It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the 2026 Midterm Elections

Summary

The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show Episode: It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the 2026 Midterm Elections
Release Date: June 16, 2025
Host: Ryan Graduski
Guest: Armin Thomas, Writer at SplitTicket.org

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Introduction

In this episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, host Ryan Graduski delves deep into the numerical intricacies shaping the 2026 midterm elections. Joined by Armin Thomas, a seasoned writer from SplitTicket.org, the discussion navigates the challenging landscape both the Democratic and Republican parties face in securing Senate majorities.

Overview of the 2026 Senate Elections

Ryan begins by outlining the current battleground for the 2026 U.S. Senate elections. He highlights the strategic positions of both parties, emphasizing that Democrats must defend two Senate seats in traditionally Republican strongholds—Georgia and Michigan—alongside competitive races in New Hampshire, Minnesota, New Mexico, Virginia, and New Jersey. On the flip side, Republicans are primarily tasked with defending incumbent Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis in North Carolina, both states with significant Republican leanings.

"Democrats have a very slim road to the majority in the Senate," (02:50)

Historical Context of Party Majorities

The conversation transitions to a historical perspective, where Ryan underscores the rarity of supermajorities in the Senate. He notes that since 1921, Republicans haven’t held a filibuster-proof majority, whereas Democrats have maintained such a supermajority 15 times over the past century. This historical dominance has traditionally positioned the Senate as a predominantly Democratic institution, a status quo both parties are striving to disrupt.

"Since 1921, Democrats have held the super majority in the Senate 15 times or 30 years," (04:20)

Current Challenges for Democrats and Republicans

Armin Thomas elaborates on the evolving political dynamics, pointing out that both parties have become more ideologically rigid. This rigidity has reshaped the Senate's electoral map, shrinking the Democratic stronghold as they lose seats in states that were once more competitive. He emphasizes the increasing difficulty for Democrats to secure a majority, attributing it to their inability to maintain a broad coalition akin to the New Deal era.

"The coalition that every Democrat has basically counted on since FDR... is gone," (14:50)

Conversely, while Republicans have performed better in recent elections, they still fall short of achieving a supermajority. Despite winning additional seats in states like Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan in 2024, these gains are insufficient to reignite the Republican supermajority last seen over a century ago.

Guest Insights: Armin Thomas's Analysis

Armin provides a nuanced analysis of why Democrats are struggling to compete in regions they once dominated. He attributes this to several factors:

1. Ideological Shifts: The Democratic Party has shifted towards social and cultural liberalism, alienating traditional voters in more conservative regions.

2. Increased Political Awareness: Enhanced media coverage and political discourse have made voters more aware of candidates' ideological stances, reducing the chances of electing moderate Democrats in traditionally Republican areas.

3. Decline of the New Deal Coalition: The broad, diverse coalition that once underpinned Democratic success has fragmented, making it harder to secure widespread support.

"People are more aware of what ideology actually means and they're much more able to connect that to whether or not that lines up or goes against their own values," (16:00)

Armin also discusses the impact of polarization on candidate viability, noting that highly polarized candidates struggle to perform beyond expectations, a trend evidenced by the decline of incumbents who once outperformed their party's average expectations.

"Polarization has caused the ban of plausible outcomes to shrink for any given race," (19:53)

Implications for Future Elections

The duo examines the long-term implications of these trends. For Democrats, the path to the White House appears increasingly daunting, requiring them to reclaim not only traditional blue states but also swing states like Georgia and Nevada. This realignment suggests that without significant strategic shifts, Democrats may find it nearly impossible to secure a supermajority in the Senate or regain the White House.

For Republicans, the challenge lies in balancing ideological purity with electability. Candidates who are too closely aligned with extreme party factions risk alienating moderate voters in competitive states, while more moderate Republicans, like Susan Collins, remain rare exceptions able to bridge the partisan divide.

"Unless the Sun Belt switches in any capacity, everything kind of relies on Georgia," (25:00)

Conclusion

The episode wraps up with a reflection on the current state of American politics, highlighting the critical need for both parties to adapt their strategies in response to deepening polarization and shifting voter bases. Armin Thomas underscores the importance of candidate quality and ideological alignment in determining electoral success, suggesting that the 2026 midterms will serve as a pivotal moment in shaping the future balance of power in the Senate.

"Democrats are demanding they massively reform the Senate because they can no longer use the same winning playbook they've had for the last century," (28:00)

Notable Quotes

• Ryan Graduski (02:50): "Democrats have a very slim road to the majority in the Senate."
• Ryan Graduski (04:20): "Since 1921, Democrats have held the super majority in the Senate 15 times or 30 years."
• Armin Thomas (14:50): "The coalition that every Democrat has basically counted on since FDR... is gone."
• Armin Thomas (16:00): "People are more aware of what ideology actually means and they're much more able to connect that to whether or not that lines up or goes against their own values."
• Armin Thomas (19:53): "Polarization has caused the ban of plausible outcomes to shrink for any given race."
• Armin Thomas (25:00): "Unless the Sun Belt switches in any capacity, everything kind of relies on Georgia."
• Armin Thomas (28:00): "Democrats are demanding they massively reform the Senate because they can no longer use the same winning playbook they've had for the last century."

Final Thoughts

This episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show offers a comprehensive analysis of the impending 2026 midterm elections, underpinned by detailed numerical data and expert insights from Armin Thomas. Listeners gain a clear understanding of the daunting challenges both major parties face, the historical context that shapes current dynamics, and the future implications for American political power structures.

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For more insights and detailed analyses on electoral politics, visit split-ticket.org and follow SplitTicket on Twitter @splitticket_.

Transcript

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[Ryan Graduski]

Welcome back to a numbers game podcast with Ryan Graduski. I'm your host Happy Monday. I hope you all had a wonderful weekend. Right now in Washington, D.C. republicans and Democrats are very busy actively recruiting candidates for the 2026 U.S. senate election. Democrats have to defend two Senate seats in states that Trump won, Georgia and Michigan, as well as a handful of states that were closer than expected in places like New Hampshire, Minnesota, New Mexico, Virginia and New Jersey. Republicans, on the other hand, have to only defend one incumbent in a blue state. That's Susan Collins. In Maine. The only other Republican even running in a swing state is Thom Tillis, North Carolina. And remember, that's a state that Trump won three times. Every other state where Democrats have to try to compete in is basically a long shot. Iowa, Florida and Texas. Democrats have a very slim road to the majority in the Senate. And it's not just this year. See, and I want to go back in history for a second. I want to show you how difficult it is for Democrats to win majorities and large majorities in 2022. Republicans who really screwed up and they fell a Little Short in 2024. They nominated Bad candidates. They were caught flat foot on abortion. They were outspent and outgunned. And voters in Arizona fell in love with a crazy con artist named Carrie Lake two too many times. In 2022, Republicans lost Senate seats in five competitive races. Six if you count the special election in Georgia. Had they won those races, it would have taken the Republican up to 55 Senate seats. Now, in 2024, Republicans did do better. They happened to win four seats, but they came within just a few points of picking up four more in states that Trump won. Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan. Had they won those four, plus the five that they should have won in 2022, in a competitive year for Republicans, it would have given them a filler buster proof majority, something that they have not had. Republicans have not had a filibuster proof majority since 1921. Those are all states that are within reach. Those are all states that Republicans compete in for the presidency. These aren't long shot elections they'd have to win. Not like when they won the Senate seat in Massachusetts in 2009 or the Senate seats in Illinois or Colorado in 2010. Now, it's been 104 years since Republicans won a Senate supermajority. That's not the case for Democrats. Since 1921, Democrats have held the super majority in the Senate 15 times or 30 years. Thirty years out of a hundred, a third has not only had a Democrat majority, but a Democrat super majority. The Senate has essentially always been a Democrat institution because they were able to win with a grand coalition of Democrats. They had prairie populists, they had Southern conservatives, they had New Deal Democrats in the north east, progressives in the Northwest and in the Midwest. But as Democrats and Republicans, to be fair, both became more ideologically rigid. Their electoral map in the Senate and the White House changed. And for Democrats, it became smaller and smaller. In 2024, it was the very first time in 100 years that Republicans controlled every Senate seat in a state where the Republican presidential nominee won by double digits. That's 24 states and 48 Senate seats. The other five that Republicans hold, four in swing seats, one in Pennsylvania, one in Wisconsin, two in North Carolina, and one in the blue state of Maine with Susan Collins. But as long as Republicans hold on to every state that Trump won by double digits, it means that their basement number is 48. For a comparison to Democrats. If they just hold on to every Senate seat in the state that Harris won by double digits, they only have 26. That's why Democrats are demanding they massively reform the Senate, because they can no longer use the same winning playbook they've had for the last century. Think about it. Not many Democrats were very upset that north and South Dakota had as many Senators as California when most of those senators from the Dakotas were Democrats. Which Democrats, by the way, controlled most of the U.S. senate seats in the Dakotas from 1988 to 2010. Democrats are also facing a similar structure to the Electoral College in 2032. Going into the future, looking forward. Even before COVID Democrats were seeing an exodus from blue states. But the pandemic exacerbated those trends substantially. The Brennan center, which is a fairly left wing organization, although they're nonpartisan, but they have a left leaning to them. They estimate that states that voted for Kamala Harris are set to lose 10 electoral college seats, while Republican states, states that voted for Trump are set to gain 10. Most of those are concentrated in the South. States like Texas and Florida are going to gain four each, while California and New York are going to lose six. Four from California and two from New York. Think of this. Had Harris won all the blue wall states, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. She did win Minnesota. I don't know why I said that, but Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, she would have won the presidency. 270 to 268 Electoral College votes. Now, take away the 12 Electoral College votes, the 10 that the Democrat states are losing, and the two that the Midwestern states that are swing states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are said to lose and Even had she won the blue wall, she would have still lost the presidency. 280 seats to electoral college votes to 258. That's with the entire blue wall enacted. That means for the next decade, for the 2030 decade, Democrats have to recapture the White House by basically winning the entire blue wall plus Georgia and Nevada. It becomes very, very difficult. Maybe that will happen, but it becomes much harder where essentially they can't rest on their laurels and, and the institutional support among these historic blue states. And it means unless this the, the sun belts switches in any capacity which it's moving to the right with the exception of Georgia, everything kind of relies on Georgia. For Democrats, there's really no path to the White House and there's certainly no path to a super majority in the Senate. The coalition that every Democrat has basically counted on since FDR all the way to Obama and even Joe Biden to a certain extent, is gone. 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[Ryan Graduski]

This week is Armin Thomas. He is a writer for a great website called splitticket.org, split hyphen ticket.org great website on electoral politics. They had a super interesting article called the Real Reason Democrats can't compete for 60 Senate seats. Armin, thank you for being here.

[Riley Herbst]

Thank you, Ryan. It's a pleasure to be on the podcast with you.

[Ryan Graduski]

So Armin, now you look like a fairly young guy. When I was growing up, Democrats would regularly have seats in the Dakotas, West Virginia. Obviously there were prairie populace and Midwestern Democrats that would would be winning in states that went for Ronald Reagan and for George W. Bush. That doesn't happen with the exception of Susan Collins. Right. Tell us why Democrats can't compete in places they used to anymore.

[Riley Herbst]

Well, I think there's a couple of factors. The first is simply the ideological positioning of the Democratic Party ever since the, you know, the decline of the New Deal coalition in, you know, the 60s, 70s, 80s, you know, the Democrats have been searching for a solution for who is someone who can bring together a winning, you know, array of voters. And in the 80s, Democrats got their clocks cleaned, you know, every election that happened. And in the 1990s, you know, Bill Clinton and the Democratic Legislative Council made the decision to kind of triangulate and moderate and focus on winning, you know, socially liberal suburbanites and, you know, educated white people. And, you know, you still saw enough of that more conservative, rural, you know, southern Dixie heritage that we used to be in the Democratic Party because Bill Clinton was a southerner from Hope, Arkansas. However, all of this really started to take its current shape in 2000 when Al Gore was the nominee, right? He was a senator from Tennessee, he was Clinton's vice president. But he very much, you know, cast off a lot of his old Southern heritage and, you know, his record that he ran on in favor of, you know, big government, you know, northeastern style liberalism. And that's kind of where the party has been for the past 20 odd years, right? And you know, West Virginia, which was a stalwart of the Democratic Party, voted against Gore in 2000. You know, if he didn't, you know, take policies that alienated his voters, he would have been president. And, you know, every, at every juncture, the party has had an opportunity to make decisions about what ideology it wants. The side that has won out has always been the social, cultural, liberalism, you know, based in race and identity. Right? Obama beat Hillary in 2008, Hillary beat Bernie in 2016.

[Ryan Graduski]

Right.

[Riley Herbst]

And so what that leads to is just, you know, this is where the party is. And people who have voted Democratic their whole lives, they were Democrats because it stood for one thing, right? Whether that's faith or family, a country or the unions, it doesn't stand for that anymore. And, you know, so this kind of sorting is bound to happen. I think related to it is also the rise of, you know, people just being more politically aware of what, you know, issues are actually going on. Right. In the 80s, it was only really in the 90s that talk radio and cable news and Fox and all of this, you know, all of these things to keep people politically plugged in really became a huge thing, right? And in the 1990s, you saw the first wave of, you know, working class, you know, for lack of a better word, non cosmopolitan Democrats fall right in the south, in the interior, West. You Fast forward to 2010, you see a lot more of that happen. And now especially you're seeing a lot of those same shifts happen with non white Americans too. And so I think it's just a combination of people becoming more aware of what the parties actually stand for. Right? Because in the old days you could vote liberally, but because there was a lack, you know, there was an information gap, people didn't know about it as much because people don't pay as much attention.

[Ryan Graduski]

Well, There also used to be more. There used to be Democrats that really fit the uniform of their state. Right.

[Riley Herbst]

Yeah.

[Ryan Graduski]

And in a lot of ways, that is rare now.

[Riley Herbst]

Yeah. And so that's. That's what I'm going to get into as well, which is that, you know, we talked about the choices that the parties have made ideologically. We've talked about the fact that people are just more aware of what's going on. Right. You know, people like Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan, who were senators from the Dakotas, were not that conservative, you know, relative that. I mean, they were more conservative, but not that conservative, but they were still well to the left of the median Republicans on a lot of issues. It just matters now that a lot of people realize, hey, I can actually see that this Democrat, even if he's a North Dakota Democrat, is liberal and I don't like that liberalism. And then the third thing is, right, with respect to education, right up until about 2020, the divide was very much urban versus rural, white versus non white. Right. That was a pretty useful heuristic for understanding where the parties were going. And it's why up until about 2020, Democrats had a lot of hope for places like Florida, for places like Texas, you know, for, you know, even the idea that, you know, the rising tide of diversity was gonna lift them up and, you know, kind of cause Republicans to go extinct in their current.

[Ryan Graduski]

That was the Obama coalition.

[Riley Herbst]

Right. And well, now, again, because now what we're seeing is the choices that Democrats have made coalitionally have been to prioritize college educated white Democrats, you know, over everyone else. Right. That's the big cleavage in Democratic politics today. You're seeing it play out in the New York mayoral race as well. You know, that's why you're seeing the coalitions that you saw now, Right. If you went back to 2012 or 2016 and told someone, hey, you know, Texas is going to go, you know, shift, you know, eight points to the right, while Ohio basically barely budges relative to the national environment. You'd be told, you know, everyone would think you're crazy. Now when you talk about Democrats who fit their state, that was a lot more common. Right. And I think that has to do with, you know, primarily point two of what I talked about with respect to the awareness piece. Right. People, activists, the groups, as, you know, everybody on Twitter likes to talk about, they have a lot more influence in terms of shaping a national discourse. Right. A Democrat from Alabama in the 1980s or the 1990s could realistically get away with, you Know, being pro life, pro gun, you know, anti abortion, anti gay, I mean, transgender stuff was not really a thing back then as a political issue. But you would assume that if it was Alabama, Democrats that could win statewide would not support that in any meaningful way. However, it's a combination of the fact that the Democratic Party's organizing muscle is often rented out to ideologically captured groups that do it. And so they have an incentive in making sure that what they want is featured. Right?

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. Can I ask you one thing about that? As you write, you guys write this on splitticket.org polarization has caused the ban of plausible outcomes to shrink for any given race. 14 of the 15 elections with candidates affect of 20 plus points, those are, those are people who outran their party by 20 points. Happened in 2016 and 2018, and the remaining one happened in 2020. Since then, no election has seen a candidate quality yield a 20 point electoral effect. And basically what you guys say is that candidate quality, a candidate who really matched their state, really did matter where you could outrun the presidential candidate by 20 points. You guys right in 2016 that there were 59 candidates. I'm guessing this is House and Senate. 59 candidates that outran their cat. They outran their, their party's presidential. I mean, by 59, 50 or 59 by 10 points.

[Riley Herbst]

Not the presidential lean, but the expected result because. Oh, sorry, expected result placement score accounts for down ballot lag and all.

[Ryan Graduski]

Okay, my missing out, 59 out round. Expect results by 10 points, 24 by 15 points and 8 by 20 points. By 2024, that number had shrunk from 59 to 13 from, for 10 points or above 24 to 3 by 15 points and 8 to 0 for 20 points. Does can equality really matter at all?

[Riley Herbst]

So I think it absolutely does. I think there's two reasons why this decline has happened. The first is just the nationalization of everything. Right in the age of the Internet, in the age of social media. Right. To more extent, you know, to a greater extent for the Democrats, but even for Republicans too as well, you can't really run as independent of a campaign anymore because everybody has the Internet. You know, if you're a Democrat running with a D next to your name and you're trying to flip a seat in, you know, I don't know, Wyoming, you're gonna have, you are gonna still be tarred with the same brush as the insurrection rioters in Los Angeles right now. You know, I don't even know if they're Democrats or not, but everyone is associating them with the Democratic Party. Right. And the same is true for Republicans, right? Because look at someone like Larry Hogan, right? Objectively, a very, very, you know, qualified public servant who's won elections in Maryland before. But people associate him with Mitch McConnell and Ted Cruz and other Republicans. And the median voter in Maryland is a dyed in the wool liberal Democrat. And even if they liked his low tax policy, they're just not going to vote for someone who will vote for Republicans.

[Ryan Graduski]

And he did very well. I mean, he outperformed substantially.

[Riley Herbst]

So. Right. Yeah, he still was a great candidate. The problem is the, if he ran in 2000, he probably would have won the election because polarization was just not as baked in. So that's the first thing, Right. It's just people are more aware of what ideology actually means and they're much more able to connect that to whether or not that lines up or goes against, against their own values. That's the first. The second is that because of the incentive structure for the parties and who's going to fund them, the types of people who would be able to generate those kinds of over performances are less likely to actually be drawn to run. Right. I'll start with the Republicans. Right. If you look in 2016 on the massive over performer side, right. It was, you know, John Catco, Tom Price, you know, Bob Dole. Right. These are all very moderate Republicans whose whole shtick was, you know, I am a Republican, but I am, you know, independent and I have my own brand which is just, you know, I'm not all about doing whatever Donald Trump wants. Right. Like it or not, that's what the GOP is, is whatever Donald Trump wants, this is what everyone is going to support. Right. The only Republican today who really still has that kind of brand around is Susan Collins. Right.

[Ryan Graduski]

What about Thomas Massie?

[Riley Herbst]

I mean, I can check Thomas. So Thomas Massie is independent from Trump, but from the other direction, which.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, he's much more right wing. Yeah. No, okay. Yeah, No, I agree. Susan Collins does have the brand of being at Susan. She marches the beat of her own drum and I think that she is unique. I think Sinema would have been there if she could have held on, but she couldn't.

[Riley Herbst]

Yeah. Right. And you see it more with Democrats just because the nature of the way, the electoral map with the Senate bias and all is, is that Democrats have to find more right wing people relative to the party who run to be competitive. Right. But still you. Just because of how ideologically polarized everything's gotten, you wouldn't Be able to get pro oil, pro gun, anti abortion, anti gay, anti trans Democrats, you know, elected. Right. I don't know if you remember, there was a guy called Charles Graham from north Carolina. He was a lumbee Indian state representative from North Carolina. He was a democrat. And the lumbies are conservative leaning group of voters. And historically they've been very, very democratic. But now because of Trump, they've gone towards the republicans. And Graham was their state representative for a long time. And when he was in the house, in the state house, when they were doing all of the bathroom bill stuff, I think he was one of two democrats to vote for that anti transgender bill. Naturally, as you would expect, you know, when you're trying to get national donor money. He had to repudiate a lot of those votes that he took which were representing, you know, the authentic beliefs of his community. And so that just goes to show you that, you know, there are some things that no matter where it is, the democratic party, I mean, both parties have things that you that they just will not compromise on.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah.

[Riley Herbst]

For the republicans it's fealty to Donald Trump, and for democrats it's, you know.

[Ryan Graduski]

Fealty to transing children. I'm just joking. I'm just kidding about that. Yeah, I actually said. But the main, I said feel towards transing children.

[Riley Herbst]

But the reason for being in the democratic party is that democrats view themselves as the party that will expand civil rights. Right, right. Since 1964 and all that, when they started to lose the white vote. That's kind of been. The whole thing is we're gonna expand the moral arc of the universe bends towards justice. We. Right, you talk when you. You see this, deb. Right. Whenever there's people who say we need to moderate on some social and cultural issues, the go to response is who do you want to throw under the bus? Right. Because the idea that you can make a strategic retreat on anything is viewed as retreating from civil rights.

[Ryan Graduski]

That's a great point. That's a.

[Riley Herbst]

Retreating on civil rights is anathema to, you know, the religion of politics. That is how democrats view everything.

[Ryan Graduski]

That's very well put. And I actually want to go up one little history lesson. Before that, there was a guy named Bob Connolly and he ran for the u. S. Senate in south Carolina against Lindsey Graham in 2008. South Carolina was not as deep a red State in 2008 as it is today. But Bob connolly was a conservative southern democrat, more right wing than he was more right wing than Lindsey Graham and the democratic party of South Carolina endorsed Lindsey Graham for reelection over the conservative Democrat. But I want to go into the article back for one second. You mentioned something that was really interesting. Democrats since 2016 have done a better job with quality flips. They've won more quality flips than Republicans have. What is it about Republicans? Where. And if you look at a map, right, of super Republican states, states that Trump won by 10 points or greater, there are 24 states. They all have two Republican senators. For the first time in 100 years, that every state that elected the Republican nominee for president by double digits has two Republican senators. That's 48. There's only 53 Republicans. So in all the swing states, which there are a number, they've only elected five. Why are Republicans. And to come from North Carolina, which should vote regularly, Republican for a long time now, why do Republicans have such a hard time winning Senate, getting Senate seats in Nevada or Michigan or New Hampshire or all these other places that are purple states, and Democrats almost can typically rely on that.

[Riley Herbst]

Well, I mean, I think it comes down to a few things. The first is incumbency. Right. So a lot of. There's just a lot of Democratic incumbents. And while candidate quality is not as much as it used to be, it's still something. Right. So it might not get a Democrat like John Tester to win a state that Trump won by 16 points, but a state like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, that Trump won by two. You know, if you have an incumbent that's well liked. Yeah. That is the difference between, you know, winning and losing for a Democrat, that's the first. The second is that, well, I mean, you know, Laksha has said this a little bit in stronger terms than me, but frankly, a lot of Republican candidates come across as crazy people. If you look at the WAR scores, voters are practically begging.

[Ryan Graduski]

What is a WAR score?

[Riley Herbst]

Explains the win above replacement.

[Ryan Graduski]

Okay, Right.

[Riley Herbst]

Voters are practically begging for Republicans to nominate people that demonstrate some amount of independence and likability. Right. When they do, it's basically impossible for them to lose. Right. If you look at John Catko In.

[Ryan Graduski]

20, John Caca was a congressman from.

[Riley Herbst]

New York, by the way, from the Syracuse area.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah.

[Riley Herbst]

In 2016, he did 22 points better than the average Republican would have been expected to. And Democrats tried for years to beat him and they never did. Right. It's a similar effect with Susan Collins. Right. On paper, it's a very blue district. Right.

[Ryan Graduski]

State.

[Riley Herbst]

She's a blue state. District, state. Right. And the median voter is a Democrat. But if they like you for reasons that go beyond Ideology, because at that point you're voting against what you believe values wise. You're saying, I think this is a good person. I'm going to vote for them. It is very difficult, it's very difficult to find someone who can break that permission structure. Right. And it's why someone like Larry Hogan did really, really, really well. Like, if you go down the list of, you know, Right. Republican over performances for war. Right. There's plenty of Republicans who are like, you know, just, you know, bog standard. I support Trump, but I'm gonna be kind of quiet about it. Republicans, there are plenty of those who do well. But you would be very, very hard pressed to talk about somebody like Matt Gaetz or Marjorie Taylor Greene or, you know, the people that a lot of people, you know, identify as avatars of the Republican movement who are gonna get more votes because of their, you know, for lack of a better word, slavish devotion to Donald Trump. And these are the types of people that increasingly get selected for in Republican primaries. What about.

[Ryan Graduski]

So name for a name for people, some Democrats and some Republicans who besides Susan Collins, who are just extraordinarily likable to the point that they can vastly outperform their district. Someone who comes to my mind is like Brian Fitzpatrick, who represents Bucks County, Pennsylvania, easily overperforms Trump by 15 points in every election.

[Riley Herbst]

Yeah. So Fitzpatrick is a good example because Fitzpatric is not even particularly moderate. Right. Like he's.

[Ryan Graduski]

Nah, he's pretty liberal to my standards. He's very liberal. But okay. Yeah.

[Riley Herbst]

Or at the very least he's not Susan Collins. Like he represents a Trump one district now at at least on policy, he votes mostly the same way. And even if he hashes out some moderate versus conservative policy differences in committee. Right. He certainly. No, he certainly know Larry Hogan. At least I would characterize him that way. And just because of the fact that his whole brand. He's had a brand in the area, which is that, you know, I represent a historically blue leading district. I'm not gonna just come out loud and say I support Donald Trump on everything, you know, and he's been able to do that in a way that's not off putting and not ideological. That makes things very easy for, you know, Democrats especially not, you know, dyed in the wool on Twitter, blue sky Democrats. Right. To say, oh yeah, like I'm going to vote for Biden, but you know, I'm an independent guy. This Fitzpatrick dude seems like he's got some smart ideas. I'll send him back to D.C. right. So Fitzpatrick is Another person like that. Let's see. I actually have the database right here. We can look.

[Ryan Graduski]

Okay, so name like name the top three Republicans and top three Democrats, Susan Collins and Brian Fitzpatrick aside.

[Riley Herbst]

So from the 2024 cycle, let's, let's actually look at this because John Hoven won insanely large margins.

[Ryan Graduski]

He's the senator from North Dakota, former governor, then turned senator from North Dakota.

[Riley Herbst]

Ilhan Omar also is terrible as a candidate for some reason, it's unclear.

[Ryan Graduski]

She underperforms. Elizabeth Warren is a terrible candidate. She underperforms. If they were not, you know the funny thing is, and this is the frustrating thing for Republicans while you look it up, Republicans have these deep red states like Wyoming, North Dakota where they elect these very moderate middle or Republicans and then Democrats will have these blue, deep blue states where they will have foaming at the mouth progressives and will run our most right wing candidate in swing states and lose and they'll run moderates and swing states and win. And that's always been the frustration Republicans is why aren't conservatives actually representing Republican super conservative districts?

[Riley Herbst]

Well that's fair. Okay, so I got your answer here. Okay, so for 2024, leaving aside Larry Hogan and Ilhan Omar and Pramila Jaipal and all the other, you're in a really blue district but you're, you know, you're a communist so you're going to underperform by like 20 points. Right. Okay, so Michael Baumgartner from Washington, right.

[Ryan Graduski]

You know, a name on the mouth, on the tip of everyone's mouth. Michael Baumgartner.

[Riley Herbst]

I don't know much about him, but.

[Ryan Graduski]

I wouldn't know him if I hit him with a car.

[Riley Herbst]

I, I, I, I don't know much about him, but I remember when he won he was very much seen as right wing but not, you know, like a die hard far right ideologue. Right. He did, what was it like nine points better than average. Brian Fitzpatrick, nine points better than average. Right. If you look at Mike Turner, nine points better than average.

[Ryan Graduski]

He's from Ohio and Mike Turner is.

[Riley Herbst]

Someone who's definitely like known for being a little bit more moderate than the median republic. You know Jamie Herrera Butler as well back when she was in Congress, Washington state, moderate. Daniel House, not a moderate. He just decided to impeach Trump and.

[Ryan Graduski]

He'S a, he's, you and I have very different terms the word moderate. But it's okay.

[Riley Herbst]

At the very least, Dan Newhouse is what would have been before the Trump era. He would have been considered a concern Typical Republican.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah. What? Okay, so who are some Democrats who very well overperform expectations.

[Riley Herbst]

Okay, well, let's go through this. So Democrats. Okay. Yeah. This list, I. Okay, so Joe Manchin, obviously.

[Ryan Graduski]

Obviously. Yeah.

[Riley Herbst]

Right. Okay. Doug Jones. Well, that's because he ran against Roy Moore.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah.

[Riley Herbst]

So Colin Peterson even when he lost in 2020. There's the sugar beet farmer from Minnesota.

[Ryan Graduski]

Right.

[Riley Herbst]

Then let's see in terms of 2024.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah, I'm talking about the last election.

[Riley Herbst]

Oh yeah. Dan Osborne. Right. Not really a Democrat.

[Ryan Graduski]

Oh, he's in Nebraska. He ran as an independent with the Democrat support in Nebraska. Okay.

[Riley Herbst]

Yeah. So not really a Democrat, but everybody got the message that he's not a Republican, he's anti immigration. He's not exactly a woke guy because he's basically told the Nebraska Democratic Party that you know, to f off. Right. You know, so that, that, that was the highest one for Demps. Then if we look here, Ed Case in Hawaii, who a lot of progressives really dislike, one, because he's a white man in a majority Asian district. That does not go over well with them. But two, because he's very much a blue dog. Right. He's very, he's a very old school blue dog Democrat.

[Ryan Graduski]

He voted for, I think the Lake and Riley act and other stuff. He does have some surprising votes. Ed Case, I think he voted for that one. But he votes for some legislation like.

[Riley Herbst]

Wow, he's a very moderate person relative to the area he represents. Brian Shat's in Hawaii, but that was 22.

[Ryan Graduski]

Let's see, he's a senator for Hawaii.

[Riley Herbst]

Okay. So yeah, Jill Takuda from Hawaii as well. I don't know what's in the water in Hawaii.

[Ryan Graduski]

I don't. Yeah, I could and they had told me maybe it's the heat, I don't know. So that's in. That's all very interesting stuff. So Hawaii elected a lot of people that were more moderate than, than the party then they would have represent otherwise. And, and for Republicans, it seems like it's. I mean Hawaii is a very blue state, although it's moved to the right substantially.

[Riley Herbst]

But to be fair, there's some more. The Hawaii is like four people. But like Stephen lynch is here. Right. In Massachusetts.

[Ryan Graduski]

Yeah.

[Riley Herbst]

Old school, Irish, white guy, Democrat that, you know, the progressive wing in Boston has been trying to get rid of for years. Let's see. Cleo Fields. Right. You know, establishment.

[Ryan Graduski]

I don't even know who she is. Who is she?

[Riley Herbst]

He is a, he is a. He was in Congress in one of Those majority black districts in Louisiana, you know, they redrew. So he came back to run. He's very much, you know, a mainstream, middle of the road, you know, black candidate with, you know, established in the area. John tested 10 points better than average this. This cycle. Right. Angus King is an independent, so that one doesn't. It's kind of weird. Okay, yeah. Mary Peltola, she lost, but she was nine points better than average.

[Ryan Graduski]

She represented Alaska, the whole state of Alaska, in the House Representatives. And wait, one more, one more for the road.

[Riley Herbst]

Are we talking incumbents or just people in general?

[Ryan Graduski]

Just people in general.

[Riley Herbst]

Oh, well, then Lauren Boebert, Scott Perry, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, those are all.

[Ryan Graduski]

People who did terrible. I mean, Lauren Boebert almost lost in 2010. Scott Perry, I can I tell you. I'll tell you something really interesting. I never said this on my podcast, but I'll give you guys a little scoop. I was in a meeting with some NRCC and RNC people. This is a few months ago. And there is this one congressman, I forget who it is, in Pennsylvania. He represents, like an R +40 seat, like a super Republican seat. And he's allegedly considering running for governor so he would have to vacate the seat.

[Riley Herbst]

What, Dan Muser?

[Ryan Graduski]

Yes. Dan Muser is considering leaving the seat to go run for governor?

[Riley Herbst]

Yeah.

[Ryan Graduski]

And I said to the NRCC and the rnc, ask Perry to switch districts. Ask him to run and the other side of the state where he won't be able to lose.

[Riley Herbst]

Does he live there?

[Ryan Graduski]

Does. Does anyone live anywhere in Congress? They all live in Washington.

[Riley Herbst]

Okay, see, I would say that, but remember the last time Republicans tried running someone in Pennsylvania who didn't live in.

[Ryan Graduski]

The place he lives in the state of Pennsylvania, it's the House of Representatives. It's not. He doesn't. He's. He lives in Pennsylvania. Anyway, I pressed very heavily. Lauren Boebert moved across the state of Colorado to run for reelection. I pressed very heavily, like eight points.

[Riley Herbst]

Worse than she should have.

[Ryan Graduski]

But she did. But she won because she wouldn't have won probably in her old district. But I insisted, like, hey, do that and have him run in a seat that he can't lose. I mean, any glass of water with an R behind their name is going to win and hit that kind of a seat. The Muse seat and the Perry seat. It's very likely. It's Harrisburg area. It's getting bluer and bluer and bluer. And I said, you know, get Scott Perry to switch seats. And he apparently, apparently they.

[Riley Herbst]

Harry was not Scott Perry. He would not have any problem winning it. You could put a replacement Republican in. They'd probably.

[Ryan Graduski]

Right, but they probably would win. Right, right. But Scott Perry's too. Anyway, the point is I said this to them. Someone relayed the message to Perry that this was an idea and Perry said F off. I've always won the seat and I always will. I think he won by half a point last time.

[Riley Herbst]

Very.

[Ryan Graduski]

It was very, very close. We'll see. So, anyway, okay, Armin, you've been a fantastic guest. We have to get going where people read your stuff and read more about Split Ticket.

[Riley Herbst]

So obviously, you know we're on Twitter. I think it's at splitticket Underscore. Our website is split-ticket.org and you know, we have articles that come out in the Washington Post. You know, we have stuff in the New York Times, you know, so, you know, we're.

[Ryan Graduski]

And you're slumming it with me today, so it's really exciting.

[Riley Herbst]

No, I love talking honestly.

[Ryan Graduski]

This has been so great. Everyone. Check out Split Ticket for more stuff. Thank you so much for coming on my podcast.

[Riley Herbst]

Of course. Hope to be back soon.

[Ryan Graduski]

You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Graduski. We'll be right back.

[Armin Thomas]

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[Riley Herbst]

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[Armin Thomas]

Cleans like.

[Riley Herbst]

Clorox and feels like yay.

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[Ryan Graduski]

Now for the Ask Me Anything segment of the show. I love this segment. I love getting questions from you guys. Email me if you have a question for me to answer. Ryanumbersgame podcast.com that's ryanumbers plural numbers game podcast.com okay, this one comes from Mike Ryan. I have a suggestion for a future podcast. One of the most interesting things you have mentioned on your past podcast is your feeling that Elon was not in Doge to save money, but alternative motives Playing off of this why not do a podcast on Doge's successes, the real numbers, its future and who will lead it going forward? For instance, what was the real deal with Vivek leaving? What were Elon's real motives? I don't want to get you banned from X. That's very nice of you Mike. And what about all the high level people Elon brought into Doge with big balls continuing to work for the government? How can we get Doge or the Doge principles integrated in our government process permanently? Thank you Mike for that wonderful question. I don't know if it warrants an entire show episode. So here's the thing with the numbers. The problem with trying to figure out the numbers of how much Doge has saved is a lot of it is estimates that Elon has come out with with very little hard numbers attached to it. So he has said he saved on $150 billion. Other estimates have it at $39 billion. And they're already doing some of the rehiring. So I don't, I can't, it's hard for me to put an exact figure on what they actually saved in as far as, you know, pen to paper. Let's look at the books and really see a deep dive into, you know, what the, what the act were. I think the problem with Doge has always been people are looking for easy, painless solutions to very complex and sometimes painful problems. And I was on the Megan McCain Show a couple of, maybe a week ago and someone came on and his nonprofit was being cut in funding and his wife worked for Head Start and yada, yada, yada, and he kept saying, these are free services. I said these are taxpayer funded services and should they receive some cuts? Probably, if we're concerned with our budget deficit and our debt, as we should be, because you go back to 2000, when I was a kid and we had a balanced budget, they were saying we're going to pay down the entire debt by 2012. That's what they said in 2000. That's inconceivable now. Inconceivable. But if we're going to have a hard conversation which will have to involve Democrats as well, because you can't get through this with just a one party vote and you sit there and say, hey, how do we balance the budget and reduce the deficit, ultimately eliminate the deficit over a 10 year period that will involve Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and the military and tax increases, like you're going to have to go all in on everything. Everyone will have to hold a hand together and say, I'll give you this if you give me that. What's something you're willing to give into? And maybe it won't start with a $10 trillion cut. Maybe it starts with a $500 billion cut. Maybe it starts with just saving Social Security, which is really not that hard to do to reform Social Security. It's a fairly easy, simple plan. Medicaid and Medicare get very, very difficult. The military is very difficult. Servicing the debt is very difficult. It's hard to work these other parts of the budget out. But I mean, listen, Donald Trump put on an offer a couple times, closed the carried Interest loophole, increased taxes for people who make $5 million a year. That's probably very, and I know it's not, it's not probably that is politically popular. Saving Social Security, if they frame it in a certain way that's bipartisan, would be probably very popular. Looking into the waste, fraud and abuse from the Pentagon would be popular. Although it's hard because a lot of congressional districts have servicing the Pentagon as part of their economy. But still it's very, very important. Medicare and Medicaid gets really, really, really tough. Really, really, really difficult. And I think that cutting illegal aliens off to Medicare and Medicaid is a good start to save or saving the programs. But yeah, I mean you have to put everything on the table and we're still not willing to have that conversation. And the only way you incorporate Doge into the government is you either change Congress or you get Congress to have serious players or you pass single individual bills which allow a presidential line minded veto and you make a president like Trump who is not running for reelection unless they change the Constitution, make him the bad guy because Congress hates doing their job and have him do line items to reduce spending one way or the other. But they're not do Congress is not taking this job seriously. For Republicans, Doge was a branding issue and, and that was it. As far as Vivek, Vivek is just annoying. No one likes Vivek. I'm absolutely. No one can stand him. He's a complete. I already said con artist once in the show, but allegedly con artist. Look up to his. Look up, look up his mother's connection to his health care company and how she helped him make a billion dollar business. You will be very surprised. Look at how he moved his companies to Texas before announcing that he was running for governor of Ohio. He's just, oh, he's horrible. But I mean basically, lo and behold, what I had heard and this is alleged was that Vivek was creating his own plans for Doge out of Ohio. He had his own Ohio team separate from the Elon team. Elon basically caught wind of all this and was just very dismissive over Elon, over Vivek and thought of him as a joke, which is true. He is and said to him something to the effect of like you can't run for office. If you're using this to run for office, then just run for office and just like get out of our hair. And then he ran to the governor or his team ran to the governor asking for the appointment in the US Senate which he did not receive. And so he's now running for governor of the state. I wish the state of Ohio best because he's very likely the Republican nominee, unfortunately. But that's what happened. I mean, Vivek war on everybody that was around him because that's who Vivek Ramaswamy is. He wears on everybody. So I think that was all your questions. I hope it was. If there's information on numbers, I could really bring you once it comes out. But as of right now, everything with Doge is very complicated because the numbers are a lot of he said, he said in the White House right now. So when there's hard numbers, I'll give it to you. And as far as wanting to reduce spending and reduce the debt and reduce balance the budget, it's all Congress, baby. Gotta get Congress get more serious about it. Anyway, thank you again for listening to this Monday episode of my podcast. Follow me on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast. Wherever you get your podcast. If you like this show and the work that I'm doing, please give me a five star review and give me a like or a follow. It really means a lot to get the show out there. I appreciate you all. I'll be back on Thursday. Thank you.

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[Ryan Graduski]

And feels like hmm.

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