It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Texas Going Blue in 2026: Cornyn’s Poll Slide, Paxton Factor & GOP Turnout Alert

Summary

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The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Texas Going Blue in 2026
Host: Ryan Gradusky (guest-hosting)
Date: February 11, 2026

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Overview

This episode, hosted by Ryan Gradusky, dives deep into the shifting political landscape of Texas—specifically, the numbers and narratives fueling speculation that Texas could flip from red to blue in the 2026 elections. The discussion covers not just electoral math but also the heated debates around race, identity, and rhetoric on the American left, and how these issues intersect with Texas politics. Special attention is given to Senator John Cornyn's sagging poll numbers, the influence of Attorney General Ken Paxton, questions about GOP turnout, and if Democrats are poised to capitalize on Republican missteps.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Narratives Around Race and Identity on the Left

00:46 – 20:52

• Media Framing and Progressive Rhetoric:

  • Gradusky criticizes the left for what he calls “lecture, not conversation” regarding race—alleging progressive influencers and politicians "dehumanize" and "other" white Americans, setting up a narrative where white Americans are branded as oppressors whose time is up.
  • He contends the media excuses or minimizes such language, holding conservatives to a much harsher standard.

• Notable Quotes from Public Figures (Audio Clips):

  1. Jean Wu (Democrat Minority Leader, TX House):

     • On communities of color uniting against a shared oppressor:

     “The day the Latino, African American, Asian and other communities realize that they share the same oppressor is the day we start winning, because we are the majority in this country now…” (04:37)

     • Gradusky accuses Wu of dog-whistling against whites, discounting Wu’s assertion that he referred to Republicans (not whites) as the “oppressor.”

  2. Wajahat Ali (Progressive Commentator):

     “You have lost. You lost. The mistake that you made is you let us in in the first place. ...There’s a bunch of us and we breed. …Your story is a shitty story filled with misery... Your music sucks. All your culture sucks.” (07:54)

     • Gradusky calls out the “victimhood as cultural currency” and labels Ali’s rhetoric as divisive, noting factual inaccuracies in his claims.

  3. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA):

     • Gradusky paraphrases Jayapal’s remarks crediting immigrants for building America, dismissing her logic and asserting, “Just because an immigrant has a fraudulent daycare system in Minnesota does not mean that they built this country.” (09:18)

  4. Philadelphia DA, Larry Krasner:

     “This is a small bunch of wannabe Nazis. ...If we have to hunt you down the way they hunted down Nazis for decades, we will find your identities.”

     • Gradusky frames this as violent rhetoric aimed at ICE agents and the Trump administration’s staff.

  5. Bakari Sellers (on Don Lemon’s podcast):

     “We need a more aggressive approach to go in and surgically remove the cancer that is the Donald Trump and MAGA movement.” (13:42)

• Analysis:

  • Gradusky argues that this “anti-white language” sets the stage for “anti-white legislation” and expects more racialized policy from Democrats in power, citing recent moves in New York and Virginia. He claims this strategy quietly continues, even as the national conversation has moved on from the “fever dream” of the post-George Floyd era.

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2. The Numbers Game in Texas: Can the State Go Blue?

20:54 – 39:05

Special Election Snapshot

• Background: A Texas State Senate (SD9) special election gave Democrats renewed hope, particularly amidst factors like snowstorms suppressing GOP turnout and local tensions.
• Gradusky welcomes Kellen Jones, senior investigative reporter at the Dallas Express, to analyze developments.

Interview: Kellen Jones on Texas’ Political Landscape

24:09 – 35:57

• Special Election Results:

  • The Democratic upset is overhyped: “This was an off-year special election runoff... Many polling locations were closed during that election, and so it disturbed the execution of the election in a way we haven't seen before. …Democrats had a reason to turn out. They were mad. They were fired up. And the Democrats ran a competent and likable candidate.” (Kellen Jones, 24:25–25:27)

• GOP Divisions:

  • Internal strife, personality clashes, and Republican vote splits defined the special election, rather than a larger realignment.

• Outlook for Statewide Races:

  • Senate Race: Polls show the GOP holds a slim 1–4 point lead over likeliest Democrat nominee Jasmine Crockett. “You would be hard pressed to find a high-quality poll that would show you that Jasmine Crockett is likely to defeat Ken Paxton or John Cornyn...” (Jones, 34:44)
  • John Cornyn’s Vulnerability:
    • Cornyn, long aligned with business interests instead of grassroots conservatives, is “very cozy with the Chamber of Commerce” and increasingly disliked by the MAGA base, who may instead back Ken Paxton.
    • On Cornyn’s predicament:

    “He’s probably one of the weakest Republicans left in the Senate on immigration.” (Gradusky, 29:49)
    “The people who are supporting Wesley Hunt are probably going to line up behind Paxton. They have to get when they have to make a binary choice in the likely runoff election.” (Jones, 33:22)

• Democrats’ Chances:

  • Democrats’ odds still look poor despite high hopes and fundraising efforts outside the GOP’s urban-suburban split.

• Gerrymandering and House Races:

  • Republicans are expected to retain the seats they drew for themselves; districts are expensive to contest but not unwinnable.

On Latino Realignment:

• Jones notes some movement away from the GOP among Latinos compared to 2024 but not a return to pre-Trump Democratic margins. (29:18)

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3. Ask Me Anything (Listener Q&A Segment)

39:05 – 48:46

• White Birth Rate Bump (Mary’s Question):

  • Is the increase in births to non-Hispanic white couples actually driven by “a Muslim baby bump” (i.e., Middle Eastern populations being classified as ‘white’)?
    • Gradusky responds: The data doesn't support this: Middle Easterners are a small subset, populations grew even in low-Muslim states, and the rise likely isn’t due to a single group. “Something unusual is happening and I don't know if it's a cultural thing across the country or if it's just, you know, a flare for a moment but the fact that it happened two years in a row is very, very odd.” (40:00–42:30)

• Billie Eilish and “Rented Land” (Greg’s Question):

  • Gradusky dismisses celebrity activism regarding “Native land,” calling it performative hypocrisy: “Billie Eilish doesn’t care about it being on Native American land, otherwise she'd give her house back. …It’s all hypocrisy and it's all performative like most things that white liberals do.” (43:00–45:00)

• GOP Special Election Losses vs. National Polls (Julia’s Question):

  • Why do polls show Trump and Vance are strong, while GOP is losing specials? Gradusky explains national enthusiasm doesn’t guarantee turnout in every contest—especially low-profile specials—and that party popularity doesn’t transfer to every down-ballot race. “Just because someone really loves Donald Trump and they go vote for Donald Trump … doesn't mean they're going to go vote in a special election that's held on a Saturday. …Never underestimate people’s ability to just ignore what's happening.” (46:00–48:00)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Progressive Rhetoric:

  • “Anti-white language is going to be followed by anti-white legislation. Take it to the bank. It already is in New York City, in Virginia, and anywhere else Democrats will sit there and win this November.” (19:45, Ryan Gradusky)

• On Ken Paxton’s Appeal:

  • “Paxton’s a crook, but he’s our crook. …They thought he was a fighter.” (32:21, Gradusky, quoting Texas Republicans)

• On GOP Turnout:

  • “Republicans were discouraged, I think partly by the snow and partly by some of the political happenings we have going on in this district. And Democrats had a reason to turn out. They were mad. They were fired up.” (25:27, Kellen Jones)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Race and Identity Rhetoric: 02:46 – 20:52
• Texas Special Election Analysis: 24:09 – 35:57
• Senate Race & Poll Numbers: 28:17 – 33:45
• Prospects for Dem Upset: 34:17 – 35:43
• Ask Me Anything/Listener Q&A: 39:05 – 48:46

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Tone & Language

• Candid, opinionated, and combative—especially regarding mainstream media, progressive Democrats, and intra-GOP tensions.
• Mixes dry analysis with sarcasm (“I always try to stop myself to say sit there, but I did it anyway”) and cultural references (“only souls, cockroaches and Cher last forever”).

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Conclusion

While Texas faces demographic and political shifts, Gradusky and guest Kellen Jones maintain that Republican dominance is likely to survive 2026, despite close polls and special election upsets. The real threat, in their view, isn’t just electoral defeat but cultural and legal marginalization of conservatives and whites—driven by what they see as radical, racialized rhetoric on the American left. The episode ends with listener mail exploring demographic quirks, performative virtue signaling, and the difference between polling popularity and election-day results.

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For more insights, visit Kellen Jones at DallasExpress.com or follow him on Twitter [@cowtownCaller]. Email Ryan at [e-mail] for future AMA segments.

Transcript

[Ryan Gradusky]

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[Ryan Gradusky]

Lenovo. Welcome back to A numbers Game with Ryan Gradusky. Thank you guys for being here. Will Texas go blue in 2026? That's the quote question I'm asking today in today's episode. But before we talk about that, I need to talk a little bit about race and identity on the American left. Now I know we're a country that seems to never stop talking about race and identity. It's more of a lecture than a conversation. That's the best thing that the media always says let's have a conversation and then they do a one sided argument. They yell at you the entire time. But something that's going on among attention seeking progressives who are both influencers and politicians where they're talking about white Americans in a dehumanizing way. They're othering white Americans making sure their followers understand that their time, that white Americans time has come and gone and that they're that whites are oppressors who must suffer for the sins of their fathers. They're doing all of this again. First, let me go to a clip that happened last year, but it's been circling over social media, especially over the weekend. This is from the Democrat minority leader in the Texas state House of Representatives named Jean Wu. He's an immigrant from China elected to the state Texas state representatives. Play Clip 1 I think you you've.

[Political Commentator]

Hit exactly the right point. And it's not just Latinos, it's not just Asians, it's not just African Americans. It's everybody, right? We, our country and the forces that be, the powers that be have spent tremendous time, effort and money to make sure that those groups are never united, that they always see each other as enemies and as competitors without ever realizing that they share one thing in common, that their oppressors all are the same.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Right.

[Political Commentator]

The oppression comes from one place. And I always tell people the day the Latino, African American, Asian and other communities realize that they share the same oppressor is the day we start winning because we are the majority in this country now. We are, we have the ability to take over this country and to do what is needed for everyone and to make things fair. But the problem is our communities are divided.

[Ryan Gradusky]

So Wu spoke to the Houston Chronicle over the weekend and he gave some context and he said of course he wasn't speaking about white people, even though very clear dog whistle that you could hear from a million Miles away. No, he was talking about Republicans being the oppressors. Well, if that's true, why didn't he mention working class whites in west, West Texas who earn a lot less than wealthy Asians in the suburbs of Dallas and Austin, who have shorter life expectancy and who work very tough jobs in the Texas heat? It's so obvious on its face. He's not talking about Republicans. He's talking about white people. No matter what he says, because there are loads of minorities in Texas that vote Republican in South Texas is very supportive of Donald Trump. And you broaden up the whole nation. There are, there are groups everywhere except for black Americans that support Republican, that vote majority Republican. So he's not talking about minority, talking about minorities being oppressed by Republicans because minorities are voting for Republicans in large pockets of this country. Now he's talking about white people. And the Houston Chronicle, by the way, bent over backwards, I was in a Twitter spat with the editor there. They were talking, bending over backwards, talking about how he, you know, the, the criticism wasn't fair because he was really not talking about white people. He wasn't trying to hint, hint, wink, wink, dog whistle about white genocide and taking over the country. They didn't have a, they really didn't have a problem with that as much as they should have. And they should have sat there and held his feet to the fire. Now, I know we didn't say that white people were the oppressors. He's leaving it up to the imagination of every person who listens to that video, including his supporters. He was on the podcast, by the way, of a former illegal immigrant whose story, frankly, never made any sense to me because I think there were big holes in it. But he was on the, on a conversation with an illegal immigrant who's made identity and race his entire personality and talked about it at every given moment. So whose audience are you talking to? What are you talking about? The Houston Chronicle said he couldn't have been talking about white people because he didn't name them. As if the only standard we have for judging politicians on what they say when it comes to inflammatory speech is explicitly what they say. President Trump has been accused of racism every second for the last 10 years for things he did not say because that is what the left heard. And yet this man who's talking about minorities taking over the country in a very explicit way, we're supposed to hear something completely different. Now let's go to a progressive talking head, Wajat Ali. He, late last year told white people that they, that Their nation was over. And that they. And that, by the way, their nation is over because they've been too generous to immigrants. That's what he says there and says. And the entire history of Western civilization sucks. Let's go to clip two.

[Wajahat Ali]

You have lost. You lost. The mistake that you made is you let us in in the first place. That's the thing with brown people. I'm going to say this as a brown person. There's a lot of us, like, a lot. There's like 1.2 billion in India. There's more than 200 million in Pakistan. There's like 170 million in Bangladesh. Those are just the people there. I'm even talking about the folks who are expats or immigrants. There's a bunch of us and we breed. We're a breeding people. And the problem is, is you let us in in 1965. There was a few. There were a few of us beforehand. But once you let one of us in, you know what happens with brown folks? Our grandmother comes, our grandfather comes, our uncle comes, our aunt comes, our cousin comes, our second cousin comes, our third cousin comes. Then we have kids, a bunch of kids. And then guess what? Some white women. You know, the Western civilization women, the pure women, the American women, quote, unquote, the Rust Belt women, the real women, they like some of us brown folks, we don't take them. They come to us. So we're embedded. We are everywhere. We are everywhere. I've traveled this country. I'm gonna speak as a brown person. Brown people are everywhere. There will be a Patel motel or there will be a desi restaurant everywhere. I want you to realize this. You have lost. Your story is a shitty story filled with misery. It's filled with bland chicken. It's filled with terrible, terrible dry ass meat. Your music sucks. All your culture sucks. That's why the kids listen to black people and their music. That's why the kids love Latinos. Your parties suck because they're monochromatic. Our parties have better food, better music, better looking women.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Right? It's the reason why constantly brown people like Wajat's family decided to move to a majority white country. Because it's so terrible. Because our narratives are so bad and because our history is so bad. For those of you who don't know who he is, which you're better off before listening to this podcast, Wajad Ali's parents immigrated from Pakistan in the 1980s, and he says he's been scarred by America because his parents were arrested and convicted of over 30 counts of conspiracy, mail fraud, wire fraud and money laundering. While Ali has repeatedly said in his book and other events that anti Muslim sentiments after 911 were the reasons for the convictions, his parents pled guilty along with two white guys. Two white guys were also co conspirators who were pled guilty and they have a European surname. So I don't know how anti Islamic feelings after 911 would possibly be the reasoning that these two white guys also face jail time and why they pled guilty. But victimhood is cultural currency and what and this man knows that. That's how he plays into the white guilt for his white liberal audience and his other audience and trying to embold them. And he promotes narratives that aren't true, but they feel good or they make someone feel bad. That's the greatest irony. I mean, his numbers, his statistics that he put out there on birth rates are completely incorrect. His statistics on what kind of preferred music is popular is incorrect. You know, that's. But that doesn't matter. The numbers don't matter, the facts don't matter. The narrative matters. And if you want to see a hilarious clip of him, watch the I've mentioned this episode before because it's just so good. The Mary Trump podcast. When Donald Trump wins the presidency and he thinks that Trump's going to, you know, Kamala Harris was going to sweep this election. It's very, very funny. But of course he also says that that rant was just simply taken out of context. He wasn't sitting there and saying that the country was over. He wasn't trying to radicalize young white people. And he certainly doesn't understand why young white men are so far right wing than they used to be. It couldn't possibly be because of people like him. No, it must be someone else because everything, everything is taken out of context. Then there's also a congresswoman, Representative J. Powell from Washington State, who has some very interesting opinions about American history. Play Clip 3. The majority of Americans across the country, regardless of political party, know that immigrants from all over the world, Somalia, India, wherever they're from, Latin America, Africa, that immigrants have built this country and make this country what it is today. Just because an immigrant has a fraudulent daycare system in Minnesota does not mean that they built this country. Some immigrants did build this country. Some immigrants were very, very prosperous. Some immigrants built fabulous businesses. And some immigrants children built fabulous businesses. That doesn't mean every class of immigrant has. That doesn't mean that every group of immigrants since 1965 has. That doesn't mean that America could be easily replicated by the different people on, you know, different countries. We don't have magic dirt. No, the American people built this country. The American people whose majority of which as recently as 2010 date back to the founding of this country. At least one ancestor built this country. Jay Powell also said that once Democrats get in charge, she's going to sit there and push to abolish ICE and Border Patrol. Come one, come all, to this Halloween ball, this is what Jay Powell wants. Congressman Jay Powell. And of course, it's nothing. What she says, by the way, is nothing compared to what Philadelphia D A Larry Krasner said about what they want to do with ICE agents. Play Clip 4. This is a small bunch of wannabe Nazis. That's what they are. In a country of 350 million, we outnumber them. If we have to hunt you down the way they hunted down Nazis for decades, we will find your identities. We will find you. We will achieve justice. This is going to be the left push that people who worked for Trump. And even if they were just ICE agents, even if they just work for the Department of Homeland Security, they should be jailed. They are going to January 6th, everybody. That's what their goal is. This is violent, violent rhetoric. They view these people as others and as some of the worst people in human history. And then there's Bakari Sellers, who I used to be on CNN with a few times, who said that he liked me. I don't remember when. Well, he said that on Twitter. I don't remember him ever coming to my defense when Abby Phillips was attacking me relentlessly. But he's a friend of former Vice President Kamala Harris. He was kind of an advisor to the Vice President Kamala Harris. And he said something very interesting on Don Lemon's podcast. He said that the country needs to be, quote, fumigated from MAGA and it needs to be surgically removed from the country. Play Cliff five. You know, Joe Biden was somewhat of a bridge. He was supposed to be a bridge or a palate cleanser or somebody who morally and ethically was antithetical to who Donald Trump was. You know, Uncle Joe was the nice guy, older white guy, comes in and you want to eat ice cream with him, Right? Well, I think what that episode in our country's history showed us is that we really needs fumigation, right? We need exorcism, for lack of a better term. We need a more aggressive approach to go in and surgically remove the cancer that is the Donald Trump and MAGA movement. This is not an accident. I want everyone to realize I played a lot of clips, more than I usually never play clips. But this is not an accident. Any of this language is not an accident. Of course, when they're pressed, they're going to sit there and say it's taken out of context. Don't worry about what your eyes or ears tell you. This is not, not true. What you're hearing is not true. We're all just good and we're playing around and it's, it's light and it's interesting, but it's not really dangerous speech. And then their friends in the mainstream media will have them on the air. I'm sure Bakari will be back on CNN much sooner than I will be. And he will sit there and, you know, just, just play it off as if it's nothing. No one will even question on it. See, Democrats and progressives for the most part came out of the 2024 election cycle and said, wow, we really got a little wild out there for a while. Maybe we shouldn't have said all the things we said about race. But it's clear all these clips were happened since the election. They meant every word of it. They meant everything they said during the height of the 2020 George Floyd riots. They want to erase borders. They want to rewrite history. They want to otherize white Americans, including Jews. Mind you, I know a lot of Jews, liberal Jews, not conservative Jews, but liberal Jews who sit there and say, well, I'm not really white, I'm Jewish. As if that's going to be a get out of jail free card. No, you are lumped right into the camp of white people, just like Persians are in a lot places, just like Armenians are. We're all in the skin, the same white whiteness camp, I guess, together. Once they come into power, they want to put in laws, they want to put forward laws that are discriminatory, racially discriminatory against whites. And they're not, they're not hiding it once they get into power. It's just going slightly unnoticed in New York City, Mayor Mandani said during the campaign trail he wanted a property tax system that punished whites more than non whites. Now what he was saying, I know that that was the headline that got news. What he was saying on how New York City property tax is conducted currently actually made a tiny bit of sense. Older homes are taxed at a lower price than newer homes are. Which pun. Which gives tax breaks like Bill de Blasio. But that's not how he framed it. That's not the conversation he wanted to have about wealthy people buying old brownstones versus working class, middle class people buying newer condos or apartments or, or, or houses. No, he talked about it in the racial context because that was what he cared about. Racial justice was economic justice to him. In Virginia, Democrats have put forward legislation that discriminates against white men for government contracts. The fever dream with a post. Floyd. Radicalism hasn't gotten away. It's just gotten a lot quieter. You're just not hearing it so often. But every once in a while they slip up and they tell you, and then when they get into power, they show you. And while whites continue to become a smaller percentage of this country because we've had birth rates below replacement levels since the 1970s, they will continue to be an economic powerhouse. What happens in many countries when there's an economic dominant minority is that they're preyed upon, that they're blamed, they're discriminated against. And the left is setting up this language today. I know that it's not where people expect me to go to have, you know, this podcast. I'm not a doom and gloom person. I'm not a fire and brimstone person. But Jean Woo, I guess, set me off a little bit because it's so clearly obvious. And the fact that the Houston Chronicle sat there and said, well, let's really talk about how Ted Cruz reacted to it rather than what Jean Wu actually said shows how pathetic the media is. The fact that Bakari Sellers is back on CNN any day of the week that he wants to be. The fact that half of these people are accepted in polite company, anti white language is going to be followed by anti white legislation. Take it to the bank. It already is in New York City, in Virginia, and anywhere else. Democrats will sit there and win this November. I know I just said, sit there, and I always try to stop myself to say sit there, but I did it anywhere. Democrats win in this November. Let's talk about an election. Let's talk about the great state of Texas. This special election in Texas has opened up the, you know, open up the idea that Texas is in play, especially, you know, with incumbent Senator John Cornyn down significantly in the polls, especially in a runoff. He's down really badly in a runoff. A lot of donors already considering cutting him loose. Recent polls by the NRSC found that Cornyn only wins against Democrat James Tularico by 3 points. A poll by the University of Houston put every potential matchup within the margin of error. And Republicans are worried if Ken Paxton, Attorney General Ken Paxton, who's a controversial figure for many reasons. I'm not going to go into a whole Kenneth Paxton episode. If he is the nominee that Democrats have a chance of winning the state. Now, remember, I mean, I may know everyone outside Texas. Like that's so far, you know, far fetched. Trump won Texas by a huge margin, and he did. But remember, in 2018, in the last midterm, Democrats came within 2 percentage points of beating Ted Cruz. So what could happen this year and the special election in the Texas state Senate are giving Democrats even more hope. Polls suggest the worst candidate for the Democrats is Jasmine Crockett. So that's who I've told all my Republican friends to go vote for. Because Texas doesn't have strict party registration, you can kind of vote for any primary that you want, but this special election is giving them all hope. So will the Lone Star State go blue? That's what we're talking about next.

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[Ryan Gradusky]

Kellen Jones is a senior investigative reporter at the Dallas Express. He knows a lot about Texas. Thank you so much for being here, Kellen.

[Kellen Jones]

Thank you for having me, Ryan.

[Ryan Gradusky]

So my first question for you is, what does this special election in Texas mean for Republicans in November?

[Kellen Jones]

You're of course talking about the SD9 race. Yeah, well I live funny enough in that district. It's being interpreted right now as a big upset that maga's over. This is the sign that Republicans have given up on Trump. One thing I would like to point out, and I have done in my reporting on this matter is that this was an off year special election runoff and it happened during January. And what typically does not happen during Texas's elections is we don't get snowstorms because we don't have them in January and many of the polling locations were closed during that election and so it disturbed the execution of the election in a way we haven't seen before. Republicans were discouraged, I think partly by the snow and partly by some of the political happenings we have going on in this district. And Democrats had a reason to turn out. They were mad. They were fired up. And the Democrats ran a competent and likable candidate. And in.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Did you say, though, that. Would you say that there were things that are divor. Obviously, the national environment's not great for Republicans, but would you say there were things happening in this election that were unique to this election? I've heard from people on the ground that the Republican with a virtually unpronounceable last name, you know, the fight between her and the former mayor of the. His or her Republican primary opponent, turned down support. Things that don't have implications for a statewide election.

[Kellen Jones]

Certainly there is a battle of personalities and of ideology going on in this. In the Republican primary, in this race, in the former Republican or. There wasn't a primary. It was three people running against each other. Was Wambsgans. That's how you say it. It looks pronounced.

[Ryan Gradusky]

I've mispronounced it many times now.

[Kellen Jones]

It's Wambsgones. Lee Wambsgans was Republican. John Huffman was the other Republican. He was the former mayor of Southlake, and they were running against Taylor Remt, who was the Democrat union boss. And of course, the Republican vote was split and the general election vote was split three ways, which forced the runoff. It cost a lot of money. And there's sort of an ideological difference coming out of the suburbs. There's the Trump base, which is with him 100%. And Trump, of course, at the very end, endorsed Wambsgans. And, you know, the MAGA people were there, there. But some of the softer managerial class moms in the suburbs did not necessarily support Wambscons. And there were reasons for that, one of which being the potential split of the school district in isd. Now, I'm actually a graduate of Keller High, and this was a very controversial issue. From my understanding of the issue, Wambsgans and some of the other people, people that ended up getting painted with this, did not necessarily know about this beforehand. This kind of spilled out of the Keller ISD school board with no preparation to the public. This was, in their view, sprung upon them. And the battle was over whether to break Keller ISD into several, possibly two or more districts, with Keller High kind of anchoring the Keller district and then some of the other.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Basically an economic split between the wealthier parts of the town and then the working class parts of the town. Definitely create a lot of bad blood and tension. Okay, so here's the main part of it. Right outside this election, are Republicans in trouble losing any statewide seats in Texas in this year for the first time in 25 years?

[Kellen Jones]

You know, the number one you would think about is the Senate race. And there was a poll out from the University of Houston just yesterday and it showed whoever the Republican nominee is is going to win between one and four points and a head to matchup against the likely Democrat nominee, which is Jasmine Crockett, the congresswoman from Dallas.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Yeah, I've told all my Republican friends to vote for Jasmine Crockett.

[Wajahat Ali]

What?

[Ryan Gradusky]

Well, I mean, she's definitely the easiest one to beat in this election. So I mean, Texas is definitely not the, I mean, when it comes to winning the majority for the Senate, Democrats are looking at North Carolina and Maine, but they still need to pick up two seeds and I was one of them. And Texas and Texas and Alaska are the other two. Texas has 2018 was a very close year for Ted Cruz. They were expecting there was a big pushback, especially among Latinos. Are Republicans feeling nervous about a similar pushback this time among the Latino population?

[Kellen Jones]

There does seem to be some realignment amongst the Latino population, but they're not returning to the numbers that we've seen in the past. They're not returning to the Hillary numbers. There may be some decrease the polling is signaling, but it's not that the Latinos have completely given up on Republicans. Now. They, they may not get the numbers they got in 2024, but presidential elections are a little bit different than midterm Senate elections.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Yeah, well, I mean, I know I was just in Texas. I was actually in Dallas. I should have given you a call, but I was there for like 18 hours. So it was a very brief trip. But when I was there, it's interesting. Texans are very Texas Republicans, as you say, are very aware of the immigration issue changing, especially the Dallas area. Right. There's a huge influx of Indian immigrants, a huge flux as a Muslim population in Texas. There's the epic city which those who don't know there was trying to build like basically a Sharia city in, in Texas. And it's a conversation that everyone's kind of having. And yet you still have among the Texas delegation a lot of swishes, John Cornyn being one of them. John Cornyn is incredibly weak on immig. He's probably one of the weakest Republicans left in the Senate on immigration. Where is this disconnect between the voters and the, and the electeds coming from? Is it all just money and Donors, or what is it?

[Kellen Jones]

Well, John Cornyn is very cozy with the Chamber of Commerce, and of course, the Chamber of Commerce, as you know, is suing the president to halt the $100,000 H1B fee. So the feelings of Cornyn's donors and his voters are very far apart. Now, Cornyn has been able to skate by for many decades on kind of the support of the long gone, now sort of Bush establishment that's been in decay for many decades. But now there's sort of a reckoning because people are very frustrated with him. And the MAGA base in Texas feels that they could soon be without a major ally in the Senate. Of course, Marsha Blackburn is running for governor of Tennessee. Tommy Tuberville is running for governor of Alabama. And there's a thinning out in the Senate and in the House of sort of the MAGA base. And they view this as their opportunity to get their guy in who appears generally to be Ken Paxton. I'll make one more point on this is that voters in Texas are connected at a personal level with Paxton in a way they're not connected with Cornyn. Cornyn may be a name they know because he's been around 30 something years, but during that impeachment hearing, a lot of people bonded with Paxton because they viewed it as a railroading, sort of in the same style of the indictments brought against President Trump. They are emotionally connected to him at a visceral level that they are just not connected to John Cornyn or Wesley Hunt.

[Ryan Gradusky]

When I was in Texas for Brandon Gill's race, I was his GC for his run, his first run. And the word on the. The word on the street was always, Paxton's a crook, but he's our crook. That was what Republicans told me. I mean, you don't have to say that was what verbatim what they told me was, he's a crook, but he's our crook. And they thought he was a fighter. And it's weird that Cornyn. There's a lot of establishment Republicans in the United States Senate. I mean, Lindsey Graham, you don't get more established than that. Lindsey and Graham managed to marry himself to Donald Trump in certain respects and managed to evade criticisms in certain areas because he became so closely aligned to Trump, who I'm sure he disagrees with, like viscerally disagrees with. But that is what he did to survive politically. John Cornyn never did that. And it's very strange that he kind of maybe thought he was going to outlast Trump. So, I mean, Is this the end of Cornyn that we're seeing?

[Kellen Jones]

All the polling would suggest that he may make it to the runoff, but the people who are supporting Wesley Hunt are probably going to line up behind Paxton. They have to get when they have to make a binary choice in the likely runoff election.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Is there a chance of a Hunt vs. Paxton runoff? There is.

[Kellen Jones]

There is. The polling doesn't suggest most polling and the more recent polling doesn't suggest that's likely. I think Wesley Hunt, based off the University of Houston poll, either has slightly higher favorability or right on par. They're like within a few points of each other on favorability. But the thing is, is that Wesley Hunt is not a known commodity to the public in the way Ken Paxton is or in the way John Cornyn is. Many people did not hear of him before he jumped into this ra.

[Ryan Gradusky]

Okay, last question. Do Democrats have anything going for them in terms of a possible upset? Like if is there a possibility in which way that Democrats have a perf? I mean, I know that the other, the other Democrat, not Jasmine Crockett, has raised a lot of money, although people aren't supporting him. And I know that there are a lot of other seats up for grabs. Is there any possibility Democrats sit there and pull, pull a rabbit out of a hat?

[Kellen Jones]

Well, I don't want to sound like the Huffington Post on the morning of the election in 2016 and Hillary has a 99% chance of winning. It's in the bag for Hillary, but the odds are very strongly in the Republicans favor. You would be hard pressed to find a high quality poll that would show you that Jasmine Crockett is likely to defeat Tim Paxton or John Cornyn or Wesley.

[Ryan Gradusky]

And with the gerrymander that they just had, is there any chance them losing one of these new House seats? Is there any chance of the Democrats losing one of the Republicans losing any of the House seats that they drew for a Republican seat, or do you think that's pretty safe? They've done a good job.

[Kellen Jones]

I think they've done a good job. They've made these races very expensive in the way they've gone the seats. But I don't think they've made them unwinnable. And I think they're likely to win in Texas. The mood on the ground in Texas is that the Republicans are going to get the seats that they drew and they're going to get this. They're going to maintain their Senate seats.

[Ryan Gradusky]

All right, Callum, where can we go to read more about you? What you do and all your stuff.

[Kellen Jones]

You can find me at the Dallas Express website, which is www.dallas express.com and you can always find me on Twitter.

[Ryan Gradusky]

At cowtown Caller Kellen, thank you for coming this podcast. I really appreciate it.

[Kellen Jones]

Are you right?

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Is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? When you buy business software from lots of vendors, the costs add up and it gets complicated and confusing. Odoo solves this. It's a single company that sells a suite of enterprise apps that handles everything from accounting to inventory to sales. Odoo is all connected on a single platform in a simple and affordable way. You can save money without missing out on the features you need need Check out [e-mail] that's O D O O.com.

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[Ryan Gradusky]

Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryan numbers game podcast.com that's Ryan numbers game podcast.com numbers plural I have a number a lot in the doc, but I am going through them one by one. I will get to your question if you haven't heard it yet. First one comes from Mary. Mary brings up an op ed that I wrote for my substack, the national Populist newsletter about the the birth rate and the increasing births of white couples having children, both a white a non Hispanic white father and non Hispanic white mother. And why that that was such an anomaly in the overall numbers where you see numbers declining among all groups except for biracials. And she says hi Ryan, Given that the most people from the Middle east are classified as white, could this baby bump be a Muslim Baby bump? That's thanks Mary. Mary's great question. So there were about 3.5 to 5 million Middle Easterners. Not all Muslims are classified as white, right? By the way, just Middle Easterners. There are about 3.525 million Middle Easterners in America. They predominantly live in Michigan, California, New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts. Now remember, when you say Middle Easterners, that includes Lebanese Christians, that includes agnostic people. That includes not just Muslims, right? Israeli Jews, perfect example Middle Easterners. So they're not all Muslims, you know, by the fact that they're Middle Eastern. Secondly, because the overall population grew in almost every single state including like Upper New England, like Vermont, Maine and New Hampshire, which is very low Muslim population. It increased in the Deep south and increased in Ohio and Pennsylvania and Vermont. And like in Kentucky, these are places that have very, very low Muslim populations. I take it back in Kentucky. Maybe it didn't grow in Kentucky, but I have to look that up but it grew in most other parts of that have very, very low Muslim population. So if it was just a Muslim thing you would see the numbers being connected with the states that have large Muslim populations like I thought originally oh, it must be because of ultra religious communities like Amish and Orthodox Jews and maybe like traditional Latin mass Catholics and Mormons. But it's not, it doesn't, it doesn't correlate with just one population living in one area. I don't know the reason why I'm going to explore it as the numbers come in for 2026 and we can sit there and start break taking down more data but something unusual is happening and I don't know if it's a cultural thing across the country or if it's just, you know, a flare for a moment but the fact that it happened two years in a row is very, very odd. So I will let you know as I know more. But no, it's not simply just because Muslims are having more children. And also I think I'm pretty sure most Muslim birth rates are now at or below replacement levels in the United States. They're not very high. People, people think when they hear Muslim birth rates that everyone's Afghanistan, where they do have a lot of children and in fact most parts of the midd are now settled around like 2.5, 2.6 children per woman. Most parts of Northern Africa even have now slipped below replacement levels. So it's not like most Muslim countries are even having tons of kids like they used to. Sub Saharan Africa is the extreme third world like Afghanistan is. But they're not. They're people's opinions of how Muslim birth rates are very outdated. Okay, second question. Hello Ryan. This comes from Greg. He says as a big question, big Billy, as a big fan of Billie Eilish's music and a fan of ice. I'm not going to educate her on her opinion because she's wrong on stolen part. And actually we're living on a rented land and that's not just Americans, that's our entire planet. We also pay taxes for our land on our property and we're not going to live forever. Okay, so he says. So as, so as we mock Billie Eilish, yes, she's on rented land from a population probably live there but she herself, well she herself and all of us will probably not live on the current land within one to 200 years. What are your thoughts? I think, listen, I don't know about the whole rented land thing. I guess we're all just temporary in our own skin. And only souls are forever. But souls, cockroaches and share. Right, those are the three things that last forever. But the, the, the thing about Billie Eilish, the thing about Sabrina Carpenter was clapping like a trained seal. The thing about Bad Bunny and all the rest of these things is like people are trained to want to feel good, to say the right thing. Billie Eilish doesn't care about it being on Native American land, otherwise she'd give her house back. She would, she would self deport to Ireland or England or wherever her family's from. She has no interest in doing that whatsoever. And it's all just to sit there and show a group of people like, hey, I'm a good white person. And the irony is, is that Billie Eil, Sabrina Carpenter, these are multi, multi millionaires who have far more ability to give back or to do something for populations of Native Americans than other people do, than indigenous Americans than other people do. I mean, the poorest population in the country are Native Americans who live in South Dakota. Some of them don't have running heat correctly and they don't have proper refrigeration. There's amazing articles written about the devastating poverty in South Dakota. They don't do a thing for them. They don't care. They want to cater and to tell middle class, working class and upper class white people, you should feel bad. You should want to do more. I'm not, but I'm going to say the right thing so your kids can sit there and say, well, this is what I should be doing. It's all, it's. I don't say it's brainwashing, but it is brainwashing. It's all performance art. It's all performative. Nothing about this is authentic or real. Billie Eilish has made a good song or two. I don't hate her. I don't, I don't think about her. But it would be great if the next person on stage at the Grammys after she said that, said, okay, Billy, give your, give your house away. Give your house. The Native American tribe that lived there, they're still around. You could do that. But of course she's not going to. It's all hypocrisy and it's all performative like most things that white liberals do. Okay, Liberals in general. Don Lemon has a white husband who sits there and talks about how white supremacy is terrible. Okay, last question comes from Julia. She writes, I'm enjoying the show as always. It keeps me, it keeps me accompanied My commute to work. Oh, I hope you have a good day at work today, Julia. I'm thankful for your New York sense of humor. My question concerns the Republicans are doing badly in special elections. For example, in Texas district that we talked about today that went strongly for Trump in 2024 just swung left. That's troubling. But then on X, I regularly see clips of Harry Anton from CNN reporting on how strong the numbers are for Trump, how J.D. vance is at 84% ratings. Is this a disconnect? How can Anton of all people report the strength of the GOP if apparently is losing all these special elections? Please explain, Julia. I hope you have a wonderful day at work and I will explain. So Trump and Vance are popular within the Republican Party. One that doesn't mean that every person running for reelection is popular within the Republican Party. There's a number of people that are not that popular. You know, Dan Crenshaw is not super popular. Corey Mills is not super popular within his own party. Randy Fine is not super popular in his own party. So it doesn't always transfer over to the person running for office. Secondly, there are more people in the country than just Republicans. So voter enthusiasm of voter turnout mean a lot. Just because someone really loves Donald Trump and they get out and they go vote for Donald Trump in a primary general doesn't mean they're going to go vote in a special election that's held on a Saturday. Something I still don't understand why Texas, Texas is holding special elections on Saturdays truly boggles my mind. But they don't go vote on a Saturday or they're not informed that there's even an election going on. You never underestimate people's ability to just ignore what's happening. They're busy with their own lives. They got kids, they got work, they've got, you know, sports teams, fantasy football. Who knows what's going on. So that is, that's the condition of why they're losing. And when you look at if they prefer, if people prefer the solutions from the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, they usually pre Republicans. It's just that certain things are not as Americans expected them. We're very, I don't want to say angry, but we're a very frustrated population. We expected the economy in different places. The unemployment rate for young people, including people who got good jobs, is very high. People are nervous about AI people are nervous about cost of electricity, other things. So it's a b. There's two parties. It's not like we live in the Netherlands, where there's 30 and you can choose one or the other. There's only two to pick from. So so what happens when the party gets into power? The opposite party usually wins because people are saying, oh, I wanted to be better. It is what it is. It's a fact of life. But it does. But what Harry and saying about Trump and about Vance are true. Vance is very, very popular among Republican primary voters. He's a very, very likely nominate next nominee if he chooses to run. And Trump is still very popular among Republican Party voters. And that's that. That does not mitigate from the fact that people are very angry at the president and the party a lot of times over economics up or feeling that he's not looking at the right issues, that he's not focused enough on the interior of the country. He's doing so much on foreign policy. Anyway, that's this today's show. Thank you so much for listening. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe in the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast. Wherever you get your podcasts, like and subscribe on YouTube. Give me a thumbs up if you like this video and please make sure you tell your friends and family I'm trying to grow this show, hoping to take big things in the end of this year and into next year. So please like and subscribe and I'll see you guys on Friday.

[Jacob Goldstein]

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[Ryan Gradusky]

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