Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show Episode Title: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Polling for the 2026 Midterms
Release Date: August 14, 2025

Overview

In this episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, hosts Ryan Graduski and Jacob Goldstein delve into the intricate world of polling data ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Balancing detailed numerical analysis with engaging narratives, the hosts explore the current political landscape, highlighting key shifts in voter sentiment, the implications for upcoming races, and broader systemic issues such as the H1B visa system and citizenship testing reforms.

1. 2026 Midterm Polling Analysis

Generic Ballot Insights

Ryan Graduski opens the discussion by examining the latest generic ballot polls, which reflect overall voter sentiment rather than specific candidate preferences. He notes a significant trend:

“Republicans have slipped about a point or two in the last month. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows it's a D +3.5 race.”
[02:54]

This D +3.5 indicates a national tilt favoring Democrats by 3.5%, a notable shift from the R +2 seen in the 2024 elections, representing a 5.5% swing towards the Democrats.

Impact on the House and Senate

Graduski cautions listeners about interpreting these numbers as definitive predictors, emphasizing that polling is merely a snapshot in time:

“Polling does not predict the future. Polling is a snapshot of the present. Things can change, things will change.”
[02:54]

Despite the slight Democratic advantage, the Republican prospects in the House appear challenging, with Graduski suggesting a probable loss. However, the Senate remains more favorable for Republicans, though not without its hurdles in competitive states.

Key State Races

The discussion shifts to pivotal states that could sway control of the Senate:

• Georgia:
  Ryan highlights a tight race where incumbent Republican Mike Collins is trailing Democrat John Ossoff by just one point, based on recent polls. Collins, despite being relatively new to the Senate, has legislative accomplishments but faces an uphill battle without significant national support.

  “Collins can win the seat, but he's going to need the national environment to improve.”
  [08:30]

• North Carolina:
  Former Governor Roy Cooper maintains a six-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley, who is running his first Senate campaign. Cooper's unblemished statewide election record and bipartisan appeal make this a challenging race for Republicans.

  “Roy Cooper has never lost an election statewide in North Carolina.”
  [11:15]

• Maine:
  Maine's Senate race involves unique dynamics, with Susan Collins being a standout figure whose individual circumstances make the race less predictable.

• New Jersey and New York City:
  In New Jersey, Governor Phil Murphy faces re-election with shifting voter registrations slightly favoring Republicans. New York City's mayoral race presents a bleak outlook for Democrats, with socialist candidate Mandani leading, posing a significant threat to traditional Democratic candidates like Andrew Cuomo.

2. H1B Visa and Citizenship Test Overhaul

Citizenship Test Reforms

Graduski addresses recent changes in the U.S. citizenship test overseen by Joseph Edlow, the new head of USCIS. Edlow aims to make the test more comprehensive by increasing the number of questions and ensuring they better reflect American values and history.

“Access to a lifetime in the United States... because you can memorize how many stars and stripes there are. I'm very glad that Edlow is doing this.”
[23:58]

He critiques the current test's perceived ease, suggesting that the ability to pass with minimal knowledge undermines the integrity of citizenship.

H1B Visa System Changes

The hosts discuss the Trump administration's proposed reforms to the H1B visa system, which prioritize applicants based on earnings rather than a random lottery. This shift aims to attract higher-skilled immigrants and address perceived abuses in the existing system.

“This comes from the Hindustan Times... the new rule is anticipated to relaunch a Trump administration plan that would prioritize H1B applicants based on earnings.”
[34:15]

Graduski supports these changes, highlighting their potential to reduce corruption and better align immigration with national economic needs.

3. Ask Me Anything Segment

H1B Visas and Senator Schmidt

In this interactive segment, a listener named Patrick inquires about potential legislative changes to the H1B system and seeks opinions on Senator Schmidt from Missouri. Graduski responds by emphasizing the importance of skilled immigration and criticizes the current system's inefficiencies.

“If almost all immigration is skilled, then it's just a question of numbers.”
[35:17]

Regarding Senator Schmidt, he expresses a neutral stance, acknowledging his work on broadband spectrum but noting a lack of compelling legislative achievements.

Poll Participation Encouragement

Another listener, Joel from Ohio, questions whether people should participate in polls. Graduski strongly advocates for it, stressing that accurate polls require diverse participation to reflect true public sentiment.

“Republicans, answer polls.”
[35:17]

He laments low response rates from certain demographics, which skews the data and hampers effective policy-making.

Senate Races in Texas and Kentucky

Responding to David Rolfe's query about Senate contests, Graduski provides his analysis of the Texas and Kentucky races. In Texas, he sees Senator Ted Cruz as likely being supplanted by Ken Paxton, whom he describes as a "champion for the base."

“He [Paxton] is a fighter... they're going to stick with them, they're going to ride with them.”
[35:17]

In Kentucky, he favors Nate Morris over other candidates, drawing parallels to JD Vance's campaign strategies and expressing optimism about Morris's prospects.

“I like Nate Morris and I think he's probably likely to win.”
[35:17]

Conclusion and Upcoming Topics

Ryan Graduski wraps up the episode by reiterating the challenges facing Republicans in key races and hints at future discussions focusing on underreported actions by the Trump administration. He maintains a commitment to delivering honest and comprehensive political analysis.

“It's getting pretty bleak... but I would rather tell you the truth than repeat things you would like to hear.”
[29:10]

Listeners are encouraged to stay tuned for more insights in upcoming episodes.

Notable Quotes

• On Generic Ballot Shift:
  “Republicans have slipped about a point or two in the last month. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows it's a D +3.5 race.”
  [02:54]

• On Citizenship Test:
  “It's a little bit of civics, a tiny bit of very basic history... You don’t have to play 'Are you smarter than a fifth grader?'”
  [23:58]

• On Poll Participation:
  “Republicans, answer polls.”
  [35:17]

• On Senate Races:
  “He [Ken Paxton] is a fighter... they're going to stick with them, they're going to ride with them.”
  [35:17]

This episode provides a thorough examination of the current polling data influencing the 2026 midterm elections, coupled with thoughtful discussions on immigration policies and civic engagement. Graduski and Goldstein offer nuanced perspectives, balancing statistical analysis with real-world political dynamics, making it a valuable listen for those seeking to understand the upcoming electoral landscape.