It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the 2025 Battlegrounds: How Energy, Enthusiasm, and Elections Collide

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the 2025 Battlegrounds – How Energy, Enthusiasm, and Elections Collide
Date: October 20, 2025
Host: Ryan Graduski (filling in, in a special "Numbers Game" episode)
Guest: Albert Eisenberg, Principal at Redbridge (PA political firm)

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Overview

This episode dives deep into the emerging numbers and trends shaping the 2025 elections, particularly in New Jersey, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Ryan Graduski analyzes recent polling, mail-in voting enthusiasm, the impact of energy costs—especially from the expansion of data centers—on electoral politics, and shifting party allegiances in key battleground states. Special guest Albert Eisenberg provides an insider perspective on Pennsylvania politics, John Fetterman’s precarious position within the Democratic Party, and demographic shifts affecting party strength.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Data Centers & Energy Costs: A Surging Populist Issue

(03:06–08:15)

• Emergence as a Top Voter Issue:
  • Graduski asserts that rising electricity prices due to data centers is now a major concern in NJ and VA.
    • “On September 8, more than a month ago, I did a whole episode on how the number one issue going to the elections in New Jersey and Virginia was the rising cost of electricity because of data centers.” (03:34)
• Democratic Struggles to Address the Issue:
  • Quoting progressive strategist Faiz Shakir:
    • "The people are way ahead of the politicians." (04:18)
  • Even progressive politicians are sensing grassroots frustration over unchecked energy prices and resource use.
• Potential for Political Realignment:
  • Graduski predicts this will morph into a massive issue, especially for voters rooted in their communities:
    • “Republicans better not be caught flat-footed when it is a massive, massive issue...” (06:58)

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2. New Jersey: Polls, Enthusiasm, and Voter Turnout

(08:15–15:11)

• Polling Updates:
  • Latest Fox News/Beacon Shaw poll shows Mikie Sherrill (D) up by 5 over Jack Ciattarelli (R), an improvement for Ciattarelli.
  • Other polls (Fairleigh Dickinson, Quinnipiac) show Sherrill leading by 6–7 points.
• The 'Enthusiasm Gap':
  • Ciattarelli voters report far greater enthusiasm (55%) versus Sherrill’s (42%).
    • “That’s a 13 point gap.” (11:22)
  • Minority voters (who have been a target for Sherrill) are voting at lower rates in the mail-in ballot stage.
    • “Majority black districts...22% returned their ballots, 20% of Hispanics...just 20% of Asians...” (12:15)
    • “Compared to 32% of white voters in white-majority precincts.” (12:30)
• Mail-in Voting Advantage:
  • Sherrill banking a Democratic lead of ~130,000 in mail-in ballots.
• Ciattarelli’s Hurdles:
  • Needs to do better with independents according to polling "fundamentals."
• Republican Opportunities:
  • If Democratic enthusiasm remains low, turnout could swing tighter than polls suggest.

Memorable Line:

• “If they’re not anxious to return their ballot when it’s mailed to their home, what are the chances they’ll be excited enough to leave their house on Election Day?” (13:05)

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3. Virginia: GOP Momentum?

(15:11–16:57)

• Polling Trends:
  • Trafalgar poll suggests Republican momentum for Attorney General Kenneth Jason Miyares (+5% over Democrat Jay Jones).
• Debate Dynamics:
  • Jones attempts to nationalize the race, invoking Trump 40 times in a one-hour debate.
• Republican Progress:
  • GOP hopeful to see more substantial polling evidence before declaring a “monumental swing.”

Quotes:

• “The election is a referendum on Jay Jones and his horrible text messages. Jones said the election was about Trump.” (15:47)

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4. Election Enthusiasm Reflects Broader National Trends

(16:57–18:16)

• Socialist Candidates Exhibit Resilience:
  • Mandani in New York is gaining steam, while standard Democratic candidates need outside reinforcement.
  • Obama campaigning in VA; millions poured into NJ.
• Implications for 2028 and Pennsylvania:
  • Focus shifts to John Fetterman’s future and wider implications for party coalitions.

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5. Pennsylvania Spotlight with Albert Eisenberg

(18:16–35:22)

A. Fetterman's Democratic Dilemma
(18:45–22:52)

• Democratic insiders preparing a primary challenge against Senator John Fetterman.
• Eisenberg: “If the Democratic primary was held today in Pennsylvania, Fetterman would lose.” (19:24)
• Fetterman's differences from the Dem base: immigration, Israel–Palestine.
• Channeling Sinema: “The obvious parallel is... what the Democrats did to Kyrsten Sinema.” (19:47)
• Fetterman’s Possible Future:
  • Could run as an independent, “caucus with the Republicans and keep voting pro-choice, pro large welfare state... essentially be a centrist.” (22:33)

B. Labor and Demographic Realignment (22:52–25:09)

• Old school labor still sides with Fetterman; white-collar/progressive unions may not.
• Working-class districts (ex: NE Philly) showing GOP momentum:
  • “We doubled our Republican representation in Harrisburg... by flipping a state Senate seat.” (24:02)

C. Party Registration and Structural Changes (25:09–29:41)

• Dem registration lead in PA shrank by 500,000 in four years.
• New Republican voters emerging via automatic registration.
• Growing suburban, college-educated population benefits Dems.
• Black/Hispanic turnout and rightward shift helps GOP.

6. Supreme Court & Swing State Status

(29:41–32:05)

• PA Supreme Court:
  • 2025 retention election likely maintains Dem majority.
• Pennsylvania as the New Ohio?
  • Eisenberg: "Pennsylvania continues to be the Keystone State... New Jersey is trending right. But I think Pennsylvania is going to maintain its status." (31:30)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "The people are way ahead of the politicians." – Faiz Shakir via Graduski citing Semaphore (04:18)
• "If they're not anxious to return their ballot when it's mailed to their home, what are the chances that all the other people are going to be excited enough to leave their house on election day..." – Ryan Graduski (13:05)
• "If the Democratic primary was held today in Pennsylvania, Fetterman would lose." – Albert Eisenberg (19:24)
• "There has not been somebody to successfully run up the middle... Even though... people are craving sort of normal, pragmatic... problem-solvers." – Albert Eisenberg (27:00)
• "Working black and Hispanic voters have moved to the right in significant numbers." – Albert Eisenberg (31:01)
• "Black voter turnout has really collapsed in places like Harrisburg, in majority black wards in Philadelphia... gap of up to 20% that is dooming Democrats." – Albert Eisenberg (34:09)

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:06 – Start of key discussion; voting reminders; Graduski on energy/data center issue.
• 08:15 – New NJ polling; enthusiasm/turnout gaps; demographics of mail-in voting.
• 15:11 – VA polling analysis; comparisons to prior elections.
• 18:16 – Introduction of guest Albert Eisenberg; Pennsylvania section begins.
• 18:45 – Fetterman’s standing in the Democratic Party; details on potential primary challenge.
• 25:09 – Discussion of registration shifts and election outcomes in PA.
• 29:41 – PA Supreme Court—implications for congressional map-drawing.
• 30:55 – Is PA the new OH? Demographic realities and future trends.
• 32:05 – The effect of automatic voter registration and turnout; “missing white vote”.
• 34:09 – Black voter turnout decline in PA explained.
• 34:53 – Where to find more from Eisenberg and Redbridge.

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Tone and Style

Ryan Graduski approaches the numbers-heavy episode with characteristic wit, directness, and a dose of self-deprecation ("I have very, very few talents in this life... I was a great bra salesman at Victoria's Secret when I was 18 years old"). The episode is a blend of hard electoral analysis, anecdotal trivia, and humorous asides, typical of both the Numbers Game format and the broader Clay Travis and Buck Sexton show ethos.

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Conclusion

For listeners wanting to understand both the granular mechanics of the 2025 battleground elections and the broader demographic and populist forces in play, this episode offers a data-driven, insightful, and at times irreverent guide. It suggests that underlying numbers, turnout enthusiasm, energy politics, and party affiliation shifts will dramatically shape not just the immediate electoral outcomes, but also the political coalitions of the next decade.

For more:

• Albert Eisenberg: yourredbridge.com
• Ryan Graduski’s podcast: [Subscribe via iHeart or Apple Podcasts]
• Contact: ryanumbersgamepodcast.com

Transcript

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[Ryan Graduski]

Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. Happy Monday. There are just 15 days to the upcoming 2025 local elections. If you haven't made a plan yet, but make a plan, vote by mail, vote on election Day, or vote early in person. Just make sure your voices are heard early voting matters. Local elections matter. So make a plan and get in a vote. Before I go into some numbers, I want to take a moment and brag because I try very hard. I work really hard to try to make my audience the most informed they possibly can be, more informed than the average people who listen to podcasts. And I have very, very few talents in this life. I was a great bra sales, Victoria's Secret, I was 18 years old and I'm really good at predicting future political trends as they're about to happen. But they haven't happened yet. On September 8, more than a month ago, I did a whole episode on how the number one issue going to the elections in New Jersey and Virginia was the rising cost of electricity because of data centers. Data centers are responsible for two thirds of the increasing electricity prices in New Jersey and they've added tens of millions of new homes worth of electricity in in the Virginia grid. There are just then just a few days ago, Dave Weigel, who writes for Semaphore, he wrote an article called as Electricity Prices Rise, Both Parties Blame data centers. There's a quote from the article. Faisha Kier, an advisor to Senator Bernie Sanders and the founder of the progressive group A More Perfect Union, said many Democrats were sleeping on the issue that had ignited grassroots activists. More Perfect Union has worked on with data center opponents in multiple states sharing similar stories of worry about about energy costs and resource waste. Sanders has begun asking attendees of his quote fight oligarch meetings about AI and data centers, and he found there's very little political support for them. For any Democrat who wants to think politically about opportunities, Shakir said the people are way ahead of the politicians. He also goes on the article. Weigel goes on the article to sit there and say how he met local activists in Virginia who are supporting the Democratic nominee for governor, but Republicans locally who based on who's Ever most against building new data centers in Virginia. The rise this is a rising populist issue. One that people who are rooted in place, people who have lived in the same place for decades or they plan to live there for decades, they're going to, they move to a certain place because they, they're going to have their grow, they raise their children there or maybe they've been there for generations, will be increasingly angry over this issue. We working class people will, will have up till now they have always looked at the tech innovations in your life as being fairly innocuous. Even though we know that the tech companies, you know, they steal our data, that they, you know, sell our data, that they, you know, they take our photos for social media profiles that they're selling us. Right? If you don't buy a product, you are the product. That's the old phrase, but it has not negatively truly affected anyone's life. It's going to be different. When you talk about loss of jobs from AI, young kids not being able to get jobs or happening in this economy right now and increasing electricity prices and the possibility of shortages of water in some of the southwest because of the data centers cooling. Listen, you don't have to take my word for it. Just remember I said it. I said on September 8 people are following up with it now. I'm regurgitating it here in October. I'll talk about it more. But this is a trend that will get bigger and Republicans better not be caught flat footed when it is a ma like a massive, massive issue that everyone's talking about. Okay, now to some numbers. After about a week or two of just a drought, speaking of droughts, a drought. In polling we've gotten some new numbers and it's very exciting. First, in New Jersey there is a brand new Beacon Shaw poll released by Fox News and it has Democrat Mikey Sherrill leading Republican Jack Cittarelli by five points. This is a three point jump for Cittarelli in the last month. Among what they've modeled as likely voters, Mikey Sherrill leads Chittarelli 50 to 45. That's down for Cheryl. It's up for chitterelli. That was 5042 last month. Among registered voters, her lead is even smaller. It's just four points, 48 to 44among both registered and likely voters. All the movements of undecided voters have gone in Cittarelli's favor. Mikey Sherrill still leads, but Jack Chitterelli seems to have a lot of things breaking in his direction. Now some of you may have Caught this on cnn. Harry Enten, who I actually, anyone who works at cnn, I respect him probably the most. I think he does a really good job breaking down data to make it understandable. He said that Cittarelli is doomed because he ultimately needs to win over a bigger fraction of Harris voters. Since Harris won the state by about six points. He has a point, but I think that he's missing something that is concerning Democrats in the state of New Jersey and that's voter enthusiasm. A fairy Dickerson and Quinny Piak poll that was released this week. They were basically in line with Fox News Fairline Dickerson had Mikey Mikey Cheryl leading by 7. Quinny Piak had her leading by 6. Very similar to the Fox News poll. But one thing that they found was that there is a serious double digit gap in excitement over who they're voting for. 55% of Jack Chiarelli voters say they are very enthusiastic to support him compared to only 42% of Cheryl voters. That's a 13 point gap and there is a 14 and sorry. And 14% of Mikey Sheryl voters say they are not enthusiastic about voting compared to just 8% of Jack Chittar rally voters. We're seeing this in the data, in the mail in voting. A key group of people that Mikey Sheryl has spent the entire year trying to get excited, to convince to vote for her that were supportive her in the primaries has been minorities. Minorities did not want this rich white lady from a very elite town being their nominee and they are dragging their feet to sit there and vote. My buddy on Twitter named Cynic, he breaks down data and he's a great job of it. He found that precincts in New Jersey that are majority white are voting on average 10 to 12 points at a greater frequency in the mail in voting than districts that are majority minority. So either majority black, majority Hispanic, majority Asian, majority black districts are voting at 22%. They've 22% return their ballots, 20% of Hispanics have returned their ballots and just 20% of Asians have returned their ballots. That's a big difference compared to the 32% of white voters in voters in white majority precincts who have returned their ballots. My point has always been if they're not anxious to return their ballot when it's mailed to their home, what are the chances that all the other people are going to be excited enough to leave their house on election day or early to get out to go vote? If it rains, if it snows, if they have a flat tire, if their kid is Sneezing or whatever the case may be, that is not a great indicator. So it's not that Citarelli has to win over Harris voters. Harris voters have to show up. And right now in the mail in data it looks like there is a little reluctancy. Now it's not all good news for Chitterelli because Cheryl Mikey Sheryl is building up a massive voter advantage in the mail in ballots. She has sat there and has 130. There's 130,000 more Democrats who have submitted a mail in ballot that than Republicans. So she's going to go on election day with 130,000 vote lead in both the Quinny P ack and the Fox News poll and the fair line ticker symbol, mind you, Chitarelli has a lead among independents but it's not enough that he would have to have to win in all the polls. He has a mid single digit lead and in the polls previous that had him tied, he would need a 20 point lead. Right, which is of course possible. But these later polls that show him in a a small single digit deficit, that's because he's not doing what he needs to do among independents to sit there and win. I also want to mention that there's a Republican leaning firm named Insider Advantage that also came out with a poll that found Mikey Cheryl leading. But she was only leading by one point in that in that poll. It's a relatively new firm so I'm not putting a ton of stock in it because I don't know enough about their fundamentals. They were, they were very, very good in 2024. They're one of the most accurate pollsters in 2024, so I'm even mentioning them. But I want to see more before I sit there and say, oh, this is the poll you should trust. Now, just looking at the fundamentals of the state, Mikey Sheryl has the advantage of voter registration. There are still more Democrats than there are Republicans. Even though that number is shrinking. There are still 855,000 more Democrats than Republicans. That's 150,000 more Democrats than Chris Christie was first elected in 2009. It will be very interesting to see on November 1st if voters, if Republicans are gaining more new voters than Democrats are yet again they've been doing that almost every single month on the fundamentals, Mikey Sherrill, the Democrat has the advantage, but all the momentum is going to Cittarelli. We will have to see if there's enough time and enough things to break in his direction before election day. As for Virginia, we only have a few polls and they're mostly Republican leaning firms. There's a Trafalgar poll which was very accurate in 2021, not so accurate in 2022, accurate in 2024. They have shown a sizable momentum moving in favor of Republican Attorney General Kenneth Jason Miares. He has a solid five point lead over Democrat Jay Jones, who you know is very, he's got scandal ridden Jay Jones. I watched the debate. It was fine, but it was actually very, well, respectable. Miara said the election is a referendum on Jay Jones and his horrible text messages. Jones said the election was about Trump. He actually mentioned Trump's name almost 40 times in a one hour debate. Obviously he wanted Democrats to come home and ignore everything he said in those horrible text messages. The poll also found that in the race for the lieutenant governor that the race was essentially tied and that Winston Sears was only down two points, that. Now listen, Trafalgar has nailed a lot of races that no one else saw coming. I'm not dismissing them as a poll. I want to see something else that shows this monumental swing towards Republicans. Before I sit there and say, guys, this is, you know, it could happen. I don't, I don't know that I, I, it's, that it's an outlier. It's worth paying attention to. It's a piece of data. I want to see more. I was on the Clam Buck show last week and Clay asked me, rather Buck asked me if these elections from Mandani in New York and the race in New Jersey and the race in Virginia were signs of the midterms. I said, no, they're not signs of the midterms. They're signs of the 2028 election cycle. Because the only candidate you see not losing steam at the very end is the socialist candidate is Mandani in New York. He's been picking up steam in some of these polls. The acceptable Democratic candidates in New Jersey and Virginia, they're having to be bailed out and have that reinforcements come save them. You know, Obama's campaigning in Virginia. Democrats are pouring millions dollars into New Jersey in the last minute. More than anything, though, I think this gives insight into the titular swing state of Pennsylvania and John Fetterman and whether or not he can survive a primary challenge, whether he might become a Republican. I will explore that next.

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[Ryan Graduski]

With me on today's episode is Albert Eisenberg. He is the principal of the Red of Redbridge. Let me try that again. I'm not the Redbridge. Okay, with me on today's episode is out. I'm sorry. With me on today's episode is Albert Eisenberg. He is the principal at Redbridge. It's a political firm in Pennsylvania that has worked on a number of big races and does outreach with groups that are flirting with being a Republican. But I haven't given a hard commitment yet. Is that a fair, fair description, Albert?

[Albert Eisenberg]

Yeah, the term I'm using in my business is they rent, rented, but did not buy. Yes, well, I like flirting.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, well, I think that's, I think that's a little more interesting. So Albert, there. So first of all, there was a story in Axios about Democrats preparing for a primary challenge against John Fetterman. In a Quinnipiac poll that was released in a few weeks ago looked at Fetterman and he was very popular in Pennsylvania with, with exception of one group, Democrats. Democrats have really turned on John Fetterman, which is strange given how much he votes with the party. What is the story in pa? Are Democrats really organized and committed to this primary challenge?

[Albert Eisenberg]

Well, the story nationally is that we're living in an era of aesthetic politics. It is not that he votes with Democrats, it's that he sounds like an apostate when he talks about immigration specifically and the Israel, Palestine war. So Fetterman's what people like about Fetterman, who are not liberal Democrats, is that he's willing to buck his party and speak sort of reality focused, unabashed messages on pretty key central issues where Democrats are very out of step with the nation as a whole. And that's a problem with the Democratic base. And the media sort of echo chamber has yet to heat up against him. The obvious parallel is going to be what the Democrats did to Kyrsten Sinema, who ended up abdicating her seat. And now we have a more sort of liberal bomb thrower in. Ruben Gallego in Arizona flirted with the independent run, but ultimately there wasn't a path there. If the Democratic primary was held today in Pennsylvania, Fetterman would lose. And there are ambitious younger Democratic congressmen, three of them are named in that piece by Holly Otterbein and Axios, who are angling from different parts of the state to Replace Fetterman and primary him and we'll have to see what he decides to do before 2028.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, it's crazy because Fetterman was the Bernie bro like this was. This was arguably Fetterman's election to the Senate was arguably the Bernie bros Biggest victory, electoral victory. They actually had a statewide elected, which they had never accomplished before in the Senate. And because I guess besides Bernie, obviously, but aoc, all these other House members, the squad, they're all House members. There's really no senators like that. Elizabeth Warren is not part of the squad. She's just, you know, she just says she enjoys mental masturbation a lot, but she's not part of the squad. There are, there are, but Fetterman was an open Bernie support quarter. And I think that, I think the vengeance for Fetterman comes because the betrayal feels so real. The fact that Israel.

[Albert Eisenberg]

Yes, certainly. I mean the, the people that ran his campaign were the most progressive, aggressive. They had no qualms about papering over his obvious health issues when he had a stroke just as the nasty Republican primary was resolving itself. Now he's obviously in a much better place mentally when you listen to him now versus a few years ago. But then all these stories have leaked about his mental health or his cognitive abilities. So they have no, you know, they view it as a betrayal. It sticks in their craw. And they're going to try and operate against Fetterman the same way they operated against cinema. The playbook is there. The problem for them is that the vibe has shifted and the year is different and the mainstream legacy media has less of a monopoly on the information the voters receive. And Fetterman, you know, he says he's going to stay a Democrat. He has been approached by Republicans, will continue to be approached by Republicans. He might do. If, I mean, if I were him, I would do what Angus King does, a reverse of that and say, I'm going to be an independent, I'm going to caucus with the Republicans and I'm going to keep voting pro choice. I'm going to keep voting, you know, pro large welfare state, sort of economic populist tone. I'm going to support Israel and its existential battle. I'm going to support rational immigration policy and basically be a centrist candidate. And you see in his polling of independents and Republicans, it's working.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. And that the craziest thing is, is that he has an abandoned night. I mean, he's for his position on immigration is to the left of where Bernie's was in 2016. I mean it was Bernie Sanders said mass immigration was a Koch brothers pipe Dream in 2016 and was much more pro worker. Now the difference in Arizona and Pennsylvania is specifically it's organized labor. Organized labor is way more powerful in Pennsylvania. Has organized labor abandoned? Abandoned, not Bernie abandoned there?

[Albert Eisenberg]

Yeah, I think Fetterman has done a really good job with the labor unions. There's obviously right now a split that you've had your finger on that political analysts can see between sort of the public sector, you know, white collar workers type unions, the ask me's as well, and the labor unions, you know, the steel guys who are really into this Nippon deal, the auto workers, the people that are actually rolling up their sleeves. I think Fetterman's tone, I can't speak to his connections and you know, right, right side and the conversations he's having with teamsters and auto workers and steelworkers, but the tone fits for those hard hat guys. And my money is on the more left leaning, more progressive unions absconding and, and going with whatever viable, more left, you know, challenger there is. And that's going to be Connor Lamb or Brandon Boyle. I'd be surprised if it was him.

[Ryan Graduski]

Or Brandon Boyle has taken some very right wing stances on immigration. He has just surprising because he represents Philadelphia city proper.

[Albert Eisenberg]

Yeah, but he represents a part of Philadelphia that I've worked in, that I came up in. Politically, I'm from Philly. That has swung. It's, it is the political realignment in action. It's you know, working class, multiracial, multiethn, ethnic, multi religious. And these voters have swung right to a significant degree over the last few cycles. And in fact we doubled our Republican representation in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania State Capitol last November by flipping a state Senate seat. It was the only state legislative flip to Republicans in the state of a district of Northeast Philly that's very working class. It abuts the Brian Fitzpatrick, but 25.

[Ryan Graduski]

Year olds who did it, right?

[Albert Eisenberg]

Yeah. Joe Pacosi, now state Senator Joe Pacosi.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, he, I, I, I met him and he was like, I'm gonna wear my sneakers to like to the, to the ground. And I think he actually died. I think, I think he told me, he's like, I knocked on every door like three times in the whole entire district. So what, what ultimately Fetterman is looking at, the problem that Fetterman is going to have in 2028 when he runs is that he's gonna have the same problem that, that Andrew Cuomo has. The middle, the Democrats who were Democrats because Their parents were Democrats because they belong in a labor union, are either dying, moving to a retirement home in Florida or their children are Republican. Like there's no connection as that movement has come. And Virginia, sorry, Pennsylvania Democrats have lost about 500,000 registered voter registration advantage over the last four years. How does Fetterman, I mean, the only people who want to be Democrats at this point, really, really also want to have trans children. There is a very big, like the Venn diagram is very overloaded at this point. How does, and you know, I mean, you said that Fetterman would, could possibly become an independent who votes in the middle and hopefully gets an endorsement from somebody. How does Fetterman also possibly avoid the Sherrod Brown? How does he avoid being the last Democrat left? Because everyone in the state is a, is a Republican statewide except for the governor, lieutenant governor and one senator.

[Albert Eisenberg]

Yeah, I mean, Pence. So there's a lot in there as far as Fetterman. He has a political vehicle problem, which is basically in the last century, you need one of the major parties, you need to be their nominee and then you need to go onto the general election and you need to win. He has said he does not want to switch to being a Republican. I don't see a space, although I think it would be smart if the PAGOP said, hey, flip to being a Democrat and we won't run anybody against you. That would be smart. But there has not been somebody to successfully run up the middle. Even though in poll after poll and you know, anecdotal conversation after anecdotal conversation, people are craving sort of normal, pragmatic, you know, people who are problem solvers, who are not bombasts, they're not throwing bombs from the left or right. So his issue is not popularity. Clearly. The Knipiac poll you mentioned, he's, he's, he's above water with a number of key groups. It's the vehicle. And the Democrats, I can guarantee you are going to be successful at primarying him. And he's not going to have the vehicle to run as John Fetterman, Democratic nominee. And there's never really been somebody who's lost that primary and then run as an independent with somebody to the right and the left and succeeded. So he would need to have that infrastructure behind him. And a lot of the people who have talked and floated, you know, the Larry Hogan of the world, the Andrew Yangs of the world, haven't actually executed to build that infrastructure. That being said, we're living in a whole new political paradigm so it's possible, I think there's a path there for him. So that's your question about Fetterman and his, and his path to the future. It's not about popularity and sort of his policies down the middle. It's about the vehicle that he's going to, it's going to be attached to his name to be on the ballot for voters. As far as Pennsylvania, it is truly a purple state, tinged blue. 2024 was a high watermark. We took home all three row offices, attorney General, Auditor General and Treasurer. We flipped the U.S. senate seat. It was the only U.S. senate flip in a swing state and one of the seven swing states. Dave McCormick won by a margin of just under 16,000 votes, which is very, very teeny tiny. But we do. So we have a lot of Republican representation right now, but it really is a purple to left leaning state. Republicans are making registration gains everywhere from Philadelphia to northeast Pennsylvania, ancestrally Democrat, where we flipped a sort of progressive congressman, old school, you know, long standing guy, Matt Cartwright out of office to Rob Bresnahan. And we have four congressional toss up seats in 2026. So it's the most in the country. So all eyes are going to continue being on Pennsylvania. Republicans are making registration gains. As you've noted before, the people who want to have a trans kid are also the people that think voting is a dogma and a religious sacrament. Those people are going to be super activated voting. So both sides have their relative advantages and it's, it's really going to be a, you know, bloody fight.

[Ryan Graduski]

Okay, so two last two questions. One, what is going on with the 2025 Supreme Court election? Because that is really important because these people will be probably drawing the next map for the Pennsylvania congressional districts in 2030.

[Albert Eisenberg]

Definitely. So that is a key question that we have. An activist Democratic run state Supreme Court, a 5 to 2 majority in Pennsylvania. There's a question about retainer which is a little confusing to the average voter. Effectively we're voting whether to retain or not three Democratic justices based on where the voting base is right now and the energy is in the off year. My strong guess is that Democrats vote yes on retention and that those justices prevail and we have to move on to 2026 and work really hard to persuade more voters and turn our base out. So that's what I would guess would happen with the state Supreme Court.

[Ryan Graduski]

Okay, that's interesting. So, and then finally is, I mean there's this saying that's online and I don't know how much I believe in it. I kind of do. Kind of don't do. There's the saying that Pennsylvania is the new Ohio and New Jersey is the new Pennsylvania. Do you take any stock in that? Like that? Pennsylvania is just a red state waiting to happen and then New Jersey is a purple state waiting to happen.

[Albert Eisenberg]

I think that's a very cute thing to say. Pennsylvania has exploding suburban affluent communities in the southeast collar counties around Philadelphia, south central Pennsylvania around Lancaster. Greater Harrisburg has exploded. People who are commuting to D.C. these are people without roots in Pennsylvania. These are upper, you know, bachelor's degree at a minimum. Those populations are exploding. The rural white population is declining and most, you know, of our two thirds of our counties are rural. So that helps Democrats. What has helped Republicans and why we narrowly flipped the state in 2024 is that working black and Hispanic voters have moved to the right in significant numbers. And working black voters, their turnout has dropped significantly versus the state as a whole. So it's countervailing trends. Pennsylvania continues to be the Keystone State. It's the largest swing state. It's going to remain that way. It encapsulates a lot of the country's populations, problems, opportunities. I think New Jersey is a very interesting state that is trending. Right. But I think Pennsylvania is going to maintain its status. And I'm not just saying that because I run a business there.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, no, well, listen, Florida doesn't count anymore. I think the one thing that I agree with everything you said about the Hispanics and the black vote and whatnot. I think the thing that no one that people underestimate is that in 2016 there was an article written for 538 that I remember called the Missing White Vote. It was about, I think it was like 2 or 3 million non college educated Americans in Pennsylvania who were not even registered to vote. And when the governor did automatic voter registration, we will got their licenses. The number of Republican registrations surged because it's the guy. It's for lack of a better phrase, but it's Billy Bob who's never registered a vote all of a sudden has to, well, what is going to register? I'll be a Republican. And I think that that also saw a huge pickup. And also people re registered their licenses and they were voting Republican, but they were a Democrat. You know, on paper they sat there and so they were like, oh, I'll make the change. I don't think people understand how much Josh Shapiro's position to make automatic voter registration backfired the same way it happened for Kemp In Georgia in reverse got a lot of blacks who didn't vote register to vote and they voted Democrat. In Pennsylvania, Shapiro got a lot of white, white people who were not college educated to sit there and vote and register Republicans. So that's my opinion. I don't know if you have a change on that.

[Albert Eisenberg]

Yeah, I mean, you know, file it under high on their own supply that whole Democratic everyone needs to vote, rock the vote, turn out everyone. Now they know that that actually helps Republicans and it's going to keep helping us both in the off year and the midterms and in the next presidential. So, you know, the situation nationally has changed so much as we have a more working class people who are not addicted to politics and being online all the time when we turn those people out will win more elections as Republicans and certainly on the, on the margins, those policies matter. One thing that's very interesting is that black voter turnout has really collapsed in places like Harrisburg, in majority black wards in Philadelphia, in majority black wards in Chester City in Pittsburgh has gone down from 2 to 10% since, since Obama's reelection in 2012, while the state's turnout has surged by 10%. So that's a relative gap of up to 20% that is dooming Democrats. And what's that, what's that telling us? It's the canary in the coal mine. Working black voters are saying I'm no longer engaged by either party, which is a catastrophe if you're winning them 92 to 8. And now they've started to shift to the right. So working voters of all backgrounds really are going to be the plus and the MAGA plus coalition. They're going to determine whether we're able to take home statewide wins and keep our congressional seats that we flipped.

[Ryan Graduski]

I love the term MAGA plus. Never heard it. Albert, where can people go to read more about you and Redbridge and what you guys do?

[Albert Eisenberg]

You can find us online@your redbridge.com Our firm has put the political realignment into action very uniquely in Pennsylvania. Nationally, we take all these trends that you talk about every episode and put them into action for campaigns and causes. Very excited about the work. So check us out your redbridge.com and you can find me on Twitter X depending on whether you've switched over your nomenclature at Albe Delphia. A L B Y D E L P H I A.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, thank you so much for coming on this podcast.

[Albert Eisenberg]

Thanks for having me, Ryan.

[Ryan Graduski]

You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. We'll be right back.

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[Ryan Graduski]

Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment of this podcast. If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryanumbersgamepodcast.com that's ryanumbers plural numbersgamepodcast.com I love these emails. They really get the show interesting and going. And please send them to me whatever questions you could possibly have about basically anything. This first question comes from Gary from Wisconsin, a lifelong Mets fan, he points out. He says since you mentioned you might do a non political episode of the show, which I did on Thursday, he said maybe you could talk about the baseball playoffs. It might be interesting how many times the team with the best record brewers this year go all the way. How often the wild card teams win it. Does pitching out do good hitting? I think it'd be very timely and I don't feel like looking it up. Lol. Okay Gary, I appreciate thank you for your email. Thank you for listening. I cannot tell you how little I know about professional sports. It would actually baffle you. You would think, is this man being raised in America? Like it is shocking how little I know. I grew up as a Yankees fan, but like I liked players. I loved Bernie Williams and Tina Martinez and I'm like Chuck Knobloch, Derek Jeter. I mean I love, I grew up with the dynasty Yankees, the Yankees that won four World Series in five years. But then they got old and retired. And then I got old and stopped making baseball a big part of my life. And now like, if I get invited to a sporting event, I go because like, oh, I love live sports. It's fun, it's entertaining. But I don't watch it. I couldn't. I probably, I mean there's a few players I probably know, but I couldn't. I, I couldn't, I couldn't do it. I'm sorry. I would give, I mean I would have to be like literally reading a Google search because I don't know enough about it and I would have to spend so much time learning about it. I've done a sports episode on this podcast before, but I had the super bowl and the money behind the super bowl is very interesting. So maybe I'll do another super bowl episode. I don't know. I'll think about it. Email me if there's anyone else who wants to talk about baseball. It would be comical. You'll be like, wow, this guy has no Clue what he's talking about, which would be true. I will tell you a really quick story though. When I was a kid, my dad works security for the old Shea Stadium and the Yankees and Mets were in the 2000 subway series. And he was like, hey, there's a section of the stadium that they put handicap people in. There's no seats, but you could just stand there. So he brought me and my best friend at the time, a kid named Rob, who I haven't spoken to in a long time. But they brought, he brought us to the game and he just like parked us in the handicap section and said, here you are, you're at the World Series. It was game four, which was the one that they won on because I think, sorry, game five. It's game five because Yankees won four games and I think Mets won one that season. But it was the last game before the World Series though, and that's about the World Series. And we were there watching it live and we were like, we're not going to stay here. I mean, my dad wasn't watching us. We were just like, you know, 10 year olds being like, hey, we're in Shea Stadium. Let's just go wander and see if anyone stops us. Let's go see if there's any empty seats. As if there would be empty seats of the World Series. And back then, pre 9, 11, pre electronic everything there was physical tickets still. There was no one like there to scan. There was like more security. So we walked, we all the way up front, we found two empty seats. But it turns out that there were like people at the bathroom who came back and they were like, you could like just hang out with us and sit like, and like sit on our laps or whatever. I don't know what the hell we sat, we just hung out there though. And there was like an actor from like Melrose Place or whatever who was sitting next to us. I forget, but it was. I remember the incidents but not all the tiny details. I was only 10, but I did go to a World Series game, a final World Series game in the 2000 Subway Series. And it was, it was great. So, okay, that's my only story about baseball I have for you. Next question comes from Kevin. Kevin writes, I love numbers game. Listen to every episode. Thank you, Kevin. I appreciate that so much. He I also share my friends who are interested in particular subjects. I know, I know you said Mickey Kaus is a liberal, but almost nothing he says on Monday's podcast sounded liberal. Most was common. Seemed right of center. Kevin, thank you for listening. Yeah. Mickey's an old school liberal about a lot of things and immigration. He's has always been a thing that the left was. I wouldn't say always, but in the 90s, in the 80s, the left a lot of times was much better on securing the border than the right was because they were the party of like Cesar Chavez and they were wanting to reduce illegal labor so they wouldn't water, like, you know, bring down workers payments. And they were the party of the unions and the unions all hated illegal immigration. And then around the 2000s, early 2000s is when you saw a lot of these groups, like the environmental groups by the way, were all against illegal immigration because they didn't want mass overpopulation. They wanted to reduce immigration numbers, in fact. And in the 2000s, it became about racial identity. And so they were all down with the browning of America. They were all down with mass transition of the country from a majority white country to a non majority white country because the new immigrants were voting Democrat and they didn't care about what that meant for the working class. They were going to be the party of the educated bourgeois anyway. Yeah, so Mickey is a classical old liberal. There are a few of them out there, there are a few who still believe that. And it makes having a bad position on immigration as a liberal makes every one of your other positions, you know, not everyone, but almost every, almost every other immigrant position, like null and void. Like you can't be an environmentalist and want a hundred million people to move to the country. You can't, you get rid of, you know, well, people sleeping in parks with people sleeping in, you know, in our, in our wilderness. You have to build cities everywhere. You cannot be a liberal and support ending the gap between the, the poor and the, and the rich because you're importing poor people every year. That gap keeps growing. Immigration makes everything harder. Mass migration makes everything harder. And Democrats used to know it and it said they did, they forgot it. And Mickey is an old school liberal who hasn't. And God bless him, he's a great guest and a really good friend. So you should follow his work. It's really, really smart. He's a really smart guy. Anyway, that concludes this episode. I hope you enjoy it. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast. Wherever you get your podcast, give me a five star review. If you're being generous, it makes it much easier to find this podcast and I will speak to you guys on Thursday.

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