It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind New York City's Mayoral Race

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind New York City's Mayoral Race
Release Date: June 2, 2025

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Introduction to the Episode

It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind New York City's Mayoral Race delves deep into the current dynamics of the New York City mayoral race. Hosted by Ryan Seacrest, the episode features insightful discussions with two key guests: Hank Shenkoff, a veteran Democratic consultant, and Councilwoman Joanne Arreola, the minority leader of the Republican Party in the New York City Council. Together, they analyze the shifting political landscape of NYC, the implications of ranked-choice voting, and the potential outcomes of the upcoming elections.

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The Shifting Political Landscape of NYC

Ryan Seacrest opens the discussion by highlighting the significant changes in NYC's political environment over the past decade. He reflects on previous mayors like Giuliani, Bloomberg, and de Blasio, noting how each administration mirrored broader national trends in governance and policy.

"New York City being so heavily Democrat means that it's likely a Democrat will win the mayoral election."
— Ryan Seacrest [Timestamp: 02:12]

Hank Shenkoff adds context by explaining the historical significance of NYC mayoral decisions on national politics, referencing Rudy Giuliani's impact on crime policies post-9/11 and Bloomberg's bipartisan governance.

"New York is the melting pot of the world. Guess what? We're experiencing the same thing."
— Hank Shenkoff [Timestamp: 16:59]

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Current Mayoral Race Dynamics

The episode centers on the current mayoral race, featuring 11 candidates within a ranked-choice voting system. Ryan Seacrest outlines the primary contenders:

• Andrew Cuomo: Former Governor seeking a comeback after a resignation in 2021. Initially leading by a significant margin, his lead has since diminished.
• Zoran Mandani: A lesser-known assemblyman running on a progressive platform, focusing on issues like rent control, minimum wage increases, and government-run grocery stores.
• Eric Adams: Current Mayor running as an independent after leaving the Democratic Party.
• Jim Walden: Former Assistant U.S. Attorney, also running as an independent.

"There's such a stupid system that we've adopted, but that's what we have."
— Ryan Seacrest [Timestamp: 19:19]

Hank Shenkoff discusses the challenges of the ranked-choice system, emphasizing how it may benefit candidates with strong support among educated and professional demographics.

"Cuomo is doing better with poorer people who are more minority people, people who are less educated."
— Hank Shenkoff [Timestamp: 15:40]

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Demographic Shifts and Voter Behavior

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the changing demographics of NYC and how these shifts influence voting patterns. Hank Shenkoff highlights the increasing influence of Asian communities, particularly Chinese and Korean voters, and the decline of traditional ethnic strongholds like Italian and Jewish communities in certain boroughs.

"If you look at Brooklyn alone, where you have tremendous numbers, I mean, you go to Bensonhurst, where 20 years ago Italians and Jews ruled the roost. Today it is... All the signs on the stores are in Chinese."
— Hank Shenkoff [Timestamp: 19:19]

Ryan Seacrest reflects on the transformation of neighborhoods like Long Island City, noting how gentrification and rising costs have altered the city's socio-economic fabric.

"I grew up in a time where Long Island City was a shanty Irish neighborhood and no one wanted to be there at night. And now you can't afford to live there for a lot of people."
— Ryan Seacrest [Timestamp: 22:14]

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The Role of Ranked-Choice Voting

The episode delves into how ranked-choice voting impacts the mayoral race, potentially allowing for multiple Democratic-leaning candidates to split the vote, thereby increasing the chances for a Republican candidate like Curtis Lewa to make significant inroads.

"This means there could be four Democrat leaning candidates... versus a single Republican, Curtis Lewa."
— Ryan Seacrest [Timestamp: 25:41]

Hank Shenkoff expresses skepticism about the system, labeling it as "stupid," but acknowledges its current role in the electoral process.

"Ranked choice voting might say, and again, better educated people will be able to manipulate it more significantly."
— Hank Shenkoff [Timestamp: 15:40]

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Electoral Performance and Future Projections

The discussion shifts to the performance of Republicans in recent elections. Ryan Seacrest cites the growth of Republican seats in the NYC Council and Trump's increasing support within the city, rising from 21% in 2016 to 30% in 2024.

"By 2024, his number grew to 30% of the vote in New York City... Republicans are hoping to cut into Democrats' supermajority in the City Council."
— Ryan Seacrest [Timestamp: 24:28]

Hank Shenkoff attributes this shift to the Democratic Party's perceived abandonment of working-class voters and the lack of a cohesive Republican strategy in NYC.

"We don't have a Republican Party because people decided we shouldn't have a Republican Party. And Trumpiness has made that more difficult."
— Hank Shenkoff [Timestamp: 25:48]

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Strategies for Republican Gains

Councilwoman Joanne Arreola outlines the Republican Party's focus areas, including the migrant crisis, law and order, and criminal justice reform. She emphasizes targeted outreach to Asian, Hispanic, and African American communities to build a stronger voter base.

"We're focusing on the migrant crisis, working collaboratively with ICE to alleviate that crisis, law and order crime."
— Joanne Arreola [Timestamp: 34:03]

She also highlights the success of Republican candidates in traditionally Democratic strongholds like Queens and Brooklyn, suggesting that a united Republican front could challenge the Democratic dominance effectively.

"Curtis Lewis has been out there for over 30 years. His message has not changed. He wants to set this city right."
— Joanne Arreola [Timestamp: 42:10]

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Potential Outcomes and Implications

The episode concludes with a discussion on the feasibility of a Republican mayoral victory in NYC under the current electoral and demographic conditions. Both guests express cautious optimism, emphasizing the importance of consolidating support among disillusioned Democratic voters and effectively countering the progressive wave.

"The only way to make change is to have change at the voting booth."
— Hank Shenkoff [Timestamp: 29:51]

"It is very feasible."
— Joanne Arreola [Timestamp: 40:51]

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Closing Thoughts

Ryan Seacrest wraps up the episode by encouraging listeners to engage in the political process and stay informed about the evolving electoral landscape in New York City. He also opens the floor for audience questions, fostering a deeper connection with the listeners.

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Notable Quotes

• Ryan Seacrest: "New York City being so heavily Democrat means that it's likely a Democrat will win the mayoral election." [02:12]
• Hank Shenkoff: "Cuomo is doing better with poorer people who are more minority people, people who are less educated." [15:40]
• Joanne Arreola: "We're focusing on the migrant crisis, working collaboratively with ICE to alleviate that crisis, law and order crime." [34:03]
• Joanne Arreola: "Curtis Lewis has been out there for over 30 years. His message has not changed. He wants to set this city right." [42:10]

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Conclusion

It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind New York City's Mayoral Race provides a comprehensive analysis of the current political climate in NYC, offering listeners valuable insights into the factors shaping the mayoral race. Through expert opinions and data-driven discussions, the episode highlights the complexities of urban politics and the evolving voter base, making it a must-listen for anyone interested in New York City's future leadership.

Transcript

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Welcome back to A Numbers Game with ryan Gardusky. Episode 31. Thank you all for being here yet again. It is June. Summer is officially here. Half the year is over, which is insane to me. Didn't feel like it's been six months, but we are getting there and it's been a busy week. There were a lot of conferences going on. There was a bitcoin conference over in Vegas that the vice president spoke at. I had a few friends there. My buddy Mike Cernovich was kind of freaking out on Twitter about the future of AI poses to jobs and humanity. And I want to actually get him on the podcast to talk about what he heard and what I want to do a whole AI episode. I think that that would be interesting. If you're interested in an AI episode, let me know in my email. Ryan@NumbersGame podcast.com I think it's. There's a lot of data there that people really would be questioning because you hear a lot of back and forth, whether it's the end of the world or it's really overhyped. And then there was also CPAC Hungary over in Budapest. I have a lot of friends that went there. My buddy Jack Posobec had a great speech on patriotism. It was on his Twitter account. I really, really enjoyed that. I don't go to CPAC anymore, though. I won't go there anymore. I have a problem with the leadership currently under Matchlap. I don't think that he's the right person around the organization, and he seems that it's not always using it for the best purposes. And there are so many stories now at this point and so many accusations of him allegedly forcing himself on men that I don't feel comfortable supporting that kind of organization so long as he's there. And there was a story, there was an allegation as recently as February that I think conservatives should know about before they back an institution supported by him. There's been a lot of things that go on. There's been a lot of stories of people who work there that I've heard about him not being allowed in the same room as certain staffers. And I think that it's a problem. I don't know. I won't participate in any CPAC things, though, going in the future. I used to go all the time, though. I used to love cpac. It was great fun. I saw Congressman Warren Davidson posting a picture he took with Matt Schlapp and Congressman Abe Hamade. And I really wanted to tweet and be like, what happened? You walked into a closet, hang up your code and you found the two of them in there. Allegedly. Allegedly. Anyway, that was what happened this week. But going to June, two big things are happening. Two big elections are happening. They are the primaries for the New York, the New Jersey governor's race and the New York City mayor's election. Now I spent a whole episode on Jersey. I'm going to have another episode on Jersey. I'm going to circle back to it. But I want to focus on my hometown of New York City. I know there's a lot of people who might think, you know, it's too hyper local, but it is the largest city in America and, and the mayor of New York City plays a big part in our national conversation. When Giuliani was mayor and worked in New York, it affected the entire country and how it tackle crime. And Bill Clinton took credit for all that. But then there was also who we were as Americans after 911 in New York. There was Bloomberg, for all of his faults, was a representation of really good bipartisan governance. And he continued a lot of Giuliani's ideas on, especially on crime. And then we got Bill de Blasio and the Progressive Caucus and it was the end of good governance for a lot of people. That's just how I think New York has been reflective of this nation as a whole, where we are politically. And after four years of Eric Adams time in leadership because he's left the party to run as an independent after all the things been going on with him, we have an opening in the Democratic primary now. There'll be two high profile independents on the ticket. This number there'll be current Mayor Eric Adams running as an independent and former Assistant U.S. attorney Jim Walden who is formerly a registered Democrat as well. New York City being so heavily Democrat means that it's likely a Democrat will win the mayoral election. After this primary, there are 11 people running in a ranked choice voting system. This is where voters get a chance to vote for who they want. First, second, third, fourth, you know, et cetera. Some numbers go up, some numbers go down. It's such a stupid system that we've adopted, but that's what we have. The one of the leading contenders for the nomination, of course is former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who had to resign in disgrace in 2021 after a decade in office. Well, he'll be back, you know, he's back again, back from the political dead. And he has a tremendous lead. Early on this election he had a giant lead and it's been getting slimmer and slimmer and slimmer. His primary challenger is a little known assemblyman known as Zoran Mandani. He's an Indian immigrant from Uganda who is running as open socialist. He's campaigning on freezing rent costs, increasing the minimum wage to $30 an hour, free Daycare for children and of course raising taxes on the wealthy. Gotta sneak that in everywhere. And he also wants to take over all the grocery stores in New York City and have them government run because it worked out really great in Venezuela. Assemblyman. That was a joke, by the way. But Assemblyman Mandani has been polling at a distant second, but he's been inching up. And in the last Emerson poll, in the last round of the ranked choice voting, Cuomo has only an eight point lead. In the last round, that's not, I mean it was significantly double digits. So eight points is nice, but it's not where it was, where it should be. Cuomo has the backing of a lot of Latino and black voters in the city, while white voters are split 60, 40 in favor of the Democratic socialists. This is of course according to the Emerson poll. Remember, a lot of white voters in New York outside of Manhattan and the areas on the edging on the deep part of like the borough, out of boroughs, Queens, Brooklyn, Staten island, the Bronx, they are Republicans. So the ones who are left over are very progressive, especially in Manhattan. Manhattan acts almost as a sponge for progressives all around the country who come to move there. Mandani also has a lot of support among young voters under the age of 50, while Cuomo is dominating against older voters and the institutional organizations for Democrats like unions. Now that doesn't mean that Republicans have nothing to gain in this election. They could shock everyone to have an upset victory. New York State has something called a Wilson Pakula. It allows smaller third parties to co endorse candidates from major parties. So the Republican candidate oftentimes will also be endorsed by the Conservative Party and the Democratic candidate will have the backing of the Working Families Party. But not always. New York City also has a law that allows politicians to make up their own parties if they get enough signatures. So Michael Bloomberg used to run under the Jobs and Education Party. It was a completely made up party that he ran under and got a lot of votes under. It's for people who are uncomfortable voting for Mislayer or Republican, but they want to back the Republican candidate. Well, this year Andrew Cuomo has created his own party. It's called the Fight and Deliver Party and it will be on the ballot in November. Likewise progressives, the Progressive Working Family Party announced that it will not be endorsing Cuomo and could put up Mandani as a nominee in the general election or another, or another progressive candidate. All told, this means there could be four Democrat leaning candidates. Adams, Wald, Mandani and Cuomo. All running in the general election against a single Republican, Curtis Lewa, the founder of the crime prevention nonprofit the Guardian Angels. Also UP is all 51 New York City Council seats is up for grab. Republicans will be defending six seats. Democrats have 45. Most people don't realize, but New York City has moved substantially to the right under Trump. In 2016, Trump won 22.6% of the vote in New York City compared to Hillary Clinton's 78.4%, losing the city by a total of about 56% margin. He only won four New York City Council seats, including the ultra Orthodox Jewish seat in Brooklyn, which votes for Democrats locally. By 2024, however, his number grew to 30% of the vote in New York City to Harris 68%, reducing the Democrat margin from 56 to 38 over 12 years. And the number of council seats he won went from four to eight. He doubled it. It's a lot. That's a lot of gain in a deep blue city with no institutional real Republican Party with a lot of money. Republicans are hoping to cut into Democrats super majority in the City Council and create a real presence shaving away at the progr caucus. And they were also hoping that a divided Democratic field with four Democratic leaning candidates and only one Republican can create a dramatic result where somehow Curtis Lebo wins. This week we have two guests on the show, one Democrat, one Republican, to talk about what's at stake, what are the likely outcomes and what this month's primary holds. Stay tuned.

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[Ryan Seacrest]

Our first guest on today's episode is Hank Shenkoff. He is a veteran Democrat consultant. He's worked on over 700 campaigns, including President Bill Clinton and Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Hank, thank you for being on this podcast.

[Hank Shenkoff]

Thank you for having me on today. I'm very grateful that you called me and asked me to be here.

[Ryan Seacrest]

So Hank, you are an expert in a lot of things with Democratic primaries, especially in New York City. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo has had a very big lead and there's been this one poll, especially by Emerson, showing Assemblyman Madmani really climbing in the polls. Is there any realistic chance that there could be an upset where Cuomo loses?

[Hank Shenkoff]

Six months ago a well known idiot predicted that Mondami would be the one to watch. I was the idiot. And people said to me, aren't you an idiot? And I've been saying it ever since. He's the one to watch for a whole host of reasons. If you look at the cross tabs in these polls, what you see is that Mondami is doing very well with younger, better educated, more professional and more rich people, young people in those quadrants. Cuomo is doing better with poorer people who are more minority people, people who are less educated. The ballot is complicated because of ranked choice voting. Regardless of what the people came up with, ranked choice voting might say, and again, better educated people will be able to manipulate it more significantly. What I find fascinating is that this generation of people who have eaten more regularly, had more housing over their head than anyone else in history, had more opportunity than anybody else has had in history, and are better educated than anybody else in history, have decided that they should be aligning themselves with someone who has been very public about his attitudes about the Middle east, particularly Jews and housing and bus fare and who's going to pay. Now, if I were a municipal worker and someone said to me, vote for Mondami, I would say, what are you out of your minds? Because after you finish taxing everybody and chasing them out of the city, there'll be no one here to pay the, what do you call it, the municipal union agreements.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Now I. So as a strategist, I think, and maybe I'm wrong, I keep looking for what coalitions Cuomo could have. Right. I think that there are a lot of Italians who, 1 remember his father who want an Italian mayor. I'm Italian. I can say, like, there's a lot of ethnic pride in the tribe. Union members, big time supporters, longtime supporters, blacks, Latinos. And I think what has been underreported in a lot of this polling is especially Orthodox Jews who don't, who, who don't answer polls at a high frequency. They tend not to. Is there anyone I'm missing that coalition? Maybe senior citizens, who else?

[Hank Shenkoff]

Let's look at the city's dynamics for a second and its demographics. The wonderful thing about America is that it accepts everyone generally. And it changes and it goes through these extraordinary moments, which is unique to American democracy. You know, we're not tribalistic so much as we become tribalistic, but we're really unified. And what's changing now is we're not as unified, becoming more tribalistic. What does that mean? Because we don't share common heritage. More than 50% of people living in this country Today can no longer trace their roots to Europe, which is a pretty significant thing. New York is the melting pot of the world. Guess what? We're experiencing the same thing. So we have to begin to think about who really cares about what and how do we communicate with them. And the usual gang of consultants haven't figured that out yet because it's not interesting to them. It is very interesting to me. Were I running the Cuomo campaign, the people I'd be talking to are, frankly, Koreans, Chinese, who are much more conservative, who are becoming quickly the most significant portion of the Asian community in New York City. And I guess they're about 18 to 20% now. They're going to increase. If you look at Brooklyn alone, where you have tremendous numbers, I mean, you go to Bensonhurst, where 20 years ago Italians and Jews ruled the roost. Today it is. All the signs on the stores are in Chinese. Very simple. I would be talking to Chinese, I'd be talking to Koreans, I'd be talking to South Asians. The Richmond Hill people, people who own property, who have a vested interest in ensuring that those properties do what they were supposed to do, which is provide the income to put the children of those immigrants through college, which Mondami intends to make impossible. Why smaller units, throw away the taxes. Who's going to put the money into those properties? Simple.

[Ryan Seacrest]

And he wants to control grocery stores, which for Latinos who own a lot of bodeg is. They kind of classify as grocery stores in some capacity. I don't know how we would classify that, but that would hurt their businesses too immensely.

[Hank Shenkoff]

It would injure them significantly. I mean, I've done a lot of work in Latino communities around the. I don't like the word, but Spanish speaking derivative countries, I call them around the country. And I've worked overseas in Spanish speaking countries. It's not a good idea for them. So, you know, I would be looking at this differently. I would also be targeting Irish and Italian Catholics, 40 plus or 40 plus. I'd be looking at, yeah, Koreans, Chinese, South Asians, 40 plus Italian and Irish Catholics. I'd be looking at Jews very differently. I'd X out Manhattan over the top. I wouldn't bother with Manhattan, but I'd be looking at the outer boroughs. I'd be looking at Jews, particularly in Queens. Okay, Kew Gardens Hills, that's central. That general area, whatever's left. The Forest Hills. I'd be targeting the people from Central Asia. We've really taken over that. The Forest Hills Rio park area. And the Russians are now gone. I think in most cases from those communities. And I'd be looking at Brooklyn differently. I'd be looking at, let's see, Marine park, the area around what they call Madison park, which is Madison High School, and whole general areas, Flatbush, Midwood. People think about Jews in New York City, they think about votes by Hasidim or Orthodox people like that. I don't think the numbers are really there. If you look at real voter turnout in Borough park and or Williamsburg, you just don't have what you used to have because those neighborhoods have changed.

[Ryan Seacrest]

What I think you're describing and what is so commonly happening now in New York City. And I am not only a lifelong New York City resident, I am like sixth generation New Yorker.

[Hank Shenkoff]

Bravo, Bravo.

[Ryan Seacrest]

It's Manhattan and the regions that touch Manhattan, northern Staten island, northern Brooklyn, Astoria, Long Island City, Queens, southern Bronx. That versus the rest of the city.

[Hank Shenkoff]

I think that's entirely accurate. If you look at Long Island City and you look at where ground zero is for DSA candidates, it's Queens. You know, that's where the action is. And who is, who is that? Those are people who have gentrified or newcomers to those communities in high rises that have been built and again, who have had the. They are the luckiest generation in the history of the world. They've eaten more frequently, they've been housed better, they've gotten better educational opportunities. And their response all this is to say, drop dead. We owe, we demand more and we like this guy because he's going to, he's going to make us feel better about demanding more and screw everybody else. So that's what that's about.

[Ryan Seacrest]

It's 100% true. It's scary. And I grew up in a time where Long Island City was a shanty Irish neighborhood and no one want to be there at night. And now you can't afford to live there for a lot of people. And I think that what people miss about New York State and New York City is New York State is traditionally, it's not a progressive state. It's an establishment Democrat state.

[Hank Shenkoff]

Well, but hold on, hold on. There's something you're missing and it's not fair to New York State. When I used to look at statewide campaigns, I've been in successful statewide campaigns my whole career. You're looking to say, okay, what are the percentages of who the largest turnout number was? Catholic. That started to shift.

[Lenovo]

Why?

[Hank Shenkoff]

Because the decline of religion as an organizing tool, that is changing now with the new immigrants from Spanish speaking countries who are filling up Parishes that were about to fall apart or close who are also hard working. Many of them are, you know, take the Laborers Union people, they're Ecuadorians, they go to church, they have their, they have, they have their own ways of praying which are consistent with Catholic theology. But they're participants and they have a vested interest in the system. Those are the people that the Cuomos and the others who are against Mandami need to start reaching. So that the thing about this differently, in other words, we're not thinking about politics the way we should. We're thinking about the politics the way we think we should think about politics. And so long as we do, that has a much better shot.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Well, I think also the thing is that someone asked me how was he gaining traction? What I said is New York City has become a sponge for the most far left people living in other places. If you're a far left progressive in Kentucky, you're not gonna stay in Kentucky, you're gonna move to New York City. And the working class person, irregardless of their race. But for many of them, white working class have left the city and they have moved into. A lot of. Black working class would love to see it too. They have moved into those neighborhoods. You go to certain parts of Brooklyn that were a hundred percent black when I was growing up. It's maybe a third white now, but they're not white, you know, Irish working class. They are far left progressive activists who have moved into those neighborhoods and have changed them.

[Hank Shenkoff]

Absolutely accurate. Who's leaving New York? The young people you're talking about are not leaving New York. The people who are older, who don't want to be here anymore and who can't afford to live here are leaving New York. Those are the people leaving. The trucks, the moving vans are on the streets. They are leaving. Look, if you were a police officer, white, black or Latino, and let's see your husband, you're a police officer retiring and you're a second grade detective. Your husband is with police department. Was in the police department and was a, was a patrol officer, you know, police officer. Not, not promoted. And you're getting two pensions and your health care is taken care of until you're 66, right? And you're going to wait for Social Security and you're going to go get another job after you sell your house that you bought for 50,000, for 300,000 or wherever it is, more than 300, 500, 600, you're going to take the cash, you take your pension, you're going to Take your health insurance, you're going to leave, you move to Florida. If you're black, you're going to move to Florida. If you're white, you're going to move to Florida. If you're a Latino, you're going to move to Florida, you're leaving. Let's be real, who wants to stay here? Unless you love the place, you believe that it's savable and that it is worth being here now, that's it.

[Ryan Seacrest]

One thing we saw in the last election, the last presidential election was a tremendous growth for the support of Donald Trump in New York City.

[Hank Shenkoff]

Right.

[Ryan Seacrest]

He went from 21% in 2016 to 30% in 2024. That's a lot for a Republican candidate for primarily of both white working class voters, the ones who are left, and among ethnic minorities, specifically Asians and Hispanics, specifically in Queens, the Bronx and Brooklyn. What in those communities, in the largest city in America, in a city that has really no functioning Republican Party, as, as it is known in other parts of the country, they are organically moving towards Trump. Why is it that Democrats are losing them without Republicans spending a lot of time, money and attention trying to get.

[Hank Shenkoff]

Important questions you're raising. If you look at South Brooklyn for a second, you look at where the numbers are, Trump did extraordinarily well. What is this about? We have no functioning Republican Party in New York City, which is tragic. I've always believed in two party systems and I think that it is, or more. I have tremendous, I always had tremendous regard for the late Mike Long and certainly for Jerry Kasara's success in the conservative party. Whether I agree with them or not, it doesn't matter. The fact that they have principle, they stand for something and are prepared to work for it is a pretty significant thing. So we don't have a Republican Party because people decided we shouldn't have a Republican Party. And Trump, the Trump, Trumpiness has made that more difficult. In New York, where Trump's numbers are astronomically bad now. But people are tired of a system that they believe not to be representative of them, that is not representative of blue collar people anymore, no matter what their race is. And if you look at the numbers that Trump had going back to 2016 in the South Bronx, you have to be fairly shocked by it. Right? It is a resentment built upon reality. And the reality is that they're not being serviced by that party. They don't feel part of it and they believe the elites have taken it over. Now, whether Republicans are controlled by elites or not, they are doesn't matter. The rhetoric works. And that's one of the reasons why Democrats are in so much trouble in this country. You know, as a Clinton guy. Right. I can tell you we're back in time. The party has lost its place because they never. It's not a party anymore. What it is, it's a collection of clans. Very different way. You can't have a political party when there's no. When there's no joining mechanism, where people are clannish because their interests are very particularistic and where you have no enforcement tool. The president of the Republican Party is the enforcement tool. The enforcement tool among Democrats used to be labor unions, but they're not as strong as they once were. And the strongest of them, the Teamsters, walked away from the Democrats and made sure that done their best to help Donald Trump get elected, knowing that the basic part of their population of membership were, frankly, Trump.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Hank, going last question. If you were advising Governor Cuomo, former Governor Cuomo, what is his message in the last three weeks to Democratic voters in New York City?

[Hank Shenkoff]

I'll make you feel safe again and I'll make you feel wanted.

[Ryan Seacrest]

That's great. That's right. Hank, where can people go to read more of your stuff and find out more about you?

[Hank Shenkoff]

I've never been really good at self promotion. I just go out and do this. I have no idea. If you said, I'm a blue collar product of New York City that got to do this work all over the world. I have no idea how it happened. There's a lot of stuff online. It amazes me every day. And I think I'm the luckiest, most fortunate man. I would leave you with one thought, though. I'm not a fool. And what I believe is that whatever I have been able to achieve in my life, former high school dropout, you know, that free education, University, City University of New York. I would never gone to school without New York. I would never become Hank Shaikoff. And I'm. I urge everyone to remember not my example, but the example of millions who came before me and afterwards who want the same opportunities. And they got to figure out which of the people running for mayor will make sure those dreams can come true.

[Ryan Seacrest]

That's great. I'm a product of New York City, too. Although I went to Catholic school, but New York made me into a person. So I love that city endlessly. And I completely relate to you. And I end up going to politics. And I also, I'm a college dropout. Not high school, but college.

[Hank Shenkoff]

So I went back. I got lucky again. CUNY made it possible for me when there was no tuition.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Yeah, I went to cuny.

[Hank Shenkoff]

You know, I worked. I was a counterman at the Carnegie in the stage and all those places, the union counterman. I mean, you know, I was a police officer. That's fairly well known. I mean, I had an extraordinarily interesting life. And through a series of accidents, this occurred, and I haven't looked back. But again, this generation of people have had it really good. Why they're in revolt is the question that Democrats need to answer. Because if the two parties split, one going all the way to the right and one going all the way to the left, it tells you that there's something wrong in the country because there's no place where all of us can meet anymore. And that is severely troubling to me.

[Ryan Seacrest]

That's a great closer. And, Hank, New York makes the most interesting people in the world, and you're one of them. Thank you for being on this podcast.

[Hank Shenkoff]

Thank you for having me on. I'm grateful.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Hey, we'll be right back after this.

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[Ryan Seacrest]

My other guest for this episode is Councilwoman Joanne Arreola. She is the minority leader of the Republican Party in the New York City Council. She represents the area around Howard beach and Rockaway and Ozone Park. She's a good friend of mine. Councilman Ariella, thank you for being here.

[Joanne Arreola]

Such a pleasure. Thank you so much.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Ryan, this is your podcast debut, so it's very exciting.

[Joanne Arreola]

It really is. I'm very excited.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Now, most people don't know this, but New York City has been ticking to the right in the last couple elections. In 2019, there were only six elected Republicans in all of New York City and there are currently 16. That's nothing to sneeze at, getting 10 seats in over the course of the five years. Given what we have with the elections this year, what are Republicans really focusing on?

[Joanne Arreola]

We're focusing on the migrant crisis, working collaboratively with ICE to alleviate that crisis, law and order crime. We're working with, with the state representatives that are Republicans to address criminal justice reform, raise the age and of course, cashless bail, because these are all the things that put us where we are today.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Well, we have the elections for the City council and the mayor. Is there any chance for Republicans to gain in the City Council?

[Joanne Arreola]

Yes, we definitely have areas where we can gain. I think in Queens we can take Bob Holden's seat, which will be vacated because he's term limited with Alicia Viconis.

[Ryan Seacrest]

For those who don't know that is in Western Queens. That's in. That's one of the red spots you always see in a map of New York City's. It's traditionally red. He is a conservative Democrat, now retiring. So yes, that's one of the areas.

[Joanne Arreola]

The other is, is in Brooklyn 47. We have Richard Bar Simian. He's currently the chair of the, of the Republican Party. And I think that he's now in a hotly contested primary, which I believe he will win and I think he will take it across the finish line in, in November.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Well, I Think that what people don't, I think realize everyone kind of has a caricature of New York and New Yorkers. But Republicans have had tremendous interest gains rather with the Hispanic community and the Asian community. And this has been with Governor Lee Zeldin's campaign. This has been with Curtis Lee was first campaign. There's is now with Trump's campaign. You've seen this continuous increase. How does a party work to sit there and try to keep those voters? How do we sit there and work to have those conversations? You have a lot of Southeast Asians in your own district. What are and Hispanics in your district too. What are some things that Republicans in urban areas should be doing to build those kinds of connections?

[Joanne Arreola]

What we've been doing in Queens county is doing a lot of outreach and we're doing a lot of offshoot clubs, South Asian Republican clubs, Asian Republican clubs, Hispanic Republican clubs, really inviting them into the main organization called the Queens county gop. And the reason why we've seen such a shift in these demographics is because they've just had enough of Democratic rule where they were losing their specialized schools, their kids couldn't get to school safely. The crime on the subways and the buses that children couldn't take to go to school or people couldn't go to work. When you talk about the Asian community and Hispanic community, the Bangladeshi community, any community where you have one and two income families that have a home and just want to have their piece of Americana, they're going to vote Republican.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Right? And we, and this is I think what we're seeing a lot in the Democratic primary for mayor where you have Assembly Mandani, who is running on a very far left platform, specifically something that he's really curated towards Manhattanites, people who live in places like Astoria, people who live in Williamsburg, high income, college educated people who would both be negatively affected by his. By his platform, but the working class would be much more negatively affected by his platform. I had on my last guest was a Democratic consultant and Harry Shenkoff, and he sat there and said that working class people feel like they are abandoned by the elitism of the Democratic Party and that's why you're seeing these voters move towards Republicans. Is that a conversation you've had with voters in your time as a councilwoman and now as minority leader?

[Joanne Arreola]

I think that the people I've spoken to, the middle class voters that I've spoken to, feel that the Democratic Party has abandoned them, that that's not the party of their father and grandfather. And the reason why they registered in the Democratic Party to begin with. A person like Mondami, what he wants to do is socialize an entire city and that will just grow. He gets money from all over the country, Soros money to help him complete the miss of taking away our American freedoms and our way of life. Just one of his initiatives, which is to own all, have government, own all of the mom and pop shops is just insane.

[Ryan Seacrest]

All the grocery stores.

[Joanne Arreola]

Yeah, grocery stores. I mean, are we now turning into a communist country? A communist? These people save their money. They came from other countries legally, they saved their money, they went into business. That is what they have. That's their piece of Americana. And you want to just take that from them? No, we're not ready for that. We're not ready for him. And I don't believe that there are enough DSA members to take him over the finish line. I don't care how he pretends to be everything to all people. Donald Trump woke up the voters and they're very aware of who's running and what they stand for.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Yeah. What DSA is Democratic Socialists of America. And I brought this up to Harry for a lot of. A lot of ethnic neighborhoods and a lot of Chinese neighbors. For example, you have Chinese curated food stores that are just specifically heavily for the foods that they like. There's a lot of bodegas that are owned by Latinos. I believe bodegas would fall under grocery stores. They sell enough produce, I guess, to be a grocery store. That would have devastating effects for Latinos and Asians in our city, let alone everybody else. But specifically small business owners who own those types of.

[Joanne Arreola]

We're about less government, not more government. We want people to come here, open up businesses and succeed, just like my grandparents did when they came in from Italy. So this is what we want. We don't want to take away their rights. What's next? We'll have ticket books to say, oh, we can buy bread today or we can buy eggs the next day. This is just ridiculous. This is communism. It's not socialism. It's terrible. It's Marxism. I can go on and on.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Right. Well, there so. And I brought this to my, to my listeners. There is now in the Democratic, in the general election for mayor, there is a situation where we're going to have former attorney general, Attorney general, Assistant Attorney General Walden, you'll have Eric Adams running as both independents and you will have a Democrat. And if Andrew Cuomo, who is still likely to win the primary, if he is the Democratic nominee, the Working Family Party has said they will put up their own candidate. So there's a potential of having four Democratic candidates, four different Democratic leaning candidates versus Curtis Lewis. In such an environment where the Democrat vote could be split four different ways, is there any chance for Curtis to win the mayoral election, which everyone sees as a very big long shot?

[Joanne Arreola]

It isn't a long shot. It is very feasible. Why? He got 33% or so in, in his race head to head against Eric Adams last time out. Now you named the institutional candidates. We've just had an onslaught of independent candidates that filed with the Board of Elections that we won't know how many of them have been certified or not. So we don't know how many are going into the general election. That lessens the percentage needed. And I think that when people look and see what the field of candidates are and what they've done, when you have a proven record that hasn't succeeded like Andrew Cuomo, like Eric Adams or the threat of becoming a communist city with Zoram being our mayor, people are starting to look at Curtis. Curtis has been out there for over 30 years. His message has not changed. He has not changed. He wants to set this city right. And the only way to really do it, whether you believe in him or not, is the only way to make change is to have change. And the only difference of everyone who's on that list that's different is Curtis Lewis. And if we want change, we're going to have to make that change at the voting booth.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Right. And I mean I have, I have seen Curtis Lewis I don't know how many times and just not a Republican. It's just out and about. He does, he does, he is doing the old fashioned campaigning when you look at what. So he ran for those listeners don't know. He ran in 2021. He got I think 27.5, 28%. He did slight better than Nicole Malitakis who now is a congresswoman, but she ran for mayor four years prior to that. They, they had very similar results. But it's very interesting. Curtis did substantially better in the Bronx, Queens, in Brooklyn and worse in Manhattan and Queens especially, which you represent from there is a real chance in Queens like there has never been before. My home, home county, Donald Trump's home county, where you have a real, where you're seeing political realignment happen in real time with the Asian community, with some Southeast Asians looking into the future, which no one has a crystal ball. But if these trends continue, is there a chance that we could see a Queens county One day that has a Republican congressman that has, you know, Republican state senators and state assemblymen. Again, you know, is that a real possibility as we are progressing down this path?

[Joanne Arreola]

It is an absolute possibility. Because even if you take into consideration not just the Latinos and the Asians, if you look at the African American community who have taken flight from this city and moved to the Carolinas, Georgia and any other state that they feel safer in, you know, I ran for BOROUGH President in 2020, as you know, Ryan, and you know that. And I came into the race late where we were outnumbered 8 to 1 in, in registration, Democrat to Republican, and I was unsuccessful. However, I was unsuccessful in a 2 to 1. The ratio was reduced to 2 to 1. And where do those votes come from in the areas of the African American population where they're saying, we don't want less police, we want more police, we don't want more guns on the street, we want less guns on the street. We don't want criminals on the street, we want them behind bars. They have the very same ideology that we do, but they never knew they had a chance. So now it's up to the Republicans to make sure that we do enough outreach to those demographics, Asian, the African American and the, and the south and the Latino community, so that they know that we're here, they know that we have candidates. People are leery to donate money to Republicans because they don't think that that money is well spent. It is well spent and it would mean the difference between your life changing for the better or worse.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Right. And also being the difference of New York State. There is no longer a blue Queens County. There is no longer a guarantee that the governorship or the Senate seats remain blue either. I mean, the change is going to come from New York City. It's not going to come from upstate. Long island has changed radically. Staten island has changed radically. But New York City is really where it's happening. It's happening. It's the change. The voter shift is the reason that New York State moved 11 points. The biggest right wing shift of any state in the entire country is because of New York City. And I don't think that's appreciated enough. Councilman, one last question for you before you have to go. What is the goal of the New York City Council Republican Party, and you have a larger thing called the Common Sense Caucus, which includes conservative Democrats to. When it comes to working into legislation with a mayor, if you're a minority, I think people don't appreciate how an effective minority can change the path that a city takes path and departing in.

[Joanne Arreola]

Right now we're at 8 in, you know, in the common sense caucus. Well, actually we're seven because we had Kalman Yeager went to the Assembly. But we are considered a voting block now. And we do have leverage when we speak with the mayor's office, when we speak with, with the, with the speaker's office. And we put our, our legislation forward. And if it's common sense legislation, you'd be surprised how many members who are historically progressive but found out that from the dsa, the Democratic Socialists of America, that they were just not progressive enough. So they've gone further towards moderation. And so they're now signing onto our bills, they're signing onto our letters. They're seeing out perspective and in kind, we're doing the same with them. If it is a common sense letter or a common sense legislation, we sign on and support it.

[Ryan Seacrest]

It. That's great. Well, Councilman, where can people go to find more of your information about what you do about the Republicans running for the, I mean the Republicans City Council and supporting Republicans running in New York City?

[Joanne Arreola]

So of course, it's all online. Campaign finance has a website for all of the candidates. In my particular case, I'm on all forms of social media. And I have.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Councilman, it's under.

[Joanne Arreola]

So there are so many. So it's Councilwoman Joe and Areola. Joe and Areola for, for, for New York Council. New York City Council. And then we have Twitter, which is @joannariola32, and, and Instagram, which is @joannariola32. So you can get me that way or you can just call the office at 718-738-1083. We'll help anybody.

[Ryan Seacrest]

You know, it's a national, it's a national podcast. So I don't know if they're calling, but thank you so much. Thank you so much. Pleasure. It was so great. And let's see what happens later on this month.

[Joanne Arreola]

It's always great to see you.

[Ryan Seacrest]

You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. We'll be right back.

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[Ryan Seacrest]

Okay, that was great. And it was super interesting seeing both sides of the party sit there and talk. We'll see what happens in New York in the month. But I, I'm super excited about this. Now for the Ask Me Anything segment. You could be part of the Ask me Anything segment if you email Ryan at numbers game podcast.com that's ryanumbers plural game podcast.com I'll take questions on anything. I want to get back to Russell's questions from last week because he asked me a really important question. I didn't have, I think, the best answer for it. So he asked, do Democrats have a smug elitist problem? And do Republicans, independents know how Democrats think and see the world? Okay, first on the smug problem. I was able to find the data this. In 2024, Yuga found that 31% of Americans said that Democrats were out of touch in terms of their association with elitism, the perception was highest among Republicans. 53% of Republicans sat there and said that Democrats were smug and elite. Among an NBC poll from 2025 the following year obviously said that 38 of adults find that neither major political party fights for them and that Democrats especially were disconnected and more tied to elitism. This was especially felt among young voters and even among progressives. So, yeah, there is an elitism problem on the Democratic Party and the polls are showing it. Now for the question of do Republicans and independents know how Democrats feel? That's a great question because there is something called a perception gap. And you see this in a number of polls. In 2021, Democrats have have shifted to the left, right? There was a significant shift. There are 51% identify as liberal now and versus 25% back in 1994. So there is been a shift to the left, but is a misperception given how people feel about certain topics, certain issues. Right. Okay, okay. So on the issues that Republicans usually believe that Democrats have a uniform belief like a 99, 95% in open borders or universal health care or welfare. In reality, it is much, much smaller among those who identify as very liberal to support those kinds of things. It's closer to 20%. So there is a misconception, there is a misperception over individual issues. Now they don't consistent poll on all these issues. It's more of an alignment of where they are as an ideology based on very far left, very far progressive and where the party is. That's why you get these polls that say do you support Trump's mass deportation? And something like 20% or 15% of Democrats will say yes. When you take the word Trump out of the equation, it bumps up to like 35% because the party is not as uniform as people think it is. And that is that's also true of how Democrats think of Republicans. Democrats think Republicans are much more to the right than they actually are. That's a great question. Thank you so much for asking it. I really appreciate these kinds of questions, Russell and I hope to get your questions soon on Thursday's episode. If you like this podcast, please hit like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app. Apple Podcasts. Wherever you get your podcast, if you're feeling generous, please give me a good review. I got a few more on Apple. I noticed them. I check these things out. I really, really appreciate all of you. Thank you so much. We'll be back on Thursday.

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