Ryan Graduski (21:17)
All right, we are back. And the last thing that I wanted to bring up to you as far as the data goes, as far as my autistic, my autistic marathon goes, is there is. I know the election was like, you know, months and months ago and everyone's kind of passed it, but there is three organizations that do post election reviews that are super insightful for describing and analyzing what actually happened, what actually went through. I mean, the exit polls came out, but like the exit polls are wrong most of the time. So there's three organizations. There's David Shore, who is, you know, very smart, but I think he's a liberal. I don't think he wants to be on with like the Bieber guy, but who knows? I'm a big fan still. I think that he's a genius. His stuff came out a month ago. That's where I said that 75%, according to his analysis, 75% of 18 to 21 year old white men in this country voted for Trump. It was the largest group that voted for Trump of any demographic. That was his data that came out a few months ago. Then there's the Pew Research Research Center. It's coming out in a few weeks to months. I'm looking forward to that. I will talk about that. I know everyone will be done with it by that point, but I will talk about it because I can't get enough. And then the last is an organization called Catalyst Now. They have been doing this since 2012 and they are out with their report. It came out on Monday. It is a blockbust and it breaks apart a lot of what Democrats have excused for Kamala Harris's loss. So there's six points I want to go through. The first being Democrats said that they had a turnout problem. Right. You hear this over and over and over again. Oh, if Omar Pillars turned out, they would have. He would have won. He would have won. Shore said that was incorrect. What the Catalyst information says is that not only was turnout, yes, turnout was lower nationwide, but turnout was higher in the swing states. So he they got the turnout that they wanted in swing states. The swing state participation rate was over 70%, which was higher than the 64% nationwide. So there was this excessive higher amount of turnout in places like Georgia and Arizona and Nevada where they wanted to have massive turnout. They got there, but it didn't matter because Trump had won over persuasion. People wanted him because they were persuaded to vote for him, and they were not persuaded to vote for Kamala. Secondly, turnout wasn't the same everywhere. This is something that Democrats are right about, but it's not super coherent. Turnout was down nationwide from 2020 to 2024. Right. But it wasn't even across the board. Among white voters, it was down 1%. Among blacks, it was down 5.6%. Among Latinos, 3% and among as Asians, 6.7%. When you go into the swing states, however, black turnout was down 1.6%. Among black men, 2%. Now, I want you to go back to old media interviews in your head if you remember them. Like, there's Van Jones, who I was on CNN with a few times, and he was a very nice person. I'm not behind the scenes, gentlemen. But he would say all the time that there is this push to get black men to support Kamala, to get the first woman the finish line, the Charlemagne, the God did the same exact thing. They were all sitting there and saying, there's this push to get black men. We're going to get black men, we're going to get black men. Didn't get black men. In fact, in swing states, even where they did the solstice polls, everything, Black male participation dropped 2%. But guess what? Black female participation dropped as well. Black female participation dropped by 1% in swing states. Now, aside from Wisconsin, 1% wouldn't have made up the difference. I don't even think what black women make up 10 to make up the 1%. So it doesn't really matter. Black women weren't that interested in Kamala either. The narrative that black Americans were not sold on Kamala as like being a brown, a glass of shatterer, the same way they were over Obama, let's say, is true. Trump mentioned it was called a racist for it. But even like Janet Jackson was saying it, people were saying it all over the all over that there was a large percentage of black America who were not sold that she was part of their community and they were not needing to go vote for her. White Support was up 1.5%, but it was mostly driven by white women. White women did show up in big numbers. It was up for white men as well. Latinos showed up in increased numbers as well. Okay, that's, that's, that's important. Second point of the entire thing, the racial breakdown, because the white number had decreased the lowest amount nationwide and increased the highest in swing states, was unchanged from 2020. Now there's this constant notion that, oh, you know, we' whites are decreasing in every electorate. Didn't happen in 2020. It didn't happen in 2016 much either. It was basically the same in 2016, but it didn't happen in 2024. But the one thing that did happen with the racial and education breakdown that is extremely important is for the very first time ever, as far as I can go back, and this is especially of the Catalyst research, non college educated whites were no longer the largest voting in the Democratic coalition. They have been surpassed by college educated whites. Believe it or not, even though the spokespeople for the Democratic Party absolutely hate non college educated white people and trash talk them constantly, they were still about a third of all Kamala voters. But they were almost 40%. They were 37% of all Biden supporters versus 24%. Sorry, not Biden. Obama 2012. They were almost. They were 37% of all Obama voters and only 31% of all comma voters. Kamala and the Democratic Party, because of their aggressive attacks against working class white people, have shed 20% of their non college educated white voting base, 20% of the largest single demographic in the country. So while they increase their numbers among college educated whites and lost a lot of non college educated whites, they've also lost a lot of black support over time because of declining participation rates, especially going back to Obama. And they're stagnant with Latinos because as, even though Latinos are growing in population, they are not increasing their size and support for the Democratic Party. It's gone down significantly since Obama. One other caveat that I thought was really, really interesting, 20% of people who voted for Trump were non white. That is the biggest single Republican candidacy ever as far as a minority constituency. One in five. That's never happened before, not even for George W. Bush. It is, it is the multiracial working class that a lot of people have sat there and talked about. Okay, third point. There is this big notion that like white women are the end of the world and they're all Karens. This is an ocean among like the right. It's all white women who are, you know, the, the ones pushing all the progressive agenda and they are pushing the Democratic Party to the left. White women, however, voted more for Trump in this election than they voted for him in the last election. Trump won white women in this country by 52 to 48. We got catalyst, probably gets rid of all the third party things, so they make it even. 50, 50, 50 to 48. Among college educated white women, Trump actually improved by 1 point from 2020. He actually did better among college educated white women after I don't know how many times I was on the CNN panel hearing about fascism and abortion rights and abortion rights and abortion rights, and these were going to move all these women over. He did one point better. All of that rhetoric was nonsense. All of that rhetoric was complete and total nonsense among white men. Among white men without a college degree, Harris only got 30% of the vote. Now think about it. White men are. White people are about 60% of the country. White men are 30%. Whites without a college degree are 20%. The single largest block. Maybe whites. White women without a college degree are Also similar, but 20%, 1 in 5 voters, they've lost 20% of their support, more than 20% of their support with that voting base since 2012. Super significant in the white vote. And why the white vote has. The white vote has been basically flat though for the last couple of election cycles at 42% support for Democrats. And that is because college, college educated whites have typically been moving to the left, although in this last election they moved to the right. White men with a college degree moved six points to the right. I know I'm throwing out a lot of numbers. I will try to rein it back and get back to the narrative. Okay, minority men, this is where the popular vote win happened, right? It wasn't just. I mean, making a Republican president is like baking a cake. The batter is the white vote. You can't win with if you don't get large sport with the white vote. The minority vote is the cream filling. The, the, the, the. I don't know, the. What, what, what do you put on the cake? Everything. All the trimmings is the minority vote. You can have a cake, but you can't have the trimmings without the minority vote. Okay, so that's the pop thermo win. Among black men, 95% of whom voted for Barack Obama, almost 100% universal. 95% of black men voted for Barack Obama. 9% voted for Kamala Harris, 99%. Among battleground black voters, it was 84. So they did do a better job in the battlegrounds where they Spent more resources. But in the nation as a whole, 79. If it's 79 nationwide as a whole, and you're taking a place like Georgia and North Carolina, in other places like Mississippi, Alabama, probably Texas has a decent black population. You're talking about, you know, New York. It's probably, you know, maybe a third. Trump probably got a third of the black vote. If you take out that portion among black women, that vote was stagnant. That vote is, is very hardly cemented. It was 90% of the black women voted for Trump this time. 90% voted last time. Maybe he won, maybe won by half a point or less than half a point, but it wasn't significant. Black men, though, it is a gigantic drop, 95 to 79among black women from 2012. Always it's a seven point drop. But among black men, 16, 16 points. It is substantial. Among black men under the age of 30, it's 75%. One in four black men under the age of 30 voted for Donald Trump. That is not a small, insignificant, minor group of people. That is not a tiny fraction of a coalition. That's 1 in 4 of the Democratic Party's base. Among black women under 30, it was 88%. So it was so younger black people in general, but mostly younger black men. One in four versus. Go back 20 years ago, go back 10 years ago to Barack Obama. It was like one in 25 were voting for, for the Republican. Now it's one in four. This is a crazy, crazy, crazy shift. Okay, go to Latinos now, because this is wild. Trump won. This is the second time this has been confirmed. But this is. This proves it. This proves to be true. Trump won Latino men. I think George W. Bush may have won it, but the exit polling was really, really bad at the time, so you can't really trust it. But Trump won Latino men by six points. That is insane. He only lost the overall Latino vote by 8. This is a group. Once again. Hillary won them by 40 in the overall head to head. According to Catalyst. She won them 70, 30. Harris won them 54 to 46. And the craziest thing was they asked them across the ages, they said, among ages, right? How old are you? How are you voting among the ages? Young Latinos, millennial Latinos, Zoomer Latinos. 57% voted for Harris. It dips down to 52 for Gen Xers and early boomers and then goes back up to 57 when you got to late gen, sorry, late boomers and silent generation. So old Latinos and young Latinos at 57 all the middle of 52. What does that show you? That shows you that the reconfiguration, the realignment of minorities is universal. Now this isn't true for black voters. Black voters. There is a substantial drop when you get younger, right. You go to older black voters. It's still over 90%. They're immovable. The only way Republicans will win those voters. They can't. I'm just going to say something else, but they can't. Those voters will be Democrats till the day they die. It is the only. It is their natural born inheritance. There is no moving older black voters. We can just give up on trying to. Whoever we have is all we're going to have of the older black group. But at the younger group it's like a 13 point overall drop when you include men and women, right. Latinos, it's across the board. The only group that is getting substantially more Democratic as you get younger are Asians. And I want to get to Asians in one second. Among Asians still Democratic support for. Among Asians among. For Barack Obama 2012, 71% support for Kamala Harris 2024, 55%. Another 16 point drop. This is a male revolution. It's a male driven revolution. So those are the important things that it's the racial breakdown that I think is very important. It does substantiate Shore's earlier conversation. It substantiates what we thought that this was a male dominated movement and that the women are moving. But you have to go with the context of it's not all white women. In fact, the majority of white women still voted for Republicans still voted for Donald Trump and there is increased support among non white women who are not black. Black women are just immovable. And college educated women, college educated white women rather still move towards Trump although they gave the majority of their support to Kamala Harris. Let's. I'm gonna land this plane very soon, I promise. Stick with me if you're still with me. Right. They gave a demographic breakdown. The only group. Wait two things. One, one, for the first time in my lifetime, first time Catalyst has ever seen this or not my lifetime. I'm kind of old now, but first time that Catalyst has reported this. Republicans won non college educated voters by double digits. First time ever. Right? Huge. Among non college educated whites overall, they won them by 28 points. That's the same number he won them by in 2016. This is a general movement among a cementing of that base non college educated white voters that you have to have to have to Hear this point. It is so essential. Non college educated white voters were the only group in America demographically education and race based right to give a majority of their support for Donald Trump Trump. College educated whites didn't. Blacks didn't of any of any college education. Latinos didn't. Asians didn't. Others didn't. It was solely, solely based on the vote of the non college educated white that gave a majority of their support to Donald Trump. I say that not because I want to emphasize that one group is better than the other or more loyal than the other. I want to say that because when we have conversations around what could the Republican Party do more for black voters or Latino voters or this group or that group or women or whatnot, I think it's very important to understand and to remind ourselves who is bringing home the votes to get a Republican elected. It is non college educated white voters. What is the Trump administration? What are Republicans, Congressional Republicans? What are they? What are the Republican governors? What are they doing for them? For all the endless dribble we have to hear constantly about, what are we doing to sit there and shed 1 percentage more among black women? What are we doing to deliver support for our voters, whether that be tax cuts, whether that be opioid relief because their population has been devastated with the opioid effect. Pro family stuff. What are we doing for those voters on all those issues issues that should be the question Republicans should take from this is wow, these are the only people give us majority support. What are we doing for them has to be emphasized. Okay, landing the plane once again back to the age range thing. Kamala Harris lost support among every single age range in the country. I had said this a while ago that these polls were coming out New York Times, Sienna especially where Harris winning seniors by like 20 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and she was going to win the senior. The number of polls that said she was going to win the senior vote were, were out of control. They were out of control. They were completely insane. And I didn't believe it for a second. Turns out it wasn't true. Senior citizens voted majority for Trump and actually increased their support for Donald Trump. Among Trump also won every age range of white voters. White voters between the ages of 18 to 29 voted for Trump by two points. This was a group that voted for Joe Biden. Biden. They had moved eight points to the right for Donald Trump. This is once again goes back to what David Shore was saying where he said young people under 21 who had lived during the worst of COVID were the most radical right wing. So maybe he was onto something right there. Double digit support and swing for Trump came from every bracket of Latino voters. Over 20 points among young Latinos, double digits among black voters under the age of 45 and a 20 point margin. A 20 point swing towards Trump among Asians in that category. That's also very important. And why it's important one is seniors are changing, right? People, people have come up to me a lot and say, what's going on with the senior? But why are seniors becoming more liberal? They are not becoming more liberal. The seniors you have in your head as seniors are probably like your grandparents or their friends who may or may not have passed away way Right. An increased likelihood. That's what comes with age. It's sad. I'm, you know, not wishing anything, but that is what the truth is. Archie Bunker has passed away. Meathead is a senior. Henry Fonda, Fonda has passed away. Jane Fonda is a senior. The liberal baby boomers are in their 70s and 80s. The greatest generation. The people who worked for Richard Nixon, the people who worked against the counterculturalists, the ones that you were probably were seniors in your mind in the early 2000s. If you were like me, you're a millennial and you know, you watch little giants growing up. Those people, the World War II veterans that you see in the stands who are rooting on the peewee football team, they're almost all gone. And it's the liberals who were middle aged at the time who are part of the counterculture that are like of the Joe Biden's era or a little younger, a little older, who are the ones who are seniors now nonetheless. And yet still they didn't vote for a majority for Kamala Harris, which was a narrative the media was pushing endlessly. It's a narrative that David Shore pushed, which I disagreed with his data. I agree with the Catalyst data. Those are the narratives worth dispelling, worth breaking down. I had to go into it. I know that was long winded. I know that that was probably a lot for people to listen to, but thank you for hearing all the numbers because it's a numbers game. Okay, so this is the part of the podcast where I talk about I do know questions, ask me anything segment. Ryan, email me. Ryan. Numbers game podcast.com ryanumbers plural numbers game podcast.com. you could tweet me. I'm going to put a pin tweet where I'll just take questions from Twitter if no one can take the time to email me. But it's fine. You guys send me questions. I love to answer them on literally anything. That's what I usually do. But this week I came across a piece of gossip that I have to tell you guys about. I haven't tweeted this. I haven't talked about it. I'm saving it specifically for you. It's about a member of Congress. It is some of the wild stories I've ever heard. It is George Santos on steroids. I'll be back with it after these messages.