← The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Populism and the Polls
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Ryan Graduski
Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. It is Monday, October 27, 2025. We are just eight days away from the off year local elections. I feel like we've been talking about this for, for eight years at this point. So it's finally the last week of the election. Make sure you plank a plan to go out and vote. I promise you, no matter if you think that you don't live in Virginia or New Jersey, there's local elections happening across the entire country. So figure out who's running, get out and show up and go vote. Especially for school boards. We have a lot of school board candidates in my pack running this year. I spent a lot of time thinking about the New York mayoral race, which I'll have more about at the end of the show before I talk to you about the rest of the country and the country as a whole. But I want to actually spend a second to talk about some races that have happened overseas because I think they're important. They're important for an American context. First, in Argentina, they had their first national election since President Javier Javier Malay, the radical libertarian, as the New York Times called him, won the presidency in 2023. This is basically their version of the midterms. Now, polls show that this was going to be a tight race. Most polls estimate that Melee's would be over or under about two points. And it's funny, over the weekend, the New York Times covered this election and basically made it a referendum not only about free market and economics and capitalism and libertarianism, but also about Trump because everything has to be about Trump all the time. And really about the rise of populism across the west because the Trump administration just gave Argentina billions of dollars. And people are saying that that's not America first or, you know, whatnot, are asking questions of whether that's legitimate given how much he spent cut and spending from other countries over the seas. So remember going to the last presidential election, Argentina was in an absolute state of decline. I believe that it had the worst economy of any white majority country in the world. But the funniest thing is that the way that the Times describe Malay's government was they were like, it's a disaster, Malay. Now listen, Malay has done a lot of reforms because Argentina has, was basically been a socialist country since the time of Peron. And when describing the state of Argentina's economy and, and the of the president, Malay, the time is right, quote Mr. Malay's effort to reduce inflation from the annual rate of 160% when he took office to around 30% now has helped decrease the poverty rate by 10 percentage points to 32%. But experts say the middle class has borne the brunt of his austerity program with sharp increases in utility bills, school fees and healthcare costs, forcing many households to scale back spending. I'm just gonna say what middle class. I'm sorry, if you are in a country with a hundred and sixty percent annual rate of inflation and a 42% poverty level, what middle class? What they're describing is basically government workers who lost their jobs. Now I'm not saying government workers are never necessary. I'm not saying they don't do hard work times, but they don't generate prosperity because the government doesn't create wealth. Anyway, the times continued on how some of Malay's even, even some Malay's closest allies and supporters were turning on him and there was a lot of uncertainty. Well, the results came in and Malay's party is called La Libertad Avanza. You know guys, how well I do at pronouncing things. So I believe that that was correct. La Libertard Alonsa absolutely romped the competition. They won 41% of the vote, eight points ahead of the nearest competitor. I need to give a little credit where it's due. The pollster Atlas intel, which was rated as the most accurate pollster in the 2024 US presidential election, they were the only ones to get this election correct. I mean, and even close to correct. The country is very tough to poll. But they said Malay's party would win by six and he won by eight, which is in the margin of error. And so credit to them where it's due. I think I've heard that they have polling being done in Virginia and New Jersey, which will probably be the last major pollster to look at either state before their elections next week. So that will be interesting. Hopefully that will be out before the Thursday show and definitely be out, of course before next week's show, which was the last day before the election. So I'll be able to cover what they found. But I mean Atlas intel is no joke. They really have done solid work on the international front. There's also one other major election that I want everyone to know about and that's in the Netherlands. The Dutch are holding a parliamentary election this week on Wednesday, which I'm going to try to cover briefly on Thursday. Why does it matter? I mean, the Netherlands is a small country In Europe, it's not, you know, a major world power. Because in 2023, when they had their last election, the National Populist Party, founded by gitz villagers called the Freedom Party, came in a shocking first place. And the other center right parties. But first of a step, take a step back. The Netherlands has like 150 parties right there. Everyone starts a party and that one's like, what are you doing this week? You're starting a political party. And because there are so many parties and they give proportional representation, I think if you get over 33% or 4%, you get a seat in Parliament. So virtually everyone gets a seat in Parliament. It is the biggest participation trophy in. In the Western world. And they. Because that happens, though, you need to build coalitions, right? There's no majority party of a singular. No singular party gets a majority. So you have to have a coalition. So G. Wilders formed a coalition with the other center right parties. And he. But they didn't want him to be prime minister. They're like, no, you're too extreme. V L has been in Parliament for a very long time. I think he's the longest serving member of Parliament. So he conceded not to be prime minister so long as he got his way on strict immigration enforcement and strict immigration reforms. They broke their promises. So he left his party's party, left the government which forced the government to dissolve. They didn't have the votes to be a majority anymore. Now voters do. And this is true in America, this is true in Europe. This is true all over the world. Voters do not like political instability. They punish parties that create political instability. But they are also deeply unhappy with the state of immigration and the current levels. Immigration, the country. So what are they going to do? Polls suggest that Viller's party will still come in first place, but they will likely have a tougher time finishing this election like they finished the last election, like they're going to lose seats. That's what the poll suggests. But also, the polls were very wrong the last time. No one predicted they would do as well as they did last time. So, I mean, we're gonna have to wait until Thursday to really get our head around how the results shake out. But this could mean a referendum on national populism in Europe. Like, they're not ready to govern. Maloney is, you know, a unicorn. And you cannot in Basel, tell Brits and Frenchmen, Germans, you cannot invest in Le Pen's party now Bardella's party, or Nigel Farage or the AfD, because you can see in the Netherlands that they cannot govern. It's very interesting. They're going to try to make this a referendum on national populism and saying it's all just a flash in the pan. So worth paying attention to when it comes out on Wednesday. Okay, now let's talk about this country. We have some election turnout results. Now. These are not polls. This is how people are actually showing up in the early days vote. Some early patterns are starting to emerge across the country. Let's start with New Jersey. New Jersey is redder than it was in 2021, but bluer than it was in 2024. Now, I know that doesn't seem to make much sense, but let me explain. In 2021, early voting was kind of new. Early in person voting was not, had not been established as long as it had in other places as it had in New Jersey. So New Jersey voter Democrats, 16 point margin in who showed up in the first day of early voting this year, Their first day, they only had a three point margin. That three point margin though is still better than it was for Democrats in 2024 where they only had a 1 point margin. So you see what I'm saying. Republicans are worse than they were in 2024 when a lot of people showed up, but better than they were in 2021 when no one showed up. Overall, 68, 665 Democrats and 63, 178 Republicans. Four voted in person in the first two days of early voting. Between mail in voting, which has been going on for weeks, and early person voting. Democrats are going into the last week of this election with about a 200,000 raw vote lead. They've delivered 200,000 more ballots than Republicans. Is that impossible to overcome? Not necessarily. Remember, there's over 1.5 million more Republicans who can cast a ballot haven't. And we'll see how the independent vote splits. But Republicans are starting off this election about 5 points behind where they started in 2024 and about 10 points behind where they need to be. There are some places that are showing up, you know, like gangbusters for Republicans. Middletown Township is voting like mad for the gop. But those are the exceptions and not the rules. I must. I might also make a note that Republicans are showing up decently well in some important critical swing state legislative districts. Now, the only silver lining for Republicans in New Jersey right now is that voter enthusiasm is not even across the Democratic Party. You're seeing high turnout among white college educated areas, including Mikey Sherrill's home district over in Ocean county which is the reddest county in New Jersey. Democrats have about 80% of their overall early vote numbers from 2024. Republicans are about 70% in minority heavy districts, especially black majority districts. Turnout has not been exceptional though. What does this mean? It means that there's a, there's. I mean, for all the enthusiasm that pollster said Jack Chitterelli had going into this election, maybe they're just waiting for election day. But the fact that they're going to have to chase so many people on election day because they didn' bank their vote early ca is. Is cause for concern. It's cause for concern for Republicans. They're going to have to spend a lot more time and more money on election day making sure Republicans show up. They can win with 200,000 votes, but if it gets like 250, 280, 300,000 Democrat vote advantage, that's going to be tough to overcome. I mean, the early vote might make it such a place that it's over before began for Jack Chelli, Republicans really need to extremely, extremely maximize their early vote and bank those votes, which they haven't so far. Over in Virginia, things are looking better for Democrats as well. Fairfax county, which is a Democratic stronghold now, remember Virginia, no party registration. So we're talking about past electoral performances. Fairfax is a reliably strong Democratic area. They had a gangbuster weekend on Saturday. They were 91% of their 2024 turnout. This is not news you want to hear if you're win some Sears, but most importantly if you're Jason Miarez, who of the three statewide Republicans running has the best chance of winning. I'm going to bring up the silver lining again though for Miaras because I, I mean, I think it's basically over for Wins and Sears. But let's bring up the election for, for Miaras like New Jersey. A lot of black majority areas are showing low participation so far. The areas on Norfolk, Roanoke City and New. These are critical races not just for statewide races, but and state legislative races. But specifically because these are black areas. These are areas that more than likely would not leave J. Jones without a check next to his name on the ballot. Right. There may be some college educated areas that say, you know what, Jay Jones's comments about killing opponents and murdering children, it's just too much for me. I can't vote for Jason Mears, but I'm just going to skip the line. I'm not going to vote for anybody. I'm going to leave my conscience free. You're probably not going to see as much of that in the black areas, black majority areas. Jay Jones is the only black candidate running on the Democratic ticket this year. So the fact that they have low turnout says quite a bit actually. And if MIAR has managed to pull out a squeaker as some polls suggest, it is because turnout in black working class black areas is pretty low. I want to briefly dive into the California and New York City election. Over in California, Democrats have been dominating in the returning ballot ballads. Remember, California has universal mail in ballots, so everyone gets a ballot. California has received more than 2 million ballots so far returned. They voted over 2 million. And Democrats have dominated with 51% of all ballots returned while Republicans have been lagging. Democrats have a 19 point voter registration margin and a 22% return margin. So ideally you would like to see that Republican turnout so high that the democratic margin of 19 points is down to 16 or 15. But it's actually going up, especially after the no Kings rally. Democrats really have returned the ballots and high, high levels to redistrict Republicans, you know, basically out of existence in that state. Over in New York City, which releases New York City votes, registers people by party, but they don't release the party registration in the early vote, they release it by borough. Manhattan and Brooklyn are leading the way while Staten island and the Bronx are lagging behind. That's not good news for Andrew Cuomo. Here's the thing about New York City and I'm next segment is only all about New York. Early voting only started a couple years ago. New York didn't have early voting in person early voting for like most of my life. So back in 2021 there was very, very little in person early voting. So you're going to hear a lot of news stories about explosive returns compared to 2021. In 2021 it was so new, very few people did it. Now the Gotham has put out an interesting article about the election so far. So far, in the first two days of early in person voting, 164,190 New Yorkers returned to vote. They turned up to vote rather over the weekend. Voters over the age of 55 made up 50% of them. The electorate was a lot older, significantly older than the primary that gave Mandani his victory. Voters among voters between the ages of 25 to 34 made up only 16% of the early vote the first weekend. That's down nine points from where it was in the primary at this point. In the primary, voters between the ages of 25 and 34 were the largest single group of people casting ballots now, they're in a pretty distant third place. Furthermore, voters between the ages of 18 and 24 cast in, in the primary, they cast about half as many ballots as voters over the age of 75. In so far in the general, voters of the age of 75 have cast three times as many ballads as voters under the age of 24. So there's a mixed bag. I mean, where the votes are coming from is very favorable to Mandani. The age of the voters is very favorable to Cuomo. We won't know. I mean, it's Democrats, so it's all, I mean, it depends on how they're splitting. Cuomo is seeing some of his strongest areas, like the Upper east and Upper west side, coming out with big numbers. But other places like heavily black, heavily Latino districts in the Bronx and in Western Queens are, sorry, Eastern Queens rather, are just not showing up. The South Bronx has a 10th, 1/10 of the showing as the Upper east side of Manhattan. And they have, they've equal populations. It's been done by assembly district, which is population wise. So the college educated white vote turning out big, big numbers, probably both from Andani and for Cuomo, the minority areas that Cuomo really needs, he is lagging pretty significantly. And this is what you're seeing in New Jersey, this is what you're seeing in Virginia, this is what you're seeing in probably California. Working class voters are not excited about this election. And if it's a question because Trump's name is on the ballot, Trump's name is likely never going to be on the ballot again. That's a problem for Republicans. It also becomes a problem for Democrats when you look at the black vote. The fact that the black vote is down in all three states from where they hoped it would be maybe gives Democrats a little heartburn, a tiny bit of heartburn from the hopes that they had of Cuomo pulling an upset or for New Jersey being closer than they, than they projected. They want to make sure the black vote shows up, and so far it hasn't. So that's the trend in all three states. College educated, especially white, older voters up and big numbers, the no kings group are showing up. Democrats are showing up, but working class people, especially blacks, are not. And Republicans have a lot of catching up to do. If they want to be competitive in New Jersey, if they want to save Jason Miaras in Virginia, if they want to make New California's election competitive and, you know, make sure Mandani stays under 50% of the vote and possibly Cuomo pulls up an upset. They need to start showing up and showing up very, very soon. Next up, I want to talk to you guys about the mayor's race because I've been thinking about it and you know what, Curtis Lewa and Andrew Cuomo, they have both fumbled royally and in my opinion neither one deserved to win. And I'm going to talk about that coming up next.
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Ryan Graduski
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Ryan Graduski
Okay, so I have been thinking about the New Year's mayor's race. I'm from New York. If you guys couldn't tell that by basically every everything about me, I There's a reason I can't print out my Rs, and it's not because I have a lisp. I I But I'm from New York my whole life. My fans been New York for generations and the thought of Mandani winning is horrifying. He is a failed theater kid, the most annoying people on the planet, and I would love nothing more than to wake up after election Day and say Mandani lost. But Cuomo and Curtis Lewis do not deserve to win. And I wrote about this for my national populist newsletter, and I want to talk to you guys about it. The disgraced former governor Andrew Cuomo believed he had this election in the bag from the start. And other Democrats, capable Democrats who are managerial. I want to I don't want to say moderate, but they're managerial. They can manage a city. They stayed out of the race because Cuomo was supposed to enter Catherine Gonzalez, who's not my favorite person in the world. I don't know if she'd be the best mayor, but she's capable of managing a city. I believe she never ran because Cuomo had this thing locked up. And the truth is, as I thought about it, Andrew Cuomo has never faced a tough election in his entire life. His only competitive primary was in the 2006 Race for Attorney general, where he faced a kind of a lazy New York politician named Mark Green, who he beat by over 20 points and he was handed the gubernatorial nomination on a silver platter. Democrats didn't challenge him the first time. And when they did challenge him for his subsequent reelections, he beat his opponents by 30 points. His closest election to a Republican, which was in 2014, he won by 14 points. So Cuomo was able to build a narrative that he was this tough on nails, hard political animal who was Italian and he was like mob boss. He was gonna run you through. He's gon to exhaust you. And really what he was this whole time is this Nepo baby who was easily intimidated by progressives and centrists alike. He didn't run for president, which he talked about to his advisors and they repeated to everybody. Everybody in this town thought he was going for President. He didn't run though, because he was afraid of Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. Two, quote, unquote moderate Democrats. They're not in the far left. And despite beating progressives in every primary race and he consistently moved to the left on policy and endorsed their candidates down ballot because he was wanting to win them over because he was afraid of a challenge instead of saying, screw you, I'm going to destroy your field. I'm going to, I'm going to make the threshold to make an official party, which is what he could do. And he did a little bit basically to oust the working family party. He didn't do that. For decades, Andrew Cuomo was the governor with no clothes. And it took Zora Mandani to point out that his ass was shown. I mean, it's crazy. So it comes at a surprise when you hear about it, but not at a surprise when you think about it, that at 67, he's incapable of doing the. Doing something he's never done before, which is campaigning. I mean, it's really shocking how he's dropped the ball. Most basic campaign strategies, like buying opposition research. I don't know if he didn't do it, but I highly doubt that we're just hearing about all this Zoron stuff for the first time, weeks before the election. Had he bought it, he would have blasted that. And he's always thought that he could make this election a winning election for him. If it was a two man race, if it was just him versus Zoron that required Eric Adams and Curtis Levo to drop out, meaning he would need Republicans to vote for him. That's the thing with Curtis. He has the Republican line and he thought, Cuomo thought that he could be, he could gain that Republican support by just not being Zorova. Here's the crazy Andrew Cuomo. And I know this is hard to believe if you're not a New Yorker and if you're not someone with a long memory. Andrew Cuomo, when he first ran for governor, cast himself as the man who could work across the aisle. Remember in 2010, when he first ran, Republicans controlled the New York State Senate. He had to work with Republicans, and he delivered on things like property tax freezes and tax cuts for small businesses that they. That they advance while delivering things like gay marriage legalization for Democrats. Then come 2018, when they had the progressive wave and Cynthia Nixon challenging him, and Cuomo abandoned everything, every moderate position he possibly had out the window. And then Covid happened and forget about it. He was like a straight dictator. He went completely crazy. But that old, that sense memory for that Cuomo who could be a man for all seasons, a man for all people, a man who worked across the aisle, it hasn't reemerged. That whole get back on the bicycle. Andrew Cuomo just never showed up. And Republicans in New York City, they're starving for victories, right? They would take crumbs from Andrew Cuomo. So if he sat there and said, hey, Republicans in New York City, I will endorse your city council candidates running for reelection. I will endorse the Common Sense Coalition, which is a bipartisan group of Democrats and Republicans who support things like tough on crime laws and specialized high schools. He could have. He could acknowledge mistakes he made during COVID or apologize for the fact that he said pro lifers don't belong in New York State. He could have done anything, and he did nothing. He thought, hey, I am not Zoron, and that will be enough for Republicans. And he is learning the hard way that that is not true, that Republicans need something for you to vote for them, not just vote against somebody. And I just think that maybe Andrew Cuomo was never a talented politician. Maybe he just happened to have a D behind his name in a state that elects Democrats, except when the moon is full and hell freezes over, which in New York happens every 30 to 40 years. And, you know, I've been part of losing campaigns. They suck. It's awful to be part of a losing campaign. But Cuomo is going to end this campaign not saying, hey, I left it all on the. On the field. I did everything I could. He's gonna left them. He's gonna lose his campaign without even putting his cleats on. He could have done so much more. So on that front, he deserves to lose he 100% deserves to lose. Now, Curtis Leela, on the other hand, also deserves to lose because having worked in Republican politics for as long as I have, especially in New York City, you. It's a very small circle. You know, I've met Curtis a bunch of times, starting in 2020, I think with the first time that he ran where he earned just 28% of the vote. Now, since that last election in 2021, he never really stopped running for mayor. He's been running for five years. But despite running for half a decade with the full backing of the gop, he had no primary challenge, Right? And he's been running in a state that has substantially moved towards Republicans in the subsequent last three presidential elections. Think of this. In 2016, Trump in New York City got 17% of the vote. In 2020, he got 22.7% of the vote. And in 2024, he got 30.5% of the vote. So he went from 17 to almost 31. So despite Curtis running in a state, in a city that is moving substantially to the right, running for five years longer than anybody else is running, he only cracked 20% in two polls out of the dozens taken since May. And, you know, that's not right or fair or, you know, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not saying that, you know, polls are everything, but for many New Yorkers, whether they are right or wrong in it. Curtis Lewa comes off cartoonish. He's got the beret on and he's has the accent of a New York of a bygone era, a New York that I love, but a New York of a bygone era nonetheless. And it's tough to hear, but he never did the things you would need to do to start cracking into the 20s or 30s and really gaining traction. Sliwa has said, and I have independently confirmed, that he was offered $10 million to drop out of the race and promised millions in seed money for, in for. To build an international security business for the Guardian Angels. He turned all that down. He turned down the idea of having generational wealth for his children. He dealt, you know, security for himself, all for this doomed race. What he should have done was not only, in my opinion, accept that, but he should have sat there and said, I will do this. If you secure more promises for Republicans running for office, get Cuomo and his allies in the unions and his big money allies to pour money for Republican candidates running for City Council and for local office in the city, give them a fighting chance for the first time ever. Republicans running for council are constantly looked up, down upon and constantly ignored. And there's a real opportunity for Republicans to make gains this year. There's at least three seats I can think of and actually if Republicans actually had a real party mode moving, they'd have a chance probably at five seats in the City Council. And those would be people to push back against Mandani if he were to become mayor, which he likely is, right? So he could have actually used his immense leverage to help the city's GOP instead of making it about himself. He could have passed the baton on to, you know, a dozen Republicans running for local office. Given the Republican county parties, which are functionally have very little money, real money, he could have made all these deals and instead he's saying he stuck with his integrity, which that's great, but your integrity plus $2.90 will get you on the subway in New York, right? This leverage he could have built for Republicans is probably a one time thing and he threw it all away. And that as a consultant makes my blood boil. It just makes my blood boil. I want better for the Republican Party of New York City than nominee for mayor that wants for them. And that's what's tragic. Okay, on to Ask me anything that's coming up next.
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- [38:09]
Ryan Graduski
Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything. If you guys want part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryan@NumbersGame podcast.com that's Ryan Numberspluralgame podcast.com love getting these questions. I have a ton to go through so I'm going to do two today. First question comes from Tristan. He would love to hear some talk about the VRA section too. Possibly, you know, because they have the SCOTUS decision coming out about it and there's hearings about it. What? But let me go into so Section 2 of the Voting Rights act, which was of 1965, prohibits the, quote, voting qualifications or prerequisite to vote or standard practice or procedure by a state or political subdivision that results in a denial or abridgment of the right of any citizen to vote on account of race or color. Importantly, in 1982, Congress amended Section 2 to eliminate the requirement approving discriminatory intent in many cases and instead allow suits based on discrimination effect right the vote dilution. So even if the intent is not there, but the result is explicitly discriminatory in, in practice, then therefore it's against the Section 2 of the Voting Rights act and that's the part that is being challenged. The law allows challenges based on effect, not just intent, which raises questions about how it's grounded in the constitution via the 14th and 15th Amendment. The Louisiana vs. Calias case, which is the one the Supreme Court is hearing right now, sets the re argument of whether Section 2 itself remains constitutional because of those changes In a redistricting contest, some justices have signaled openness to narrowing section 2 scope. For example, limiting to how long race conscious districting can continue. Courts use the totality of of circumstances tests guided by a set of factors, sometimes called the Senate factors, including history, discrimination or racial polarization, or whether a minority candidates have been elected. There's a debate really whether Section 2 allows for claims purely under the intent theory and only under a result theory, I. E. Like the result is discriminatory because a Democrat wasn't elected. That's a really big part of it. I think it looks like the Supreme Court is going to at least, at the very least limit the Voting Rights Act. So that may say, hey, in the alley in the redistricting of Louisiana and Alabama, the two black majority districts drawn for Democrats because they have to be drawn so Democrats can win, is unconstitutional. They should be stricken down. And in the future redistricting guidelines are like this. And if they go full ham, they may sit there and say the VR8 section 2 is entirely unconstitutional at this point. You know, it maybe had had an intent back in the 1960s. America's demographics are not like they were in the 1960s. Therefore, strike the whole thing down. If the whole thing is struck down, Republicans in the south, in the Deep south especially, are going to go on a binge redistricting and it would result in Republicans gaining probably 12 to 14 more seats. Right. They could redistrict Memphis, they could redistrict Alabama and Louisiana, they could redistrict all the blue states. In Mississippi, the one blue state, Mississippi, but Georgia and in Florida, there's just a lot on the table there. If they strike this down, which, I mean, we'll see if they do or not, but that's really what it's about. It's about the Fact that is there intent? If there's no intent involved with indiscrimination, does the law still stand? Okay, next question comes from Frank. He says, hi, Ryan. I have a question about immigration I've wondered about for a long time. I've heard before that a significant portion, maybe even most of illegal aliens in the US Are people who overstay their visa. I've driven in Canada before, and I believe I got some sort of permission at the border to cross over. I'm not sure that's considered a visa. It's not considered a visa. I assume that we do that for people who drive up from Mexico. We do do that for people who drive up from Mexico. If a Mexican drove to the U.S. told a border agent that he'd be here for a weekend and stay for 10 years, would that be considered a visa overstay? Now, like you're talking about truck drivers. They usually have a trucking license that they are permitted with. That's not a visa overstay. And they rarely, by the way, overstay their visas. They sometimes bring illegals into their trucks, but they don't overstay their visas much. Liberals whine about visa overstays as if they have genuine doctors who just forgot to renew their student visas after graduating from Harvard. But I wondered what truly just. What. What are truly just visitors who never go back. Okay, so mainly overstay visas are people who come in through either tourist visas, business student visas, or exchange visas or temporary work visas. Right there. Those are the ones big. Those are the big ones. Tourist visas are a lot of them. People who say they're going to be here for a week to tour, and then they just never go back. Nearly 40% of all illegal immigrants who came in 2023 are visas overstays. So about 500,000. The largest. The largest countries come from outside of Latin America. When you hear about people being crossed off at the border, those are mostly Latin American and Mexican immigrants. Those are not everybody. Some places, like India, for example, have a lot of these overseas. I think 19,000, the number seventh overall. So in 2023, which the last numbers that I have, they're about. They're about 500,000 people who were visa overstays and about 860,000 who crossed the border. That means in 10, all of New illegal immigrants are visa overstays. As I said, you know, India ranks number seven, but they're not. And it's the highest non Latin American or Caribbean country that is visa overstays. The over. But it's funny which countries have disproportionately a large percentage of visa overstays. So the number one country for visa overstays actually is the nation of Chad over in Africa. Almost 50% of people who get get a visa to come to the United States from Chad cross the become overstays. Countries like Equatorial guinea is 33%, Manamar is 33%, Haiti is 31%, Congo is 29, Sudan is 25%. Countries that you would think of like with large illegal alien populations like Mexico. Mexico is only 1 1/2% of their illegal populations visa overstays. It's most people who come across the border. So that's the really the difference. So no it's not a majority of people who are here illegally is left very, very very high percentage. I think at one point in the arts it was a majority, but it was very briefly and then under Biden of course that completely changed. The new visa overstays though are a significant portion at 40% and they are mostly tourists, student or business visas that were not renewed. Anyway, thank you for listening to Show. I hope you got a lot out of it. I will be back on Thursday. Check out that episode and if you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app. Apple Podcast Wherever you get your podcast.
- [45:27]
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You ever feel that deep pull to the land to know it? To build something that lasts that itch for your own wild country? Well, it ain't just a daydream in 2025. It matters more than ever. Whether you're a lifelong hunter or just starting out, dreaming of land to explore to leave something real, or there is a trailhead where you can start. It's called land.com the biggest online network for rural property. Find the right agent and explore everything from timber tracks to ranches. Get the tools you need to buy that dream generational property. Stop dreaming about it and head to land.com it's your place to find your open space.
- [47:05]
Ryan Graduski
From the very beginning, I heart has believed in me. Even now I still get excited when I hear one of my songs playing on the radio. Thank you iheartradio for honoring truth I've fought for in my music.
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