Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind New York City's Mayoral Race
Release Date: June 2, 2025

Introduction to the Episode

It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind New York City's Mayoral Race delves deep into the current dynamics of the New York City mayoral race. Hosted by Ryan Seacrest, the episode features insightful discussions with two key guests: Hank Shenkoff, a veteran Democratic consultant, and Councilwoman Joanne Arreola, the minority leader of the Republican Party in the New York City Council. Together, they analyze the shifting political landscape of NYC, the implications of ranked-choice voting, and the potential outcomes of the upcoming elections.

The Shifting Political Landscape of NYC

Ryan Seacrest opens the discussion by highlighting the significant changes in NYC's political environment over the past decade. He reflects on previous mayors like Giuliani, Bloomberg, and de Blasio, noting how each administration mirrored broader national trends in governance and policy.

"New York City being so heavily Democrat means that it's likely a Democrat will win the mayoral election."
— Ryan Seacrest [Timestamp: 02:12]

Hank Shenkoff adds context by explaining the historical significance of NYC mayoral decisions on national politics, referencing Rudy Giuliani's impact on crime policies post-9/11 and Bloomberg's bipartisan governance.

"New York is the melting pot of the world. Guess what? We're experiencing the same thing."
— Hank Shenkoff [Timestamp: 16:59]

Current Mayoral Race Dynamics

The episode centers on the current mayoral race, featuring 11 candidates within a ranked-choice voting system. Ryan Seacrest outlines the primary contenders:

• Andrew Cuomo: Former Governor seeking a comeback after a resignation in 2021. Initially leading by a significant margin, his lead has since diminished.
• Zoran Mandani: A lesser-known assemblyman running on a progressive platform, focusing on issues like rent control, minimum wage increases, and government-run grocery stores.
• Eric Adams: Current Mayor running as an independent after leaving the Democratic Party.
• Jim Walden: Former Assistant U.S. Attorney, also running as an independent.

"There's such a stupid system that we've adopted, but that's what we have."
— Ryan Seacrest [Timestamp: 19:19]

Hank Shenkoff discusses the challenges of the ranked-choice system, emphasizing how it may benefit candidates with strong support among educated and professional demographics.

"Cuomo is doing better with poorer people who are more minority people, people who are less educated."
— Hank Shenkoff [Timestamp: 15:40]

Demographic Shifts and Voter Behavior

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the changing demographics of NYC and how these shifts influence voting patterns. Hank Shenkoff highlights the increasing influence of Asian communities, particularly Chinese and Korean voters, and the decline of traditional ethnic strongholds like Italian and Jewish communities in certain boroughs.

"If you look at Brooklyn alone, where you have tremendous numbers, I mean, you go to Bensonhurst, where 20 years ago Italians and Jews ruled the roost. Today it is... All the signs on the stores are in Chinese."
— Hank Shenkoff [Timestamp: 19:19]

Ryan Seacrest reflects on the transformation of neighborhoods like Long Island City, noting how gentrification and rising costs have altered the city's socio-economic fabric.

"I grew up in a time where Long Island City was a shanty Irish neighborhood and no one wanted to be there at night. And now you can't afford to live there for a lot of people."
— Ryan Seacrest [Timestamp: 22:14]

The Role of Ranked-Choice Voting

The episode delves into how ranked-choice voting impacts the mayoral race, potentially allowing for multiple Democratic-leaning candidates to split the vote, thereby increasing the chances for a Republican candidate like Curtis Lewa to make significant inroads.

"This means there could be four Democrat leaning candidates... versus a single Republican, Curtis Lewa."
— Ryan Seacrest [Timestamp: 25:41]

Hank Shenkoff expresses skepticism about the system, labeling it as "stupid," but acknowledges its current role in the electoral process.

"Ranked choice voting might say, and again, better educated people will be able to manipulate it more significantly."
— Hank Shenkoff [Timestamp: 15:40]

Electoral Performance and Future Projections

The discussion shifts to the performance of Republicans in recent elections. Ryan Seacrest cites the growth of Republican seats in the NYC Council and Trump's increasing support within the city, rising from 21% in 2016 to 30% in 2024.

"By 2024, his number grew to 30% of the vote in New York City... Republicans are hoping to cut into Democrats' supermajority in the City Council."
— Ryan Seacrest [Timestamp: 24:28]

Hank Shenkoff attributes this shift to the Democratic Party's perceived abandonment of working-class voters and the lack of a cohesive Republican strategy in NYC.

"We don't have a Republican Party because people decided we shouldn't have a Republican Party. And Trumpiness has made that more difficult."
— Hank Shenkoff [Timestamp: 25:48]

Strategies for Republican Gains

Councilwoman Joanne Arreola outlines the Republican Party's focus areas, including the migrant crisis, law and order, and criminal justice reform. She emphasizes targeted outreach to Asian, Hispanic, and African American communities to build a stronger voter base.

"We're focusing on the migrant crisis, working collaboratively with ICE to alleviate that crisis, law and order crime."
— Joanne Arreola [Timestamp: 34:03]

She also highlights the success of Republican candidates in traditionally Democratic strongholds like Queens and Brooklyn, suggesting that a united Republican front could challenge the Democratic dominance effectively.

"Curtis Lewis has been out there for over 30 years. His message has not changed. He wants to set this city right."
— Joanne Arreola [Timestamp: 42:10]

Potential Outcomes and Implications

The episode concludes with a discussion on the feasibility of a Republican mayoral victory in NYC under the current electoral and demographic conditions. Both guests express cautious optimism, emphasizing the importance of consolidating support among disillusioned Democratic voters and effectively countering the progressive wave.

"The only way to make change is to have change at the voting booth."
— Hank Shenkoff [Timestamp: 29:51]

"It is very feasible."
— Joanne Arreola [Timestamp: 40:51]

Closing Thoughts

Ryan Seacrest wraps up the episode by encouraging listeners to engage in the political process and stay informed about the evolving electoral landscape in New York City. He also opens the floor for audience questions, fostering a deeper connection with the listeners.

Notable Quotes

• Ryan Seacrest: "New York City being so heavily Democrat means that it's likely a Democrat will win the mayoral election." [02:12]
• Hank Shenkoff: "Cuomo is doing better with poorer people who are more minority people, people who are less educated." [15:40]
• Joanne Arreola: "We're focusing on the migrant crisis, working collaboratively with ICE to alleviate that crisis, law and order crime." [34:03]
• Joanne Arreola: "Curtis Lewis has been out there for over 30 years. His message has not changed. He wants to set this city right." [42:10]

Conclusion

It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind New York City's Mayoral Race provides a comprehensive analysis of the current political climate in NYC, offering listeners valuable insights into the factors shaping the mayoral race. Through expert opinions and data-driven discussions, the episode highlights the complexities of urban politics and the evolving voter base, making it a must-listen for anyone interested in New York City's future leadership.