The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind How Special Elections Shape Politics

Date: September 1, 2025 | Host: Ryan Girdusky (Guest Host, “A Numbers Game” segment)

Main Theme & Purpose

In this special Labor Day episode, guest host Ryan Girdusky dives into the political significance of special elections, analyzing historical voting trends to interpret what recent results might suggest for Republicans and Democrats in the upcoming midterms. Girdusky mixes statistics, anecdotes, and humor to question whether current electoral shifts mark a break with tradition or a more structural change, including a look at European political instability. The episode wraps up with an extended “Ask Me Anything” segment on guns and crime, illegal immigrants and driver’s licenses, and political party registration.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Personal update and episode framework (03:46–05:10)

• Ryan updates listeners on his recent bout with COVID, describing a week of illness and marathon documentary watching:

  “I just watched documentaries from like the 60s and 70s and 80s, like every kind of depressing documentary ... I was in a dark place, so I just jumped right in.” (03:57)

• Because of sickness, he opts for an episode focused on important numbers and an extended Q&A.

2. The Significance of Special Elections (05:12–15:42)

Are Special Elections Predictive of Broader Political Trends?

• Girdusky recalls his first campaign (Bob Turner’s 2010 win in NY) to argue that isolated special elections aren’t always reliable predictors, but collectively, they “point the direction upcoming elections go.” (06:18)
• Presents decade-long data showing how special elections often foreshadow national results, e.g.,
  • 2017–18: Special elections 10.6% “to the left” of prior cycles; 2018 Democrats win by 9 pts.
  • 2019–20: Shift narrows; 2020 Dems win by 3 pts (downtrend for Dems).
  • 2021–22: Special elections move right; GOP wins midterms by 3 pts.
  • 2023–24: Early special elections break sharply for Dems, but GOP closes the gap by the general.

Why the Norms Have Changed—Trump, Coalitions, and Turnout

• Girdusky credits Donald Trump for redrawing party coalitions:

  “Trump changed the coalitions. He brought people who don't normally vote to come vote.” (10:43)

• Republicans are “younger, more ethnically diverse, less religious, less politically tapped,” while Democrats rely increasingly on “highly engaged, wealthy, older voters.” (11:03)
• Memorable imagery:

  “Go watch MSNBC for any ... anti Trump protest over the last six months. Everybody has got gray hair in those crowds.” (11:16)

Current Numbers: Warning Signs or New Normal?

• "Where those districts have had special elections so far this year, those districts have voted 13 points to the left of where they had voted in 2024. That’s the biggest leftward shift in at least the last eight years.” (12:16)
• Is this a sign of an impending “blue wave,” evidence of GOP weakness in non-presidential cycles, or simply proof that special elections are less predictive than before?
• Points to a Republican problem:

  “Republicans are not voting in special elections. They're not voting in midterm elections. They're not voting in local elections. It's a huge drag…” (14:50)

Practical Political Consequences

• Example: Rep. Elise Stefanik didn’t get a sought-after UN job “because trends have turned out so poorly for Republicans in special elections that Republicans couldn't afford the idea…that they may hold her seat in upstate New York.” (15:12)
• Predicts new caution in cabinet picks: presidents will avoid taking sitting members from swingy districts to prevent risky special elections.

3. Europe in Crisis: France's Political Turmoil (19:31–27:22)

Depiction of French Political Meltdown

• Brief explainer on French polity for American audience.
• Macron’s coalition fractures after snap elections, resulting in a politically “splintered into thirds”—nationalists, centrists, socialists—which spells governance gridlock.
• Parliament now so divided, even basic traditions (e.g., shaking hands) break down:

  “...the youngest member of the French Parliament is from Marine Le Pen's National Rally ... For the first time ... they refused to shake his hand.” (20:52)

Immediate Crisis: Upcoming Vote of No Confidence

• Macron’s unpopular $44B spending cuts prompt opposition from both far left and nationalist right:

  “...they're going to hold a vote of no confidence against you, which unless some miraculous thing happens, he's going to fail. He will be ousted as the prime minister on September 8.” (21:27)

• Macron on track to lose his sixth prime minister, with no likely path to a solid majority or an obvious successor.
• French public overwhelmingly wants new elections, but Girdusky predicts this would only replicate the fractured parliament with further declines for Macron’s party, increased strength for both extremes.

European Nationalist Momentum

• Notes that national populist parties are polling in first place across much of Europe (Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, Netherlands, France, England):

  “That's never happened before. That is a fundamental shift.” (26:51)

• Predicts a sea change if France falls to the nationalist right:

  “If France gets a nationalist government, it will be the largest nationalist right wing government in all of Europe, aside from Italy.” (25:47)

4. Ask Me Anything: Q&A Segment (31:06–43:44)

Question 1: “More Guns, Less Crime”—Does the Data Support This?

(Kevin from Vermont)

• References John Lott’s controversial work and its critics; plans to invite Lott on for a future episode.
• Argues gun ownership and crime are not simply or predictably correlated—a lot comes down to demographic/racial factors and location.
• Example: Idaho, “fourth most heavily armed state,” has very low gun crime.
• Finds that intra-racial violence is overwhelmingly dominant (94% of black homicide victims killed by other blacks).
• “If you were to separate the races...black Americans, if they were their own country, would be one of the most dangerous countries in the world. And white Americans would basically be what Canada is.” (36:27)
• Girdusky acknowledges this is “tragic” and expresses hope for solution-driven discussion.

Quote (regarding policy complexity):

“How you fix that problem, I don’t have an answer to. I don’t have a clear cut answer to.” (36:51)

Question 2: Illegals, Driver’s Licenses, and Commercial Licenses

(Matt Osborne)

• Lists 19 states (plus DC, Puerto Rico) that issue driver’s licenses to illegal aliens; only one (Utah) has a GOP majority.
• Approximate numbers: 2 million illegal aliens with state licenses, 60,000 non-citizens with commercial licenses.
• Explains Real ID’s incomplete implementation—blames the Bush administration’s focus on Iraq over comprehensive domestic security reforms.
• Notes lack of federal pressure: “If you wanted the federal government to stop this, all you would have to do is deny highway funds to states that offer illegal aliens driver’s licenses.” (40:18)

Question 3: Should You Switch Party Registration for Less Spam?

(Frank, Westchester County)

• Girdusky’s take: If you want to vote in GOP primaries, yes, switch — but as an independent, you may actually get more mail/solicitations (since both parties court swing voters).
• “As an independent you’re more likely to get called in a general election...I don’t think you’d be actually inconvenienced that much with mail and other stuff.” (42:40)
• Also suggests that registering Republican can make a difference when many people do it: “It does matter...So come and join the Republican Party. The water’s warm.” (43:17)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On party coalition changes:

  “Republicans have become a party that is younger, that is more ethnically diverse, that is less religious, that is less politically tapped. Democrats...more dependent on highly engaged, wealthy, older voters.” (11:03)

• On special elections as a warning:

  “A 13 point shift in the specials is very, very, very, very bad.” (12:16)

• French political gridlock:

  “Parliament is completely splintered into thirds and there's no way to form a cohesive government and trying to tie together people who really hate each other...” (20:10)

• On handling hard social questions:

  “It doesn't give me pleasure to sit there and say these things. I'm not sitting there and be like, oh, this is amazing. This is...tragic.” (37:09)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:46 — Show open/personal update (Ryan’s COVID week)
• 05:12 — Deep dive: history, impact, and trends of special elections
• 09:51 — Trump effect on voter coalitions and special election turnout
• 13:40 — Present-day special elections: what’s the trend and what does it mean
• 19:31 — Europe segment: France’s political crisis explained
• 26:51 — European nationalists surging in polls
• 31:06 — Ask Me Anything: Q1 on guns/crime
• 39:00 — Q2 on illegal aliens and driver’s licenses
• 41:57 — Q3 on party registration and political junk mail

Conclusion

Girdusky delivers an episode jam-packed with data, analysis, and opinion, warning that 2025’s special elections—while showing a major Democratic tilt—may not predict the future as reliably as before, thanks to changing coalitions and turnout dynamics. His survey of France’s political chaos provides an international dimension, suggesting that instability and a rightward shift are spreading across Europe. The Q&A segment offers a candid, sometimes uncomfortable look at gun crime statistics and U.S. policy on driver’s licenses for illegal aliens, all delivered in Girdusky’s frank, data-driven style.

For listeners wanting to understand the real numbers and what they might mean for America’s political future, this episode is essential.