jack Chitterboy let me say this, and I'm just going to be very blunt and honest, Ryan, you're always somebody to kind of not, you know, have sensationalism. Right. We talk about the true rational state of things. If Jackson Rowan wins election day by 150,000 votes, he is not governor. Right. And so there's going to be a large portion of those people that are going to depend on, does he win it by 200, does he win it by 250 and he's governor? That, I think, is the question.
- [32:11]
C
So you're saying if the vote is not large enough on Election Day.
- [32:14]
B
Correct. So if he doesn't win by a margin of 2 to, you know, he won by 200,000 roughly in 2021. And so if we're seeing kind of these numbers as we are now, which are not fantastic, we're not winning early vote by five points. Right. We're losing early vote. We're down, you know, a couple thousand votes, which is. It's saying something when you compare to four years ago. So when you ask me about these Trump voters that came out for the first time, it's TBD until we get to Election Day, because a lot of them were Election Day voters. I think Jack's done a great job to try to get them to come out. I don't know how much they're going to be motivated, because do they see Cheryl as that much of a motivation to come out? I hope they do. I think a lot of the messaging everybody's doing is to try to drive that. But what we're hearing at the door from a lot of Hispanics and black voters that voted for Trump is they're in for Jack, right? They're returning their ballots. Election Day is going to be what determines. Does he win it by 200,000? Does he win it by 250? I think we have to be in that range to pull it off.
- [33:13]
C
Off. So I have some good gossip for you that I haven't shared on the podcast yet. One of my Democratic consultant friends told me that, Mickey, Cheryl is telling people that she's planning to run for President 2028, right after she wins the New Jersey governorship that she has got. She's going to be the female candidate to run, and she is planning and plotting a presidential run. You know, and she says she believes she has this run in the bag. And this New Jersey is just this quick stepping stone she's going to make and turn right around. And she has this charisma and a unique AB and everyone's gonna be shocked on election day. I think it's hysterical because there's probably no state that the rest of the. I'll tell you this little joke. I had a good friend back in 2014 when it was looking like Christie and Cuomo were gonna run, one of my friends, a smart Democrat, said to me, if it's Christie versus Cuomo, 48 states will leave the union. And that is basically if it's New York versus New Jersey. Because there is not a demographic that most of the country is like, oh, God, Jersey and New York, that they cannot stand more. So. But she does believe that she is going to run for president in the blink of an eye. And it's crazy, but this is what she's plotting. This is why I think some of her supporters are working so hard for her. So they think that this is a quick turnaround for the White House.
- [34:29]
B
Talk about being tone deaf. I mean, really, any Democrat that is even mildly talented should win New Jersey by five points at a minimum. At a minimum. And here she is in this dead heat race. But she, like I said, I mean, she. This isn't a talking point. This isn't rhetoric. She reminds me of Kamala Harris. The more that voters interact with her, the more votes she loses, the more that she's out there. People just don't think she's authentic. And now that you're telling me this inside scoop, this gossip, she's also out of touch with reality, right? What state does she think she can win in a primary. You know, she can't even like open her mouth without having a gaff.
- [35:08]
C
I guess she thinks that black voters in the deep south are really wanting Mikey Cheryl to be, to be. I don't know. It's just, it's good gossip and it's interesting. And I think that that's, that's why they're working so hard for her right now. Especially a whip of the votes is not because they think of Trenton. They think of, they're thinking of the Pennsylvania Avenue. Where can people go to help your organization or boom, go to get involved in any of this stuff, especially in these critical swing states that you're part of.
- [35:36]
B
Yeah. So there's two very, very distinct asks that I have of everybody. Number one, if you want to come to PA or New Jersey, come out, knock doors. We'll get you set up over the next couple days as we lead up to Tuesday. And two, if you can't come out, sponsor a ballot chaser. Right. I told you there's 76,000 of those folks in New Jersey. We've got the same problem in Pennsylvania. $175 sponsors a full day of ballot chasing. You want to give the PA it's pachase.com you want to give the New Jersey, it's njchase.com really appreciate it Ryan, but this is the final stretch and we're not going to let up until we've knocked 500,000 doors in both Pennsylvania and 500,000 doors in New Jersey.
- [36:16]
C
Well, Cliff, thank you for being here. I appreciate it.
- [36:18]
B
Thanks so much.
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Now it's time for Ask Me Anything guys. I love the Ask Me Anything segment. Email me your questions. Ryanumbers game podcast.com that's Ryan plural numbers Game Podcast I I answer every question either privately or publicly. So I'm so excited to get these. First is Mike from Nevada. He said that he has only been in the political world maybe since 2015 and paying attention, especially locally in Nevada. I think I'm pronouncing Nevada correctly. They're very they're Nevada and Oregon are very sticklers for how you pronounce their state's name. So if I'm mispronouncing it, I'm saying it like a new Yorker, I apologize, he says. I know we only have six electoral college votes but but they have a Democrats have a super majority in the state. I think Nevada has one of those 18 to 22, I guess year cycles during COVID where Governor Sisak really just let anything fly including a massive gerrymander. And now Governor Lombardo, who is a Republican, FYI has such a split government that nothing is getting done. Okay, that's absolutely true. It is completely flying under the radar. How Democrats in Nevada had like a surgical hand when it was coming to redistrict the state and how the that's still affecting the state. Even though they have a Republican governor and even though the state voted for Donald Trump In 2021, Nevada Democrats were very, very effective despite the state moving six points from 2020 to 2024. The in the presidential election state, the state legislature and the congressional delegation barely move. The congressional delegation didn't move at all but one district did vote for Trump. But even at the state level, even at the state assembly level, they barely move. So Trump Trump won the state 51 to 51.5 to 47.5. Trump won only 16 out of 42 assembly seats in the state despite a statewide win of three points. That means he only he only carried 38 of all the assembly seats. Republicans down ballot running for State assembly received 100,000 more votes raw raw votes statewide than Democrats did, but only managed to capture one single state assembly seat. And there's only one other state assembly seat that Democrats won but Trump won. So like there was one one valid splitting state a district, every other district, either Harris carried it or Trump carried it. I will say there is some chance for Nevada Republicans going into next year into 2026. Now the way it works is that every two years the entire state assembly is up, but it's they split the vote every four years in the state state senate. So it's not every district's not up. Every year in the state Senate where Democrats hold a super majority or closest majority, there are two districts that one that Trump won and one that he barely lost that are going to be really competitive. That's District 8 in western Las Vegas and District 12 in southern Las Vegas. Trump won District 8 and he lost District 12 by half a point. That is where Republicans are going to put their effort efforts in to sit there and break make the Democrats majority and get very close to winning an outright majority in the state Senate. If I was a Republican consultant state, I would put my efforts specifically not only in Governor Lombardo's reelection and the congressional races. But those two state Senate districts are super important to try to break Democrats control and lock on the state. I did some numbers, some research. There are 10 districts in the state assembly that Trump lost by five points or less. Right. Right. Where Kamala beat Trump by less than five points. Ten there's only 42 assembly seats. So and Democrats control 27 of them. So almost one in three assembly seats is close to swing swing seat, you know proportions because they managed to draw just enough Democrats to keep it out of reach for Republicans. I mean as a political consultant I kudos how good they were at doing that. But for Republicans it's going to be very difficult to climb back. It's not impossible, especially the state Senate level. Okay, next question comes from Bill. He says what are your thoughts on Paxton vs Corin in Texas? Is Paxton offer a model for ambitious RS in Oklahoma? Langford isn't up until 2028. Maybe most people will forget his terrible immigration bill by then, but I won't. I won't either. Bill, more generally, what needs to happen to get challengers to weak red state senators, I guess US Senators I'm going to guess is what he means. If you were to expand the idea of beyond ask me anything seg. I'd be curious to know how to pull this off. The Senate conservative fund is out there. What do you think of them? They were around pre trauma. They don't like amnesty. But do you think they're going to they're in tune with the current gop. Oh, that's a hello to question. Okay, so first of all, Paxton versus Corn and Cornyn is I got a lot more money than Paxton does and Paxton has a branding issue. I did a lot of work in Texas and I knew people who personally knew Paxton and they their comment on Paxton is was always he's a crook, but he's our crook. That's the way conservatives feel about Paxton, that he's not trustworthy. I mean he's allegedly had affairs on his wife. Allegedly was not the he was not Jimmy Stewart. And Mr. Smith goes to Washington. I'll just say that. And Mr. Smith goes to Austin. He and that kind of branding issue gives people anxiety. But the biggest piece of anxiety they give him is would he make the U.S. senate race in Texas competitive if Democrats had a good year and the generic ballot and if they put out a good candidate because Democrats don't have a pathway to a majority in the Senate? I mean they kind of do, but it's very, very, very difficult and the thing that Cornyn has that Lankford doesn't is Cornyn has like decades of betrayal towards conservatives. Right. Cornyn was the person to vote for Democratic judges. He was horrendous on immigration, which is a huge issue in Texas. And he, he always was willing to work with the Democrats for an amnesty bill. He's also kind of up there in age, which I think things are affecting. And Wesley Hunt being in the race absolutely will split the anti Cornin vote. I think that Corning can be defeated if it's a one on one race. I don't know if Wesley Hunt's going to have the ability to do it now. They do have runoffs in the state and I don't know if Corning can get a 51% in the first round of it. But it's going to be very expensive to sit there and try to hold this. This is probably going to be 100 to $200 million primary at least I think 100 to $200 million primary, if not way more than that. And, and they're really going to gun for his weakness when it comes to, when it comes to issues like immigration. That's where Paxton will shine. Paxton's going to shine on the issue immigration. He's better on it than, than Corin is. He's probably the I not the best aeon in the, in the country because we have Chris Kobach, but he's one of the top three. He's really good on it. And he's going to say I'm the authentic conservative despite my personal life. Don't look at that. Cornyn, who's hired a lot of Trump staffers from the 2024 campaign, is going to sit there and say I'm the guy who could win. And Wesley Hunt's going to be saying I'm the conservative who can win. So yeah, as far as Langford goes, Langford's weak, but you have to have a top tier challenger because you really. Because Langford doesn't screw up that often. Despite him looking like the like, like the killer doll who is from a lot of horror movies, he is very rarely screwed up. He's one of my least favorite senators though, so I would love to see him get a primary challenge. As far as the Senate Conservative Fund and other organizations, they're not large enough. Right. There's no organization as large as the Club for Growth or the Trump campaign. So they would need to be sizably larger take on such in entrenched incumbents. Anyway. That's my, that's my answer on that one. I hope Langford lose and I don't have an opinion on Texas right now. I'm interested to see where things are going because certainly a lot of there's a lot of Republican on Republican violence going on. So we'll see who breaks in the lead as people start paying more attention. I just want to give out Before I conclude this episode, I want to give a personal thank you to one of my listeners, Vince from California. A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that growing up in the 90s, you would see a movie on television and you would never see it again. And I saw this movie one time on TV that I loved and was never able to see it again because that was the 90s and you know, unless they replayed things or you have the TV Guide channel or the physical book in hand, you just didn't even know what was playing sometimes. So I mentioned this movie and I briefly brought it up and said how much I loved it as a kid and Vince from California found the name of this movie. I've spent no joke years trying to find this movie. It was called the Phantom Toll Booth when I was a kid. It was made in 1970. Vince, thank you, thank you, thank you. You have no idea how much like you made my entire week because of your email and how you found this movie. This random movie I was barely able to describe that I saw when I was like 8 years old. So Vince, thank you. I love my listeners. You guys. You guys do the most and I really, really appreciate it and I appreciate you all for listening this episode. If you like this podcast, you can now subscribe to it on YouTube and you could like it on the I Heart Radio I app. Apple Podcasts. Wherever you get your podcast, please subscribe and I will talk to you guys on Monday day before election day. So tune in.
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