The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind New Jersey’s Political Shift
Date: September 29, 2025
Host: Ryan Grudusky (sub-hosting; main podcast by Clay Travis & Buck Sexton)
Guest: Matt Rooney, host of "The Matt Rooney Show" and founder of SaveJersey.com

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the changing political landscape in New Jersey as the state approaches election day. Ryan Grudusky, hosting his "Numbers Game" segment, analyzes new polling data, voter trends, demographic shifts, and the broader context of political movements in both the US and Europe. Special guest Matt Rooney joins to interpret recent polling, discuss campaign dynamics, and explore whether Republicans really have a chance to flip New Jersey’s governorship and legislative seats.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Political Instability and Populist Momentum in Western Europe

Timestamps: 03:15 – 06:54

• Ryan opens the show with an international context, noting a crisis of confidence in Western European governments.
• UK PM Keir Starmer’s approval "the worst...ever polled since IPSA started in 1980" at 13%, says Ryan. ([04:00])
  • Leaders in Germany, France, UK, and Spain are suffering similar dips.
  • Populist parties (e.g., Reform UK, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally) are surging.

Quote:

"It is not impossible that we close our eyes, wake up at 2028, 2029, and most of Western Europe is governed by a national populist party and president or prime minister. It is very interesting how things are unfolding." — Ryan Grudusky ([06:48])

2. US Redistricting and Congressional Impacts

Timestamps: 06:54 – 09:54

• Missouri: New congressional map will flip a Democratic seat (Emmanuel Cleaver's district) solidly Republican—shifts from Harris +23 to Trump +18. Map may face lawsuits.
• Maryland: Despite talk, Democrats won't attempt a “hard” gerrymander against the sole GOP seat, due to Larry Hogan's Republican-packed state Supreme Court.

Quote:

"Democrats...are afraid […] that they will strike down the current map as well, redraw it and give Republicans not one seat, but two and possibly make a third swing seat in the state. That would be devastating." — Ryan Grudusky ([09:22])

3. New Jersey’s Shifting Landscape

Timestamps: 09:54 – 44:26

Democratic Mayors Endorsing GOP Candidate Jack Ciattarelli

• Notable endorsements from Democratic mayors in traditionally Democratic towns (e.g., James Dodd of Dover, Garfield’s mayor).
• Tension and fragmentation within the Democratic Party, especially in urban/ethnic bases dissatisfied with the nomination of Mikie Sherrill (from wealthy, suburban Montclair).

Quote:

"A lot of inner-city Democrats do not like the Democratic nominee. They wanted a minority. They wanted…a man. Mikey Sherrill comes from a very, very wealthy white area...She does not represent their interests. She does not speak their language. And it shows." — Ryan Grudusky ([14:53])

Mail-In Ballot Returns: GOP Outpacing Dems in Return Rate

• 4% of GOP-requested mail ballots returned, outpacing Democrats at 3.5%, but Dems still have far more mail-in voters.
• Significance: Republicans more energized and organized, but Dems maintain numerical edge.

Recent Polls: Neck-and-Neck Governor’s Race

Timestamps: 17:56 – 24:20

• New Save Jersey/Valcor poll: Sherrill leads Ciattarelli by just 2 points (47–45)—inside margin of error.
• Betting markets: Sherrill favored but momentum with Ciattarelli.
• Emphasized historical impact of close polls on turnout enthusiasm.

Quote:

"Cittarelli has momentum, which is what you want more than anything before an election. People feel like you can win...It's a self-fulfilling prophecy." — Ryan Grudusky ([18:33])

Interview: Matt Rooney of SaveJersey.com

Timestamps: 22:36 – 45:39

Matt Rooney’s Background & Polling Toplines

Timestamps: 22:36 – 27:00

• Rooney: Started SaveJersey.com in 2008 for catharsis against "all the garbage going on in my home state."
• New polling: Sherrill 47%, Ciattarelli 45% (“Jack is there”), with nearly 1,300 likely voters.
  • Republicans "winning just about every issue" (crime, utilities, etc.).
  • Poll completed before "Naval Academy scandal broke".

Quote:

"The poll says that Jack can win. Which...is very much the first obstacle we have to overcome in a place like Jersey if we ever want to be successful. People just don't believe they can do it, that it's, that it's worth it." — Matt Rooney ([24:20])

GOP Gains Among Independents, Urban & Minority Voters

Timestamps: 27:00 – 32:24

• Ciattarelli dominating independence; "about 30% of the urban vote" (remarkable for NJ).
• Trump “broke into that Democrat blue firewall last year,” even winning NJ9 (Paterson-centered).
• Shifting demographics: More Hispanic, Black, and young New Jerseyans registering GOP or switching allegiances.
  • Democrats' “woke suburban” gains waning; values out-of-sync with working class and minorities.

Quote:

"We used to hear when you and I were a little younger demographics or destiny for an argument as to why Republicans were eventually going to go the way of the dinosaur that's now completely flipped. And you may be seeing it most acutely here in New Jersey." — Matt Rooney ([33:38])

Democratic Party Machine Fraying

• Some Democratic bosses/mayors looking to endorse or defect for self-preservation as base fragments (“they're transactional”).
• Without machine support, Sherrill at a "significant disadvantage," especially in turnout operations in urban North Jersey.

Quote:

"They're transactional. So in order to maintain control of the street, they don't want to go in a complete opposite direction of it...I wouldn't be surprised if you see a few more Democrat mayors before the end of this cycle." — Matt Rooney ([35:17])

Outlook on Legislative Races & Key Counties

Timestamps: 36:32 – 39:29

• Republicans could pick up “a few to as many as nine or even 10 seats in the Assembly.”
• State Senate not up until 2027.
• Counties to Watch:
  • Bergen: “If Jack is closer, wins Bergen county on election night, he's going to succeed."
  • Gloucester: “Traditionally a purple county, but it's moving to the right.”

Sustained GOP Momentum and the Trump Coalition

Timestamps: 39:29 – 41:06

• Rooney, characteristically a “hyper-realist,” now optimistic: Trump’s coalition seems to be “a sustainable realignment,” not just tied to Trump.
• If New Jersey is "purple," other traditional purple states may become reliably red.

Quote:

“If New Jersey's purple, some of these other purple states are never going to be anything but red again.” — Matt Rooney ([41:06])

The Orthodox Jewish Vote and Legislative Niche Politics

Timestamps: 41:06 – 43:27

• The Orthodox community in Lakewood, NJ, pivotal in elections; highly transactional, often securing deals for local legislative seats.
• High turnout can produce "wacky" down-ballot results; expect GOP gains if Ciattarelli wins big.

Context & Historical Significance

Timestamps: 44:26 – 45:00

• If New Jersey flips, would be a tectonic shift: “When was the last time, like, a true blue state became a swing state?” — Ryan Grudusky
• Historical pattern: GOP waves in Congress have often been preceded by victories in NJ governor’s races (e.g., 1993, 2009).

Quote:

"It's also a huge deal for the midterms. I keep reminding everyone...before Newt Gingrich's Republican revolution, it was preceded in '93 by a victory in New Jersey, the Tea Party revolution of 2010, 2009, a year before Chris Christie upset John Corzine and flipped New Jersey." — Matt Rooney ([45:00])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Your vote matters in New Jersey this year, we could actually win."
  — Matt Rooney ([24:20])

• "A lot of these polls that are showing a jump ball raise are because a lot of minorities...are not committed to [Mikie Sherrill]. I think that speaks to a problem the Democrats are having right now in the state and nationwide."
  — Ryan Grudusky ([15:13])

• "This Trump coalition that came together over the course of nearly a decade now...what we suspect we’re seeing here in New Jersey...is that it is something that is part of a sustainable realignment."
  — Matt Rooney ([40:00])

• "If New Jersey is a swing state, I mean, the whole country changes. I mean, it really does change."
  — Ryan Grudusky ([44:26])

Important Segments & Timestamps

• European populists & Survey Data (03:15 – 06:54)
• Missouri & Maryland Redistricting (06:54 – 09:54)
• New Jersey Mayoral Endorsements, Machine Politics, and Dem Fractures (09:54 – 14:53)
• Mail-in ballot data & Polling trends (14:53 – 22:36)
• Interview with Matt Rooney (22:36 – 45:39)
  • Rooney’s polling and analysis (24:20, 27:00, 33:38)
  • County-by-county strategies & Legislative odds (38:46)
  • GOP coalition strength & demographic shifts (40:00)
• Historical context, why NJ matters for the nation (44:26 – 45:00)

Language and Tone

• Conversational, fast-paced, data-driven, and laced with political wit and regional color.
• Both Grudusky and Rooney are blunt, occasionally self-deprecating, but optimistic about GOP fortunes given the data.
• Frequent references to Sopranos, local culture (“pizza belt”, Orthodox Jewish politics, pumping gas in NJ), and inside-baseball political maneuvers.

Final Thoughts

• New Jersey, historically deep blue, is genuinely in play for Republicans due to demographic shifts, urban/minority discontent with Democratic leadership, and collapsing party machines.
• The Ciattarelli–Sherrill race is tight, with GOP showing unprecedented momentum in voter registration, early voting, and cross-party endorsements.
• The underlying story is one of volatility, with New Jersey positioned as both a bellwether and a potential trigger for broader GOP realignments in the northeast and nationwide.

For more pro-NJ data and ongoing coverage, visit SaveJersey.com or follow Matt Rooney (@MattRooneyNJ). Grudusky closes with calls for listener feedback and teases upcoming episodes covering other battleground states.

"If New Jersey has an America First governor, can you imagine? The left is freaking out."
— Matt Rooney ([44:18])