It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Redistricting with PunchBowl News' Jake Sherman

Summary

Podcast Summary: "It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Redistricting with PunchBowl News' Jake Sherman"

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
• Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts
• Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Redistricting with PunchBowl News' Jake Sherman
• Release Date: July 24, 2025
• Description: Clay Travis and Buck Sexton delve into significant news, politics, and current events with intelligence and humor, covering topics from border crises to cancel culture and political missteps.

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Introduction

The episode centers on the intricate and consequential process of redistricting in the United States, its implications for the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, and the emerging "Electoral Cold War" between Democrats and Republicans as they vie for political supremacy through strategic manipulation of congressional districts.

Main Discussion

Redistricting and Its Strategic Importance

[03:18] Ryan Graduski introduces the main topic, emphasizing the significance of redistricting as a pivotal factor in shaping the political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms. He underscores the urgency with which both parties are engaging in state legislatures to redraw congressional districts to secure electoral advantages.

Notable Quote:

"Redistricting is the root of all evil. It just is."
— Jake Sherman [39:54]

Texas's Mid-Decade Redistricting Initiative

The conversation delves deeply into Texas Governor Greg Abbott's announcement of a mid-decade redistricting effort aimed at gerrymandering congressional districts to favor Republicans. This move is portrayed as a strategic hedge against potential losses in traditionally Republican strongholds.

Key Points:

• Governor Greg Abbott's Strategy: Initially hesitant, Abbott was persuaded by President Trump to pursue redistricting, seeking to secure 5-7 additional Republican seats.
• Potential District Targets: Key districts in Houston (Lizzie Fletcher), South Texas (Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez), Dallas (Julie Johnson), and Austin (Greg Cassar and Lloyd Doggett) are identified as primary targets for redistricting.
• Internal Republican Concerns: Some Texas Republicans fear overextension, potentially endangering incumbents by placing them in more competitive districts.

Notable Quote:

"This is a hedge. Right. This is a hedge against losses elsewhere."
— Jake Sherman [22:48]

Democratic Countermoves in Various States

In response to Republican redistricting in Texas, Democratic leaders in states like California, New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, Maryland, and Washington are contemplating their own redistricting efforts to eliminate Republican seats and bolster Democratic representation.

Key Points:

• California's Challenges: Governor Gavin Newsom faces significant hurdles due to California's independent redistricting commission, which requires a constitutional amendment to allow for partisan redistricting—a challenging and uncertain prospect.
• Other States' Stances: Similar redistricting initiatives are being considered in New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, Maryland, and Washington. However, legal and procedural obstacles, such as existing constitutional protections and legislative majorities, complicate these efforts.
• Impact of Independent Commissions: Independent redistricting commissions, designed to create fair and non-partisan districts, often result in maps that do not overtly favor either party, limiting the effectiveness of partisan redistricting attempts.

Notable Quote:

"Ultimately, it diminishes part of the core belief behind our Democratic process too, that voters choose their politicians."
— Jake Sherman [29:42]

Legal and Procedural Hurdles

The discussion highlights the numerous legal and procedural barriers both parties face in executing partisan redistricting, including:

• Constitutional Amendments: States like California and New York require constitutional changes to override independent commissions, a process that is both time-consuming and politically fraught.
• Judicial Interventions: Democratic efforts to redistrict have been repeatedly struck down by state courts, as seen in New York with Governor Kathy Hochul's attempts.
• Legislative Majorities: In states where redistricting requires legislative approval, Democrats often lack the supermajorities necessary to pass partisan redistricting plans.

Notable Quote:

"There's really no easy answer to fix it. But I can do the part to at least explain it."
— Jake Sherman [32:00]

Implications for the 2026 Midterm Elections

The episode emphasizes that the redistricting maneuvers undertaken by both parties are a preemptive strategy to secure favorable outcomes in the 2026 midterms. This "Electoral Cold War" extends beyond the ballot box, with both Democrats and Republicans attempting to manipulate district boundaries to their advantage.

Key Points:

• Electoral Shifts: Texas has seen a significant shift, increasing its Republican margin from R +5.5 in 2020 to R +13.5 in 2024, indicating a robust Republican strategy.
• Democratic Vulnerabilities: Democratic incumbents in Texas, such as Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar, face potential losses as districts are redrawn to be less competitive.
• National Impact: Nationwide, Republican control over 19 states allows them to potentially craft over 193 House seats to favor their party, posing significant challenges for Democrats.

Notable Quote:

"We're in an era of just bare-knuckle politics and both parties are seeming to get accustomed to that."
— Jake Sherman [25:33]

Demographic Trends and Voter Behavior

The guest provides an analysis of demographic trends affecting redistricting and electoral outcomes, noting the declining birth rates among Democrats and the shifting Hispanic vote patterns.

Key Points:

• Fertility Rates: There is a notable disparity in fertility rates, with more Republican-leaning counties having higher fertility rates (e.g., 1.76 children per woman) compared to Democratic-leaning counties (e.g., 1.37 children per woman).
• Net Migration: Internal migration patterns, with populations moving between states, significantly influence voter demographics and the effectiveness of redistricting efforts.
• Hispanic Vote: The Hispanic vote, crucial in states like Texas and California, is increasingly leaning Republican, impacting district competitiveness.

Notable Quote:

"It was a large difference—1.76 on the far right and 1.37 on the far left."
— Jake Sherman [43:11]

Future Projections and the "Electoral Cold War"

Looking ahead, the discussion articulates a vision of an ongoing "Electoral Cold War," where both parties continue to engage in strategic redistricting battles to outmaneuver each other electorally.

Key Points:

• Long-Term Consequences: The manipulation of district boundaries may lead to a Congress that is more polarized and less representative of the national electorate.
• Potential for Legal Challenges: Ongoing lawsuits and legal battles are anticipated as redistricting efforts become more partisan and contentious.
• Balance of Power: Achieving a balanced representation in Congress is challenged by these redistricting strategies, potentially undermining democratic principles.

Notable Quote:

"Congress is the root of all evil. It just is."
— Jake Sherman [39:54]

Guest Insights and Key Quotes

Jake Sherman, co-founder of PunchBowl News, offers expert analysis on the complexities and strategic maneuvers involved in redistricting:

• On Partisan Redistricting:

  "Both parties do this. It's not about who does what and who's to blame. It's not fair and it's not right."
  — Jake Sherman [39:11]

• On the Impact of Independent Commissions:

  "Independent commissions protect incumbents and lean in partisan directions, there's really no easy answer to fix it."
  — Jake Sherman [34:45]

• On the Future of Redistricting:

  "There's really a lot more talk by some people who are trying to run for the White House in 2028 and look like they're trying to take on Trump, especially on the Democratic side."
  — Jake Sherman [21:04]

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a poignant reflection on the current state of redistricting in the United States, emphasizing the intricate dance between legal frameworks, demographic shifts, and partisan strategies. Jake Sherman highlights the intricate balance necessary to maintain democratic integrity amidst the competitive and often adversarial tactics employed by both Democrats and Republicans. The "Electoral Cold War" underscores a critical period in American politics, where every action taken in state legislatures can have profound and lasting impacts on the nation's legislative landscape.

Final Notable Quote:

"Redistricting is the root of all evil. It just is."
— Jake Sherman [39:54]

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For More Information:

• PunchBowl News: punchbowlnews.com
• Jake Sherman on Twitter: @JakeSherman_PB
• Subscribe to PunchBowl News' YouTube Channel: Search for "PunchBowl News YouTube"

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Disclaimer: This summary excludes advertisements, intros, outros, and non-content sections as per the podcast guidelines. All timestamps reference the original transcript for accurate sourcing of quotes and information.

Transcript

[Ryan Graduski]

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[Ryan Graduski]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you all for being here. I am excited that late last week I was on FOX News. I got to go on for my first time in a few years to talk about Congresswoman Maria Salazar's Dignity act which was introduced. She introduced it with 10 Democratic colleagues and nine other Republicans and it is the soft launch of an amnesty for illegal aliens. She has said it's the beginning to get citizenship for more than 10 million illegal aliens. So the bill received co sponsorship of 10 Republicans, half of which including Salazar, in safe seats that Trump won by large margins. If you are displeased with the idea of rewarding illegal immigrants, then your congressman is representatives Mike Lawler from New York, Maria Salazar from Florida, David Valdeo from California, Dan Newhouse from Washington, Mike Kelly from Pennsylvania, Brian Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania, Gabe Evans from Colorado, Marlon Stutzman from Indiana, Don Bacon from Nebraska or young Kim from California. You can call them at 202-225-3121 and tell them that you will not support them in their reelection because they are supporting amnesty for illegal immigrants. Think that people should speak up from their base. All right, funny enough about. Oh wait, this is actually some good gossip. Before I get to my main topic, an elected official from Marlon Stutzman, that's one of the congressmen supporting the Dignity Act, Dignity act district. Email me. I never met this person before and the elected said I need to show you some text messages that Marlon has been sending people. This is this Indiana Republic Republican who ran on a very MAGA campaign in last year when he won his old House seat back. He had been there many years prior and then came back and he ran this big I love Trump, Trump, Trump campaign. Well, he was texting other people who were pushing back on the Dignity act saying that this is the Christian thing to do that. They he doesn't support mass deportation despite campaigning to voters on that and that he it wouldn't give illegal immigrants amnesty, which Salazar says it is the beginning of it. And in the bill, by the way, it says it's the beginning of it and that the 1986 Reagan amnesty didn't give citizenship, which is a bald face lie. A complete bald face lie. He is openly lying to people like he lied when he campaigned on a Trump agenda in 2024. I hope so much that people attend his town halls or wherever they possibly can and voice support for a primary candidate, because if there's anyone who deserves to be run out of town, it is people who openly sit there and say what I campaign on is not true. Those are the worst kinds of politicians. Anyway, it was great going on the Inger Mangle. Very excited to be back on the network. It's been a while since I've been on cable news, since certain Joke on Me banned from a network. Now let's talk to the main subject of today's podcast, which is we are in the middle of summer. But it is a cold war brewing in this country. An electoral Cold War. The 2026 midterm elections are already hot underway, but it's not being done at the ballot box, at least not yet. It's being done in state legislatures as multiple states are already threatening to redistrict their congressional districts to give their respective party an upper hand in the midterm elections. It all started when Texas Governor Greg Adam Abbott announced a mid decade redistricting to give Republicans the chance every drawing five to seven seats in favor of their party in the Lone Star State, according to the Texas Tribune. Abbott didn't want to do it at first, but received a call from President Trump and the legislature is putting it on their special sessions agenda. This came as a reluctancy of many House Republicans in the state who are worried that they could draw what's called a dummy mander. Basically, they spread themselves far too thin and end up putting their own incumbency in danger. Now Democrats in Texas are already facing tough challenges. Two members, Vincente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar, represent districts that Trump won by sizable margins in 2024 and are quickly moving to the right. It spurred off conversations in a number of other Republican states, like Ohio, for example, about if they could do redistricting to give Republicans more favorable seats in their state. Democrats like California Governor Gavin Newsom immediately struck back by announcing he'd be willing to redistrict California to take out six House Republicans in that state. Other Democratic governors in New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, Maryland and Washington say they are prepared to do the same. Essentially, it's like a cold, the old cold war, a race to see who will blow up each other first and then they're all going to blow up each other. Now this is honestly a lot more talk by some people who are trying to IA run for the White House in 2028 and look like they're trying to take on Trump, especially on the Democratic side. For example, Governor Gavin Newsom and the Democratic legislature don't have the power to just redraw maps, become more partisan like Greg Abbott does in Texas. Voters in that state passing law in 2008 stripping them of that power and giving it to an independent commission made up of five Republicans, five Democrats and four unaffiliated citizens. And they're, and they still usually come up with a pretty partisanly Democratic map to begin with. But they're. But it's not overtly partisan. It's not overtly districts drawn up to favor Democrats. For Newsom to be able to redistrict, he'd have to get a constitutional amendment passed by voters to reinstate the legislature's. That would be a long and costly process that likely wouldn't happen in time for 2026. Now there's no telling even if that amendment would pass. New York Democrats tried to overturn their commission with a constitutional amendment and it failed spectacularly. Voters rejected it by double digits. Even Democrats in the California legislature are saying that they will not support Newsom's push for redistricting and gerrymandering. But Newsom wants to run for president and he has to look like he's willing to fight Trump, which is the thing that Democrats want the most from their elected officials. Right now. The other state Democrats are mentioning New Jersey, New York and Washington all also have independent redistricting. Kathy Hochul has tried a number of times to redistrict New York into a state where there's only two or three Republicans. And the Democratic appointed Supreme Court and Court of Appeals have struck her down every time. For any of these states to do exactly what they want, they'd have to get voters to change the Constitution. That's not easy. Minnesota, the other state of that's being mentioned by Democrats. The Democrats, they don't even control the state House, making the point moot. Even if Newsom were to change the redistricting laws, he faces a problem that Republican congressional districts in his state are growing by an average of 10,600 voters from 2020 to 2023, according to the San Francisco Inquirer. While Democrats in the deepest blue areas, their districts are shrinking. And the bluer the district, the more the people are leaving. Districts that voted for Harris by more than 20 points lost about 6,000 people over the same three year period. Among the states that Democrats have full control over the redistricting process, there are 49 House seats. They are in Oregon, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode island and New Mexico. Democrats have basically redistricted every Republican out of those states to begin with. Out of those 45 seats, Republicans hold just five House seats. And the only place I could see them even being able to wipe out another seat is in Maryland. There's one seat in. And the Maryland Supreme Court is controlled by Republicans because or it's all Republican appointed because of Larry Hogan. Republicans, on the other hand, have full redistricting control in 19 states and 193 House seats. Republicans can easily take out a dozen Democrats without blinking an eye in most of them. I mean, there's a real easy path to padding the Republican majority in all those states. But I need to caution, there's really some concern. Trump had a stellar performance in 2024 and he won in Texas, the state that they're eyeing this mass redist 13.5 points, up from 5.5 points in 2020. The worry if Democrats have electoral surge and perform well in the state as they did in 2018 when Senator Ted Cruz won reelection by just 2.6%, means many of those seats would be endangered and you'd have incumbents having very tough chances at holding and winning a reelection. The worry if Democrats have this electoral surge and perform well in the state as they did in 2018 when Senator Ted Cruz won reelection by just 2.6points, then they may endanger a number of safe seats and safe incumbent seats in the midterms. It's a very, very risky test. They're taking one with no certainty of success. Ultimately, it diminishes part of the core belief behind our Democratic process, too, that voters choose their politicians. Running around trying to redistrict ourselves into oblivion creates the process where politicians choose their voters. Drawing congressional districts should be a process where the overall number of congressional seats is reflect the partisan breakdown of the state and how they vote in the presidential election while keeping communities of common interest together. So hypothetically, New England should have four, four or five Trump seats in it, and they just have one right now. Texas, North Carolina and Florida, they should have about 10 more Democratic districts in them. New York, California and Illinois should have about 16 more Republican seats in them. This kind of process would also create a Congress that's more balanced. Single states wouldn't hold all the sway in their party's caucus, and it would give more of a balance representation to the people living in those states. I know where I was raised in Queens, New York. I lived in a very, very Republican area, yet we never had an elected Republican assemblyman. Nor did we even have a competitive race for a Republican assemblyman because the district was broken up four different directions. Once again, both parties do this. It's not about, you know, who does and who's to blame, and it's not fair and it's not right. And seeing how independent commissions protect incumbents and lean in partisan directions, there's really no easy answer to fix it. But I can do the part to at least explain it. My next guest coming up is the leading reporter covering this redistricting fight. He'll be on next Tired of spills.

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[Ryan Graduski]

Jake Sherman is the co founder of Punchbowl News, a website I read every morning, and he's covering the redistricting fight better than almost any other journalist. Jake, thanks for being here.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Thank you.

[Ryan Graduski]

Let's talk about Texas first, because that seems to be where the whole fight began. What I'm calling a cold war states Governor Greg Abbott is looking to redistrict between two to five seats, depending on which story you're reading in favor of Republicans. Some reporting state that Texas Republicans are actually worried about that he may be overstepping and drawing them into competitive districts, including longtime incumbents who in safe districts. Can you speak to that?

[Jacob Goldstein]

Yeah, there should be concern if you're a Texas Republican. That's a concern I've heard a ton about here. So yes, I think they are going to. When the dust settles, they're going to go. They're going to try to get five. The districts that we've reported is and these are the most likely at this point and with the caution that this could all change and is I don't, I don't think it's likely to change. But let's just get the baseline here. I do think a district in Houston. So there's Lizzie Fletcher, who's in the west part of Houston, West U. And some of the, the area around Rice University all the way to River Oaks, which is the, the kind of ton of Houston. I assume they leave her without a district that's one. And then you have Henry Cuellar, Vicente Gonzalez, two districts in South Texas, that would make three. You have Julie Johnson in Dallas, that's another one. And then there's a question about the, about the last seat, whether it's going to be in Austin or it's going to be Veronica Escobar in El Paso. My money is on Austin, where you have Greg Cassar, which is a very, very thin meaning geographically thin district that runs kind of the east side of Austin, north south. And then you have Lloyd Doggett, who represents the bulk of the city of Austin. Now the concern would be if you're a Texas Republican, let's just play devil's advocate here. Let's say Ken Paxton wins the Senate primary. I'm not saying he will or he won't, but it's certainly a possibility that will be a, could be a billion dollar race. I'm not trying to be facetious. It could be just hundreds of millions of dollars in that race. Democrats will try to knock Paxton off and Democratic turnout will presumably again, we're presuming a lot here will probably be through the roof. And then those districts that go from R +20 to R +10 become not, not winnable for Democrats but more difficult for Republicans and especially in and around cities now.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, it also presupposes that the Hispanic shift maintains election cycle to election cycle. Texas was R + 5.5 in 2020, 13.5 in 2024. You need to maintain that coalition to keep it into a double digit state. It wasn't that long ago that Texas went two and a half points for Ted Cruz and it could easily go two and a half points if the state of only two and a half points for Republicans. Again, how many of those seats are actually competitive?

[Jacob Goldstein]

So yes, this, this is the big, the big issue here. The big question is what, what numbers they're basing these off of? How are they, are they basing this is off of 2024 numbers, are they basing it off 2020 numbers, the redrawing of the map? And I think that's a big question. I completely agree with you. And I think the interesting thing will be is Republicans are saying privately that they're going to make every Republican district in the state an average of an R +10. So we'll see how this all shakes out. I mean, I assume there's going to be a ton of lawsuits. I don't know how this is going to work. And I think the interesting thing will be is Democrats will say that they've broken up a bunch of majority minority districts, but Republicans say that actually they're not going to do that. But a lot of these districts will. There will be an equal, if not greater, number of majority minority districts. Districts. But that is, again, as you note, very smartly presupposing that the Latino vote goes for Republicans with the same strength that went for Republicans in 2024. So this is just, I think people are not you, but I think the general coverage of this is actually, in my estimation, underestimating how big of a shift this will be in the national political landscape, especially in the House of Representative, which again, every two years up for reelection. It's just one of the most fascinating stories right now in congressional politics.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. And the biggest irony right now is that Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cullar are in Trump districts and they could very well lose without even redistricting just by how much those districts are shifted and continue to shift and have shifted over the course of the last 60 years, not just two. What does this speak to how the White House and House Republicans feel about the 2026 election? The fact that they are so desperate to make these changes rather than trying to win these 12 seats that Trump won in 2024, the Democrats won in the House.

[Jacob Goldstein]

You're absolutely right. This is a hedge. Right. This is a hedge against losses elsewhere. And it absolutely does speak to that reality. I know we're on Texas right now only, but if you look at.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, my next question was states are doing it. So go ahead. You can.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Well, let's talk about, let's talk. Let's just shift to California quickly, which is what Democrat. And if you're open to that, Ryan, I don't want to, I don't want to take control of your show.

[Ryan Graduski]

No, no, no, go.

[Jacob Goldstein]

You, you bring up an interesting point, which is a lot of these seats that Republicans that either party is redraw is redrawing is they are doing so to win seats that they, they ultimately might win anyway. Right. And you make that point with Cuellar and Vicente in Texas. But in California, Democrats would look at a young Kim in Orange County, a seat that they could win in a good year for Democrats, they are going to look at Ken Calvert in Palm Springs, which is again a seat that they could win in a good year. So they are doing this again to win seats that they could otherwise win. And those are the two big states, right? The two big states that are redistricting. Republicans in Texas, Democrats in California. But then Republicans are looking all over the map. They're looking at states like Missouri where they want to crack Kansas City, a seat that Emanuel Cleaver has represented for a very long time, not a VRA district. And then you get into dicey territory. Can you redistrict in a state like Kentucky? Can you redistrict in a state like New Hampshire if you're Republicans where the governor or last time around was against the map that was much stronger for Republicans. Could Kelly Ayott be more favorable to a mid decade redistricting? The answer to that is I don't know. But there are opportunities across the country. In my conversations with the Trump administration and allied entities, let's say the they even hope for somewhere for some more seats in Florida do that.

[Ryan Graduski]

I mean Florida has the opportunity to redistrict more seats at this point.

[Jacob Goldstein]

They could, right? They could go after some of those south Florida seats. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Jared Moskowitz. They could. Yes, they could. But you are really at the you've really squeezed this towel as you're really trying to squeeze this towel as much as you humanly can. And of course there are risks with that. But listen, we're in an era, Ryan, of just bare knuckle politics and both parties are seeming to get accustomed to that.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. I mean politicians are much more prone to pick their voters than voters are to pick their politicians.

[Jacob Goldstein]

That's right.

[Ryan Graduski]

Let me ask about Gavin Newsom. So Gavin Newsom know, bucked up and decided he was going to go against Trump and Abbott and say that he would redistrict his state if Abbott redistrict his that Newsom does not have the same powers that Abbott has because there's an independent redistricting. How much is about practically what Newsom can do and what he's trying to do in the eyes of the public ahead of a 2028 presidential race race?

[Jacob Goldstein]

It's a very good question. So let's start with this. The constitutional amendment that does that put the redistricting commission in place does not say that. It basically says that the commission, I'm not quoting it directly, but the commission in the, once in the, in the, in the, in the decennial redistricting must use the commission. It is silent on mid decade redistricting and how you would do that. Now you would probably have to do a constitutional, excuse me, amendment or ballot initiative to get buy in. So that's the first hurdle. The second hurdle is how you fund this. Because if you were going to do a ballot initiative, the congressional delegation would have to pony up. And the congressional delegation, in my many, many, many conversations with many of the Democrats, Democrats in that delegation say, well, if you want us to pony up, we're okay with that, but let us draw the map, right? Let us have our say in the map. And so here's what I would say about this. I want to get to your question on Gavin in a second, but I want to put this point out there first. There are opportunities in California for Democrats. There's no question about that. We could talk about that. But if you are a Democrat in California, California, and you have been raising $200,000 a quarter to win by 20 points, are you really going to want to raise 4, 5, 6, $700,000 a quarter in a more competitive seat? And the answer to that is these guys say yes. These Democrats say yes. So now let's talk about Gavin. This is what Democrats want right now, right? They want somebody who's going to take it to the Republicans and, and go bare knuckle and pin people to the mat and all those violent imagery. So it plays for him well politically. He just, as you note, has a much more difficult functional task than Greg Abbott does in Texas. And there's no getting around that. I think that Newsom does it. I think he spends his political capital and tries to get it through. Now he has a lot of other stuff going on. California is a big and complicated state to govern. He also has been asking for money for the wildfires from Congress. I mean, does this interfere with that? I don't know the answer to that. Probably in some way. If they do a disaster package for Texas, do they have to do one for California? Does it become more difficult? All of these are legitimate questions to ask, but they do feel like they have opportunity with Young Kim, with Ken Calvert, with David Valadao, with Darrell Issa in San Diego, a seat that is surrounded by two other Democrats, Scott Peters, actually three, Mike Levin and Sarah Jacobs. All are comfortable Democratic districts. But again, you're talking about seats, Ryan, that Democrats should be able to win even if they don't redistrict in at least Calvert Young, Kim and David Valadao. So is the juice worth the squeeze on a practice on a practical standpoint? I don't know the answer to that. You could make the argument either way. Is it worth the squeeze in a political standpoint? Probably for Newsom if he sees a future in national politics.

[Ryan Graduski]

Right. And I mean Democrats want a fighter who they perceive to be a fighter. And Newsom has definitely one of the biggest soapboxes in the country as far as Democrats go and a very tough field where congressional Democrats are trying to look very strong. The, the interesting thing about this in hindsight is we can go back in a couple years and look back and say, wow, this was either genius or this was very, very stupid. There was this huge shift among Hispanics nationwide, especially in Texas and California, and a bunch of districts like David Valdeo. He's been there, I think for quite some time. I think 2014 or 2016. He used to be in a Democrat district. He was the Republican who went a Democratic district. Now his district, Trump won, I think by seven points because that whole Central Valley area is becoming more and more Republican. If they stretch these lines too thin, even in the case of and Hispanics move back to where they were pre2024, then Texas Republicans have egg on their face. If they continue to move forward, if that working class momentum continues to happen, then a lot of California Democrats sit there and have to panic because all of a sudden they are in a competitive seat when they've never really dealt with that outside of a primary. I want to talk with the other states. New York has talked about this. New York. Now Kathy Hochul has tried many, many times at this point to try to get redistricting. The Democratic Court of Appeals has struck her down every time. It's especially over the Staten island seat, which she can't seem to just let Nicole Mallie Takas go. She has to try to get rid of her any which way she can. Even though Malie Takis would have won the redistricted super Democratic area last time. There's Washington state they're talking about, also a commission state. They mentioned Minnesota, which Republicans control the state House. I don't even know why they brought that state up for. And they talked about New Jersey, which is also a commission state. Can all these governors get past these independent commissions in order to get some kind of redistricting? I mean, this is a lot of work on Democratic side.

[Jacob Goldstein]

So New Jersey, I actually have notes in front of me because we've been talking about this so much internally. Ali Mutnick who covers this for us is just tremendous, great reporter. The New Jersey Constitution says the establishment of congressional districts shall be used thereafter for the election of members of the House and shall remain, remain unaltered through the next year ending in zero in which a federal census for the state is taken. Don't know how you get around that. Washington state very similar. If a commission has ceased to exist, the legislature may upon affirmative vote in each of the House in each house of two thirds of the members elected or appointed adopt legislation reconvening the commission for the purpose of modifying the redistricting plan. Democrats don't have 2/3 in the House or the Senate. New York bans mid decade redistricting in the in the New York State Constitution Article 3, Section 4E. I think there is a lot of wish casting here from Democrats and again I'm not saying like again every both parties need to do what they need to do to get their voters riled up. But I understand the, I understand the politics here here but there are just some major hurdles to get around in some of these states, including New York. Democrats just don't have a lot of opportunity as much opportunity as Republicans do. I don't see outside of California a.

[Ryan Graduski]

Lot of these states. Looking at Missouri, Indiana, New Hampshire, you mentioned before Kentucky. Why didn't Republicans in 2022 try to crack these sole Democratic seats? Like why are we, why are that position right now where they're freaking out?

[Jacob Goldstein]

Well, I mean the governors and a lot of they were complicated by internal state politics in New Hampshire, specifically Indiana also. And by the way I don't think that Republicans can do Indiana right now. I've been told that they are that the state party is against that in Indiana. I'm not sure if that stretches all the way up to Mike Braun, but I, but that's been hinted to me again I don't know that I probably shouldn't even say that but that that's what's been told to me that Indiana is not a live option. And also remember like some, a lot of this is relationship based. Right. A lot of this is that they, a lot of these states benefit from having a Democratic seat. A lot of Republican state from Democratic states benefit from having a Republican seat. Like this is not, it's not just like a pure power grab a lot of the time. Again you're right there are opportunities in Indiana. There are Opportunities in New Hampshire. But, you know, listen, it's not, it's not as cut and dry as, I mean, Governor Sununu. Remember, he vetoed a map. He vetoed a map that was, that was stronger. So a lot of internal state politics there.

[Ryan Graduski]

Got you. Last question. Which states, which state do you would you bet if you were a betting man on the most likely to redistrict before the next election?

[Jacob Goldstein]

Well, Texas for sure.

[Ryan Graduski]

Really? You think it's going to go through?

[Jacob Goldstein]

Don't you think so? You. You don't think so?

[Ryan Graduski]

I heard there's a lot of pushback from Texas Republicans even in the state legislature who are very nervous about this. And some of these maps I've seen thrown around are, are just ridiculous. I mean, that, not that that will stop them, but they are truly ridiculous. I mean, I don't know. I know there's a lot of pressure in the White House. I could. The two seats in the south, tight Texas, very easy. Redistrict. It's easy to get to two. Like you could do. I could do it. I. You give me a crayon. I could do two extra Republican seats in South Texas. 5. You have to get really creative. And you're bringing A lot of Texas incumbents do not like to be even in remotely competitive places. They like to be in super safe seats. And they got that in 2022. And I don't know if they're really, really willing to deal with that in 20, 20, 26 in a Democratic year. And a couple of them having to actually really campaign and fundraise hard. I don't know.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Let me, let me, let me make a couple quick points here, if you don't mind. I think Houston is relatively easy the way it's been put to me. Remember, Lizzie Fletcher was given that district. She ran in a more competitive seat against Wesley Hunt and she beat Wesley Hunt. Then they made a seat for Wesley Hunt and they gave Lizzie Fletcher very blue seat. But she's surrounded by a lot of strong Republican seats in that west part of Houston stretching into the suburbs and the exurbs. So if you could just sink some of those Democratic votes into those strong Republican seats, then you're in good shape if you're a Republican and puts Lizzie Fletcher in a bind. And so that's another one. And Dallas appears to be just a little bit harder. And then if you get to Austin, my guess, just based on his fundraising, is that McCall is not going to run again. I think he raised like $90,000 or something like that. He was denied the Homeland Security chair. He tried to run for it. It was a big mess in the Capitol. We're going to, by the way, talk about all this on our new Punchbowl news show, Fly Out Day, which you should all subscribe to all about Congress all the time, subscribe to Punchbowl News YouTube. So I think that Austin is not easy, but it's not as hard. Dallas is, Dallas could be difficult. And El Paso, I mean I think El Paso is the hardest. If my, if I had to guess, they don't go after El Paso. Veronica Escobar. You know, Tony Gonzalez's seat was drawn by the corner court. So you get in and, and get, and Tony's a very headstrong, smart and.

[Ryan Graduski]

Not, he's a very hated member by.

[Jacob Goldstein]

His own caucus though he has some complicated relationships.

[Ryan Graduski]

But he did call a few of them racist like three years.

[Jacob Goldstein]

But I don't think they're going to want to mess with that district. Although that, that Ryan, that seat for, for Escobar shifted 19 points toward Trump.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, they all, they, all these Hispanic districts did. I think there's a possibility for them there. What I, I, the, the political consultant in me looks at the opportunity for short term games versus long term games. I think the Hispanic vote is going to continue to move just because minority votes are moving throughout the entire western world. However, and suburban college educated areas like the Austin area is going to grow even further to the left. It's very, very narrowing. I don't know.

[Jacob Goldstein]

But the midterm, it's a midterm. I mean as much as CLF says they want to go out and change the midterm electorate, like I want to be, you know, a 6 foot 4 point guard for the Knicks. You know, like I, I want to be a scratch golfer. None of those things are going to happen.

[Ryan Graduski]

You know, like you mentioned the wildfires before my, the, the not abandon like the political consulting part of it. It would be a lot easier for California to get those wildfire money if there were eight more Republicans in California and if there were five, if there was a lot more Southern Democrats and Northeast Republicans and California Republicans, you would have a lot healthier balance in our Congress because there'd be regional representation.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Dude, I, I say this to people all the time. People ask me about what I think is broken about Congress. Congress. And I try to have zero opinions about most things because I hate everyone equally. But redistricting is the root of all evil. It just is. And I love covering it. I love these stories. But as you said before when you pick your voters, you are not incentivized. Most people go home and their principal political hurdle is a primary challenge that does not lead to good governing. I don't care what you say, not you specifically, I don't care what anyone says. But if you go home and people are saying you should go further to the right or further to the left, I just think that's a. It's not great for democracy. That's all.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, Jake, where can people go to Read more about your work and punchbowl.

[Jacob Goldstein]

News Punchbowl News they should go to. They should Follow me on Twitter Jake Sherman Pretty easy. I got that name early I suppose. And we are launching the show which will be really exciting in September Fly Out Day, a show about all about Congress and legislative politics which we're very, very excited for. And so everyone should subscribe to punchable news on YouTube and on the Daily Punch on Spotify. All those things. We have a lot of things I.

[Ryan Graduski]

Get in my email box every day and I love it. I think you guys do great work. So thank you for being on this podcast. I appreciate you.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Thanks man.

[Ryan Graduski]

Hey, we'll be right back after this.

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[Ryan Graduski]

For the Ask Me Anything segment. My first question comes from Robin Eschenberg. She writes, many legitimate reasons have been given for Democrats opening border policies, including increased legislative representation, desire for cheap labor, and in general, more voters. Has anyone talked about the trend of birth rates, specifically conservative versus Lib birth rates? I know in general the birth rates are declining, but it's declining quicker for Democrats. I think she's asking that question. If so, could it be explaining why they need more voters? That is a great question, Robin. So there's no official breakdown of fertility rates and birth rates by political party, but they have studied fertility rates by county. A report from the Family Studies found that the most Republican counties in 2024 had a fertility rate of 1.76 children per woman. Areas that leaned Republican had 1.67. Swing counties had 1.59 children per woman, which was very similar to Democratic lean counties that had 1.56. And the most Democratic counties in the country had a fertility rate of just 1.37 children per woman. So, yeah, there is a big difference. 1.76 on the far right and 1.37 on the far left. This is a very, very big gap. That's basically the difference between, you know, France and not Italy, but close to it when it comes to birth rates now, there's not a single state with a fertility rate above the 2.1 children per woman that you need, that a society needs to replace itself from one generation to another. South Dakota, which is 2.03. Nebraska has 1.96. Idaho and Alaska at 1.86, are the closest. When you compare it to 2015, when you look at fertility trends in the states over the course of the last decade, they have declined, declined, you know, across the board in every single state. The states that they've declined the most and ironically actually have been mostly red states. Utah had the biggest decline of any state, but that's because Mormons are continually leaving their church in droves. Overall, the fertility rate went from 1.84 in 2015 to 1.62 in 2025. And the states that had a declining fertility rate rate above the national average were Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, D.C. hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin. I know there's a lot, but I don't know, flag the state that you live in if you're there. That's because of a mixture of things. It's because there's a mixture of religious affiliation among Mormon communities in the states like Utah and Idaho. It's a massive decline among the black population in some areas. Decline of fertility in the black populations. The decline of Hispanic birth rate has definitely hit the Southwest in huge numbers. That was a big part of the 2015-2025 change that we saw when it comes to fertility. The change in fertility among red states is the declining religiosity. When you look at states that are in super low region, super low low fertility levels, levels that are far below replacement, where the population is, has almost no way of leaving itself of like 1.4 children per woman. And below, all of them voted for Kamala Harris. So, yeah, there is a correlation of needing voters because their voters are not having children, it's obvious between the state data and the county data from 2024. But I think a big part of it also is internal net migration of our own country. You have to supplement bad policies and loss of voters who are just moving to either red districts or red states. And I think that is the bigger thing. It's not so much fertility, although I find it interesting and I gave you all that data. I think that a bigger part of it is just net migration, more than even just fertility rates. I don't think they, you know, think so far ahead to fertility rates. All right, second question and last for the podcast. This comes from Chris from San Francisco. This email is rather long, but I want to summarize it. But it says, you know, is the failure of California as a state on Arnold Schwarzenegger and the fact that he was just a Democrat in Republican clothing and he was the final blow to turn California permanently, permanently blue. And he asked for the data on this. So the question's hard to summarize with data, but I'm going to give it my best shot. People forget that despite being a Blue State from 1983 to 2011, Republicans control the governorship of California for all but four years of that entire span of time. While they control the governor's mansion, however, they never control the state legislature. The state senate was never Republican. The state assembly was Republican for two years during that entire time period. Now, it's not as bad as it is now as far as the makeup goes, but Republican governors could never really act in a conservative fashion. And Arnold was the worst of that because he didn't really campaign hard for Republicans in the state to win the state legislature, which is very interesting. It's a phenomenon. You see a blue state governor, some blue state governors, blue state Republican governors when they are in charge either. Some use their political capital when they're very popular to win legislative seats, and others use it to increase their own profile ahead of a possible presidential run. I'll give you four perfect examples. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Chris Christie did very little to nothing to help Republicans in New Jersey and California when they were governor. Phil Scott and Larry Hogan in Vermont and Maryland campaigned extremely hard for their Republicans in the state legislature and they grew their numbers. I think Maryland was the only state in the country in 2018 where Republicans increased their representation in the legislature in no part to Larry Hogart's efforts. And in Vermont, a state that Trump lost, lost big time. In 2024, Phil Scott won re election and he almost took out the Democratic state Senate majority for the first time in decades. So that's like the difference of, of the actions. But back to Schwarzenegger, he never did that and he made the campaign about him. And by the end of his term, his popularity was somewhere in the mid 20% while 2/3 of California residents had a negative opinion about him. So I think ultimately Schwarzenegger definitely did not help Republicans either below him win more seats and secondly did not win anyone who was going to campaign as a Republican in his place after he was retired because he was so unpopular. But ultimately what changed California was in the actions of one particular person or particular party, it's just massive demographic changes. As white voters fled the state and Hispanics and Asians grew up, became registered voters and voted more Democrat on average than whites did. Democrats just got this huge spike in surge in registration. I couldn't find voter registration data that predates 2018, but I think this still is a good example. In January 2018, Democrats had 1.5 million more registered people than Republicans did in the state. It was like 6.7 million to 5.2 million million over 16 years. Though Republicans gained 160,000 new registered voters in California, mostly coming post 2020, Democrats gained 3.5 million in that same time period. Demographics are what changed that state. It really wasn't the actions of a single governor, despite the fact that Schwarzenegger wasn't very good by most people's accounts. Anyway, that's the show. If you want to be part of the Ask me Anything segment in the future, please email me ryanumbersgame podcast. That's ryanumbersgame podcast.com I read every one of these emails. I try to get to every one of them either on the show or privately. So email me if you like. And please like and subscribe this podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast. Wherever you get your podcast, if you're feeling very generous and you like this data I give you give me a five star review. It does make a big difference and I, I notice. Thank you so much. See you guys next week.

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[Ryan Graduski]

This is an iHeart podcast.