It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind How Special Elections Shape Politics

Summary

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The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind How Special Elections Shape Politics

Date: September 1, 2025 | Host: Ryan Girdusky (Guest Host, “A Numbers Game” segment)

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Main Theme & Purpose

In this special Labor Day episode, guest host Ryan Girdusky dives into the political significance of special elections, analyzing historical voting trends to interpret what recent results might suggest for Republicans and Democrats in the upcoming midterms. Girdusky mixes statistics, anecdotes, and humor to question whether current electoral shifts mark a break with tradition or a more structural change, including a look at European political instability. The episode wraps up with an extended “Ask Me Anything” segment on guns and crime, illegal immigrants and driver’s licenses, and political party registration.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Personal update and episode framework (03:46–05:10)

• Ryan updates listeners on his recent bout with COVID, describing a week of illness and marathon documentary watching:

  “I just watched documentaries from like the 60s and 70s and 80s, like every kind of depressing documentary ... I was in a dark place, so I just jumped right in.” (03:57)

• Because of sickness, he opts for an episode focused on important numbers and an extended Q&A.

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2. The Significance of Special Elections (05:12–15:42)

Are Special Elections Predictive of Broader Political Trends?

• Girdusky recalls his first campaign (Bob Turner’s 2010 win in NY) to argue that isolated special elections aren’t always reliable predictors, but collectively, they “point the direction upcoming elections go.” (06:18)
• Presents decade-long data showing how special elections often foreshadow national results, e.g.,
  • 2017–18: Special elections 10.6% “to the left” of prior cycles; 2018 Democrats win by 9 pts.
  • 2019–20: Shift narrows; 2020 Dems win by 3 pts (downtrend for Dems).
  • 2021–22: Special elections move right; GOP wins midterms by 3 pts.
  • 2023–24: Early special elections break sharply for Dems, but GOP closes the gap by the general.

Why the Norms Have Changed—Trump, Coalitions, and Turnout

• Girdusky credits Donald Trump for redrawing party coalitions:

  “Trump changed the coalitions. He brought people who don't normally vote to come vote.” (10:43)

• Republicans are “younger, more ethnically diverse, less religious, less politically tapped,” while Democrats rely increasingly on “highly engaged, wealthy, older voters.” (11:03)
• Memorable imagery:

  “Go watch MSNBC for any ... anti Trump protest over the last six months. Everybody has got gray hair in those crowds.” (11:16)

Current Numbers: Warning Signs or New Normal?

• "Where those districts have had special elections so far this year, those districts have voted 13 points to the left of where they had voted in 2024. That’s the biggest leftward shift in at least the last eight years.” (12:16)
• Is this a sign of an impending “blue wave,” evidence of GOP weakness in non-presidential cycles, or simply proof that special elections are less predictive than before?
• Points to a Republican problem:

  “Republicans are not voting in special elections. They're not voting in midterm elections. They're not voting in local elections. It's a huge drag…” (14:50)

Practical Political Consequences

• Example: Rep. Elise Stefanik didn’t get a sought-after UN job “because trends have turned out so poorly for Republicans in special elections that Republicans couldn't afford the idea…that they may hold her seat in upstate New York.” (15:12)
• Predicts new caution in cabinet picks: presidents will avoid taking sitting members from swingy districts to prevent risky special elections.

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3. Europe in Crisis: France's Political Turmoil (19:31–27:22)

Depiction of French Political Meltdown

• Brief explainer on French polity for American audience.
• Macron’s coalition fractures after snap elections, resulting in a politically “splintered into thirds”—nationalists, centrists, socialists—which spells governance gridlock.
• Parliament now so divided, even basic traditions (e.g., shaking hands) break down:

  “...the youngest member of the French Parliament is from Marine Le Pen's National Rally ... For the first time ... they refused to shake his hand.” (20:52)

Immediate Crisis: Upcoming Vote of No Confidence

• Macron’s unpopular $44B spending cuts prompt opposition from both far left and nationalist right:

  “...they're going to hold a vote of no confidence against you, which unless some miraculous thing happens, he's going to fail. He will be ousted as the prime minister on September 8.” (21:27)

• Macron on track to lose his sixth prime minister, with no likely path to a solid majority or an obvious successor.
• French public overwhelmingly wants new elections, but Girdusky predicts this would only replicate the fractured parliament with further declines for Macron’s party, increased strength for both extremes.

European Nationalist Momentum

• Notes that national populist parties are polling in first place across much of Europe (Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, Netherlands, France, England):

  “That's never happened before. That is a fundamental shift.” (26:51)

• Predicts a sea change if France falls to the nationalist right:

  “If France gets a nationalist government, it will be the largest nationalist right wing government in all of Europe, aside from Italy.” (25:47)

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4. Ask Me Anything: Q&A Segment (31:06–43:44)

Question 1: “More Guns, Less Crime”—Does the Data Support This?

(Kevin from Vermont)

• References John Lott’s controversial work and its critics; plans to invite Lott on for a future episode.
• Argues gun ownership and crime are not simply or predictably correlated—a lot comes down to demographic/racial factors and location.
• Example: Idaho, “fourth most heavily armed state,” has very low gun crime.
• Finds that intra-racial violence is overwhelmingly dominant (94% of black homicide victims killed by other blacks).
• “If you were to separate the races...black Americans, if they were their own country, would be one of the most dangerous countries in the world. And white Americans would basically be what Canada is.” (36:27)
• Girdusky acknowledges this is “tragic” and expresses hope for solution-driven discussion.

Quote (regarding policy complexity):

“How you fix that problem, I don’t have an answer to. I don’t have a clear cut answer to.” (36:51)

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Question 2: Illegals, Driver’s Licenses, and Commercial Licenses

(Matt Osborne)

• Lists 19 states (plus DC, Puerto Rico) that issue driver’s licenses to illegal aliens; only one (Utah) has a GOP majority.
• Approximate numbers: 2 million illegal aliens with state licenses, 60,000 non-citizens with commercial licenses.
• Explains Real ID’s incomplete implementation—blames the Bush administration’s focus on Iraq over comprehensive domestic security reforms.
• Notes lack of federal pressure: “If you wanted the federal government to stop this, all you would have to do is deny highway funds to states that offer illegal aliens driver’s licenses.” (40:18)

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Question 3: Should You Switch Party Registration for Less Spam?

(Frank, Westchester County)

• Girdusky’s take: If you want to vote in GOP primaries, yes, switch — but as an independent, you may actually get more mail/solicitations (since both parties court swing voters).
• “As an independent you’re more likely to get called in a general election...I don’t think you’d be actually inconvenienced that much with mail and other stuff.” (42:40)
• Also suggests that registering Republican can make a difference when many people do it: “It does matter...So come and join the Republican Party. The water’s warm.” (43:17)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On party coalition changes:

  “Republicans have become a party that is younger, that is more ethnically diverse, that is less religious, that is less politically tapped. Democrats...more dependent on highly engaged, wealthy, older voters.” (11:03)

• On special elections as a warning:

  “A 13 point shift in the specials is very, very, very, very bad.” (12:16)

• French political gridlock:

  “Parliament is completely splintered into thirds and there's no way to form a cohesive government and trying to tie together people who really hate each other...” (20:10)

• On handling hard social questions:

  “It doesn't give me pleasure to sit there and say these things. I'm not sitting there and be like, oh, this is amazing. This is...tragic.” (37:09)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:46 — Show open/personal update (Ryan’s COVID week)
• 05:12 — Deep dive: history, impact, and trends of special elections
• 09:51 — Trump effect on voter coalitions and special election turnout
• 13:40 — Present-day special elections: what’s the trend and what does it mean
• 19:31 — Europe segment: France’s political crisis explained
• 26:51 — European nationalists surging in polls
• 31:06 — Ask Me Anything: Q1 on guns/crime
• 39:00 — Q2 on illegal aliens and driver’s licenses
• 41:57 — Q3 on party registration and political junk mail

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Conclusion

Girdusky delivers an episode jam-packed with data, analysis, and opinion, warning that 2025’s special elections—while showing a major Democratic tilt—may not predict the future as reliably as before, thanks to changing coalitions and turnout dynamics. His survey of France’s political chaos provides an international dimension, suggesting that instability and a rightward shift are spreading across Europe. The Q&A segment offers a candid, sometimes uncomfortable look at gun crime statistics and U.S. policy on driver’s licenses for illegal aliens, all delivered in Girdusky’s frank, data-driven style.

For listeners wanting to understand the real numbers and what they might mean for America’s political future, this episode is essential.

Transcript

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[Ryan Graduski]

Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you guys for being here. Happy Labor Day. Hope you're all relaxing on this holiday. Everyone is off a side from me because there's no rest for the wicked. Well, for those who subscribe to my newsletter, you may have noticed I didn't send one out this week on Sunday like I usually do because I was sick with COVID I contracted Covid last week. When? Probably last Monday. I think I contracted. I think I know exactly where I was and apparently Covid still exists. And it knocked me on my rear end for the better part of a week. I'm on the mend. I'm feeling much better. I sound much better. I had to quarantine for a few days, cancel all my plans. I didn't, I really didn't work for like three days, which is very rare for me. I just, I couldn't focus on anything. Fever. Every, you name it, I had it. And I just watched documentaries from like the 60s and 70s and 80s, like every kind of depressing documentary. The Holocaust, AIDS, homelessness, Elvis's manager stealing all his money. I was in a dark place, so I just jumped right in. Um, and I also watched Daisy Jones and the Six by the way on Amazon. Highly recommend it. It's about a 70s rock band, very loosely inspired by Fleetwood Mac, but it was really, really good. Anyway, so since I was down and out most of last week, I wanted to be a bit easier with the podcast episode this week. Give you some important numbers both domestically and abroad and then do an extra long ask me anything. So first, the numbers domestically. They are on special elections. You may have seen a news clipping last week that Republicans lost the supermajority in the Iowa State Senate. That was after three consecutive double digit loss, sorry, losses in three consecutive double digit Trump seats. So seats that Trump won By more than 10 points, the Republicans had lost after winning them originally in 2024. Now special elections, especially when they're isolated, are not good predictors of the future. When I worked for my first big campaign back in 2010, it was for Congressman Bob Turner. He was the Republican running in Brooklyn and Queens against Anthony Weiner. He lost his first election, but then won the special the following year and he flipped a D +7 seat. It was a big deal. It was a big flip, right? But the very next year Obama went on to win re election. He only lost two states that he had won before 2000 in 2008 in North Carolina and Indiana. What the little trend though you saw from Bob Turner's victory was that the Jewish vote, especially the Orthodox Jewish vote, was turning away from Obama, especially over Israel. So on their own they don't tell you that much information, right? But you have to look at them collectively. And when you look at them collectively, you kind of get history tells us they have a way of pointing the direction upcoming elections go. So I got this data from David near from the website the Down Ballot. He's blocked me on Twitter, by the way. Just he's a liberal nut bag. But the data is correct. Anyway, from 2017 to 2018, there were 119 special elections for mostly state legislative seats across the country. Those state Senate and state House seats and congressional seats that had the special elections, those districts on average voted 10.6% more Democratic than they had in 2016, 10.6% to the left of 2016. Then the 2018 midterms came out and Democrats won the popular vote by 9 points. So there was an indicator in the special elections that the way the general election was going in the midterms. Then during the 2019, 2020 special elections, there were 77 races and they moved considerably to the right compared to those of the 20172018 special elections. The 2019, 2020 special elections saw that the districts only moved five points to the left compared to 2016. The 2020 vote comes out and Democrats win the popular vote by 3 points. So once again, it shows that the Democrats have a momentum, but not like they did in the 2018 election. In the 2021, 2022 special elections. Remember, this is when Joe Biden's in office. Now there are 77 special elections. Those districts that had special elections in that time period, they vote 4 points to the right of where they voted in 2020. So Republicans do better in those special elections. The 2022 midterms comes out. Republicans win the midterms by 3 points. Then 2024 happens, and I want to just, I know there's a lot of numbers and probably your eyes are glazing over, but this is like the little caveat. So the special elections in 2021, in 2021, 2022 had Republicans winning them. Republicans with the midterms in 2023-2024, Democrats won specials, right? They won the special elections by 3.5% more than the presidential election in 2020. With the caveat that as momentum grew towards the 2024 election, Republicans started doing better and better and better and winning more and more elections. But they had lost so badly in the very beginning, around 2023, that it, you know, it couldn't mend the entire. It couldn't average out. But as the election grew to new, grew near. Republicans did better. Democrats did 3.5%, 3.5% better than they had in 2020. Republicans won the popular vote by 2 points. So why did this break from tradition, Right? Why was this election cycle, this last election cycle, such a big deal? And how has the norms changed? Well, because Donald Trump changed the coalitions. He brought people who don't normally vote to come vote. And what we saw from the David Shore data, had more people voted in the 2024 election, Trump would have won by a bigger margin. Republicans have become a party that is younger, that is more ethnically diverse, that is less religious, that is less politically tapped. Dem Democrats, on the other hand, have become an older voting bloc. They are more dependent on highly engaged, wealthy, older voters. And so you see from this, I mean, but you can, you can see this anywhere, by the way. This is not like just data numbers. Go watch MSNBC for any anti Doge, anti Trump protest over the last six months. Everybody has got gray hair in those crowds. Everyone going to an Eric Sleewell rally has got gray hair. There is no shame for people of a particular age. I mean, my mom has always said aging is a, is a blessing, not a guarantee. But this is a very specific type of voter that is so much a part of the Democratic coalition, so much a big part of the Democratic Party that they are dependent on them to fill their town halls, to fill their rallies, to vote in their special elections. And because special elections so far this year have not, there's not been that, that many. But where they have happened that those districts, where those districts have had special elections so far this year, those districts have voted 13 points to the left of where they had voted in 2024. That's the biggest leftward shift in at least the last eight years. That's a huge movement towards Democrats. And is it because Trump is incredibly unpopular? Trump is Trump is Trump. Right. He never had the Obama, Bush, Biden bounce post election. I think his highest favorability numbers was 51%. There hasn't been a ton of high quality polling taken recently. But among the ones that I've seen that I really trust in the last month, Trump's approval ratings probably around 46%. Unfavorable is probably 51%. Not awful. It's probably, it's definitely on par with President Obama's second term. So here's the question that I'm going to explore. I don't have the answer for this episode. I'm going to explore the next few months and then I'm trying to read the tea leaves on. Are we witnessing a case where Republicans are headed towards a historic blowout loss in this midterm? A 13 point negative, a 13 point shift in the specials is very, very, very, very bad. Or are we seeing a more permanent change to the way our elections are happening in the sense of in the 2000s, in the 2010s, Democrats counted on general elections with huge turnout numbers. Republicans depended on these special elections. These midterm elections were less people voted because Trump has changed the coalition, because Democrats are increasingly the party of baby boomers. Boomers and hyperactive baby boomers who watch MSNBC all day. Are we just witnessing the way that we change politics, that special elections are not going to be as good of an indicator for the future? I looked up what the generic ballot looks like. Democrats have a 2.5% lead over Republicans. That's not, that doesn't say it's a wave because in 2010, in 2014, in 2018, the polls all showed the wave was coming. This is, doesn't, the poll doesn't show there's a wave coming. Voter registration doesn't show there's a wave coming. Special elections show there's a wave coming. So I think that that's the question that I can't answer for you guys right now. But it's important data to look at on whether or not Republicans will lose the House and maybe the Senate. I don't think that they can lose the Senate, but you know, whatever. Things have been stranger. So. But if we're going to have a 2026 blue wave, I think depends a lot on that. And one of the three indicators I would look at to sit there and say, oh wow, showing a wave is happening says blue wave. And that's special elections because they are voting once again, special elections that have happened this year so far have voted 13 points to the left of where those districts were in 2024. And if your district is having a special election, please get out and vote because Republicans are not voting in special elections. They're not voting in midterm elections. They're not voting in local elections. It's a huge drag on the this is why, by the way, Elise Stefanik did not get her UN job. She did not get the UN job because trends have turned out so poorly for Republicans in special elections that Republicans couldn't afford the idea, the fact that they may hold her seat in upstate New York. They thought that maybe they'd actually lose it if they had to go to a special election. They can't depend on the Republican electorate when it's not a presidential election. So yeah, that's, that is where, that's, that's what's also going to change the way future presidents pick their cabinets. They will not pick them in any swingy ish district at all. If it means that they're going to have to hold special elections that will put will compromise the majorities and that's something I don't think is going away. Okay, enough about special elections. I'm going to go to one other issue before I get to ask me anything about something that's really important, that's happening in Europe that nobody's covering.

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So if you're paying attention to the news from Europe, you can see that the continent is really dealing with a lot of turmoil and political instability. That's only going to get worse next week, specifically on the date September 8th. That's when France's parliament will take a. A vote of no confidence on their prime minister. Okay, let me take a step back to my mostly American audience. I have a few European listeners, but the most American audience who don't know French politics. France has a very strong presidency, the strongest in all of Europe, right? Parliament is basically there to rubber stamp the president's agenda. This is the historical truth. And the president appoints the prime minister and then the legislature approves it. When you have the majority, your party has the majority in the legislature, it's very easy to get your prime minister approved. Emmanuel Macron, who was first elected president of France in 2017, came with a huge parliamentary majority representing political centrism in France. He was a capitalist who supported reforming France's finances, supporting the institutions of Europe. He was socially progressive for France. The media was absolutely in love with him. And most importantly, people hoped he would fill the role that Angela Merkel, German Chancellor Angela Merkel left when she retired, that he could basically be this unifying political juggernaut within Europe. Macron's popularity has fallen into tethers. Right? It is fallen apart like unbelievably in the last, especially in the last year. He surprisingly last year called for snap elections for the parliament, special elections, as I was just saying, and it resulted in his party losing the majority. Basically the parliament, the French parliament, which has always had historically one party governing it at any given time is base is, is essentially now a third nationalist, right and right Wing parties, a third centrist parties and a third socialist and far left parties. So there's no real chance to govern the parliament. It is completely splintered into thirds and there's no way to form a cohesive government and trying to tie together people who really hate each other and want nothing to do with each other. I'll tell you this perfect example. In France, there's a tradition where the youngest member of parliament who's elected gets to, he like shakes the hand of every new member as they're sworn in. It's some weird tradition they have in France. Anyway, it's nice actually. When you look at it, you're like, oh, this is, this is nice. Anyway, the youngest member of the French Parliament is a, from a, from the National Rally, from Marine Le Pen's Nationalist National. Her right wing party, the National Rally. Other member, for the first time I think ever, they refused to shake his hand from all the other parties at a protest that she, that her party, which is the largest party in the largest single party in the parliament, had his member as the youngest elected. I mean, it's crazy. They really hate each other. So with Macron right now, his current prime Minister, Francoise by RU, he's pushing forward a $44 billion spending cut which is highly unpopular. The French, they love spending a lot of money and retiring early and all the rest of it. Well, he thought he'd be able to push this through and he'd be able to kind of wiggle his way, but actually they're the, the members of the far left and the nationalist right are saying no, we' going along with this. And in fact, not only are we not going along with this, but we're going to hold a vote of no confidence against you, which unless some miraculous thing happens, he's going to fail. He will be ousted as the prime minister on September 8. France is going to go from one of the most stable political governments in Western Europe since 1958 to the most chaotic because this is the sixth prime minister under Emmanuel Macron, three in the last two and a half years. And if op poll found that 63% of French citizens want to hold another snap election, but if that happens, we're going to get basically close to the same hung parliament we're going to get now that no one will get a majority. I mean, party numbers will shift. Macron's party will probably decline even further. And the far left and the nationalist right are going to grow in numbers. But France is in dire financial, financial shape. Their budget is crazy because of their generous pension program, and they don't know what to do. Macron has said that he's going to possibly tap his current Defense Secretary as the next Prime Minister if, if they hold the snow confidence, which they're going to. I don't see how any prime minister, given the number of members in the parliament and how the parliament breaks down, is going to vote any different. I just don't, I don't see that. The big question is, will Macron end up resigning? Because, I mean, he lost six prime ministers, three in two and a half years. He's going through them every couple hundred days. This is not a good look, people. Right now he's saying no. He's saying I'm staying until my term ends in 2027, but almost. And he's saying this is because he always wants to protect his legacy. He doesn't want to be the man who stepped down. Guess what? Your legacy looks worse if you leave with like a 7% approval rating and someone you hate. Well, he's going to hate whoever the successor is, no matter what, because there's no, there's no soft landing right now for France. It will be worse for him, though, if Jordan Bardella, who was of the Nationalist Party, or if one of the far left leaders, becomes the next president, President of France in his absence after he retires. I just don't see how he comes out of this smelling like daisies. And he doesn't want to resign, but there's literally no safe place for him right now. France is headed towards a giant political crisis and either Jordan Bardella and the National Rally, this is the Nationalist Party, the national Rally, or the far left will inherit the political throne, is my prediction of France. Something is going to happen that will be like never seen before. And France, if France gets a nationalist government, it will be the largest nationalist right wing government in all of Europe, aside from Italy. And right now, for the first time ever, I don't think there's been a time the Nationalist Right are polling in first place in Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, France and England. I think they're still in second space. They're third in Spain, third in Portugal. I'm not reading this, by the way. I'm going up my head of the polls I've seen before. Second in Sweden. So yeah, first in England, France, Italy, Austria, Czech Republic, Germany and Switzerland and the Netherlands. That's never happened before. That is a fundamental shift. If all those countries had out Giorgia Meloni, you know how different Europe will look. You know how emboldened Giorgio Maloney would be anyway, it's fascinating times. Next week it all happens. We'll see if Emmanuel Macron can survive. Next up is Ask Me Anything.

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Okay, now it's time for Ask Me Anything. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryanumbers game podcast.com that's ryanumbers game podcast.com first question comes from Kevin from Vermont. He said, I've heard it said more guns equal less crime. What do the numbers say? If you could conclude numbers from other countries around the world, I love to see the numbers line up with what you see in the U.S. kevin, thank you for your question. So the phrase more guns, less less crime comes from John Lott, who's a very smart WR writer. He wrote a book with that name in 1998. He's republished it several times if you would like to get it. It's more up to date than 1998, but I actually sent John Lott a DM, inviting him to this podcast to discuss it for a whole episode because I think it's actually a really great topic and he's done so much of the research about this. His stuff has a lot of detractors, as anyone who makes those kinds of sentences and claims would have, but he's a very, very smart guy when it comes to gun ownership. The United States is far and away the most, you know, gun happy country in the world. Right. We are first only behind Yemen, Serbia, Montenegro, Canada, Uruguay, Cyprus, Finland and Lebanon. Those are very diverse countries. So it's not helpful to compare what gun ownership and crime look like in all those places. I look specifically at America and when you talk about crime and I'm going to go specifically into gun violence. Right. And homicide by guns. You hear a lot of Republican states have the highest amount of homicides. And Republicans, that's what Democrats like Gavin Newsom say. And then Republicans say, well, those are Democratic cities and Democratic mayors and they try to boil everything down to partisan politics. When you examine which states have the lowest level of gun crime, they are Maine, Hawaii, Rhode Island, New Hampshire and Idaho. Three of those five states have concealed carry laws. Maine, New Hampshire and Idaho all have concealed carry laws. You can all, you can all constitutional carry is what they also call it. You can carry a gun with you at all times. Idaho is the fourth most heavily armed state in the entire country too. So there's lots of guns and very little crime. But I think that the easy association, and I'm not happy to sit there and say this, but the easy association is race. I mean that's a lot to do with gun crime in this country. Gavin Newsom likes to sit there and say, oh, it's red states. Well, the top five highest states for homicides are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, New Mexico and South Carolina. So I'll put New Mexico as a side for an outlier. Right. But the four of the five other ones are four or five blackest states. If the, according to the FBI and CDC statistics, the the homicide rate by race is overwhelmingly one sided on all these other states. In Mississippi, the number of blacks killed in the state was 39.2 per 100,000. For whites it was 4 per 100,000. You are 10 times as likely to be murdered in a gun crime if you are black in Mississippi than if you are white. Now I know I have a, I have a few liberal listeners and I love them. And they'll sit there and say, well, what makes you think that it's not the white people killing the black people? Well, because federal statistics and lots of crime statistics, black homicide rate is 94% intra racial. That means 94% of the time someone who is also black has killed a Black person. Right. 19 out of 20 times for white people. It's also very high. It's 86% intraracial. It's five out of every six times. Not as high as the blacks. But it's an overwhelming majority. Black men in Mississippi between the ages of 15 to 34 are 5.4% of the population and 48% of all homicide victims in the state. So when we sit there and say we have a crime problem, a homicide problem, a, you know, a problem with gun crime in our country. Yes, but it is so overwhelmingly within one very small demographic. How you fix that problem, I don't have an answer to. I don't have a clear cut answer to. But if you were to separate the races in. In how crime is happening to them, black Americans, if they were their own country, would be one of the most dangerous countries in the world. And white Americans would basically be what Canada is. It's very easily on par. It is a complete racial breakdown, which is why the crime breakdown is different. It's why you always see, like, New England states as some of the safest. Anyway. All right, I'm not. It doesn't give me pleasure to sit there and say these things. I'm not sitting there and be like, oh, this is amazing. This is, you know, look at, look how great white Americans are. I'm saying that this is tragic. And it's been going on for a very, very, very long time. And hopefully one day someone figures out a way to crack down on it and stop so much blood shedding. Okay. And by the way, I'm gonna invite John Lott on. I really want him on talk about, specifically about gun ownership and crime and other sorts. All right, next question comes from Matt Osborne. He writes about the horrible incident in Florida where an illegal alien driver from India killed three Haitian migrants because he was driving a tractor trailer. And he clearly didn't know any of the laws on the road. He writes, rogue states issuing driver's licenses, especially commercial driver's licenses, create huge problems for law abiding parts of our society. What are the numbers data on illegal aliens with driver's licenses and commercial driver's licenses? Wasn't real ID supposed to. To fix this? Okay, so there are 19 states that offer driver's licenses to illegal aliens. They are Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Illinois, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Hawaii. And Utah is the only state with a Republican legislator and Republican governor who could overturn that in a heartbeat. The District of Columbia also gives out driver's licenses to illegal aliens, as does Puerto Rico, which. Okay, anyway, so I don't know why Hawaii does. I mean, I guess they're on an island, whatever. So there's no national database for the number of illegals with driver's licenses. This is a data compiled. The data I'm offering you is compiled by the National Conference of State Legislatures and the National Immigration Law Center. There are an estimate, and this is just an estimate because we only really have data on a few states, so we have to kind of like average them out from what other states are issuing. But there's probably 2 million illegal aliens with legal driver's licenses on the road throughout the country today. When it comes to commercial driver's licenses, it's really even more difficult to figure out the exact number. But the best estimate that comes is a 2025 OverDrive report that finds approximately 60,000 non citizens currently have commercial driver's licenses, which is, I mean, like crazy high. I mean, we. Anyone can, I mean, not anyone, most people should be able to get a driver's license or has one. So I don't know why American citizens who can't find a job aren't getting those jobs over non citizens. But whatever the question of real ID, yeah, real ID should have worked. But like so much of the 911 Commission's findings, that was pushed aside and implementation was pushed aside because we, the Bush administration was so dead set on going to war in Iraq. There was a lot in the 911 Commission that was, that came out in 2004 that seems like such common sense to deal with counterterrorism that was never implemented. Like entry, exit, visa systems, like a border barrier. Yeah, the 911 Commission called for a fence or wall type situation long before Trump ever came down, you know, the escalator. But the Bush administration just flat out ignored it. They had some dimsy little thing over a few hundred miles. It wasn't a completed fence. It was a complete. It was a, it was a joke is what it was. And he did not do the real ID Act. So some of the stuff still hasn't happened. Like some of this stuff is still not complete 20 years later. 20. What is it 20? 21 years later and 21 years after the commission was reported, and 24 years since 9 11. And states have certainly have a level of autonomy and the Republican president, and no Republican president, not even Trump has put teeth to this issue. If you wanted the federal government to stop this, all you would have to do is get the Republican Congress and Republican Senate or Republican President to sit there and to deny highway funds to states that offer illegal aliens driver's licenses. That's all you'd have to do. This is how the seatbelt Laws really took off seatbelt laws. I mean there was Moms Against Drunk Driving. That was a big part of it. But seatbelt laws really started popping up across states back in I think the 1970s and 60s. I think it was mostly the 70s, but they really started popping up a lot in the 70s and 80s because there is, it is attached to federal highway funds funds. That is why only one state, New Hampshire does not have highway seatbelt laws. And that's why they do not get federal highway funds or they, I guess they get parted, but they don't get the full amount because they will not pass a seatbelt law. Okay, last question comes from Frank. He writes, I live in Westchester County, New York. I'm a registered as an independent years ago, but I thought it would cut down on mails and phone calls from the Republican Party. Is there any benefit to switching my registration to a Republican other than being able to vote in primaries? I don't think I've ever voted for a Democrat except for a local judge where conservatives run as Democrats just to win. Is there any benefit? Well, I think actually as an independent you're more likely to get called in a general election in my opinion because in. It depends on west part of Westchester you're living. If you're living in a, in a very heavily Democratic part of the county, you. It is likely that there's probably no Republican primaries to begin with. A Republican Party just nominate somebody and they get the party line and then they run and independents are really a good group to go to, to try to swing towards them. So I think that you probably get actually more letters and registration being an independent than a Republican. I don't know. That's what my opinion is. I'm a registered Republican. I've. I think that being able to vote in the primaries matters a lot more. And I don't think you'd be actually inconvenienced that much with mail and other stuff. I think I really do think you probably get more as an independent. So yeah, I mean, yes, you get to vote in primaries. That's the one advantage. I think you'll actually get less mail and that's it. I mean there's nothing else really to it aside from, I guess showing support for the party. Support for it looks good on when newsreels come out and they sit there and say so when so many people join the Republican Party as a one person thing, it doesn't really matter when thousands of people do it. It does matter. I mean that's like people sit there and say, should I join? Should I become a Catholic? I mean, I've been a Catholic my whole life. Yeah, I would say yes, but that's my own, my own bias. So. So come and join the Republican Party. The water's warm. I don't think there's any specific advantage to it aside from voting in primaries, but I do think if you're worried about the mail and the phone calls, I don't think that you're gonna. I think the only thing that will happen for you is you'll get petitioners to come to sign a petition so people get on the ballot. Aside from that, now it's about the same amount. So thank you guys for listening to this podcast. Happy Labor Day. I'll be back on Thursday post Covid feeling much better. If you like this podcast, please subscribe on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts wherever you get your podcast and I will see you guys then.

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