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Jacob Goldstein
is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive and when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales, to inventory, to accounting, all linked and talking to each other. Check out odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com have
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Ryan Graduski
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to A numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you guys for being here. I had an insane weekend that I want to tell you about before I get into the topic at hand. So first of all, very important, I don't really talk about this very often, but I held, I hosted company over the weekend, made my grandmother's home homemade meatballs and sauce and let me tell you, it was a home run. More importantly, I had to go to D.C. to just go for a work meeting. It was a quick 24 hour turnaround trip. I get there late one night and I said, oh let me go meet with somebody, just have dinner with somebody. So my every shot to my friend who's a very well known reporter and he said come to Cafe Milano. This is a very chi restaurant, very expensive, a place that people want to be seen at, right? Because it's a lot of connections and people in the D.C. scene. So upon entering I immediately see three U.S. senators with a very well known D.C. military contractor. So I, I, you know, I spot that out of the corner of my eye. I roll my eyes and I just keep walking. Well, we get to the table where my friend's at and he has some friends, British friends who are reporters and politicians at the table as well. And most Americans, that means nothing to them. But for me, because I follow British politics so frequently, I knew exactly who was sitting with us. So it was a former member of the British Conservative Party, a very, very prominent member of the British Conservative Party. This was a Man who was in charge of all the vaccinations during COVID this was. He ran for Prime Minister and lost to Liz Truss. Most Americans, by the way, would not. That would not register at all. I immediately knew, I only not only knew who he was, I knew his record. And he was kind of for an American. He's way too big government for America. And I guess in Britain he wouldn't be considered very conservative. Anyway, anyway, so we start talking and we're chatting about, you know, the state of England, the state of American politics. We're talking about Nigel Farage and Reform uk and he has since left the British Conservative Party to run to work, to be part of Reform uk. And someone at the table asked him, are you going to run for office again? And he said, he's being considered, he's considering doing it. He's considered running for office again. And, you know, people always accuse me of being abrasive and, or putting on a show that I'm abrasive. I am the same way morning, noon and night. Whether you see me, whether you don't. I mean, it's, it's always the same personality. So I kind of, I couldn't hold my tongue back. I just said to him, respectfully, sir, your party was in the majority for a decade in the UK and you did virtually nothing. Like, you left the country off way worse than when you found it. And why, like, what did you learn differently this time than last time? Like, why are you gonna. What, what, what else could you possibly, you know, wreck if you get elected again? And he said some interesting things, especially about energy policy. The UK has a horrendous energy policy. They have net zero, which is doing terrible things for their and identifies, particularly like the Tories. The Conservative Party should have made their identity about wiping away former Prime Minister Tony Blair's record. Tony Blair is the one who kicked open the floodgates of third World mass immigration to England. Tony. Tony Blair pushed forward on, on, on zero. Him and his successor, Tony Blair had the Equality act, which put all these policemen at risk of losing their jobs if they were accused of racism when the grooming gangs were happening. I mean, Tony Blair was a horrendous Prime Minister to the uk and the same way that Trump's a lot of Trump, what Trump does is to erase the Obama legacy. The Tories should have been very, very complicit in erasing Blair's legacy. And they kind of went along with the continuing a lot of Blair's legacy. It was crazy. So after pushing back I just, I, I try to make everything nice. I said what is some interesting things that you remember from your time there being such a senior ranking member of the ruling party? And he said that there's thing in the UK called Cobra. Now I had hear, heard of it before but my, the other guest didn't. COBRA is like the secret government meeting of top notch people. When there is a national crisis going on. It's like, it would be like going to, it's not the same thing as Camp David but. Or the situation maybe like going to the situation. It's called COBRA in the uk. It's not the health insurance alternative policy, it's called cobra. Anyway, that's also called cobra. That's American Cobra. Back to the, back to the story. So I said what was, what are some things like that you can share that were two like crazy moments during cobra? And he said one was the vote to shut down the government because he said that he wasn't for it. Knowing what he said, I don't, I don't believe that. I think he was probably very forward shutting down the government. But he said the weirdest thing is the COBRA meeting was in London. So it's a huge city, it's millions and millions of people. So he like they agree we're going to shut the government down. And then he walked down to the street to as he called it, humanity. There's thousands of people walking past him and he goes, the whole time I'm thinking you have no idea what we've just decided. Like we're going, everyone's on lockdown like in 24 hours. And you're all just go, this is the last moments you have to go about your business the way that you've been doing your entire lives. That was kind of fascinating from a psychological. He wasn't taking, glean it by the way. He wasn't sounding like a sociopath. He was, he was doing like this is insane. And then the second thing, this is crazy because I had not even heard of this and I follow the news pretty closely. He said that they got a COBRA call because this is several years ago. Putin was going to test a nuclear missile in the Black Sea which is the, of, you know, water barrier between Russia and Ukraine and Turkey and all these other. And a lot of the Balkan nations. And he was going to test, yeah, he was going to test the, the, the, the a nuclear bomb. And I said what did you do? Like what do you do when you hear that Putin's gonna test nuclear bomb? He, he said we Immediately started trying to call China to ask China to turn, talk him out of it. And we were trying to figure out every other world leader with a close relationship with Putin to turn to make him change his mind. Anyway, he did. He changed his mind in the end. But it was a fascinating story. It really had me kind of gripped to the edge of my seat. All right, that was, that's the whole story. That was the whole weekend. But that was a weekend trip. But it was, I thought it was great. That was really an interesting caveat that you guys would really like. Okay, so over the last week, something else completely different aside from my trip and the dinners I cooked were that came out and it's around the topic of AI which you guys, I have not had like an autistic spasm talking about AI in quite some time, so give me some credit. But we're going to talk about it now because it involves both politics and policy and polling. All my favorite subject matters put into one. So let's talk about specifically the polling. First, David Shore, who's a very, very intelligent Democratic pollster. I'm big fan. I've invited on this podcast many times. He's not since come. I don't think he's gonna come because like I know a lot of progress. I've had a lot of good progressives on the show but a lot of them are afraid that they're going to have be attacked by the liberal mob if they come on and talk with me. I don't know, I am assuming that I was never been told. I actually was told that by one person. But I'm assuming that's the truth. For everyone who, who doesn't agree to come, who is a progressive that I, that I think is smart. But David Shore is a very smart progressive and he had a data about AI that I think you all need to hear. So here's what he found in his data. No issue has increased in importance to average voters than AI. No. No other issue. Not think of everything that's come in the last year. Right. The only other issue that even comes close to how much people have taken interest in AI is war in the Middle East. Put that into perspective. How much coverage has war and conflict in the Middle east received in, in mainstream media, in alternative media, in. In social media and versus AI? It's I believe if you studied it, you know, dollar for dollar it's probably one sided for, for war with Iran and war in the Middle East. Nonetheless, people care about more AI more than they care about any other issue. Including war. Secondly, AI is hitting at a time where most Americans are increasingly saying life is unaffordable. Only 9% of Americans say that life is getting more affordable and 61% say life is more unaffordable. Only 25% of voters say they feel confident in their financial future. That is not big. Especially when you consider how much of the population is wealthy, retired or on, you know, benefits of some sort where they're not. Where the government is financing a lot of their life. That's a huge part of the electorate. That's a huge, huge part. And still only 25% feel good in their financial future. Third, a majority of voters, 56%, are worried about their job security and 79% are concerned the government doesn't have a plan to protect workers from AI job loss. 77% are concerned that industries are going to be eliminated and 79% are worried there will be fewer opportunities for young people. Those are those 8020 issues. That is like a poll question asking should a known rapist with, you know, a penis be allowed to shower next to a nine year old girl in a public bathroom? And if he declares that he is a woman, like that's that lopsided, right? I want you to put this into perspective. This is not an issue where there's a lot of gray nuance. People have serious opinions that are extremely one way. It is like the transgender issue. It is one way and it is going towards that way. It is increasingly moving towards that way. We're going to have a transgender episode next episode, by the way. But another, another transgender episode. But anyway, this is where it's going. It's a moving in one direction. Fourth, voters do not trust the notion that everything is going to be fine. When told that I will create economic productivity that benefits everyone. 56% of voters don't trust that statement. 36% say they trust it somewhat to a lot. Voters also do not trust the idea that I will not cause widespread job loss. 26. Only 26% of voters believe that AI will not cause widespread job loss. 67% do not trust people who say that. When asked what is the more important funding the creation of new jobs and basic benefits like health care, even if it means limiting the amount that American tech companies can profit from AI or keep innovation. So the American out out competes the rest of the world in developing AI, even if it allows tech companies to profit from eliminating jobs. By the way, David Shore, who made that question, little bias, little bias of a question. Anyway, obviously they cared more about Protecting jobs than innovation. Next question. And while I want you to hear this, I want you to. If you hear nothing else from this entire podcast, listen to the next two points I have said over and over and over again. AI is how Democrats are going to put socialism in this country. Ro Khanna was on this podcast and basically said it. It's his plan for the New Deal. Massive redistribution of wealth, even at mass unemployment levels. When asked if people would rather have a job or direct handouts like ro Khanna said, 54% said they would rather have a job and rather have the government ensure they have a job. Only 17% want direct handouts. 15%. Only 15% are libertarians who say we don't want the government to do anything. 55% want to make sure tech companies cannot make unlimited profits. They include a plurality of Trump voters. Listen to me and listen to me carefully with what I just said. More Trump voters believe tech companies should be held financially responsible for the jobs they destroy through AI that AI eliminates than believes they should be able to profit off of it. This is not a small thing. This is not a, oh, maybe there's some gray area. Maybe we're gonna. Maybe. No. Remember I had on, I had on the pollster a couple weeks ago who said that he was shocked by how, how politics has become a circle that very far right wing people are believing in very far left wing things and we're not a linear political belief anymore. This is a perfect example when nearly 50% of Trump voters are saying tech companies should not make unlimited profits. We need to regulate them. It is not a question of if those regulations are going to come. It is a question of when and to the severity. You need a very smart politician to make sure you do not destroy the entire system. Or they just vote for someone who will throw a, you know, a Molotov cocktail. They will vote for a Trump of the left. They will vote for an AOC type. I'm not joking when I say this. It is a very sincere point I am making right now. It's not a question of if, it's a question of when. Last two points on this poll. And while voters prefer a tax that specifically taxes companies on AI, they like that more than like the idea of a wealth tax. Remember the California wealth tax? They're taxing billionaires. All these billionaires are fleeing. Only 27% of voters want a wealth tax because overall we are a capitalist nation. But 49% want an AI tax. And if you don't do one, Republicans, listen. If you don't do one, you will end up with the other. I'm making it perfectly crystal clear if you don't push for some kind of AI tax or movement, you will end up with a wealth tax. Lastly, AI specific populism outperforms all other conversations around economic populism and AI when it comes to support helping Democrats win elections. It moves into the needle, the electorate needle. An average of 4% towards Democrats. Do you understand what that means? It means you go From a Trump 2024 election to an Obama 2012 style election if just the AI populism point is hit on. Now obviously there's other issues. There's transgender issues, there's immigration. There's a lot of things Democrats believe that are nutty and batty and crazy. You put the unemployment level at 10 to 20% because of all these AI regulations and AI innovations. Rather we are in a different world then. Now this all comes as two things are happening. There are two competing Republican rollouts when it comes to AI regulations. The first is from the White House. It is a four page memo on the AI Framework policy. It is pretty straightforward. It's only four pages. If you want to go read it, it's pretty simple. I'll go through a few few points because it is. It's a lot to read. But basically there's the main the first point is about protecting kids. It says Congress should empower parents and guardians with robust tools to manage their child's privacy settings, screen times, content exposure and account account controls. A meaning it's on the parents. They're going to do the same thing they do for YouTube and all the other stuff that that has gone forward for a lot of these social media websites. But it's all on the parents. It's not to the AI companies. Congress should establish commercially reasonable privacy protective and age assurance requirements for the AI platform sets on the AI companies. Congress require AI platforms and services likely to be accessed by minors to implement features that reduce the risk of sexual exploitation and self harm to minors. Congress should affirm that the existing child privacy policies apply to the AI systems, including limits on data collection for model training and targeted advertising. All of the most regulatory or regulatory language around AI came from the child section about protecting kids where I think you're going to get the most amount of bipartisan support. And also the taxpayers should not be increased should not feel the increased electricity costs from data centers streamline. Federal permits are on AI infrastructure. That's a boon for the industry, grants for small businesses so they could develop AI in their businesses. Once again boom for the industry. More antitrust liability for AI. That means that you can't just steal people's content. More protections on copyright. Allow for collective rights and licensing framework. Prevent government from forcing AI companies to comply with ideological standards. That's a whole free speech stuff. And when the next Democrat comes in, Congress should not create any new federal rulemaking body that regulates AI. Once again big win for the AI industry and should instead support a development and deployment of sector specific AI applications through existing regulatory bodies with a subject matter expertise and thorough industry standard level led standards. Expand efforts to study trends with job losses. What a stupid freaking part of the bill. And develop AI youth AI youth development program also incredibly stupid. Also we're going to have an education episode about what we're discovering with AI and education. It's going to make your jaws drop. But okay. But mostly the AI companies win big time. Because what this outlines on the bill, what an outline does is it says to the states, it gives them. It gives a little bit around child protection, a little bit around copyright protection guidelines for Congress. But what it mainly says is Congress should preempt state AI laws that impose undue burdens to ensure a minimally burdensome national standards consistent with these recommendations, not 50 discordant ones. This national standard should respect key principles of federalism and not preen a traditional police powers retained by the states to enforce laws of general opponents applicability against AI developers and users. State zoning laws, requirements of governors to state their one's own use of AI whether it be procurement or services. Preemption must also ensure that state laws do not govern areas better suited for the federal government. States should not be permitted to regulate AI development because it is inherently an interstate phenomenon. State should not unduly burden Americans use of AI for activity that would be lawful if performed without AI. States should not be permitted to penalize AI developers for third parties unlawful conduct including involving their models. I. E. What that means is someone using AI to harm you. AI companies not. They're not, they're not responsible. It's a huge win for the AI companies. Huge win. It is. It's as if somebody that the whole outline is if somebody just woke up one day from the White House and said guys, we're doing the bare minimum today. That's what it is. It's the bare minimum. I mean the voters are going to respond positively to the child protection stuff that, you know, respond, respond positively towards issues around copyright and licensing. What they will not respond positively to because we know how slow Congress moves is all other regulation only can go through Congress when they're giving so limited regulations in this, in this bill. I mean, there's not a lot there. This doesn't have a ton of teeth. And it's more protections for AI industry than it is regulations to protect citizens and protect workers is like not in there at all. Now, Senator Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, Republican of Tennessee, also issued her own bill around AI regulation. Unlike the four pages from the White House, this bill was 291 pages long. I'm not going to pretend I read it. I did not read it. But it covers a series of AI regulations and that are overwhelmingly popular voters and absolutely encroaches on AI companies ability to make endless profits while displacing American workers. That is why the AI tech people, the minute the bill came out, started screaming how horrible it was. And you can already see by the way the White House has reached out to all their influencers to talk about how amazing their framework is. The people who don't have a high school diploma are screaming how great. They know. They know everybody. AI regulation at this point, it's amazing. It's. The Marsha Blackburn bill is obviously an open opening, you know, offer. It's not a perfect bill. It will go through many, many different cycles, but it is there. It is something. It is also baffling to my mind how the White House is doing this now in March, knowing how few dates are available left for this Congress to even offer an AI bill, knowing that parts of the bill are so unpopular ahead of the midterms. This makes no sense. Whatso. I mean, I cannot even get into the whole political standings of this entire thing. Tone deafness must be clinical to a lot of this White House. Tone deafness must be completely clinical. It must be, I don't know, contagious. I have no idea. Something is going on where they are not reading the room and they're only hearing influencers who want to be invited to the right parties and people in the business sector who want some profits because that's all it seems to be. And everyone else is getting scraps. I can't describe it any other way. I think this is insane. I just think this is completely insane. While all this is going on, there's a primary in Chicago where AI and crypto and the American Israeli Political Action Committee all were working to have their own candidates win. $32 million was spent on four House races in Illinois. Staggering amounts of money, larger than all the campaigns themselves is the outside money that these companies especially AI are now putting to get their chosen person elected to Congress that will play ball with them on the issues. And they're not even running on the AI issue. It's very complicated, but it's very interesting. Stay tuned for my for my interview with Dave Weigel, national reporter who cover this. That's coming up next.
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Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with a AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to Public and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc, SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures this
Jacob Goldstein
is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need. Check out odoo@o d o o.com.
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that's o d o o.com have you heard about Klarna? Klarna is an app designed to make everyday spending simpler and more trans transparent. It gives you flexibility to decide how you want to pay, whether that's paying right away, paying later, or spreading payments over time, depending on what works best for you. Everything is managed in the Klarna app so you can keep track of purchases and stay organized. You can also discover deals and even earn cash back when you shop through the Klarna app with participating brands. It's all about flexibility and staying in control of how and when you pay. Download the Klarna app today or visit klarna.com to learn more. Terms apply California resident loans made or arranged pursuant to a California Finance Law License NMLS Number 1353190 Klarna Balance Account required to be eligible for cash back points Limitations. Terms and conditions apply.
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Ryan Graduski
With me on today's episode is David Weigel, the national political reporter for Semaphore. David, thanks for coming on this podcast.
David Weigel
It's great to be here. Thanks for having me.
Ryan Graduski
So, David, you covered the Illinois elections. As I said in my monologue, this was an incredibly expensive series of house primaries. Over $32 million spent by just a few groups. And that's not including the progressive interests who were the biggest winners of this election cycle.
David Weigel
The absolute biggest winner in Illinois was Governor Pritzker. So Governor J.B. pritzker, I think, famously is a billionaire, is able to fund whatever campaign he wants. He did this when he first ran for governor. He's done it in the subsequent campaigns. He's shoveled money to state parties where he might want a favor later if he runs for president. He basically helped elect Juliana Stratton or nominate Juliana Stratton. His lieutenant governor. The sense I got there from covering that campaign is that it was Raja Krishnamoorthy, the congressman who'd spent $40 million, much more than ever been spent to win that seat In Illinois, the U.S. senate seat. U.S. senate seat to replace Dick Durbin. He had the advantage Fritzger deciding to put millions of dollars into super PAC for Stratton. That changed that race down the ballot. He helped people that he wanted. I think he had a 100% record now he wasn't as involved in the House races. And so that was a nice messy story. There was not one particular narrative from the election. What you saw instead was groups that had played in it come out quickly to declare victory. AIPAC was the most vocal saying we had a great election night. It was not that great of election night. It was better than. They started the year in New Jersey with a debacle where AIPAC spent millions of dollars to beat Tom Malinowski ended up with a more left wing. Okay, sure. Sorry if we go too fast, but go.
Ryan Graduski
No, no, no, no. I want to, I want to set the stage because that is true. So the biggest winner is the Governor Pritzker who's likely running for president or at least flirting with.
David Weigel
Yes.
Ryan Graduski
Apac, the American Israeli Political Action Committee. They are the pro Israel pack as you said in New Jersey earlier this year. Really campaigned against Tom Malowski, the former congressman to defeat him. Ended up with a further left wing anti Israel candidate. Now they invested in how many seats in this election in Illinois and would how they come out in four.
David Weigel
They won two, they lost two. The one that they had the biggest victory in in Southside Chicago in the suburbs that that's where Jesse Jackson Jr. Lost. They were helped by Jesse Jackson Jr. Being pretty toxic to all but his base of voters. The other one they won Northwest suburbs of, of Chicago, like Schaumburg, places like that. They were pulling in the same direction as Fair Shake and the AI packs that are new to this cycle that also had a pretty mixed night. So APAC won two races. It, it declared victory overall. And I'm been critical, not critical since the election, but just pointing out factually as it was clear that they were not going to run the table. APAC's public spin started to be well, we want to keep these potential squad members out of Congress and so we're going to keep Kat, Uber, Gazella, Bushwallah who is running in the 9th district, which is Evanston, Illinois and part of Chicago. Frankly. I went to Northwestern, I lived in Evanston. It's really the district where people they go to school they usually live in Wrigleyville when they graduate and maybe they get a kid and move to the suburbs. Very district I know a lot about. They wanted Dan Biss to lose the mayor of Evanston who is when I talked to me progressive Zionist Israel should exist, but we should stop funding them militarily. They wanted to beat him. They got behind Laura Fine, who's a state senator who's much more pro Israel down the line this and this he was telling everyone before the election he's talking about more but after this IS polling said AIPAC's brand is terrible in a highly educated progressive district. He ran against AIPAC and he said my opponent is supported by aipac. I am a progressive who's going to oppose them and never take their money and never be influenced by them. So they did. They did spend to beat Abigail who was more left wing on Israel more calling it a genocide. She didn't even support Iron Dome. During one of the debates she said, you know, supporting weapons. There's no such thing as defensive weapons. Yeah.
Ryan Graduski
She's on CNN a lot. You famously she if anyone may know her, she was the woman who went to the ICE protest and they literally threw her on her ass. Like they, they picked her up and threw her on her ass. Yeah, she, she. But she wasn't even from the district when she ran.
David Weigel
She wasn't. She had no ties to the District. Her partner, which she disclosed is Ben Collins who took over the Onion last year I believe in 2024 I believe is when he took it over. And they moved there because she lost her job at Media Matters when they downsized after a bunch of state and Elon Musk lawsuits. She ran. As I have fought billionaires, I'm responsible for getting Tucker Carlson off the air. Yes, I'm not from here but. But I'm the sort of Democrat you want to get to have in D.C. fighting for you actually did a good job with no ties. The district got 26% of the vote and turnout was very high there. I mean I the what's the biggest left wing victory that set off a lot of their strategy was AOC winning in 2018. More people voted for Kat and Abu Gazella in this district than voted period in that AOC race.
Ryan Graduski
Right.
David Weigel
30, I think 31,000 or 32,000 votes. So she did tap into something there. But Bis had a record as a progressive critic of Israel and I think if this is not in that race in a divided field, she, she probably could have won. She. She had more support than Laura Fine.
Ryan Graduski
Yeah.
David Weigel
So APAC took credit after the election, but they, they really learned in that district that the brand, the APAC brand after a couple cycles of doing this, and I've been covering this since the beginning, APEC starting up a pack with a different name running in a seat. If people say APAC supports you, it is now a huge demerit in a Democratic primary. And the other race they lost was kind of the Loop of Chicago, the very safe seat in downtown Chicago. They backed City Treasurer Melissa Conyers Urban. She flopped. And another Democrat was elected. APAC Trudeau show credit because a more pro, a more anti Israel Democrat was not elected. But no, that was so far for the cycle. APAC is. They're 2 for 5 on who they actually want to be in Congress winning to.
Ryan Graduski
They're. They're, they're winning by losing in their words. And the one person that they back,
David Weigel
it's what's, what's, what is it Puris? What is Puris said or somebody said to Pyrrhus. You know, another victory like that and we're done for. Like, that's kind of the, the apex style in these primaries.
Ryan Graduski
Yeah, the, the other person that they really back was Melissa Bean, former congressman running again. She was backed by APAC crypto Nai. She basically had the, the everyone supporting her with all this outside money. And she was the one victor for basically everybody. Before I go to AI, let's go to crypto. They spent a lot of money, the crypto people. They're putting a lot in this entire election cycle. How did their election shake out?
David Weigel
No, not great. So this is the worst night for the crypto pack since they've gotten involved in politics that started in 2024. They didn't pretend it wasn't. They quickly reacted to the results and said, look, we spent for these candidates. We got three people elected. They took credit. There was Nikki Baczynski, who's a Democrat in a safe seat. And the Illinois gerrymander's famous. There's a lot of C seats because they'll draw a line across the state to get all the Democratic precincts. She had a progressive challenger. She smoked him. They took credit for that. But that wasn't really competitive. Fair Shake Bean was the biggest victory they had. So been this former congresswoman. She lost in the 2010 wave. She was one of the most conservative Democrats in the House when she was there. And the campaigns, all of them, including hers. But Fair Shakes ads really leaned on this they kind of reintroduced her as a progressive, pro Obamacare, anti ice Democrat. The victory had a lot to do with progressives did not unite behind anybody. So Bernie Sanders and AOC got behind the same person. Warren got behind him. Ahmed, who was a pretty well known progressive in the district, but the Congressional Black Caucus backed somebody else. There was a. There were other electeds in the, in the, in the race who had no support, but they kept running. So bean WINS was about 32% and there's no runoffs in Illinois. That was a good victory for Fair Shake. Fair Shake is also on the right side in, in the district that Jesse Jackson Jr. Lost the second in the south side. But it spent $10 million to help Roger Krishnamoorthy. I was double checking. That's the most they've spent on the candidate who lost. And Fair Shake has made these very. A little bit ironic. If you're a crypto investor, you have some capacity for risk. Fair Shake's pretty careful Fairshake generally moves into winnable races or races where somebody's winning already. Like who was a Democrat supported in 2024, Ruben Gallego, who was always favored to beat Carrie Lake. It really wanted to beat Sherrod Brown. Spent a lot of Brown. It has. It's been good in races where the battlefields might go their way. Anyway, they took this risk on what did not look like a risk on Raja and he lost.
Ryan Graduski
So this is not a pretty decent amount too.
David Weigel
He was bigger than people thought. Yeah.
Ryan Graduski
It wasn't particularly close. And the ironic thing with his race is he won rural, exurban white parts of the state and got demolished in the progressive areas and in the ethnic areas and in the black areas.
David Weigel
Yeah, that and you could tell on election night talking to the campaigns. They knew Raja was in trouble early on because some of the first counties that are reporting are more rural outside the city. Places where Stratton did not have the money to put a go on the air, even with the super pac. And he wasn't doing that great. Like rural Illinois outside of East St. Louis. He was. He was tied there. Losing. Losing to Stratton. Parts of that. Any place where there was a college, any sort of. Any place with a lot of state workers. He was getting crushed. So he, Stratton and I talked to her ad makers for something else I'm writing. Stratton ran this very smart campaign where she. Her first ad was a bunch of people saying F Trump vote Juliana. But they said the word. The letters after F. The three letters after F. They said that and the goal was, let's identify her as the, not just Pritzker's friend, but the Democratic fighter. Whereas Raja is this much more mealy mouth guy who raises a lot of money. They, they made her the, the fighter candidate, which is very successful. Robin Kelly, this, this congresswoman who left her seat in the south side. That's why it was open. She ran as a more progressive Democrat. She was the only one to say that Israel's carrying out a genocide in a debate in kind of a. She didn't roll that in a weird way, neither here nor there, but just, just this. She at the last minute said, oh, it's a genocide. So she, People who wanted Raja to win were pushing her, saying, if you're a progressive, please waste your vote on her. Didn't really work. And so talking to the campaigns, what Raja did, Raja always had a heavy carry. I mean he was a congressman from the suburbs, but he was not a, he's never been a dynamic celebrity candidate. He's a, he's a more progressive down the line, but will break from the party sometimes. Democrat, very good fundraiser, but not really somebody who generated passion. And the fact that he ran those, these ads running for him across the state backfired in an important way. So the Fair Shake ads and some of his ads attacked Stratton because one of her group packs got donations from an ICE contractor private prison company that contracts with ICE. They ran these ads, those two PACs in the campaign, saying Stratton was taking money from ICE contractors. And what I was learning during and after the campaign is that that backfired just because voters did not look at Jamie Pritzker's lieutenant governor and think, oh, she's bought off by ice. Stratton had already attacked Raja by saying he'd gotten money from Palantir. Very just. And there was a bit of a race to who could be the most pure, most unwilling to take money from anybody who did something bad, according to Democrats of 2026. But she won that argument. And people didn't think, they didn't believe that she was, she was truly soft on ice. And ICE was huge issue in this. The fact that Pritzker, whatever, whatever credit one people want to give him for working against ICE in the state, trying to get them out. Stop the operation. Democrats love that. You mentioned Katuba Gazella getting thrown at the, at the protest of Broadview, the ICE detention center. That really made her that. And her getting indicted for doing that. She went from. And the polling was all over the map, but she went from somebody who was an interesting story but not really fighting for first place to after that she was very credible. And Democrats really have we learned in this primary really put a premium on if you are willing to fight Trump on specific things he's doing and maybe risk your own safety to do it. You know, oh, I'm going to vote for Medicare for all that matters less than if you are going to prove that you're really fighting Trump.
Ryan Graduski
Yeah, we're really in a French Revolution era of the Democratic Party where it's like the Age of Enlightenment. Everyone has to an age of enlightenment. But, but the, the whereas Rose Pierre putting everyone on trial.
David Weigel
The ring of terror part. Yeah.
Ryan Graduski
Agent terror part of the Democratic primary cycle that's just boiling down in New York where they have that really important primary in New York 12 where Alex Boris is the and is the AI regulation guy and he happened to used to work from paler. So he the AI companies are saying you worked for paler. Meanwhile they are, they all are associated with paler and it doesn't really matter anybody. Okay. AI speaking of AI, let's go into AI how did AI spend in this election? How do they fare?
David Weigel
One thing I will note at the top and I when I was writing about the races, I was fairly sympathetic to something the left was saying, which was these companies are spending money on packs. They're not saying vote for this candidate who's good on our issues. They were saying vote for this candidate we've told and this is the best issue for him. He's a fighter for affordability or he's fighting ICE or something. So the AI IAI PACs split their money. They were in for Bean, as you were saying, she was the biggest win for all these groups of the day. They went in for Jesse Jackson in his comeback. Jesse Jackson Jr.
Ryan Graduski
I should say not the deceased Jesse Jackson, obviously, but his son is a person with. How do I say this Pyle seemings have a long history of mental health issues.
David Weigel
Yes. Very well known. His son went to went to jail for misusing campaign funds. About three quarters of a million dollars in campaign funds he spent on himself. And the story there is he, he was in a safe seat. He wanted to run for Senate one day or be appointed to the Senate. He asked Rod Blagojevich, who has been pardoned by Trump about that Senate appointment. After he didn't get that appointment. He has struggled with depression and was spending a lot of money on gifts for and his wife, his now separated, well divorced partner. And he went to jail. He came out he, he tried to re. Establish himself in his, his, his 60s now as a different man, as a man who'd learned, he wrote a book, his mom wrote a book of their prison letters. It just wasn't very credible in the south side of Chicago. So I got the sense the AI PAC thought, well, this makes sense. This is the candidate that can win in this district. And he was also very pliable. Jesse Jackson Jr. Is putting out these in videos about his, his economic plans that basically said, yes, I'm, I'm for building data, I'm building data centers. I'm for what AI wants to do. It's, if you've seen Eddington, they're basically the ads that Andrew Pascal's mayor is running in that movie and didn't work. So they, they did, they did for Melissa Bean, didn't work there. And these are tough. Remember we were saying it's gerrymandered. So some. Two of these seats were in Chicago, in the city, very working class districts, mostly black districts. Two of them were more suburban. The suburban ones are more amenable to it. And because there was so much money in it, didn't become like that Alex Boris race. Boris is really trying to turn his campaign to a referendum on I can't be bought by AI. The AI money just didn't become as big of a story. It was just this cloud of, of PAC spending and they blurred into it.
Ryan Graduski
Well, I think that, I think the two things you said were really important. One, the amount of money from third party entities is now larger than any campaign or really larger than almost all the campaigns put together at this point. Yeah, it is its own. I mean, this is, this is the, the outside money for these four House races is large enough to be a U.S. senate race in itself in the primary. Can you speak about that at all? Like the immense amount of money being put into these races?
David Weigel
Oh yeah, these are again, safe. Democratic seats were usually the winner. Now there's always gonna be PACs and groups get involved, but the winner typically only has to spend maybe two or three million dollars to win those things and has no Republican opponent in the fall. So they don't even become big fundraisers. So everyone was outspent by these, by these super PACs. The Senate race was only not lopsided because Raja Krishnamoorthy had raised so much for his own campaign. But the money that Fairshake spent, the $10 million in that race, that's as much as Dick Durbin spent for every one of his Senate each year. He would spend about 10 million, $12 million for the entire race. And so that became a major issue in Chicago and all across Illinois. But most of us in Chicago of people turning because it's one big media market, the tv, the mail was dominated by these new packs and people had not heard of them. And there are a lot of bitterness now. The most progressive cat is lost. But they were very bitter. Are not inclined to be pro AI in the first place. You're seeing this division where progressives are a little bit more Luddite, a little more anti progress on AI because they see the working class job loss part of it. But they were really turning on these facts because suddenly we're getting mail in their mailboxes that talked about how this candidate was corrupt and this candidate took money from corporate interest. So the ad was coming from crypto or from AI.
Ryan Graduski
Well, I think that's, I think the most important what you said is that they're not even talking about the subject of AI. They're not talking about crypto, they're not talking about any of this. They're talking about other things like ICE and immigration and, and making that the referendum and not telling you who's spending or what they're spending on behalf. It's a very, it's, it's, it's different than back in the day when there would be corporations giving candidates a lot of money for their to make their own case. But this immense amount of super PAC spending is beyond what you usually see
David Weigel
it is and that's important. The last thing you said, because there is disclosure regulation for money campaigns take, there's less for the super pacs. This has been the penumbra that I think has made people very cynical is this area where PACs can rate some PACs and 501C3s can raise money and either never report exactly where it came from. Progressives do this all the time. There's a, there are donor funds and they gave to some group and you never find out where the money really came from. Or there's PACs that could start up on the calendar where they're not going to release their donors until after the election's over. That's what happened in Illinois where all of a sudden in January, Elect Chicago Women, Chicago Progressive Partnership. These groups were popping up with the, everyone's awareness. They're not going to report who took who their money is from. AIPAC did not get credit, did not take credit, I should say, for putting these facts into the field. And so that has made people very cynical because the old way is this candidate is taking. Here are his donors. You can go to the FEC and pull down. Okay. He took this much from the dialysis industry. Isn't it coincidental that he has a dialysis bill in the Congress? This really has broken that connection where. And it's led to a lot of paranoia about where money's coming from. And so you were saying that the final stage of these races were just people accusing each other of well, you took money from this guy and you took money from this and you 10 years ago took money from this. And then it was. It became very much about donors of the campaigns in a way that was much messier and less enlightening than it that it used to be where somebody oh, this guy's taking money from the oil industry and he represents the Houston. That makes sense, right? It was much, much more scattershot in terms of connecting the money to what they were doing.
Ryan Graduski
Okay, my last question to you and you mentioned that all the progressive the progressive candidates lost a lot. I was going to talk about that, but it's not that interesting. What is interesting is going into the next couple of election cycles, in the next couple primaries, where are these three major groups, Crypto, AI and. And Israel APAC spending and where is the next big fight going to take place in which primaries or which states?
David Weigel
One coming up is. Is, is Colorado. The answer is these PACs are going to spend in places where there are for mostly Democrats because I think that most people expect Democrats at least to win the House. Democrats who are facing progressive challenges are open seats where somebody has a pro AI position, somebody's anti. So Colorado has a couple of competitive races. It has in the Denver district. Diane, to get. She's experiencing what happened to some candidates in Illinois, which is the Sunrise Movement, which is a climate group. And I have a story about this group that's now doing a lot of campaigning around APAC and data centers. Less, less climate. It has people what they call bird dogging and going up to her and asking her about her funding for Israel, recording it, targeting her. Now that's the sort of race that I think these PACs are going to look at and say is it worth spending some money to defend somebody who's good on our issues against a progressive who's going to tear us up up. That's what happened in North Carolina. Not to expand the aperture even more, but North Carolina had its primary two weeks ago and it was really AI's interest that wanted that saved a Democrat who had a progressive challenger because she was on the AI Democrats special committee. She was not going to regular. Well, I'm not going to give her all in politics. But her opponent was running against AI and data centers. They said, well this is clear. We'd rather have a Democrat who deals with us than one who's running against us. That will matter. In California you're going to see some of the spending.
Ryan Graduski
The one who is more pro AI one.
David Weigel
Yes. And the one who's more pro AI one by one point. You're going to see this in California too because of the new map drawn by Democrats there. In Virginia, if this new gerrymanders succeeds, which has to be voted on April 1, same thing there, there are going to be new open districts. And you saw wherever there is an open seat, candidates face this question should I put something on my website or have a meeting with one of these groups or sign a pledge that says I'm pro technology, pro AI, pro crypto. If I am, I might get money spent for me because you can't actually coordinate. You can just say you can't go to a super pac. You're not allowed to still legally, although it's not really the fec, doesn't really do anything about it. Can't go to a super PAC and say I'm with you, please spend this much money here. What you do is sign some forms or take some pledges that signal what your politics are. Or if you have a record, you say look at your voting record and then put on your website. It'd be really nice if somebody ran ads for us on these topic and this topic and this topic. The downside is and you saw a little bit of snow. If you're that candidate in a Democratic primary, you're going to get a progressive hitting you in saying this person's bought and paid for. So that is, that is the risk. That is the risk assessment candidates are doing. Is it worth getting free money if I might get accused of taking too much free money? Right.
Ryan Graduski
Well Jayle, where can we go to follow your reporting? Right. A lot of really interesting stuff on the congressional side and all these elections that are coming up.
David Weigel
Yeah. So it's@semaphore.com I have a newsletter that comes out weekly called Americana that's reported around the country. We have other newsletters every day. We have independent stories. I put a lot on Twitter too on X I, I link to the stories but also I build out a lot of stuff on X because is it's really helpful. Whatever people think of the site, it's really helpful to in real time say what do people think of this? Get reactions and sometimes somebody comes out of the woodwork and says check out this race. But the reporting that I am going to edit the quotes I travel I put it in the stories. That's sema4.com well thank you so much for this podcast.
Ryan Graduski
I really appreciate it.
David Weigel
Thank you.
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Ryan Graduski
now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment segment, email me ryanumbersgame podcast.com that's ryanumbers plural numbersgamepodcast.com love getting to all your questions. This one comes from Chris. It is a little long, so Chris, I'm going to abbreviate it. He says you've been knocking out of the park with your scorch earth deep dives and interesting guests. Thank you Chris. I really really really been working hard on this podcast to try to make it something good and I think people are starting to take notice. You were mentioning how Ohio has changed significantly over time. You write that the private sector labor unions that provided such a blue wall and support Northeast Ohio have disappeared with offshoring and automation. Hamilton county, which had a healthy balance of Republican leadership, has basically gone out of the city and into the suburbs. But it's all Democrats at this point. Anyway, your main question is Amy Acton is a Democrat, is a formidable candidate in the sense that Gannett paper, Cincinnati Inquirer, Columbus Dispatch elevated her to a Fauci esque status during COVID and continue to fawn over her. I hope that Jessica Anderson is correct in her assessment that Houston and Ramaswamy will be competent, each will complement each other because I'm very concerned of the low propensity Trump voters sitting this out. There's a Jesuit joke in there somewhere about why Vivek is so unlikable. He mentions it in his book book but plays fast and loose with his high school education at St. Xavier. And yeah, I don't here's the thing about I think the question is about is Amy Acton is formidable or do the Republicans have a chance? It's a Democrat year. It just its way it's playing out. And Sherrod Brown's a very well known name. But this is Sherrod Brown's fourth time or fifth time at bat that voters do know him and they just kicked him out. And I think with Johnny, you said he's as bland as you could possibly get. There's nothing that, I mean, I think he had a, a quib the other day that kind of went out that didn't land. But besides that, he's been, he's very, very, very bland and he's very smart because he's making voting voter ID a big issue. He's even throwing it to the Democrats. Now, I don't think he's very controversial and I think Sherrod Brown's just going to attack him as being a Trump supporter, but in overwhelmingly Trump state. So I, I've heard that there's polling that share is up, but not by much at this point in Ohio. A lot of times the Democrats up, but not by much. And it seems that Sherrod is actually polling worse than Acton. Here's the thing about Acton. Yes, Acton was all about shutting down the government, acting was all about, you know, all about, about, you know, Covid, how she gained prominence. The thing is, is there's two major issues. Remember when I said on this podcast, all the Ohio listeners, Ramaswamy is not going to show himself much in the ads because they did and I know this from the presidential campaign. They tested it. That when he was on camera, people liked him less then when people talked about him. And in his second ad that came out, his first ad was his wife. And his wife is very lovely and sounded very smart and, you know, was very compassionate and did a great job. In the second ad, his. It was somebody else also talking about him. It was not him talking about himself. And then he got on television or wherever he was and he said, our problem is we have too many public colleges. We should condense them. Now, you could say that's a really smart idea or yes, that's possibly true. Or let's. Let's look at this analytically. That's something you do once you are in office, not something you say when you are running for office. Because what that means for Joe Schmo in Miami, Ohio, or, you know, in. In parts of the state that are really in not great financial shape is it means one of the biggest job providers for their local community. It may possibly go out of. Because vc, it's not. That's. You don't say something like that. Like, you don't say, hey, let's put kids in school all year long while you're campaigning. Which another thing VC did. Don't try to think you're smarter than the voters. Running for office is not. And excuse my language, but this is truth. Running for office is not an exercise in mental masturbation. It's not to show everyone, look how bright I am. I can think of 7 million different ideas that, that you have to live under. That's not the point. The point of a good candidate to run for office is to repeat what their people already feel, promote ideals that they understand. You're not trying to educate them. You don't, you know, bring up 50. We're gonna launch people into space and then they're gonna bring out their own energy from the sun. No, no, no, listen. Talk to them about things that they already know, things that are tangible. Tangible solutions. I always tell it to candidates. Tangible solutions. If you can't run on just, you know, words and phrases like hope and change or the free market or American exceptionalism. If you can't use that and you need actual policy solutions run on things that people understand. Don't try to sound smarter than them and make the solutions tangible. If you close your eyes and you thought of what Build the Wall looks like, you could think of what that tangibly looks like. Like close your eyes, you can think of what Medicare for All actually looks like. It's a tangible, easy to understand, comprehensible solution. Vivek is not doing any of that right now. And that is why Amy Acton is winning some. I think it was Cook Political or one of these pollsters that analyzed the sailor race, moved the Ohio race from likely Republican to lean Republican and then blamed it on the fact that Vivek is Indian. It is nothing to do with that at all. It is literally because he is making himself as unlikable as humanly possible. And to answer your question, question, Chris, I think that there is a world out there where Houston wins, but so does Amy Acton. I don't think they have to win as a pair. I do think there will be crossover because I think Vivek is doing everything he possibly can to turn people in these college towns and say, hey, your whole livelihood could be down the drain. We don't know. We'll see. I think this is a good idea, possibly telling moms, hey, guess what, those summer vacations you were planning, let's talk about having school all year long and you and changing the way you've done things and you've done things for generations. He's creating instability in people's minds about the future of their state and that's a scary thing. And he's not doing a great job at it. He still is the likeliest candidate to win. I want to emphasize it to you because Ohio is so Republican, but he's doing everything he can to lose. It is. He is his race to lose and he is making sure he can try to lose it. That's all. And you guys know I'm not a fan of aek. I'm trying to really call it balls and strikes as it is and not temper my personal feelings with my political assessment. He does also one of the things has a lot of union support, which Republicans usually don't have, so maybe that also will bail him out. Unions don't always vote for who their bosses support, just FYI. All right, that's this episode. I'll see you guys on Wednesday. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast and on YouTube and if you're feeling generous, give me a five star review. It really helps. Share this podcast, everybody. I will see you guys on Wednesday.
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Date: March 23, 2026
Host: Ryan Graduski
Guest: David Weigel, National Political Reporter for Semafor
This episode, hosted by Ryan Graduski, delves into the unprecedented spending and influence of Super PACs—particularly those funded by AI and crypto interests, and the American Israeli Political Action Committee (AIPAC)—in the recent Illinois House primaries. With over $32 million spent in just four House races, Ryan and guest David Weigel break down who spent what, how it shaped races, and what it signals about the future of American politics. The discussion also touches on public polling anxieties around AI, the evolving stance of voters (including economic populism), and the new strategies used by outside groups to influence elections.
Ryan’s D.C. Weekend:
Shares a story about a chance dinner with a prominent UK Conservative politician. Conversation touched on UK politics, the failures of conservative governance, and how legacy issues (like Tony Blair’s immigration policies) still shape UK politics.
Inside a UK Crisis Meeting:
The UK guest recounts “COBRA” meetings—their high-level crisis group—discussing the decision to shut down the government during COVID and averted nuclear saber-rattling by Putin.
61% of Americans say life is unaffordable. Only 25% feel financially secure about the future.
Over half (56%) worry about job security; 79% fear government lacks a plan to deal with AI-induced job loss; 77% think entire industries could disappear; 79% are worried about opportunities for young people.
Democrats are poised to use AI as a justification for new forms of economic redistribution.
54% of voters want the government to guarantee jobs; only 17% want direct handouts; only 15% are libertarian about government AI intervention.
55% believe tech companies should not make unlimited profit off AI—this includes a plurality of Trump voters.
Taxation Preferences:
Political Importance:
White House Framework:
Senator Marsha Blackburn’s Bill:
Massive legislation (291 pages) with strong worker protections, much more regulatory, and instantly disliked by the tech industry.
The contrast:
Quote, on political timing:
“Tone deafness must be clinical to a lot of this White House...they’re only hearing influencers who want to be invited to the right parties and people in the business sector who want some profits because that’s all it seems to be.” (26:10 – Ryan)
“We’re really in a French Revolution era of the Democratic Party...the ring of terror part.” (43:53 – Ryan)
“It is not a question of if those regulations are going to come. It is a question of when and to the severity.” (13:49 – Ryan)
“The amount of money from third party entities is now larger than any campaign or really larger than almost all the campaigns put together at this point.” (47:09 – Ryan)
“This really has broken that connection where...you never find out where the money really came from...” (50:39 – Weigel)
This episode offers a granular, behind-the-scenes look at how outside money—especially from new AI and crypto interests—is reshaping American primaries. The hosts argue that the primary engine of change is not what is said about AI or crypto, but how these groups fund candidates on wedge issues. Major takeaways include the rise of AI anxiety among voters, the bipartisan populist instinct to regulate big tech, the overwhelming influence of outside money, and how legacy political brands (like AIPAC) can backfire with educated primary voters.
For More:
Follow David Weigel’s reporting at semafor.com and on Twitter/X.
This summary covers the core discussion and analysis, skipping non-content (ads, sponsor breaks, outro).