It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Starmer’s Collapse, Farage’s Rise & Labour’s Leadership Crisis

Summary

Podcast Summary

Podcast: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show (Special Guest Host: Ryan Graduski)

Episode Title: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Starmer’s Collapse, Farage’s Rise & Labour’s Leadership Crisis
Date: February 13, 2026
Host: Ryan Graduski
Guest: James Johnson (President, J and L Partners; former pollster for UK PM Theresa May)

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Ryan Graduski (guest-hosting) takes listeners on a tour of breaking political developments in Europe, centering on the ongoing leadership crisis within the UK Labour Party under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the dramatic rise of populist Nigel Farage and the Reform UK Party, and the looming collapse of Labour’s political dominance. The episode explores the numbers driving these trends, with grounded comparisons to past elections, insight into the behind-the-scenes power struggles, and analysis from British polling expert James Johnson.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Switzerland's Referendum on Immigration Caps

[02:41–07:40]

• Unique Swiss Political System:
  • Switzerland’s direct democracy and rotating executive council system is contrasted with the US model.
  • The Swiss People’s Party (SVP), a national populist party, has held parliamentary preeminence since 1999.
• Immigration & Population Cap Initiative:
  • Switzerland’s SVP is pushing for a referendum to strictly cap national population at 10 million (currently ~9 million).
  • Foreigners account for 27% of the population; 40% live in households with at least one immigrant.
  • "This is not about identity in this case. It's strictly about the fact that the cost of living and the housing crisis is rising too fast for native Swiss." — Ryan ([06:38])
• EU Ties & Polls:
  • Switzerland is outside the EU but tied by free movement agreements.
  • The proposal, if passed (polling at 48% support, 41% opposed), could dramatically reshape immigration in Western Europe.

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UK Political Crisis & Labour Party’s Free Fall

[07:40–12:23]

• Keir Starmer’s Plummeting Popularity:
  • Huge Labour win in 2024: 62% of seats.
  • Starmer’s current approval rating is a disastrous 19%, "That’s Prince Andrew territory."
• Housing, Immigration, and Scandal:
  • The UK is facing simultaneous crises: housing affordability, immigration, and economic stagnation.
  • The government’s instability was catalyzed by the Lord Peter Mandelson–Jeffrey Epstein connection.
  • Mandelson, Starmer’s “brains” and key adviser, resigned after emails revealed close Epstein ties, causing top cabinet departures and threatening government collapse.
• Quote:
  • “Will the Epstein files bring down the United Kingdom’s government? That question is coming up next.” — Ryan ([12:20])

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Deep Dive: UK Labour Party Leadership Crisis

Interview with James Johnson
[15:10–31:07]

Starmer’s Precarious Position

• Resignation Watch:
  • Johnson: “If you’re asking, is he [Starmer] going to be Prime Minister by the end of the year, I would say almost certainly not.” ([15:25])
  • He’s temporarily safe as rivals aren’t ready to strike, but his authority is “pretty brutally wounded.”
• Peter Mandelson’s Real Influence:
  • Mandelson was certainly influential but likening him to a “father-son” relationship is overstated.
  • Starmer’s key operator was actually his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, whose resignation is a major loss.
  • “He can live without Mandelson, but can he live without McSweeney?...Starmer is many things. He is not a political thinker. And when his job is politics, that’s tough. Right?” — James Johnson ([17:45])

Leadership Succession & Internal Party Dynamics

• Who Might Replace Starmer?
  • Wes Streeting (Health Secretary) is “the one to watch” but lacks momentum.
  • Ed Miliband (former Labour leader) is eyeing a return.
  • Angela Rayner (former deputy PM, now out due to tax controversy) remains active and may strike when cleared.
  • “They’re all wielding the knife...but nobody is actually quite ready to come out of the shadows.” ([21:13])
• Party Election Mechanics:
  • Labour leadership requires about 80 MPs to unite behind a challenger—much harder than Conservative oustings.

Electoral Landscape & Farage’s Ascent

• Nigel Farage’s Disruptive Rise:

  • Farage’s Reform UK Party is polling ~30%, holding steady.
  • Labour MPs and members genuinely fear Farage as a right-populist threat.
  • “They [Labour/left] think he’s the devil incarnate.” ([22:37])
  • 3 in 10 Green voters would prefer Farage over Starmer, per recent polls—a sign of Starmer’s unpopularity on the left.
  • Johnson predicts Labour will shift left in leadership to regain left-leaning voters and counter Farage: “That sort of populism, that sense of straight talking...exists more on the left.” ([24:04])

• By-Elections & Upcoming Tests:

  • A looming by-election in Northern England (Manchester & Gordon) could see Labour lose a previously safe seat to Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin.
  • “If they lose badly, then I think it probably does does reopen everything again...Labour could be pushed third and that would be really devastating.” ([25:37])
  • Additional local and devolved elections in May pose further peril for Starmer.

Conservative Party’s Diminished Role

• Conservative Decline:
  • Kemi Badenoch is the new Conservative leader but public recognition is abysmal.
  • Conservative polling remains stuck at historic lows (~20%), with Reform UK seen as the main opposition for now.
  • “There are real problems for the Conservative Party...if there’s anyone who’s in a better position on the right, it’s Nigel Farage.” — James Johnson ([29:55])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Starmer’s approval rating stands at 19%. That’s Prince Andrew territory.” – Ryan ([09:00])
• “He can live without Mandelson, but can he live without McSweeney?...Starmer is many things. He is not a political thinker.” – James Johnson ([17:45])
• “They think [Farage is] the devil incarnate…that’s their view.” – James Johnson ([22:37])
• “Labour could be pushed third [in the by-election] and that would be really devastating.” – James Johnson ([25:44])
• “You cannot lose votes to another party on your right. There’s not enough space in our first past the post electoral system in the UK for two right wing parties...if there’s anyone who’s in a better position on the right, it’s Nigel Farage.” – James Johnson ([29:55])
• “British politics is phenomenal right now. It is the show. You can’t…you have to watch it. It’s like a soap opera.” – Ryan ([30:34])

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Timestamps of Important Segments

| Time | Segment | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------------| | 02:41 | Intro to Switzerland’s political uniqueness | | 04:00 | Swiss People’s Party and immigration cap referendum | | 07:40 | Transition to UK: Starmer’s crisis and scandal recap | | 15:10 | James Johnson introduces Starmer’s leadership outlook | | 17:45 | Analysis: Mandelson vs. McSweeney in Starmer’s downfall| | 19:34 | Discussion: Labour succession, Streeting/Miliband/Rayner| | 22:29 | Farage’s impact and left’s fear | | 25:06 | By-election consequences for Labour | | 26:41 | Upcoming May local elections and further tests | | 27:57 | Conservative Party’s status and Kemi Badenoch | | 30:34 | “British politics is a soap opera”—closing reflections |

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Original Tone and Style of Conversation

Ryan Graduski blends sharp, informed analysis with wit and accessible explanations for an American audience. The conversation is brisk, detailed, and occasionally irreverent, exemplified by zingers like “That’s Prince Andrew territory.” James Johnson brings a measured, behind-the-scenes perspective, excelling at making complex internal party mechanics accessible and often dryly noting the realities of political life (“You cannot lose votes to another party on your right.”).

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Ask Me Anything Segment

[33:56–40:51]

• Ryan addresses a listener’s question about JD Vance’s electability as a GOP candidate.
• He argues Vance is popular across the right, not just with the MAGA base, and doubts Rubio—who says he isn’t running—would challenge him.
• Ryan provides candid, insider-like insight, comparing primary dynamics and illustrating likely party behavior based on historical trends.

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a comprehensive breakdown of seismic shifts in UK and European politics, using polling data and party dynamics to explain not just what’s happening but why. The show’s style is candid, sharp, and occasionally tongue-in-cheek, but grounded in numbers and informed analysis—ideal for listeners who want to understand today’s high-stakes political dramas from the inside.

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Sources for further info from the episode:

• James Johnson (guest):
  • X/Twitter: @JamesJohnson252
  • Polling: @JandLPartners Polls (UK focus)
• Contact:
  • Ryan Graduski: [e-mail]

Transcript

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[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

Welcome back to a numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Thank you guys for being here. I have a little bit of a cold today, so if my voice sounds a little strange, I apologize. Today is an interesting episode because, you know, I've done a lot of episodes on immigration and the midterms and some on AI. But I wanted to do a look around the world and what was going on with some developments in Europe, especially in our mother country of Great Britain. First though, let's talk about something that's happening in June in Switzerland. Switzerland and its neighboring country of Liechtenstein have some of the most fascinating governments in all Western Europe. I actually Liechtenstein has the most fascinating government. It's the only nation in Europe where the monarch has gained more power over the last 20 years instead of less. Anyway, Switzerland, that's just like a little fun fact that's nothing to do with the topic. But Switzerland, they have a very different form of government, the one that we have in America. So they have a direct democracy, they have federalism, they have a bicameral federal assembly made up of both elected officials that are coming right from the voters as well as people who represent the local canons. Basically their version of states, like their version of a senate. It would be like if the senate and the house had one chamber and instead of a president they have an executive committee which is elected by parliament and the head of the council rotates annually. So one year the far left, the next year could be the far right. But it doesn't matter because at the end of the day they have this grand coalition with all these major parties trying to work together on policy. I know what I just described seems completely like foreign to Americans, but I promise you it works for them anyway. And they have direct democracy which works also well for them because they have a very high intelligent population, very connected to the nation. Well, anyway, the largest party in Switzerland is currently the Swiss People's Party is a national populist, national conservative political party and it has been in power for the longest time of any country in all of Europe. They've had the continual largest. I've been the largest party elected to the parliament for the longest period of time since 1999. That's longer. That's a longer series of unbroken power than even President Orban over in Hungary in The last election, 2023, they earned 28% of the vote, which, you know, to us doesn't seem like very much, but in a multi party system, that's pretty significant. The second largest party only got 18%. So since they've been in office since 1999, they have done a lot of things through direct democracy. A bunch of initiatives that they've passed, including the ban of Islamic minarets on the top of mosques, which kind of slowed down construction of mosques in Switzerland. They also passed in 2014 a ban on mass immigration. That initiative actually, when it went before the parliament, was actually watered down substantially because in an effort to appease the European Union, Switzerland is not in the European Union. Switzerland famously neutral in all things, but they do participate in the EU single market, which guarantees the free movement of people. The final scraped immigration, the final version rather scraped immigration quotas, but it ordered a prioritization of Swiss residents rather than foreign workers in locations where unemployment is above average. Huge betrayal. The voters wanted strict immigration reduction 12 years ago. So now 2026, 12 years later, they are back. The Swiss People's Party is back with a new initiative, and that is a very, very strict form of immigration restrictionism. They are setting a cap at the national population of 10 million people. Currently, the country is 9 million people. Remember, Switzerland's a tiny country surrounded by mountains with a mass influx of immigrants that have made the cost of living exceptionally high. It's very, very, very high. It's the highest and I think in all of Europe, aside from like, you know, small city states like Monaco. Foreigners make up 27% of the population, with 40% of the population having at least one immigrant parent or one immigrant person in your household. Very large population immigrants. But most of those immigrants are European. They're mostly Italian, German, Portuguese, French, Spanish. 83% of all immigrants in Switzerland are Europeans, particularly from Western Europe. Still, it doesn't matter. It's not about identity in this case. It's strictly about the fact that the cost of living in the housing cris. This is rising too fast for native Swiss. And this was. People's Party also wants to protect the integrity of Switzerland's demography, but. But of their geography. They don't want cities everywhere. They like their towns looking a certain way. They like the fact that they have so much nature around them. They like not building big buildings on every mountain across the entire country. Supporters of this initiative say it will be extremely difficult to gain citizenship and permanent residency to this country once the initiative pass. And they say once the number hits 9.5 million people, they'd only be 500,000 short. It will revise the free movement of people agreement with the European Union. The election occurs in June and the first opinion poll that has come out in December found the Swiss People Party support for the referendum is 48% while 41% opposed. So this could very much pass in Switzerland, which we the first country to say we're capping the population growth, we're capping the number of immigrants, period. Switzerland has a current has a fertility rate of 1.28 children per woman, which is very low. So it's not like they're going to have this baby boom that will, you know, increase the population. It's very unlikely that naturally they'll get to 10 million. They'll probably shrink, actually. And this will be one of the most significant cuts to immigration and population, by the way, in all of Western Europe. It will be interesting to see what happens. I'll probably talk about it when we see what the vote is. Unfortunately, I have no political contacts in Switzerland, so I can't really get someone on the show to talk about it. But it will be interesting. And speaking of a country, though I do have a lot of context in and that I am a little, we're a little closer with is Great Britain. So let's talk about what's going on in the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, he's of the left wing Labour Party. He's in deep, deep trouble. Now remember, his party won a massive victory back in 2024, ending the decade control from the Conservative Party. His party has 62% of all the seats in Parliament. But despite winning such a big election two years ago, according to YouGov, Starmer's approval rating stands at 19%. That's Prince Andrew territory. The party is absolutely going to be decimated in the next election and they know it. Of course, there are many reasons for this. Starmer owns some that Starmer doesn't own. But there is a big housing crisis in England. There's an immigration crisis, there's stagnation on the economic front. But the recent controversy that has set up this domino effect to take down Starmer and his government is Jeffrey Epstein, which I know sounds completely wild, like Jeffrey Epstein is a conversation starter in the United States. We're thinking that's interesting going on. We for a controversial figure, for a lot of conspiracy theories. But taking down a government seems very shocking. It all has to do with a man named Peter Mandelson. He is the center of this. I've spoken to British friends who are in the political Circles and they say Peter is not just an influential figure around Starmer. Peter is the brains behind Starmer. Peter is the person who saw Starmer's potential and said, I will get you elected to office. We will have this election victory and I will set the course of what goes on and you'll be the figurehead. That's what they say in Britain around him. They actually call him the Prince of Darkness. Well, he has had many cabinet positions in the British government. He was appointed actually as the ambassador to the United States in December 2024. That is the most prestigious ambassador job in the UK and he is known to have many contacts with Jeffrey Epstein. There were a lot of flags raised and during the vetting process to become ambassador, as well as being part of, of, of Starmer's inner circle, they included a lot of questions about Jeffrey Epstein and Starmer kind of brushed them aside. But when emails were leaked in the Epstein files showing that not only was he a confident of Jeffrey Epstein, but he remained close with Epstein even after he was convicted, even after he was in jail, Mandison was absolutely okay with everything that Jeffrey Epson had been credibly accused of or have been charged of. He's never been found guilty, obviously, because he died in prison before he went to trial. Anyway, in the emails, he jokes with Epstein about women, he jokes with Epstein about strippers. It's not a good look. He had to. Mandelson had to resign right after all this happened. And Starmer apologized on behalf of his government saying, I'm so sorry. I believed all his lies that he wasn't actually this close with Epstein. It's my fault. I was bad, you know, bad timing or bad bad judgment on my, on my part. Nonetheless, members of Starmer's cabinet are leaving in droves. The door is now revolving as people leave one after the other. And in British politics it is very traditional. When your cabinet starts leaving, that is the sign your government's about to collapse. So with top officials leaving Starmer left and right, multiple parties are now calling on him to resign. Will the Epstein files bring down the United Kingdom's government? That question is coming up next.

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[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

James Johnson is the President of J and L Partners, a former pollster for Prime Minister Theresa May, who is Also known as the best dancer in the uk. Thank you so much for being here, James. I really appreciate it. You were on this podcast once before. Is Starmer done?

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

I think it depends on which expiry date you're putting on. If you're asking, is he going to be Prime Minister by the end of the year, I would say almost certainly not. If you're saying, is he done? Imminently, I think he's bought himself some more time. He does appear to have got his Cabinet behind him. He's also in a very fortunate position whereby his leadership rivals are not ready. It is much easier to dethrone a Conservative Prime Minister where you just need a certain percentage of the parliamentary party saying they want them gone. We saw that happen to over and over. Johnson. We saw it over and over again. But with Labour, you need to have around 80 MPs united behind a candidate on paper, and that's obviously a lot harder. So he's bought himself some room. But there is absolutely no doubt that his political authority has been pretty brutally wounded by the last few, few weeks and months.

[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

How. How much? So I listened to a lot of British podcasters and I talked to some of my British friends, my star ones, like smart ones like you. Peter Mandelson, he is. They. They have basically told me that Peter was the brains and here was here. Summer was the face that there would be no Keir Starmer without Mandelson. That's how close they were. This wasn't a casual business relationship. This was. This was like almost like a father, son type figure.

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

So I think that is probably overdoing it. I think that Mandelson definitely was influential. I think he was not just working on the American side, but he was also giving advice on the Cabinet appointments and some of the domestic challenges. And Peter Manelsen was someone who'd been in the labor movement for more than 40 years. He was an architect of Tony bear's victory in 1997. He was key to new labor throughout the 2000s. And although he had a bit of a quiet period in 2000, in the 2000s, he was also behind the scenes advising Keir Starmer on how to get back into power in 2024. So he was definitely an influential figure, don't get me wrong. But I would not characterize it in that way. I think the real closeness in terms of relationships was Keir Starmer and his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, and Morgan McSweeney resigned last weekend. They did have a very tight relationship, and I think it's hard to see how Keir Starmer functions well without him, because he can live without Manelson, but can he live without McSweeney? And it was really interesting because on Monday, there was this period of complete quiet where no one in the Cabinet was getting behind Keir Starmer. And some people read that as saying, well, the Cabinet are not supportive of the Prime Minister. Actually, if you've been in number 10, and I've been in there and been watching these issues closely since that period, actually, what that was a reflection of was that clearly no One in number 10 was saying, get the Cabinet out. No one was orchestrating the political defense. And that spoke to the absence of Morgan McSweeney, who, for whatever his faults might be. And these chiefs of staff are always, always have their faults. You know, he was very close to Starmer and he was a doer. You know, he did get things done in number 10 and you could see the absence of that. So I think it's the lack of that relationship that's going to be difficult for Starmer because he's lost his political mind, basically. And, you know, Starmer is many things. He is not a political thinker. And when his job is politics, that's tough. Right? Yeah.

[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

Well, I want to the American audience, I want to make somebody understand, in the uk, the Cabinet are also elected mps. They're also elected members of Parliament. So it's not like in America, where Marco Rubio doesn't have to face voters. All these Cabinet members have to face voters in the next re election. And in the last election, a lot of Tory cabinet members, even ones I really liked, they lost because being part of the government doesn't mean they're never accountable. Accountable. You're held accountable every election cycle. So that's unique and that's different. And that's why there's a lot of. When Cabinet members resign, it really does mean something because they're resigning from. From. It really means. It's a. It's a big thing for CAB members to leave. So who would be the person to shank Starmer in the Labor Party if it were to happen?

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

And you're right, Ryan, because not only are they elected, they're also the people who want to be the next leader. In terms of Cabinet, Wes Streeting is the one to watch. He's currently the Health Secretary, so in charge of health policy, the National Health Service, those kinds of things. He is in the sort of orbit of people that definitely want to be Prime Minister and he is definitely positioning himself to be. So one of the other events in the last week in British politics was that Wes treating released all of his WhatsApp messages with Peter Mandelson to try and get, you know, the bad stuff out the door first and show that he's squeaky clean. They were quite embarrassing for him, but ultimately, probably better to get them out now than later. So he is a big one. There's Ed Miliband, who avid followers of British politics will recognize as having been labor leader between 2010 and 2015.

[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

He.

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

He lost an election to David Cameron, clearly did not become Prime Minister, but he is eyeing up the top job again. Apparently. He's currently Shadow Energy Secretary. He's doing a lot of stuff on, for example, Net Zero. But then there are also people who aren't in the cabinet who could deliver the killer blow to Starmer. And the big one is Angela Rayner. She is a Northern mp. She is. She was previously deputy Prime Minister under Starmer, but had to resign because of controversies over her taxes. But she is still, you know, despite that, she's not been put in the political graveyard. She's still very active. She's very popular on the left. And, you know, in many ways, her being out the cabinet allows her to be a bit more direct and a bit more open. Like I said earlier, none of these people are ready to go just yet. Where Streeting doesn't yet have the numbers or the sort of sense of momentum, Miliband needs more time. Angela Rayner is actually waiting for a report to come back on her taxes from the UK equivalent of the irs. So she's waiting for that report. And that helps Dharma, because they're all wielding the knife, there's no doubt about that. But nobody is actually quite ready to come out of the shadows.

[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

The way that it works in the UK Is there's not a fixed election date. Right. It's not like America where it's every November, first Tuesday of November, every four years. They have. And they can call an election at any time until a certain date in 2029. So he has some Runway time and he thinks he's been. And he's telling you, I'm going to hold out until I will. I will be sitting for the next election. What are the chances? I mean, I don't. What does. What does the rise of Nigel Farage also do to impact the fear among. Among labor voters and labor members in the sense of this? They're so afraid of Nigel Farage being the next prime minister that they may rally around the chief or look for a new one who could actually fight off Farage because they see Farage's numbers and they really haven't fallen, you know, at all. Basically he's been holding steady around 30% for quite some time. So. Well, I mean, what are the chances that it's that Farage plays a big thing, either hurting Starmer or keeping Starmer?

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

Yeah, I think ultimately this means that labor will make a change because they will need an electable leader because unlike how they viewed my former boss Theresa May, or unlike how they viewed Rishi Sunak or even to an extent how they view Boris Johnson, they are scared of Farage. You know, they think he's the devil incarnate. You know, they think he's the sort of, you know, the hard right winger who's going to, you know, come and wreck the country. That's their view. And by their, I mean people who are on the left in the Labour Party, but also voters who are currently voting for the Greens or the Liberal Democrats, two other left leaning parties in British politics, who Labour will need to win back if they want to have a viable contest. There's an interesting poll out last week, earlier this week by a firm called Moore in Common that does a lot of polling in the UK and it found that actually 3 in 10 Green voters would rather Farage Prime Minister than Starmer. And what that says to me, Right, but they also just like they can't stand Starmer, you know, for whatever reason, whether it's Israel, Gaza, whether it's like, you know, what they think him, he stands for, he is not a contender that people on the left are wanting to, to have, you know, a Labor leader should be 95. 5 on that question. And yeah, to answer your question directly, Ryan, I, I think that means that, you know, the forces do eventually pressure labor to choose a new leader and I suspect they end up with a leader a bit more on the left. Not necessarily because the party membership are incredibly left wing. They've actually become a bit more moderate. It's not the party membership that there was under Jeremy Corbyn, for example, a few years ago, which was very far on the left, but more because that sort of populism, that sense of straight talking, that sense of, you know, we can take the fight to. Farage exists more on the left and also they need to win these left wing voters back. So I suspect that does shipping things along a little bit.

[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

And by the way, more in common is a fine pollster. JNL Partners is a much better pollster. The, the, the, it's true. The I read more in Common polls all the time. The the last thing I was going to ask you is there is a by election which in America's a special election. They have a special election for will be our Congress, their parliament in Northern England. Matt Goodwin, who you and I know is standing for the Reform UK Party there and this was in a formerly safe labor seat that labor was never going to lose. And right now in the polls they're underwater. What would a loss in this special election do or in this by election do for Starmer? Would it kick up the whole we need to make a change faster?

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

Could. Well Dave. Yeah, look, if they come a closest second then it'll be fine because I think a lot of labor people have already built in the fact that Reform may well win this seat. You remember in the UK the prior is always you will lose a byelection if you're a governing party. It's very rare.

[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

Let's see that they have over 50% the last time. This is not a seat they should have ever lost. They should ever lose.

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

No, yeah, you're right.

[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

But not unseat them in this seat, for example.

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

No, but by elections are weird and they're artificial and no one is actually thinking about the things that you have to think about at a general election. Nothing's at stake. So it's really easy to do a protest vote. So you know, Labor MPs priors will be yeah, that seat's probably gone. But if they lose badly, then I think it probably does does reopen everything again. And the big thing in that seat is there's another party on the left, the Green Party, who are also vying for that seat. Now if the, if that, that means that Labour could be pushed third and that would be really devastating. That would be devastating. But look, you know, Starmer could get through that wounded. But then, but okay. But then he's got another set of elections in May which for the context for your your listeners. There's local elections in England which is, you know, lots of council seats that are up for for re election. They're basically placed the people that, you know, run towns, run cities.

[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

They'd be like state legislators, more like city council. But mayors, they, they matter a lot in the UK these council seats.

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

Yeah, yeah, exactly. And then there's also the elections to the Welsh and Scottish Parliament, Welsh assembly and the Scottish Parliament. They are pretty close to state governments. State, state legislatures, I should say. And they matter too. Now, you know, Labour is going to get an epic kicking in those elections as well. And that's going to be another reckoning moment for Starmer. So, you know, there are plenty of opportunities for his opponents to make their move. And he's got not just Manchester and Gordon by election, but another electoral test in May, which is. It's haunting him. There's this common misconception out there that, you know, America is the one with all the elections, but actually, if you're Keir Starmer right now, you don't feel like that.

[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

Okay, two. Two last questions. For one, Matt Goodwin, if he was in Parliament, is going to. Oh, my gosh, you thought that Boris Johnson liked the camera. It's not gonna be funny with Matt Goodwin. They'll be there pontificating every second he possibly can. But two questions. What is the Conservative Party doing? Are they gaining momentum and has. Has. Has their leader, whose name literally just slipped my mind as I'm starting to say it, as their leader, managed to gain some more level of support and get her footing?

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

Well, Ryan, it's interesting that because very. When we do our English voter focus groups, British focus groups, many people don't know the Conservative leader's name either.

[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

I can look at her face. I know what she looks like. I'm like, but can we. Can we not?

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

Cami.

[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

Not okay. But American. Give me some. The fact I know half these people is impressive.

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

It is. That is. That is impressive. But, you know, it is. It is. It is a serious point. You know, voters don't know who she is. And it speaks to an irrelevance that the Conservative Party has at the moment, reform is seen as the sort of leading opposition party. Nigel Farage is a big part of that, but he's also won some hefty defections over from Conservatives, particularly Rob Jenrick, who was shadow Justice Secretary under the Tories. He's been a big win for them. He's also won some other prominent figures, too. And, you know, the Conservatives are not on the map right now. Now, there has been. There is a view in Westminster that Kemi Badenok has really turned it around and Conservatives feel much better about things. They say that her ratings are up. They say that she's doing really well at prim as questions. I find it funny listening to this stuff because it. It could not be more different from what I see in the country overall. Her ratings have gone up from. To recover to where they were a year ago. So, you know, she's gone from like minus five. She went down to like minus 20 in the summer, and she's gone back up to minus five. You know, that is hardly the, the stuff of the making of, of political giants. Also, you know the Tory poll rating has stayed firmly around or below 20%. This is the party that has, this is historically the most successful party in British electoral history and it is bumping around at the lowest it's basically ever polled. So there are real problems for the Conservative Party and there are real problems that to me suggest that a lot of this excitement about Kemi Badenoch is a mirage. And the reason is because you cannot lose votes to another party on your right. There's not enough space in our first past the post electoral system in the UK for two right wing parties. It splits the vote and you saw what happened in 2024 with that. Despite only getting 34 of the vote, labor won a massive 150, whatever it is, seat majority and they did that through a split right. The right remains split and if there's anyone who's in a better position on the right, it's. It's Nigel Fraud.

[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

So look, and Boris Johnson would have won a lot more seats had Farage not it's trash stood down. I guess it was 2019 or whatever whenever his landslide election was. Yeah, there was a lot of seats. Now Farage is more of a claim to sit there and tell Kemi to stand down. Then, then she has the other way around. I find it all fascinating. British politics is phenomenal right now. It is the show. You can't. You have to watch it. It's like a soap opera. You have to watch every episode. Thank you so much. Where people go to get more information, what you're doing, your polling, your polling is phenomenal.

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

Yep. So if you follow me on x it's James Johnson 252 and then we've got two handles for the Jail Partners. There's Jail Partners polls for the UK stuff and it'_ l_ partners for our US polling.

[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

Well, thank you so much for coming this podcast. I really appreciate it.

[James Johnson (Political Analyst, Former Pollster for Theresa May)]

Thanks Ryan.

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[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryan@NumbersGame podcast.com that's Ryanumbers plural game podcast.com I actually am. I got a lot of emails now, so I'm going to do a whole ask me anything episode for our next episode on Monday. I will get to all of them, but please keep sending these emails. They make the show so great and really make me feel like I'm connected to somebody because I talk to my producer John all day, just me and him, and I. I think he's getting tired of me. Anyway, so here's the first question. Here's the question of the day comes from Robert. He says, hey Ryan, listening to your podcast for some time now was a little worried of you when I first started listening as I wasn't sure where you fit into the woke right podcaster bro. But you won me over with your straight shooting and common sense. Thank you, Robert. I don't know. No one's ever called me a bro before, period. I don't know what the woke right podcaster bro click is. No one invites me to parties so I wouldn't be part of their click. I get like three Christmas cards a year. You know how depressing that is? Robert, my question is to you. How electable is JD Vance in a primary and general election? My opinion is if he could win the hardcore MAGA right wingers, but not moderate Republicans or independents, and if I'm right, why would the GOP go with him as opposed to Marco Rubio, who is a much more electable candidate? Thank you. All right, Robert, I get this question privately all the time and there are things that Vice President Vance has done that I scratch my head or that his team has done that I scratched my head. And I worked for him, so I know him. I've texted him since he's been vice president. I. I was, I texted him the night of the election. He asked me, how's it looking? And I said, you're the next Vice President, United States. So that was after Loudoun county came in. When that number came in, I was like, it's over. So JD has a large appeal, not just with MAGA right wingers, which he does, but he also has a huge appeal with independence and moderate Republicans. I know that that seems like how is that possible? Advance is personally likable. They think that his. I think the left's narrative that he's weird is unfounded by most people who see an average Midwestern dad. The fact that he's got young kids, his wife's pregnant again, it doesn't turn that many. Like what he has said in the past that was controversial or that, you know, people have issues with either. A people have shrugged off. They don't care. They don't think about it. Or B, the appealing parts of him outrank that. That is unappeal. And I think that, I mean, it comes to approval rating. Vance's approval rating is. Is very closely tied to Donald Trump's. And I think that right now he would win. Right now, as of right now, I think he would win the primary in a landslide. He's up. He would have to compete. There are other Republicans who are gearing up to run. Ted Cruz is gearing up to run. I've heard out rumors that Steve Bannon is looking at running. I've heard rumors that Brian Kemp's looking at running. I've heard rumors that Chris Sununo is looking at running. So there's a lot of Republicans looking to get into this race. He's not going to have no primary challenger, which is good. I don't think Republican voters want coronations, but that is what it is. And the party. There's never been a case, except for Mike Pence in the last election where a former sitting vice president is denied the party's nomination if they pursue it. So it's. It would be a historical. If he pursues a nomination for him not to get. Get it. And he would probably have the biggest appeal. He's gonna be a fundraising dynamo. And Marco Rubio has said over and over again, I'm not running. I mean, that's your biggest challenge. I think that there would be some competition with Rubio was not. If Rubio was a candidate against fans. But he has said over and over again, I'm not running. People have rumored. JD has never told me this. I'm not putting this in his mouth. People have rumored that Rubio and JD Will be on the same ticket together. I don't know if that's true. I'm just repeating what I hear as far as rumors go. If that. If I do hear it, I will tell you guys, but I've never heard that from. From the vice president. And yeah, I think that that's really it. We don't. Rubio is not running. And if he. And there is a chance to give me the ticket with. With. With Vance. And Vance is very popular, not only with the maga. Right. But with the right in general. And it will be very telling as to where JD Takes the Republican Party. Like, it will be very telling where Trump took the Republican Party. And I think the primary process is going to be fascinating when you have real conversations with different fragments of the right as far as ideas go. You know, JD has said things in the past like he believes that pregnancy should be covered by, not birth. Birth and pregnancy should be covered by the government. I think that he said that. I'm pretty sure he said that. But that should be something that no one should go broke having a baby. Steve Bannon come out there. If he's not, if he's a candidate talking about Medicare for all in a really way that Republican voters have not heard before, then you're have Ted Cruz say something very, very opposite of that, those two things and it will be a real, it will allow for a real dynamic conversation over policy that I think we have been starved for because Trump as a man is just the whole show and because sometimes policy can't creep in there. And I think that JD Online can sometimes come off as, you know, a little hard edged. But in the debate against Tim Waltz, I thought JD Was a gigantic home run. I think he'll be a lot more likable and formidable on the national stage than some people give him credit for. And a lot of accusations of who JD Is are not associated with things he's actually done as rumors of what, you know, rumors from other people. There is a cabal of people who do not like him, and I understand that. And, and he has to win them over or prove them wrong or beat them at the ballot box. It's up to him. So that's your longer, shorter. Why are they going to go with JD Over Rubio? Because they always nominate the vice president. It's never not happened aside from Mike Pence. And he was running against Donald Trump. That's why he lost. And Rubio is not running unless, unless Vance doesn't. And I've never gotten a sign that's not going to happen. So we will find out probably within the next nine months, 10 months as the vice president possibly gears up for a launch. And we will be in a very interesting time where the next two years will be him both running for president and being the vice president and the Democrats trying to investigate to try to ruin and sully his candidacy. We'll see what goes on. Anyway, that's the show. Thank you so much for listening. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe in the iHeartradio radio app Apple Podcast. Wherever you get your podcast. I will talk to you guys on Monday. It will be all ask me any things. I'm sure you're going to enjoy it. I will see you guys then and like on YouTube. Thank you.

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[Tara Davis Woodhull (US Olympic Gold Medalist)]

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[Ryan Graduski (Host of Numbers Game Podcast)]

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