The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: "It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Texas Political Scandals, Primary Chaos & the Gonzalez Affair Fallout"

Date: February 20, 2026
Host: Ryan Gusky (substitute/guest host)
Guest: Tony Ortiz, founder/writer, Current Revolt

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the chaos and intrigue of the 2026 political landscape—particularly in Texas—with sharp focus on recent voting trends, the fallout from political scandals, and the state of key primary races. Ryan Gusky delivers a blend of hard data, gossip, and candid analysis, while guest Tony Ortiz pulls back the curtain on the Tony Gonzalez scandal, Texas political figures, and campaign dynamics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. National Primary Polling and Race Overviews

Timestamps: 02:39 – 17:52

• California's Jungle Primary:

  • California's top-two jungle primary has a crowded field: 16 Democrats, 9 Republicans, & several minor party candidates.
  • Democrats risk splitting the vote so much that two Republicans (Steve Hilton, Chad Bianco) might advance to the general—an unprecedented scenario.
    • “There is a shred of light…that the top two contenders coming out of this jungle primary are both Republicans.” (Ryan Gusky, 08:10)
  • Dems are deeply divided among high-profile candidates (Becerra, Porter, Steyer, Swalwell, etc.), splitting union and PAC support.
  • Polling: Independents prefer Trump’s immigration policy by 12 points in California.

• Oregon, New Hampshire & Maine:

  • Dem incumbent Tina Koteca only leads Republican challenger by 5 points, but state fundamentals still favor Dems.
  • New Hampshire: Republicans dominant locally, Governor Ayotte holds double-digit lead.
  • Maine: Senator Susan Collins shows minimal lead in polls but has repeatedly outperformed polling in past cycles.

• Arizona Governor’s Race:

  • Democrat Katie Hobbs leads Andy Biggs by 9 points; Andy Biggs likely to secure GOP nomination.

2. Texas Primary Turnout & Early Voting Trends

Timestamps: 14:36 – 17:52

• Historic early voting numbers; turnout up over 200% in major counties like Travis, Dallas, Tarrant, and Williamson.
• Dem turnout especially high in Dallas, attributed to surges in Black voter engagement.
• “Democrats are turning out big numbers for this primary. They are jacked up.” (Ryan Gusky, 15:12)
• Speculation that high Black primary turnout is boosting Jasmine Crockett’s Senate bid—GOP insiders hope this continues, viewing her as a weaker opponent in the general.

3. The Tony Gonzalez Scandal: Timeline & Fallout

Timestamps: 20:55 – 32:26

3.1 The Tragic Incident

• Tony Gonzalez, a South Texas congressman, embroiled in scandal after aide/mistress Regina Santos Avilez died by suicide (self-immolation).
  • “It all started when I got the lead that this had happened...via self-immolation, so via fire. Which is a horrible, horrible way to die.” (Tony Ortiz, 21:56)
  • The mother denied it was suicide, citing Catholic beliefs and accidental cause—a claim reporters found implausible.

3.2 Evidence of an Affair

• Allegations confirmed via staff and husband:
  • Text messages (iMessage) proving the affair.
  • Husband produced tens of thousands of messages showing timeline, emotional fallout, “ghosting,” and employment implications.
• Ortiz describes the office environment as one where everyone knew about the affair.
  • “According to the staffer, everybody knew about. Everybody in the office. Okay, what's going on? Right?” (Tony Ortiz, 27:32)

3.3 Political Fallout

• Major newspaper pulls endorsement; establishment figures and Texas GOP in holding pattern, waiting to see if more evidence surfaces.
• Gonzalez's main primary challenger: Brandon Herrera, YouTuber, nearly unseated him in prior cycle by less than 500 votes—now poised for an upset amid new scandal.
  • “Last cycle, Gonzalez almost lost by 400...Herrera almost beat Gonzalez...Now you’ve got this huge scandal.” (Tony Ortiz, 32:26)
• Trump’s endorsement of Gonzalez (made before revelations broke) has become a political liability but remains in place—so far.

4. Texas GOP Primary Drama: Crenshaw, Flores, Cornyn & Paxton

Timestamps: 32:26 – 42:52

4.1 Dan Crenshaw’s Risky Primary

• Facing Steve Toth amid “real serious concern” among local party actors.
• Comedy of campaign: Gusky reports donors offering millions for a stronger Crenshaw challenger.
• Campaign weirdness: Crenshaw hires SEO firm to manipulate Wikipedia pages for candidate reputation.

4.2 Myra Flores’ “Career Candidate” Embarrassments

• Flores cut loose by Trump team; she’s now running for the fourth time, dogged by personal and fundraising scandals (“Grubgate”—posting fake food pics; excessive campaign salary; allegations of personal trips expensed to campaign; rumored affair with Rep. Corey Mills).
  • “She’s taking a salary. It’s so rare for a congressional account to take a salary…” (Ryan Gusky, 35:59)
  • “We’ve kind of coined the term candidate as a career and that’s kind of what she’s turned her race into.” (Tony Ortiz, 36:10)

4.3 The Senate Runoff: Cornyn, Hunt, Paxton

• John Cornyn’s re-election very fragile; donors wavering due to poor polling, risk of not winning runoff.
• Scandal: Cornyn’s comms director doxxed opponent Wesley Hunt, who filed a police report.
• Paxton’s messy personal life and popularity with Texas conservatives: colorful stories of marital disharmony, affairs, and family drama.
  • “Everyone in Texas always says the same thing to me. They say, you know, Ken's a crook, but he's our crook.” (Ryan Gusky, 41:40)

Notable Quotes:

• “If you ask Grok to make you an image of a candidate, it would never come up Brandon Herrera.” (Ryan Gusky, 29:13)
• “President Trump has not pulled that endorsement…a lot of people are kind of in a holding pattern.” (Tony Ortiz, 30:01)
• “I did not know how bad the blood was between him [Paxton] and his ex wife.” (Ryan Gusky, 41:02)

5. Texas Democrats: The Crockett-Talarico Showdown

Timestamps: 43:08 – 46:35

• Crockett banking on huge Black turnout; accused primary rival Talarico of racism, though intra-party accusations haven’t gained traction.
• Crockett campaigns with Kelly Rowland (Destiny’s Child) for Black woman voters.
• Talarico’s media hiccup (purportedly “censored” segment on Colbert) led to a fundraising surge and online conspiracy chatter.

6. Other Notable Texas Races

Timestamps: 46:35 – 47:32

• Attorney General: Intense four-way race (Chip Roy, Mazie Middleton, Aaron Wright, Joan Huffman)—Ken Paxton backs Aaron Wright.
• Endorsements: Ted Cruz backs Chip Roy, which still brings weight in Texas.

7. Ask Me Anything – Listener Mailbag

Timestamps: 50:46 – 60:24

• Concerns about GOP suffering major losses in the midterms; host argues that swing districts are now fewer, blowout losses much less likely than past cycles. “Feelings matter more than facts sometimes. I try to dismiss that in this podcast. I try to give you guys facts and numbers, but feelings matter a lot…” (Ryan Gusky, 52:24)
• Discussion of populism in US/EU context, JD Vance’s positioning, and foreign policy postures.
  • “Populism is an argument between those who are the workers and those who are the elite. Right? That is the main essence of populism.” (Ryan Gusky, 55:40)

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• “Don’t. Where you eat, kids. It’s never worth it.” (Ryan Gusky on workplace affairs, 28:19)
• “If elections were run on twitter.com, [Aaron Wright] would already have it in the bag.” (Tony Ortiz, 47:15)
• “I am a brash, you know, hard as nails New Yorker. Who doesn’t—I mean, I get three Christmas cards a year for a reason.” (Ryan Gusky, 59:04)
• On the Texas Senate race: “Republicans are praying, including myself, that Crockett wins because not only is it entertaining, but she doesn’t really have a real serious chance of winning.” (Tony Ortiz, 45:35)

Summary Table of Major Texas GOP Figures Discussed

| Name | Role/Office | Major Scandal or Risk | Primary Status/Notes | |-------------------|---------------------------|------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------| | Tony Gonzalez | Congressman, South TX | Affair & suicide of staffer/mistress | Strong primary challenge, Trump endorsement | | Brandon Herrera | YouTuber, Challenger | None (colorful outsider) | Nearly unseated Gonzalez previously| | Dan Crenshaw | Congressman | Facing real primary threat (Steve Toth) | Increased MAGA pressure | | Myra Flores | Ex-Congresswoman | Personal & finance scandals ("Grubgate") | Cut loose by Trump; serial candidate | | John Cornyn | Senator | Campaign doxxing scandal; "RINO" label | At risk in a tough runoff | | Ken Paxton | Attorney General | Affairs, family drama, popular with base | Still strong backing among base | | Jasmine Crockett | Congressional candidate | Criticized for weak general election polling | Big Black voter turnout in primary|

Conclusion

This episode offered a whirlwind tour through the numbers, narratives, and “tea” of the 2026 political season, especially in Texas. From explosive scandals unraveling long-shot races to unexpectedly competitive primaries and the shifting sands of party alliances, listeners received a data-rich, candid—and at times, gossipy—packet of insight indispensable for anyone trying to keep up with the rapidly shifting state of American politics.