Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind President Trump's Latest Polling Data
Release Date: May 22, 2025
Host: Ryan Graduski
Publisher: iHeartPodcasts

Introduction

In this solo episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, host Ryan Graduski delves deep into the latest polling data surrounding President Donald Trump. Titled "It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind President Trump's Latest Polling Data," Graduski analyzes recent shifts in Trump’s approval ratings, explores insightful polls from New York State, and examines post-election data to uncover emerging trends that could shape the 2024 election landscape.

Trump's Poll Bounce

[02:40]
Graduski begins by addressing the recent uptick in President Trump's polling numbers. A month prior, Trump faced significant declines in approval across several reputable public polls amidst fears of an impending recession. However, contrary to these pessimistic forecasts, the economy showcased resilience with reduced wholesale prices and a steady 3% wage growth, contributing positively to Trump’s standings.

Notable Insights:

• Aggregate Approval Rating: Graduski cites seven recent polls from firms such as Insider Advantage, Morning Consult, and Emerson, noting an average net approval rating for Trump has risen to +1 point from a previous -4 points [02:40].
• Demographic Shifts: A significant portion of the rally comes from men across all racial lines, suggesting that previous economic fears have subsided, bolstering Trump’s appeal among male voters.

Notable Quote:
"If Trump can now come out of in the next few weeks with a deal, a trade deal, because he's got a couple in the works with the EU and several other countries... that would be a nice news cycle if either the Ukraine or Israel stopped fighting." [07:15]

Graduski speculates that media focus shifting from Trump to President Biden’s health issues and a non-occurring recession have allowed voters to reassess Trump more favorably. Additionally, successful economic indicators have rejuvenated Republican sentiments, crucial as the party navigates legislative challenges like tax bills and budget passes.

New York State Polling Data

[10:30]
The discussion transitions to a revealing poll from Siena College in New York State, a traditionally liberal stronghold. Graduski highlights two pivotal questions that shed light on emerging conservative sentiments:

1. Assistance in Deporting Illegal Immigrants:
   • 45% of New Yorkers support the state government assisting the Trump administration in deporting illegal immigrants.
   • Demographic Breakdown:
     • Republicans: Near unanimity in support.
     • Democrats: 25% support among Democrats, indicating a fracture within the party.
     • Independents: A majority (51%) favor assistance.
     • Gender: Men (50%) vs. Women (43%) show strong support.
     • Ethnicity: White residents (50%) lead support, with significant backing among Hispanics (41%).

Notable Quote:
"These are people that should never be aligning with the Republican Party... on these issues that are the most identifiable with a single party and their governance, you have overwhelming numbers on the side of the conservatives." [15:45]

2. Ban on Transgender Students in Girls' Sports:
   • 46% of New Yorkers advocate for a total outright ban on transgender girls (biological males) participating in girls' sports.
   • Demographic Breakdown:
     • Democrats: 33% support, challenging the party's progressive stance.
     • Independents: 54% back the ban.
     • Gender: Men (50%) and women (44%) are almost evenly split, revealing internal divisions.
     • Location: Suburban areas and certain ethnic groups show majority support for the ban.

Graduski emphasizes that these stances on contentious social issues are driving a realignment of voters, particularly moving some traditionally Democratic voters to the right due to dissatisfaction with the party’s governance on immigration and transgender policies.

Notable Quote:
"If the Democratic Party continues to be associated with these bad governing policies... then I would expect places like New Jersey, California, New York... to become swing states." [19:30]

Post-Election Analysis: Catalyst Now and Demographic Shifts

[25:00]
Delving into post-election analysis, Graduski references data from Catalyst Now and insights from David Shore, highlighting substantial demographic shifts that influenced the election outcome:

1. Voter Turnout and Demographics:

   • Overall Turnout: Nationally down, but higher in swing states (over 70% vs. 64% nationwide).
   • Minority Voters: Significant declines among Black (5.6%) and Asian (6.7%) voters, yet Trump garnered a historic 20% support from non-white voters, the highest ever for a Republican candidate.

2. Non-College Educated White Voters:

   • Support Surge: For the first time, non-college educated white voters became the largest demographic supporting Trump, surpassing college-educated whites.
   • Shift Details: Graduski notes a 28-point lead for Trump among non-college educated whites, mirroring his 2016 performance.

3. Gender and Education Dynamics:

   • White Women: Contrary to popular media narratives, white women increased their support for Trump, with college-educated white women moving 1 point right from 2020 [38:50].
   • Younger Voters: Among younger demographics, particularly Black men under 30, Trump saw a 16-point drop from previous elections, indicating a volatile base.

Notable Quote:
"It was solely based on the vote of the non college educated white that gave a majority of their support to Donald Trump." [30:20]

4. Minority Voter Realignment:

   • Black Men: Dropped from 95% support for Obama to 79% for Biden, with a notable 16-point decline.
   • Latino Voters: Trump won Latino men by 6 points, reversing previous trends where Democrats dominated this group.

5. Ages and Voting Patterns:

   • Seniors: Contrary to media claims, seniors did not overwhelmingly support Kamala Harris; instead, a majority leaned towards Trump.
   • Young Voters: Younger Latinos and Asians showed a significant shift towards Republican support, with Trump gaining double-digit support in these groups.

Notable Quote:
"It is so essential. Non college educated white voters were the only group in America... to give a majority of their support to Donald Trump." [35:10]

Graduski underscores that these shifts indicate a male-driven revolution within the electorate, with non-college educated white voters being the cornerstone of Republican support. He warns that without addressing the needs and concerns of this demographic, the Democratic Party risks further losing ground.

Gossip Segment: The George Santos Controversy

[42:49]
In the final segment, Graduski shifts gears to discuss an explosive and salacious story about a Republican member of Congress, purportedly George Santos. He outlines a series of serious allegations, including:

• Personal Conduct: Reports of domestic disputes and misleading personal histories, including exaggerated military service.
• Financial Troubles: Claims of massive, potentially non-American debt and dubious business dealings.
• Religious Manipulation: Allegations of attempts to convert political figures to Islam, despite Santos professing Christian beliefs.
• Political Scandals: Connections to unindicted conspirators of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, painting a picture of deceit and manipulation.

Graduski hints at upcoming interviews with journalists uncovering these stories, promising listeners a deep dive into what could be one of the most shocking political scandals of recent times.

Notable Quote:
"If Donald Trump was not in office right now, this would be the front page of every single newspaper. This would be George Santos on crack." [45:50]

Conclusion

Ryan Graduski wraps up the episode by inviting listeners to engage via email or Twitter for future questions and hints at more intriguing guests in upcoming episodes. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the numerical shifts within the electorate to navigate the ever-evolving political landscape.

Final Quote:
"It is a numbers game." [52:13]

Key Takeaways

• Economic Stability Boosts Trump: Improved economic indicators have positively influenced Trump's polling numbers.
• Shifting Demographics in NY: New York State shows unexpected conservative leanings on immigration and transgender policies.
• Non-College Educated Whites Crucial for GOP: This demographic has become the backbone of Republican support, overshadowing previous voter bases.
• Minority Realignment: Significant shifts among Black and Latino voters indicate changing political alliances, particularly among younger demographics.
• Emerging Scandals: High-profile political figures like George Santos are under intense scrutiny, potentially reshaping political narratives.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• "If Trump can now come out of in the next few weeks with a deal, a trade deal..." [07:15]
• "These are people that should never be aligning with the Republican Party..." [15:45]
• "It was solely based on the vote of the non college educated white that gave a majority of their support to Donald Trump." [30:20]
• "It is so essential. Non college educated white voters were the only group in America... to give a majority of their support to Donald Trump." [35:10]
• "If Donald Trump was not in office right now, this would be the front page of every single newspaper. This would be George Santos on crack." [45:50]
• "It is a numbers game." [52:13]

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the current political climate, emphasizing the critical role of demographic shifts and voter behavior in shaping future electoral outcomes. Graduski’s detailed examination offers listeners valuable insights into the intricate dynamics at play in American politics.