← The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind New Jersey’s Political Shift
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Ryan Grudosky
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Matt Rooney
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Featuring the iconic journalists of Variety and hosted by co editor in chief Cynthia Littleton.
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Ryan Grudosky
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- [03:15]
Ryan Grudosky
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Grudosky. Happy Monday. We are 36 days until the 2025 elections. I know originally I said today was going to be all about Virginia, but a number of people have reached out to me and they want to talk about New Jersey. A lot of polls have come out that made this race much more interesting. You know, I'm a Northeastern or some kind of really interested in Jersey, so I couldn't wait to do it as well. We will do a deep dive on Virginia next Monday. I already have a guest laid out who knows all things Virginia data and they will have a lot of early votes. We'll have a lot to decipher and go through. I think it'll be very, very exciting. I'm also going to do an episode on Pennsylvania because they have an important election which is completely going under the radar, which everyone should be talking about or at least know a little bit about. All right, before we get into the Garden State, here are some other numbers that I think you all should know and we need to address first, across the pond in the UK the poll polling firm ipsis. They did a poll on the prime Minister and his approval rating. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, he is a member of the Labour Party, the the British version of the Democratic Party. They found that he has a 13 approval rating, a 79 unfavorable rating. Now, not only is this a bad number, it is the worst number of any prime minister ever polled since IPSA started 1980. That includes Liz Truss, the former Tory Conservative prime Minister who lasted only 49 days in the job. This is obviously not a great place to be. And Starmer is reacting by writing an op ed in the Telegraph, which is a pretty prominent British paper, talking about how he's going to issue issue digital ID cards to sit there and crack down on illegal immigrants taking British jobs. He's also talked about the fact that they need to crack down on legal immigration. He knows that immigration is the number one issue for British voters. And there's direct relation to immigration, the cost of living, immigration and the economy. And the economy is the bad spot. They're calling the UK the sick man of the G7 that it is doing horrifically bad in the economy, that the cost of living, the cost of owning a home is enormously high. And the British public are outraged and they are looking for alternatives narratives to the traditional Tory and Labor Party, you know, chance parties that they're not looking for the same parties they've always elected, dating back hundreds of years. In the case of the Tories, a Sunday Times, which is also another British paper, poll predicts that if the election were held today, Reform uk, led by Nigel Farage, is expected to win the election with an astounding 373seats, while the Labor Party would come in second with just 90 seats, and the Tories would have just 40, would be a minority party. Now, imagine had Donald Trump ran under the America Party or a third party or whatnot, and the, and in just, you know, before he even had, you know, first midterm elections or whatever the case may be in the American version or his second election, that the Republicans would be a minority party and the Democrats would be shellacked and losing two thirds of their support. That's what's happening in the uk. All over most Western Europe, we're seeing leaders scramble with declining support and increasing political instability. Leaders in Germany, France, the UK and Spain are all suffering, suffering from declining support. And nationalist party populist parties are just surging across the board. Now, the elections in most of Western Europe aren't happening. There is one election in late October in the Netherlands, but that's, that's, it's interesting and I, I'm going to talk about it, but it's not the most consequential. It's a fairly small country. And also the Netherlands has like 200 political parties and everyone gets a seat and they all squabble about, you know, creating political unions. It's, it's messy. Sometimes it takes months for, for the Netherlands to create a government while everyone tries to find out whose alliance they're on. But it's the Netherlands, so no one really notices anyway. Most Western countries, major Western, Western countries do not have an election until 2027. There's a few smaller countries like Denmark and Sweden and Hungary and Slovenia that have elections, but we're talking the uk, France, Italy, Germany. These big countries, Spain, they, they don't have elections for quite some time. And what these European leaders in Germany and in France with Emmanuel Macron and in the UK with Starmer are hoping for is that they somehow improve the economy and deal with at least illegal immigration in some capacity, maybe deport some criminals so that way these populist parties, like Reform UK, like Marine Le Pen's National Rally, like the AfD in Germany, like Vox in Spain, taper off, support voters, come back to the center and support these traditional left right parties. I don't know if that's going to happen. I don't know if some of these parties will be able to keep the government going before they can collapse. We will see and I will tell you about it. But this is what's brewing in Europe. It is not impossible that we close our eyes, wake up at 2028, 2029, and most of Western Europe is governed by a national populist party and president or prime minister. It is very interesting how things are unfolding. Now back to the United States, specifically three states. Let's talk about Missouri, the Show Me State. This story flew completely under the radar. Republican Governor Mike Kehoe signed a bill creating new congressional lines in Missouri. It will turn the 5th congressional district, which is currently represented by Emmanuel Cleaver, who's held the seat for 20 years, he's a Democrat, into a Republican district. Under the current lines. The district voted for Kamala Harris by a 61 to 37 margin. This new map splits the city of Kansas City into three different districts and turns the district, the fifth Congressional District, which completely encompasses Kansas City right Now, from a Harris +23 seat to a Trump +18 seat. It will likely guarantee that a Republican will win the seat, adding to the Republican delegation next year. The map is likely to end up in some lawsuits, especially given what's going on right now in Louisiana and Alabama with their lawsuits. If the Supreme Court decides to strike down or radically reform Section 2 of the Voting Rights act, which protects minority majority districts throughout the country, though not white majority districts in places that they are a minority, like in California. But if they strike or modify section 2 of the VRA, I think that this map will be okay. I think this map will stay. I think they'll gain this extra seat and Republicans will have one more seat going into the midterms. I go to another state, we talk about redistricting, which is Maryland. Now, when Texas redistricted, a lot of Democratic governors started puffing their chest and saying they were going to do something, and most of them didn't because most of them don't have the power to do anything. Well, one of those who did have the power to do something and could have is the Democratic governor of Maryland named West Moore. Maryland has one Republican Congressional, congressional district, and he was promising to redistrict that into oblivion and make it a Democratic state seat. He has since backed away from that comment and he's giving the, the, he's giving the smoke signals that that will not happen. Why will it not happen? Well, it doesn't do with him. It has to with former Governor Larry Hogan, who was a Republican of Maryland. Now, for the true blue Republican listeners of the show, you may have said Larry Hogan was a rhino. Larry Hogan was terrible. Larry Hogan, you know, didn't like Trump, which is true. He didn't like Trump. However, what Larry Hogan did do, which many blue state Republican governors do not do, is he actually appointed Republicans to the Supreme Court of Maryland. And Maryland Supreme Court is five, two Republican. What Democrats, including Wessmore, are afraid of is not only will a new map be struck down by the Republican majority Supreme Court appointed by Larry Hogan is that they will strike down the current map as well, redraw it and give Republicans not one seat, but two and possibly make a third swing seat in the state. That would be devastating to Republicans. That would be destructive to Westmore. He knows it. He knows he could not run for he's saying he's not running for president. But in case he changes his mind, as politicians are known to do that, if he went to a debate stage and Gavin Newsom said, I gained four Democratic seats, you lost us one or two seats, that would be an absolute KO knockout with Democratic activists. So it doesn't look like Democrats can count on Maryland to add to their delegation in redistricting so far. Maybe he'll change his mind, but it looks like it's he's trying to preempt a move by the Republican Supreme Court in the state. Okay, now here's for the main show for the Garden State, for New Jersey, Jack Chiarelli is continuing to have more news break. In his favor, he received the endorsement of a Democratic mayor named James Dodd of Dover, New Jersey. Now, Dover is not a Republican town. It voted for Harris by 56% and by for Biden in 2020 by 67%. This is the, this isn't the first time that a Democrat mayor has endorsed Ciarelli. The mayor of Garfield, New Jersey endorsed him. But Garf, that was very Democratic back in 2012 and has moved to the right in every subsequent election. And in 2024, Trump won it. So it makes sense that he's trying to align with his voters in a town that is increasingly becoming Republican. That is not the case with Dover. Now, the biggest, the big possibility, the biggest possibility for Citarelli around getting Democratic mayor support Is a meeting he allegedly had two weeks ago with a man named Nicholas Sacco.
- [13:51]
Matt Rooney
He.
- [13:52]
Ryan Grudosky
Sacco has been an elected official from northern Bergen in New Jersey, in northern New Jersey, right outside of New York city for since 1985. Since before I was born, he's been an elected official. He and his team had a meeting with Jack Ciatorelli about an endorsement. Now he's denying this. He's saying he's a Democrat, but he is not endorsing the Democrat, Mickey Sherrill. He's kind of sitting there and staying out of it. He's not. In northern New Jersey, there is a Democrat machine. They go to the projects, they go to apartment building. People have to go vote. They have a complete operation without the local operation support. It absolutely hurts the Democrats. His public team is saying that he has not committed to voting for supporting for a Republican. And he is a Democrat and he's loyal to his party, but he is not endorsing Cheryl. And the meeting definitely happened because there's enough sources to sit there and say that the meeting happened. It's not so much that he loves Cittarelli or is becoming Republican. He is having a feud with another mayor, the Union city, New Jersey mayor, who loves Mickey Sheryl. So, Mikey Sheryl. So that is really where it is. It's just about, you know, Democrat on Democrat violence. It's really about who hates who, who's backing who. And that's really what's causing a lot of chaos in the Democratic party. A lot of inner city Democrats do not like the Democratic nominee. They wanted a minority. They wanted somebody else. They wanted a man. In a lot of cases. Mikey Sheryl comes from a very, very wealthy white area of New Jersey, Montclair. She does not represent their interests. She does not speak their language. And it shows. And a lot of these polls that are showing a jump ball raise are because a lot of minorities, a lot of Kamala Harris voters are not committed to supporting her. I think that that really speaks to a problem the Democrats are having right now in the state and nationwide. Republicans so far in this election for governor are doing a better job at returning ballots than Democrats are. As of Monday, September 29, 4% of all Republicans who have requested mail in ballot have returned them. That's better than the 3.5% for Democrats. Independents lag way behind at 1.8. The difference is now this is is good. This is not cause for great celebration because Democrats have way more ballots out there for mail in voters. Democrats are still very comfortable mail in voters. Republicans have Gotten more comfortable but they are not nearly where The Democrats are. 58% of all mail in ballot applications are from Democrats but they have to return them. Returning your ballot is more important than just receiving it it so Republicans are returning it at a higher rate. That's a great news for the Republican candidate however, Democrats are still going to win the mail in ballot vote. It's not a question, it's just a matter of is there a chance that 5 or 6 or 7 or 8% or 10% or 12% do not return their ballot. They just, they forget gets lost in the mail, they go on vacation, they don't think about it. Last number before I get into a conversation with about New Jersey is a new poll out now. Remember last week we had the Emerson poll had an internal poll showing Chitterelli either tied or ahead. A new poll has come out from the conservative website Save Jersey finding Cheryl with a two point lead over Republican Chittarelli. Basically the margin of error. The poll was conducted by a firm named Valcor. I don't know that firm particularly well. I've never heard of it before. I'm not saying it's a bad one, I'm just not familiar with it. Betting markets still give Cheryl a 70% chance on winning this election. She's still the odds on favorite but trends are moving away from her and Democrats and it' becoming obvious. And Cittarelli has momentum which is what you want more than anything before an election is momentum. People feel like you can win. Polls aren't everything but sometimes they become self fulfilling prophecies. I want to do another Jersey election for a perfect image of this. In 2013, Chris Christie won in a huge landslide against a woman named Barbara Bono. I didn't even have to look up her name. This is how sick my brain is that I remember the losing Democratic campaign from a decade ago. But he won by a huge margin. But the voter turnout was extremely extremely low because polls had sat there and said it's going to be a blowout, don't even worry about going to vote. And Democrats didn't go out and vote. So it helped with Christie's overall number. When polls say this is a tight election, it does ignite the more passionate group to sit there and show up. Which is what helped Donald Trump in 2024 is they said anybody can win. And so you know, somebody who usually could sit there and sleep on the couch is going to sit there and show up and turn out and vote because he said that his guy can win even in a state that's not super red. Even if, say, there's a purple or a blue state, they were like you. We could, we could have a complete upset. There's, you know, opportunities abound. That's what's happening in these polls. So with me this week is someone who I'm very interested in. He knows all things New Jersey, the land that gave us John Bon Jovi, Whitney Houston and Tony Soprano. He is coming up next.
- [19:29]
Matt Rooney
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Matt Rooney
Where do you see the business actually heading?
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Variety Podcast Host
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- [20:21]
Ryan Grudosky
The only constant in Hollywood is change.
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- [22:37]
Ryan Grudosky
Matt Rooney is the host of the Matt Rooney show and founder of SaveJersey.com Matt, thanks for being here.
- [22:42]
Matt Rooney
Appreciate you having me. Ryan, Good to talk to you.
- [22:44]
Ryan Grudosky
Now Matt, I feel like I started reading you in 2013 with Christie's reelect. Have you been writing for that long? Am I like going crazy?
- [22:54]
Matt Rooney
It's worse than that actually. 2008 law student at Rutgers University and naturally I I didn't want to hang out with my commie classmates 247 as much as I love some of them, they're nice people but their ideas are out in left field. So instead of hitting the books as I probably should have, I I started save jersey.com partially and you could appreciate this Ryan as event it was cathartic to write about all the garbage going on in my home state but lo and behold people started reading it and we've been around ever since.
- [23:27]
Ryan Grudosky
Do you know this is how weird my brain works. I remember you venting in 2013 that Christie did not do enough to support candidates running for the state legislature and there was only one pickup in the whole state legislature the year Christie had that blowout Reelect But I remember you venting and I was really learning. I mean it was 2013 so a while ago I was in my early 20s but I was really like learning about different ways that how blue state Republican governors sometimes work with the legislatures like Larry Hogan and and the Republican governor of Vermont does and then how some make it about about themselves and so like Schwarzenegger or Christie. But anyway I learned that education from Save Jersey. That's how long I have been reading that website. So you guys have a poll out today. Breaking news what does the poll say about the race for governor?
- [24:21]
Matt Rooney
The poll says that Jack can win. Which you, being someone that follows blue state Republican politics very closely, is very much the first obstacle we have to overcome in a place like Jersey if we ever want to be successful. People just don't believe they can do it, that it's, that it's worth it. It's easier to move to Florida, South Carolina, wherever else where we all agree the weather is better. But the pizza, with all due respect, tastes like ketchup on a cracker. So we prefer, we'd prefer to stay in the pizza belt up here. So what this poll really tells us, Ryan, is that the Jack is there. Mikey Sheryl's at 47% with a universe of almost 1300 likely voters. Jack's at 45%. It very much felt when I was looking at this as if I was evaluating a Trump Clinton 2016 poll. You have almost in some ways kind of the de facto incumbent, Cheryl, because we're talking about a Democrat whose state party has an 850,000 registrant advantage statewide, but unable to get the 50% and jack right there and winning just about every issue. If you look at the top lines, whether it be crime, utility bill increases, no one is buying what Mikey Sherrill is selling. And that was before the Naval Academy scandal broke. This poll came out of the field about 24 hours before we learned all of that. So if you're gonna take one thing away from this survey we conducted, it's that, yeah, your vote, your vote matters in New Jersey this year, we could actually win.
- [26:00]
Ryan Grudosky
And it's the third poll almost consecutively. Say it's a jump all race. There was another poll by a nonprofit. And I, I said, I'm not, I'm not a polling truther, but if I don't know the polling institution, I make a claim. I don't know this institution that's doing this poll. And they dm, they texted me, they tweeted me, they were like, we'll show you our cross steps. We'll show you our methodology. And I said, okay, my DMs are open, send them to me. Never got, I'm like, so still going to be a polling truth about that one. But among Emerson, among the internals that Cittarelli put out, which was done by a very, very well respected within New Jersey pollster. And this poll, I don't know this pollster, by the way, that did your poll, but I'm going to trust you because you've been in this for A while. What the thing that is interesting about of those three polls I didn't read to the crosshairs of your poll, I just read the top lines was that Chitterell, what separates those two polls from all other is Chittarelli is dominating among independents. Is that the same in your poll?
- [27:01]
Matt Rooney
Yeah, he's up with independents. But you know, arguably even more significantly, the thing that made me nearly fall out of my chair, he's got about 30% of the urban vote, which for those of you that follow New Jersey, or if you're just tuning in for the first time, part of the reason why New Jersey has been tough to flip traditionally is that i95 corridor, the part you see on the intro to the Sopranos. The rest of the state's acting quite lush and green. Ryan will back me up on this. But, but, but that's really what it is, you know, Elizabeth Patterson, Hudson and Essex County. But Trump really broke into that Democrat blue firewall last year. I mean, he won NJ9. That's the congressional district that has Patterson at the heart of it so early.
- [27:51]
Ryan Grudosky
I would love, I would have loved to been a fly on the wall in New Jersey Democratic circles when that, when Nellie pose district, I mean, she barely won. But they drew that to be a super safe, impossible to win democracy and Trump won it by two points. I would have just loved to see what they look like when that happens.
- [28:11]
Matt Rooney
It did not go according to plan. That's the nice way to put it. Right. And we know that she, she's an empty suit. She's out there last week taking credit for votes she didn't even take. She was touring MetLife Stadium talking about all the funds are going to be brought in for security for the World cup next year. She voted against the bill. So there's a lot of buyers regret right now across the board in Democrat politics because Nelly's weak. They're very worried about that. Last year the NRCC is already running digital ads in that district. And then of course, in the gubernatorial race, Mikey Sherrill, I used to call her Kamala of the East Coast. I'm starting to think it is unfair to Kamala because Kamala, at least occasionally could, I don't know, maybe borrow some of the vitamins they used to inject into Biden and sound halfway coherent. Cheryl's not there on a good day.
- [29:04]
Ryan Grudosky
And Trump won Pasea county, which is extremely important, which is has a heavy Latino population as well. And we saw that in a number of pockets. Now, I had a few quick questions to Ask you so what is the first Chitterli ran in 2021 and did surprisingly well. I was in a doing a city council race in New York which we won. And they said how they said Chitterelli's, you know, tied and it was like 11pm And I go, no, there's no way. I wasn't even looking at the jersey. I go, there can't be. And I look at, I go, holy cow. What is he doing differently this time that is better? Is it just that he's not against an incumbent or is there is he does. Is he doing something differently that is more that is working his benefit?
- [29:49]
Matt Rooney
Well, I think some of it, as much as I want to give him credit, is doing some things better. Some of it's just environmental at this point. You've had eight years of Phil Murphy. He's relatively unpopular in most polling. We didn't, we didn't poll him in this survey. I'm kind of having regret about that that because many surveys are coming back showing him with actually a worse net approval rating than governor than President Trump in New Jersey, which again is kind of remarkable when you think about the state that we're talking about. This is a state that hasn't voted Republican for president since 1988. But now you've got someone who is running on Phil Murphy's record. She's not interested in changing anything. We kind of got a Kamala esque answer from her when she was asked what she wanted to do differently. I think she gave Phil Murphy a B plus when asked at one of the Democrat debates for what rating she would give him.
- [30:45]
Ryan Grudosky
I think people, that's what Obama gave himself. Do you remember that? And Obama was like, I'm a solid B plus president.
- [30:53]
Matt Rooney
A solid B plus president. Yeah. Well, although in fairness, when my wife has asked me, I've said I'm a solid B plus husband. I've kind of recycled that answer on occasion.
- [31:05]
Ryan Grudosky
What, what, what is going so what is very un. It's not. New Jersey is not alone in this, but New Jersey does the best. I give New Jersey a big piece of credit besides the fact you don't have to pump your own gas, which is a great thing.
- [31:20]
Matt Rooney
New Jersey now Oregon threw in the towel.
- [31:22]
Ryan Grudosky
Quitters. I know the what is what is great about New Jersey is you do solid monthly reporting on voting data. Unlike New York and California and other places which take forever. New Jersey is one of the blue states that does it. Every month they show you how many new registered Republicans and Democrats countywide congressional district State assembly district, New Jersey went from having 1.1 million Democrats advantage, 1.1 million Democratic advantage in 2020 to having 850,000 now. Republicans have netted 200,000 votes between what Democrats have lost, more Republicans have gained and it's been fairly organic. There is not really a Jersey Republican machine. It's not philosophical, you know what I mean? Not in close what is going on? And by the way, and that was during COVID when a lot of Republicans were leaving Jersey for a freer state. So what is going on on the ground in a place like New Jersey which are getting either independents or Democrats or just 18 year olds to register Republican?
- [32:24]
Matt Rooney
Yeah, look, it's a very good point. It's one I've made to many friends outside of New Jersey in recent weeks. Scott Pressler, Cliff Maloney, these famous Republican ballot chasers, they're here now, but they've only been here for months, not for years. Jack Cittarelli came within 3 points in 21. Trump came under 6 points in 2024 with no infrastructure. And I think the simple answer is twofold. One, as I was talking about before, we've seen a preview of where the left is going nationally for a while now and we don't love it. I always like to say a little crass, I apologize, but it doesn't matter who gets to pee in which bathroom. If no one can afford to live here, their priorities are whacked out. And with our utility bills jumping, highest property taxes in the nation, I think perhaps here there's fatigue with that messaging. First, also, we're a very diverse state relative to a lot of the other states in the union and certainly some of the purple and red states like in Ohio know we have a lot of Hispanic voters here. There's a lot of black male voters. There's a lot of young New Jerseyans that don't necessarily vote the same way as their parents or their grandparents. So for the longest time, these kind of woke affluent suburbs in places like Morris county have helped Democrats remain strong here. But if, you know, all of a sudden a Republican like Jack Cittarelli starts getting 30% of the urban vote because these voters don't recognize their values or their priorities. And what they're hearing from someone like Mikey Sherrill, they're not just in trouble, they're arguably doomed. We used to hear when you and I were a little younger demographics or destiny for an argument as to why Republicans were eventually going to go the way of the dinosaur that's now completely flipped. And you may Be seeing it most acutely here in New Jersey.
- [34:15]
Ryan Grudosky
Yeah, Mikey Sherrill was really bad in the Democratic primary in the urban vote. The urban Democrat minority Democrats specifically did not want her. She lives, I think, in a community where I think the average income is $160,000 per person. It's an incredibly white area.
- [34:32]
Matt Rooney
They don't go to church in Montclair. They go to Drag Queen Story Hour, their secular ritual. And it illustrates very much Ryan. Like, that's the bubble that she occupies. And I think everyone outside of that bubble in New Jersey is starting to wake up.
- [34:50]
Ryan Grudosky
What does it say that two Democratic mayors now have endorsed her? And there was allegedly, and I know you guys talked about it on Safe Jersey. The meeting with Nick Sako is how you pronounce the last name. There was a legendary meeting. He's denying it, but there was a meeting he does not like. The Union City Democratic mayor who loves Cheryl. What does it say that some Democratic mayors are willing to throw their hat in behind Chitterelli?
- [35:18]
Matt Rooney
Well, I mean, all the way back to the beginning of our convo of 2013, even 2009, when Chris Christie was coming on strong, that's what you began to see. All across New Jersey, the Democrat bosses began to split from the progressive base. Because at the end of the day, these guys, they don't really believe in anything. They're transactional. So in order to maintain troll of the street, they don't want to go in a complete opposite direction of it. So if they're hearing, as we're hearing, and we're seeing in certain data, including in our poll, that black voters, Hispanic voters, are saying, you know, we're not picking up what Mikey Sheryl's putting down. I wouldn't be surprised if you see a few more Democrat mayors before the end of this cycle. Say, you know what? We're gonna make a deal with Jack. We're gonna join up with the Republicans at least this time around, and signal our independence. And that's particularly bad news for her because, let's face it, we have to pull Republicans out of the House to get him to vote early. Right. It's getting a little bit easier, but it's still not hard. These old crusty again, they look like extras from the Sopranos party bosses up North Worth. They know how to get it done. They go door to door. They've got lists. She can't win without them.
- [36:33]
Ryan Grudosky
Right. The Democratic Party machine is no joke, especially in the case of Saco in that city. Now, pedaling back from the. There's not just the governor's race, which is obviously the most important, the most paid attention to, especially with all this momentum behind Cittarelli. The legislature is up for a vote, and Republicans made immense gains, I think, four years ago, and then they lost their gains two years ago in the state. Now they have it up again. Is there any chance for Republicans to gain in the state legislature this time?
- [37:05]
Matt Rooney
Yeah, there is. And, you know, significantly enough, Cittarelli, even though he lost by three points last time, to your point, had those tremendous coattails in 2021. We picked up a bunch of seats in South Jersey. I think we could do it again. I'll give you one very clear example, the third legislative district, which is deep South Jack Jersey. So deep that you actually will get a Southern accent occasionally.
- [37:29]
Ryan Grudosky
I don't know about. I don't know about that one, man. You.
- [37:33]
Matt Rooney
Look, next time you visit, we have a rodeo. It's called the Cowtown Rodeo in LD3. And I took a friend there from Montana, and he said it was legitimate. So.
- [37:41]
Ryan Grudosky
Okay, I will make.
- [37:43]
Matt Rooney
I'll make a believer of you. That's a 7.5% Trump district. It's currently represented by an entirely Democrat legislative delegation. So if Jack wins by what he should, I think you could see Republicans pick up anywhere between a few seats to as many as nine or even 10 seats in the Assembly. Unfortunately, the state Senate's not up this year. They won't be on the ballot again until 27. That may be one of the only silver linings for Democrats right now because it might stave off a potentially larger catastrophe if Jack really does run up the number. So I would. I'll tell you this much. If you're. If you're listening to Ryan's podcast and you want a viewer guide for election night New Jersey, two counties in particular, you got to keep your eye on Bergen and Gloucester. Gloucester has pieces of three, which I just mentioned in four, which I want to say is like a Harris plus one or two district baked into it.
- [38:44]
Ryan Grudosky
That's in South Jersey, for those who don't know. But Gloucester's in South Jersey.
- [38:47]
Matt Rooney
It's in South Jersey, not far from Philly. It's traditionally been a purple county, but it's moving to the right. I think Jack won it by like 10 points last time, so watch that. Also, Bergen. Bergen got pretty blue because of the suburban shift in the early part of the Trump error, but it is now swinging back. Trump actually performed pretty strongly there in 2024. This is the most populous county in New Jersey. Classic New York suburb. Watch that county. If Jack is closer, wins Bergen county on election night, he's going to succeed. And there are maybe about four assembly seats that he can win in that county alone, 38 and 36.
- [39:30]
Ryan Grudosky
You know, Matt is not in your writing anyway, though. This is the first time I've ever spoken. You are not an optimist. So you are coming off this is all this. You are. I feel like you feel like there's a lot going in favor of the Republicans right now in New Jersey.
- [39:44]
Matt Rooney
What I always like to say, my friend, is I'm a hyper realist. Right. We, we. If you are working in a state like New Jersey, you have to proceed sometimes in the absence of hope because we don't.
- [39:57]
Ryan Grudosky
Right.
- [39:57]
Matt Rooney
I understand.
- [39:58]
Ryan Grudosky
I relate completely. I'm from New York. I get it.
- [40:00]
Matt Rooney
Yeah, you, you, you get. It's one of the reasons we get along famously now because it's, we have a similar mindset, similar worldview. At look, at the end of the day, I am optimistic this year because of what I can see with my eyes. Disregard the glasses for a second because I can see well enough with them. This Trump coalition that came together over the course of nearly a decade now, the fear has been that it's only going to stand with the president, that it's not going to translate to anyone else. What we suspect we're seeing here in New Jersey, we got a lot of evidence to back it up, is that, no, it is something that is part of a sustainable realignment. Now, of course, it's up to Republican candidates to make sure they continue to earn those votes. It's not something that's a birthright that's going to get handed down as a matter of right. But Jack has hit the right notes. Republicans this year running strong in New Jersey, and there's all the evidence that they are going to put some semblance of that Trump coalition together this November. And as I'm always telling my friends in Pennsylvania, New York, everywhere else, if New Jersey's purple, some of these other purple states are never going to be anything but red again.
- [41:07]
Ryan Grudosky
Well, the slogan people are saying is Pennsylvania is the new Ohio and New Jersey is the new Pennsylvania. My last question is looking at 2021 and 2024, Cittarelli did significantly better than Trump in western New Jersey. In southern New Jersey and in like more of the affluent suburbs, Trump did better among minorities and among the Orthodox Jewish vote. There's a large Orthodox Jewish vote In Lakewood, N.J. lakewood has a Democratic state House member, even though it is a super Republican area because he's an orthodox Jew. Do Republicans have a chance both at winning back that state House seat and two, how are the Orthodox Jews? Because they split their vote last time even though that Chitorelli won it. They were not as I think Trump won the Orthodox Jewish by plus 77 and chitter like plus 30. Is it more? That's a big population. Is there more of a chance of Chitterelli getting some support?
- [42:04]
Matt Rooney
Oh, it's massive. I think the next time we draw the districts, they're probably going to have their own legislative district, which is really, it's really remarkable. I think there's a good chance that Jack is going to get them. Phil Murphy, for as much as I like to make fun of the guy and criticize the guy because he deserves every little bit of it, he's a shrewd politician. Nobody would accuse him of being stupid. He cut the right deals. And the leaders of that particular community, again, like many, many bosses in New Jersey politics tend to be transactional. Part of the reason why there's now a Democrat there is not because the guy is super far left. It's because they couldn't break in and get their own Republican seats. They decided to make a deal with somebody that would give them one. So the way you win out there is by not trying to win the Republican primary, it's by becoming a Democrat. But I think Jack is going to do very well and I think that we could get to a point on election night Ryan where he, if he really does run away with this thing and opens it up and by New Jersey standards, that would be Jack winning by a few points statewide. Flected down ballot in a red place like Ocean county, the margin might just get so wide that some wacky things start to happen, including a Republican regaining his seat when otherwise because of all the deals that been made down ballot, you might not really have a chance of recapturing that Lakewood stage seat.
- [43:28]
Ryan Grudosky
Well and I also think because they won it in 2023 when turnout was much lower, but except for the Jewish community, their turnout was very, very high. So I'm hopeful that because, you know, Joe Schmo, who doesn't usually vote, goes to vote for Jack, he'll vote down a Republican and they'll win that seat. I'm, I'm curious about it. Where can people go to read more of the great Matt Rooney and all things New Jersey?
- [43:49]
Matt Rooney
The great Matt Rooney, I did not pay him to say that. So you check me out on X. Of course Matt Rooney, NJ and then of course, you can visit savejersey.com that's where I post all my rantings and ramblings. And obviously we're going to continue to analyze the data and provide plenty of commentary now through November. It's going to be exciting. That's the one thing we can guarantee. And if it goes the way that I really do believe it can go here. Ryan, stay tuned. Don't tune, turn away or tune out after November 4th. Because if New Jersey has an America first governor, can you imagine the left is freaking out?
- [44:26]
Ryan Grudosky
Well, if New Jersey, if, I mean, Trump lost New Jersey by about 6. If, if new Jersey is a swing state, I mean, the whole country changes. I mean, it really does change. And of all the states, aside from, like, when was the last time, like a true blue state became a swing state? I mean, a lot of swing states have become red states and a few red states have become blue states. But I the last, like true blue red state is hard to think of that became a, I mean, you have to go back to the 90s, I think. So it's a big, big, big change. Big deal.
- [45:00]
Matt Rooney
It's a big deal. And it's also a huge deal for the midterms. I keep reminding everyone of their history before Newt Gingrich's Republican revolution. It was preceded in 93 by a victory in New Jersey, the Tea party revolution of 2010, 2009, a year before Chris Christie upset John Corzine in flipped New Jersey. So it's not just about the larger picture. It's also about 2026. If the Republicans are successful in my home state this year, this whole blue wave backlash against the tyrant Trump narrative they're trying to run with, it evaporates.
- [45:39]
Ryan Grudosky
Well, Matt, thanks for coming on this podcast. I appreciate it.
- [45:42]
Matt Rooney
Thanks for having me, sir.
- [45:43]
Ryan Grudosky
Hey, we'll be right back after this.
- [45:47]
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Ryan Grudosky
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- [48:54]
Ryan Grudosky
Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, please email me ryanumbers game podcast.com that's ryanumbers plural numbers game podcast.com I love your emails. I get them all. I've been reading a lot about my mom's interview about the 911 surviving 9 11. I'm going to pass them along to her. Such nice comments. I genuinely appreciate it. But if you have any show ideas or questions you want me to answer on the show, I'm here for it. I'm down for it. Okay, first question. Hey, Ryan, my name is Robby. I've actually bumped into you a few times about a decade and a half ago back in New York. I live in northeastern Pennsylvania. It's hell. Sorry, Robbie. I like northeastern Pennsylvania, but I've never lived there. I was inspired to get involved in my first campaign in 2024 for Trump and a few other candidates. My top issue is immigration. Immigration, immigration, crime and inflation. I've been avid follower for 15 years and listen to you everywhere. I'm excited about your video for the podcast. Is there any chance that you can make ask me anything into a sort of two way? No, because I don't tape at the same time every week, so I'd have to make sure that everyone knew what time I was taping. It's not a f thing. I don't know the technology either. It would just be very, very difficult. I'll probably just read your answers and maybe publish like a little snippet. But I'm not gonna. I can't do that. It's just the technology has passed me. My schedule is too crazy. I'm actually not paid to be Ryan Graduski. I don't just do personality stuff. I do. I have a company and I work. So I. It's very difficult. I have to work around guest time. It's just. That's a little impossible for me right now. Maybe if the show really takes off and all I do is the show that we can make that happen. But it's not, not capable right now. My reason for this email is if you could do an episode or two on political violence. I think I did one. You probably sent it before this, the podcast and bring on Ann Coulter to share her own past experiences and has been my number one favorite for many years. Maybe you two could do a podcast and then a little tour together. I would love to have another episode with Ann on. I have to reach out to her. This is a great idea. I think we could really speak to like, like left wing violence. I had Ann on the very beginning of the show on like the first episode. As far as like a live event, it's my. That's my big ambition one day do a live event with this podcast. I just need to Boost the numbers up to make sure that people will show up. And I'm not speaking to an empty room. Not like I'm not doing that right now, but to have people to listen to me. So tell your friends and family and like and subscribe to this podcast and maybe that will happen. But thank you, Robbie. Okay, last question for this episode. Hi Ryan, I just listened to your 911 episode. Your mom, thank you for sharing her story. 911 becomes more abstract even for many of us. So it was good to hear personal perspective. Thank you for that comment. By the way, this reader's name is Stephanie. Thank you, Stephanie. I love your podcast. I learn a lot each episode. Thank you for bringing data. I would be interested in data about interracial marriage. In what parts of the country is interracial marriage rate highest, lowest? How does it differ across socioeconomic classes? How does it differ across races? Which immigrant groups are more or less likely to marry outside their race and hasn't gone up or down since blm? Stephanie, that is a great question I've never really thought about before. Let me. I did crunch some data, so let me get it for you. It's a little difficult to answer because Latinos, for example, or Arabs are not a race, they are an ethnic group. So they. It's not a perfect way to dissect, decipher this. It's kind of a little, a little messy. And marriage data is not like birth data where we publish it constantly in the CDC or in the. Yeah, in the cdc every year. And the scale of what is considered a white person changes pretty dramatically with over time. Like, you know, 100 years ago, Italians and Irish weren't classified as white, and now Armenians and Georgians are. So working with what I had at my availability, the number one group, I actually did not know. I didn't know this, but I didn't. I didn't put this in my head for some reason. This comes from 2015 Pew Research data, so it's a little dated. But the number one group for interracial marriage, and it is by far the highest, is actually Asians. Asian Americans. 46% of all Asian Americans who are born in the US marry outside their race. It is wide scale. The farthest, highest, the second would be Latinos. Latinos are at 27%. So which is very high. One in four, with 40% of those being Hispanics who marry whites. Anyway, that is the, that's the number one. And number two, it's Asians and then Hispanics. And you asked about immigrant group, obviously then It's Asian because Asians have are fairly new immigrant group in the long history of our country. And by the second generation, a lot of them marry outside of their race with Asian women being the highest among all groups at 37% percent of all Asian women. Among Asian women born in America, it's over 50%. As far as which area it is in the west that the state with that is the number one interracial marriage is actually Hawaii. Something else I did not know. And they said overall the west coast has the highest amount when it comes to socioeconomic class. I would guess, and this is a guess because the data didn't say this, but if it's Asian Americans who have the highest level of college degree holders, it's probably higher income people with higher college degree levels. Once again, that's a guess, but that is probably which one it is. And as far as going up or down, the data is all pre blm. So I don't have any new data to give to you. It's not like the government reports every year along with, you know, other information. So that's the, that's the info, Stephanie, on interracial marriage. I hope you find it interesting. I found it interesting researching it. Even there are questions that I don't, I don't, I'm not super passionate about. I, I find interesting doing this research. So that's a great question, Stephanie. Thank you for sending it to me. I appreciate you listening and I appreciate you all listening. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast and I will talk to you guys on Thursday.
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Ryan Grudosky
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- [58:30]
Ryan Grudosky
This is an I heart podcast.