Podcast Summary:

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show – “It’s a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Populism and the Polls”
Episode Date: October 27, 2025
Host: Ryan Girdusky (sub-hosting)
Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, iHeartPodcasts

Main Theme / Purpose

This episode provides a deep dive into the data, polling trends, and election analysis ahead of the off-year local elections in the U.S., with comparisons to recent key elections abroad. Host Ryan Girdusky offers sharp commentary on the domestic and international state of populism, voter turnout patterns, and party challenges, with a particular focus on New Jersey, Virginia, California, and the New York City mayor’s race. The episode mixes detailed statistics, polling skepticism, and biting assessments of candidates and their campaign strategies.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Global Populism and Recent Foreign Elections

Argentina’s Midterms (03:09-06:22)

• Argentina’s first election since President Javier Milei, labeled “radical libertarian,” took office.
  • NYT coverage framed this as a referendum on populism and Trumpism (03:50).
  • Milei’s reforms cut inflation from 160% to 30% and lowered poverty, but the middle class “bore the brunt” (NYT).
  • Girdusky counters: “If you are in a country with 160% annual inflation and a 42% poverty level, what middle class? … Government workers who lost their jobs…they don’t generate prosperity because the government doesn’t create wealth.” (05:25)
• Pollster Atlas Intel was highlighted for its accuracy in predicting the outcome.
  • The party “absolutely romped the competition” winning by 8 points, credited to Atlas’s forecasts (06:20).

Netherlands’ Parliamentary Election (06:35-09:58)

• Big focus on the rise and practical limitations of national populist parties in Europe.
• Dutch system has many parties—proportional representation breeds coalition governments.
• Wilders’ Freedom Party came first previously but couldn’t govern after coalition partners refused him as PM.
  • “Voters do not like political instability… But they are also unhappy with the state of immigration.” (08:15)
• The upcoming election could serve as a referendum on the “governability” of right-wing populists in Europe.

2. U.S. Election Turnout & Early Voting Trends

New Jersey (10:00-13:41)

• Dems hold a ~200,000 raw vote lead entering the final week (11:00).
• Early voting margins: Dems down from 16 points in 2021 to 3 points now (still better than their 2024 performance, which was only a 1-point margin).
• “Republicans are worse than they were in 2024… but better than they were in 2021…” (11:20)
• GOP showing unexpected strength in some swing districts but still trails in the aggregate.
• Warning: “They’re going to have to chase so many people on election day because they didn’t bank their vote early…That’s cause for concern.” (12:50)
• Democratic turnout is highest among white, college-educated voters; black-majority districts are underperforming.

Virginia (13:45-16:32)

• Fairfax County nearly matches 2024 turnout—a bad sign for Republicans (14:00).
• “I think it’s basically over for Winsome Sears… but let’s bring up the election for Miaras” (15:00).
• Note: “A lot of black majority areas are showing low participation so far…” (15:38)
• If AG Jason Miyares wins, it’ll likely be due to low black turnout.
• “Jay Jones [Dem candidate] is the only black candidate running this year…so the fact that they have low turnout says quite a bit.” (15:50)

California & New York City (16:35-20:35)

• California: Dems returned ballots at a higher rate than registration margin—boosted by the No Kings rally (17:18).
  • “Democrats have dominated with 51% of all ballots returned while Republicans have been lagging.” (17:25)
• NYC turnout patterns: high in Manhattan/Brooklyn, low in Bronx/Staten Island (17:55).
• Early vote is much older than during the primary.
  • “Voters over age 55 made up 50% of [early turnout] … [ages] 25-34 only 16%.” (18:25)
• Black and Latino neighborhoods show poor turnout, especially compared to white, college-educated areas.
  • “The college educated white vote turning out big, big numbers, probably both for Mandani and Cuomo, the minority areas that Cuomo really needs, he is lagging pretty significantly.” (19:35)
• Broad trend (20:20):
  • College-educated and older voters are up.
  • Working class (especially black) voters not energizing.
  • “If it’s a question because Trump’s name is on the ballot… That’s a problem for Republicans. It also becomes a problem for Democrats when you look at the black vote.” (20:45)

3. NYC Mayoral Race – Candidate Analysis (24:27-34:55)

Andrew Cuomo

• Criticized for passive, complacent approach:
  • “He has never faced a tough election in his entire life.” (25:19)
  • “He thought, hey, I’m not Zoron, and that will be enough for Republicans. And he is learning the hard way that that is not true.” (29:57)
  • “Maybe Andrew Cuomo was never a talented politician… he just happened to have a D behind his name.” (30:53)
  • “Cuomo is going to end this campaign not saying, ‘Hey, I left it all on the field.’ He’s gonna lose his campaign without even putting his cleats on.” (31:21)

Curtis Sliwa

• Accused of self-sabotage and squandering leverage:
  • Despite five years of running as a Republican in a rightward-shifting city, “he only cracked 20% in two polls… since May.” (32:39)
  • “Curtis Lewa comes off cartoonish…a New York of a bygone era, a New York that I love, but a New York of a bygone era nonetheless.” (33:09)
  • “He was offered $10 million to drop out of the race…and he turned all that down.” (33:20)
  • “He could have actually used his immense leverage to help the city’s GOP instead of making it about himself…he threw it all away. And that as a consultant makes my blood boil.” (34:33)
• Conclusion: “I want better for the Republican Party of New York City than nominees for mayor that want for them. And that’s what’s tragic.” (34:51)

4. Ask Me Anything Segment

Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act (38:08-42:44)

• Explains background: prohibits denial/abridgment of vote based on race/color.
• The Supreme Court is considering whether Section 2 remains constitutional after it moved from “intent” to “effects-based” provisions (39:38).
• “If [the Court] goes full ham, they may [rule] that [VRA] Section 2 is entirely unconstitutional at this point. If the whole thing is struck down, Republicans…are going to go on a binge redistricting…and gain probably 12 to 14 more seats.” (40:20-41:10)

Visa Overstays and Illegal Immigration (42:45-45:00)

• “Nearly 40% of all illegal immigrants who came in 2023 are visa overstays, so about 500,000.” (43:36)
• Contrast: Mexican immigrants primarily cross border illegally, not overstay visas.
• “Countries like India…have a lot of these [visa] overstays…number one is the nation of Chad…almost 50%…” (44:03)
• Summary stat: Historically, at one point overstays were a majority, but under Biden that has changed.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Argentina’s crisis reporting:
  “I’m sorry, if you are in a country with a 160% annual rate of inflation and a 42% poverty level, what middle class?” (Ryan Girdusky, 05:25)

• On coalition instability in Dutch politics:
  “It is the biggest participation trophy in the Western world.” (07:38)

• On Republicans’ Election Day Hurdles:
  “They’re going to have to chase so many people on election day because they didn’t bank their vote early…That’s cause for concern.” (12:52)

• On New York City Mayoral Race:
  “Cuomo is going to end this campaign not saying, ‘Hey, I left it all on the field.’ He’s gonna lose his campaign without even putting his cleats on.” (31:21)
  “Curtis Lewa comes off cartoonish. He’s got the beret on…a New York of a bygone era, a New York that I love, but a New York of a bygone era nonetheless.” (33:09)

• On Sliwa’s lost opportunity:
  “This leverage he could have built for Republicans is probably a one time thing and he threw it all away. And that as a consultant makes my blood boil.” (34:33)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Argentina and Netherlands populist elections: 03:09–09:58
• US Early voting data (New Jersey, Virginia, CA, NYC): 10:00–20:35
• Broader analysis of turnout by race/class: 20:20–21:18
• NYC mayoral candidate criticism: 24:27–34:55
• Ask Me Anything (VRA): 38:08–42:44
• Ask Me Anything (visa overstays): 42:45–45:00

Summary Table: Voter Turnout & Trends

| State/City | Democrat Advantage | Republican Trend | Notable Turnout Patterns | |-------------------|-----------------------|-------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| | New Jersey | ~200,000 raw vote lead| Worse than ‘24, better than ‘21 | Dems strong early, GOP must catch up Election Day| | Virginia | High Dem turnout | Low black-majority turnout a silver lining for GOP| Democrats strong in college/white districts | | California | 51% ballots Dem | Lagging | Dems exceeding registration margin; GOP low | | NYC | Manhattan/Brooklyn strong | Weak in Bronx/Staten Island | Older/white turnout dominant, youth & minority low|

Concluding Review

Ryan Girdusky’s episode focuses on how numbers and hard data chart the current path of American politics—echoing and contrasting international populist movements. The numbers reveal key strategic weaknesses and strengths within both parties, especially in turnout and voter enthusiasm. By drawing parallels between U.S. and international populism, Girdusky underscores the importance of both polling scrutiny and local ground games in upcoming elections. His biting, insider critique of New York’s mayoral candidates brings home how candidate strategy—and sometimes ego—can squander rare opportunities for their parties.

For listeners hoping to understand election momentum and the real stories behind the polls, this episode provides pointed, detailed analysis with ample numbers, anecdotes, and take-no-prisoners political commentary.