The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Texas Going Blue in 2026
Host: Ryan Gradusky (guest-hosting)
Date: February 11, 2026

Overview

This episode, hosted by Ryan Gradusky, dives deep into the shifting political landscape of Texas—specifically, the numbers and narratives fueling speculation that Texas could flip from red to blue in the 2026 elections. The discussion covers not just electoral math but also the heated debates around race, identity, and rhetoric on the American left, and how these issues intersect with Texas politics. Special attention is given to Senator John Cornyn's sagging poll numbers, the influence of Attorney General Ken Paxton, questions about GOP turnout, and if Democrats are poised to capitalize on Republican missteps.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Narratives Around Race and Identity on the Left

00:46 – 20:52

• Media Framing and Progressive Rhetoric:

  • Gradusky criticizes the left for what he calls “lecture, not conversation” regarding race—alleging progressive influencers and politicians "dehumanize" and "other" white Americans, setting up a narrative where white Americans are branded as oppressors whose time is up.
  • He contends the media excuses or minimizes such language, holding conservatives to a much harsher standard.

• Notable Quotes from Public Figures (Audio Clips):

  1. Jean Wu (Democrat Minority Leader, TX House):

     • On communities of color uniting against a shared oppressor:

     “The day the Latino, African American, Asian and other communities realize that they share the same oppressor is the day we start winning, because we are the majority in this country now…” (04:37)

     • Gradusky accuses Wu of dog-whistling against whites, discounting Wu’s assertion that he referred to Republicans (not whites) as the “oppressor.”

  2. Wajahat Ali (Progressive Commentator):

     “You have lost. You lost. The mistake that you made is you let us in in the first place. ...There’s a bunch of us and we breed. …Your story is a shitty story filled with misery... Your music sucks. All your culture sucks.” (07:54)

     • Gradusky calls out the “victimhood as cultural currency” and labels Ali’s rhetoric as divisive, noting factual inaccuracies in his claims.

  3. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA):

     • Gradusky paraphrases Jayapal’s remarks crediting immigrants for building America, dismissing her logic and asserting, “Just because an immigrant has a fraudulent daycare system in Minnesota does not mean that they built this country.” (09:18)

  4. Philadelphia DA, Larry Krasner:

     “This is a small bunch of wannabe Nazis. ...If we have to hunt you down the way they hunted down Nazis for decades, we will find your identities.”

     • Gradusky frames this as violent rhetoric aimed at ICE agents and the Trump administration’s staff.

  5. Bakari Sellers (on Don Lemon’s podcast):

     “We need a more aggressive approach to go in and surgically remove the cancer that is the Donald Trump and MAGA movement.” (13:42)

• Analysis:

  • Gradusky argues that this “anti-white language” sets the stage for “anti-white legislation” and expects more racialized policy from Democrats in power, citing recent moves in New York and Virginia. He claims this strategy quietly continues, even as the national conversation has moved on from the “fever dream” of the post-George Floyd era.

2. The Numbers Game in Texas: Can the State Go Blue?

20:54 – 39:05

Special Election Snapshot

• Background: A Texas State Senate (SD9) special election gave Democrats renewed hope, particularly amidst factors like snowstorms suppressing GOP turnout and local tensions.
• Gradusky welcomes Kellen Jones, senior investigative reporter at the Dallas Express, to analyze developments.

Interview: Kellen Jones on Texas’ Political Landscape

24:09 – 35:57

• Special Election Results:

  • The Democratic upset is overhyped: “This was an off-year special election runoff... Many polling locations were closed during that election, and so it disturbed the execution of the election in a way we haven't seen before. …Democrats had a reason to turn out. They were mad. They were fired up. And the Democrats ran a competent and likable candidate.” (Kellen Jones, 24:25–25:27)

• GOP Divisions:

  • Internal strife, personality clashes, and Republican vote splits defined the special election, rather than a larger realignment.

• Outlook for Statewide Races:

  • Senate Race: Polls show the GOP holds a slim 1–4 point lead over likeliest Democrat nominee Jasmine Crockett. “You would be hard pressed to find a high-quality poll that would show you that Jasmine Crockett is likely to defeat Ken Paxton or John Cornyn...” (Jones, 34:44)
  • John Cornyn’s Vulnerability:
    • Cornyn, long aligned with business interests instead of grassroots conservatives, is “very cozy with the Chamber of Commerce” and increasingly disliked by the MAGA base, who may instead back Ken Paxton.
    • On Cornyn’s predicament:

    “He’s probably one of the weakest Republicans left in the Senate on immigration.” (Gradusky, 29:49)
    “The people who are supporting Wesley Hunt are probably going to line up behind Paxton. They have to get when they have to make a binary choice in the likely runoff election.” (Jones, 33:22)

• Democrats’ Chances:

  • Democrats’ odds still look poor despite high hopes and fundraising efforts outside the GOP’s urban-suburban split.

• Gerrymandering and House Races:

  • Republicans are expected to retain the seats they drew for themselves; districts are expensive to contest but not unwinnable.

On Latino Realignment:

• Jones notes some movement away from the GOP among Latinos compared to 2024 but not a return to pre-Trump Democratic margins. (29:18)

3. Ask Me Anything (Listener Q&A Segment)

39:05 – 48:46

• White Birth Rate Bump (Mary’s Question):

  • Is the increase in births to non-Hispanic white couples actually driven by “a Muslim baby bump” (i.e., Middle Eastern populations being classified as ‘white’)?
    • Gradusky responds: The data doesn't support this: Middle Easterners are a small subset, populations grew even in low-Muslim states, and the rise likely isn’t due to a single group. “Something unusual is happening and I don't know if it's a cultural thing across the country or if it's just, you know, a flare for a moment but the fact that it happened two years in a row is very, very odd.” (40:00–42:30)

• Billie Eilish and “Rented Land” (Greg’s Question):

  • Gradusky dismisses celebrity activism regarding “Native land,” calling it performative hypocrisy: “Billie Eilish doesn’t care about it being on Native American land, otherwise she'd give her house back. …It’s all hypocrisy and it's all performative like most things that white liberals do.” (43:00–45:00)

• GOP Special Election Losses vs. National Polls (Julia’s Question):

  • Why do polls show Trump and Vance are strong, while GOP is losing specials? Gradusky explains national enthusiasm doesn’t guarantee turnout in every contest—especially low-profile specials—and that party popularity doesn’t transfer to every down-ballot race. “Just because someone really loves Donald Trump and they go vote for Donald Trump … doesn't mean they're going to go vote in a special election that's held on a Saturday. …Never underestimate people’s ability to just ignore what's happening.” (46:00–48:00)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Progressive Rhetoric:

  • “Anti-white language is going to be followed by anti-white legislation. Take it to the bank. It already is in New York City, in Virginia, and anywhere else Democrats will sit there and win this November.” (19:45, Ryan Gradusky)

• On Ken Paxton’s Appeal:

  • “Paxton’s a crook, but he’s our crook. …They thought he was a fighter.” (32:21, Gradusky, quoting Texas Republicans)

• On GOP Turnout:

  • “Republicans were discouraged, I think partly by the snow and partly by some of the political happenings we have going on in this district. And Democrats had a reason to turn out. They were mad. They were fired up.” (25:27, Kellen Jones)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Race and Identity Rhetoric: 02:46 – 20:52
• Texas Special Election Analysis: 24:09 – 35:57
• Senate Race & Poll Numbers: 28:17 – 33:45
• Prospects for Dem Upset: 34:17 – 35:43
• Ask Me Anything/Listener Q&A: 39:05 – 48:46

Tone & Language

• Candid, opinionated, and combative—especially regarding mainstream media, progressive Democrats, and intra-GOP tensions.
• Mixes dry analysis with sarcasm (“I always try to stop myself to say sit there, but I did it anyway”) and cultural references (“only souls, cockroaches and Cher last forever”).

Conclusion

While Texas faces demographic and political shifts, Gradusky and guest Kellen Jones maintain that Republican dominance is likely to survive 2026, despite close polls and special election upsets. The real threat, in their view, isn’t just electoral defeat but cultural and legal marginalization of conservatives and whites—driven by what they see as radical, racialized rhetoric on the American left. The episode ends with listener mail exploring demographic quirks, performative virtue signaling, and the difference between polling popularity and election-day results.

For more insights, visit Kellen Jones at DallasExpress.com or follow him on Twitter [@cowtownCaller]. Email Ryan at ryan@numbersgamepodcast.com for future AMA segments.