Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It’s a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Minnesota’s Billion-Dollar Welfare Fraud Scandal
Date: December 8, 2025
Host: Ryan Girdusky (guest hosting)
Guest: Ryan Thorpe, Investigative Journalist, Manhattan Institute

Episode Overview

This episode centers on Minnesota’s staggering billion-dollar welfare fraud scandal involving Somali refugee communities. Host Ryan Girdusky breaks down the details behind the fraud, the policies that enabled it, the media’s response, and the larger debate about immigration’s fiscal impact. Investigative journalist Ryan Thorpe joins to discuss his reporting on the scandal, the breakdown in oversight, and the political and social dynamics in play.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening: Jobs for Young People and Shift to the Main Story

• Ryan encourages young men or their families to consider careers as Merchant Marines, highlighting high pay and demand due to a shortage in the US, before pivoting to the main topic. (01:04)
• Transition to Politics: Girdusky introduces a recent story by City Journal on massive welfare fraud perpetrated by Somali immigrants in Minnesota.

2. Background: Minnesota’s Billion-Dollar Somali Welfare Fraud

• The fraud spanned numerous government programs in Minnesota and, notably, millions of stolen welfare dollars were traced to the terrorist group Al-Shabaab in Somalia.
  (03:00–05:00)

• Host’s Reaction:

  • Girdusky criticizes the media’s sympathetic reporting towards Somali immigrants and challenges statistics presented about their positive impact on the state.
  • Quote:

    "They are sending five times more money to Somalia than they are to the tax coffers in Minnesota. And that’s considered a fair trade to the liberal media." (06:44, Girdusky)

3. Media and Political Response

• Girdusky notes the media downplays negative statistics (crime, welfare dependency, poverty rates) for the Somali community and brands criticisms as racist.
  (07:50–09:40)

• Discussion of Governor Tim Walz’s defense of the Somali community after Trump’s moratorium on immigration from countries like Somalia.

• Implication:
  The reaction, both politically and in the media, is to sweep negative narratives under the rug, stymying honest conversation about the efficacy and consequences of large-scale refugee resettlement.

4. Immigration and Economic Impact by the Numbers

• Comparing immigrant groups' economic/cultural contributions:

  • Immigrants from Israel, China, Ukraine, and Canada disproportionately found billion-dollar businesses in the U.S., while those from Somalia and Mexico have almost none.
    (09:37–10:15)

• Notable Data Points:

  • The net lifetime fiscal impact of an average Somali immigrant: –$300,000; refugees: –$400,000.
  • Median household income for Somali immigrants increased only marginally in two decades (~$22k in 2000 to ~$25k in 2018).
  • High poverty and incarceration rates persist despite significant public and private investment.

• Quote:

  “You need two to three generations to pay for the first generation of immigrants and four generations to pay for the refugee.” (11:25, Girdusky)

5. Why Honest Discussion is Difficult

• Girdusky argues that blanket pro-immigration slogans obfuscate real consequences, and that honest debate is suppressed by accusations of racism.

• Summarizes the Minnesota refugee story not as an isolated incident but as symptomatic of deeper systemic issues.

• Quote:

  “Why are we not allowed to lay out the numbers… here’s where immigrant groups perform on crime, welfare dependency, poverty, education, social mobility, social capital. This is not a net benefit to our country…” (13:35, Girdusky)

6. Interview: Investigative Journalist Ryan Thorpe

[16:16–29:26]

a. Fraud Mechanics and State Enablers

• Thorpe’s Breakdown:

  • Fraudsters exploited programs with minimal oversight and low barriers for reimbursement.

  • Insular Somali community, generous welfare, and risk-averse (or politically correct) state officials enabled large-scale fraud.

  • Quote:

    “…these programs almost seem specifically designed… to facilitate fraud. In some ways, we’re talking about very low barriers for reimbursements or to get access to the funds in the first place.” (16:52, Thorpe)

b. Role of Political Leadership

• Failure of oversight attributed in part to Governor Tim Walz, according to whistleblowers in state government.
  (18:40, Thorpe)
• Walz is identified as “primarily responsible” for lack of response and accountability.

c. Media’s and Political Class’s Reaction

• Discussion of reluctance to address issues due to fear of being labeled racist, the Somali community’s voting bloc importance, and progressive politics that stifled oversight.
  (18:00, Thorpe)

d. The COVID Food Program Scam

• Brief revisiting of the earlier COVID-era fraud: Somali ringleaders received state awards, highlighting a lack of vetting and accountability.

e. Scope of the Fraud and Links to Terrorism

• Billions could still be unaccounted for; true scale remains unknown due to resource limitations.
• Some of the stolen funds moved via Hawala networks and likely ended up with Al-Shabaab—as funds transited through parts of Somalia under its control.
  • Quote:

    “…the fact that it’s happening at all is a serious problem. And we… need to figure out how to make sure that stops.” (25:07, Thorpe)

f. Systemic Issues with Welfare Program Design

• Programs designed with very low oversight, meant to help the needy, but “if you were to design a government program to facilitate fraud, it would probably look a lot like this.” (22:46, Thorpe)
• The COVID-19 crisis exacerbated fraud due to emergency disbursements, and law enforcement is struggling to keep up.

g. Political Deflection

• Democrats often respond by labeling criticism as racist or deflecting attention to Trump, rather than confronting the program failures head-on.
• Quote:

  “The first question is: is it true?... The facts in this case are that it is true. It’s happening.” (27:17, Thorpe)

7. Broader Social Impact and Erosion of Trust

• Historical contrast: Minnesota’s legacy of high social trust (Norwegian roots) now undermined by the abuse of systems by groups not assimilating.
• The resulting loss of social trust puts the sustainability of welfare systems at risk.

8. Ask Me Anything (AMA) Segment

(29:30–end)

• Girdusky answers listener questions on:
  • Progress of U.S. border wall construction and DHS contracts.
  • Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s efforts on constitutional reform and Europe’s populist movement.
  • AI/data center regulation in Florida—praising Governor DeSantis for policies shielding residents from rate hikes (with specifics on proposed and passed legislation).

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Minnesota’s Demographics:

  “There are 54,000 Somali adults living in Minnesota. That means the average Somali adult makes $9,000 a year, according to what you’re putting out there.” (06:44, Girdusky)

• On Fraudulent Food Aid During COVID:

  “...the woman who got [the Refugee of the Year award] that like the year prior was the one who was the ringleader of this program to rob taxpayers.” (20:54, Girdusky)

• On Political Leadership and Fraud:

  "We're talking about more than $1 billion that has been defrauded from taxpayers under his watch in a… handfull of years here. Responsibility is somewhat inescapable for him." (19:33, Thorpe)

• On Deflection and Racial Accusations:

  "They always use racism as a deflection for mass corruption in various pockets of this country." (28:50, Girdusky)

• On Welfare Program Design:

  “If you were to design a government program to facilitate fraud, it would probably look a lot like this one in Minnesota.” (22:46, Thorpe)

Notable Timestamps

• 01:04–05:00: Introduction and Merchant Marines pitch; transition to Minnesota welfare fraud.
• 05:00–15:16: Statistical breakdown and criticism of immigrant group impacts.
• 16:16–29:26: Interview with journalist Ryan Thorpe; in-depth breakdown of fraud, systemic issues, political climate, and responses.
• 29:30–End: Ask Me Anything (AMA) segment on border wall, Italian politics, DeSantis, and consumer protection policy in Florida.

Summary and Takeaways

The episode provides a detailed exposé on Minnesota’s massive welfare fraud, the structural weaknesses that enabled it, and the social and political reluctance to honestly confront negative consequences associated with refugee resettlement and welfare policy. Both host and guest argue for fact-based, open discussions about immigration impacts, stressing transparency, accountability, and reform of government welfare systems to prevent similar large-scale abuses in the future.

Further Reading/Follow the Guest

• Ryan Thorpe’s investigative journalism at: City Journal (29:04)
• Thorpe on ‘X’ (Twitter): @rk_thorpe (29:04)

Tone:
The episode is measured but impassioned, combative about the failures of media and political establishment, and calls for data-driven honesty in immigration and welfare debates.